July 31, 2025 • 35 mins
The Fed holds rated again, why? Where should the rates be? What should drive the decision?? We ask economist David Bahnsen.
The Fed holds the interest rates again. When will the Federal Reserve drop interest rates? What about the surprise pop in the GDP? National Correspondent RORY O’NEILL has the latest on these key economic indicators.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, it's me Michael. Your morning show can be heard
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(00:24):
A new way of talk, a new way of understanding,
because we're in this together. This is your morning show
with Michael O'Dell Chorny telling you if I'm talking to
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the same accent. And Mike MCCANNN I can't stop. It's
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(00:47):
to beat him. Thank you, Mike McCann. Seven minutes after
the hour, Rise and shine, one and all, and welcome
to Can you believe it's Thursday? Can you believe it's
the last day of July? Oh? How much longer before
we'll be hearing Chris music? Football? And then football kicks
off tonight, the first preseason game that goods an Alliance.
(01:11):
All is well if you're just waking up eight minutes
after the hour, A former senior advisor to President Biden's
scheduled to testify before the GOP and their probe into
Biden's mental fitness in office. You know the fake presidency.
Most have led the fifth claim, didn't what about this advisor?
Time will tell. Also, President Trump says is very hard
(01:32):
to make a trade deal with Canada now now that
it's prime minister has announced plans to recognize the Palestinian state.
And the gunman who shot and killed four people in
Manhattan may have gotten his gun. It looks like he
bought it from his supervisor in Las Vegas. And you
know what the big story is, Kamala Harris is not
running for governor and the Fed left interest rates alone.
(01:56):
David Bonnson is with the Boson Financial Group. He also
presides over the Dividend Cafe. He is my money whiz
and economist. David. Everybody's going to be turning you to
you today and asking the question, why didn't they lower
the rate or were they right and holding it?
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Well, they were not right and holding it.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
And I believed for some time that the Fed is
unnecessarily restrictive and tight, and.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
That it is doing damage.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
It was a one hundred percent chance that they weren't
going to cut the raid. It's been known for at
least a month. There was absolutely no chance they were
going to be cutting yesterday.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
So it was not a surprise. It wasn't news. The
President certainly knew that was coming.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
And what the market seemed to be indicating is that
they are going to start their cuts in September. That's
what the President came away from his meeting with SHERMYN.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Powell last week saying. And the real question that is
sort of unknown.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
It was not about yesterday and is not really in
about September.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
It's more just by the end of the year. Are
they going to have cut.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Two times one time?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Are they going to cut half a point or quarter
point in September.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
There's some questions about the magnitude, but that they are
waiting a little bit but then planning to cut, that's
all pretty well baked in the cave, all.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
Right, So walk us through the indicators. I know, like
the GDP it was forecast to two, the actual ended
up being three. Inflation rate looked about the same confidence
numbers real quickly.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
It was not forecast at two. It was adjusted. This
is a weird thing. The forecast was adjusted to two
after the PC defleet and deflator the inflation indicator came in.
So what was a two and a half forecast became
a two forecast, and then the real number came in
at three. So we're sitting right now because the first
(03:55):
quarter was at a negative half and now this quarter
came in three. So we're sitting on the year annualized. Okay,
this is not quarter by quarter. Each quarter's numbers are annualized,
so we don't have to multiply them by four, and
we're sitting.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
At one and a quarter real growth annualized year to date.
But nothing happened in the.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
First quarter or second quarter other than that the imports
skyrocketed in the first quarter as people front ran tariffs right,
and then that reversed, and then that reversed in the
second quarter. So there was four point nine percent subtraction
from GDP from net exports in the first quarter, and
(04:42):
there was four point seven percent addition to GDP in
the second quarter. So the inventories and the trade numbers
just basically offset each other.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
From Q one and Q two. But in terms of
the things.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
That people actually care about, like production and non residential
fixed investment which is a fancy word for business investment,
those things were they were pretty low. They were pretty low,
but they were positive though.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
All Right, So when people are like us just following
this and we're not experts like you, what indicators do
you look at? And then that when you look at those,
you go, Okay, it's time to lower the rates. And
then what indicators are they looking at and are they
the same?
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Well, first of all, I don't think the GDP number
has anything to do with it. But because the FED
believes and the society is asked the FED to believe
that their job is to fix the economy. If GDP
were very very low, if we were a recession, then
usually the Fed is cutting rates.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
That's one of the things.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Michael, that is just so absolutely comically incoherent about what
President Trump is saying is in the same speech he
will say we are the best economy in the world.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
We're doing great.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Everyone agrees, why don't we cut rates to one?
Speaker 1 (06:05):
When you cut rates.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
To one, because your economy's falling off a cliff, and
so I'm not sure that the president understands that. I
know he obviously is a leveraged real estate investor. I
totally understand why he loves low rates. So when you
ask me, when you ask me what I would do,
I just simply believe that I would be probably running
(06:29):
monetary policy around what I thought was best and not
what Congress had asked them to do. And that's not right.
What Congress has asked them to do is the problem,
which is this dual mandate of full employment and price
stability that are incoherent and are not really something that
(06:49):
I believe mere mortals can do. I think it's a
very complicated and dynamic economy.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
But if someone were just asking.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Me, what's the policy rate right now, where there's no
finger on the scale, they're not trying to tighten things
up because they believe things are moving too hot. Would
they consider inflationary, And they're not trying to speed things
up because they think things are going too slow, you know,
using a low interest rate to stimulate if it were
(07:16):
in between, if you're looking for policy neutrality, I would
guess at that rate right now is somewhere between two
and a half and three percent. So let's call it
right in the middle of what the FED is done
and what President Trump wants them to do.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
All right, so you agree that they should have been
cut and they have it. You're focused mainly on all right, now,
how much cutting and when by the end of the year,
And either way it doesn't like enough, does it.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Well again, there's a tool called forward guidance where they
affect monetary policy by telling the market what they're going
to be doing, and it has the effect of stimulating
because markets start to price in ahead of time where
it's going. But Sharon Power did answer one question yesterday
in the press conference very.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Well, which was people as some guy at Fox Business.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Asked him, what do you say to mortgage borrowers that
are having a hard time affording a home because of
high mortgage rates? He said, look, we don't really have
control over that. There's a little bit of sense in
which the short term rate affects it, but mortgage rates
are largely connected to the ten year, the thirty year
(08:26):
long term rates, and all we can affect is the
overnight rate that banks charge each other and the other
component to that, which I wish term and Power would say,
But of course it can't is this cuts both ways
right now? There are the high rates have made housing unaffordable,
but you know what really made housing unaffordable before that,
(08:46):
hyper hyper hyper low rates.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
They made all the prices go up.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
So when you start to manipulate prices up or down
with interest rates, you distort markets, You screw things up,
you do damage to real people, and it drives me bonkers.
It drives me bonkers. Essential banks want to do it,
It drives me bonkers. At the left wants to do it,
and then lately it drives me a little bit bonkers
that my friends on the right want them doing it.
(09:12):
Don't just leave it alone and let markets work for
Pete's sake.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
David Bonson you probably see him on Fox Business. He's
with the Bonson Financial Group. He also presides over the
Dividendcafe at Dividendcafe dot com. I do think it's worthy
of note, but I want to start for the first
time since nineteen ninety three, there were two descending votes.
But I want to come back to this whole concept.
And I hear it a lot from colleagues that are reporters.
(09:39):
You know, it's not all up to Powell. He's just
one of twelve votes. You know that kind of stuff.
Is that true?
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Because this is so stupid, It is just so stupid. Right,
of course, it's not true. There is a basically one
hundred year tradition that the governor's assent to what the
Chair mean is looking to do.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
You are allowed to dissent. It very rarely happens.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
It is for good reason that they desire to have
mostly consensus. Look in nineteen eighty six, there was one
vote where there was a total mutiny against Paul Volker
where Secretary Jim Jim Baker, James Baker, and I would
imagine President Reagan were very frustrated with Paul Volker, and
there were one vote where a majority went against Vulker,
(10:28):
and it caused a lot of disruption and Volker was
gone about a year later.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
That's now, and Greenspan came in.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
And yet this idea that like, well, all you just
need is the six to seven other governors to vote against.
They go in, they know it ever has happened to ever,
they discuss, and then they do believe in having some
form of consensus. That's why it's such a big deal
that even too dissented, because you generally get no dissent
at all.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Well, let me talk about it the way you know
when you know.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
You got descent once in twenty thirteen, you know who
the dissenter was dissenting against Ben Bernink.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
His name was J. Powell, nice dismount. All right, Well,
cutting the chance. There's a lot of people think this
has gotten personal, and the president, of course with a
hard hat on outing him over a billion and a
half dollar overage on a renovation project probably didn't help things.
But is it personal? You know, if they weren't having
this back and forth, would he have lowered the rates?
(11:25):
But I want to cut to this first time since
nineteen ninety three to descend against him, and I suspect
in September if he decides to hold the rate again
that number may grow. Are we heading towards one of
those upsetting kind of situations like you mentioned in the eighties. No,
we're not heading to that.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
They will end up going in ahead of time with
some consensus. I suspect that Pal has become very exhausted
by it, and he can have at this point, he
can have his cake and eat it too. He did
not want to signal to markets that he is giving
in to the bullying of the president. And now if
expectations are already that he's going to be cutting dead, yeah,
(12:09):
he can get the heat off of him and not
have it look like it was a capitulation both. So
I would be very surprised that there isn't more, uh
you know, kind of unanimous support of the policy decision
at the next FMC meeting.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
What can we look for tomorrow on the dividend cafe.
It is one of my favorites I've done in a
long time.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
I guess I say that a lot, and I'm not
usually so self congratulatory, but I did a very deep
dive into the objective way that we will be able
to look at all this tariff policy and trade policy
in six months in a year, instead of all the
political hacks that are right now celebrating and spiking the
football before deals are even done, or determining that everything
(12:51):
the President's done has been a failure before it's even done.
I'm looking at the objective ways that we can actually
look out in the future and.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Say, Okay, what was good, what was bad?
Speaker 1 (13:01):
How did this really go?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
And I promise you, as is always the case, there
will be something in it for everyone to get.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Up, because the left would have you believe we were
going to end up in a recession, the market was
going to crash doomsday in April, and it certainly didn't happen.
And now the deals are coming in. Now the right
is celebrating something that and already to divvy the money.
We're trying to figure out whether we're going to do
dividend checks back to the people, or pay down debt
(13:28):
or a little bit of ball that's like count your
chickens before they hatch. And now the left is coming
back with, Okay, we may have been wrong in April,
but you're wrong long term. This is still too early
to be celebrating. It's going to take somebody like you
to bust through the narrative on both ends and give
us a straight shot. Well, I know I'll be reading
Dividend Cafe dot com for David Bonson's weekly do we
(13:50):
call those blogs? What do we call those now? Report?
Market commentary, commentary, market commentary, my favorite David Bonnson. God
bless you, sir, great date, Thank you. This is your
morning show with Michael del Chno. Top five stories of
the day. We start with numero fulnol Well Brown University
(14:11):
is agreeing to a deal with the Trump administration that
restores federal research funding. Mark Mayfield has the details return.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
The Ivy League school will pay fifteen million dollars over
ten years to support workforce development in Rhode Island. Defunds
were frozen earlier this year over allegations it failed to
address anti semitism and use discriminatory admissions practices. As part
of the deal, the school agreed to follow federal rules
on sex and gender and increase support for Jewish students
and Israel related programs. Similar deals have been reached at
(14:39):
Columbia and Harvard.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I'm Mark Mayfew and UCLA six million dollars, two million
of which must be donated to combat anti semitism on campus.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is not running for governor
in California.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
In a statement, Harris says she gave serious thought to
making a run, but ultimately decided to not enter the race.
Harras said for now, her leadershi up in public service
will not be an elected office. The former Vice president
says she's looking forward to helping elect Democrats across the country.
Parra said she'll share more details about her plans in
the next few months. This comes as speculation remains regarding
the former presidential candidate possibly running for the White House again.
(15:15):
In twenty twenty eight, I'm Tammy trheo that.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Colorado Dennis accused of slowly poisoning his wife to death,
was found guilty.
Speaker 6 (15:22):
It took the jury less than twenty four hours to
decide the fate of James Craig, who was arrested in
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
PA jury unanimously and not a reasonable doubt find the defendant,
James Craig, guilty of murder in the first rate.
Speaker 6 (15:37):
Investigators in Arora say Craig killed his wife Angela by
poisoning her protein shakes with a deadly mixture of cyanide
and other drugs.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
I'm Brian shuk Hahn. Just like that, everything feels right
in the world. Football Tonight from Canton, Ohio Chargers Lions
Hall of Fame game NBC Baseball Tiger's Pound of the
DBAC seven to two, Guardian shut out the Rockies, Cards
lost two nothing to the Marlins. Rays lost five four
to the Yankees. That's two in a row. Dodgers fell
five to two and Sinci to the Reds. Bruce Cruse
(16:07):
slapped around by the Cubs, but they did take two
out of three in that series. Angels lost sixty three
to the Rangers. Padre shut out the Mets five nothing.
A's one five to four over the Mariners. Birthdays Today,
Where would you be without JK. Rowling? No, Habry Palta
the author is sixty years old. Today, Country singer Zach
Brown forty seven from Modern Family. Rico Rodriguez is twenty seven.
(16:30):
And if it's your birthday, Happy birthday. Yo. Hi everybody,
This is Dion the Wanderer.
Speaker 7 (16:39):
My morning show is your Morning Show with Michael del Jorderno.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Hey, it's Michael. Your Morning show can be heard live
each weekday morning on great stations like thirteen sixty The
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and one four nine The Patriot and Saint Louis, Missouri.
Would love to be a part of your morning routine.
But so glad you're here now. Enjoy the podcast. By
the way, tomorrow it's Friday with forty seven. Did I
(17:12):
mention Michael McDonald of the Doobie Brothers next week. That'll
be fine. Oh look at the look on your faith. Hey,
I know people that know people all right. If you
miss any of your morning show, I'm thinking, in particular
David Bonson just breaking down the politics of the Fed
and what the interest rate should be and will eventually be,
(17:33):
and the politics in between. That interview David Zenati breaking
down elections are not about the millions. It comes down
to handfuls and where, and then our early conversation about
all these things that we know happened. You know, the Russia, Russia,
Russia is coming to light. Will January sixth have a
(17:54):
new light? Will COVID have a new light? Will a
fake presidency for four years have a new like? Careful
what you ask for? There is something about kind of
knowing it and then it being proven and how that
impacts us because trust is gained in drops but lost
in buckets. Listen, you missed any of these conversations, We
(18:16):
get it. Life's busy. Things happen, and that's why we
just want to be wherever you are, whenever you are.
Some of you are hearing me live right now in
your home or in your car. Some are listening to
a podcast. Some of you are listening to a podcast
right now and this is a month ago. I don't know.
That's just the nature in which we live. But if
you miss a little, you can miss a lot, and
you don't have to miss it. That's why we have
the podcast. It'll be up in about an hour and
(18:38):
a half from right now, and if you miss something,
you can always catch up later on. And you can
find links to the podcast on your iHeartRadio app or
on our website, your Morning Show online dot com. Well,
back to the Fed holding interest rates. We knew that
was coming, signaling rate cuts are coming. I don't know.
Royo O'Neil, our national correspondent, is here, kind of had
(19:01):
I think David Bonson nailed that. He kind of had
his cake and eat it too. He got despite Trump
and not cave and still signal to the market what's coming.
What did you make of yesterday's predictable holding of the rate?
Speaker 8 (19:14):
Yeah, and President Trump still gets his foil right. I mean,
there's nothing he loves more than to rail to get
someone like this, and he still now has that in
Chairman Powell as he ponders who will replace him sometime
next year.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
But yes.
Speaker 8 (19:27):
The Chairman essentially is saying that they're reaching their goals
of getting inflation down to target levels. Unemployment remains near
historic lows, which is encouraging, But they don't know what's
going to happen with these tariffs, many of which go
into effect tomorrow, and there's a little uncertainty there and
that's why they're just going to hold things now. There
(19:47):
are three more FED meetings this year. Some think that
we might see two more rate cuts. I think everyone agrees, though,
we'll be at least one of a quarter point.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
So it's a bit of a wait and see, and
the market's reacting to what they perceive and are building
in as a cut. What I guess there is still
uncertainty is how much of a cut would it be
a quarter, would it be a half? Will it be
as you mentioned one, two or three cuts before the
end of the year. Cuts are coming, but that uncertainty
is still there as to what they'll be, and everybody
(20:18):
has their own opinion. I don't think the president's or
don't think interest they should at zero, don't think they
should be at one, but a lot of people think
they should be somewhere between two and a half and three,
so you know, you could get there by the end
of the year. But time will tell. There's no question
the battle between Trump and Powell have played politics, and
(20:40):
I think you know there's a lot of I haven't
heard you do it, so I'm not accusing you. But
a lot of people always talk about well, remember he
doesn't have the only vote, He's just one of twelve vote. Well, no,
they all follow his lead. Only this time, for the
first time since nineteen ninety three, two descended. And if
he tries to pull any shanganigans and hold off in September,
I think you'll see more than two. So I think
(21:01):
the clock is winding down on this whole political fight.
Speaker 8 (21:05):
And I do you know, and the tariff business, the
stuff going into effect tomorrow, but also how companies were
front loading their inventories. We saw that in the GDP
number that came out yesterday, beating expectations. You know, I
think we are still trying to go through a pretty
topsy turvy time and unringing that bell is so much harder.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
You know.
Speaker 8 (21:23):
We heard the President say, well, if inflation goes up,
just raise the rates back up again.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
It's harder the second time around.
Speaker 8 (21:29):
So I think that's the other caution that the chairman
Powell has like he's and then you know this is
we're talking about a six week difference, Like does it
really make that much of a difference, you know if that's.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
A two edged sword too, because that was my first
thought too. All Right, you're signally you're going to do
it next month. Why aren't you doing it now? Why not?
I mean I could do it either way, right, why
not now you're going to do it September. What that's
going to change in thirty one days other than my
birthday and my age and whether or not this year
remember that birthday and maybe send me a little something
from Florida. I don't know. Oh, I'm just riffing. I know,
(22:03):
I know you do. It'll be the same thing I
got last year, and like it. What I'm gonna get
you two of them? I guess that sleepover is still
out of the question or great reporting as always, We'll
talk again tomorrow. Guess what time it is. On the consequence, it's.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
The best way to get back on your page, to
get up.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
I've been living rent free in that guy's head for
years and that's just a bull. They're just blowing off Steve.
You know, maybe I do have tourettes. Every time I
hear that Kennedy quote. I have to do that. You
gotta try harder not to suck. Well, yeah, you like
to mimic what you hear? What it is? That's an
add thing right away, we're back to the Mike mccannlin.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
I do that too. I mean I when I hear
things on TV, I like to mimic it. Know. The
more I fall in love with you, the more I
realize it's because you're like me. Well, it's scary, isn't it.
Here's how the announcement went yesterday. Just disappoint of record.
Speaker 9 (22:58):
Good afternoon, My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on
achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable
prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite heightened uncertainty,
the economy is still in a solid position. The unemployment
rate remains low, and the labor market is at or
(23:19):
near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal,
but has been running somewhat above our two percent longer
run objective.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
In support of our goals.
Speaker 9 (23:31):
Today, if our Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy,
interest rate unchanged, the risks of higher unemployment and higher
inflation appear to have risen, and we believe that the
current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to
respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
So there you have it, interest rates holding steady. He
later would go on to indicate that the rate cuts
are coming, but probably not for a month or so,
just as we would look you in the eye and
tell you. Anybody tells you this is a twelve person decision,
Come on, whatever the Fed chair says, they always do,
(24:11):
but not always. In fact, for the first time since
nineteen ninety three, two people on the committee voted in dissent.
So that tells me definitely cuts are coming in September.
All right. This popped up yesterday as the President turned
his attention towards Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 7 (24:30):
I like it conceptually, and you know, Nancy Pelosi became
rich by having inside information. She made a fortune with
her husband, and I think that's disgraceful.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
So in that sense, I'd like it, but.
Speaker 7 (24:43):
I'd have to really see the you know, I study
these things very carefully, and this just happened, So I'll
take a look at it, but conceptually I like it.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
And what I do.
Speaker 7 (24:52):
Think is Nancy Pelosi should be investigated because what she
has the highest return of anybody practic in the history
of Wall Street save a few.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Uh and how did that happen?
Speaker 7 (25:07):
It happen by she knows exactly what's going to happen,
what's going.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
To be announced, You buy stock, and then the stock goes.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Up after the announcements made, and she had to be investigated.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Now, there are all kinds of rumors that behind the
scenes Nancy Pelosi is not just wanting the President impeach. No,
she wants him in jail, and she plans to lead
the charge to go after him after he leaves office.
Uh So there is that back and forth, but staying
focused on topic and not playing shirts and skins, there
(25:36):
is no explanation for the success rate of her investment,
and she would certainly be privy to know things, as
the President mentioned, before they happen. By the way, she
knows things bad that are going to happen before they
happen too, So she knows when to buy and she
knows when to sell. And if they do any kind
(25:58):
of legislation to protect it has to include not just
members of Congress, but their immediate and maybe even extended family.
After all, Nancy Pelosi always hides behind. It's her husband
doing all of the investing. Well, it kind of was
a Joe Biden moment in the debate when Jake Tapper,
(26:25):
interviewing Nancy Pelosi, brought up Donald Trump and his comments
and a potential investigation and watch how she reacts.
Speaker 10 (26:36):
And Nancy Pelosi became rach, I might have to read
that we're here to talk about the sixtieth anniversary of Medicaid.
That's what I agreed to come to talk to.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Yeah, but I want that means.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
In the election.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
I wanted to give you a chances to respond. He
accused you of insider trading. What's your response to that?
That's very ridiculous.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
In fact, I very much support the stop the trading
of members of comes. Not that I think anybody's doing
thing wrong. If they are, they are prosecuted and they
go to jail. But because of the confidence it skills
in American people don't.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Worry about this.
Speaker 10 (27:10):
But I have no concern about the obvious investments that
had been made over time.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
No, she stuttered her way through that what I found
the most interesting out of the abundance of the heart,
the mouth speaks, well, that's not what I agreed to
come on. See, these Democrat politicians are used to the
media being in their back pocket, especially seeing it in
Jake Tapper. I mean Jake Tapper bigger than a giraffe,
(27:39):
the old expression you can fill in the blank. He
sells the lie that the right felt like Joe Biden's
cognitive abilities were depleted, and then he sells the book
revealing they hid his cognitive impairment. I mean, that's bigger
than a giraffe. But so she makes the comment at
(28:03):
the very beginning, which I thought is interesting, How dare
you bring this up? That's not what I came on
here to discuss. In other words, we play the narrative
game and you stick to the script. Very revealing. Also
revealing is that Tapper did it to her. It makes
you wonder that delicate balance because when this all comes out,
(28:25):
they've all lost trust, every one of these scandals. If
we do COVID, the media's at the center of it. Boy,
do I know the way I was treated January sixth,
They're at the center of it. Russia Russia. Russia, They're
at the center of it. Remember all these things the
government agencies did to betray a presidency and American voters
and the American people was sold to you by the media.
(28:51):
I mean, if we have one takeaway from today's show,
trust is built one drop at a time. It's lost
in buckets. Jack Tapper trying to do one drop at
a time, get a trust back, and don't you love
Nancy Pelosi's response, Nancy.
Speaker 10 (29:11):
I might have to read that we're here to talk
about the sixtieth anniversary of Medicaid. That's what I agreed
to come to talk.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Yeah, but I wanted that means in the election, I
wanted to give you a chances to respond. He accused
you of insider t I mean, just wow, Well, there
is a narrative that's in play, and the narrative in
April was Donald Trump and he's going to collapse the market.
He's going to destroy the economy. We're gonna head into
a recession. The sky is falling and he's making it
(29:41):
fall until it didn't. And watch how quick they shift
to well it's early to celebrate it still could listen.
Speaker 11 (29:50):
Well, I would just like to go but I'd like
to build a Galorean and go back to April when
everybody here was predicting.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Likely to cause a recession. It stops and a recession happens.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
They're not talking about a US recession, They're talking about
a global recession leads a recession vision.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Look at the host jameson what was happening in Apra
As they try to distance themselves from even doing that,
they quickly move on to their new narrative. But watch
the clip that proves what they were saying.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
A reception so palpable panic on Wall Street red numbers
and worries about something else that starts with an r recession.
Speaker 11 (30:28):
You called the recession. You took your shoe off on
Joe Talk you up again. You took your shoe off
you you took your shoe off, and you said there
was going to be a.
Speaker 12 (30:39):
Recessions economic circumstances have now been put in place. The
most Wall Street economists of senior note say, unlike he
took calls a recession.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Business editor, at least he doesn't back down to give
that's true. What will they just a second of it?
Speaker 12 (31:05):
He's basically calling me for out there.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
It's true. Early to give.
Speaker 12 (31:09):
A final verdict on the tariffs. You may wish to,
but at the moment it can't be said what the
long term effect is Gorixically, I.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Am just a journalist, but their narrative is unraveling. This
is the NBC, the.
Speaker 13 (31:27):
Left and people that don't like the president and don't
want things to work, and you know, like the center
of Elizabeth Moore will come on and say, inflation's out
of control and the economy is is getting killed.
Speaker 1 (31:39):
By by what's happening by these tariffs, this.
Speaker 13 (31:41):
Three percent, with the market at new highs, and and
really we haven't seen inflation, you.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Know, go up back to three.
Speaker 13 (31:49):
Maybe it will this week, maybe we'll see it. But
none of these things, none of these horrible things have happened.
But they still talk like it's happening.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
It's amazing. Well, the important there's an important lesson there.
Don't pick a congressman to be your money manager atte
That's what I would say. I don't. Oh, that probably
sums it up, all right. A New York police officer
and a fellow Muslim is killed while mom Donnie's overseas
getting married. By the time his plane lands, he's immediately
(32:20):
with the family. He's having a news conference with the
slain officer's brother, and suddenly he no longer believes in
defunding the police. I mean, you know, first from the
perspective of a brother, if my brother was a police
officer and got killed and somebody running for mayor comes
straight to our home, I'd say get the hell out
of here. Then he's canvassing and having a political news
(32:43):
conference over my brother's death. And my brother served and
died in uniform, and not long ago in twenty twenty,
this man tweeted, we don't need an investigation to know
that the NYPD is racist, anti queer, and a major
threat to public safety. There's no explanation given other than
(33:05):
oh I don't believe that anymore. Well, what changed your mind?
Why was NYPD racist then but not now? Why were
the anti queer then but not now? By the way,
this one is an Islamist, pro gay LGBTQ and a
major threat to public saty? What changed? And then he
(33:26):
came round and said we needed to fund the NYPD
now with budget tricks, no fake cuts, defund the police.
I wonder how this officer who died that he's chumming
with the family wonder how he felt he was ironically
(33:50):
getting his badge when this candidate was saying those things.
But all's changed the course of this race.
Speaker 14 (34:03):
I've been very clear about my view of public safety
and the critical role that police have in creating that
public safety that officers are tasked with delivering while we
ask them to respond to nearly every failure of the
social safety net, and the vision that we've put forward
in this campaign, despite what others may say, is not
to defund the police. It is in fact, to allow
(34:25):
those officers to respond to the serious crimes that many
of them signed up to address, and to do so
by ensuring that we ask them to focus on those crimes.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
Has he changed or is he just the final example?
Trust is lost in buckets. It's built back in drops.
And that wasn't much of a drop, and that your
sounds the day. We're all in this together. This is
your Morning Show with Michael Ndheld Joino
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on great stations across the country like Talk Radio eleven
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Enjoy the podcast two three starting your morning off right,
(00:24):
A new way of talk, a new way of understanding,
because we're in this together. This is your morning show
with Michael O'Dell Chorny telling you if I'm talking to
somebody with an accent, I talked back to them in
the same accent. And Mike MCCANNN I can't stop. It's
like singing along with a great song. I just want
(00:47):
to beat him. Thank you, Mike McCann. Seven minutes after
the hour, Rise and shine, one and all, and welcome
to Can you believe it's Thursday? Can you believe it's
the last day of July? Oh? How much longer before
we'll be hearing Chris music? Football? And then football kicks
off tonight, the first preseason game that goods an Alliance.
(01:11):
All is well if you're just waking up eight minutes
after the hour, A former senior advisor to President Biden's
scheduled to testify before the GOP and their probe into
Biden's mental fitness in office. You know the fake presidency.
Most have led the fifth claim, didn't what about this advisor?
Time will tell. Also, President Trump says is very hard
(01:32):
to make a trade deal with Canada now now that
it's prime minister has announced plans to recognize the Palestinian state.
And the gunman who shot and killed four people in
Manhattan may have gotten his gun. It looks like he
bought it from his supervisor in Las Vegas. And you
know what the big story is, Kamala Harris is not
running for governor and the Fed left interest rates alone.
(01:56):
David Bonnson is with the Boson Financial Group. He also
presides over the Dividend Cafe. He is my money whiz
and economist. David. Everybody's going to be turning you to
you today and asking the question, why didn't they lower
the rate or were they right and holding it?
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Well, they were not right and holding it.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
And I believed for some time that the Fed is
unnecessarily restrictive and tight, and.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
That it is doing damage.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
It was a one hundred percent chance that they weren't
going to cut the raid. It's been known for at
least a month. There was absolutely no chance they were
going to be cutting yesterday.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
So it was not a surprise. It wasn't news. The
President certainly knew that was coming.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
And what the market seemed to be indicating is that
they are going to start their cuts in September. That's
what the President came away from his meeting with SHERMYN.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Powell last week saying. And the real question that is
sort of unknown.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
It was not about yesterday and is not really in
about September.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
It's more just by the end of the year. Are
they going to have cut.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Two times one time?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Are they going to cut half a point or quarter
point in September.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
There's some questions about the magnitude, but that they are
waiting a little bit but then planning to cut, that's
all pretty well baked in the cave, all.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
Right, So walk us through the indicators. I know, like
the GDP it was forecast to two, the actual ended
up being three. Inflation rate looked about the same confidence
numbers real quickly.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
It was not forecast at two. It was adjusted. This
is a weird thing. The forecast was adjusted to two
after the PC defleet and deflator the inflation indicator came in.
So what was a two and a half forecast became
a two forecast, and then the real number came in
at three. So we're sitting right now because the first
(03:55):
quarter was at a negative half and now this quarter
came in three. So we're sitting on the year annualized. Okay,
this is not quarter by quarter. Each quarter's numbers are annualized,
so we don't have to multiply them by four, and
we're sitting.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
At one and a quarter real growth annualized year to date.
But nothing happened in the.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
First quarter or second quarter other than that the imports
skyrocketed in the first quarter as people front ran tariffs right,
and then that reversed, and then that reversed in the
second quarter. So there was four point nine percent subtraction
from GDP from net exports in the first quarter, and
(04:42):
there was four point seven percent addition to GDP in
the second quarter. So the inventories and the trade numbers
just basically offset each other.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
From Q one and Q two. But in terms of
the things.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
That people actually care about, like production and non residential
fixed investment which is a fancy word for business investment,
those things were they were pretty low. They were pretty low,
but they were positive though.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
All Right, So when people are like us just following
this and we're not experts like you, what indicators do
you look at? And then that when you look at those,
you go, Okay, it's time to lower the rates. And
then what indicators are they looking at and are they
the same?
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Well, first of all, I don't think the GDP number
has anything to do with it. But because the FED
believes and the society is asked the FED to believe
that their job is to fix the economy. If GDP
were very very low, if we were a recession, then
usually the Fed is cutting rates.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
That's one of the things.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Michael, that is just so absolutely comically incoherent about what
President Trump is saying is in the same speech he
will say we are the best economy in the world.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
We're doing great.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Everyone agrees, why don't we cut rates to one?
Speaker 1 (06:05):
When you cut rates.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
To one, because your economy's falling off a cliff, and
so I'm not sure that the president understands that. I
know he obviously is a leveraged real estate investor. I
totally understand why he loves low rates. So when you
ask me, when you ask me what I would do,
I just simply believe that I would be probably running
(06:29):
monetary policy around what I thought was best and not
what Congress had asked them to do. And that's not right.
What Congress has asked them to do is the problem,
which is this dual mandate of full employment and price
stability that are incoherent and are not really something that
(06:49):
I believe mere mortals can do. I think it's a
very complicated and dynamic economy.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
But if someone were just asking.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Me, what's the policy rate right now, where there's no
finger on the scale, they're not trying to tighten things
up because they believe things are moving too hot. Would
they consider inflationary, And they're not trying to speed things
up because they think things are going too slow, you know,
using a low interest rate to stimulate if it were
(07:16):
in between, if you're looking for policy neutrality, I would
guess at that rate right now is somewhere between two
and a half and three percent. So let's call it
right in the middle of what the FED is done
and what President Trump wants them to do.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
All right, so you agree that they should have been
cut and they have it. You're focused mainly on all right, now,
how much cutting and when by the end of the year,
And either way it doesn't like enough, does it.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Well again, there's a tool called forward guidance where they
affect monetary policy by telling the market what they're going
to be doing, and it has the effect of stimulating
because markets start to price in ahead of time where
it's going. But Sharon Power did answer one question yesterday
in the press conference very.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Well, which was people as some guy at Fox Business.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Asked him, what do you say to mortgage borrowers that
are having a hard time affording a home because of
high mortgage rates? He said, look, we don't really have
control over that. There's a little bit of sense in
which the short term rate affects it, but mortgage rates
are largely connected to the ten year, the thirty year
(08:26):
long term rates, and all we can affect is the
overnight rate that banks charge each other and the other
component to that, which I wish term and Power would say,
But of course it can't is this cuts both ways
right now? There are the high rates have made housing unaffordable,
but you know what really made housing unaffordable before that,
(08:46):
hyper hyper hyper low rates.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
They made all the prices go up.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
So when you start to manipulate prices up or down
with interest rates, you distort markets, You screw things up,
you do damage to real people, and it drives me bonkers.
It drives me bonkers. Essential banks want to do it,
It drives me bonkers. At the left wants to do it,
and then lately it drives me a little bit bonkers
that my friends on the right want them doing it.
(09:12):
Don't just leave it alone and let markets work for
Pete's sake.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
David Bonson you probably see him on Fox Business. He's
with the Bonson Financial Group. He also presides over the
Dividendcafe at Dividendcafe dot com. I do think it's worthy
of note, but I want to start for the first
time since nineteen ninety three, there were two descending votes.
But I want to come back to this whole concept.
And I hear it a lot from colleagues that are reporters.
(09:39):
You know, it's not all up to Powell. He's just
one of twelve votes. You know that kind of stuff.
Is that true?
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Because this is so stupid, It is just so stupid. Right,
of course, it's not true. There is a basically one
hundred year tradition that the governor's assent to what the
Chair mean is looking to do.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
You are allowed to dissent. It very rarely happens.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
It is for good reason that they desire to have
mostly consensus. Look in nineteen eighty six, there was one
vote where there was a total mutiny against Paul Volker
where Secretary Jim Jim Baker, James Baker, and I would
imagine President Reagan were very frustrated with Paul Volker, and
there were one vote where a majority went against Vulker,
(10:28):
and it caused a lot of disruption and Volker was
gone about a year later.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
That's now, and Greenspan came in.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
And yet this idea that like, well, all you just
need is the six to seven other governors to vote against.
They go in, they know it ever has happened to ever,
they discuss, and then they do believe in having some
form of consensus. That's why it's such a big deal
that even too dissented, because you generally get no dissent
at all.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Well, let me talk about it the way you know
when you know.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
You got descent once in twenty thirteen, you know who
the dissenter was dissenting against Ben Bernink.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
His name was J. Powell, nice dismount. All right, Well,
cutting the chance. There's a lot of people think this
has gotten personal, and the president, of course with a
hard hat on outing him over a billion and a
half dollar overage on a renovation project probably didn't help things.
But is it personal? You know, if they weren't having
this back and forth, would he have lowered the rates?
(11:25):
But I want to cut to this first time since
nineteen ninety three to descend against him, and I suspect
in September if he decides to hold the rate again
that number may grow. Are we heading towards one of
those upsetting kind of situations like you mentioned in the eighties. No,
we're not heading to that.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
They will end up going in ahead of time with
some consensus. I suspect that Pal has become very exhausted
by it, and he can have at this point, he
can have his cake and eat it too. He did
not want to signal to markets that he is giving
in to the bullying of the president. And now if
expectations are already that he's going to be cutting dead, yeah,
(12:09):
he can get the heat off of him and not
have it look like it was a capitulation both. So
I would be very surprised that there isn't more, uh
you know, kind of unanimous support of the policy decision
at the next FMC meeting.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
What can we look for tomorrow on the dividend cafe.
It is one of my favorites I've done in a
long time.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
I guess I say that a lot, and I'm not
usually so self congratulatory, but I did a very deep
dive into the objective way that we will be able
to look at all this tariff policy and trade policy
in six months in a year, instead of all the
political hacks that are right now celebrating and spiking the
football before deals are even done, or determining that everything
(12:51):
the President's done has been a failure before it's even done.
I'm looking at the objective ways that we can actually
look out in the future and.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Say, Okay, what was good, what was bad?
Speaker 1 (13:01):
How did this really go?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
And I promise you, as is always the case, there
will be something in it for everyone to get.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Up, because the left would have you believe we were
going to end up in a recession, the market was
going to crash doomsday in April, and it certainly didn't happen.
And now the deals are coming in. Now the right
is celebrating something that and already to divvy the money.
We're trying to figure out whether we're going to do
dividend checks back to the people, or pay down debt
(13:28):
or a little bit of ball that's like count your
chickens before they hatch. And now the left is coming
back with, Okay, we may have been wrong in April,
but you're wrong long term. This is still too early
to be celebrating. It's going to take somebody like you
to bust through the narrative on both ends and give
us a straight shot. Well, I know I'll be reading
Dividend Cafe dot com for David Bonson's weekly do we
(13:50):
call those blogs? What do we call those now? Report?
Market commentary, commentary, market commentary, my favorite David Bonnson. God
bless you, sir, great date, Thank you. This is your
morning show with Michael del Chno. Top five stories of
the day. We start with numero fulnol Well Brown University
(14:11):
is agreeing to a deal with the Trump administration that
restores federal research funding. Mark Mayfield has the details return.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
The Ivy League school will pay fifteen million dollars over
ten years to support workforce development in Rhode Island. Defunds
were frozen earlier this year over allegations it failed to
address anti semitism and use discriminatory admissions practices. As part
of the deal, the school agreed to follow federal rules
on sex and gender and increase support for Jewish students
and Israel related programs. Similar deals have been reached at
(14:39):
Columbia and Harvard.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I'm Mark Mayfew and UCLA six million dollars, two million
of which must be donated to combat anti semitism on campus.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is not running for governor
in California.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
In a statement, Harris says she gave serious thought to
making a run, but ultimately decided to not enter the race.
Harras said for now, her leadershi up in public service
will not be an elected office. The former Vice president
says she's looking forward to helping elect Democrats across the country.
Parra said she'll share more details about her plans in
the next few months. This comes as speculation remains regarding
the former presidential candidate possibly running for the White House again.
(15:15):
In twenty twenty eight, I'm Tammy trheo that.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Colorado Dennis accused of slowly poisoning his wife to death,
was found guilty.
Speaker 6 (15:22):
It took the jury less than twenty four hours to
decide the fate of James Craig, who was arrested in
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
PA jury unanimously and not a reasonable doubt find the defendant,
James Craig, guilty of murder in the first rate.
Speaker 6 (15:37):
Investigators in Arora say Craig killed his wife Angela by
poisoning her protein shakes with a deadly mixture of cyanide
and other drugs.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
I'm Brian shuk Hahn. Just like that, everything feels right
in the world. Football Tonight from Canton, Ohio Chargers Lions
Hall of Fame game NBC Baseball Tiger's Pound of the
DBAC seven to two, Guardian shut out the Rockies, Cards
lost two nothing to the Marlins. Rays lost five four
to the Yankees. That's two in a row. Dodgers fell
five to two and Sinci to the Reds. Bruce Cruse
(16:07):
slapped around by the Cubs, but they did take two
out of three in that series. Angels lost sixty three
to the Rangers. Padre shut out the Mets five nothing.
A's one five to four over the Mariners. Birthdays Today,
Where would you be without JK. Rowling? No, Habry Palta
the author is sixty years old. Today, Country singer Zach
Brown forty seven from Modern Family. Rico Rodriguez is twenty seven.
(16:30):
And if it's your birthday, Happy birthday. Yo. Hi everybody,
This is Dion the Wanderer.
Speaker 7 (16:39):
My morning show is your Morning Show with Michael del Jorderno.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Hey, it's Michael. Your Morning show can be heard live
each weekday morning on great stations like thirteen sixty The
Patriot in San Diego, News Talk one zero six point
three and AM eighteen eighty WM EQ oh Claire, Wisconsin
and one four nine The Patriot and Saint Louis, Missouri.
Would love to be a part of your morning routine.
But so glad you're here now. Enjoy the podcast. By
the way, tomorrow it's Friday with forty seven. Did I
(17:12):
mention Michael McDonald of the Doobie Brothers next week. That'll
be fine. Oh look at the look on your faith. Hey,
I know people that know people all right. If you
miss any of your morning show, I'm thinking, in particular
David Bonson just breaking down the politics of the Fed
and what the interest rate should be and will eventually be,
(17:33):
and the politics in between. That interview David Zenati breaking
down elections are not about the millions. It comes down
to handfuls and where, and then our early conversation about
all these things that we know happened. You know, the Russia, Russia,
Russia is coming to light. Will January sixth have a
(17:54):
new light? Will COVID have a new light? Will a
fake presidency for four years have a new like? Careful
what you ask for? There is something about kind of
knowing it and then it being proven and how that
impacts us because trust is gained in drops but lost
in buckets. Listen, you missed any of these conversations, We
(18:16):
get it. Life's busy. Things happen, and that's why we
just want to be wherever you are, whenever you are.
Some of you are hearing me live right now in
your home or in your car. Some are listening to
a podcast. Some of you are listening to a podcast
right now and this is a month ago. I don't know.
That's just the nature in which we live. But if
you miss a little, you can miss a lot, and
you don't have to miss it. That's why we have
the podcast. It'll be up in about an hour and
(18:38):
a half from right now, and if you miss something,
you can always catch up later on. And you can
find links to the podcast on your iHeartRadio app or
on our website, your Morning Show online dot com. Well,
back to the Fed holding interest rates. We knew that
was coming, signaling rate cuts are coming. I don't know.
Royo O'Neil, our national correspondent, is here, kind of had
(19:01):
I think David Bonson nailed that. He kind of had
his cake and eat it too. He got despite Trump
and not cave and still signal to the market what's coming.
What did you make of yesterday's predictable holding of the rate?
Speaker 8 (19:14):
Yeah, and President Trump still gets his foil right. I mean,
there's nothing he loves more than to rail to get
someone like this, and he still now has that in
Chairman Powell as he ponders who will replace him sometime
next year.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
But yes.
Speaker 8 (19:27):
The Chairman essentially is saying that they're reaching their goals
of getting inflation down to target levels. Unemployment remains near
historic lows, which is encouraging, But they don't know what's
going to happen with these tariffs, many of which go
into effect tomorrow, and there's a little uncertainty there and
that's why they're just going to hold things now. There
(19:47):
are three more FED meetings this year. Some think that
we might see two more rate cuts. I think everyone agrees, though,
we'll be at least one of a quarter point.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
So it's a bit of a wait and see, and
the market's reacting to what they perceive and are building
in as a cut. What I guess there is still
uncertainty is how much of a cut would it be
a quarter, would it be a half? Will it be
as you mentioned one, two or three cuts before the
end of the year. Cuts are coming, but that uncertainty
is still there as to what they'll be, and everybody
(20:18):
has their own opinion. I don't think the president's or
don't think interest they should at zero, don't think they
should be at one, but a lot of people think
they should be somewhere between two and a half and three,
so you know, you could get there by the end
of the year. But time will tell. There's no question
the battle between Trump and Powell have played politics, and
(20:40):
I think you know there's a lot of I haven't
heard you do it, so I'm not accusing you. But
a lot of people always talk about well, remember he
doesn't have the only vote, He's just one of twelve vote. Well, no,
they all follow his lead. Only this time, for the
first time since nineteen ninety three, two descended. And if
he tries to pull any shanganigans and hold off in September,
I think you'll see more than two. So I think
(21:01):
the clock is winding down on this whole political fight.
Speaker 8 (21:05):
And I do you know, and the tariff business, the
stuff going into effect tomorrow, but also how companies were
front loading their inventories. We saw that in the GDP
number that came out yesterday, beating expectations. You know, I
think we are still trying to go through a pretty
topsy turvy time and unringing that bell is so much harder.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
You know.
Speaker 8 (21:23):
We heard the President say, well, if inflation goes up,
just raise the rates back up again.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
It's harder the second time around.
Speaker 8 (21:29):
So I think that's the other caution that the chairman
Powell has like he's and then you know this is
we're talking about a six week difference, Like does it
really make that much of a difference, you know if that's.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
A two edged sword too, because that was my first
thought too. All Right, you're signally you're going to do
it next month. Why aren't you doing it now? Why not?
I mean I could do it either way, right, why
not now you're going to do it September. What that's
going to change in thirty one days other than my
birthday and my age and whether or not this year
remember that birthday and maybe send me a little something
from Florida. I don't know. Oh, I'm just riffing. I know,
(22:03):
I know you do. It'll be the same thing I
got last year, and like it. What I'm gonna get
you two of them? I guess that sleepover is still
out of the question or great reporting as always, We'll
talk again tomorrow. Guess what time it is. On the consequence, it's.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
The best way to get back on your page, to
get up.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
I've been living rent free in that guy's head for
years and that's just a bull. They're just blowing off Steve.
You know, maybe I do have tourettes. Every time I
hear that Kennedy quote. I have to do that. You
gotta try harder not to suck. Well, yeah, you like
to mimic what you hear? What it is? That's an
add thing right away, we're back to the Mike mccannlin.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
I do that too. I mean I when I hear
things on TV, I like to mimic it. Know. The
more I fall in love with you, the more I
realize it's because you're like me. Well, it's scary, isn't it.
Here's how the announcement went yesterday. Just disappoint of record.
Speaker 9 (22:58):
Good afternoon, My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on
achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable
prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite heightened uncertainty,
the economy is still in a solid position. The unemployment
rate remains low, and the labor market is at or
(23:19):
near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal,
but has been running somewhat above our two percent longer
run objective.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
In support of our goals.
Speaker 9 (23:31):
Today, if our Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy,
interest rate unchanged, the risks of higher unemployment and higher
inflation appear to have risen, and we believe that the
current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to
respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
So there you have it, interest rates holding steady. He
later would go on to indicate that the rate cuts
are coming, but probably not for a month or so,
just as we would look you in the eye and
tell you. Anybody tells you this is a twelve person decision,
Come on, whatever the Fed chair says, they always do,
(24:11):
but not always. In fact, for the first time since
nineteen ninety three, two people on the committee voted in dissent.
So that tells me definitely cuts are coming in September.
All right. This popped up yesterday as the President turned
his attention towards Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 7 (24:30):
I like it conceptually, and you know, Nancy Pelosi became
rich by having inside information. She made a fortune with
her husband, and I think that's disgraceful.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
So in that sense, I'd like it, but.
Speaker 7 (24:43):
I'd have to really see the you know, I study
these things very carefully, and this just happened, So I'll
take a look at it, but conceptually I like it.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
And what I do.
Speaker 7 (24:52):
Think is Nancy Pelosi should be investigated because what she
has the highest return of anybody practic in the history
of Wall Street save a few.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Uh and how did that happen?
Speaker 7 (25:07):
It happen by she knows exactly what's going to happen,
what's going.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
To be announced, You buy stock, and then the stock goes.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Up after the announcements made, and she had to be investigated.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Now, there are all kinds of rumors that behind the
scenes Nancy Pelosi is not just wanting the President impeach. No,
she wants him in jail, and she plans to lead
the charge to go after him after he leaves office.
Uh So there is that back and forth, but staying
focused on topic and not playing shirts and skins, there
(25:36):
is no explanation for the success rate of her investment,
and she would certainly be privy to know things, as
the President mentioned, before they happen. By the way, she
knows things bad that are going to happen before they
happen too, So she knows when to buy and she
knows when to sell. And if they do any kind
(25:58):
of legislation to protect it has to include not just
members of Congress, but their immediate and maybe even extended family.
After all, Nancy Pelosi always hides behind. It's her husband
doing all of the investing. Well, it kind of was
a Joe Biden moment in the debate when Jake Tapper,
(26:25):
interviewing Nancy Pelosi, brought up Donald Trump and his comments
and a potential investigation and watch how she reacts.
Speaker 10 (26:36):
And Nancy Pelosi became rach, I might have to read
that we're here to talk about the sixtieth anniversary of Medicaid.
That's what I agreed to come to talk to.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Yeah, but I want that means.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
In the election.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
I wanted to give you a chances to respond. He
accused you of insider trading. What's your response to that?
That's very ridiculous.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
In fact, I very much support the stop the trading
of members of comes. Not that I think anybody's doing
thing wrong. If they are, they are prosecuted and they
go to jail. But because of the confidence it skills
in American people don't.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Worry about this.
Speaker 10 (27:10):
But I have no concern about the obvious investments that
had been made over time.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
No, she stuttered her way through that what I found
the most interesting out of the abundance of the heart,
the mouth speaks, well, that's not what I agreed to
come on. See, these Democrat politicians are used to the
media being in their back pocket, especially seeing it in
Jake Tapper. I mean Jake Tapper bigger than a giraffe,
(27:39):
the old expression you can fill in the blank. He
sells the lie that the right felt like Joe Biden's
cognitive abilities were depleted, and then he sells the book
revealing they hid his cognitive impairment. I mean, that's bigger
than a giraffe. But so she makes the comment at
(28:03):
the very beginning, which I thought is interesting, How dare
you bring this up? That's not what I came on
here to discuss. In other words, we play the narrative
game and you stick to the script. Very revealing. Also
revealing is that Tapper did it to her. It makes
you wonder that delicate balance because when this all comes out,
(28:25):
they've all lost trust, every one of these scandals. If
we do COVID, the media's at the center of it. Boy,
do I know the way I was treated January sixth,
They're at the center of it. Russia Russia. Russia, They're
at the center of it. Remember all these things the
government agencies did to betray a presidency and American voters
and the American people was sold to you by the media.
(28:51):
I mean, if we have one takeaway from today's show,
trust is built one drop at a time. It's lost
in buckets. Jack Tapper trying to do one drop at
a time, get a trust back, and don't you love
Nancy Pelosi's response, Nancy.
Speaker 10 (29:11):
I might have to read that we're here to talk
about the sixtieth anniversary of Medicaid. That's what I agreed
to come to talk.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Yeah, but I wanted that means in the election, I
wanted to give you a chances to respond. He accused
you of insider t I mean, just wow, Well, there
is a narrative that's in play, and the narrative in
April was Donald Trump and he's going to collapse the market.
He's going to destroy the economy. We're gonna head into
a recession. The sky is falling and he's making it
(29:41):
fall until it didn't. And watch how quick they shift
to well it's early to celebrate it still could listen.
Speaker 11 (29:50):
Well, I would just like to go but I'd like
to build a Galorean and go back to April when
everybody here was predicting.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Likely to cause a recession. It stops and a recession happens.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
They're not talking about a US recession, They're talking about
a global recession leads a recession vision.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Look at the host jameson what was happening in Apra
As they try to distance themselves from even doing that,
they quickly move on to their new narrative. But watch
the clip that proves what they were saying.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
A reception so palpable panic on Wall Street red numbers
and worries about something else that starts with an r recession.
Speaker 11 (30:28):
You called the recession. You took your shoe off on
Joe Talk you up again. You took your shoe off
you you took your shoe off, and you said there
was going to be a.
Speaker 12 (30:39):
Recessions economic circumstances have now been put in place. The
most Wall Street economists of senior note say, unlike he
took calls a recession.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Business editor, at least he doesn't back down to give
that's true. What will they just a second of it?
Speaker 12 (31:05):
He's basically calling me for out there.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
It's true. Early to give.
Speaker 12 (31:09):
A final verdict on the tariffs. You may wish to,
but at the moment it can't be said what the
long term effect is Gorixically, I.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Am just a journalist, but their narrative is unraveling. This
is the NBC, the.
Speaker 13 (31:27):
Left and people that don't like the president and don't
want things to work, and you know, like the center
of Elizabeth Moore will come on and say, inflation's out
of control and the economy is is getting killed.
Speaker 1 (31:39):
By by what's happening by these tariffs, this.
Speaker 13 (31:41):
Three percent, with the market at new highs, and and
really we haven't seen inflation, you.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Know, go up back to three.
Speaker 13 (31:49):
Maybe it will this week, maybe we'll see it. But
none of these things, none of these horrible things have happened.
But they still talk like it's happening.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
It's amazing. Well, the important there's an important lesson there.
Don't pick a congressman to be your money manager atte
That's what I would say. I don't. Oh, that probably
sums it up, all right. A New York police officer
and a fellow Muslim is killed while mom Donnie's overseas
getting married. By the time his plane lands, he's immediately
(32:20):
with the family. He's having a news conference with the
slain officer's brother, and suddenly he no longer believes in
defunding the police. I mean, you know, first from the
perspective of a brother, if my brother was a police
officer and got killed and somebody running for mayor comes
straight to our home, I'd say get the hell out
of here. Then he's canvassing and having a political news
(32:43):
conference over my brother's death. And my brother served and
died in uniform, and not long ago in twenty twenty,
this man tweeted, we don't need an investigation to know
that the NYPD is racist, anti queer, and a major
threat to public safety. There's no explanation given other than
(33:05):
oh I don't believe that anymore. Well, what changed your mind?
Why was NYPD racist then but not now? Why were
the anti queer then but not now? By the way,
this one is an Islamist, pro gay LGBTQ and a
major threat to public saty? What changed? And then he
(33:26):
came round and said we needed to fund the NYPD
now with budget tricks, no fake cuts, defund the police.
I wonder how this officer who died that he's chumming
with the family wonder how he felt he was ironically
(33:50):
getting his badge when this candidate was saying those things.
But all's changed the course of this race.
Speaker 14 (34:03):
I've been very clear about my view of public safety
and the critical role that police have in creating that
public safety that officers are tasked with delivering while we
ask them to respond to nearly every failure of the
social safety net, and the vision that we've put forward
in this campaign, despite what others may say, is not
to defund the police. It is in fact, to allow
(34:25):
those officers to respond to the serious crimes that many
of them signed up to address, and to do so
by ensuring that we ask them to focus on those crimes.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
Has he changed or is he just the final example?
Trust is lost in buckets. It's built back in drops.
And that wasn't much of a drop, and that your
sounds the day. We're all in this together. This is
your Morning Show with Michael Ndheld Joino
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