Hamas cease-fire, and if any hostage releases, is very reminiscent of the 1981 Reagan entrance. Is this a historic Trump moment coming? What about Panama? Canada?? Or the Gulf of America??? We discuss all of this with Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Previously on Your Morning Show with Michael dil Jo.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
James Carafano's lieutenant Colonel, I consider one of the finest
military and foreign policy minds in the world today resides
at the Heritage Foundation, and he joins us this morning.
Great to have you back, Lieutenant Colonel. That's the president
trying to rewrite the last four years of history. How
accurate is it.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
I don't know who the speech writer is, but they
do better jokes than Saturday Night Live.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
It did sound a correspondence stand up. Yeah. Oh, come on, man,
I mean they're not going to be out of work, man.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
They They've got a place to go and a job
to do. I mean, come on, you're noting the you
know what he said? No, no, seriously, it is true
that all of our enemies are weaker. Russia military capability
is significantly degraded. I mean Putin has lost significant ground
(00:54):
in a lot of areas, not just in Ukraine. Iron
is definitely weaker. Their their circuits have been decimated. Chinese
economy has kind of sputtered here, and you know, China's
popularity is nerved lower. None of this has to do
with the things that Joe Biden intention These are all
(01:18):
the results of Biden's weakness and all these guys overreaching
and making stupid decisions that this you know.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
What this is like. This is like you know, round.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Two of the the the Ali Fight where replaces Ropado
and he gets punched to death. Biden's for Biden's been
a punching back for four years. If our enemies are
are are having trouble, it's because of their stupid decisions,
not not anything good that he did well.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
Yeah, and true and true leadership.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Leadership projects strength so that wars don't happen. The withdrawal
of Afghanistan. I don't think history is going to be
kind to this presidency at all. I think the handling
prior to Russia's invasion history won't be kind to but
kind of you know, I like to reiterate this to
people because I'm not en us versus them. Guy, I
want to see us stop being Republicans and Democrats and
(02:10):
start being Americans. And I'm all for this new rebirthing
and restoration where the people take control of the government
again and elect wise proven leaders, not politicians. But you're
not Republican or Democrat. We've often talked about how dangerous
the Obama foreign policy was, how surprisingly good Donald Trump's
foreign policy was. How will the Biden administration be remembered
(02:34):
in terms of foreign policy.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
So here's what was not in the speech.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
The untold suffering in the world that resulted from Biden's
deliberate actions.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
In Afghanistan.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Today women cannot even talk to other women, or be
or have be or see daylight outside where another uman
being concealed them. They they have the least rights and
the most depression of any people on Earth. There's only
one person responsible for that, and that is Joe Biden.
In Israel, we had people massacred at a at a
(03:11):
at a music festival because because they thought because people
thought they could get away with it because Biden is
so We've had we have shipping in the Red Sea
blocked by a terrorist group, which Biden took off the
terrorists lips. We have people in Ukraine who are suffering
and freezing through the winter because nobody was afraid of
(03:31):
Biden when they attacked these wars. We had untold human
suffering at the border because of the incredible abuses of
illegal human trafficking. All of this is directly the responsibility
of Joe Biden.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
So, yeah, our enemies are weaker, But you.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Know how Biden accomplished that by allowing them to inflict unbelievably.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
And unprecedented human suffering on people, things.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
That never even came close to happening with Donald Trump
was President of the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
James Carafinals, Lieutenant currently presides over the Heritage Foundation's team
of military and foreign policy advisors.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
I mean, this is the perfect transition right to what
you're talking about, because we're kind of reliving history almost
fifty years later. Ronald Reagan, everybody knew was piece through strength,
very strong, it was respected, it was anticipated. Jimmy Carter
was perceived as meddling, very weak, and we had a
Hostgese crisis, and the hostages were released as Ronald Reagan's
(04:32):
taking the oath of office. Now that Donald Trump has
made a crystal clear if these hostages aren't released by
the time I take the oath of office, all hell.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
Is going to break loose.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Guess what we seem to be on the precipice of
not just a ceasefire, but three dozen hostages being released
if they're alive.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
This is a Reagan moment, is it not? Well?
Speaker 3 (04:49):
You know, there's a perfect analogy action between Carter and
Reagan and Biden and Trump. Part of the reason why
Reagan was so successful was because our enemies overreached so
aggressively under Carter that they you stretcher over means so
tight and it steps back. They were so aggressive and
(05:11):
overreaching under Carter that when Reagan pushed back, he was
he was pushing back against an enemy that it exceeded
it's it's reach. And I think that's also true for
what we see with Trump and byen You know, I
do want to caution one thing about when they say,
you know.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Getting hostages back.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
When I talked to very senior Israeli officials many months
ago at the time they thought best case scenario they
get back thirty live hostages.
Speaker 4 (05:43):
I mean that that.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
Was almost a year ago. Now I'm not thinking. I mean,
I hope I'm wrong. I don't think we're gonna see
dozens of live hostages come out. I mean some of
the reason when they're saying returning hostages, I think they're
more about talking about re turing bodies, not like people.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Right, all right, so we've had this conversation in the past.
But for those that can't listen to every moment we
ever do. We've talked about this dance.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
What's your problem? That's right, But we talk about this
dance that that that the Islamis play.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
They get emboldened, they carry out a terrorist attack, they
get beat up, they take hostages so they can exchange
the hostages and end it. Then they go lay low
for a decade and they do it all over again.
This time it kind of drug out and and I
think I brought it up to you and then we
talked about it on the air, and that is I
don't think they have their exit plan because I think
they've killed the hostages, and so I guess we're going
(06:36):
to find out now. And I like you and praying
we're wrong. And there are three dozen, but I think
you're probably right. It's going to be more remains than
it is living hostages, and probably far less than most
of the world thinks.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yeah, there's a because terrorism as a as a threat
to US is definitely back on the table with open
borders and everything else. And I think there's a lesson
learned here about global terrorism and something I think we
got wrong in the war on terrorism before. And people
continue to get wrong is the threat. I'm not terrorists,
(07:12):
because they're terrorists all over the place and everything. But
the global terrorism, the idea to export terrorism and to
use terrorism part of kind of the larger that is
a that is as a threat, the product of the
EBB and flow of geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
It is not about root causes and.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Dealing with the underlying conditions. And that's not what causes
global terrorism. Global terrorism thrives or receive because of the
nature of global politics. And that's why I know if
I told you the story before, but after nine to eleven,
somebody asked me one day, is how many how many
islam As terrorist attacks we had the United States since
(07:53):
nine to eleven? And I thought, well, that's a pretty
obvious thing, because you know, I track that stuff every day.
And I realized people didn't do that. So we started
taking count on a terrorist plots, not successful terrorist attacks,
but terrorist plots aimed at the United States. Islamist terror
spots posted nine eleven, and we had this robust database
and we ran up until Trump got elected and then
we stopped. And the reason we stopped is there just
(08:15):
weren't any Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:18):
So.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Weakness, But James, is that something new weakness always emboldens
an aggressor.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Right, because I was going to say, is you know,
if people actually are paying attention. We've actually had several
Islamist terrorist spots aimed at the United States, not just
New Orleans and Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
But some of the mostlim weren't successful, which is why
we kind of ignored this.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
But we've had an enormously resurgent threat and and I
would say a good chunk of that threat is to
two things. One is the incredible weakness of the administration.
We could beat this thing that you know, total complete,
absolute death. The other is our enemies because our where
(09:00):
our enemies have overreached in hard power, they're still aggressive
and they still want to take down the United States.
So increasingly what they will do is to turn to
alternatives to do that. We've always had state sponsored terrorism,
either directly or indirectly, but it thrives in times when
our enemies see that as a useful instrument that come
(09:21):
against us. So when their hard power is strained, they're
going to turn to this. And if we don't close
off those avenues, which is you know, we'll see more
of that. So again, this is where Trump is so important.
It's not just a back off China and Russian or
on as direct threats, but also cutting off the avenues
of indirect threats.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Final minute with Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano Christmas New Year's
a lot of out of country travel for you. Some
things that built up in one minute, from the Panama
Canal to Greenland, to Canada, to the Gulf of America,
all of these other things that have come up with
the rice of a second term of Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
How important is some of this stuff? Yeah, and that's
the way to look at it.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
And it's not at any specific policy thing or and
he said, but it's the overall message, which is, after
multiple years of weakness, we have allowed the Chinese and Russians,
Iranians to really penetrate our own home.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Ground and that has to stop. And all of this.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
Is is a signal that the Monroe doctor is back.
Enemies coming into this theater and messing with us in
our own backyard.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
We're not going to tolerate that.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
The difference, I would say between the Monroe Doctrine, which
was largely the United States kind of exercising this is
the new Monroe Doctrine is not going to be the
United States kind of telling everybody in the Western hemisphere,
it's we're going to be working with partners in the
Western hemisphere to kick these.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Guys out because it rights to all.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Of us and Trump and all Trump is saying is, look,
I'm going to be serious about that. And I think
people should see that as a really positive, constructive thing
because it's an element of our national security and foreign
policy which has been absolutely one thousand percent neglected the.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Last four years.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Wonderful, finally, a happy new year. You're back, Lieutenant Colonel
James Carafinal. Read his great work and his colleagues great
work at Heritage Dowd or we'll talk against him.
Speaker 4 (11:18):
Thank you, Lieutenant colonel.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Miss a little, miss a lot, miss a lot, and
we'll miss you. It's your morning show with Michael del Churno.
Previously on Your Morning Show with Michael dil Jo.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
James Carafano's lieutenant Colonel, I consider one of the finest
military and foreign policy minds in the world today resides
at the Heritage Foundation, and he joins us this morning.
Great to have you back, Lieutenant Colonel. That's the president
trying to rewrite the last four years of history. How
accurate is it.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
I don't know who the speech writer is, but they
do better jokes than Saturday Night Live.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
It did sound a correspondence stand up. Yeah. Oh, come on, man,
I mean they're not going to be out of work, man.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
They They've got a place to go and a job
to do. I mean, come on, you're noting the you
know what he said? No, no, seriously, it is true
that all of our enemies are weaker. Russia military capability
is significantly degraded. I mean Putin has lost significant ground
(00:54):
in a lot of areas, not just in Ukraine. Iron
is definitely weaker. Their their circuits have been decimated. Chinese
economy has kind of sputtered here, and you know, China's
popularity is nerved lower. None of this has to do
with the things that Joe Biden intention These are all
(01:18):
the results of Biden's weakness and all these guys overreaching
and making stupid decisions that this you know.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
What this is like. This is like you know, round.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Two of the the the Ali Fight where replaces Ropado
and he gets punched to death. Biden's for Biden's been
a punching back for four years. If our enemies are
are are having trouble, it's because of their stupid decisions,
not not anything good that he did well.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
Yeah, and true and true leadership.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Leadership projects strength so that wars don't happen. The withdrawal
of Afghanistan. I don't think history is going to be
kind to this presidency at all. I think the handling
prior to Russia's invasion history won't be kind to but
kind of you know, I like to reiterate this to
people because I'm not en us versus them. Guy, I
want to see us stop being Republicans and Democrats and
(02:10):
start being Americans. And I'm all for this new rebirthing
and restoration where the people take control of the government
again and elect wise proven leaders, not politicians. But you're
not Republican or Democrat. We've often talked about how dangerous
the Obama foreign policy was, how surprisingly good Donald Trump's
foreign policy was. How will the Biden administration be remembered
(02:34):
in terms of foreign policy.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
So here's what was not in the speech.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
The untold suffering in the world that resulted from Biden's
deliberate actions.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
In Afghanistan.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Today women cannot even talk to other women, or be
or have be or see daylight outside where another uman
being concealed them. They they have the least rights and
the most depression of any people on Earth. There's only
one person responsible for that, and that is Joe Biden.
In Israel, we had people massacred at a at a
(03:11):
at a music festival because because they thought because people
thought they could get away with it because Biden is
so We've had we have shipping in the Red Sea
blocked by a terrorist group, which Biden took off the
terrorists lips. We have people in Ukraine who are suffering
and freezing through the winter because nobody was afraid of
(03:31):
Biden when they attacked these wars. We had untold human
suffering at the border because of the incredible abuses of
illegal human trafficking. All of this is directly the responsibility
of Joe Biden.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
So, yeah, our enemies are weaker, But you.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Know how Biden accomplished that by allowing them to inflict unbelievably.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
And unprecedented human suffering on people, things.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
That never even came close to happening with Donald Trump
was President of the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
James Carafinals, Lieutenant currently presides over the Heritage Foundation's team
of military and foreign policy advisors.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
I mean, this is the perfect transition right to what
you're talking about, because we're kind of reliving history almost
fifty years later. Ronald Reagan, everybody knew was piece through strength,
very strong, it was respected, it was anticipated. Jimmy Carter
was perceived as meddling, very weak, and we had a
Hostgese crisis, and the hostages were released as Ronald Reagan's
(04:32):
taking the oath of office. Now that Donald Trump has
made a crystal clear if these hostages aren't released by
the time I take the oath of office, all hell.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
Is going to break loose.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Guess what we seem to be on the precipice of
not just a ceasefire, but three dozen hostages being released
if they're alive.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
This is a Reagan moment, is it not? Well?
Speaker 3 (04:49):
You know, there's a perfect analogy action between Carter and
Reagan and Biden and Trump. Part of the reason why
Reagan was so successful was because our enemies overreached so
aggressively under Carter that they you stretcher over means so
tight and it steps back. They were so aggressive and
(05:11):
overreaching under Carter that when Reagan pushed back, he was
he was pushing back against an enemy that it exceeded
it's it's reach. And I think that's also true for
what we see with Trump and byen You know, I
do want to caution one thing about when they say,
you know.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Getting hostages back.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
When I talked to very senior Israeli officials many months
ago at the time they thought best case scenario they
get back thirty live hostages.
Speaker 4 (05:43):
I mean that that.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
Was almost a year ago. Now I'm not thinking. I mean,
I hope I'm wrong. I don't think we're gonna see
dozens of live hostages come out. I mean some of
the reason when they're saying returning hostages, I think they're
more about talking about re turing bodies, not like people.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Right, all right, so we've had this conversation in the past.
But for those that can't listen to every moment we
ever do. We've talked about this dance.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
What's your problem? That's right, But we talk about this
dance that that that the Islamis play.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
They get emboldened, they carry out a terrorist attack, they
get beat up, they take hostages so they can exchange
the hostages and end it. Then they go lay low
for a decade and they do it all over again.
This time it kind of drug out and and I
think I brought it up to you and then we
talked about it on the air, and that is I
don't think they have their exit plan because I think
they've killed the hostages, and so I guess we're going
(06:36):
to find out now. And I like you and praying
we're wrong. And there are three dozen, but I think
you're probably right. It's going to be more remains than
it is living hostages, and probably far less than most
of the world thinks.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yeah, there's a because terrorism as a as a threat
to US is definitely back on the table with open
borders and everything else. And I think there's a lesson
learned here about global terrorism and something I think we
got wrong in the war on terrorism before. And people
continue to get wrong is the threat. I'm not terrorists,
(07:12):
because they're terrorists all over the place and everything. But
the global terrorism, the idea to export terrorism and to
use terrorism part of kind of the larger that is
a that is as a threat, the product of the
EBB and flow of geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
It is not about root causes and.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Dealing with the underlying conditions. And that's not what causes
global terrorism. Global terrorism thrives or receive because of the
nature of global politics. And that's why I know if
I told you the story before, but after nine to eleven,
somebody asked me one day, is how many how many
islam As terrorist attacks we had the United States since
(07:53):
nine to eleven? And I thought, well, that's a pretty
obvious thing, because you know, I track that stuff every day.
And I realized people didn't do that. So we started
taking count on a terrorist plots, not successful terrorist attacks,
but terrorist plots aimed at the United States. Islamist terror
spots posted nine eleven, and we had this robust database
and we ran up until Trump got elected and then
we stopped. And the reason we stopped is there just
(08:15):
weren't any Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:18):
So.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Weakness, But James, is that something new weakness always emboldens
an aggressor.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Right, because I was going to say, is you know,
if people actually are paying attention. We've actually had several
Islamist terrorist spots aimed at the United States, not just
New Orleans and Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
But some of the mostlim weren't successful, which is why
we kind of ignored this.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
But we've had an enormously resurgent threat and and I
would say a good chunk of that threat is to
two things. One is the incredible weakness of the administration.
We could beat this thing that you know, total complete,
absolute death. The other is our enemies because our where
(09:00):
our enemies have overreached in hard power, they're still aggressive
and they still want to take down the United States.
So increasingly what they will do is to turn to
alternatives to do that. We've always had state sponsored terrorism,
either directly or indirectly, but it thrives in times when
our enemies see that as a useful instrument that come
(09:21):
against us. So when their hard power is strained, they're
going to turn to this. And if we don't close
off those avenues, which is you know, we'll see more
of that. So again, this is where Trump is so important.
It's not just a back off China and Russian or
on as direct threats, but also cutting off the avenues
of indirect threats.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Final minute with Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano Christmas New Year's
a lot of out of country travel for you. Some
things that built up in one minute, from the Panama
Canal to Greenland, to Canada, to the Gulf of America,
all of these other things that have come up with
the rice of a second term of Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
How important is some of this stuff? Yeah, and that's
the way to look at it.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
And it's not at any specific policy thing or and
he said, but it's the overall message, which is, after
multiple years of weakness, we have allowed the Chinese and Russians,
Iranians to really penetrate our own home.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Ground and that has to stop. And all of this.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
Is is a signal that the Monroe doctor is back.
Enemies coming into this theater and messing with us in
our own backyard.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
We're not going to tolerate that.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
The difference, I would say between the Monroe Doctrine, which
was largely the United States kind of exercising this is
the new Monroe Doctrine is not going to be the
United States kind of telling everybody in the Western hemisphere,
it's we're going to be working with partners in the
Western hemisphere to kick these.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Guys out because it rights to all.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Of us and Trump and all Trump is saying is, look,
I'm going to be serious about that. And I think
people should see that as a really positive, constructive thing
because it's an element of our national security and foreign
policy which has been absolutely one thousand percent neglected the.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Last four years.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Wonderful, finally, a happy new year. You're back, Lieutenant Colonel
James Carafinal. Read his great work and his colleagues great
work at Heritage Dowd or we'll talk against him.
Speaker 4 (11:18):
Thank you, Lieutenant colonel.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Miss a little, miss a lot, miss a lot, and
we'll miss you. It's your morning show with Michael del Churno.
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