September 19, 2024 • 34 mins
Understanding interest rate cuts
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, I'm Michael, and your morning show has heard on
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so grateful you came for the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Enjoy well two three, starting your morning off right, A
new way of talk, a new way of hunter Stead
because we're in the Deid.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
This is your morning show with Michael Bill Chrum.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
The National Teamster's leadership declined to endorse the Canada even
though Trump won the internal poll fifty eight to thirty
one percent. I mean, you think if they're going to
represent their members and their workers, that would lead to
an endorsement too, but can't. But are the Democrats still
the party of the working class? They can't even get
a teamster's endorsement. Former President Trump was in New York
Long Island to be exact, a very large, safe, large
(01:01):
enthusiastic crowd, and the President said he thinks New York's
in play and he can win p Diddy's still behind bars,
no bail being allowed. Tupperware talk about a sign of
the times. Tupperware is filing.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
For bankrupt Oh kidding, We still use Dupperware.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
It comes to my door. But yeah, And the Fed
didn't cut a quarter. They cut a half and indicated
another quarter is coming twice before the end of the year.
After that half, it would seem as though they're focused
more on the troubling jobs reports and perhaps even the
housing crisis, more than the inflation rate.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
But what do we know?
Speaker 1 (01:37):
What does this mean? Why does the FED even exist?
What will these cuts mean dollars and cents to you
and your family? We always turn to our economic and
money whiz David Boonson, who will not be giving us
ambient sound of Central Park today, which I'm very disappointed.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
David.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
What do you make of all this? I mean, we
know what the news makes of it. Most people don't
know what to make of it. I guess it cuts good.
I don't know how or what it's going to translate
to when you see all of this to the mind
of financial and economic expertise, what did yesterday's that point mean?
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Well, it didn't.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
Mean much to me from the vantage point.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Of being an investment manager and financial professional, because everybody
knew it was coming, and whether it had been twenty
five yesterday and fifty next month or vice versa, which
is what it is.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Now going to be, is irrelevant.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
The FED has basically been priced in through the bond market,
real life money, trillions of dollars telling you that we're
going to be down one percent in the FED funds
rate by the end of the year, So the exact
timing and specifics of how we got there were less important.
You know, it's funny when you say, is it I
(02:48):
guess it's a good thing. I think an interesting issue
people are wrestling with about whether or not a rate
cuts a good or bad thing, because I think it
ends up accidentally asking the wrong question, which is not
what did the FED do? But why did it happen?
And not just this rate cut, but any rate cut
throughout history. The reason that a central bank is cutting
(03:13):
rates or raising rates is what's important. There can be
reasons that are good for a rate cut. There could
be reasons that are bad. It could mean, you know,
generally a lot of times you're in a recession when
they're cutting rates. I mean, who you know, they cut
rates to zero percent in two thousand and eight. Did
two and eight feel good to anybody?
Speaker 5 (03:32):
That a good time? You know?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So that this is no two thousand and eight. We're
not in a recession. But in this particular case, it's
the fad thing. They've been very, very tight for a
couple of years, and it's starting to leak into credit
markets and other areas that they're going to do damage,
and so they're trying to get in front of it.
But the jury is still out as to how this
(03:56):
ends up playing out in the months ahead and years ahead.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
All Right, I'd look at this and I say, you know,
as far as getting inflation close to to or around two,
they've been pretty successful. But we do have a housing crisis,
and we do have some troubling jobs reports. This to
me looked like they were obviously more concerned about the
jobs aspect and the housing crisis, and so they thought
the half was necessary.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Am I reading too much into it?
Speaker 5 (04:23):
Well?
Speaker 4 (04:24):
I don't think that that it necessarily speaks to doing
half now versus a quarter or later. I think that
that just has to do with what they thought was
the best signal to market. So there's something that is
called forward guidance that Alan Greenspan made popular, where the
FED use it as a policy tool. In other words,
it's not just simply reporting like journalism. They think it
(04:47):
is efficacious and monetary policy to telegraph to markets what
you are thinking, what you want to be doing, what
people can expect. And so then financial actors, investors, developers, lenders, borrowers,
they act accordingly, and so you actually get some sort
(05:07):
of economic activity out of the guidance the FED gave.
And the FED thought it was stronger guidance to do
half a point versus a quarter point.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
There's a real.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Irony because I think you're right that housing is a
big consideration here, and a year or two ago people would.
Speaker 5 (05:22):
Have said and been right.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
These low rates are creating the affordability crisis, and housing
low cost of borrowing is pushed prices up so much.
Speaker 5 (05:34):
This is a disaster and it isn't.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
It was, and the FED did create that housing price
in place and really helped facilitate it. But I paradoxically
rates now have to go lower to solve the issue
because there are too many sellers that are anchored to
a high price, that are paying a very low mortgage
rate themselves. They don't want to sell their home when
(06:00):
they have a two or three percent mortgage on it
and go borrow for their next house at six or
seven and so now in order to unfreeze the market,
that that actually has to lower rates. Now some will say, well,
this is going to make prices go up again. I
don't happen to agree for the simple reason that I
don't think they can go much high.
Speaker 6 (06:19):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
No, they're just simply already on affordable.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Yeah, but uh, David Bonston's our money guru and economists,
it's also a theologian, and from time to time that
springs out. All right, So what is the magic number
to get things moving? I've always felt like, you know,
if they can get because right now this half brings
it to somewhere around four and three quarters and five,
which means mortgage rates might start getting into the sixes.
(06:45):
But where does it have to get to really address
that and get moving Probably four nine to nine.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
You know, So are we heading in the right direction?
Speaker 1 (06:54):
And for somebody listening, when can we expect this to
start getting homes on the market and getting them selling
and moving again? Probably somewhere around there, so probably somewhere
around next spring, right.
Speaker 4 (07:06):
I think that's probably about right. I wouldn't call it
a magic number because I don't think it is one.
I know you mean it as a bigger speech, but
you know this is something that is not totally scientific.
I think you're right though, that where the borrowing costs
consideration helps unfreeze the market is probably something with a foe.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
In front of it.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
The bigger issue, though, even than that, ultimately is getting
more supply built. And that's something I talked to you
about on the show several times. That, of course, is
not a federal reserve issue, that's not an interest rate issue.
We have got to get more houses built. Kamala Harris
think she wants to give borrowers and buyers twenty five
(07:48):
thousand dollars subsidy doesn't get houses built. You know, President
Trump said he's going to solve housing. He said he's
going to solve it. It's going to be better it's
ever been. He's going to fix it.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
It's going to be amazing.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
But nothing specific.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Yeah, well, unless you call that specific amazing, the best
that's ever been, that sounds pretty good.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
I guess as far as the average person. I mean,
what America is really struggling was is they've been paying
for inflation with debt and credit. Half a point is
going to make a big difference on a credit card
that's already twenty eight percent. How much of this has
much ado about nothing and far more about the future,
at least the near future in the next six months
(08:27):
before you really can start seeing like how much of
this is really real for somebody listening.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
Where things are about to get better?
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Because as long as you're spending, as long as you're
dumping trillions into the or billions for sure into a
market unearned, that's inflation area. As long as you don't
address a debt, I mean, a lot of this isn't
going to go away. So how do we avoid this
as much to do about nothing?
Speaker 4 (08:49):
Well, first of all, as I've talked to you about
a lot, I don't agree that the debt is inflationary.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Unfortunately, think it's worse than that.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Inflation is when there's too much money chasing too few goods.
And I think that what happens is you get too
few goods and you need more goods, and so where
in theory people aren't going to see it a regular
middle class family looking at their credit card statement, looking
at their mortgage statement doesn't get data points telling them
how many goods and services are being created.
Speaker 5 (09:18):
In the economy.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
But where lower rates theoretically help is if there is
a supply side benefit that helps promote more production. And
I think that the excessive government debt is just simply
not related to the FED.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
It's related to.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
The Congress spending money that's crazy, the President's signing and
spending in the law, the people demanding it, and those things,
over time do create deflationary.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Pressures that are awful, just simply awful subpart economic growth.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
That's what they're threading a government shut down right now.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
And you know as well as I do, if it
takes them a week or a week and a half,
they're going to solve it.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
And guess what we're all going to lose, be a
little bit more in debt.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Final thirty seconds, I wanted to ask it to you
this way, when you're watching television or you're listening to
the radio, what makes you want to scream at the
TV or the radio? What people aren't getting about all
of this just curious?
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Well, Michael, you mentioned a theological interest of mine. There's
a doctrine called sanctification, where we grow in our faith
over time. And I've been sanctified enough.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
I no longer yell at the TV or radio at all.
But what used to make me want to yell at
the TV and radio.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Was outlandish, unapologetic media bias. I am now numbed to it,
and therefore no longer yell about it.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
David Bonson from the Bonson Financial Group, our economist and
MONEYZ thank you so much for joining.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
We'll talk next week.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
I was a pleasure.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
You got it sixteen minutes after the hour.
Speaker 8 (10:47):
Your conjectuating pretty much on five stories of the day.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
So we all look at.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
The electoral college map and one of the big stories
you're going to hear this is kind of your look
for for the day.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Everybody's going to be playing them.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
Hey, Pennsylvania is a dead heat, Kamala is leading slightly
in Wisconsin and Michigan. And that's the way the race goes.
Is if Georgia and North Carolina aren't key, is if
Arizona and Nevada aren't key. But we went through the
electoral college map with David Zanati. We have it two
sixty nine to two sixty nine, looking at a district
in Nebraska or something shakes, meaning all Donald Trump needs
(11:25):
to do is win one of them Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
Now I don't know how much faith you put in polls,
but that would suggest, you know, hey, use RFK Junior,
use Telsey Gabbard, use jd Vance. Have them living in Michigan,
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Have the President going back and forth
to sure things up in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia in
(11:49):
North Carolina. And yet where was the president in New York?
Why he thinks he can win there? Brian Shook as
our Road to the White.
Speaker 9 (11:58):
House, Road to the White House twenty twenty four. Former
President Trump says the state of New York will vote
with him in November.
Speaker 10 (12:07):
It hasn't been done for a long time, but we
are going to win New York.
Speaker 9 (12:16):
Security was very tight at the rally in Uniondale Wednesday,
the first since an apparent assassination attempt this past weekend
in Florida. New York officials said earlier reports about explosives
being found near the site were false. The state has
voted Democratic in the last nine elections. Trump also said
(12:36):
during the rally he felt God saved his life so
he can make America great again. In Washington, I'm Brian Shook.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So you got employees working from home, and you assume
they're working, and they are, but not necessarily on work.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Tammy Trijuilo has more.
Speaker 11 (12:54):
Survey monkey poled over three thousand full time workers in
the US last month and found that nearly half of
those who work from home are doing laundry and other
items on their to do lists. About one third said
they run errands while remote working, while others like to
take a nap. About seventeen percent said they watched TV
or play video games. A survey also showed a lot
of multitasking during zoom calls, with nearly a third admitting
(13:17):
they have used the bathroom during a zoom call. I'm
Tammy trhiel.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
Well, didy and going home.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
In fact, he's got a new home and all attempts
to try to get him bail didn't work again.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Kristen Marks reports.
Speaker 12 (13:28):
Combs had appealed the first judges ruling that he'd be
detained until he faces trial on sex trafficking and racketeering
charges in federal court in Manhattan Wednesday, his lawyers highlighted
the deplorable conditions at Metropolitan Detention Center and proposed a
fifty million dollar bill package that included round the clock
monitoring and no access to a phone or internet. However,
(13:49):
Judge Robin Tarnowski agreed with prosecutors that Combs would threaten
and intimidate witnesses in the case. The fifty four year
old is accused of forcing women to have sex with
prostitutes during drug and induced so called freak ops. He
faces up to life in prison if convicted on all charges.
Kristen Mark's NBC News Radio all.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
Right, Starbucks bed and Jerry's I cant think a lot
of people, dicks sporting goods have done a lot of
things to offend me, my values, my beliefs, and I
boycott Target. Should but there's just something so darn relaxing
about going to Target.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I don't know why. I just love Target.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So did an eight year old little girl who wanted
to go so bad she took it upon herself to
drive there.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Michael Kastner has this amazing story.
Speaker 8 (14:35):
Police in Bedford, Ohio, released dashcam video Tuesday of a
vehicle that was, in their words, swerving everywhere in the
Cleveland suburb. On Sunday, police caught up with a vehicle
in the parking lot of a target and found the
driver was an eight year old girl who had been
reported missing earlier that morning. Authority say the girl is
too young to be charged criminally, and they are grateful
(14:57):
no one was injured. I'm Michael, you can laugh about.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
That because of that, it's obviously very dangerous for an
eight year old to try to this.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I remember my brother and I have to remember what
Vic would have been then. I think thirteen, and my
brother Bobby would have been eleven, which would have made
me nine, which would have made me fourth grade, which
would have been about right for where we were living
in Arlington Heights. And I'll never forget. My parents were
gone and my brother Vick said, my dad had a
brand new oh what was it, the Ford, not LTD?
(15:28):
It was another one I can't remember, mid seventies Sedan anyway,
So he had this brand new car.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Yeah. My brother goes, come on, let's take it for
a ride.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
And you know, I was always the logical one that
was like, hey, this isn't a good idea, right, Well,
Vic on the driver's seat.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
He backed out.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
You know, I thought, oh no, this could be fun,
because remember, you forget the mindset of a kid. You're
limited by where your feet can take you. Or maybe
later when you get a bike, but that's basically getting
you around the neighborhood.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
You can't really go to cross town or to other towns.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
So Vic pulls out of the neighborhood in this car
is driving so smooth, and Vick's doing remarkably well. We
passed mister Zeno and Wade. He kind of waved, thinking
it was my dad, but then he kind of gave
it a double take. We're all over town all day
long driving this car, and I'm like proud of my
brother thirteen years old. Man, he's driving like a king,
doing well, and I'm thinking to myself, you know, we
(16:18):
could we could.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Get a hot dog downtown arring to nights if we
want to. Anyway, So we drive around for about two hours.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I get back to the house and he's pulling it
into the garage and misses, oh no, and takes out
not the garage door because it was up, takes out
half of the wall.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Oh my goodness, in the garage.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
And then we're all standing there like well, this isn't repairable.
What are we gonna do? Yeah, and you know my
parents would always throw around, You're gonna get the beating
of your life. Oh yeah, Vic got the beating of
his life.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
This is your Morning Show with Michael Deltrona.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
You could say that this race is boiling down to
inside or outsider again, and this Harris perceived as an
insider abortion versus the economy or the border crisis. In
all the Democrats seemingly have a map that's deadlocked, but
a candidate who's not nearly beyond the hype, sugar highs
(17:16):
and theatrics what Joe Biden was. In fact, they find
themselves with a worse black vote problem, a worse youth
vote problem, a worse working class vote problem. And it's real.
And yesterday was a great example. I'll give you case
in point. The Teamsters voted earlier, Joe Biden led forty
(17:38):
four to thirty six percent over Donald Trump. Yesterday, their
internal polling revealed fifty eight percent support Trump, thirty one
percent support Harris. They went from being up Biden eight
to down twenty seven. That's a thirty four point swing
(17:59):
from Biden to Harris. And now in essence, you have
fifty eight percent supporting Trump, and yet the Union itself
won't endorse Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
That Scott you asking does the union.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Really represent its workers because they don't with this, And
do the Democrats really represent the working class American?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
This would suggest they don't.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
By the way, other troubling polls Gallop showing Trump leading
forty six to forty four percent with approval rating two percent,
but among independents forty four to thirty five percent. So
we've got a deadlocked map. But we got a working
class problem for the Democrats, we got an independent voting
problem for the Democrats, and we got a black and youth.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
Vote problem for the Democrats. Abortions got to erase a
lot of that for them to get a win.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
And the Fed cut the rate by not a quarter
but a half. And where was Donald Trump in New York?
And what was he saying? I think I can win
in New York. And there's a new scam out there
could affect millions. Want to make sure it doesn't affect you.
And yes, it involves artificial intelligence. Sarah Rayales here with
that story.
Speaker 13 (19:05):
Good morning Erin, Good morning Michael. Yes, this is a
big one. And knowledge is power, which is why I
like talking it, talking about it on the powerful airwaves
of our heart. And what we know is that artificial
intelligence is cloning voices. There's actually a recent survey out
of the UK talk to three thousand adults. It was
conducted by a bank called Starling. Apparently at least a
(19:27):
quarter of respondents said that they had already been targeted
by AI voice cloning scams in the past twelve months.
It's very popular in Europe. Now it's coming here. It
is already here, but it's increasing. Half of their respondents
to this particular survey said that they weren't aware that
such scams even existed. The best way to protect yourself
with this one a safe phrase. With the people you love,
(19:47):
your kids, your parents, whomever matters to you. Pick a word,
do not text it to each other, do not email it,
say it together. Have that phrase, know it and use
it as like the safe word. If you find yourself
in a position where you have any inkling of like
is this real? Is this really you? You can have that
word problem solved.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
We've had this conversation back when this show started in November,
that you better have a safe word in general, we
have a very divided country. In fact, probably the most
shocking thing that we did today, the notion that the
soul was dark enough to ask the question is dumbfounding
and silencing, and then we get the answer. So somebody
(20:26):
actually did a survey and asked the question, Hey, it's
always difficult to wish ill on another human being, but
would America be better off if Donald Trump had been assassinated?
Speaker 3 (20:34):
And believe it or not, is dark as it is
to ask that question? Is the answer?
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Twenty eight percent of Democrats said yes, we'd be better
off if he was killed. Twenty five percent said We're
not sure. So vast majority of Democrats say not sure,
or kill him. That's how divided we are. So we've
never been more divided. Things have never been, you know,
more polarizing, intolerant and hateful. And so social media is
(21:00):
driving a lot of this. And by the way, and
now welcome AI, which is everything in the direction going
in the wrong way for us on steroids.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
So now you can add it.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
I listened to a conversation with Barack Obama and Kamala
Harris and it sounded so real that you can't tell.
So add all of that to the confusion. We're gonna
wake up someday and there will be no reality, which
they would love because we don't know what's real and
what isn't real, and therefore nothing's real. Is the end
result of this. I mean, the AI is such a
(21:32):
my point is such a big crisis beyond this, but
the notion that your child's voice could be faked.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Hey, I'm at Belmont.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I need a hundred I need you know, five hundred
dollars in one hour or else, and you don't know
if that's really your daughter or you know, I'm being
held hostage.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
I need a hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
You better have a safe word, and you should have
had it a year ago, but you better have it
before the sun sets today, because this is good. It's
scamming millions, and sooner or later it's gonna try. It's
gonna try to scam just like all the other scams
we've seen, and you're not gonna know.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
It's gonna sound just like your daughter. It's scary exactly.
Speaker 13 (22:06):
And that's why it's like it's not even tricking your brain.
I know that if my kids called and were like mommy, mommy,
in distress. No, I wouldn't have the calm wherewithal to
be like, hey, let me call you right back. No,
I need like the safeboard is an easy one that
you like in that moment of panic. They create urgency
and they create panic and that makes you behave in
ways that you normally wouldn't because you're you're operating from
(22:27):
this fight or flight type place, and the best way
to protect yourself is you know what do they say,
like a good A good defense is a good offense
is strong defense, and that's what you need with the safeboard.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
Well, that's what the eighty five Chicago Bears proved, all right.
So bottom line is and this is the tip of
the iceberg, right can you imagine? I mean, oh, I
can't even begin to have a conversation with you about
all the things that AI presents in terms of scam
that this one will laugh about someday. But they'll just
(22:58):
as soon as we block this one, they'll be on
to the next and the next and the next.
Speaker 13 (23:03):
Oh yeah, this is And listen, I don't think we
should live in fear of the future.
Speaker 10 (23:07):
You know.
Speaker 13 (23:07):
There it could be great, could be great.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I don't know, maybe something wanted.
Speaker 13 (23:12):
Maybe there'll be so much better than the past. I
don't think that we should live like we're going down. Like, yes,
there are things to absolutely be cognizant of and be
vigilant about, but for the most part, if we nip
them in the bud as they're starting and create kind
of like a work around there. There's always been things
before and there will always be things in the future.
But living with our head above the water and seeing
(23:33):
what's ahead of us, and and well, there was.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
There was a time baron where oceans protected you, and
then there were planes, there were intercontinental bastic missiles. There
was a time we had town criers, and there was
a time we had newspapers, and there was a time
radio came on the scene. Then there was a time
TV came on the scene. But nothing really move things
like the advent of the internet and social media, and
(23:56):
now when you add AI to that, it's definitely going
in a past, and it's a path that is I
don't like anybody live in fear.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
There is a God. He is not our feelings, and
he is in control.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
But wow, there's some chaos ahead, that's for sure, starting
with scams like this, So bottom line is you got
to have a safe word with all your kids or
you're not gonna know who you're talking. You might want
to have them with your spouse, you might want to
have a safe word with your parents.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think a safe word paroh. And by the way,
what we remember our passwords and safe words.
Speaker 12 (24:25):
I know.
Speaker 13 (24:27):
What the password was, I know, I know, I know,
I know.
Speaker 11 (24:31):
Just don't make your password.
Speaker 13 (24:32):
Make it's something else, Make it's something like fun give,
make it a joyful but.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Don't make it is this really you? Because that probably
won't work. Great reporting. As always, we'll talk again tomorrow, Aaron.
Speaker 13 (24:42):
Thanks Michael, you got it for the hour you got.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
About to seventeen eighteen.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Minutes to be to work on time, and thanks for
bringing us along for the drive to work if you're
just waking up. The Fed did cut interest rates, and
not by a quarter, by a half, Brian Shook reports.
Speaker 9 (24:59):
University of sen Florida economist Sean Snaith says it's a
little too aggressive for his taste.
Speaker 6 (25:05):
I think a half point is an aggressive start to
this cycle of using monetary policy, especially when we haven't
achieved the inflation target yet.
Speaker 9 (25:16):
Doctor Snaith says the move suggests the Central Bank is
more concerned about a recession than it is inflation taking
off again. It's the first interest rate cut in more
than four years. I'm Brian Shook.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
All right, if you're Donald Trump, Team Trump, you got
to hang on in Arizona, Nevada, you got to hang
on in Georgia and North Carolina, and you got to
take something Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or a district in Nebraska.
So what's Trump doing in New York. He's there because
he thinks he can win. Mark Mayfield has that story.
Speaker 14 (25:50):
Former President Trump says the state of New York will
vote for him in November.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
It hasn't been.
Speaker 10 (25:55):
Done for a long time, but we are going to
win New York.
Speaker 14 (26:04):
Security was very tight at the rally in Uniondale on Wednesday,
the first since an apparent assassination attempted this past weekend
in Florida. New York officials said earlier reports about explosives
being found near the site were false.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
The state's voted.
Speaker 14 (26:16):
Democratic in the last nine elections. Trump also said during
the rally, felt God saved his life so he can
make America great again.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
All right, There was a lot of weaponization of COVID,
and it's led to a lot of mistrust of the
World Health Organization, the CDC.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
And vaccinations in general.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Now the discredited CDC is saying all these people not
getting flu vaccines, they are leading to children dying of
the flu. Covid was real, it was man made. It
was man linked out of a lab, and the very
person you trusted for all of your information had to
(26:57):
deal with the production of it, Anthony fo And all
this trust is leading to less vaccinations. Tammy Trilo has
the report the CDs.
Speaker 11 (27:06):
He said Wednesday that nearly two hundred children died from
influenzer related illnesses during the most recent flu season. That
most of the children who died were eligible for a
vaccine but didn't receive one. It said the death coincide
with overall drops and vaccinations among children. As of May,
the CDC said only fifty three percent of children in
the US were vaccinated for the flu this season. That's
(27:28):
down from the previous year. I'm Tammy trichello.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Well did he's attorney's tried again and failed again at
getting him home.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
He's got a new home jail.
Speaker 12 (27:36):
Christian Marx reports Combs had appealed the first judges ruling
that he'd be detained until he faces trial on sex
trafficking and racketeering charges in federal court in Manhattan Wednesday.
His lawyers highlighted the deplorable conditions at Metropolitan Detention Center
and proposed a fifty million dollar bill package that included
round the clock monitoring and no access to a phone
(27:58):
or internet. However, Judge Robin Tarnowsky agreed with prosecutors that
Combs would threaten and intimidate witnesses in the case. The
fifty four year old is accused of forcing women to
have sex with prostitutes during drug induced so called freak ops.
He faces up to life in prison if convicted on
all charges. Kristen Marks, NBC News Radio, Well.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
This one hurt.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Great songwriter, very talented, great great guy, and he made
a lot of other people really big, big stars with
really really great songs, and he's gone.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
JD. Souther has died. Michael Kastner reports.
Speaker 8 (28:34):
Souther was famous for collaborating with the Eagles, Linda Ronstad,
and other country rock stars of the era. He co
wrote several big hits for the Eagles, including Best of
My Love, New Kid in Town, and Heartache Tonight. He
also had a solo career that included the nineteen seventy
nine top ten hit You're Only Lonely. In twenty thirteen,
(28:55):
souther was inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame. His
representatives say JD. Souther there died peacefully Tuesday at his
home in New Mexico at the age of seventy eight.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
No cause of death was given.
Speaker 8 (29:07):
I'm Michael Cassner and that's your top five stories of
the day.
Speaker 11 (29:12):
Good morning, guys, this is jail pleasant for you Tennessee.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
And my morning show is your morning show with Michael Dale, Johno.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Your morning show, meaning your voice matters much to Arizona.
Speaker 15 (29:24):
We go, Hi, Michael Shannon in surprise Arizona. Man, I'm
so disheartened and I don't know what to believe, Like,
do we believe these polls that are coming out the
show Kamala is winning, and even if Trump does win,
is he going to really be able to take office.
(29:48):
I'm just so stressed and worried about all of this.
Love your show, Thank you for.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
All you do, and I suspect that captures a lot
of people's sentiment right now. First of all, I think
we make the presidency so big, and so you know,
it's one of three branches of government, and quite frankly,
it's not even the most powerful.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
The House of the People is. So sometimes you get
sucked into that.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Sometimes it sucks us out of even God being in control.
And we think everything rests life, as we know at
rests in this presidential race, and that's getting things outside
of its boundaries.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Nobody should be living in fear.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
There are things to be concerned about, that's for sure,
and the security of both candidates is one of those things.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
When I did that poll earlier, wrory have you seen
that poll?
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Somebody actually asked the question, Hey, look, nobody wishes anything
ill on anybody, but what America had been better off
if Donald Trump had been killed last weekend? Oh Jesus yeah,
I mean literally asked the question even worse.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
Here's the answer.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Seven percent of Republicans said, yeah, we'd be better off
if you'd have been killed, twenty eight percent of Democrats.
In fact, twenty five percent of Democrats and I'm not
really sure. Adding about together, the majority of Democrats are
like not sure or yeah, we'd be better off if
he was dead. I mean, this is just getting it's
so dark and so sick, and you know, sure it
reveals a pretty troubling time and it makes you concern
(31:12):
no matter who wins, will there be a peaceful transferl
and power. But you just simply can't live in a
fear and b in this ridiculous distortion of the presidency
that has been created either by the media, by the
campaigns themselves, or social media. It's just gotten completely out
of hand. But you've gone over the latest polling numbers.
(31:33):
These are three big swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Make a long story short. I've done the map a
million ways.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
It comes down to a district in Nebraska or Donald
Trump has to take one of these three, and so
far it looks like Pennsylvania may be the closest one
it Right now, I still think Wisconsin is his best shot.
Speaker 3 (31:48):
But what did you see in the polls? Yeah, well, this.
Speaker 16 (31:51):
Quimbiac poll from yesterday shows that actually Harris is opening
up a lead there, But some competing polls show that
Pennsylvania is a coin toss. So it's interesting to see
that the polls are off about five or six points
from each other, and that obviously could make a big
difference Wisconsin in this Quinnipiac pol though, is also one
of those toss ups forty eight forty seven Harris and Trump.
(32:12):
Harris has that one point age, but it's not much.
And by the way, to the woman who was talking
before about being concerned about whether or not Donald Trump
would be allowed to take office, I and then your
follow up in response, just keep in mind that the
election of your town council, city council mayor will have
a lot more of an impact on your life than yeah, yeah, no,
(32:33):
But I mean most people can't name their state senator,
state representatives, so it really is the local elections have
a whole lot more impact on your day to day life.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
It's something that nobody ever brings up out loud, this
worship of the presidency. And you know, we've talked about
it a great lengthy and David sonati the Advent of
Television and John F. Kennedy and then later perfected by
Ronald Reagan and then Barack Obama and then social media.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Put it on steroids. It's just an over emphasis on
the office of the presidency. And I mean the fact
that anybody is basing their life security on who the
next president is is to suggest there is no God
and he's not in control.
Speaker 1 (33:14):
And I'm I, for one, will say I'm not willing
to go there. I think we'll be fine no matter
who wins. And in fact, if anything, I'm more concerned
with the control of Congress. But I do plan to
vote for Donald Trump, and I will be rooting for him,
all right. So bottom line, these polls showed a toss up.
I have a pretty good scenario of two sixty nine
to sixty nine. Can you imagine this whole thing ends
with it going to Congress to decide. Well, that would
(33:35):
help make the point you were just making of what's
more important.
Speaker 16 (33:39):
Right and look, yeah, yeah, especially on those liveability issues
and the school board and all those and the zoning
Oh my gosh, the zoning board is probably the most
important government body. You don't know anyone who's a member
of it, and they're the ones that decide, if you know,
if that house around the corner is replaced with the
gas station that's open twenty four to seven.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
So I only have thirty I only have thirty seconds,
But I want to jump in with this. We know
that the Kamala has been testing poorly with the working
Class that Teamsters was approofed Trump fifty eight, Harris thirty one.
It was Biden forty four to thirty six. The Gallup
approval ratings Trump's at forty six, She's at forty four,
but among independence Trump leads forty four to thirty five.
We know the black vote is down in polling. We
(34:18):
know that Donald Trump underpolls. So I mean bottom line
is it shows a dead heat.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
We're all in this together. This is your Morning Show
with Michael Ndheld Jouna
Hi, I'm Michael, and your morning show has heard on
great radio stations across the country like one oh five,
nine twelve fifty WHNZ and Tampa, Florida, News Radio five
seventy wkb N and Youngstown, Ohio and News Radio one
thousand KTOK in Oklahoma City. Love to have you listen
to us live in the morning. And of course we're
so grateful you came for the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Enjoy well two three, starting your morning off right, A
new way of talk, a new way of hunter Stead
because we're in the Deid.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
This is your morning show with Michael Bill Chrum.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
The National Teamster's leadership declined to endorse the Canada even
though Trump won the internal poll fifty eight to thirty
one percent. I mean, you think if they're going to
represent their members and their workers, that would lead to
an endorsement too, but can't. But are the Democrats still
the party of the working class? They can't even get
a teamster's endorsement. Former President Trump was in New York
Long Island to be exact, a very large, safe, large
(01:01):
enthusiastic crowd, and the President said he thinks New York's
in play and he can win p Diddy's still behind bars,
no bail being allowed. Tupperware talk about a sign of
the times. Tupperware is filing.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
For bankrupt Oh kidding, We still use Dupperware.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
It comes to my door. But yeah, And the Fed
didn't cut a quarter. They cut a half and indicated
another quarter is coming twice before the end of the year.
After that half, it would seem as though they're focused
more on the troubling jobs reports and perhaps even the
housing crisis, more than the inflation rate.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
But what do we know?
Speaker 1 (01:37):
What does this mean? Why does the FED even exist?
What will these cuts mean dollars and cents to you
and your family? We always turn to our economic and
money whiz David Boonson, who will not be giving us
ambient sound of Central Park today, which I'm very disappointed.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
David.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
What do you make of all this? I mean, we
know what the news makes of it. Most people don't
know what to make of it. I guess it cuts good.
I don't know how or what it's going to translate
to when you see all of this to the mind
of financial and economic expertise, what did yesterday's that point mean?
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Well, it didn't.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
Mean much to me from the vantage point.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Of being an investment manager and financial professional, because everybody
knew it was coming, and whether it had been twenty
five yesterday and fifty next month or vice versa, which
is what it is.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Now going to be, is irrelevant.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
The FED has basically been priced in through the bond market,
real life money, trillions of dollars telling you that we're
going to be down one percent in the FED funds
rate by the end of the year, So the exact
timing and specifics of how we got there were less important.
You know, it's funny when you say, is it I
(02:48):
guess it's a good thing. I think an interesting issue
people are wrestling with about whether or not a rate
cuts a good or bad thing, because I think it
ends up accidentally asking the wrong question, which is not
what did the FED do? But why did it happen?
And not just this rate cut, but any rate cut
throughout history. The reason that a central bank is cutting
(03:13):
rates or raising rates is what's important. There can be
reasons that are good for a rate cut. There could
be reasons that are bad. It could mean, you know,
generally a lot of times you're in a recession when
they're cutting rates. I mean, who you know, they cut
rates to zero percent in two thousand and eight. Did
two and eight feel good to anybody?
Speaker 5 (03:32):
That a good time? You know?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So that this is no two thousand and eight. We're
not in a recession. But in this particular case, it's
the fad thing. They've been very, very tight for a
couple of years, and it's starting to leak into credit
markets and other areas that they're going to do damage,
and so they're trying to get in front of it.
But the jury is still out as to how this
(03:56):
ends up playing out in the months ahead and years ahead.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
All Right, I'd look at this and I say, you know,
as far as getting inflation close to to or around two,
they've been pretty successful. But we do have a housing crisis,
and we do have some troubling jobs reports. This to
me looked like they were obviously more concerned about the
jobs aspect and the housing crisis, and so they thought
the half was necessary.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Am I reading too much into it?
Speaker 5 (04:23):
Well?
Speaker 4 (04:24):
I don't think that that it necessarily speaks to doing
half now versus a quarter or later. I think that
that just has to do with what they thought was
the best signal to market. So there's something that is
called forward guidance that Alan Greenspan made popular, where the
FED use it as a policy tool. In other words,
it's not just simply reporting like journalism. They think it
(04:47):
is efficacious and monetary policy to telegraph to markets what
you are thinking, what you want to be doing, what
people can expect. And so then financial actors, investors, developers, lenders, borrowers,
they act accordingly, and so you actually get some sort
(05:07):
of economic activity out of the guidance the FED gave.
And the FED thought it was stronger guidance to do
half a point versus a quarter point.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
There's a real.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Irony because I think you're right that housing is a
big consideration here, and a year or two ago people would.
Speaker 5 (05:22):
Have said and been right.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
These low rates are creating the affordability crisis, and housing
low cost of borrowing is pushed prices up so much.
Speaker 5 (05:34):
This is a disaster and it isn't.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
It was, and the FED did create that housing price
in place and really helped facilitate it. But I paradoxically
rates now have to go lower to solve the issue
because there are too many sellers that are anchored to
a high price, that are paying a very low mortgage
rate themselves. They don't want to sell their home when
(06:00):
they have a two or three percent mortgage on it
and go borrow for their next house at six or
seven and so now in order to unfreeze the market,
that that actually has to lower rates. Now some will say, well,
this is going to make prices go up again. I
don't happen to agree for the simple reason that I
don't think they can go much high.
Speaker 6 (06:19):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
No, they're just simply already on affordable.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Yeah, but uh, David Bonston's our money guru and economists,
it's also a theologian, and from time to time that
springs out. All right, So what is the magic number
to get things moving? I've always felt like, you know,
if they can get because right now this half brings
it to somewhere around four and three quarters and five,
which means mortgage rates might start getting into the sixes.
(06:45):
But where does it have to get to really address
that and get moving Probably four nine to nine.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
You know, So are we heading in the right direction?
Speaker 1 (06:54):
And for somebody listening, when can we expect this to
start getting homes on the market and getting them selling
and moving again? Probably somewhere around there, so probably somewhere
around next spring, right.
Speaker 4 (07:06):
I think that's probably about right. I wouldn't call it
a magic number because I don't think it is one.
I know you mean it as a bigger speech, but
you know this is something that is not totally scientific.
I think you're right though, that where the borrowing costs
consideration helps unfreeze the market is probably something with a foe.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
In front of it.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
The bigger issue, though, even than that, ultimately is getting
more supply built. And that's something I talked to you
about on the show several times. That, of course, is
not a federal reserve issue, that's not an interest rate issue.
We have got to get more houses built. Kamala Harris
think she wants to give borrowers and buyers twenty five
(07:48):
thousand dollars subsidy doesn't get houses built. You know, President
Trump said he's going to solve housing. He said he's
going to solve it. It's going to be better it's
ever been. He's going to fix it.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
It's going to be amazing.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
But nothing specific.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
Yeah, well, unless you call that specific amazing, the best
that's ever been, that sounds pretty good.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
I guess as far as the average person. I mean,
what America is really struggling was is they've been paying
for inflation with debt and credit. Half a point is
going to make a big difference on a credit card
that's already twenty eight percent. How much of this has
much ado about nothing and far more about the future,
at least the near future in the next six months
(08:27):
before you really can start seeing like how much of
this is really real for somebody listening.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
Where things are about to get better?
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Because as long as you're spending, as long as you're
dumping trillions into the or billions for sure into a
market unearned, that's inflation area. As long as you don't
address a debt, I mean, a lot of this isn't
going to go away. So how do we avoid this
as much to do about nothing?
Speaker 4 (08:49):
Well, first of all, as I've talked to you about
a lot, I don't agree that the debt is inflationary.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Unfortunately, think it's worse than that.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Inflation is when there's too much money chasing too few goods.
And I think that what happens is you get too
few goods and you need more goods, and so where
in theory people aren't going to see it a regular
middle class family looking at their credit card statement, looking
at their mortgage statement doesn't get data points telling them
how many goods and services are being created.
Speaker 5 (09:18):
In the economy.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
But where lower rates theoretically help is if there is
a supply side benefit that helps promote more production. And
I think that the excessive government debt is just simply
not related to the FED.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
It's related to.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
The Congress spending money that's crazy, the President's signing and
spending in the law, the people demanding it, and those things,
over time do create deflationary.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Pressures that are awful, just simply awful subpart economic growth.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
That's what they're threading a government shut down right now.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
And you know as well as I do, if it
takes them a week or a week and a half,
they're going to solve it.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
And guess what we're all going to lose, be a
little bit more in debt.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Final thirty seconds, I wanted to ask it to you
this way, when you're watching television or you're listening to
the radio, what makes you want to scream at the
TV or the radio? What people aren't getting about all
of this just curious?
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Well, Michael, you mentioned a theological interest of mine. There's
a doctrine called sanctification, where we grow in our faith
over time. And I've been sanctified enough.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
I no longer yell at the TV or radio at all.
But what used to make me want to yell at
the TV and radio.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Was outlandish, unapologetic media bias. I am now numbed to it,
and therefore no longer yell about it.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
David Bonson from the Bonson Financial Group, our economist and
MONEYZ thank you so much for joining.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
We'll talk next week.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
I was a pleasure.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
You got it sixteen minutes after the hour.
Speaker 8 (10:47):
Your conjectuating pretty much on five stories of the day.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
So we all look at.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
The electoral college map and one of the big stories
you're going to hear this is kind of your look
for for the day.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Everybody's going to be playing them.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
Hey, Pennsylvania is a dead heat, Kamala is leading slightly
in Wisconsin and Michigan. And that's the way the race goes.
Is if Georgia and North Carolina aren't key, is if
Arizona and Nevada aren't key. But we went through the
electoral college map with David Zanati. We have it two
sixty nine to two sixty nine, looking at a district
in Nebraska or something shakes, meaning all Donald Trump needs
(11:25):
to do is win one of them Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
Now I don't know how much faith you put in polls,
but that would suggest, you know, hey, use RFK Junior,
use Telsey Gabbard, use jd Vance. Have them living in Michigan,
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Have the President going back and forth
to sure things up in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia in
(11:49):
North Carolina. And yet where was the president in New York?
Why he thinks he can win there? Brian Shook as
our Road to the White.
Speaker 9 (11:58):
House, Road to the White House twenty twenty four. Former
President Trump says the state of New York will vote
with him in November.
Speaker 10 (12:07):
It hasn't been done for a long time, but we
are going to win New York.
Speaker 9 (12:16):
Security was very tight at the rally in Uniondale Wednesday,
the first since an apparent assassination attempt this past weekend
in Florida. New York officials said earlier reports about explosives
being found near the site were false. The state has
voted Democratic in the last nine elections. Trump also said
(12:36):
during the rally he felt God saved his life so
he can make America great again. In Washington, I'm Brian Shook.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So you got employees working from home, and you assume
they're working, and they are, but not necessarily on work.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Tammy Trijuilo has more.
Speaker 11 (12:54):
Survey monkey poled over three thousand full time workers in
the US last month and found that nearly half of
those who work from home are doing laundry and other
items on their to do lists. About one third said
they run errands while remote working, while others like to
take a nap. About seventeen percent said they watched TV
or play video games. A survey also showed a lot
of multitasking during zoom calls, with nearly a third admitting
(13:17):
they have used the bathroom during a zoom call. I'm
Tammy trhiel.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
Well, didy and going home.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
In fact, he's got a new home and all attempts
to try to get him bail didn't work again.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Kristen Marks reports.
Speaker 12 (13:28):
Combs had appealed the first judges ruling that he'd be
detained until he faces trial on sex trafficking and racketeering
charges in federal court in Manhattan Wednesday, his lawyers highlighted
the deplorable conditions at Metropolitan Detention Center and proposed a
fifty million dollar bill package that included round the clock
monitoring and no access to a phone or internet. However,
(13:49):
Judge Robin Tarnowski agreed with prosecutors that Combs would threaten
and intimidate witnesses in the case. The fifty four year
old is accused of forcing women to have sex with
prostitutes during drug and induced so called freak ops. He
faces up to life in prison if convicted on all charges.
Kristen Mark's NBC News Radio all.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
Right, Starbucks bed and Jerry's I cant think a lot
of people, dicks sporting goods have done a lot of
things to offend me, my values, my beliefs, and I
boycott Target. Should but there's just something so darn relaxing
about going to Target.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I don't know why. I just love Target.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So did an eight year old little girl who wanted
to go so bad she took it upon herself to
drive there.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Michael Kastner has this amazing story.
Speaker 8 (14:35):
Police in Bedford, Ohio, released dashcam video Tuesday of a
vehicle that was, in their words, swerving everywhere in the
Cleveland suburb. On Sunday, police caught up with a vehicle
in the parking lot of a target and found the
driver was an eight year old girl who had been
reported missing earlier that morning. Authority say the girl is
too young to be charged criminally, and they are grateful
(14:57):
no one was injured. I'm Michael, you can laugh about.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
That because of that, it's obviously very dangerous for an
eight year old to try to this.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I remember my brother and I have to remember what
Vic would have been then. I think thirteen, and my
brother Bobby would have been eleven, which would have made
me nine, which would have made me fourth grade, which
would have been about right for where we were living
in Arlington Heights. And I'll never forget. My parents were
gone and my brother Vick said, my dad had a
brand new oh what was it, the Ford, not LTD?
(15:28):
It was another one I can't remember, mid seventies Sedan anyway,
So he had this brand new car.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Yeah. My brother goes, come on, let's take it for
a ride.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
And you know, I was always the logical one that
was like, hey, this isn't a good idea, right, Well,
Vic on the driver's seat.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
He backed out.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
You know, I thought, oh no, this could be fun,
because remember, you forget the mindset of a kid. You're
limited by where your feet can take you. Or maybe
later when you get a bike, but that's basically getting
you around the neighborhood.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
You can't really go to cross town or to other towns.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
So Vic pulls out of the neighborhood in this car
is driving so smooth, and Vick's doing remarkably well. We
passed mister Zeno and Wade. He kind of waved, thinking
it was my dad, but then he kind of gave
it a double take. We're all over town all day
long driving this car, and I'm like proud of my
brother thirteen years old. Man, he's driving like a king,
doing well, and I'm thinking to myself, you know, we
(16:18):
could we could.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Get a hot dog downtown arring to nights if we
want to. Anyway, So we drive around for about two hours.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I get back to the house and he's pulling it
into the garage and misses, oh no, and takes out
not the garage door because it was up, takes out
half of the wall.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Oh my goodness, in the garage.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
And then we're all standing there like well, this isn't repairable.
What are we gonna do? Yeah, and you know my
parents would always throw around, You're gonna get the beating
of your life. Oh yeah, Vic got the beating of
his life.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
This is your Morning Show with Michael Deltrona.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
You could say that this race is boiling down to
inside or outsider again, and this Harris perceived as an
insider abortion versus the economy or the border crisis. In
all the Democrats seemingly have a map that's deadlocked, but
a candidate who's not nearly beyond the hype, sugar highs
(17:16):
and theatrics what Joe Biden was. In fact, they find
themselves with a worse black vote problem, a worse youth
vote problem, a worse working class vote problem. And it's real.
And yesterday was a great example. I'll give you case
in point. The Teamsters voted earlier, Joe Biden led forty
(17:38):
four to thirty six percent over Donald Trump. Yesterday, their
internal polling revealed fifty eight percent support Trump, thirty one
percent support Harris. They went from being up Biden eight
to down twenty seven. That's a thirty four point swing
(17:59):
from Biden to Harris. And now in essence, you have
fifty eight percent supporting Trump, and yet the Union itself
won't endorse Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
That Scott you asking does the union.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Really represent its workers because they don't with this, And
do the Democrats really represent the working class American?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
This would suggest they don't.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
By the way, other troubling polls Gallop showing Trump leading
forty six to forty four percent with approval rating two percent,
but among independents forty four to thirty five percent. So
we've got a deadlocked map. But we got a working
class problem for the Democrats, we got an independent voting
problem for the Democrats, and we got a black and youth.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
Vote problem for the Democrats. Abortions got to erase a
lot of that for them to get a win.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
And the Fed cut the rate by not a quarter
but a half. And where was Donald Trump in New York?
And what was he saying? I think I can win
in New York. And there's a new scam out there
could affect millions. Want to make sure it doesn't affect you.
And yes, it involves artificial intelligence. Sarah Rayales here with
that story.
Speaker 13 (19:05):
Good morning Erin, Good morning Michael. Yes, this is a
big one. And knowledge is power, which is why I
like talking it, talking about it on the powerful airwaves
of our heart. And what we know is that artificial
intelligence is cloning voices. There's actually a recent survey out
of the UK talk to three thousand adults. It was
conducted by a bank called Starling. Apparently at least a
(19:27):
quarter of respondents said that they had already been targeted
by AI voice cloning scams in the past twelve months.
It's very popular in Europe. Now it's coming here. It
is already here, but it's increasing. Half of their respondents
to this particular survey said that they weren't aware that
such scams even existed. The best way to protect yourself
with this one a safe phrase. With the people you love,
(19:47):
your kids, your parents, whomever matters to you. Pick a word,
do not text it to each other, do not email it,
say it together. Have that phrase, know it and use
it as like the safe word. If you find yourself
in a position where you have any inkling of like
is this real? Is this really you? You can have that
word problem solved.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
We've had this conversation back when this show started in November,
that you better have a safe word in general, we
have a very divided country. In fact, probably the most
shocking thing that we did today, the notion that the
soul was dark enough to ask the question is dumbfounding
and silencing, and then we get the answer. So somebody
(20:26):
actually did a survey and asked the question, Hey, it's
always difficult to wish ill on another human being, but
would America be better off if Donald Trump had been assassinated?
Speaker 3 (20:34):
And believe it or not, is dark as it is
to ask that question? Is the answer?
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Twenty eight percent of Democrats said yes, we'd be better
off if he was killed. Twenty five percent said We're
not sure. So vast majority of Democrats say not sure,
or kill him. That's how divided we are. So we've
never been more divided. Things have never been, you know,
more polarizing, intolerant and hateful. And so social media is
(21:00):
driving a lot of this. And by the way, and
now welcome AI, which is everything in the direction going
in the wrong way for us on steroids.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
So now you can add it.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
I listened to a conversation with Barack Obama and Kamala
Harris and it sounded so real that you can't tell.
So add all of that to the confusion. We're gonna
wake up someday and there will be no reality, which
they would love because we don't know what's real and
what isn't real, and therefore nothing's real. Is the end
result of this. I mean, the AI is such a
(21:32):
my point is such a big crisis beyond this, but
the notion that your child's voice could be faked.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Hey, I'm at Belmont.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I need a hundred I need you know, five hundred
dollars in one hour or else, and you don't know
if that's really your daughter or you know, I'm being
held hostage.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
I need a hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
You better have a safe word, and you should have
had it a year ago, but you better have it
before the sun sets today, because this is good. It's
scamming millions, and sooner or later it's gonna try. It's
gonna try to scam just like all the other scams
we've seen, and you're not gonna know.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
It's gonna sound just like your daughter. It's scary exactly.
Speaker 13 (22:06):
And that's why it's like it's not even tricking your brain.
I know that if my kids called and were like mommy, mommy,
in distress. No, I wouldn't have the calm wherewithal to
be like, hey, let me call you right back. No,
I need like the safeboard is an easy one that
you like in that moment of panic. They create urgency
and they create panic and that makes you behave in
ways that you normally wouldn't because you're you're operating from
(22:27):
this fight or flight type place, and the best way
to protect yourself is you know what do they say,
like a good A good defense is a good offense
is strong defense, and that's what you need with the safeboard.
Speaker 1 (22:38):
Well, that's what the eighty five Chicago Bears proved, all right.
So bottom line is and this is the tip of
the iceberg, right can you imagine? I mean, oh, I
can't even begin to have a conversation with you about
all the things that AI presents in terms of scam
that this one will laugh about someday. But they'll just
(22:58):
as soon as we block this one, they'll be on
to the next and the next and the next.
Speaker 13 (23:03):
Oh yeah, this is And listen, I don't think we
should live in fear of the future.
Speaker 10 (23:07):
You know.
Speaker 13 (23:07):
There it could be great, could be great.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I don't know, maybe something wanted.
Speaker 13 (23:12):
Maybe there'll be so much better than the past. I
don't think that we should live like we're going down. Like, yes,
there are things to absolutely be cognizant of and be
vigilant about, but for the most part, if we nip
them in the bud as they're starting and create kind
of like a work around there. There's always been things
before and there will always be things in the future.
But living with our head above the water and seeing
(23:33):
what's ahead of us, and and well, there was.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
There was a time baron where oceans protected you, and
then there were planes, there were intercontinental bastic missiles. There
was a time we had town criers, and there was
a time we had newspapers, and there was a time
radio came on the scene. Then there was a time
TV came on the scene. But nothing really move things
like the advent of the internet and social media, and
(23:56):
now when you add AI to that, it's definitely going
in a past, and it's a path that is I
don't like anybody live in fear.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
There is a God. He is not our feelings, and
he is in control.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
But wow, there's some chaos ahead, that's for sure, starting
with scams like this, So bottom line is you got
to have a safe word with all your kids or
you're not gonna know who you're talking. You might want
to have them with your spouse, you might want to
have a safe word with your parents.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think a safe word paroh. And by the way,
what we remember our passwords and safe words.
Speaker 12 (24:25):
I know.
Speaker 13 (24:27):
What the password was, I know, I know, I know,
I know.
Speaker 11 (24:31):
Just don't make your password.
Speaker 13 (24:32):
Make it's something else, Make it's something like fun give,
make it a joyful but.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Don't make it is this really you? Because that probably
won't work. Great reporting. As always, we'll talk again tomorrow, Aaron.
Speaker 13 (24:42):
Thanks Michael, you got it for the hour you got.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
About to seventeen eighteen.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Minutes to be to work on time, and thanks for
bringing us along for the drive to work if you're
just waking up. The Fed did cut interest rates, and
not by a quarter, by a half, Brian Shook reports.
Speaker 9 (24:59):
University of sen Florida economist Sean Snaith says it's a
little too aggressive for his taste.
Speaker 6 (25:05):
I think a half point is an aggressive start to
this cycle of using monetary policy, especially when we haven't
achieved the inflation target yet.
Speaker 9 (25:16):
Doctor Snaith says the move suggests the Central Bank is
more concerned about a recession than it is inflation taking
off again. It's the first interest rate cut in more
than four years. I'm Brian Shook.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
All right, if you're Donald Trump, Team Trump, you got
to hang on in Arizona, Nevada, you got to hang
on in Georgia and North Carolina, and you got to
take something Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or a district in Nebraska.
So what's Trump doing in New York. He's there because
he thinks he can win. Mark Mayfield has that story.
Speaker 14 (25:50):
Former President Trump says the state of New York will
vote for him in November.
Speaker 5 (25:54):
It hasn't been.
Speaker 10 (25:55):
Done for a long time, but we are going to
win New York.
Speaker 14 (26:04):
Security was very tight at the rally in Uniondale on Wednesday,
the first since an apparent assassination attempted this past weekend
in Florida. New York officials said earlier reports about explosives
being found near the site were false.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
The state's voted.
Speaker 14 (26:16):
Democratic in the last nine elections. Trump also said during
the rally, felt God saved his life so he can
make America great again.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
All right, There was a lot of weaponization of COVID,
and it's led to a lot of mistrust of the
World Health Organization, the CDC.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
And vaccinations in general.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Now the discredited CDC is saying all these people not
getting flu vaccines, they are leading to children dying of
the flu. Covid was real, it was man made. It
was man linked out of a lab, and the very
person you trusted for all of your information had to
(26:57):
deal with the production of it, Anthony fo And all
this trust is leading to less vaccinations. Tammy Trilo has
the report the CDs.
Speaker 11 (27:06):
He said Wednesday that nearly two hundred children died from
influenzer related illnesses during the most recent flu season. That
most of the children who died were eligible for a
vaccine but didn't receive one. It said the death coincide
with overall drops and vaccinations among children. As of May,
the CDC said only fifty three percent of children in
the US were vaccinated for the flu this season. That's
(27:28):
down from the previous year. I'm Tammy trichello.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Well did he's attorney's tried again and failed again at
getting him home.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
He's got a new home jail.
Speaker 12 (27:36):
Christian Marx reports Combs had appealed the first judges ruling
that he'd be detained until he faces trial on sex
trafficking and racketeering charges in federal court in Manhattan Wednesday.
His lawyers highlighted the deplorable conditions at Metropolitan Detention Center
and proposed a fifty million dollar bill package that included
round the clock monitoring and no access to a phone
(27:58):
or internet. However, Judge Robin Tarnowsky agreed with prosecutors that
Combs would threaten and intimidate witnesses in the case. The
fifty four year old is accused of forcing women to
have sex with prostitutes during drug induced so called freak ops.
He faces up to life in prison if convicted on
all charges. Kristen Marks, NBC News Radio, Well.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
This one hurt.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Great songwriter, very talented, great great guy, and he made
a lot of other people really big, big stars with
really really great songs, and he's gone.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
JD. Souther has died. Michael Kastner reports.
Speaker 8 (28:34):
Souther was famous for collaborating with the Eagles, Linda Ronstad,
and other country rock stars of the era. He co
wrote several big hits for the Eagles, including Best of
My Love, New Kid in Town, and Heartache Tonight. He
also had a solo career that included the nineteen seventy
nine top ten hit You're Only Lonely. In twenty thirteen,
(28:55):
souther was inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame. His
representatives say JD. Souther there died peacefully Tuesday at his
home in New Mexico at the age of seventy eight.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
No cause of death was given.
Speaker 8 (29:07):
I'm Michael Cassner and that's your top five stories of
the day.
Speaker 11 (29:12):
Good morning, guys, this is jail pleasant for you Tennessee.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
And my morning show is your morning show with Michael Dale, Johno.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Your morning show, meaning your voice matters much to Arizona.
Speaker 15 (29:24):
We go, Hi, Michael Shannon in surprise Arizona. Man, I'm
so disheartened and I don't know what to believe, Like,
do we believe these polls that are coming out the
show Kamala is winning, and even if Trump does win,
is he going to really be able to take office.
(29:48):
I'm just so stressed and worried about all of this.
Love your show, Thank you for.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
All you do, and I suspect that captures a lot
of people's sentiment right now. First of all, I think
we make the presidency so big, and so you know,
it's one of three branches of government, and quite frankly,
it's not even the most powerful.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
The House of the People is. So sometimes you get
sucked into that.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Sometimes it sucks us out of even God being in control.
And we think everything rests life, as we know at
rests in this presidential race, and that's getting things outside
of its boundaries.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Nobody should be living in fear.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
There are things to be concerned about, that's for sure,
and the security of both candidates is one of those things.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
When I did that poll earlier, wrory have you seen
that poll?
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Somebody actually asked the question, Hey, look, nobody wishes anything
ill on anybody, but what America had been better off
if Donald Trump had been killed last weekend? Oh Jesus yeah,
I mean literally asked the question even worse.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
Here's the answer.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Seven percent of Republicans said, yeah, we'd be better off
if you'd have been killed, twenty eight percent of Democrats.
In fact, twenty five percent of Democrats and I'm not
really sure. Adding about together, the majority of Democrats are
like not sure or yeah, we'd be better off if
he was dead. I mean, this is just getting it's
so dark and so sick, and you know, sure it
reveals a pretty troubling time and it makes you concern
(31:12):
no matter who wins, will there be a peaceful transferl
and power. But you just simply can't live in a
fear and b in this ridiculous distortion of the presidency
that has been created either by the media, by the
campaigns themselves, or social media. It's just gotten completely out
of hand. But you've gone over the latest polling numbers.
(31:33):
These are three big swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Make a long story short. I've done the map a
million ways.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
It comes down to a district in Nebraska or Donald
Trump has to take one of these three, and so
far it looks like Pennsylvania may be the closest one
it Right now, I still think Wisconsin is his best shot.
Speaker 3 (31:48):
But what did you see in the polls? Yeah, well, this.
Speaker 16 (31:51):
Quimbiac poll from yesterday shows that actually Harris is opening
up a lead there, But some competing polls show that
Pennsylvania is a coin toss. So it's interesting to see
that the polls are off about five or six points
from each other, and that obviously could make a big
difference Wisconsin in this Quinnipiac pol though, is also one
of those toss ups forty eight forty seven Harris and Trump.
(32:12):
Harris has that one point age, but it's not much.
And by the way, to the woman who was talking
before about being concerned about whether or not Donald Trump
would be allowed to take office, I and then your
follow up in response, just keep in mind that the
election of your town council, city council mayor will have
a lot more of an impact on your life than yeah, yeah, no,
(32:33):
But I mean most people can't name their state senator,
state representatives, so it really is the local elections have
a whole lot more impact on your day to day life.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
It's something that nobody ever brings up out loud, this
worship of the presidency. And you know, we've talked about
it a great lengthy and David sonati the Advent of
Television and John F. Kennedy and then later perfected by
Ronald Reagan and then Barack Obama and then social media.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Put it on steroids. It's just an over emphasis on
the office of the presidency. And I mean the fact
that anybody is basing their life security on who the
next president is is to suggest there is no God
and he's not in control.
Speaker 1 (33:14):
And I'm I, for one, will say I'm not willing
to go there. I think we'll be fine no matter
who wins. And in fact, if anything, I'm more concerned
with the control of Congress. But I do plan to
vote for Donald Trump, and I will be rooting for him,
all right. So bottom line, these polls showed a toss up.
I have a pretty good scenario of two sixty nine
to sixty nine. Can you imagine this whole thing ends
with it going to Congress to decide. Well, that would
(33:35):
help make the point you were just making of what's
more important.
Speaker 16 (33:39):
Right and look, yeah, yeah, especially on those liveability issues
and the school board and all those and the zoning
Oh my gosh, the zoning board is probably the most
important government body. You don't know anyone who's a member
of it, and they're the ones that decide, if you know,
if that house around the corner is replaced with the
gas station that's open twenty four to seven.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
So I only have thirty I only have thirty seconds,
But I want to jump in with this. We know
that the Kamala has been testing poorly with the working
Class that Teamsters was approofed Trump fifty eight, Harris thirty one.
It was Biden forty four to thirty six. The Gallup
approval ratings Trump's at forty six, She's at forty four,
but among independence Trump leads forty four to thirty five.
We know the black vote is down in polling. We
(34:18):
know that Donald Trump underpolls. So I mean bottom line
is it shows a dead heat.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
We're all in this together. This is your Morning Show
with Michael Ndheld Jouna
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