Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk 1st round of the college football playoffs. Plus, the guys also discuss Army vs navy and best bets.
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open the show with quick banter before reviewing their 2-0 best-bet week, noting Ohio State–Indiana unfolded exactly as anticipated: low scoring, defenses strong, offenses vanilla by design, and neither team revealing much ahead of the postseason. They discuss how little the matchup changed their power ratings and then touch on Texas’ playoff snub, criticizing the committee’s logic and the incentives it creates. Turning to Army–Navy, they view the number as fair, lean to the under and the dog based on service-academy tendencies, and expect a slow, clock-draining, defensive game where Navy may win but Army should stay inside the number. They move to Oregon vs. James Madison, where Oregon is a large favorite at home. Lonte argues JMU’s trench issues against Troy signal major problems in Autzen, though he prefers Oregon team-total overs due to their explosive home scoring. He expects Oregon to blitz early, build a big lead, and possibly allow a late backdoor if backups enter, while JMU’s QB Barnett is dangerous enough to score in garbage time. Griffin agrees the over makes sense given Oregon’s likelihood of dominating early and easing late. Next is Texas A&M vs. Miami, with A&M a small home favorite. They discuss Miami’s strong close to the season, its road wins under pressure, and its argument for playoff inclusion. Both hosts criticize the ACC’s decision-making but see Miami as undervalued. Lonte highlights Miami’s defense, pass rush, and success vs. mobile QBs; he sees A&M as overrated, weakened late in the year, and fortunate in several wins. Griffin questions A&M’s offense under Marcel Reed and doubts he can exploit Miami’s secondary. Both lean Miami plus the points. They then cover Ole Miss vs. Tulane, a playoff rematch the committee could have avoided. Ole Miss, breaking in a new head coach but retaining its staff and play-calling continuity, already beat Tulane 45–10 and has major motivational edges: first playoff appearance, first home playoff game, and desire to prove stability post-Lane Kiffin. Tulane’s coach is outbound, and its offense lacks firepower. Lonte expects another decisive Ole Miss win and sees them as undervalued relative to Oregon’s larger spread. Finally, they analyze Alabama at Oklahoma, with Alabama a small road favorite. Lonte expects Alabama to close as the favorite, believing sharp money will land on the Tide despite their poor showing vs. Georgia. He argues Oklahoma’s offense is limited, over-dependent on QB Mateer’s legs, and unlikely to exploit Alabama vertically, while Alabama’s run defense and preparation time favor a tighter, more disciplined Tide performance. Griffin questions how OU’s home field and Alabama’s inconsistency factor in, but both see Alabama as the higher-rated team despite the earlier head-to-head loss. They close with best bets: Lonte on Ole Miss −17.5, projecting another blowout; Griffin on Miami +3.5, citing matchup advantages and skepticism of A&M’s offense. Promo code information and closing remarks follow, encouraging listeners to engage on social channels and look ahead to more bowl-game analysis.
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