RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers provide a in-depth NFL Week 8 breakdown. The guys cover the biggest picks and Dave Essler also provides a best bet.
Player Statistics and Analysis
The hosts touch on several players. Mackenzie Rivers mentions his 57% success rate over nearly 600 NBA plays, comparing his performance to that of basketball greats like Michael Jordan. Later, Scott Seidenberg analyzes the Bengals’ defense and mentions Sheldon Rankin's role in improving the team’s performance. The focus is also on Joe Burrow's improbable 50-yard run and the team’s success, partly due to fortunate plays like kickoff returns.
Devonta Adams is brought up by Scott Seidenberg for his inspiring post-game speech following the Jets' loss, which steers the conversation into a breakdown of team morale and leadership.
Team Statistics and Insights
Steve Fezzik offers strong opinions on the Philadelphia Eagles, his "five-weight" best bet, believing the Eagles, despite being underdogs, will outperform the Bengals. He critiques the line, asserting that the Bengals' home field advantage does not warrant the spread of 2.5 points. The Eagles are compared favorably to the Bengals, with Fezzik expressing confidence in the Eagles' superiority, citing their dominant performance against the Giants.
Further, RJ Bell adds insight into why Cincinnati remains favored in betting circles, emphasizing the persistence of analytics in propping up the Bengals. However, he also notes that these metrics don't account for some fluke plays that favor the team.
The Bengals are likened to San Francisco as teams that continually defy expectations in betting markets. Discussion around San Francisco's consistent support from bettors centers on love for their analytics-driven success.
Quote Analysis
Steve Fezzik (5:53) - "I'm sticking with the Philadelphia Eagles... plus the two and a half against the Bengals."
Fezzik’s confidence in the Eagles is rooted in comparing their recent performances with the Bengals, even in spite of the spread. His analysis implies that the Eagles’ form is stronger than what the odds reflect.
Scott Seidenberg (7:24) - "The Bengals were my best bet last week because of the defense being healthy... this is a different defense."
Scott reinforces his view that the Bengals' defense has drastically improved, largely due to players like Sheldon Rankin, which elevates their standing. He contrasts weeks when players were absent and how their return boosts defensive stats.
Steve Fezzik (8:26) - "Their schedule today is pretty cupcake... New England, Carolina, Giants, Cleveland—no murderer's row."
Fezzik critiques the Bengals’ schedule, implying that their success might be inflated due to weaker opposition. This counters the idea that their record is purely based on merit.
Key Bets and Predictions
Philadelphia Eagles: Steve’s top bet, seeing value in their +2.5 spread, believing they are mispriced against Cincinnati.
Cleveland Browns vs. Ravens: Scott sees value in Cleveland +9, citing Jameis Winston's impact as quarterback, while considering the Ravens’ poor pass defense (ranked 4th worst in EPA against the pass).
He backs this with a trend involving road favorites covering two consecutive games, which tends to regress.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cardinals: The Dolphins are highlighted for their use of motion in offense, particularly when Tua Tagovailoa is playing, achieving 6.7 yards per play. Scott anticipates the Dolphins will exploit the Cardinals' defensive weakness against motion, predicting a strong win.
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