Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You are listening to the Remax real Estate Insights Show,
where you get real talk by real agents, brought to
you by Remacs of Southeastern Michigan. Thank you for joining
us for this Remax real Estate Insights podcast. I am
your host, Janet Schneider, and it's a pleasure to be
with you here today. It's hard to miss that we're
in the middle of a presidential election season, and this
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prompts some folks to wonder what the outcome of the
election may mean for the real estate market. Clearly, we
have been in a situation for the last number of
years and for different reasons and for you know, kind
of different percentages. We've definitely see the price of homes
continue to rise, which has impacted affordability for buyers, no
(00:45):
doubt about that. And we also have seen interest rates
over the last few years have ticked up. That's certainly
of concern for folks. And so as we approach a
presidential election, there is certainly some thought too, well, if
one party versus another gets in, what could this mean?
Are promises that made on the campaign trail, you know,
if they were to come to fruition, you know, how
(01:06):
might that impact things? So We're just going to take
kind of a very broad view of what we know
history says about elections in the housing market and kind
of apply that to where we're at today. So in general,
anytime we hit a presidential election year, in general, what
we see from the housing market, especially the closer you
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get to the actual election day, is people tend to
take a little bit more of a wait and see approach.
They get a little more cautious unless there's something else
going on in the economy to really drive you know,
people to put their home for market or to get
into the market as a buyer, that you know, everybody
takes a little bit more of that kind of wait
and see cautious approach. And I don't think this year
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is really significantly different from that perspective. So now let's
go a little deeper when it comes to home sales.
What historically, you know, we have seen is in a
year year where there's not a presidential election, so just
a regular fall when we get to let's say, you know,
October to November, what we typically see and I say
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this kind of with the asterisk that the last several
years have going to be on anything but typical. If
you will. But if we kind of lump the last
several years, you know, together, we would say, typically going
into October November, there's a downturn in home sales of
just under ten percent, about nine point eight percent. We'll
see a decrease in home sales during that timeframe. In
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a not presidential election year. In a year where there's
a presidential election, what history says is that we see
home sales decline by about fifteen percent. So there definitely
is a different and it goes to that kind of
more wait and see approach. I just mentioned that there
is evidence, statistical evidence that in an election year, folks
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tend to hold back even more than normal as we
head into fall. I mean typically Fall in Michigan tends
to be a little bit of a season a seasonality
to the market anyway, and it's not uncommon for us
to see a bit of a downturn in home sales,
you know, from October to November, November to December, and
a lot of that has to do with seasonality. It's
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going to probably happen pretty much in any any year.
The caveat would be twenty twenty. During COVID, we didn't
necessarily see that but most years typically that's what you see.
The data over the last several elections indicate that it
does make a difference, and that there is a bit
more of a pullback of people looking to buy or
sell until there's some resolution to the to what the
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election is. And nine of the last eleven presidential elections
this dynamic has held true. So I mean, that's there's
pretty consistent, pretty good consistency there, and that would cut
across party line, so it's not like one party has
an advantage over another on that. The other thing that
we want to take a look at is home prices.
(03:58):
You know what is waiting doe And in an election
year seven of the last presidential seven of the last
eight presidential elections, home prices increased the following year. Again
not necessarily surprising on that over time, homes tend to
increase in value. How much you know, seven of the
last eight presidential elections, you know, how much of that
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can be dictated by the election. How much of that
is dictated by market conditions? Probably in the camp saying
a lot more of that has to do with general
market conditions in the economy overall than who gets elected
the only year and these the last eight elections that
home prices did not go up was the year two
thousand and eight, and that certainly makes sense if anybody
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was an adult, you know, and kind of remembers the
market in two thousand and eight. It was a very
challenging time, so not surprising that that would be, you know,
the one, the one election cycle that didn't follow the norm,
if you will. The other thing that we tend to
take a look at, and this certainly has been getting
a lot of you know, press in coverage, and rightfully so,
as mortgage rates in the last eleven presidential elections, mortgage
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rates have decreased in the run up to an election,
and that's considered July to November. Now, interestingly enough, this
presidential election, it'll be interesting to see what happens in
the next couple of weeks because when we were starting
to see that norm, we were starting to see interest
rates come down, actually in advance of the Fed making
(05:27):
their rate cut in September, interest rates were the market
was kind of baking that in. They were already factoring
in the Fed had signaled what they were going to do.
It wasn't nobody was on pins and needles waiting to
see if they were going to do a rate cut.
If anything, it was more how much of a rate
cut that was the question. So the market took that
and kind of digested that, and already interest rates actually
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came down in the lead up to the Fed's announcement
in late September, so we seemed to be on track
at that point in time for mortgage rates declining, you know,
coming into an election. Since the Fed made that announcement, however,
mortgage rates actually have been a little bit more volatile.
They've actually ticked up a little bit. There's certainly time.
We still have a few weeks before the election, so
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they could kind of come back down again. But this
presidential election, I don't know that we're going to see rates,
you know, go down significantly further from where they're at now.
The real interesting thing is, you know, presidential elections will
say there tends to be a lot of fanfare put
around them, you know, do they have a direct impact
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on the housing market. I'd say little. To be to
be fair and honest, I would say that there are
three ways that a presidential election can influence the market,
and most of them are really more subjective than anything else.
The way that a presidential election can impact, you know,
how you view housing or how the housing market ultimately
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you know, does over time is uncertainty. Nobody likes uncertainty,
and so if you're uncertain about the outcome, specifically, if
potentially you think the candidate that you individually support isn't
going to be the one to win, that can cause
some uncertainty in your mind or in your family's mind,
and that's going to color the decisions that you're going
to make. The other thing that goes into that is
(07:16):
policy expectations. If there's an expectation that a policy is
going to change, whether you view that change for the
positive or the negative. If there's an anticipation that there's
a policy change coming, that can again also push you
to buy faster or quicker, or have you hold off.
It could have you factor in how you view this
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is going to be impacted by the market as a whole,
So that can you know, kind of temper your view
on thing. And then there's consumer confidence, and that's to
me very individual in nature. If you're employed and you're
in a good place and you aren't fearing of your job,
your job having any layoffs or any cutbacks or any
salary reductions. If you're in a good place and you
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feel that you're on track to maybe get a pay
raise next year and keep pace with inflation, your confidence
is going to be in a different spot depending on
how you look at things. So when we say a
presidential election, you know, can influence you know, the housing market.
It isn't necessarily that they have their hand on, you know,
the scale to directly impact mortgage rates or directly impact
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how many homes come on the market, but as how
folks view the election and how they view what may
or may not happen after the election tends to either
lead to uncertainty or certainty, you know, on their points
of view. It leads to you know, either yay and
nays on the policy expectations, and it can weigh on
how you know, your own personal consumer confidence, how you
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feel about, you know, buying a home, and how you
feel about the job and being able to afford to
buy a home. So really those are the ways that
we see a presidential election, you know, kind of influencing
the market, if you will. The one thing, if we
kind of look past the election and we look into
twenty twenty five there is reason for optimism. You know,
(09:03):
the last couple of years have been probably challenging is
a good word, or complex, depending on how you want
to look at it. If you're a buyer. You know,
interest rates have been a little more volatile overall. You know,
they've they've come down from you know, where they were
at times last year or earlier this year. That's certainly
welcome news. But the reality of it is is that
(09:23):
about eighty six percent of existing mortgages in the US
have a rate of six percent or lower. And since
interest rates right now are still a little over six percent,
not every seller is going to be potential seller, i
should say, is going to be ready to put their
home on the market. We know that as rates, you know,
kind of dip into that upper five category, we think
(09:45):
that we'll start to bring some more inventory to the market. Reading,
you know, a lot of the different mortgage industry experts,
a lot of them seem to agree that we will
probably end this year with mortgage rates in the low sixes,
maybe right around six six point one, six point two.
You know, right now, that certainly seems to be where
things are likely to track. And next year, the expectation
(10:09):
is is perhaps they will be able to come down
into the upper fives. Haven't run or seen a lot
of people suggesting things going significantly lower than that. So
if somebody's sitting there and waiting for, oh, I'm going
to wait for the three percent rates to come back,
you're likely going to be waiting a long long time.
But if we can get some rates to you know,
get down to six, get into five point nine to
(10:30):
five point eight, it is likely that we'll see some
folks that have been hanging on to their homes that
you know, that we're waiting for the rates to move
a little bit, you'll get into the market. So that's
a potential positive for for next year for sure. And
what we do know is that home prices, you know,
barring some you know, economic conditions we don't see coming
right now, is home rates are continued are likely to
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continue to rise. The price for homes you know, are
going to rise. What we do think is going to
happen is that the pace you know, how much they
rise is going to moderate a little bit, and we'll
see how that fares out. But the outlook overall for
next year is if we can keep mortgage rates at
a reasonable rate that allows buyers to get into the market.
It allows the sellers to, you know, maybe cash in
(11:13):
their equity and do their downsizing or their upsizing or
their right sizing, whatever the move is for them, allow
them to do that. But there is some optimism around
what the housing market can look like next year. What
we do know is that home sales overall nationwide are
expected to rise, which it's going to be almost hard
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not to because we're kind of bottoming out right now.
In twenty twenty three, about four point eight million home
sales were done in the US in twenty twenty four.
Right now looks as though we're on track for about
the same four point seven four point eight expectation is
for twenty twenty five is that those numbers will start
to climb up again. And then taking a look at
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home prices, they pulled a bunch of experts I think
it was ten or twelve different industry experts on that,
and what the average came out to be is for
home prices to go up on average two point six
percent next year. It'll be I think it could be
potentially more than that, especially if we get to the
point where there is more inventory that comes to the
(12:16):
market in interest rates, you know, get near six or
maybe dip into the high fives. That is going to
bring a few more buyers that have been sitting on
the fence out, which is likely to lead to increased competition.
With increased competition with buyers tend to come, you know,
those bidding wars or the multiple bids where people are
willing to give asking or slightly above. So I mean,
I do think there's going to be a variety of
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reasons why we could potentially see a little bit of
that next year. What we know in this current market
is that sellers need to be realistic about the price
they put on their home. Things are. The market is
still moving from a historical perspective, relatively quick. We are
still around thirty ish days you know for a home
(12:57):
to sell. We still have under a two month supply
of inventory. So while it may feel like things are
sitting a little bit longer, and we may may feel
like things have slowed a little bit, and to some degree,
they have, when we look at it in a historical perspective,
this market is still very much competitive if you're if
you are a buyer, So that's kind of where we
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see things right now. Again, from the perspective of this
being a presidential election year, I would always say, pay
more attention to what the Fed is doing. Pay more
even though they don't directly impact UH mortgage rates, they
are you know, kind of a leading indicator of where
ultimately things tend to go. I would say, you'll pay
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attention to Treasury bills, pay attention to unemployment forecast and
the different things that are going to drive this economy,
and those things are going to likely have a much
more real factor is to how the housing market goes
than anything either candidate is going to say, whatever their
plans may be, whatever, because what they plan and what
they're actually able to get you know, done or often
(14:02):
too very very different things. And that's not a slam
on either party. That's just the reality the reality of Washington.
You can have great intentions on programs to you know,
help buyers or this, that and the other thing, but
what you're able to actually do when you get there
often isn't quite the same. So I wouldn't put necessarily
a ton of stock in what is said and what
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is promised. I would put more stock into, you know,
how the economy is actually doing overall. And you know,
pay more attention to that because those things are going
to far greater impact the market. So hopefully that's a
nice little kind of review overview of how the housing
market has reacted in past presidential elections. It's not uncommon
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for home sales to slow. We're seeing that, it's not
uncommon for buyers to take maybe a little bit more
of a cautious approach. We're definitely seeing that it's not
going to be uncommon for prices to continue to rise.
Working on the housing ports housing reports right now for
the month of September, and we're definitely seeing that, you know,
prices continue to rise. Home sales in many areas fell,
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but prices continue to kind of do their slow, methodical
march forward, and we don't see anything at this point
in time changing that. So hope you have a great October.
I hope that everyone is able to get out and
vote or vote early however it is you choose to
do it, and we'll see what the election holds, who wins,
and what it does for the housing market in the future.
(15:28):
Take care and we look forward to talking with you
again soon. We hope you enjoy today's episode. Don't forget
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