Sending out the political assassins as National shoots itself in the foot

With eight days, 18 hours, two minutes and 10 seconds until voting starts, party leaders are calling up hit-jobs as they scrap for their political lives. Plus, the debate debacles, ACT's rise and National's steady run of own goals.

By Tim Watkin

Watch the video version of the episode here

As the clock ticks down on this year's election campaign, the guns are coming out. I know, the usual politics cliche is that the gloves are coming off, but in this otherwise subdued campaign we're talking about more than mere body blows. Parties and their leaders are fighting for their political lives.

Election 2020 has felt like a phony war, a bout of shadow boxing as politicians go through the motions, always with half an eye on Covid-19 and the virus sweeping the world. But the election at the end of it all is entirely real and deadly serious, especially for New Zealand First, the Greens and most other minor parties. The language is escalating.

In a typical MMP election, parties are conscious of potential coalition negotiations after election day. For the past couple of elections - as Guyon Espiner reminds us in today's Caucus podcast - National has been hoping to finish off New Zealand First. But it was always an unspoken goal, lest Winston Peters & Co end up as monarch-makers after the election. This year it's all more explicit.

This week Judith Collins said on Newstalk ZB that ACT leader David Seymour has two jobs - to retain Epsom and "get rid of Winston Peters". It was an unusually transparent request for a political hit-job. New Zealand First's Northland candidate Shane Jones was equally direct on Newshub Nation last weekend, saying "I think there are a host of people in Labour who find the Greens more agreeable than myself. Which is why I'm going to do everything I can to ensure the Greens don't survive".

Both parties are in real jeopardy because neither has an electorate seat to keep them in parliament if they don't reach the five percent MMP threshold. While there had been talk about Jones competing in Northland and Chloe Swarbrick having a go in Auckland Central, the only public polls have them both sitting in third place. It's almost certainly five or bust for both parties and there's no love lost as they scrap it out.

In a similar vein, The Opportunities Party and Māori Party must wonder if they can survive another election cycle outside of parliament if they don't somehow reach five percent. That's unlikely for either, but at least the Māori Party have a shot at political survival via Te Tai Hauāuru…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details