August 8, 2024 • 34 mins
Do elections impact the market and our investments??
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, I'm Michael del journal and your morning show can
be heard live as it's happening five to eight am
Central and six to nine Eastern on great stations like
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part of your morning routine, but we're glad you're here.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Now. Enjoy the podcast well two.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Three, starting your morning off right. A new way of talk,
a new way of understanding, because we're in mist given.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
This is your morning show with Michael del Trump and
it pleasant. Good morning to one and all.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
Six minutes after the hours, say hello to Thursday, August
the eighth, rather or not here you come.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Let's get you informed.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
One chance to understand it, one chance to live it
and make a difference. This is your morning show. I
am Michael del Jerner. Now we can't have your morning
show without your voice. So we got some talkbacks. We'll
share them with you here coming up. Got some emails,
we'll share them with you coming up. You can always
call toll free one eight hundred and six eight, eight
ninety five twenty two. There's a talkback button on your
iHeartRadio app Press that you can leave a message. We
(01:07):
can share it with the class instantly, and then there's
a good old fashioned email Michael D. We spare you
the spelling of the last name, though it's close to
a pizza Michael D at iHeartMedia dot com. All right,
I've got several things I want to talk to David
Bonnson from the Bonson Financial Group. You probably see him
on Fox Business all the time. He's our money wiz.
All right, So two things. One, me and Rory just
(01:29):
had a long conversation. America is more in debt than
ever American citizens. And while they're buried in debt, guess what,
Like their government, they think they can spend.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Their way out of it.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
So everybody's trying to figure out how are Americans charging
more more in debt but not slowing down their spending.
Do you care to prognosticate on why they're behaving this
way or how they plan to pull this off?
Speaker 5 (01:53):
Well, I actually don't have to pronostigate because I'm pretty
sure I do know the answer. And so there's two
different angles here that I have to offer first, is
the bad news, the stuff you're going for.
Speaker 6 (02:05):
The concern the real issue.
Speaker 5 (02:08):
There is obviously a cultural infatuation with irresponsibility. There is
a significant problem of short sightedness of people living without
a regard to the future, for common sense, for you know,
their basic responsibilities as adult citizens. And so that is
(02:30):
an issue, and it has been for long time, and
it's worsened.
Speaker 6 (02:34):
So I do not be little that at all. It
is bad and that.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
Is the source of the problem is a moral lack
of internal governance.
Speaker 6 (02:45):
But on a macro level, when we say citizens.
Speaker 5 (02:49):
Are or you know, the individual household sector is in
more debt than it's ever been, I have very good news.
Speaker 6 (02:55):
It's not even close. Now.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
It is true that there's more debt, but as a
percentage of debt to assets, we're not even close to
where we were in two thousand and seven. And so
because I look at government debt by debt to GDP,
meaning the total amount of debt the government has relative
to the size of the economy. And by the way,
(03:18):
because we all look at depth this way, because all
of us think the irresponsible guy down the street with
ten thousand dollars in credit card debt is in a
lot of trouble. And none of us think Apple with
two billion dollars of bond debt is in trouble. We
all know that it isn't the amount of debt, it's
the amount of debt relative to.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
The income and relative to the assets.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
On American absolute levels of dollar debt on credit cards
and so forth are higher than they were in two
thousand and seven by a little bit. But the ratios,
the relationship between debt and income and debt and assets
is significantly better for US households significantly worse.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
But should we but we should?
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Should we be concerned that a lot of that is
because they're asset rich with home value even though they're
cash poor. But that's a home value that may not remain.
So I don't know if it's the same as yeah.
Speaker 6 (04:14):
No, no, no, that's a fair point.
Speaker 5 (04:15):
And I've looked at that quite a bit, Michael, And
that's the ascute way to look at it.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Now.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
One thing is you don't want to belittle.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
The fact that a lot of the asset is on
the house side if a lot of the debt is
on the house side too. In other words, unlike two
thousand and seven, where people's debt was one hundred percent
of the value at home, and so when Holmes drops
twenty percent.
Speaker 6 (04:36):
They they are underwater.
Speaker 5 (04:38):
Right now, if people have twenty thirty or forty percent equity,
even if homes drop twenty thirty or forty percent, they're
not upside down. So there is a big difference. Retirement
accounts are way higher than they were. Sav These accounts
are higher, it's not a part of the problem is the.
Speaker 6 (04:55):
Distribution of it.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
Okay, there's still the bottom desk SiGe files that have
not improved their savings, and the middle death files have
improved their savings more.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
And that makes it a little.
Speaker 5 (05:08):
More complicated because the savings are not even the distributed.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, David Boston joining us for the Bonds and Financial Group.
We visit every week on our economic realities. I would
say a lot of people, especially in news and talk,
are trying to sort out, well, Americans are in debt
and yet they keep spending well, Americans usually don't stop
spending till they lose their job. Now we're seeing some
job losses that are taking place, but not nearly at
(05:33):
a level that would really impact that. And then even
when they do, I wonder how many are using their
four one case. So what we kind of know is
people have been paying for inflation with debt, and then
they might be using access through helocks to the value
of their home to pay down that debt and reset,
but sooner or later that all catches up. I wonder
(05:54):
if we knew how many were using four H one k's,
that too, is dangerous for their future, even though it
allows them to go through these cycles of continuing to
spend when they're in debt. There's probably a lot of
fascinating the dynamics that will be better to look back
at forensically and understand, but a lot of it could
add up to some really dangerous times.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
Yeah, and my view on all those different categories you
bring up is that none of them are because we
have data on all of them, and none of them
speak the dangerous times. But all of them speak the
marginally worse times. In other words, on the margin, each
of those data points has gotten a little bit worse,
But these terms matter for us and economics. Between marginal
(06:40):
worsening and categoricals. You know, the slight increase of borrowing
on helocks on credit cards on four and ks is
what it is. It's like And by the way, on
the helock side, I'm convinced a lot of people are
wanting to do home improvements. They used to do cash
out refinances, but now if they refinannswer, they're going to
(07:02):
repin answer three percent mortgage into a seven percent mortgage.
So they'd rather just use the key lock as opposed
to undermining their cash out reef and you know, in
other words, replacing their first mortgage. So even that data point,
I think is a little skewed, but you're right, all
those data points have.
Speaker 6 (07:18):
To be followed. All of them have gotten a little
bit worse. None of them have gotten a lot worse.
Speaker 4 (07:22):
What we need is a new direction and soon, and
something tells me we'll get a better feel for that
come November, which begs this question, David, how much do
elections actually impact the market and our investments?
Speaker 2 (07:36):
So I can look at the market.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
And we know we had a huge sell off Friday,
we had a historically disastrous day Monday, Tuesday kind of
a steadying blip, and then it blipped back down yesterday.
So all this volatility. We did have the FED holding
off on interest rate cuts. We did have a poor
jobs report. We had a poor tech sector earnings report,
but at the same time we had election cycle go
(08:01):
from Donald Trump can't lose to now Kamala Harris can't lose.
All happening at the same time, Which is it, how
much can politics really impact the marketplace?
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Or was this all fed jobs in tech?
Speaker 6 (08:17):
Zero percent?
Speaker 5 (08:19):
That's how much this market movement has had to do
with the election.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Zero Now.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
I don't blame Donald Trump for putting that tweet out
on Monday about the Kamala crash or whatever.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
Because it's politics and that's what you do.
Speaker 5 (08:30):
And when the markets go down, you blame the opponent.
When the markets go up and you're in office, you
credit yourself.
Speaker 6 (08:36):
But it's patently ridiculous.
Speaker 5 (08:39):
The markets right now are all the way down.
Speaker 6 (08:43):
To where they were three weeks ago. We gave up
three weeks.
Speaker 5 (08:46):
The return the Monday historical drop was not even in
the top one hundred drops ever, not even in the
top hundred percentage basis. The reality is as DAC was
down eight percent before Monday because the tech sector is
over valued, the Dow wasn't even down, and the tech
(09:09):
naz that had gone down eight it's because it was
about the tech sector, and the markets cannot be pricing
in Oh No, we're worried about Toamala right now because
the markets have over three months to go and they
don't have any idea, And the polls and the betting
onds all indicate a fifty to fifty election, and as
I've talked about on your show before, very very likely.
Speaker 6 (09:34):
By one vote.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
I believe that Publicans are going to lose every seat
they're trying to gain except for West Virginia's a layup.
They're going to win that easily by thirty points. And
then I think they have a very good chance of
winning in Montana, but even that's not a sure thing.
But no, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada. None of those
states look good because the Senate context. So why would
(09:57):
markets be freaked out about a Publican majority Senate, which
is the most likely scenario.
Speaker 6 (10:03):
Now, all I can.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
Say is that your other question about do politics matter
to market the answers yes over time. But this market
volatility in the midst of a yen carry trade a
NIEK was the NK down twelve and a half percent,
its worst day in thirty five years because of Kamala Harris,
I mean, and nobody really believes that. And so when
(10:26):
you have the Japanese market having its worst day in
a generation and then it's best day of all time
the very next day, that's not about the US election.
There's something happening in financial markets, a lot of leverage
getting unwound and other things that are going to bore
people to death if I talk about but that's what's
going on here, Michael. And if I thought it was
(10:48):
related to Kamala, I would say so when I've lived
through this is a die hard Reagaunite.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
Conservative to my core.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
I heard all the Democrats say that Trump was going
to pink the market and it rallied huge and all
my Republican friends. But Obama's going to kill the market.
And we never had one down year all eight years
Obama was president. Markets go up three out of four
years or four out of five years on average, because
profit making and capitalism work.
Speaker 6 (11:18):
That's how markets function.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
There's the market and then there's the economy.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Economies are more affected by policies and politics, that's for sure.
David Bonson and he's got a great book, Full timebook.
Dot com is where you'll find it for those who
want to take a deeper look at your ultimate purpose
in life. Just kind of like a I think it's
a great reset for those of you that don't realize it.
But how do you boil a frog a little bit
(11:44):
at a time culture as a way of creeping into
our souls and our spirits. This book will run it
off and get you back focused on how God created
you and purposed you. I love the book. I love
the guy. David Bonson had a great week. We'll talk
next Thursday, so much. All right, sixteen minutes after the hour,
I want to share a few emails. I don't know
if you want to do the whole thing. It's your
(12:04):
morning show, so we need your voice. And there's two ways,
three ways you call, but we have the talkback button. Actually,
let's start with a talkback button. I love my truckers.
And we got a West Coast trucker where it's you know,
when we start at six am Eastern, it's three o'clock
in the morning on the West Coast, So I'm in
the cab.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
Good night over No, No, this is Keith West Coast
Trucker stumbled across your show.
Speaker 4 (12:28):
A couple of weeks ago, getting up extra early to
miss that dreaded LA traffic.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
And uh, I'm so glad I did. You've got a
great show.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
Never heard anybody explain pro life like that before.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Keep it up.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Looking forward to many early mornings with views. God bless
I have a blessed day. It's amazing.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
We visit some of our markets and I'll be in
the lou I'll be in Saint Louis next week and
get a chance to be with our one O four nine,
the Patriot family in Saint Louis. We ought to do
on the West coast, like drive around with Mike for
a week and do our show from the truck cab
blast because it's a whole different mindset when you're that's
the middle of the night there, whereas it's first thing
(13:13):
in the morning here. Love that, I love my truckers. Mike,
Thank you for such powerful encouraging words. By the way,
Kathy sent this, here's another great glimpse. This is from Ecclesiastes.
As you do not know the path of the wind
or how the body is formed in a mother's womb,
so you cannot understand the work of God, the maker
(13:33):
of all things, and it's just a reminder. I don't
want to get preachy, but the Bible has a lot
to say about this question. We've refused to answer, when
does life personhood really begin? Is God's sacred? Because if
God's sacred, his creation is sacred. The Bible has a
lot to say about it. We ignore that as we
(13:56):
listen to politicians and protesters screamed their lives. This comes
from Kathy Michael. Maybe the reason we keep spending despite
struggling with debt is we're following the example of our government,
you know, as just sitting there talking to David Bonson
and listen, I'm not going to se although I've done
it before. I've actually debated with a oncologist about my
(14:21):
own mother's cancer, and I stand by my wisdom quite frankly,
but you do feel a little insecure debating a medical
doctor when you're a talk show host.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
The reality is that three weeks.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
Ago we do one month, for example, but three weeks
ago the dow was at forty one thousand. Today it's
at thirty eight thousand, seven hundred, so we did not
shrink to what we were three weeks ago. Now you
can go back to May and you may have shrunk
back to that, but you see these highs.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I mean, it's just it's hard.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
You know.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
I trust him, I defer to him. He's on Fox
News Business and I'm a morning talk shows. But it
sure looks. I mean, I remember what the market did
the morning after Trump shocked the world in one now
when he was inaugurated, the moment he one up thousands.
(15:21):
I maybe it's just all of the above. Maybe you
can explain some of it by the Fed holding off
on interest rates. Maybe you can explain some of it
on a poor job's report. Tech Sector reports that maybe
some of it is the temporary rise of Kamala Harris.
I guess we'll keep an eye on this right if
it flies right back up to minute she has a
bad debate, we'll know there's a little bit of everything.
(15:44):
This one's just kind of embarrassingly flattering. I don't don't
know if I should even read it. But greetings, Michael D.
I love your singing. Don't encourage it would be a
blast if you would incorporate singing with skits.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Oh I could do I do it every break during
the commercial. Are you kidding me? You don't need karaoke?
Speaker 4 (16:07):
I know that it's always possible break my heart. You
are such an amazing talent with superb analytical and presentation skills.
I don't know when I started listening to you, but
she just recently moved to Telson started listening on the
Patriot there, take good care in best to you and
your family. She actually would like to hear me do
some more Barry Manilow to be specific.
Speaker 5 (16:26):
But.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
I'll look up some tracks.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
You can always email Michael did at iHeartMedia dot com.
Don't forget that talkback button on your iHeartRadio app. Just
press it, leave a message and we can share with
the class.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
This is your Morning show with Michael del Trono.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
I'm Michael del Jaro, Jeffrey Lyons producing, and Aaron ray Alar,
your morning show correspondent, joining us. This has kind of
become a themed conversation. Rory and I kicked it around.
Then we had David Bonson from the Bondson Financial Group
kicking it around. I can't help but look at the
election cycles. You know what it looked like Donald Trump
couldn't lose, and Joe Biden was senile. The market goes
(17:09):
way up, then everything turns and Kamala is riding high,
and now Donald Trump, if you believe the narratives of acxios,
is panicking, and meanwhile the market is falling. But as
you often point out, at the same time, the Fed
holding interest rates, poor jobs reports, poor tech sector reports.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Which is it or is it both?
Speaker 4 (17:29):
They seem to go hand in hand, and we're not
supposed to connect the dots. So then let's just go
to what Americans are dealing with. They're broke. They've been
paying for inflation with debt. They've been using their home
value and he locks or maybe even their four to
oh one ks to kind of catch up, and then
they recycle back into debt. Something tells me, looking at
(17:51):
mortgage refinance demand, that's exactly what's going on over and
over again in cycles.
Speaker 7 (17:57):
Right, Yeah, indeed, this is what happens.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
We go through these cycles.
Speaker 7 (18:03):
And right now the total mortgage application volume is up
seven percent compared to last week. I think this could
be a blip. So we're seeing a thirty or fix
twenty percent down six point five percent, better than the
six point eight percent it was a week before. But
the refi applications, those are up sixteen percent. However, most
bars today they have loans with rates below five percent.
(18:25):
In fact, there's less than a million bars who are
going to benefit by like shaving seventy five bass points
off their current rate if they were to refire right now. So, yes,
it's better, it's not great. Interest rate cycles are long
and mortgages have a direct impact on that.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
What about those that have done helocks? I wonder how
many who did a helock from blank amount and then
they've tapped that out it's maxed out.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
Would there be wisdom?
Speaker 4 (18:52):
And are we seeing a pattern of people going back
to get a higher credit limit based on a higher
value of their home or if they're locked out of that,
they're kind of forced to bite the interest rate bubble
and refinance because both have caught up with them and
they've run out of ceiling.
Speaker 7 (19:10):
Yeah, that's a part of it too. Listen, this is
all coming off of dubbish communication from the Fed. So
when the dovelet, when the Fed says anything slightly dubvish, it's.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Like, oh, yay, here go.
Speaker 7 (19:23):
But you know, we had a week jobs report, we
had this dubvish chalk potential rate decrease in September, and
then we had a mini market sell off Friday and Monday,
so it's beginning to recoup a little. The futures are
looking down this morning, but this is part of the
normal process that we've talked about this a lot. The
(19:43):
life cycle of interest rates there long, like a decade long.
So even if they start coming down, most people have said,
if you just look at the numbers, no one is
interested in getting a mortgage if it's not below five percent.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
You know, we've always said, what's that magic number? You
brought up? Five percent? I felt like it was in
the foes.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
Fours might really get things moving, threes in the gates
wide open again, but you wouldn't think six point five percent.
So the fact that Mortgage Refinance DEMN has sorted sixteen percent,
that would tell you some people are they're really they're
at the wall. I mean they're facing go time and
six is having to work because they don't have any
(20:22):
more time to make it till five or if I
say four and a half or anything more reasonable. So
it'd be very interesting, especially if the election goes one
way and not the other and people think they've got
a hunker down for four more years of this.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
I think what's most dangerous.
Speaker 4 (20:36):
This would be something for you, like for future stories,
to keep your eye on the information's out there. We know,
I think you've often talked about we don't stop spending
till we lose our job. Some may not even then
because of the gig economy or tapping into their four
oh one K. But I wonder if the real story
here isn't going to be how people who did prioritize
(20:58):
the future and retirement and savings lost decades of it
to survive the few years of this now, meaning the
worst damage is to come a decade from now, not
the next three years. That's what I see looming out there.
Speaker 7 (21:15):
Yes, like if you look ahead into the future, this
will terrify you for sure. And I also think that
it's going to put a lot of people up outside
of what is acceptable in terms of creating equity with
home ownership. It's locking people out for decades, which has
an impact on their entire life. This is the new normal.
There isn't enough homes. There aren't enough Excuse me, there
aren't enough homes to support everyone who needs them. We
(21:38):
have a huge housing shortage in this country, and without
substantial building, we're going to continue to see these high
numbers and always say this unit, you can refinance your mortgage,
but you cannot refinance or change the price you paid.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
There's still sky high prices.
Speaker 7 (21:52):
And while you know mortgage rates are down, sales inventory
is beginning to increase gradually, and only in some parts
of the countries. Buyers are likely bidding their time before
they enter the market. And it's not like you're gonna
you're gonna have mortgage comes down to any tons of
people come back in and we're gonna have the same
problem with the housing shortage.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Well, yeah, it's twofold.
Speaker 4 (22:13):
We do need to build more, and it's the very
people who own homes that are fighting zoning for more building.
Then there's the material costs that are holding building back
and still driving up prices. But yeah, if the interest
rates get down to whatever that magic number is five
four and a half four or under three, then you'd
see everybody that owns homes let go of their home
because they could sell theirs and get a similar, similar
(22:35):
priced home at a similar interest rate that would ease
up that inventory shortage. It's twofold. What I talked about
with David Bonsen is he says not all debts the same. Like,
you know, we'll talk about people with fifty thousand dollars
credit card debt like how responsible they are, and then
ignore two billion dollars of a major company's debt. Well,
it all depends on assets. But these assets are based
(22:56):
on home values that when more homes are built and
when interest rates return.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Will lose their value.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
So if you've got it all tied up, you better
time it right or you could get stuck holding the
bag on all of it. I still think what I
see today looks more dangerous ten years from now than
it does ten months from now.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
I'll dismount on that point.
Speaker 7 (23:20):
Yep, Yeah, I would agree. I would agree with that.
I would agree with that. But again, this is a
part of the cycle. There are always.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
Booms and busts.
Speaker 7 (23:27):
I don't think that we like I think that we
have a tendency in the media myself included, to look
at the future.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Like, oh no, we're going off a cliff.
Speaker 7 (23:37):
They are going to come back down. It's going to
get better. There will be winners and losers in all
of this. It's the timing that matters.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, I just suspect there's a lot of people who
whether they lost their job and had to tap into
their four oh one K, or they or they kept
their job but they had to pay for inflation with debt,
have used some of their retirement and the longer this lasts,
the more of it they use. Uh, that's going to
be very expensive down the line. And of course most
(24:04):
Americans don't even save and plan for the future. They
live for the day. That's a whole other cycle to
to bear in mind. Well, we'll keep an eye on this,
you know, And and then you know, the whole conversation
about you. You look at the market, it seems to
rise and fall based on the ebbs and flows of
election news. But then the experts are telling you has
nothing to do with that, that's all built in. It's
(24:26):
really driven by other factors, more financial sector factors.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
But boy, they sure match.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
And you know, it'd be funny if like Kamala does
debate and has a really bad debate moment one, if
the market starts recovering, and then they'll have to explain
to me again how it was some business news item
or report. And it sure looks like it's tied to
the ebbs and flows of how this election is going
but I'm not a financial expert. I just talked to them.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Hey, everybody's John of England, dan on Ford Coli and
my morning show is your morning show with Michael del Jorno.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
This is your morning show.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
I'm Michael del Jorno and this is Wesley listening to
us on one O four nine the Patriot in Saint Louis.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
One of the things about the spending that I haven't
heard you say is the genera generational aspect. You know,
we're all gen X out here for the most part
in the workforce and stuff, and you know, we really
were raised different and we just respond differently to.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Pretty much everything in our lives. So we don't fear easily.
And none of these Yes, no, I.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Don't want I don't want to.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
I don't want anybody to live scared U, that's for sure.
Nobody's intending to scare you. We just want you to
be aware of the economy you're living in. I've never
really thought about it generationally. I would think that, and
I'm the last year of the baby boomers. I would
think the baby boomers have the advantage of assets. Baby
Boomers were probably not raised the same as gen X.
(26:02):
Gen X would have been raised more in a spending
pattern than previous generations. I'll tell you, I do notice
the gen zers. My kids, they're thinking about am I
gonna be able to own a home someday? And it's
impacting what they're choosing to study and go into. There's
(26:24):
also a good portion of this gig economy that is
kind of new. It's fascinating to watch this all play out.
I don't play any of those games. I mean, you know,
I think money is an issue of obedience and common
sense or sensibility. None of us can save enough for
(26:45):
the future. The problem is if you only say for
the future, you never really live. We had David Bonson
talk about some of the moral shortfalls that we have
of America that loves to live for the day and
live in the moment and not land for the future.
And that's reckless too. Finding a balance and tapping into
(27:06):
a resource through faith that is proven you kind of
you don't play these fear games, but this is a
tough look. Two thousand and eight was a really tough
bubble crash. What we're kind of surviving right now with
a housing crisis, border crisis, high debt for the government,
high debt for individuals high value homes, but we don't
(27:29):
have any cash.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
You know, people are going to make some choices and choices.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
That are going to impact their future, and so we
just want to help people have the best information to
make the wisest choices. Speaking of that, Roy O'Neil is
always a wise choice. To end with our final story
with Rory, and that story is Debbie. She's not a
hurricane this time. She comes back as a tropical storm,
but she's back in the good USA over South Carolina.
Speaker 3 (27:55):
Good morning, both Carolinas.
Speaker 9 (27:57):
Yeah, both Carolina is still getting a pretty good wallap Debbie,
which was down. Winds are down to forty five miles
per hour, but it is starting to pick up forward
speed and that's a good sign. Debbie has been meandering
over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas since Monday and has
done so much rain, more than twenty inches of rain
(28:17):
in some of these low lying locations, so flooding is
obviously the big concern here. Luckily, there's a frontal system
coming along, so as Debbie gets even weaker, likely being
downgraded to a tropical depression this afternoon, it's going to
get picked up by this front and whisked up to
the northeast, making quick moves over Pennsylvania, upstate New York,
(28:37):
parts of New England, and then into Canada.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
That could be threatening the New York State far and Syracuse.
We don't need any of that.
Speaker 6 (28:45):
There could be a pretty.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Good weekend though, so this could be out of there
by the time.
Speaker 9 (28:48):
Yeah, by Friday night could be sloppy, but Saturday morning,
get those deep fright snickers.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
Debbie was never a really dangerous hurricane. Debbie just dumps
a lot of water and creates the risk of flooding. So,
as you mentioned the movement.
Speaker 9 (29:04):
We've got six depths blamed on this storm. No, it's
not nothing. And again and we always know what the
Cat one, it's nothing. You know, at least six people
have lost their lives just in Florida as a result,
oftentimes through car accidents. We know there was a teenager
who was killed when a tree fell on the mobile
home where he was living. You know, so these can
still be potentially dangerous systems that you know, you shouldn't
(29:26):
be having hurricane parties. You should be paying attention to
what's going on.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I was watching a stand up comedian the other day
and he was talking about hurricanes and all the warning
you get. I think what may make some of these
storms more dangerous is that if it was a Cat five,
you know, you would have evacuated, and if you didn't evacuate,
well you were really rolling some pretty dumb dice. But
when you get one like this in between, that's when
stuff can happen, because no one would even suggest that
(29:51):
you need to be more than just prepared. You know,
no one would say evacuation. So you're right to point
that out. I wanted to know if you you probably
didn't catch it. But West in Saint Louis just left
a message and he was talking about, you know how
the gen X we don't scare easy and you know,
we know, you know, we're the most of the workforce
and we're not intimidated by these tough times. I've never
really thought of it generationally. I mean, I guess if
(30:13):
we're talking baby boomers, they're close. Retirement is more of
a reality than career in working years, whereas gen X
it would be. You know, they've they've got their their gill,
their skills, their work ethic, you know, the gig economy,
their their main career. But I have noticed with gen
Z my kids, they seem to be very focused on
(30:35):
this because but they're at the other end. While I'm
approaching retirement, they're approaching planning their career, and they want
to be able to see, Okay, well, if I want
to have a house in a neighborhood like this, and
I want my kids to be able to have what
I had, I'm going to need to be this. I
guess I've never really stopped and thought about how different
(30:56):
generations view the same troubling economic times.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
It's fascinating.
Speaker 9 (31:00):
Well, it's also that that generation may not do as
well as their parents.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I think we're.
Speaker 9 (31:04):
Seeing among gen xers like myself that for the most part,
we're doing better off than our parents as a rule,
but that may not be the case for the subsequent generations.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
And I think that's what's causing a lot of the fear.
Speaker 4 (31:17):
I was watching one of those reels and it was
an old nineteen seventy three commercial for Bonanza.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
Did you ever eat a Bonanza when you were younger?
Speaker 3 (31:25):
No?
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Oh, Bonanza was like great, Well, I say it takouse.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
It was like a little.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
Cheap It was like a cheap steakhouse. But but it
was really good.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
And I mean you went there, you had a little
silver plate, remember, and they would do your tea bone
or your ribbie. You got a potato and the deal
in nineteen seventy three was come to bonanza. They're having
a tea bone with a baked potato, loaded and a
salad for two twenty nine. I mean, you can't get
a kid's meal for that, and you were eating a
steak dinner, you know.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
And that was nineteen seventy three. So when we talk
about doing better than our parents, I don't know. I
mean maybe our salaries are higher, but I don't know
if we're doing better.
Speaker 9 (32:03):
Well, Okay, fifty years of inflation on that, we can you.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Know, let's run that to the computer and figure out
what that tells.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
Yeah, exactly, that's not you can't you can't get a
stake like that for thirty bucks. But yeah, that that's
the thing, you know, And what we saw with earlier
generations is we wanted what our parents had amassed over
decades as soon as we got out of college, and
we would debt our way to get it. Uh, this
generation is going to have a difficult time keeping up
with that, but I never thought of it's fascinating to
(32:29):
view it through the eyes of different generations. That might
be a future story anything you can dig to the
bottom of and see how baby boomers are reacting versus
gen Z or gen X or others, because that could
be very, very interesting.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
That sounds like work.
Speaker 4 (32:46):
Oh yeah, we don't want to do Workngineer. Well, and
I'm on so much cold medicine. Trust me, I'm incapable
of work. Rory with the final story, have a great
Dayble to talk again tomorrow? All right, Well, keep an
eye on We said this yesterday and it sure played
out the rest of the day. The race is on
to define the two unknowns in this candidate, Tim Walls
(33:10):
and JD. Vance, and I think round one went to JD.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Vance.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
There was a much worse day for Tim Walls. But
let's see how that plays out. There is a narrative
that's trying to sell you. Now Trump can't win. Now,
he's losing all the momentum. Now he's disgruddled, and he's
talking to his handlers. He doesn't like the where the
campaign's going, and he's made a big mistake in Jdvans
the amount of narrative play. We'll keep an eye on that.
(33:38):
And can America get to one hundred medals today? They
should as the Olympics continue, and we start the day
with ninety four and we want to be nice tonight
to watch a little football preseason Lions and Giants Thursday
Night football, also Panthers and Patriots to add to the Olympics.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
To get our minds off all of this divisive politics.
We're all in this together. This is your morning show
with Michael Ventel and showIn now, Hm
Hi, I'm Michael del journal and your morning show can
be heard live as it's happening five to eight am
Central and six to nine Eastern on great stations like
six twenty WJDX and Jackson, Mississippi, or Akrons News Talk
six fort WHLO and Akron, Ohio and News Radio five
seventy WDAK and Columbus, Georgia. We'd love to be a
part of your morning routine, but we're glad you're here.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Now. Enjoy the podcast well two.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Three, starting your morning off right. A new way of talk,
a new way of understanding, because we're in mist given.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
This is your morning show with Michael del Trump and
it pleasant. Good morning to one and all.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
Six minutes after the hours, say hello to Thursday, August
the eighth, rather or not here you come.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Let's get you informed.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
One chance to understand it, one chance to live it
and make a difference. This is your morning show. I
am Michael del Jerner. Now we can't have your morning
show without your voice. So we got some talkbacks. We'll
share them with you here coming up. Got some emails,
we'll share them with you coming up. You can always
call toll free one eight hundred and six eight, eight
ninety five twenty two. There's a talkback button on your
iHeartRadio app Press that you can leave a message. We
(01:07):
can share it with the class instantly, and then there's
a good old fashioned email Michael D. We spare you
the spelling of the last name, though it's close to
a pizza Michael D at iHeartMedia dot com. All right,
I've got several things I want to talk to David
Bonnson from the Bonson Financial Group. You probably see him
on Fox Business all the time. He's our money wiz.
All right, So two things. One, me and Rory just
(01:29):
had a long conversation. America is more in debt than
ever American citizens. And while they're buried in debt, guess what,
Like their government, they think they can spend.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Their way out of it.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
So everybody's trying to figure out how are Americans charging
more more in debt but not slowing down their spending.
Do you care to prognosticate on why they're behaving this
way or how they plan to pull this off?
Speaker 5 (01:53):
Well, I actually don't have to pronostigate because I'm pretty
sure I do know the answer. And so there's two
different angles here that I have to offer first, is
the bad news, the stuff you're going for.
Speaker 6 (02:05):
The concern the real issue.
Speaker 5 (02:08):
There is obviously a cultural infatuation with irresponsibility. There is
a significant problem of short sightedness of people living without
a regard to the future, for common sense, for you know,
their basic responsibilities as adult citizens. And so that is
(02:30):
an issue, and it has been for long time, and
it's worsened.
Speaker 6 (02:34):
So I do not be little that at all. It
is bad and that.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
Is the source of the problem is a moral lack
of internal governance.
Speaker 6 (02:45):
But on a macro level, when we say citizens.
Speaker 5 (02:49):
Are or you know, the individual household sector is in
more debt than it's ever been, I have very good news.
Speaker 6 (02:55):
It's not even close. Now.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
It is true that there's more debt, but as a
percentage of debt to assets, we're not even close to
where we were in two thousand and seven. And so
because I look at government debt by debt to GDP,
meaning the total amount of debt the government has relative
to the size of the economy. And by the way,
(03:18):
because we all look at depth this way, because all
of us think the irresponsible guy down the street with
ten thousand dollars in credit card debt is in a
lot of trouble. And none of us think Apple with
two billion dollars of bond debt is in trouble. We
all know that it isn't the amount of debt, it's
the amount of debt relative to.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
The income and relative to the assets.
Speaker 5 (03:42):
On American absolute levels of dollar debt on credit cards
and so forth are higher than they were in two
thousand and seven by a little bit. But the ratios,
the relationship between debt and income and debt and assets
is significantly better for US households significantly worse.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
But should we but we should?
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Should we be concerned that a lot of that is
because they're asset rich with home value even though they're
cash poor. But that's a home value that may not remain.
So I don't know if it's the same as yeah.
Speaker 6 (04:14):
No, no, no, that's a fair point.
Speaker 5 (04:15):
And I've looked at that quite a bit, Michael, And
that's the ascute way to look at it.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Now.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
One thing is you don't want to belittle.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
The fact that a lot of the asset is on
the house side if a lot of the debt is
on the house side too. In other words, unlike two
thousand and seven, where people's debt was one hundred percent
of the value at home, and so when Holmes drops
twenty percent.
Speaker 6 (04:36):
They they are underwater.
Speaker 5 (04:38):
Right now, if people have twenty thirty or forty percent equity,
even if homes drop twenty thirty or forty percent, they're
not upside down. So there is a big difference. Retirement
accounts are way higher than they were. Sav These accounts
are higher, it's not a part of the problem is the.
Speaker 6 (04:55):
Distribution of it.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
Okay, there's still the bottom desk SiGe files that have
not improved their savings, and the middle death files have
improved their savings more.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
And that makes it a little.
Speaker 5 (05:08):
More complicated because the savings are not even the distributed.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, David Boston joining us for the Bonds and Financial Group.
We visit every week on our economic realities. I would
say a lot of people, especially in news and talk,
are trying to sort out, well, Americans are in debt
and yet they keep spending well, Americans usually don't stop
spending till they lose their job. Now we're seeing some
job losses that are taking place, but not nearly at
(05:33):
a level that would really impact that. And then even
when they do, I wonder how many are using their
four one case. So what we kind of know is
people have been paying for inflation with debt, and then
they might be using access through helocks to the value
of their home to pay down that debt and reset,
but sooner or later that all catches up. I wonder
(05:54):
if we knew how many were using four H one k's,
that too, is dangerous for their future, even though it
allows them to go through these cycles of continuing to
spend when they're in debt. There's probably a lot of
fascinating the dynamics that will be better to look back
at forensically and understand, but a lot of it could
add up to some really dangerous times.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
Yeah, and my view on all those different categories you
bring up is that none of them are because we
have data on all of them, and none of them
speak the dangerous times. But all of them speak the
marginally worse times. In other words, on the margin, each
of those data points has gotten a little bit worse,
But these terms matter for us and economics. Between marginal
(06:40):
worsening and categoricals. You know, the slight increase of borrowing
on helocks on credit cards on four and ks is
what it is. It's like And by the way, on
the helock side, I'm convinced a lot of people are
wanting to do home improvements. They used to do cash
out refinances, but now if they refinannswer, they're going to
(07:02):
repin answer three percent mortgage into a seven percent mortgage.
So they'd rather just use the key lock as opposed
to undermining their cash out reef and you know, in
other words, replacing their first mortgage. So even that data point,
I think is a little skewed, but you're right, all
those data points have.
Speaker 6 (07:18):
To be followed. All of them have gotten a little
bit worse. None of them have gotten a lot worse.
Speaker 4 (07:22):
What we need is a new direction and soon, and
something tells me we'll get a better feel for that
come November, which begs this question, David, how much do
elections actually impact the market and our investments?
Speaker 2 (07:36):
So I can look at the market.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
And we know we had a huge sell off Friday,
we had a historically disastrous day Monday, Tuesday kind of
a steadying blip, and then it blipped back down yesterday.
So all this volatility. We did have the FED holding
off on interest rate cuts. We did have a poor
jobs report. We had a poor tech sector earnings report,
but at the same time we had election cycle go
(08:01):
from Donald Trump can't lose to now Kamala Harris can't lose.
All happening at the same time, Which is it, how
much can politics really impact the marketplace?
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Or was this all fed jobs in tech?
Speaker 6 (08:17):
Zero percent?
Speaker 5 (08:19):
That's how much this market movement has had to do
with the election.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Zero Now.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
I don't blame Donald Trump for putting that tweet out
on Monday about the Kamala crash or whatever.
Speaker 6 (08:28):
Because it's politics and that's what you do.
Speaker 5 (08:30):
And when the markets go down, you blame the opponent.
When the markets go up and you're in office, you
credit yourself.
Speaker 6 (08:36):
But it's patently ridiculous.
Speaker 5 (08:39):
The markets right now are all the way down.
Speaker 6 (08:43):
To where they were three weeks ago. We gave up
three weeks.
Speaker 5 (08:46):
The return the Monday historical drop was not even in
the top one hundred drops ever, not even in the
top hundred percentage basis. The reality is as DAC was
down eight percent before Monday because the tech sector is
over valued, the Dow wasn't even down, and the tech
(09:09):
naz that had gone down eight it's because it was
about the tech sector, and the markets cannot be pricing
in Oh No, we're worried about Toamala right now because
the markets have over three months to go and they
don't have any idea, And the polls and the betting
onds all indicate a fifty to fifty election, and as
I've talked about on your show before, very very likely.
Speaker 6 (09:34):
By one vote.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
I believe that Publicans are going to lose every seat
they're trying to gain except for West Virginia's a layup.
They're going to win that easily by thirty points. And
then I think they have a very good chance of
winning in Montana, but even that's not a sure thing.
But no, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada. None of those
states look good because the Senate context. So why would
(09:57):
markets be freaked out about a Publican majority Senate, which
is the most likely scenario.
Speaker 6 (10:03):
Now, all I can.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
Say is that your other question about do politics matter
to market the answers yes over time. But this market
volatility in the midst of a yen carry trade a
NIEK was the NK down twelve and a half percent,
its worst day in thirty five years because of Kamala Harris,
I mean, and nobody really believes that. And so when
(10:26):
you have the Japanese market having its worst day in
a generation and then it's best day of all time
the very next day, that's not about the US election.
There's something happening in financial markets, a lot of leverage
getting unwound and other things that are going to bore
people to death if I talk about but that's what's
going on here, Michael. And if I thought it was
(10:48):
related to Kamala, I would say so when I've lived
through this is a die hard Reagaunite.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
Conservative to my core.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
I heard all the Democrats say that Trump was going
to pink the market and it rallied huge and all
my Republican friends. But Obama's going to kill the market.
And we never had one down year all eight years
Obama was president. Markets go up three out of four
years or four out of five years on average, because
profit making and capitalism work.
Speaker 6 (11:18):
That's how markets function.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
There's the market and then there's the economy.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Economies are more affected by policies and politics, that's for sure.
David Bonson and he's got a great book, Full timebook.
Dot com is where you'll find it for those who
want to take a deeper look at your ultimate purpose
in life. Just kind of like a I think it's
a great reset for those of you that don't realize it.
But how do you boil a frog a little bit
(11:44):
at a time culture as a way of creeping into
our souls and our spirits. This book will run it
off and get you back focused on how God created
you and purposed you. I love the book. I love
the guy. David Bonson had a great week. We'll talk
next Thursday, so much. All right, sixteen minutes after the hour,
I want to share a few emails. I don't know
if you want to do the whole thing. It's your
(12:04):
morning show, so we need your voice. And there's two ways,
three ways you call, but we have the talkback button. Actually,
let's start with a talkback button. I love my truckers.
And we got a West Coast trucker where it's you know,
when we start at six am Eastern, it's three o'clock
in the morning on the West Coast, So I'm in
the cab.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
Good night over No, No, this is Keith West Coast
Trucker stumbled across your show.
Speaker 4 (12:28):
A couple of weeks ago, getting up extra early to
miss that dreaded LA traffic.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
And uh, I'm so glad I did. You've got a
great show.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
Never heard anybody explain pro life like that before.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
Keep it up.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Looking forward to many early mornings with views. God bless
I have a blessed day. It's amazing.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
We visit some of our markets and I'll be in
the lou I'll be in Saint Louis next week and
get a chance to be with our one O four nine,
the Patriot family in Saint Louis. We ought to do
on the West coast, like drive around with Mike for
a week and do our show from the truck cab
blast because it's a whole different mindset when you're that's
the middle of the night there, whereas it's first thing
(13:13):
in the morning here. Love that, I love my truckers. Mike,
Thank you for such powerful encouraging words. By the way,
Kathy sent this, here's another great glimpse. This is from Ecclesiastes.
As you do not know the path of the wind
or how the body is formed in a mother's womb,
so you cannot understand the work of God, the maker
(13:33):
of all things, and it's just a reminder. I don't
want to get preachy, but the Bible has a lot
to say about this question. We've refused to answer, when
does life personhood really begin? Is God's sacred? Because if
God's sacred, his creation is sacred. The Bible has a
lot to say about it. We ignore that as we
(13:56):
listen to politicians and protesters screamed their lives. This comes
from Kathy Michael. Maybe the reason we keep spending despite
struggling with debt is we're following the example of our government,
you know, as just sitting there talking to David Bonson
and listen, I'm not going to se although I've done
it before. I've actually debated with a oncologist about my
(14:21):
own mother's cancer, and I stand by my wisdom quite frankly,
but you do feel a little insecure debating a medical
doctor when you're a talk show host.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
The reality is that three weeks.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
Ago we do one month, for example, but three weeks
ago the dow was at forty one thousand. Today it's
at thirty eight thousand, seven hundred, so we did not
shrink to what we were three weeks ago. Now you
can go back to May and you may have shrunk
back to that, but you see these highs.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I mean, it's just it's hard.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
You know.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
I trust him, I defer to him. He's on Fox
News Business and I'm a morning talk shows. But it
sure looks. I mean, I remember what the market did
the morning after Trump shocked the world in one now
when he was inaugurated, the moment he one up thousands.
(15:21):
I maybe it's just all of the above. Maybe you
can explain some of it by the Fed holding off
on interest rates. Maybe you can explain some of it
on a poor job's report. Tech Sector reports that maybe
some of it is the temporary rise of Kamala Harris.
I guess we'll keep an eye on this right if
it flies right back up to minute she has a
bad debate, we'll know there's a little bit of everything.
(15:44):
This one's just kind of embarrassingly flattering. I don't don't
know if I should even read it. But greetings, Michael D.
I love your singing. Don't encourage it would be a
blast if you would incorporate singing with skits.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Oh I could do I do it every break during
the commercial. Are you kidding me? You don't need karaoke?
Speaker 4 (16:07):
I know that it's always possible break my heart. You
are such an amazing talent with superb analytical and presentation skills.
I don't know when I started listening to you, but
she just recently moved to Telson started listening on the
Patriot there, take good care in best to you and
your family. She actually would like to hear me do
some more Barry Manilow to be specific.
Speaker 5 (16:26):
But.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
I'll look up some tracks.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
You can always email Michael did at iHeartMedia dot com.
Don't forget that talkback button on your iHeartRadio app. Just
press it, leave a message and we can share with
the class.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
This is your Morning show with Michael del Trono.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
I'm Michael del Jaro, Jeffrey Lyons producing, and Aaron ray Alar,
your morning show correspondent, joining us. This has kind of
become a themed conversation. Rory and I kicked it around.
Then we had David Bonson from the Bondson Financial Group
kicking it around. I can't help but look at the
election cycles. You know what it looked like Donald Trump
couldn't lose, and Joe Biden was senile. The market goes
(17:09):
way up, then everything turns and Kamala is riding high,
and now Donald Trump, if you believe the narratives of acxios,
is panicking, and meanwhile the market is falling. But as
you often point out, at the same time, the Fed
holding interest rates, poor jobs reports, poor tech sector reports.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Which is it or is it both?
Speaker 4 (17:29):
They seem to go hand in hand, and we're not
supposed to connect the dots. So then let's just go
to what Americans are dealing with. They're broke. They've been
paying for inflation with debt. They've been using their home
value and he locks or maybe even their four to
oh one ks to kind of catch up, and then
they recycle back into debt. Something tells me, looking at
(17:51):
mortgage refinance demand, that's exactly what's going on over and
over again in cycles.
Speaker 7 (17:57):
Right, Yeah, indeed, this is what happens.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
We go through these cycles.
Speaker 7 (18:03):
And right now the total mortgage application volume is up
seven percent compared to last week. I think this could
be a blip. So we're seeing a thirty or fix
twenty percent down six point five percent, better than the
six point eight percent it was a week before. But
the refi applications, those are up sixteen percent. However, most
bars today they have loans with rates below five percent.
(18:25):
In fact, there's less than a million bars who are
going to benefit by like shaving seventy five bass points
off their current rate if they were to refire right now. So, yes,
it's better, it's not great. Interest rate cycles are long
and mortgages have a direct impact on that.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
What about those that have done helocks? I wonder how
many who did a helock from blank amount and then
they've tapped that out it's maxed out.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
Would there be wisdom?
Speaker 4 (18:52):
And are we seeing a pattern of people going back
to get a higher credit limit based on a higher
value of their home or if they're locked out of that,
they're kind of forced to bite the interest rate bubble
and refinance because both have caught up with them and
they've run out of ceiling.
Speaker 7 (19:10):
Yeah, that's a part of it too. Listen, this is
all coming off of dubbish communication from the Fed. So
when the dovelet, when the Fed says anything slightly dubvish, it's.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Like, oh, yay, here go.
Speaker 7 (19:23):
But you know, we had a week jobs report, we
had this dubvish chalk potential rate decrease in September, and
then we had a mini market sell off Friday and Monday,
so it's beginning to recoup a little. The futures are
looking down this morning, but this is part of the
normal process that we've talked about this a lot. The
(19:43):
life cycle of interest rates there long, like a decade long.
So even if they start coming down, most people have said,
if you just look at the numbers, no one is
interested in getting a mortgage if it's not below five percent.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
You know, we've always said, what's that magic number? You
brought up? Five percent? I felt like it was in
the foes.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
Fours might really get things moving, threes in the gates
wide open again, but you wouldn't think six point five percent.
So the fact that Mortgage Refinance DEMN has sorted sixteen percent,
that would tell you some people are they're really they're
at the wall. I mean they're facing go time and
six is having to work because they don't have any
(20:22):
more time to make it till five or if I
say four and a half or anything more reasonable. So
it'd be very interesting, especially if the election goes one
way and not the other and people think they've got
a hunker down for four more years of this.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
I think what's most dangerous.
Speaker 4 (20:36):
This would be something for you, like for future stories,
to keep your eye on the information's out there. We know,
I think you've often talked about we don't stop spending
till we lose our job. Some may not even then
because of the gig economy or tapping into their four
oh one K. But I wonder if the real story
here isn't going to be how people who did prioritize
(20:58):
the future and retirement and savings lost decades of it
to survive the few years of this now, meaning the
worst damage is to come a decade from now, not
the next three years. That's what I see looming out there.
Speaker 7 (21:15):
Yes, like if you look ahead into the future, this
will terrify you for sure. And I also think that
it's going to put a lot of people up outside
of what is acceptable in terms of creating equity with
home ownership. It's locking people out for decades, which has
an impact on their entire life. This is the new normal.
There isn't enough homes. There aren't enough Excuse me, there
aren't enough homes to support everyone who needs them. We
(21:38):
have a huge housing shortage in this country, and without
substantial building, we're going to continue to see these high
numbers and always say this unit, you can refinance your mortgage,
but you cannot refinance or change the price you paid.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
There's still sky high prices.
Speaker 7 (21:52):
And while you know mortgage rates are down, sales inventory
is beginning to increase gradually, and only in some parts
of the countries. Buyers are likely bidding their time before
they enter the market. And it's not like you're gonna
you're gonna have mortgage comes down to any tons of
people come back in and we're gonna have the same
problem with the housing shortage.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Well, yeah, it's twofold.
Speaker 4 (22:13):
We do need to build more, and it's the very
people who own homes that are fighting zoning for more building.
Then there's the material costs that are holding building back
and still driving up prices. But yeah, if the interest
rates get down to whatever that magic number is five
four and a half four or under three, then you'd
see everybody that owns homes let go of their home
because they could sell theirs and get a similar, similar
(22:35):
priced home at a similar interest rate that would ease
up that inventory shortage. It's twofold. What I talked about
with David Bonsen is he says not all debts the same. Like,
you know, we'll talk about people with fifty thousand dollars
credit card debt like how responsible they are, and then
ignore two billion dollars of a major company's debt. Well,
it all depends on assets. But these assets are based
(22:56):
on home values that when more homes are built and
when interest rates return.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Will lose their value.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
So if you've got it all tied up, you better
time it right or you could get stuck holding the
bag on all of it. I still think what I
see today looks more dangerous ten years from now than
it does ten months from now.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
I'll dismount on that point.
Speaker 7 (23:20):
Yep, Yeah, I would agree. I would agree with that.
I would agree with that. But again, this is a
part of the cycle. There are always.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
Booms and busts.
Speaker 7 (23:27):
I don't think that we like I think that we
have a tendency in the media myself included, to look
at the future.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Like, oh no, we're going off a cliff.
Speaker 7 (23:37):
They are going to come back down. It's going to
get better. There will be winners and losers in all
of this. It's the timing that matters.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Yeah, I just suspect there's a lot of people who
whether they lost their job and had to tap into
their four oh one K, or they or they kept
their job but they had to pay for inflation with debt,
have used some of their retirement and the longer this lasts,
the more of it they use. Uh, that's going to
be very expensive down the line. And of course most
(24:04):
Americans don't even save and plan for the future. They
live for the day. That's a whole other cycle to
to bear in mind. Well, we'll keep an eye on this,
you know, And and then you know, the whole conversation
about you. You look at the market, it seems to
rise and fall based on the ebbs and flows of
election news. But then the experts are telling you has
nothing to do with that, that's all built in. It's
(24:26):
really driven by other factors, more financial sector factors.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
But boy, they sure match.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
And you know, it'd be funny if like Kamala does
debate and has a really bad debate moment one, if
the market starts recovering, and then they'll have to explain
to me again how it was some business news item
or report. And it sure looks like it's tied to
the ebbs and flows of how this election is going
but I'm not a financial expert. I just talked to them.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Hey, everybody's John of England, dan on Ford Coli and
my morning show is your morning show with Michael del Jorno.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
This is your morning show.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
I'm Michael del Jorno and this is Wesley listening to
us on one O four nine the Patriot in Saint Louis.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
One of the things about the spending that I haven't
heard you say is the genera generational aspect. You know,
we're all gen X out here for the most part
in the workforce and stuff, and you know, we really
were raised different and we just respond differently to.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Pretty much everything in our lives. So we don't fear easily.
And none of these Yes, no, I.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Don't want I don't want to.
Speaker 4 (25:37):
I don't want anybody to live scared U, that's for sure.
Nobody's intending to scare you. We just want you to
be aware of the economy you're living in. I've never
really thought about it generationally. I would think that, and
I'm the last year of the baby boomers. I would
think the baby boomers have the advantage of assets. Baby
Boomers were probably not raised the same as gen X.
(26:02):
Gen X would have been raised more in a spending
pattern than previous generations. I'll tell you, I do notice
the gen zers. My kids, they're thinking about am I
gonna be able to own a home someday? And it's
impacting what they're choosing to study and go into. There's
(26:24):
also a good portion of this gig economy that is
kind of new. It's fascinating to watch this all play out.
I don't play any of those games. I mean, you know,
I think money is an issue of obedience and common
sense or sensibility. None of us can save enough for
(26:45):
the future. The problem is if you only say for
the future, you never really live. We had David Bonson
talk about some of the moral shortfalls that we have
of America that loves to live for the day and
live in the moment and not land for the future.
And that's reckless too. Finding a balance and tapping into
(27:06):
a resource through faith that is proven you kind of
you don't play these fear games, but this is a
tough look. Two thousand and eight was a really tough
bubble crash. What we're kind of surviving right now with
a housing crisis, border crisis, high debt for the government,
high debt for individuals high value homes, but we don't
(27:29):
have any cash.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
You know, people are going to make some choices and choices.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
That are going to impact their future, and so we
just want to help people have the best information to
make the wisest choices. Speaking of that, Roy O'Neil is
always a wise choice. To end with our final story
with Rory, and that story is Debbie. She's not a
hurricane this time. She comes back as a tropical storm,
but she's back in the good USA over South Carolina.
Speaker 3 (27:55):
Good morning, both Carolinas.
Speaker 9 (27:57):
Yeah, both Carolina is still getting a pretty good wallap Debbie,
which was down. Winds are down to forty five miles
per hour, but it is starting to pick up forward
speed and that's a good sign. Debbie has been meandering
over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas since Monday and has
done so much rain, more than twenty inches of rain
(28:17):
in some of these low lying locations, so flooding is
obviously the big concern here. Luckily, there's a frontal system
coming along, so as Debbie gets even weaker, likely being
downgraded to a tropical depression this afternoon, it's going to
get picked up by this front and whisked up to
the northeast, making quick moves over Pennsylvania, upstate New York,
(28:37):
parts of New England, and then into Canada.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
That could be threatening the New York State far and Syracuse.
We don't need any of that.
Speaker 6 (28:45):
There could be a pretty.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Good weekend though, so this could be out of there
by the time.
Speaker 9 (28:48):
Yeah, by Friday night could be sloppy, but Saturday morning,
get those deep fright snickers.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
Debbie was never a really dangerous hurricane. Debbie just dumps
a lot of water and creates the risk of flooding. So,
as you mentioned the movement.
Speaker 9 (29:04):
We've got six depths blamed on this storm. No, it's
not nothing. And again and we always know what the
Cat one, it's nothing. You know, at least six people
have lost their lives just in Florida as a result,
oftentimes through car accidents. We know there was a teenager
who was killed when a tree fell on the mobile
home where he was living. You know, so these can
still be potentially dangerous systems that you know, you shouldn't
(29:26):
be having hurricane parties. You should be paying attention to
what's going on.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I was watching a stand up comedian the other day
and he was talking about hurricanes and all the warning
you get. I think what may make some of these
storms more dangerous is that if it was a Cat five,
you know, you would have evacuated, and if you didn't evacuate,
well you were really rolling some pretty dumb dice. But
when you get one like this in between, that's when
stuff can happen, because no one would even suggest that
(29:51):
you need to be more than just prepared. You know,
no one would say evacuation. So you're right to point
that out. I wanted to know if you you probably
didn't catch it. But West in Saint Louis just left
a message and he was talking about, you know how
the gen X we don't scare easy and you know,
we know, you know, we're the most of the workforce
and we're not intimidated by these tough times. I've never
really thought of it generationally. I mean, I guess if
(30:13):
we're talking baby boomers, they're close. Retirement is more of
a reality than career in working years, whereas gen X
it would be. You know, they've they've got their their gill,
their skills, their work ethic, you know, the gig economy,
their their main career. But I have noticed with gen
Z my kids, they seem to be very focused on
(30:35):
this because but they're at the other end. While I'm
approaching retirement, they're approaching planning their career, and they want
to be able to see, Okay, well, if I want
to have a house in a neighborhood like this, and
I want my kids to be able to have what
I had, I'm going to need to be this. I
guess I've never really stopped and thought about how different
(30:56):
generations view the same troubling economic times.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
It's fascinating.
Speaker 9 (31:00):
Well, it's also that that generation may not do as
well as their parents.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I think we're.
Speaker 9 (31:04):
Seeing among gen xers like myself that for the most part,
we're doing better off than our parents as a rule,
but that may not be the case for the subsequent generations.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
And I think that's what's causing a lot of the fear.
Speaker 4 (31:17):
I was watching one of those reels and it was
an old nineteen seventy three commercial for Bonanza.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
Did you ever eat a Bonanza when you were younger?
Speaker 3 (31:25):
No?
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Oh, Bonanza was like great, Well, I say it takouse.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
It was like a little.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
Cheap It was like a cheap steakhouse. But but it
was really good.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
And I mean you went there, you had a little
silver plate, remember, and they would do your tea bone
or your ribbie. You got a potato and the deal
in nineteen seventy three was come to bonanza. They're having
a tea bone with a baked potato, loaded and a
salad for two twenty nine. I mean, you can't get
a kid's meal for that, and you were eating a
steak dinner, you know.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
And that was nineteen seventy three. So when we talk
about doing better than our parents, I don't know. I
mean maybe our salaries are higher, but I don't know
if we're doing better.
Speaker 9 (32:03):
Well, Okay, fifty years of inflation on that, we can you.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Know, let's run that to the computer and figure out
what that tells.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
Yeah, exactly, that's not you can't you can't get a
stake like that for thirty bucks. But yeah, that that's
the thing, you know, And what we saw with earlier
generations is we wanted what our parents had amassed over
decades as soon as we got out of college, and
we would debt our way to get it. Uh, this
generation is going to have a difficult time keeping up
with that, but I never thought of it's fascinating to
(32:29):
view it through the eyes of different generations. That might
be a future story anything you can dig to the
bottom of and see how baby boomers are reacting versus
gen Z or gen X or others, because that could
be very, very interesting.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
That sounds like work.
Speaker 4 (32:46):
Oh yeah, we don't want to do Workngineer. Well, and
I'm on so much cold medicine. Trust me, I'm incapable
of work. Rory with the final story, have a great
Dayble to talk again tomorrow? All right, Well, keep an
eye on We said this yesterday and it sure played
out the rest of the day. The race is on
to define the two unknowns in this candidate, Tim Walls
(33:10):
and JD. Vance, and I think round one went to JD.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Vance.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
There was a much worse day for Tim Walls. But
let's see how that plays out. There is a narrative
that's trying to sell you. Now Trump can't win. Now,
he's losing all the momentum. Now he's disgruddled, and he's
talking to his handlers. He doesn't like the where the
campaign's going, and he's made a big mistake in Jdvans
the amount of narrative play. We'll keep an eye on that.
(33:38):
And can America get to one hundred medals today? They
should as the Olympics continue, and we start the day
with ninety four and we want to be nice tonight
to watch a little football preseason Lions and Giants Thursday
Night football, also Panthers and Patriots to add to the Olympics.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
To get our minds off all of this divisive politics.
We're all in this together. This is your morning show
with Michael Ventel and showIn now, Hm
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