RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers talk Preseason to NFL Week 1 best bets.
The latest Dream Podcast episode, “PreSeasonPalooza, 15 Bets!!,” is a classic mix of sharp betting systems, insider debates, and off-the-rails humor, the kind of show that feels like sitting in a sportsbook bar where the conversation drifts from ATS systems to Larry Bird versus Magic Johnson. RJ Bell opens by reminding listeners about the special Pregame discounts and touting the records of handicappers like AJ Hoffman, Goodfella, and others, before pivoting into the heart of the show: an unusually strong batch of preseason Week 3 betting angles. McKenzie Rivers kicks things off with a light story about the Taste of Chicago festival, which leads RJ into a tangent about Stevie Wonder’s 2008 performance and the eternal debate over Chicago deep dish pizza, the type of side story that illustrates how much the Dream Pod thrives on detail and memory. From there, the real substance begins.
RJ emphasizes that this preseason slate may be the best group of plays he has seen, with twelve recommendations and five best bets, while McKenzie contributes three researched totals for Week 1, giving listeners over fifteen actionable wagers. McKenzie’s primary research zeroes in on the effect of quarterbacks who do not play a single snap in the preseason. Since the NFL moved to a three-game preseason in 2021, those teams have gone 27–12 to the under in Week 1, with an average ATS margin of –2.6 points. Their team totals also fall short, averaging –3.2 compared to expectations. RJ pushes back, calling the no-snap approach “idiotic,” arguing that football players improve by playing football, but McKenzie notes the trend has only grown stronger. They cite teams like the Cowboys, Eagles, Buccaneers, Falcons, Rams, Bills, and Ravens as Week 1 under candidates, especially in games like Cowboys vs Eagles, Buccaneers vs Falcons, and Ravens vs Bills.
In classic forum fashion, the pod spins into a debate about Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, with McKenzie insisting the numbers favor Manning’s brilliance and RJ countering that Brady’s postseason success and rings will age better historically. From there they wander into Bird vs Magic, Bill Walton’s brief dominance, and Gilbert Arenas’ scoring outbursts, demonstrating how sports arguments naturally expand. Eventually RJ reins it back in with his own powerful Week 3 preseason system: play favorites who lost both straight up and against the spread in Week 2. Since 2021 these teams are 14–5–1 ATS, but the real gold is in the first quarter, where they are effectively undefeated with massive scoring margins. At home the trend is even stronger, with a 10–1 ATS record and a combined +180 point margin. RJ breaks down which teams qualify this year, including Kansas City, Detroit, the Jets, and Dallas at home, plus Bills, Steelers, Raiders, and Chargers on the road. He highlights home teams in the first quarter as the true best bet subset, noting an 11–0 record with an average +9 point differential.
The conversation shifts to how small sample size intersects with logical consistency, with RJ stressing that this system passes the test because it makes sense up and down the spectrum. McKenzie adds that home momentum explains why the advantage continues beyond the opening quarter. As always, the pod mixes sharp betting insight with humor, from round robin discussions to jokes about Britney Spears movies on Easter. The episode closes with RJ previewing Pregame’s content schedule: the annual Quarterback Draft, the Season Win Totals Over/Under show, and weekly Dream Previews through the Super Bowl. The takeaway for bettors is clear: Week 1 unders for teams with zero preseason QB snaps, and Week 3 first quarter plays for favorites off a loss, especially at home, form the strongest edges going into the season.
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