October 10, 2024 • 34 mins
Do elections really have an impact on the market and economy??
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, I'm Michael. I'd love to have you listen to
your morning show live. Every day We're heard on great
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listen live. But in the meantime, enjoy the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Well two three, starting your morning off right. A new
way of talk, a new way of understanding. Because we're
in the stage. This is your morning show with Michael Odell.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Join the six minutes after the hour. Welcome to Thursday,
the tenth of October.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
You're of our Lord.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Twenty twenty four, the morning after Hurricane Milton made landfall
in Florida. One of my friends, Vincent, who lives along
the East coast, said it was just crazy. They had
four tornadoes within thirty minutes. It really was a tornadic
event as much as a hurricane event. My friend show
(00:58):
Joe has his priorities. At least I got to see
the Yankees and the Mets both win before the power
went out. God took care of me. Feeling very blessed
this morning. Last night was one for the ages. Yeah,
if you've never ridden out a Category three or higher hurricane,
it'll get your attention. Officials in Saint Lucy County, Florida
reporting multiple fatalities related to Milton, most of them associated
(01:21):
with tornado damage from the outer bands of Milton. He's
been downgraded since to a Category one, pounding Daytona area
and now heading into the Atlantic where he'll dissolve. A
flash flood emergency continues some portions of western central Florida.
Nearly three million homes and businesses three point two to
be exact, according to Rory, are without power waking up
(01:41):
this morning. Now, in non related hurricane news, there's politics.
One of the things that I got to earlier was
this analogy from a weatherman we used to have in
Tulsa who was on the air with me, and I said, well, Gary,
what are you expecting? And he said anywhere from a
dusting to two feet of snow. And I said, well,
you're bound to be right. And that's how these polls
look in these swing states. It could be anywhere from uh,
(02:05):
too close to call to a landslide. All right, So
you have no swing state led by more than two
points and most of them less than one point. So
the margin of era alone is going to make that
a crazy ride between now an election day, let alone turnout,
let alone underpolling. Let me give you an example of
the underpolling. I wanted to get to this. In October
(02:28):
of twenty twenty, Biden was leading Wisconsin by five. He
went on to win by zero point six. That was
almost off five percentage points. And Harrison only leads by
point five right now. So you know, like we always say,
and people think I'm just trying to blow smoke up
(02:49):
your skirt.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Well, if Trump is.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Down by a half, that means he's leading by three,
so you know that, and it goes down that way
for all the different swing states. So again, heading four
weeks out, we don't know what the certain future is now.
That brings up this question due elections. I mean, a
hurricane was making landfall yesterday and the dows up two hundred.
(03:14):
The election in future of the country is uncertain. So
I thought, wouldn't it be interesting to talk to our money?
Was an economist, David Bonds? And do elections really impact
the market, and if so, for how long and how
much does the winner actually impact the economy ultimately. I
know it's that age old question, David, but it needs
to be asked for people to worry all the time,
a lot less than they think, I bet is your.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
Answer, Well, that is true, and it's something I've written
about a great deal at Dividendcafe dot com, where I
do my weekly investment writing. I did a whole special
issue in the election where I make the point that
presidents matter in the sense that sometimes big legislation gets done,
(03:55):
and presidents can have the ability to drive legislation. But
presidents can do that by themselves. The Congress can create
legislation whether a president likes it or not, and the
Congress can block legislation. As we saw it, and the
Biden administration build Back Better never happened. And by the way,
(04:15):
that wasn't even a Republican Senate that blocked it. That
was too moderate Democrats that blocked it. I did my
own study. I took one hundred different things that political
candidates had talked about, promised, threatened, whatever you want to
say in campaigns in my adult lifetime, and ninety four
out of one hundred of them never happened. We're just
(04:38):
simply dealing with the difference between what people say on
a campaign trail and what they themselves are serious about doing.
I think half of the stuff both of these candidates
are saying right now they're not even serious about. But
then far more important than that is what can be done.
Politics is the art of the possible. And you are
not going to get a tax on unrealized capital games
(05:01):
passed in Congress. It's never going to happen.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
So the market knows what market knows how to see
through the narratives that the people can sometimes be fooled about,
especially living in a media matrix and a social media matrix.
David Bonnson's Our Money was an economist, all right. So
one of the things that impresses me and I can't remember.
I think we met through your publicist, who I happened
to know in Nashville when your book came out Full Time,
which was brilliant. He knew I was a Christian and
(05:24):
I would love it. I have since come to love
everything about you and what I want to stress everybody
when we go on the air. David has no idea
what I'm going to ask him, So rewind and listen
to that last three minute answer because he didn't know
the question until he heard it live. So I think
I can do this with you, and you're one of
the few people I could. Let's say Kamala Harris wins
(05:45):
the election, but the Republicans have control of the Senate
in the House, well, and.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
I would point out by the way, she doesn't need
death control. The Republicans don't need that control the Senate
and the House is one or the other.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Yeah, but it looks like they're going to have both.
At least.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
This thing is going to end with Kamala Harris president
and Republicans controlling the Senate in the House, or it's
going to end with Donald Trump president and the Republicans
controlling the House and the Senate, which is the second
question I was going to ask you the first thing first,
the check and balances. Republicans get Congress, Democrats get the
White House.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
What does that do to a market?
Speaker 4 (06:21):
It doesn't move the market one way or the other.
Other things would end up moving the market at that point. Now,
all things being equal, the market would prefer the latter
outcome you described President Trump with a Republican House and Senate.
But the reasons for that are still push and pull.
The markets would not like tariffs or the volatility of
(06:43):
the threat of tariffs, but they would write deregulation and
most importantly, where I think Trump was strongest in his
first term, they would like energy independence, right, and so
those It isn't why President Trump is again going to
come in and move the corporate income rate from thirty
five percent to twenty one percent. He already did that,
(07:04):
and so the sentiment matters, The bully pulpit matters, small
business optimism matters. Those are things that marginally move the needle.
But really, if we're gonna have a recession with the
Republican president and a Republican Congress, then the market's going
to go down anyways. That's why I always say these
(07:25):
macroeconomic didn'ts. We talk like the president is a king
and they're not. And so I think monetary policy and
macroeconomic policy matter a lot more than just who is
sitting in the White House.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
And why do they think they're kings because we treat
them like kings and act like they're kings and they're not.
Here's the last one I want to give you, and
that is like when Donald Trump won in twenty sixteen,
I mean you had to notice the market went through
the roof the day after the election.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
I mean through the roof.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
We didn't see it really go down and crash when
Biden won in twenty twenty, do you think there'll be
some movement? I mean the market is already so hi,
I mean what, because uncertainty is what markets don't like.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
But there's a lot of built in.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Certainty that yeah. No, you make a great point uncertainty. Generally.
This has changed a little bit in some years, but
generally the market's really stalled out or peter out. That
was the case in twenty sixteen, that markets were just
kind of flatlining for a while going in the election,
and just simply having an outcome allowed things to kind
(08:27):
of breathe a bit. But it would be hard to think, like, Okay,
let's say President Trump wins on election night, is the
market going to jump up thousands of points when it's
already trading at twenty two times next year's earnings.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
No, because it's built in. See, and you're the expert.
That's why I'm it sounds like I'm making a statement.
I'm really kind of asking for affirmation. I think eight
years of Barack Obama was uncertainty the damaging things he
was doing, but all the damaging things he was trying
to do.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
That he didn't get done.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And then Donald Trump won and it looked like the
Republicans were going to easily have control of the Senate
as well. That created a boom. We don't have that now.
The market's already high, we're already in debt, and we're
going to get more in debt with either of them.
I just don't see it having more than ever. I
would say, I don't see it relevantly having much movement,
not on the presidency. Maybe control, if you get the
(09:21):
presidency and the House and Senate, then maybe a little bit.
But I don't think we're going to see any big movement.
I actually find this very irrelevant for the market well.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
And even worse, Michael, you could see the market rally
from traders just sort of thinking it's supposed to and
then selling off.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
Right.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
You may very well get some suckers that come in
and try to play that the same way, thinking it
is twenty sixteen. Again, keep in mind, Obama's never had
one single down year in the market when he was president,
and so while we can say that Obama represented a
lot of big government and a lot of bad policy,
and a lot of things that were down for markets.
(10:00):
All of that's true. Yet the fact of the matter
is it didn't matter to investors because it was coming
out of the Great Recession and earnings had gotten down
to fifty dollars a share in the S and P.
And by the time he left office they were back
to one hundred and fifty. Because you know, the free
market works, the economy recovers, and its timing is a
(10:21):
big part of this. The person who wins in November
is not necessarily coming in at the best timing. They're
coming in with two different factors that matter for markets. One,
markets are already high. It's always best to come in
when markets are low. And b coming in with questionable economy.
It's always best to come in when you're about to
(10:42):
see a big surge higher.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
And the c would be and both planned to add
five trillion dollars.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
To the debt.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
Well, and that's right. But see, the markets wouldn't mind
adding to the debt if it was being added productively.
Nobody in the right mind believes that any to the
debt right now is productive. It's all counter productive. Anything
we're doing with the debt is taking away from economic growth.
This is the opposite of what they call teens and multiplier.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I want to conclude with this. David Bonnson is our
money with from Bonson Financial Group. He's also author of
the book Full Time.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
John F.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Kennedy explained it so well in nineteen sixty two. Now
you know, he was saying, you know, people are thinking, well,
we're in a recession. We've got to raise taxes in
order to fund government. No, just the opposite. Now's the
time to cut taxes. Allowing the American people to have
more of their money is first a moral issue. They
earned it. It's theirs, not the government's. First, and tell
them how much they can keep, how much we have
(11:39):
changed over sixty years. Then he said, it's also the
smart thing to do people. You've got to trust what
people will do with their money. They'll pay down their debt.
They'll spend it as they spend it. Business grow, as
business grow, they hire more. As they hire more. We
have more tax payers burdened less, not more people entitled
wanting more. More burdened less, and you actually fund government better,
(12:03):
which we proved with all the tax cuts, first with
Kennedy but he didn't live long enough to really see it,
then with Reagan, and then with Bush, although Bush kind
of outspent it, and then again with Trump. This whole
mentality has been lost. It's just pure partisan pandering for
votes and unproductive spending, and now we're headed towards forty
trillion in debt.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Pretty bad.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
You could even add a little bit with Bill Clinton
on the tax cut because on capital gain cuts he
was pretty good, and that led to a lot more
capital formation, and you could see what the impact there
was with Silicon Valley and real estate and other things.
This is just sort of a class warfare issue. At
the end of the day. There's very little debate among
serious economists that cutting when you tax something, you get
(12:51):
less of it. When you cut taxes, you get more
of it. And so if we want more productivity and
more income and more capital formation and more investment and
more risk stake and all the things that give us
a higher standard of living in a higher quality of life,
than you want to tax less of it. And Kennedy
Reagan are the two great examples in the last seventy
five years that empirically proved the point. The Trump tax
(13:14):
cups did the same. And here's the deal. Corporate tax
rates went down, wages for low earners went up net
of inflation. The highest income growth for African Americans is
a percentage in history. I believe companies with their tax
burden did pay people like me dividends, they did buy backstock,
(13:34):
they did give increases in an executive comp but they
also they also raised wages and hired more people at
the lower end of the income spectrum. More So, you
have to phosophically what you want. Do you want poor
people getting poorer just as long as rich people don't
get richer? Or do you want rich and poor to
(13:57):
get richer? That's the question.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
And then you know the government is already you do
you Never you wake up one morning and the government
is the largest, most secure employer, You're in trouble.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
I will say this too, that.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
It is also worthy of note that you when when
they boy, I just want blank, What was I going
to say?
Speaker 3 (14:15):
I never had my mind do that before.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
Well, but the reason why isn't the case that the
government being the largest employer is a bad thing? Is
it just simply because we have a moral view or
a theological view or an anti governmental view. I mean,
maybe those things are true, but I would just add
the economic view. Michael, why do you not want government
being a larger portion of the economy. The government has
to do some things with their government needs to have
some employees. The reason why is that basically any resources
(14:42):
you give them are a necessary evil because above and
beyond that, they can't produce goods and services. This is
why I have discrible anything profitable. This is why I
have just funder profit motive.
Speaker 3 (14:52):
This is why I have to scribble my notes.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
No, when they talk about just taxing the rich, which
you don't realize is the majority that they're talking to,
you're really taxing small business, which is the largest employer.
And how are they going to pay for that tax?
They're going to have to cut back on employees. So,
just just like when they do the argument with the
minimum wage, what did we see in Washington, Yeah, you
got your fifteen twenty dollars an hour, and guess what,
you got a lot of automation and a lot of
people lost their jobs, and those that kept their jobs
(15:15):
wanted to work half as much because they didn't have
to work full time to make the same amount of money. Yeah,
you got to base things. You know, we're going to choose.
We're in a war between a Marxist socialist hybrid and capitalism.
But I think the most fascinating part about this interview
is is what's built in, and that is that the
true people that run this economy see through these ridiculous narratives.
(15:37):
Maybe voters don't see through them as well.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
That's a good takeaway, I agree.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
The one thing that markets do not get fooled by,
it's polls, it's politicians. They're forward looking, and ultimately markets
are constantly looking on what they believe is going to happen,
not what people talk about. And that's why markets have
generally been one of the most on partisan forces. And
the great example in recent times because you and I
(16:05):
have spent a lot of time since I started doing
your show talking about COVID and all the tragedies that
happened during COVID or policy. You know who never fell
for the nonsense that eighty five million Americans were going
to die? And all of this was more markets. The
Dow dropped thirty six percent and thirty one days and
started recovering about two weeks after they figured out that
(16:25):
the fatality rate was less than one percent, and the
stock market ended up the year they shut down the
whole economy, and markets are still up on the year
forward looking basis. Markets never bought the doom and glob
of Anthony Fauci.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Great final point, Love our visits David Bonson Bonson Financial Group.
Look for them on Fox Business all the time, and
we'll talk next week or sooner of conditions warrant. Thanks David.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
This is your morning show with Michael Deltona.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
We can't have your morning show without your voice. Love
it when you email Michael d at iHeartMedia dot com.
Catherine Wrights one, I want to know what time it is.
It's a lot of work to take out my phone,
get it out of my pocket, activate the screen.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
It's just easier to look at my wrist. I never wear.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Watches anymore, and I certainly can't understand the need for
a Nintendo alarm clock when my phone is now the
alarm clock. Randy Wrights, I think it's sad that there
are people back in Kamala Harris, sad that there's that
many people's morals in the toilet again, just to address
the matrix and they're looking at you thinking it's sad
(17:32):
that you would vote for Donald Trump, or that you
would vote to take away a woman's right.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
The better way to say it is America is very divided.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Now.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
What we need to get back to is there a God?
And answer that and if there is his way, truth
in life matters. Our founding fathers considered God when they
determined you have a human right to life, liberty into
pursuit of happiness. Now this generation has to decide does
that apply to the unborn? I say yes, that's what's
(18:01):
dividing us right now. It seems to be enough to
just be divided. No, let's take them one at a
time and not make it about right versus left, but
rather right versus wrong. And then, in a culture that
has abandoned God for moral relativism, it's not such an
easy question of what is right and what is wrong.
That's why we're living in such chaos. But I get
what you're saying. We also got some talkbacks.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
My name is John from Salem, Ohio, and my morning
show should be your morning show.
Speaker 5 (18:32):
Good morning, Michael. I'll look forward to waking up each
morning seeing what great information you have to share with us.
I appreciate it. I noticed ex President Obama is out
on the campaign trail something for Kamala. He is like
Stephen in Django. He's so disingenuous. He isn't helping his
(18:55):
people at all. It's a shame.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
It's more like the character in Sarah and the Thing
that wouldn't go away. Remember when presidents would go away.
They don't go away anymore, Aaron. Real is back because
the cost of healthcare is soaring, even as inflation is
easing a little bit. That doesn't mean you're going to
have more take home pay as you get ready to
do all of your insurance and withholding for twenty twenty
five very soon. Most people's window is this month. You're
(19:21):
going to see costs are going up. That'll suck up
whatever little paycheck you were going to have with inflation
going down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Aaron, there's just no end in sight in this.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
If we did a bar graph of this, if we
did a bar graph of the debt and the bar
graph of healthcare costs, I'm guessing they would look like
the same mountain.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
They would. It's incredible, and frankly, it doesn't vote well
for our nation. Either of these like these are the
type of I think canaries in a coal mine that
really spell out massive trouble in the years ahead. But
we do know that the cost of employer health insurance
up seven percent, so this has been secondive years of increases.
Three thousand bucks is the average for a family premium increase.
(20:04):
This year, it's going to bring it to just over
twenty five thousand dollars. What this ultimately translates to is
businesses giving higher costs onto workers in the form of
smaller raises or job cuts. It's real stress on the economy.
And even though we've begun to see inflation cool down
in other sectors, we haven't really seen it in healthcare.
And that's typically because you see healthcare locked into these
(20:27):
multi year contracts. So yes, it's October, like by November
first they want you to have that sorted out your
next year nonsense, And yeah it's going to go up.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Be prepared.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
So I always say, the only worse than than not
doing anything is doing something that really doesn't do anything
and thinking you've done something when you really haven't.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
That just explains all this.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
So in the end, we had all this focus on
Obamacare named after him. But affordable healthcare is what it
actually is, and of course its number one goal was
to ensure everyone, and that didn't take into account people
that didn't want to be insured, that wanted to just
be irresponsible. People were getting healthcare, nobody was dying in
alleys with flies in their eyes. And then that the
(21:14):
people paying were having to absorb the cost of the
people that weren't paying. And so this was just going
to move it from the hospital to the premium. In
the end, it didn't ensure everyone, it didn't lower premiums.
And quite frankly, that's problematic. And I could get people
really mad at me right now and say, because the
majority of Americans who have healthcare get it through their employer,
(21:34):
whereas if there wasn't that and everybody went into one pool,
well then actuarily you would spread things out more. So,
you know, part of the reason Obamacare or affordable care
struggles is because of the majority of people that get
their insurance through their employer. And then I was gonna
get a story today anti obesity medications now maybe covered
by employers, and I'm thinking to myself, now, why do
(21:55):
they want to replace this with robots? Now they even
got to pay for our fat. But now you're fat employees,
like you're smoking employees. Used to you used to shame
the smokers. They're going to drive up everybody's cause. I mean,
it's not only as bad as seven percent as you're saying.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
I think the future looks even.
Speaker 6 (22:12):
Worse, Michael, the problem Like, I'll just two thoughts on
that real quick. Number one, I think the biggest issue
with the Wildcare was that they insisted on keeping the
insurance companies a part of this, Like, no, if you
want a socialized health care, socialized healthcare, keeping why do
we just want to make the insurance companies continue.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
To get richer.
Speaker 6 (22:30):
That was a big issue with it. But then beyond that,
and this was an incredible article that I read yesterday
that we're beginning to see health tourism. There's always been
you know, if you want to go get a nose job,
you can go somewhere and get a cheaper Yes, that's
always existed, like the cut and open the surgeries. But
now we're seeing preventative health tourism where you can go
to pretty much any industrialized nation and like, let's say
(22:53):
your shoulder has been bugging you for a couple months
and you're like, oh, God, an MRI, it's going to
cost five thousand dollars and getting in and then it's
too much. Whatever, I'll suck it up and then or
or you book a trip to Portugal, you get your
blood drawn, you get your MRI, and it costs you
four hundred dollars and you're like, oh, and you get
to see Porto along the way, so or wherever.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
Whether you're always.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Looking, you're always looking to find the solution in a trip, you're.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
The same person that you're the same person was.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Pelling if you want to go see Taylor Swift, go
see here in Europe. That way you get to go
see Europe and your ticket's only one hundred dollars instead
of seven hundred.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
Yes, I see a lot of value out in expanding
ones for at the point being like, I think of
my husband who grew up in Mexico and I talk
about him a lot on air, and his family they
would always go to Houston for like dental visits. It
was just like a part of his lived experience. And
I'm now like, wow, preventative care. We're seeing Americans in
the country that's most have the best healthcare in the world,
(23:49):
pick up and go to any industrial nation, really any
of them, like you just need an MRI machine because
it's cost effective. And then you're like, oh, but we're capitalists.
You know what you're looking not is crony capitalism that enriches
the pharmaceutical companies and the health care provider, the insurance companies.
COVID is, COVID was the.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Great COVID was the great villain of that. Uh.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
You got to be careful though in that when you
hand pick things that in other words, when when you
solve problems based on circumstances, it's like it's like in medicine,
trying to solve things based just on symptoms rather than cause.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
So we got to go back.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
We got to go back to the big picture, which
is is health insurance a human right? And I don't
think America's effectively answered that, meaning irresponsible people can have
irresponsible consequences. See, we don't want to see that in America,
but it's true. And then we want to penalize everybody
who does plan, penalize people like you that do we
(24:50):
eat right, do exercise every day to pay for everybody
that makes bad choice. That's where the you know, I
think there is a societal and found daytional question that
isn't being asked and answered properly. And that's why every
answer after that goes in the wrong direction.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Because no, I don't.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I think you'll have a hard time proving to me
that government that is failing everything would somehow do healthcare well,
or that government controlled healthcare is going just swell other places,
because I know a lot of people when it really
hits the fan, they can't get in.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
They'd be dead.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And when you're dealing with things like cancer that you know,
immediacy is everything and treatment and in terms of outcomes,
you got to have affordability, you got to have access,
you got to have accountability, and you got to have
quality care.
Speaker 6 (25:38):
You're right, and we don't have.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
That, and we don't have that, and a lot of
others don't have it too so but that but there's
nobody serious that wants to make this.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
It's no different than abortion.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
They like the fight more than the than the real
answer and the real solution.
Speaker 6 (25:51):
No, there was one candidate RFK and they wouldn't even
let them run well, and I know that that's like
the audience is kind of freak out from that. But
the reality is we have a reactionary system, and yes.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
A threat RFK is a real threat to the pharmacist
big follow exactly.
Speaker 6 (26:09):
And that's why it's like if like, if you're looking
for what a corporatetocracy might look like, like, yeah, like,
so the idea of being that we have a reactionary system.
And yes, when you have cancer and you need you're
on death doorstep. I am so grateful to be here.
We have the but preventative care. What no, we make
we make our people sick literally the food that like
(26:29):
we're not even asking for more laws on the food,
but just like, don't allow the crap and the food
that they don't allow in Europe. Why why can't we
just have the matching one? No, like, And you want
to know why. And I'm not saying we should have
socialized health care. What I'm saying is, if you have
socialized health care and you're being dispassionate about it and
you're only looking at the numbers, what's the best way
to keep your cost down? Don't have sick people in
(26:50):
the first place. What's the best way to not have
sick people in the first place. Make sure they're not
eating things that kill them. That's it, so like like
it's it's a very simple correlation. If you don't put
crap in your body, you're gonna have lower cost for
health care. And we allow poison literally like petrochemicals into cheetos,
And I'm not picking on cheetahs. We do it in
all other things. But like the idea of being like, no,
(27:12):
how about we just don't do.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
That, I mean, you're not gonna get an argument for me.
But there are a lot of questions we don't ask,
like what is the proper size and role of government?
What is the role and responsibility of the self government?
Do we even believe in self governing anymore? Do we
really believe in limited government anymore? All these all these
questions have to be answered before we can get to
the problem. They're bigger than the problems we're trying to solve,
(27:36):
and we don't honestly address the problems we're trying to
solve because of them. But bottom line is, healthcare is
rising and expected to rise another seven percent. So whatever
little relief you're getting from inflation going down, it's about
to get sucked up by healthcare.
Speaker 6 (27:50):
That's take a vacation and a blood test.
Speaker 1 (27:53):
But MI can weasel a trip to I don't want
to go to Mexico though Portugal.
Speaker 6 (27:58):
Portugal is great healthcare and it's cheap, and if you're
on the East coast, it's pretty quick. You know, I'm joking, man,
I'm not.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Do they have the nitrous ox side there?
Speaker 4 (28:06):
Nah?
Speaker 6 (28:06):
I get of course they do.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Aaron Rayel appreciate your reporting. We'll talk again tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (28:13):
I'm a Lando now in Smyrna, Tennessee, and my morning show,
it's your morning show, Mike good Deal. Journal Joining us
from Miami is Rory O'Neil Rory. This kind of became
as much of a tornadic event as it was a
hurricane event.
Speaker 7 (28:30):
Yeah, and we're still trying to assess exactly what the
heck happened overnight. Governor DeSantis just wrapping up her press
conference or in the process of wrapping it up, and
damage assessments are going to get underway. But right now
we're still in search and rescue mode. A lot of
high water rescues are still happening as we speak, in
places like clearwater in Saint Petersburg. You know, there's a
(28:51):
time when first responders police fire can't go out there
because the winds are too strong with the flood water
is too deep. But I think it was about four
five hour window there where even police couldn't do much
to help. But they started resuming operations around one two
o'clock this morning Eastern time, and they are continuing as
they try to reach people who were calling for help overnight.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
Well, I guess you could say the roof. The roof
is open at.
Speaker 7 (29:15):
Tropicana, right, Yeah, it's retractable now. So yeah, Tropic Caana
Field took a big hit, as we all could see
by some pretty amazing video. It's oddly funny that just
a couple months ago they got a deal for a
brand new stadium to replace that venue that is probably
the least popular in all of Major League Baseball, so
(29:37):
it's a welcome change. So I don't think a lot
of people were crying when they saw the roof go.
But now the question is how much do you spend
on fixing it when you've already got plans for a
new one.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Well, I was gonna I don't want to make jokes
during a hurricane, but if they were sad about anything,
it was that the rest of the stadium was still there.
That's how bad they would like it to disappear. The tornadoes.
I have a friend, Vincent. He lives in St. Lucy County,
and at one point they had four tornadoes and thirty
minutes on the ground at the same time. Katrina, I
think we didn't document it very well at all. And
(30:09):
I told my anecdotal story about in my neighborhood. I'm
driving around and I'm going, this isn't hurricane, this is tornado.
I mean it was a clear tornadic plant path and
a signature destruction. Some have more tornadoes than others. This
one did a.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
Lot more and a lot more powerful tornadoes. Typically we
see these quick little ones spin up and then they
go away. Maybe they knock down a tree, limb, or
a mailbox. In this case, they looked like more of
the Oklahoma style tornado, massive wedge tornadoes that picked up
cars tossed them around. There's a fascinating video that shows
(30:43):
a construction dumpster, you know, one of those long ones.
The dumpster was on the roof of a two story home.
We're in the roof of that two story home. So
pretty remarkable how things got picked up and tossed around.
There was a ten thousand square foot building operated by
the Sheriff's office actually where they parked vehicles to protect
them from the weather. It got taken down by that
(31:04):
tornado as well. So a lot to still assess there.
We know there are multiple fatalities, but again we barely
got the sun up, and they really are just going
to get the heart of trying to assess exactly what happened.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
I remember a couple of years after nine to eleven
and a lot of people wonder worse God in days
like that, and a rabbi i happened to be in
an event, gave a speech and he telled a bunch
of stories to kind of point to where God was
when bad things happen. This could have been worse a five.
It made landfall as a three. The trajectory away from
the Tampa Bay. We actually had water leave the bay
(31:38):
rather than flood. Could have been so much worse. We
got three point two million without power that need to
be restored. And really the kind of fatalities that we're
talking about are tornatic related more so than even hurricanes.
This could have been worse, but it's going to be expensive.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
And you'll see God today, Yes, and all.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
The people and what they're doing and search and recovery
and repair. All right, this will go out into the
ocean probably by noonish today, right, and then dissipate.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
They're really it's already gone.
Speaker 7 (32:10):
I mean a couple of squalls here and there, but
essentially the bulk of it has moved off the Daytona coast,
so it's going to continue outwards into the Atlantic and
then just fall apart.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
With the colder water. Great reporting, Rory. We'll talk again tomorrow.
Thank you, Thanks Michael. All right, final say, I wanted
to get this in. I know it's on everybody's mind
who's going to win. And I want to be that
quiet confidence that tellis you, no matter who wins, we're
going to be fine. Or you have a much bigger
view of the presidency than perhaps.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
You should.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
But what makes us interesting when we look at the
latest polling numbers, and I don't have time to do
all of them, but we have all October ninth polling,
Arizona is forty nine to forty seven point six Trump,
Nevada forty seven and a half, Trump forty eight point six,
Kamala Wisconsin forty eight point two Trump forty eight point seven,
Kamala half a point, half, a point point and a half.
(33:05):
Nothing is more than a two point lead with all
of the swing states, and that includes Georgia, North Carolina,
and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. Here's what has
the Democrats so worried and nervous. And here's what if
you're looking for Donald Trump to win, should give you
some encouragement. Keep in mind Hillary led by six point
three in twenty sixteen in Wisconsin, Biden led by five
(33:28):
and a half. Biden led by five and a half
but only went on to win by point six in
twenty twenty, and Hillary led by six and a half
and went on to lose. And I could do numbers
like that for Arizona, Nevada, especially Michigan and Pennsylvania. And
that's what's got them so nervous, and what causes that.
(33:50):
You're within the margin of error and the underpolling of
Donald Trump. So he may even look like he's down
a half a point or a point, but he's really
up by three. That's why they're That's why none of
us know what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
We're all in this together.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
This is your Morning Show with Michael Vindel, Joiner,
Hi, I'm Michael. I'd love to have you listen to
your morning show live. Every day We're heard on great
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listen live. But in the meantime, enjoy the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Well two three, starting your morning off right. A new
way of talk, a new way of understanding. Because we're
in the stage. This is your morning show with Michael Odell.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Join the six minutes after the hour. Welcome to Thursday,
the tenth of October.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
You're of our Lord.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Twenty twenty four, the morning after Hurricane Milton made landfall
in Florida. One of my friends, Vincent, who lives along
the East coast, said it was just crazy. They had
four tornadoes within thirty minutes. It really was a tornadic
event as much as a hurricane event. My friend show
(00:58):
Joe has his priorities. At least I got to see
the Yankees and the Mets both win before the power
went out. God took care of me. Feeling very blessed
this morning. Last night was one for the ages. Yeah,
if you've never ridden out a Category three or higher hurricane,
it'll get your attention. Officials in Saint Lucy County, Florida
reporting multiple fatalities related to Milton, most of them associated
(01:21):
with tornado damage from the outer bands of Milton. He's
been downgraded since to a Category one, pounding Daytona area
and now heading into the Atlantic where he'll dissolve. A
flash flood emergency continues some portions of western central Florida.
Nearly three million homes and businesses three point two to
be exact, according to Rory, are without power waking up
(01:41):
this morning. Now, in non related hurricane news, there's politics.
One of the things that I got to earlier was
this analogy from a weatherman we used to have in
Tulsa who was on the air with me, and I said, well, Gary,
what are you expecting? And he said anywhere from a
dusting to two feet of snow. And I said, well,
you're bound to be right. And that's how these polls
look in these swing states. It could be anywhere from uh,
(02:05):
too close to call to a landslide. All right, So
you have no swing state led by more than two
points and most of them less than one point. So
the margin of era alone is going to make that
a crazy ride between now an election day, let alone turnout,
let alone underpolling. Let me give you an example of
the underpolling. I wanted to get to this. In October
(02:28):
of twenty twenty, Biden was leading Wisconsin by five. He
went on to win by zero point six. That was
almost off five percentage points. And Harrison only leads by
point five right now. So you know, like we always say,
and people think I'm just trying to blow smoke up
(02:49):
your skirt.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Well, if Trump is.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Down by a half, that means he's leading by three,
so you know that, and it goes down that way
for all the different swing states. So again, heading four
weeks out, we don't know what the certain future is now.
That brings up this question due elections. I mean, a
hurricane was making landfall yesterday and the dows up two hundred.
(03:14):
The election in future of the country is uncertain. So
I thought, wouldn't it be interesting to talk to our money?
Was an economist, David Bonds? And do elections really impact
the market, and if so, for how long and how
much does the winner actually impact the economy ultimately. I
know it's that age old question, David, but it needs
to be asked for people to worry all the time,
a lot less than they think, I bet is your.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
Answer, Well, that is true, and it's something I've written
about a great deal at Dividendcafe dot com, where I
do my weekly investment writing. I did a whole special
issue in the election where I make the point that
presidents matter in the sense that sometimes big legislation gets done,
(03:55):
and presidents can have the ability to drive legislation. But
presidents can do that by themselves. The Congress can create
legislation whether a president likes it or not, and the
Congress can block legislation. As we saw it, and the
Biden administration build Back Better never happened. And by the way,
(04:15):
that wasn't even a Republican Senate that blocked it. That
was too moderate Democrats that blocked it. I did my
own study. I took one hundred different things that political
candidates had talked about, promised, threatened, whatever you want to
say in campaigns in my adult lifetime, and ninety four
out of one hundred of them never happened. We're just
(04:38):
simply dealing with the difference between what people say on
a campaign trail and what they themselves are serious about doing.
I think half of the stuff both of these candidates
are saying right now they're not even serious about. But
then far more important than that is what can be done.
Politics is the art of the possible. And you are
not going to get a tax on unrealized capital games
(05:01):
passed in Congress. It's never going to happen.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
So the market knows what market knows how to see
through the narratives that the people can sometimes be fooled about,
especially living in a media matrix and a social media matrix.
David Bonnson's Our Money was an economist, all right. So
one of the things that impresses me and I can't remember.
I think we met through your publicist, who I happened
to know in Nashville when your book came out Full Time,
which was brilliant. He knew I was a Christian and
(05:24):
I would love it. I have since come to love
everything about you and what I want to stress everybody
when we go on the air. David has no idea
what I'm going to ask him, So rewind and listen
to that last three minute answer because he didn't know
the question until he heard it live. So I think
I can do this with you, and you're one of
the few people I could. Let's say Kamala Harris wins
(05:45):
the election, but the Republicans have control of the Senate
in the House, well, and.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
I would point out by the way, she doesn't need
death control. The Republicans don't need that control the Senate
and the House is one or the other.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Yeah, but it looks like they're going to have both.
At least.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
This thing is going to end with Kamala Harris president
and Republicans controlling the Senate in the House, or it's
going to end with Donald Trump president and the Republicans
controlling the House and the Senate, which is the second
question I was going to ask you the first thing first,
the check and balances. Republicans get Congress, Democrats get the
White House.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
What does that do to a market?
Speaker 4 (06:21):
It doesn't move the market one way or the other.
Other things would end up moving the market at that point. Now,
all things being equal, the market would prefer the latter
outcome you described President Trump with a Republican House and Senate.
But the reasons for that are still push and pull.
The markets would not like tariffs or the volatility of
(06:43):
the threat of tariffs, but they would write deregulation and
most importantly, where I think Trump was strongest in his
first term, they would like energy independence, right, and so
those It isn't why President Trump is again going to
come in and move the corporate income rate from thirty
five percent to twenty one percent. He already did that,
(07:04):
and so the sentiment matters, The bully pulpit matters, small
business optimism matters. Those are things that marginally move the needle.
But really, if we're gonna have a recession with the
Republican president and a Republican Congress, then the market's going
to go down anyways. That's why I always say these
(07:25):
macroeconomic didn'ts. We talk like the president is a king
and they're not. And so I think monetary policy and
macroeconomic policy matter a lot more than just who is
sitting in the White House.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
And why do they think they're kings because we treat
them like kings and act like they're kings and they're not.
Here's the last one I want to give you, and
that is like when Donald Trump won in twenty sixteen,
I mean you had to notice the market went through
the roof the day after the election.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
I mean through the roof.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
We didn't see it really go down and crash when
Biden won in twenty twenty, do you think there'll be
some movement? I mean the market is already so hi,
I mean what, because uncertainty is what markets don't like.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
But there's a lot of built in.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
Certainty that yeah. No, you make a great point uncertainty. Generally.
This has changed a little bit in some years, but
generally the market's really stalled out or peter out. That
was the case in twenty sixteen, that markets were just
kind of flatlining for a while going in the election,
and just simply having an outcome allowed things to kind
(08:27):
of breathe a bit. But it would be hard to think, like, Okay,
let's say President Trump wins on election night, is the
market going to jump up thousands of points when it's
already trading at twenty two times next year's earnings.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
No, because it's built in. See, and you're the expert.
That's why I'm it sounds like I'm making a statement.
I'm really kind of asking for affirmation. I think eight
years of Barack Obama was uncertainty the damaging things he
was doing, but all the damaging things he was trying
to do.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
That he didn't get done.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And then Donald Trump won and it looked like the
Republicans were going to easily have control of the Senate
as well. That created a boom. We don't have that now.
The market's already high, we're already in debt, and we're
going to get more in debt with either of them.
I just don't see it having more than ever. I
would say, I don't see it relevantly having much movement,
not on the presidency. Maybe control, if you get the
(09:21):
presidency and the House and Senate, then maybe a little bit.
But I don't think we're going to see any big movement.
I actually find this very irrelevant for the market well.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
And even worse, Michael, you could see the market rally
from traders just sort of thinking it's supposed to and
then selling off.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
Right.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
You may very well get some suckers that come in
and try to play that the same way, thinking it
is twenty sixteen. Again, keep in mind, Obama's never had
one single down year in the market when he was president,
and so while we can say that Obama represented a
lot of big government and a lot of bad policy,
and a lot of things that were down for markets.
(10:00):
All of that's true. Yet the fact of the matter
is it didn't matter to investors because it was coming
out of the Great Recession and earnings had gotten down
to fifty dollars a share in the S and P.
And by the time he left office they were back
to one hundred and fifty. Because you know, the free
market works, the economy recovers, and its timing is a
(10:21):
big part of this. The person who wins in November
is not necessarily coming in at the best timing. They're
coming in with two different factors that matter for markets. One,
markets are already high. It's always best to come in
when markets are low. And b coming in with questionable economy.
It's always best to come in when you're about to
(10:42):
see a big surge higher.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
And the c would be and both planned to add
five trillion dollars.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
To the debt.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
Well, and that's right. But see, the markets wouldn't mind
adding to the debt if it was being added productively.
Nobody in the right mind believes that any to the
debt right now is productive. It's all counter productive. Anything
we're doing with the debt is taking away from economic growth.
This is the opposite of what they call teens and multiplier.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I want to conclude with this. David Bonnson is our
money with from Bonson Financial Group. He's also author of
the book Full Time.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
John F.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Kennedy explained it so well in nineteen sixty two. Now
you know, he was saying, you know, people are thinking, well,
we're in a recession. We've got to raise taxes in
order to fund government. No, just the opposite. Now's the
time to cut taxes. Allowing the American people to have
more of their money is first a moral issue. They
earned it. It's theirs, not the government's. First, and tell
them how much they can keep, how much we have
(11:39):
changed over sixty years. Then he said, it's also the
smart thing to do people. You've got to trust what
people will do with their money. They'll pay down their debt.
They'll spend it as they spend it. Business grow, as
business grow, they hire more. As they hire more. We
have more tax payers burdened less, not more people entitled
wanting more. More burdened less, and you actually fund government better,
(12:03):
which we proved with all the tax cuts, first with
Kennedy but he didn't live long enough to really see it,
then with Reagan, and then with Bush, although Bush kind
of outspent it, and then again with Trump. This whole
mentality has been lost. It's just pure partisan pandering for
votes and unproductive spending, and now we're headed towards forty
trillion in debt.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Pretty bad.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
You could even add a little bit with Bill Clinton
on the tax cut because on capital gain cuts he
was pretty good, and that led to a lot more
capital formation, and you could see what the impact there
was with Silicon Valley and real estate and other things.
This is just sort of a class warfare issue. At
the end of the day. There's very little debate among
serious economists that cutting when you tax something, you get
(12:51):
less of it. When you cut taxes, you get more
of it. And so if we want more productivity and
more income and more capital formation and more investment and
more risk stake and all the things that give us
a higher standard of living in a higher quality of life,
than you want to tax less of it. And Kennedy
Reagan are the two great examples in the last seventy
five years that empirically proved the point. The Trump tax
(13:14):
cups did the same. And here's the deal. Corporate tax
rates went down, wages for low earners went up net
of inflation. The highest income growth for African Americans is
a percentage in history. I believe companies with their tax
burden did pay people like me dividends, they did buy backstock,
(13:34):
they did give increases in an executive comp but they
also they also raised wages and hired more people at
the lower end of the income spectrum. More So, you
have to phosophically what you want. Do you want poor
people getting poorer just as long as rich people don't
get richer? Or do you want rich and poor to
(13:57):
get richer? That's the question.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
And then you know the government is already you do
you Never you wake up one morning and the government
is the largest, most secure employer, You're in trouble.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
I will say this too, that.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
It is also worthy of note that you when when
they boy, I just want blank, What was I going
to say?
Speaker 3 (14:15):
I never had my mind do that before.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
Well, but the reason why isn't the case that the
government being the largest employer is a bad thing? Is
it just simply because we have a moral view or
a theological view or an anti governmental view. I mean,
maybe those things are true, but I would just add
the economic view. Michael, why do you not want government
being a larger portion of the economy. The government has
to do some things with their government needs to have
some employees. The reason why is that basically any resources
(14:42):
you give them are a necessary evil because above and
beyond that, they can't produce goods and services. This is
why I have discrible anything profitable. This is why I
have just funder profit motive.
Speaker 3 (14:52):
This is why I have to scribble my notes.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
No, when they talk about just taxing the rich, which
you don't realize is the majority that they're talking to,
you're really taxing small business, which is the largest employer.
And how are they going to pay for that tax?
They're going to have to cut back on employees. So,
just just like when they do the argument with the
minimum wage, what did we see in Washington, Yeah, you
got your fifteen twenty dollars an hour, and guess what,
you got a lot of automation and a lot of
people lost their jobs, and those that kept their jobs
(15:15):
wanted to work half as much because they didn't have
to work full time to make the same amount of money. Yeah,
you got to base things. You know, we're going to choose.
We're in a war between a Marxist socialist hybrid and capitalism.
But I think the most fascinating part about this interview
is is what's built in, and that is that the
true people that run this economy see through these ridiculous narratives.
(15:37):
Maybe voters don't see through them as well.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
That's a good takeaway, I agree.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
The one thing that markets do not get fooled by,
it's polls, it's politicians. They're forward looking, and ultimately markets
are constantly looking on what they believe is going to happen,
not what people talk about. And that's why markets have
generally been one of the most on partisan forces. And
the great example in recent times because you and I
(16:05):
have spent a lot of time since I started doing
your show talking about COVID and all the tragedies that
happened during COVID or policy. You know who never fell
for the nonsense that eighty five million Americans were going
to die? And all of this was more markets. The
Dow dropped thirty six percent and thirty one days and
started recovering about two weeks after they figured out that
(16:25):
the fatality rate was less than one percent, and the
stock market ended up the year they shut down the
whole economy, and markets are still up on the year
forward looking basis. Markets never bought the doom and glob
of Anthony Fauci.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Great final point, Love our visits David Bonson Bonson Financial Group.
Look for them on Fox Business all the time, and
we'll talk next week or sooner of conditions warrant. Thanks David.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
This is your morning show with Michael Deltona.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
We can't have your morning show without your voice. Love
it when you email Michael d at iHeartMedia dot com.
Catherine Wrights one, I want to know what time it is.
It's a lot of work to take out my phone,
get it out of my pocket, activate the screen.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
It's just easier to look at my wrist. I never wear.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Watches anymore, and I certainly can't understand the need for
a Nintendo alarm clock when my phone is now the
alarm clock. Randy Wrights, I think it's sad that there
are people back in Kamala Harris, sad that there's that
many people's morals in the toilet again, just to address
the matrix and they're looking at you thinking it's sad
(17:32):
that you would vote for Donald Trump, or that you
would vote to take away a woman's right.
Speaker 3 (17:36):
The better way to say it is America is very divided.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Now.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
What we need to get back to is there a God?
And answer that and if there is his way, truth
in life matters. Our founding fathers considered God when they
determined you have a human right to life, liberty into
pursuit of happiness. Now this generation has to decide does
that apply to the unborn? I say yes, that's what's
(18:01):
dividing us right now. It seems to be enough to
just be divided. No, let's take them one at a
time and not make it about right versus left, but
rather right versus wrong. And then, in a culture that
has abandoned God for moral relativism, it's not such an
easy question of what is right and what is wrong.
That's why we're living in such chaos. But I get
what you're saying. We also got some talkbacks.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
My name is John from Salem, Ohio, and my morning
show should be your morning show.
Speaker 5 (18:32):
Good morning, Michael. I'll look forward to waking up each
morning seeing what great information you have to share with us.
I appreciate it. I noticed ex President Obama is out
on the campaign trail something for Kamala. He is like
Stephen in Django. He's so disingenuous. He isn't helping his
(18:55):
people at all. It's a shame.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
It's more like the character in Sarah and the Thing
that wouldn't go away. Remember when presidents would go away.
They don't go away anymore, Aaron. Real is back because
the cost of healthcare is soaring, even as inflation is
easing a little bit. That doesn't mean you're going to
have more take home pay as you get ready to
do all of your insurance and withholding for twenty twenty
five very soon. Most people's window is this month. You're
(19:21):
going to see costs are going up. That'll suck up
whatever little paycheck you were going to have with inflation
going down a little bit.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Aaron, there's just no end in sight in this.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
If we did a bar graph of this, if we
did a bar graph of the debt and the bar
graph of healthcare costs, I'm guessing they would look like
the same mountain.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
They would. It's incredible, and frankly, it doesn't vote well
for our nation. Either of these like these are the
type of I think canaries in a coal mine that
really spell out massive trouble in the years ahead. But
we do know that the cost of employer health insurance
up seven percent, so this has been secondive years of increases.
Three thousand bucks is the average for a family premium increase.
(20:04):
This year, it's going to bring it to just over
twenty five thousand dollars. What this ultimately translates to is
businesses giving higher costs onto workers in the form of
smaller raises or job cuts. It's real stress on the economy.
And even though we've begun to see inflation cool down
in other sectors, we haven't really seen it in healthcare.
And that's typically because you see healthcare locked into these
(20:27):
multi year contracts. So yes, it's October, like by November
first they want you to have that sorted out your
next year nonsense, And yeah it's going to go up.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Be prepared.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
So I always say, the only worse than than not
doing anything is doing something that really doesn't do anything
and thinking you've done something when you really haven't.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
That just explains all this.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
So in the end, we had all this focus on
Obamacare named after him. But affordable healthcare is what it
actually is, and of course its number one goal was
to ensure everyone, and that didn't take into account people
that didn't want to be insured, that wanted to just
be irresponsible. People were getting healthcare, nobody was dying in
alleys with flies in their eyes. And then that the
(21:14):
people paying were having to absorb the cost of the
people that weren't paying. And so this was just going
to move it from the hospital to the premium. In
the end, it didn't ensure everyone, it didn't lower premiums.
And quite frankly, that's problematic. And I could get people
really mad at me right now and say, because the
majority of Americans who have healthcare get it through their employer,
(21:34):
whereas if there wasn't that and everybody went into one pool,
well then actuarily you would spread things out more. So,
you know, part of the reason Obamacare or affordable care
struggles is because of the majority of people that get
their insurance through their employer. And then I was gonna
get a story today anti obesity medications now maybe covered
by employers, and I'm thinking to myself, now, why do
(21:55):
they want to replace this with robots? Now they even
got to pay for our fat. But now you're fat employees,
like you're smoking employees. Used to you used to shame
the smokers. They're going to drive up everybody's cause. I mean,
it's not only as bad as seven percent as you're saying.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
I think the future looks even.
Speaker 6 (22:12):
Worse, Michael, the problem Like, I'll just two thoughts on
that real quick. Number one, I think the biggest issue
with the Wildcare was that they insisted on keeping the
insurance companies a part of this, Like, no, if you
want a socialized health care, socialized healthcare, keeping why do
we just want to make the insurance companies continue.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
To get richer.
Speaker 6 (22:30):
That was a big issue with it. But then beyond that,
and this was an incredible article that I read yesterday
that we're beginning to see health tourism. There's always been
you know, if you want to go get a nose job,
you can go somewhere and get a cheaper Yes, that's
always existed, like the cut and open the surgeries. But
now we're seeing preventative health tourism where you can go
to pretty much any industrialized nation and like, let's say
(22:53):
your shoulder has been bugging you for a couple months
and you're like, oh, God, an MRI, it's going to
cost five thousand dollars and getting in and then it's
too much. Whatever, I'll suck it up and then or
or you book a trip to Portugal, you get your
blood drawn, you get your MRI, and it costs you
four hundred dollars and you're like, oh, and you get
to see Porto along the way, so or wherever.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
Whether you're always.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Looking, you're always looking to find the solution in a trip, you're.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
The same person that you're the same person was.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Pelling if you want to go see Taylor Swift, go
see here in Europe. That way you get to go
see Europe and your ticket's only one hundred dollars instead
of seven hundred.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
Yes, I see a lot of value out in expanding
ones for at the point being like, I think of
my husband who grew up in Mexico and I talk
about him a lot on air, and his family they
would always go to Houston for like dental visits. It
was just like a part of his lived experience. And
I'm now like, wow, preventative care. We're seeing Americans in
the country that's most have the best healthcare in the world,
(23:49):
pick up and go to any industrial nation, really any
of them, like you just need an MRI machine because
it's cost effective. And then you're like, oh, but we're capitalists.
You know what you're looking not is crony capitalism that enriches
the pharmaceutical companies and the health care provider, the insurance companies.
COVID is, COVID was the.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Great COVID was the great villain of that. Uh.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
You got to be careful though in that when you
hand pick things that in other words, when when you
solve problems based on circumstances, it's like it's like in medicine,
trying to solve things based just on symptoms rather than cause.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
So we got to go back.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
We got to go back to the big picture, which
is is health insurance a human right? And I don't
think America's effectively answered that, meaning irresponsible people can have
irresponsible consequences. See, we don't want to see that in America,
but it's true. And then we want to penalize everybody
who does plan, penalize people like you that do we
(24:50):
eat right, do exercise every day to pay for everybody
that makes bad choice. That's where the you know, I
think there is a societal and found daytional question that
isn't being asked and answered properly. And that's why every
answer after that goes in the wrong direction.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Because no, I don't.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I think you'll have a hard time proving to me
that government that is failing everything would somehow do healthcare well,
or that government controlled healthcare is going just swell other places,
because I know a lot of people when it really
hits the fan, they can't get in.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
They'd be dead.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And when you're dealing with things like cancer that you know,
immediacy is everything and treatment and in terms of outcomes,
you got to have affordability, you got to have access,
you got to have accountability, and you got to have
quality care.
Speaker 6 (25:38):
You're right, and we don't have.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
That, and we don't have that, and a lot of
others don't have it too so but that but there's
nobody serious that wants to make this.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
It's no different than abortion.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
They like the fight more than the than the real
answer and the real solution.
Speaker 6 (25:51):
No, there was one candidate RFK and they wouldn't even
let them run well, and I know that that's like
the audience is kind of freak out from that. But
the reality is we have a reactionary system, and yes.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
A threat RFK is a real threat to the pharmacist
big follow exactly.
Speaker 6 (26:09):
And that's why it's like if like, if you're looking
for what a corporatetocracy might look like, like, yeah, like,
so the idea of being that we have a reactionary system.
And yes, when you have cancer and you need you're
on death doorstep. I am so grateful to be here.
We have the but preventative care. What no, we make
we make our people sick literally the food that like
(26:29):
we're not even asking for more laws on the food,
but just like, don't allow the crap and the food
that they don't allow in Europe. Why why can't we
just have the matching one? No, like, And you want
to know why. And I'm not saying we should have
socialized health care. What I'm saying is, if you have
socialized health care and you're being dispassionate about it and
you're only looking at the numbers, what's the best way
to keep your cost down? Don't have sick people in
(26:50):
the first place. What's the best way to not have
sick people in the first place. Make sure they're not
eating things that kill them. That's it, so like like
it's it's a very simple correlation. If you don't put
crap in your body, you're gonna have lower cost for
health care. And we allow poison literally like petrochemicals into cheetos,
And I'm not picking on cheetahs. We do it in
all other things. But like the idea of being like, no,
(27:12):
how about we just don't do.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
That, I mean, you're not gonna get an argument for me.
But there are a lot of questions we don't ask,
like what is the proper size and role of government?
What is the role and responsibility of the self government?
Do we even believe in self governing anymore? Do we
really believe in limited government anymore? All these all these
questions have to be answered before we can get to
the problem. They're bigger than the problems we're trying to solve,
(27:36):
and we don't honestly address the problems we're trying to
solve because of them. But bottom line is, healthcare is
rising and expected to rise another seven percent. So whatever
little relief you're getting from inflation going down, it's about
to get sucked up by healthcare.
Speaker 6 (27:50):
That's take a vacation and a blood test.
Speaker 1 (27:53):
But MI can weasel a trip to I don't want
to go to Mexico though Portugal.
Speaker 6 (27:58):
Portugal is great healthcare and it's cheap, and if you're
on the East coast, it's pretty quick. You know, I'm joking, man,
I'm not.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Do they have the nitrous ox side there?
Speaker 4 (28:06):
Nah?
Speaker 6 (28:06):
I get of course they do.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Aaron Rayel appreciate your reporting. We'll talk again tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (28:13):
I'm a Lando now in Smyrna, Tennessee, and my morning show,
it's your morning show, Mike good Deal. Journal Joining us
from Miami is Rory O'Neil Rory. This kind of became
as much of a tornadic event as it was a
hurricane event.
Speaker 7 (28:30):
Yeah, and we're still trying to assess exactly what the
heck happened overnight. Governor DeSantis just wrapping up her press
conference or in the process of wrapping it up, and
damage assessments are going to get underway. But right now
we're still in search and rescue mode. A lot of
high water rescues are still happening as we speak, in
places like clearwater in Saint Petersburg. You know, there's a
(28:51):
time when first responders police fire can't go out there
because the winds are too strong with the flood water
is too deep. But I think it was about four
five hour window there where even police couldn't do much
to help. But they started resuming operations around one two
o'clock this morning Eastern time, and they are continuing as
they try to reach people who were calling for help overnight.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
Well, I guess you could say the roof. The roof
is open at.
Speaker 7 (29:15):
Tropicana, right, Yeah, it's retractable now. So yeah, Tropic Caana
Field took a big hit, as we all could see
by some pretty amazing video. It's oddly funny that just
a couple months ago they got a deal for a
brand new stadium to replace that venue that is probably
the least popular in all of Major League Baseball, so
(29:37):
it's a welcome change. So I don't think a lot
of people were crying when they saw the roof go.
But now the question is how much do you spend
on fixing it when you've already got plans for a
new one.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Well, I was gonna I don't want to make jokes
during a hurricane, but if they were sad about anything,
it was that the rest of the stadium was still there.
That's how bad they would like it to disappear. The tornadoes.
I have a friend, Vincent. He lives in St. Lucy County,
and at one point they had four tornadoes and thirty
minutes on the ground at the same time. Katrina, I
think we didn't document it very well at all. And
(30:09):
I told my anecdotal story about in my neighborhood. I'm
driving around and I'm going, this isn't hurricane, this is tornado.
I mean it was a clear tornadic plant path and
a signature destruction. Some have more tornadoes than others. This
one did a.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
Lot more and a lot more powerful tornadoes. Typically we
see these quick little ones spin up and then they
go away. Maybe they knock down a tree, limb, or
a mailbox. In this case, they looked like more of
the Oklahoma style tornado, massive wedge tornadoes that picked up
cars tossed them around. There's a fascinating video that shows
(30:43):
a construction dumpster, you know, one of those long ones.
The dumpster was on the roof of a two story home.
We're in the roof of that two story home. So
pretty remarkable how things got picked up and tossed around.
There was a ten thousand square foot building operated by
the Sheriff's office actually where they parked vehicles to protect
them from the weather. It got taken down by that
(31:04):
tornado as well. So a lot to still assess there.
We know there are multiple fatalities, but again we barely
got the sun up, and they really are just going
to get the heart of trying to assess exactly what happened.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
I remember a couple of years after nine to eleven
and a lot of people wonder worse God in days
like that, and a rabbi i happened to be in
an event, gave a speech and he telled a bunch
of stories to kind of point to where God was
when bad things happen. This could have been worse a five.
It made landfall as a three. The trajectory away from
the Tampa Bay. We actually had water leave the bay
(31:38):
rather than flood. Could have been so much worse. We
got three point two million without power that need to
be restored. And really the kind of fatalities that we're
talking about are tornatic related more so than even hurricanes.
This could have been worse, but it's going to be expensive.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
And you'll see God today, Yes, and all.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
The people and what they're doing and search and recovery
and repair. All right, this will go out into the
ocean probably by noonish today, right, and then dissipate.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
They're really it's already gone.
Speaker 7 (32:10):
I mean a couple of squalls here and there, but
essentially the bulk of it has moved off the Daytona coast,
so it's going to continue outwards into the Atlantic and
then just fall apart.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
With the colder water. Great reporting, Rory. We'll talk again tomorrow.
Thank you, Thanks Michael. All right, final say, I wanted
to get this in. I know it's on everybody's mind
who's going to win. And I want to be that
quiet confidence that tellis you, no matter who wins, we're
going to be fine. Or you have a much bigger
view of the presidency than perhaps.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
You should.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
But what makes us interesting when we look at the
latest polling numbers, and I don't have time to do
all of them, but we have all October ninth polling,
Arizona is forty nine to forty seven point six Trump,
Nevada forty seven and a half, Trump forty eight point six,
Kamala Wisconsin forty eight point two Trump forty eight point seven,
Kamala half a point, half, a point point and a half.
(33:05):
Nothing is more than a two point lead with all
of the swing states, and that includes Georgia, North Carolina,
and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. Here's what has
the Democrats so worried and nervous. And here's what if
you're looking for Donald Trump to win, should give you
some encouragement. Keep in mind Hillary led by six point
three in twenty sixteen in Wisconsin, Biden led by five
(33:28):
and a half. Biden led by five and a half
but only went on to win by point six in
twenty twenty, and Hillary led by six and a half
and went on to lose. And I could do numbers
like that for Arizona, Nevada, especially Michigan and Pennsylvania. And
that's what's got them so nervous, and what causes that.
(33:50):
You're within the margin of error and the underpolling of
Donald Trump. So he may even look like he's down
a half a point or a point, but he's really
up by three. That's why they're That's why none of
us know what's going to happen.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
We're all in this together.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
This is your Morning Show with Michael Vindel, Joiner,
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