Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk MLB betting for Saturday and Sunday. The guys also give out best bets.
š Key Points (Statistical Takeaways & Betting Angles)
ā¾ Chris Paddock fade: Paddock hasnāt passed the 4th inning in either start, giving up 9 and 3 ERs.
š Jackson Jobe walk issue: 7 walks in 9 IP across two starts signals command concern.
š Christopher Sanchez velocity spike: Up to 97ā98 MPH, potentially unsustainable, but promising.
š” Guardiansā home record: 57ā33 since 2023, undefeated at home this year.
š Mikolas vs. Phillies: Cards are 0ā4 in Mikolasā starts vs. PHI since 2023, losing each by multiple runs.
š„ Jordan Hicksā early success: 6 shutout innings vs. Astros and 5.1 IP/3 ER vs. Mariners.
š£ Corbin Burns walk issue: 7 BB in 11 IP with 6 ER in two road startsānot vintage Burns.
š¬ļø Weather edge in Cleveland & Chicago: Cold temps favor under totals (~40°F, wind in).
š§ Astros offensive spark: 14 runs on Friday may mark awakeningāsuspicion persists about pitching.
š¦ Roki Sasaki control concern: Great stuff but struggles with location, similar to Yamamotoās 2024 start.
š Summary of Content
[Tigers vs. Twins (0:02ā7:01)]
Munaf and Griffin agree Chris Paddock is a fade (ERA over 10 in two starts). Tigers' Jackson Jobe has command issues (7 BB in 9 IP). Lean: Tigers ML + first 5 over.
[Phillies vs. Cardinals (7:03ā10:47)]
Sanchez touted for Cy Young by some; rebounding after Dodgers outing. Mikolas has terrible history vs. PHI (0ā4, run line failures). Munaf's best bet: Phillies RL.
[Giants vs. Yankees (10:47ā14:20)]
Giants lauded for road performance. Yankeesā Will Warren expected to make final start. Hicks solid so far. Lean: Giants ML, Under due to cold/wind.
[Blue Jays vs. Orioles (14:33ā18:14)]
Povich has poor history vs. TOR (0ā2, 8.38 ERA). Barrios rebounded in last 2 starts. Winds in Camden Yards mild. Leans: Over + Blue Jays ML.
[Nationals vs. Marlins (18:16ā21:32)]
Sandy Alcantara hasn't returned to form; 4 BB in last outing. Trevor Williams quietly effective. Lean: Nationals ML + Over 7.5.
[Red Sox vs. White Sox (21:32ā24:55)]
Cold Chicago temps favor Under. Fitz surprisingly strong; Perez stellar (1 ER in 12 IP). Lean: White Sox ML + Under.
[Braves vs. Rays (24:57ā27:59)]
Rasmussen solid but Braves underdogs? Surprising. Smith-Shawver showing promise. Griffin leans Braves ML. Munaf prefers Under 8.5.
[Royals vs. Guardians (28:00ā30:14)]
Lorenzen serviceable, Ortiz vulnerable. Guardians elite at home (63% win rate since 2023). Griffinās best bet: Guardians ML.
[Angels vs. Astros (30:14ā34:29)]
Astros may be waking up offensively. Gusto untested. Tyler Anderson prone to blow-ups. Lean: Over 8.5, slight lean Astros ML.
[Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (37:19ā40:50)]
Burns has 7 BB in 2 startsāuncharacteristic. Chad Patrick has impressed. Leans: First 5 Over 4.5, stay away from sides.
[Rockies vs. Padres (40:50ā44:53)]
Kyle Hart and Dolander both unproven. Padres offense capable. Lean: Game Over, especially if Padresā bats wake up.
[Cubs vs. Dodgers (44:53ā48:59)]
Dodgers crushed Cubs in Tokyo and now in LA. Ben Brown wild (9 BB in 11 IP). Munaf leans Dodgers TT Over 4.5, Griffin likes Cubs RL.
[Roki Sasaki Forecast (50:43ā53:20)]
Griffin expects short outings; control needs work. Fade spots will appear, but risky without clear signals.
[Yamamoto Trend (53:20ā54:12)]
Yamamoto now dominating. Reinforces transition curve for Japanese pitchers.
[Rangers vs. Mariners (54:13ā56:47)]
Rocker inconsistent; Wu elite at T-Mobile (10ā1). Rangers hit Wu hard in past, but game likely Under 7.
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