RJ bell, Steve Fezzik and Scott Seidenberg talk NFL Preseason and much more.
RJ Bell opens with humor, likening obvious seasonal choices to betting decisions, and transitions into a sales pitch for pregame season picks, stressing that buying early is always best. He notes past success from cappers including A.J. Hoffman at +75 units, Goodfella at +50, Shaker with 20–26, and Steve Fezzik with 10 of 12 winning years, though Fezzik is down this year with 30 pending bets. A podcast coupon TOUCHDOWN75 offers $75 off. Light conversation covers Fezzik “holding down the fort,” movies like Dances with Wolves and Tin Cup, and McKenzie’s trip to Chicago. Shifting to football, Fezzik reports a preseason week one scoring surge: 14 overs, 2 unders, 44.9 points per game, about eight points above totals and eight higher than last year’s week one. Yardage and first down numbers barely rose, suggesting other causes, chiefly a new kickoff rule moving touchbacks to the 35-yard line. Week one saw an 80% return rate, same as last year’s first week, but higher variance from returns creates more scoring opportunities than uniform touchbacks. Another factor is improved field goal prep—kickers now get balls earlier—producing 88.8% accuracy on 63 attempts, including 18 makes from 50+ yards and a 70-yarder, up from 86% last year. RJ and Fezzik argue this, combined with kickoff variance, will cut punts and boost points. Fezzik advises betting overs now before public momentum inflates totals. They analyze betting market evolution, noting early-week line moves remain sharp but late-week ones have softened due to more public money from legalized wagering. Bookmaker practices limiting sharps quickly are discussed alongside anecdotes from Pinnacle’s Henry about reading bettors. Strategic implications emerge for team totals and props tied to strong kickers and returners. RJ prefers season-long overs before adjustment; Fezzik expects kickoff returns to stay near 85% in the regular season. RJ stresses finding betting niches you enjoy. Scott shares success in “longest rush/reception” props using YAC and missed tackle data. Preseason takeaways include that league-wide rule effects matter regardless of personnel, while starter-vs-starter glimpses gain value as preseason progresses. Fezzik’s best bet is Detroit +3.5 vs Miami, citing the Lions’ third game and 8 days rest against Miami’s second game, short week, and back-to-back road travel. RJ outlines how Hall of Fame game participants excel late in week one due to conditioning depth. Scott’s best bet is Eagles -4.5 vs Browns, exploiting Cleveland’s depleted QB depth versus standout Eagles backup Tanner McKee. Scott presents an offensive tackle composite ranking from PFF and pass block win rate to find teams facing weak tackles; 49ers rank second easiest, making Nick Bosa a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year at +1500, sack leader at +1100, or 15+ sacks at +250. Using the same method, the Giants face the third toughest tackle slate, leading RJ to target under on Brian Burns sacks. Discussion notes good defensive lines facing strong tackles make sack production harder. They close with an announcement that Scott will appear less often due to new opportunities but will return during the season, ending with thanks, a Johnny Cash anecdote, and Fezzik quoting Cash lyrics.
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