September 26, 2025 • 7 mins
Despite being the third down day in a row stocks are still near record highs. Tim explaiins how that's possible.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
It's Friday, Fred, I'm fantastic and it's not my fault.
Things are going a wire.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Now I'm blaming you.
Speaker 3 (00:07):
Anyhow, nothing bad happens until I answer the phone. So
all right, according to the according to the headline, we
stumbled you again for a third straight day, and for
the SMP it was actually it's only three days, but
it was their longest losing streak. But we're still very
close to the record highs, so it's not really anything
(00:30):
to worry about.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
So give us the rundown on what's going on here.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
It was like a little mini speed bump. But this
is when we've talked about Fred with good news is
bad news and bad news is good news. Uh huh.
Let's look at what happened yesterday. Initial jobless claims expecting
two hundred and thirty five. Is people for filing for unemployment?
Oh no, it came into two hundred and eighteen, So
less people are filing. It's a good thing. The GDP
(00:57):
third estimate for quarter two it was at three point
three They think it grew by three point eight percent.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
What the economy is going. That's a good thing. Inventories
are down, bill were good orders, they were expecting a
negative point four. It came in positive two point nine.
Before ordering you know, big items, washer dryers, things like that.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
So and then at ten o'clock we had existing home
sales down. Remember we had new home sales.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
On Wednesday that was up. Well, they were expecting three
point ninety six million. It came into four million. Good news.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
But would that do to the markets? Well, this is
where the bad news part happens. They think the economy's.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
Growing, well, that Defen's not going to have to cut
interest rates. Oh boy, Well, the Dow was down one
hundred and thirty seven points, which is point three eight
of a percent. Now we know it's gone down a
little bit. For a five day, it's only down point
four to two of a percent. That's the p five
hundred off thirty three points, which is a half percent.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
The five day is.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Point four one negative, and the Nasdaq off one hundred
and thirteen points, which is a half percent.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's five days, it's negative point three eight.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
But if we look at all year today, they're all
the positive. So you know, things are things are percolating.
I said that yesterday. I still think that's happening, but
we'll see.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
So here's my problem, well not really a problem for
most people. When the estimates came out from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, well just a few months ago, and
the president fired the guy who was doing the statistics
and he you know, he ran it and raved that
(02:41):
you can't trust him.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Somebody's manipulating them and everything else.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
And now one of the first things that you gave
today was the I forget I think you said it
was the third revised estimated.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
There's a third revived estimate.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Now for you, that makes sense because you deal with
this every day. But for somebody listening who looks at
that and goes, why do they keep revising them? Why
is this the third revision? How can I possibly trust
any numbers that are coming from the government agencies. So
what do you tell people if they come in and
(03:23):
talk to you and say, I don't know, how do
you trust these numbers? They're always revising them.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Oh, Fred, when I'm cooking and I'm cooking a hamburger,
I want to make sure it's done, and I'll probably
check it three tens like my meat.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Well cook. Now everyone's probably going, oh no, I got
to have it this way. There the third time usually
is the best because you had enough time to get
all the data in. So I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
Feel more comfortable with the third estimate than i am
the first one.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
That is an excellent analogy.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Yes, that's an excellent analogy because that's exactly what they do.
The first estimate. Here's what we have. Then they gather
a whole bunch more information. They say, oh man, let's
add this to that. And then they add some more information,
and they get into a little other little you know,
to talk to more people, get more numbers, add those
numbers to the first set of numbers, and pretty soon
(04:13):
by the time you get your third revision, that's the
actual situation, which is a good thing.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
You know, if it's negative or however it comes out.
We really need to know the honest truths because we're
looking at all this and making decisions in the economy wise,
market wise. So yes, that's a good, good, good number
to look at. But again, credit's the government. Don't don't
don't put me on my on the soapbox. I'll go off.
It's like we believe anything. But you got to take
(04:44):
the data and go with it.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
You know, were there any were there any losers and
winners yesterday that I saw that Oracle gave back a
little over five percent.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
What about the rest.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Yeah, Oracle did give give back five point six percent.
But here's j bill. Uh they fell six point seven percent.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
After having strong profits, good revenues, and you know they
were even forecasting good and they still go down by
six point seven because it's tied to AI Starbucks. Yeah,
this one was interesting.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Starbucks slipped half percent, announced one billion plan to restructure
who They're going to cut nine hundred, nine hundred non
retail jobs, so they're really going to go down. And uh,
and there's possibly some store closing there.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
IBM THO rose five point two percent after HSBC they're talking.
They're announcing working together here on improving the bond trading,
so they're coming up with a system to do that
a little bit better.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Just get that's that one they call quantum computing, which
is way beyond my understanding.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
I was gonna say, let's just call it quantum computing,
and I can't tell you anything more about exactly it's computing.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
It's quantum and it's computing. Another winner, Intel up eight
point eighty seven.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
That was good. We had Phillip sixty six. So we
had some gas companies going up one point eight two.
Apple rose one point eight one. Again on the negative though,
CarMax they're having a little issue. They were down twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Okay, anything today that we need to keep our eyes
open for.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Oh when he says yeah like that, I know it
means trouble.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
All right, what well, it's the favorite reading of inflation PC,
the PCE index. So we think it's going.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
To tick up, you know, month to month. It was
they're expecting point or they it wasn't point two, sent
they're expecting point three.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
So don't be alarmed if it ticks up just a half,
just a bit year over year was two point six.
They're expecting tick to two point seven. The core we
take energy and food out. Uh that's you. Is it
coming down just a hair or saying you're over your
staying the same, So keep your eye on those. Come
on hour at eight thirty today.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
All right, we'll keep an eye on that. You have
a great weekend. We will talk to you on Monday.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
If you need to talk to Tim before then four
one nine eight two four thirty three hundred Tim w
Atichroadvisors dot Com, Facebook, and LinkedIn. Also, advisory services are
offered through Capital Investment Advisory Services LLC. Securities are offered
through Capital Investment Group, a member of FINRA. SIPC ninety
(07:35):
two nine FM traffic center run
It's Friday, Fred, I'm fantastic and it's not my fault.
Things are going a wire.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Now I'm blaming you.
Speaker 3 (00:07):
Anyhow, nothing bad happens until I answer the phone. So
all right, according to the according to the headline, we
stumbled you again for a third straight day, and for
the SMP it was actually it's only three days, but
it was their longest losing streak. But we're still very
close to the record highs, so it's not really anything
(00:30):
to worry about.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
So give us the rundown on what's going on here.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
It was like a little mini speed bump. But this
is when we've talked about Fred with good news is
bad news and bad news is good news. Uh huh.
Let's look at what happened yesterday. Initial jobless claims expecting
two hundred and thirty five. Is people for filing for unemployment?
Oh no, it came into two hundred and eighteen, So
less people are filing. It's a good thing. The GDP
(00:57):
third estimate for quarter two it was at three point
three They think it grew by three point eight percent.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
What the economy is going. That's a good thing. Inventories
are down, bill were good orders, they were expecting a
negative point four. It came in positive two point nine.
Before ordering you know, big items, washer dryers, things like that.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
So and then at ten o'clock we had existing home
sales down. Remember we had new home sales.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
On Wednesday that was up. Well, they were expecting three
point ninety six million. It came into four million. Good news.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
But would that do to the markets? Well, this is
where the bad news part happens. They think the economy's.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
Growing, well, that Defen's not going to have to cut
interest rates. Oh boy, Well, the Dow was down one
hundred and thirty seven points, which is point three eight
of a percent. Now we know it's gone down a
little bit. For a five day, it's only down point
four to two of a percent. That's the p five
hundred off thirty three points, which is a half percent.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
The five day is.
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Point four one negative, and the Nasdaq off one hundred
and thirteen points, which is a half percent.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's five days, it's negative point three eight.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
But if we look at all year today, they're all
the positive. So you know, things are things are percolating.
I said that yesterday. I still think that's happening, but
we'll see.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
So here's my problem, well not really a problem for
most people. When the estimates came out from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, well just a few months ago, and
the president fired the guy who was doing the statistics
and he you know, he ran it and raved that
(02:41):
you can't trust him.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Somebody's manipulating them and everything else.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
And now one of the first things that you gave
today was the I forget I think you said it
was the third revised estimated.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
There's a third revived estimate.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Now for you, that makes sense because you deal with
this every day. But for somebody listening who looks at
that and goes, why do they keep revising them? Why
is this the third revision? How can I possibly trust
any numbers that are coming from the government agencies. So
what do you tell people if they come in and
(03:23):
talk to you and say, I don't know, how do
you trust these numbers? They're always revising them.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Oh, Fred, when I'm cooking and I'm cooking a hamburger,
I want to make sure it's done, and I'll probably
check it three tens like my meat.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Well cook. Now everyone's probably going, oh no, I got
to have it this way. There the third time usually
is the best because you had enough time to get
all the data in. So I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
Feel more comfortable with the third estimate than i am
the first one.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
That is an excellent analogy.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Yes, that's an excellent analogy because that's exactly what they do.
The first estimate. Here's what we have. Then they gather
a whole bunch more information. They say, oh man, let's
add this to that. And then they add some more information,
and they get into a little other little you know,
to talk to more people, get more numbers, add those
numbers to the first set of numbers, and pretty soon
(04:13):
by the time you get your third revision, that's the
actual situation, which is a good thing.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
You know, if it's negative or however it comes out.
We really need to know the honest truths because we're
looking at all this and making decisions in the economy wise,
market wise. So yes, that's a good, good, good number
to look at. But again, credit's the government. Don't don't
don't put me on my on the soapbox. I'll go off.
It's like we believe anything. But you got to take
(04:44):
the data and go with it.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
You know, were there any were there any losers and
winners yesterday that I saw that Oracle gave back a
little over five percent.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
What about the rest.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Yeah, Oracle did give give back five point six percent.
But here's j bill. Uh they fell six point seven percent.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
After having strong profits, good revenues, and you know they
were even forecasting good and they still go down by
six point seven because it's tied to AI Starbucks. Yeah,
this one was interesting.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Starbucks slipped half percent, announced one billion plan to restructure
who They're going to cut nine hundred, nine hundred non
retail jobs, so they're really going to go down. And uh,
and there's possibly some store closing there.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
IBM THO rose five point two percent after HSBC they're talking.
They're announcing working together here on improving the bond trading,
so they're coming up with a system to do that
a little bit better.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Just get that's that one they call quantum computing, which
is way beyond my understanding.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
I was gonna say, let's just call it quantum computing,
and I can't tell you anything more about exactly it's computing.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
It's quantum and it's computing. Another winner, Intel up eight
point eighty seven.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
That was good. We had Phillip sixty six. So we
had some gas companies going up one point eight two.
Apple rose one point eight one. Again on the negative though,
CarMax they're having a little issue. They were down twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Okay, anything today that we need to keep our eyes
open for.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Oh when he says yeah like that, I know it
means trouble.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
All right, what well, it's the favorite reading of inflation PC,
the PCE index. So we think it's going.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
To tick up, you know, month to month. It was
they're expecting point or they it wasn't point two, sent
they're expecting point three.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
So don't be alarmed if it ticks up just a half,
just a bit year over year was two point six.
They're expecting tick to two point seven. The core we
take energy and food out. Uh that's you. Is it
coming down just a hair or saying you're over your
staying the same, So keep your eye on those. Come
on hour at eight thirty today.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
All right, we'll keep an eye on that. You have
a great weekend. We will talk to you on Monday.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
If you need to talk to Tim before then four
one nine eight two four thirty three hundred Tim w
Atichroadvisors dot Com, Facebook, and LinkedIn. Also, advisory services are
offered through Capital Investment Advisory Services LLC. Securities are offered
through Capital Investment Group, a member of FINRA. SIPC ninety
(07:35):
two nine FM traffic center run
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