Lockdown let-downs, leg-ups & two swing seats

As Auckland struggles through a "tricky" extended lockdown, who are the political winners & losers? We debate covid fatigue, who's won from the wage subsidies (hint: not women) and two up-for-grabs electorates - Ōhāriu and Whanganui.

By Tim Watkin

It's been a tricky week for the country, especially the third of all New Zealanders living under lockdown level 3 in Auckland. And it's turned politics on its head. National and ACT trying to outspend Labour. The left-leaning government being criticised for not doing enough for women and its poorest citizens. Listen hard enough and you might even have heard that rarest of things, sympathy for Aucklanders from those who live south of the Bombays.

In Caucus this week, the team aren't convinced Aucklanders deserve too much credit, given the traffic on the road, the minimal mask use and stories of people leaving their neighbourhoods to go hither and yon. The mood in Auckland this week has felt more like despair than resilience, more clinging on than rallying together. And these signs of fatigue will be sure to have been noticed by Cabinet, as it tries to walk the tricky line between public health and the public will.

Jacinda Ardern has been using the word "tricky" a lot this week, as Guyon Espiner says, presumably because it's worked on focus groups. Time again she has described the virus as "tricky", as if it was a person, an opponent. ACT leader David Seymour called out the Prime Minister for blaming the outbreak on the Covid-19 coronavirus, rather than taking responsibility for border failures. National's Health spokesperson Dr Shane Reti in parliament forced Health Minister Chris Hipkins to admit that not everyone in isolation are getting the day three tests, as had been widely believed. While Hipkins argued from a public health point of view that it's the day twelve test that matters and no-one is released without a negative test, Lisa Owen pointed out it's a performance measure. Politically, it's another fail and one that reminds voters of the tests not carried out at the border.

For now, Labour's political immunity to Covid-19 seems to be holding, however. The public are fed up, but the Caucus crew don't see it costing many votes yet. Just as at the 2011 election John Key could point to Wall St and American mortgages as the cause of the Global Financial Crisis and say we are better off than most, Ardern is saying the virus is not the fault of her government and it is handling it better than most.

For some voters this latest outbreak may even underline a desire not to change horses in the midst of a pandemic. It's the hardest time to be an Opposition party, when even the government's own failings could work in its favour…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details