September 4, 2025 • 15 mins
After making an announcement about a format change to the sleepers episode, JJ looks at a handful of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who may be sitting on your waiver wire despite strong Week 1 matchups.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachariesen
in this episode oney thirteen of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. I've
(00:22):
teamed up with DraftKings to kick off Week one. Head
over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and get rewarded with
one DFS ticket for Week one and play free for
your shot at a share of millions. The ticket reward
amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure
you sign up with promo code Late Round Today. Gambling
problem called one hundred Gambler or eight seven seven eight
(00:44):
hope en wyre Tex Hope NY to four six seven
three six nine in New York. Help is available for
problem gambling Call eight eight seven eight nine seven seven
seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connecticut eighteen plus
most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibilit restrictions apply.
Void were prohibited one per customer, minimum five dollars deposit required.
Ticket rewards or site credit's only valid for use on
(01:04):
eligible DFS. Contest Ticket awards are single use and expire
nine to eight to twenty five at eight to twenty
pm Eastern See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions
sponsored by DraftKings. Through the years, there's been one consistent
piece of feedback with this sleeper show. I talk about
way too many deep sleepers. In the past, I've looked
at players roster in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues,
(01:27):
and then I've looked at another bucket of players under
the ten percent mark, and that's too low of a threshold.
So this season, I'm changing it up. I'm gonna looking
at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo
leagues as one bucket, talking through some guys that I
generally like more than the market that week. Then I'll
dig into players that are rostered in that twenty percent
(01:47):
to fifty percent range, and then from there I'll find
players who are rostered in fewer than twenty percent of
leagues who you may want to consider starting. And I'm
not going to come at you with just loads and
loads of players. I want to be as thoughtful as
I can with the players that I'm picking. So we're
looking at like five to seven players per tier some
weeks last year that number was closer to ten to twelve.
(02:10):
When I mentioned names on this show, I'm not saying
start them no matter what. Just for the record, I'm
simply giving you options. Some of you may be in
a pinch and you may need some help off the
waiver wire. Others may be looking to gather some information
on matchups. Whatever the case may be, know that the
sleepers on this show they're sleepers for a reason. Teams
(02:30):
in your league don't have them rostered. They're not the
best fantasy football assets in the world. Now, I'll do
my best to give you context for where I have
these guys ranked. But if you're ever curious about precisely
where I have them ranked, you can always check out
the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. I'm posting weekly rankings
over there for the Insider tier. With all that out
(02:50):
of the way, let's look at Week one sleepers. Now,
as I said, this first group of sleepers consisted of
players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues.
And we'll kick things off with the only quarterback that
I have in this group, and that's Trevor Lawrence. Lawren's
hopefully got upgrades across the board this season. There's Travis Hunter,
who sounds like he's gonna play more offense than defense
(03:12):
to start the year. There's an improved backfield, they have
base shall touton now, and most importantly, Liam Cohen is
coaching this team. We just watched Cohen lead the Buccaneers
as one of the best offenses in football. And Baker
Mayfield had a career year and part of that career
year was Baker Mayfield getting it done more on the
ground with his legs, and that's what I'm really eager
(03:35):
to see with Lawrence. Te law actually has used his
mobility quite a bit throughout his career. He's never finished
the season with fewer than two point seven rushing points
per game. That's way higher than where Baker was at
prior to last year, and Baker finished the season last
year with three point three points per game via the rush.
The Jacks get the Panthers this week in a game
(03:55):
that has a solid forty six and a half point
total that gives Jacksonville this sixth highest team total on
the slate, and Carolina, according to PFF, is entering the
season with a third worst secondary in football. Lawrence is
a great play and you should be using him over
players who are drafted over him, like Justin Fields and
Caleb Williams. I think it's a fringe top ten quarterback
(04:16):
this week now in that same game as Tank Bigsby,
who's rostered in eighty percent of leagues at the time
of this recording. I do still prefer Traves Etn to
Tank Bigsby this week because I'm not sure the pass
catching is on Bigsby's side. But Caroline is coming off
a season where they were by far the worst team
at stopping running backs in Fantasy football, and Bigsby still
(04:37):
projects to see the most work on the ground in
that offense. And like I said, that offense could score
a lot of points. It's a game that could be
higher scoring, so you can look his way if you
need someone in the flex. Now, one player who I
have ranked below Bigsby but could be a cheap option
if you're in a deeper league is Javonte Williams. Now
the matchup against Philly, it's not a great matchup, but
(04:59):
the Cowboy a pretty big underdogs, and Williams, at least
early on in the season, is more than likely going
to play the hurry up role. In that Dallas offense.
Not only did he see a solid twelve point eight
percent target share last year in Sean Payton's offense, but
the Broncos used Williams on sixty one percent of their
long down and distance snaps ac cording of Fantasy Life data,
that was by far the most on the team. So
(05:22):
there's definitely a scenario here where Javonte Williams sees the
most work on the ground for Dallas. That's what we're projecting.
And then all the while he'll see by far the
most snaps due to a possible negative game script hitting
and if that happens, he can come away with flexworthy
numbers even in a tough matchup. Now, at wide receiver
(05:43):
Josh Downs, Miami secondary has a chance to be really
bad this year, and in the slot this week, they're
gonna be playing Jason Marshall Junior. He's a rookie fifth
round pick out of Florida. Downs is coming off a
year where he saw a target on twenty nine percent
of his routes run Among one hundred plus target get
wide receivers last year, only Malik Neighbors in pukin Akua
could match that number. I think downs could have a
(06:06):
really big game. Now, I don't have a tight end
in this tier this week, so the last player I
want to talk about is Darnell Mooney. As I said
in the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, Mooney was
one of the best deep ball receivers in football last year,
only Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton had more fifteen plus
air yard receptions. Only Jefferson, George Pickens, and DK Metcalf,
according to PFF, had more twenty yard receptions. That pairs
(06:30):
really well with Michael Pennix, who finished last season with
the second highest average depth of target among quarterbacks among
qualified quarterbacks. And the Falcons get a Tampa Bay secondary
this week that ranks as a below average one entering
the season according to PFF. That game also has one
of the higher totals on this slate. It could be
high scoring. So if Mooney's able to go, he's been
(06:51):
recovering from that shoulder injury, I'm cool with him as
like a wide receiver for maybe even a wide receiver
three type. Next, we're looking at players rosterman in twenty
percent to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues and we'll start
a quarterback with Bryce Young. Now, I already mentioned that
the Jags and Panthers game could be higher scoring, and
Bryce Young is obviously gonna be part of that. But also,
(07:13):
like I talked about earlier in the week, Young was
actually not bad when he returned from the bench last season.
Over his final ten games post benching, he averaged eighteen
standard Fantasy points per game while averaging five points per
game via rushing. With Ttero McMillan now in the mix
a wide receiver, Young has a real shot to be
fantasy viable, especially in a good game environment like this one.
(07:35):
I'd be fine playing Bryce Young over the quarterbacks in
the Chicago Minnesota game, and I think he's in the
same tier as someone like Justin Herbert. Michael Pennix is
the other quarterback to shout out here. Now, I like
Bryce Young Moore, but like I said, with Darnell Mooney,
the Falcons passing attack has a plus matchup in what
should be a higher scoring game against the Buccaneers. Pennix
(07:56):
may not bring a ton of juice with his legs,
but as long as Mooney is back and healthy, he's
got a shot to post some big passing numbers. Last year,
the Bucks had one of the highest adjusted passing yards
per game allowed in all of football. Now at running back,
you could look at the Cleveland backfield of the two
Jerome Ford and Dylan Samson. This week, I do prefer Ford.
(08:17):
The Browns get a great matchup against the Bengals and Ford,
like I said on yesterday's ten Trends episode, he's the
veteran presence in that backfield with the most two minute
and long down and distant snaps for Cleveland last year.
By far, the Browns are big underdogs. I'm expecting a
decent bit more forward than Samson in Week one. He
could bring some PPR upside. Ollie Gordon's the other guy
(08:41):
to call out in this tier Devon a Chan He's
gonna get his, but he's also coming off that calf injury.
He's also never been like an eighty percent running back
rush share player. He was at a sub sixty percent
running back rush share last year. There's plenty of work
to be had for Allie Gordon and he could have
a decent day against this Colts defense. Christian Kirk is
(09:01):
going to be playing a lot in a slot this year,
and my guess is that he starts the year out
playing in two wide receiver sets as long as he's healthy,
and that's just given the inexperience that the Texans have
at wide receiver. I'm a little bit worried about how
this Texans offensive line is going to hold up, just
in general, but definitely this week against the Rams. The
(09:23):
Rams last year were able to generate pressure at the
tenth highest rate in football. That could result in some
easier lower aid dot looks from CJ. Stroud to Christian Kirk.
That would really benefit Kirk out of the slot, and
with him likely running more routes than he will later
in the season as some of these rookies develop, now
might be the time to use him. Cedric Tillman's also
(09:44):
pretty interesting this week. The Browns should see that negative
game sert like I talked about against Cincinnati, but even
if they don't, the Bengals are entering the season with
a bottom ten secondary according to PFF. Tilman last season
was averaging a twenty two percent target chair per game
rate during the a month before his season ending injury.
If that type of share continues with Joe Flacco, then
(10:05):
Tilman could be in store for a really great week,
and then at tight end Chigaconquo, as I've been saying,
he had a wild route participation rate with cam Ward
in the preseason. And there's no obvious number two option
in Tennessee Denver, who they face this week. They have
a great defense, and Calvin Ridley could be occupied by
Patrick Surtan. If a negative game script hits for Tennessee,
(10:28):
a Conquo could be one of the players in that
offense who benefits most. We're now onto players roster in
fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and look, if
you have to start one of these guys in Week one,
then you're either in a super deep league or you
had a super bad draft. Regardless, I have some options
for you, Joe Flacco. If I'm talking about Jerome Ford
(10:49):
and Dylan Sampson and Cedric Tillman, I should probably mention
Flaco too, right, the Bengals surrendered bottom ten numbers to
quarterbacks last year when adjusted for strength of opponent, and
Flacco so the last time he was in Cleveland he
gave us five top fifteen performances and five regular season starts.
The Browns will have to keep pace with his Bengals
offense and passing volume is the way that's going to
(11:13):
have to happen. That makes Flacco a low end QB
two option. Now I've got Danny Dimes ranked below Flacco,
but I don't like totally despise him either, because, like
I said, the Dolphins have problems in their secondary and
Indianapolis has weapons all over that offense, and sportsbooks are
recognizing this too. The Colts actually have the twelveth best
(11:33):
implied team total on this week slate. Dimes, as we know,
can bring a little something extra with his legs too,
so I think he's most definitely in streaming territory here
in Week one. Now, my lone running back in this
tier is Chris Rodriguez. The Giants aren't necessarily an ideal matchup,
but with Bill Krosky Merritt being a first year player,
(11:53):
it's hard to envision him having this massive workload in
Week one. The Commanders have come out and they talked
about Rodriguez being their short yardage and goal line guy,
and if they do hit a positive game script, which
is very possible because they're six point favorites, then Rodriguez
could benefit. And Washington has the third best implied team total.
On this week's slate, We're gonna go back to that
(12:15):
Jacksonville Carolina game with this next one. In shout out
xavierly Get. I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode how
I don't personally think Lagett is like the answer for Carolina,
like the number one obvious answer, But I've been wrong
plenty in the past, and I still think he's capable
of like a twenty percent target share. He'll play full
time snaps, and his route share should be really strong,
(12:37):
So I'm willing to throw him out there as an
option within this game that I think could be high scoring.
The Mario Douglas has basically been New England's best wide
receiver over his two years in the league. That might
not be saying much, but he was barely second on
the team in yards per out run as a rookie
at one point seven zero, and that season as a rookie,
he had a target's PERU run rate of point twenty four.
(13:00):
Last year, his numbers fell, but both of those numbers
for to Mario Douglas were best on the team. I'm
interested to see how fast paced his opponent this week.
Vegas plays on offense with Chip Kelly. If Kelly runs
the offense at the pace that he did the last
time he was in the NFL, it's gonna allow opposing
offenses to also run more plays. Now, that might not happen,
(13:21):
but it's a nice upside piece for this plus matchup
for New England. Vegas has PFF's worst secondary entering this season,
and then one more wide receiver to call out here,
Alamide's Akias. Luther Burton got a slow start to camp
with an injury, and it allowed Alamide's Achias to sort
of carve out a slot role in that Bears offense.
(13:42):
My guess is that he's gonna be the primary slot
guy against Minnesota, and with Minnesota's front, I think Caleb
Williams might be looking for those quick outlet throws that's
gonna help Zakias. He's a deeper sleeper for sure, but
I think he could be a nice PPR option. And
then I'll go with one tight this year, and that's
Kate Oughton. Last year, only Trey McBride had a higher
(14:04):
route participation rate at tight end across the league than
Kate Oughton did. We saw Auten come through with some
big games when the wide receivers were banged up for
Tampa Bay last year, and right now we're looking at
just Mike Evans and rookie of mechag Buca. Those are
the only guys who are locked in target getters, so
Auton in a game where Tampa Bay has a shot
(14:25):
to score a lot of points against Atlanta, he makes
a lot of sense. Now at the end of these episodes,
I'm gonna throw out some streaming defenses that you can
look at off the waiver wire, and I'll keep it quick,
because that's the point of these episodes. Arizona was a
fifteen transactions defense this week because they're near touchdown road
favorites against Spencer Rattler and the Saints. Washington works as
(14:45):
well against Russell Wilson and the Giants. Russ played just
eleven games last year, He's still finished in the top
fifteen in sacks taken. And speaking of sacks, the Rams
could have their way with that Houston offensive line this week.
I mentioned that with Christian Kirk, but I love the
Ram as sort of a sneaky streamer, and then New
England could work too. That game against Vegas is a
(15:05):
forty three and a half point total and the Raiders
of a bottom ten implied total on this week's slate.
So those are the four choices this week, the Cardinals, Commanders, Rams,
and Patriots in that order. That's it for today's show,
though thanks to all of you for listening. If you
subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are by shredding for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast
(15:26):
can be found in diffort to follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Enjoy football
tonight everyone. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with a
new Mailbag episode and a new episode of Late Round Perspectives.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachariesen
in this episode oney thirteen of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. I've
(00:22):
teamed up with DraftKings to kick off Week one. Head
over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and get rewarded with
one DFS ticket for Week one and play free for
your shot at a share of millions. The ticket reward
amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure
you sign up with promo code Late Round Today. Gambling
problem called one hundred Gambler or eight seven seven eight
(00:44):
hope en wyre Tex Hope NY to four six seven
three six nine in New York. Help is available for
problem gambling Call eight eight seven eight nine seven seven
seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connecticut eighteen plus
most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibilit restrictions apply.
Void were prohibited one per customer, minimum five dollars deposit required.
Ticket rewards or site credit's only valid for use on
(01:04):
eligible DFS. Contest Ticket awards are single use and expire
nine to eight to twenty five at eight to twenty
pm Eastern See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions
sponsored by DraftKings. Through the years, there's been one consistent
piece of feedback with this sleeper show. I talk about
way too many deep sleepers. In the past, I've looked
at players roster in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues,
(01:27):
and then I've looked at another bucket of players under
the ten percent mark, and that's too low of a threshold.
So this season, I'm changing it up. I'm gonna looking
at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo
leagues as one bucket, talking through some guys that I
generally like more than the market that week. Then I'll
dig into players that are rostered in that twenty percent
(01:47):
to fifty percent range, and then from there I'll find
players who are rostered in fewer than twenty percent of
leagues who you may want to consider starting. And I'm
not going to come at you with just loads and
loads of players. I want to be as thoughtful as
I can with the players that I'm picking. So we're
looking at like five to seven players per tier some
weeks last year that number was closer to ten to twelve.
(02:10):
When I mentioned names on this show, I'm not saying
start them no matter what. Just for the record, I'm
simply giving you options. Some of you may be in
a pinch and you may need some help off the
waiver wire. Others may be looking to gather some information
on matchups. Whatever the case may be, know that the
sleepers on this show they're sleepers for a reason. Teams
(02:30):
in your league don't have them rostered. They're not the
best fantasy football assets in the world. Now, I'll do
my best to give you context for where I have
these guys ranked. But if you're ever curious about precisely
where I have them ranked, you can always check out
the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. I'm posting weekly rankings
over there for the Insider tier. With all that out
(02:50):
of the way, let's look at Week one sleepers. Now,
as I said, this first group of sleepers consisted of
players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues.
And we'll kick things off with the only quarterback that
I have in this group, and that's Trevor Lawrence. Lawren's
hopefully got upgrades across the board this season. There's Travis Hunter,
who sounds like he's gonna play more offense than defense
(03:12):
to start the year. There's an improved backfield, they have
base shall touton now, and most importantly, Liam Cohen is
coaching this team. We just watched Cohen lead the Buccaneers
as one of the best offenses in football. And Baker
Mayfield had a career year and part of that career
year was Baker Mayfield getting it done more on the
ground with his legs, and that's what I'm really eager
(03:35):
to see with Lawrence. Te law actually has used his
mobility quite a bit throughout his career. He's never finished
the season with fewer than two point seven rushing points
per game. That's way higher than where Baker was at
prior to last year, and Baker finished the season last
year with three point three points per game via the rush.
The Jacks get the Panthers this week in a game
(03:55):
that has a solid forty six and a half point
total that gives Jacksonville this sixth highest team total on
the slate, and Carolina, according to PFF, is entering the
season with a third worst secondary in football. Lawrence is
a great play and you should be using him over
players who are drafted over him, like Justin Fields and
Caleb Williams. I think it's a fringe top ten quarterback
(04:16):
this week now in that same game as Tank Bigsby,
who's rostered in eighty percent of leagues at the time
of this recording. I do still prefer Traves Etn to
Tank Bigsby this week because I'm not sure the pass
catching is on Bigsby's side. But Caroline is coming off
a season where they were by far the worst team
at stopping running backs in Fantasy football, and Bigsby still
(04:37):
projects to see the most work on the ground in
that offense. And like I said, that offense could score
a lot of points. It's a game that could be
higher scoring, so you can look his way if you
need someone in the flex. Now, one player who I
have ranked below Bigsby but could be a cheap option
if you're in a deeper league is Javonte Williams. Now
the matchup against Philly, it's not a great matchup, but
(04:59):
the Cowboy a pretty big underdogs, and Williams, at least
early on in the season, is more than likely going
to play the hurry up role. In that Dallas offense.
Not only did he see a solid twelve point eight
percent target share last year in Sean Payton's offense, but
the Broncos used Williams on sixty one percent of their
long down and distance snaps ac cording of Fantasy Life data,
that was by far the most on the team. So
(05:22):
there's definitely a scenario here where Javonte Williams sees the
most work on the ground for Dallas. That's what we're projecting.
And then all the while he'll see by far the
most snaps due to a possible negative game script hitting
and if that happens, he can come away with flexworthy
numbers even in a tough matchup. Now, at wide receiver
(05:43):
Josh Downs, Miami secondary has a chance to be really
bad this year, and in the slot this week, they're
gonna be playing Jason Marshall Junior. He's a rookie fifth
round pick out of Florida. Downs is coming off a
year where he saw a target on twenty nine percent
of his routes run Among one hundred plus target get
wide receivers last year, only Malik Neighbors in pukin Akua
could match that number. I think downs could have a
(06:06):
really big game. Now, I don't have a tight end
in this tier this week, so the last player I
want to talk about is Darnell Mooney. As I said
in the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, Mooney was
one of the best deep ball receivers in football last year,
only Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton had more fifteen plus
air yard receptions. Only Jefferson, George Pickens, and DK Metcalf,
according to PFF, had more twenty yard receptions. That pairs
(06:30):
really well with Michael Pennix, who finished last season with
the second highest average depth of target among quarterbacks among
qualified quarterbacks. And the Falcons get a Tampa Bay secondary
this week that ranks as a below average one entering
the season according to PFF. That game also has one
of the higher totals on this slate. It could be
high scoring. So if Mooney's able to go, he's been
(06:51):
recovering from that shoulder injury, I'm cool with him as
like a wide receiver for maybe even a wide receiver
three type. Next, we're looking at players rosterman in twenty
percent to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues and we'll start
a quarterback with Bryce Young. Now, I already mentioned that
the Jags and Panthers game could be higher scoring, and
Bryce Young is obviously gonna be part of that. But also,
(07:13):
like I talked about earlier in the week, Young was
actually not bad when he returned from the bench last season.
Over his final ten games post benching, he averaged eighteen
standard Fantasy points per game while averaging five points per
game via rushing. With Ttero McMillan now in the mix
a wide receiver, Young has a real shot to be
fantasy viable, especially in a good game environment like this one.
(07:35):
I'd be fine playing Bryce Young over the quarterbacks in
the Chicago Minnesota game, and I think he's in the
same tier as someone like Justin Herbert. Michael Pennix is
the other quarterback to shout out here. Now, I like
Bryce Young Moore, but like I said, with Darnell Mooney,
the Falcons passing attack has a plus matchup in what
should be a higher scoring game against the Buccaneers. Pennix
(07:56):
may not bring a ton of juice with his legs,
but as long as Mooney is back and healthy, he's
got a shot to post some big passing numbers. Last year,
the Bucks had one of the highest adjusted passing yards
per game allowed in all of football. Now at running back,
you could look at the Cleveland backfield of the two
Jerome Ford and Dylan Samson. This week, I do prefer Ford.
(08:17):
The Browns get a great matchup against the Bengals and Ford,
like I said on yesterday's ten Trends episode, he's the
veteran presence in that backfield with the most two minute
and long down and distant snaps for Cleveland last year.
By far, the Browns are big underdogs. I'm expecting a
decent bit more forward than Samson in Week one. He
could bring some PPR upside. Ollie Gordon's the other guy
(08:41):
to call out in this tier Devon a Chan He's
gonna get his, but he's also coming off that calf injury.
He's also never been like an eighty percent running back
rush share player. He was at a sub sixty percent
running back rush share last year. There's plenty of work
to be had for Allie Gordon and he could have
a decent day against this Colts defense. Christian Kirk is
(09:01):
going to be playing a lot in a slot this year,
and my guess is that he starts the year out
playing in two wide receiver sets as long as he's healthy,
and that's just given the inexperience that the Texans have
at wide receiver. I'm a little bit worried about how
this Texans offensive line is going to hold up, just
in general, but definitely this week against the Rams. The
(09:23):
Rams last year were able to generate pressure at the
tenth highest rate in football. That could result in some
easier lower aid dot looks from CJ. Stroud to Christian Kirk.
That would really benefit Kirk out of the slot, and
with him likely running more routes than he will later
in the season as some of these rookies develop, now
might be the time to use him. Cedric Tillman's also
(09:44):
pretty interesting this week. The Browns should see that negative
game sert like I talked about against Cincinnati, but even
if they don't, the Bengals are entering the season with
a bottom ten secondary according to PFF. Tilman last season
was averaging a twenty two percent target chair per game
rate during the a month before his season ending injury.
If that type of share continues with Joe Flacco, then
(10:05):
Tilman could be in store for a really great week,
and then at tight end Chigaconquo, as I've been saying,
he had a wild route participation rate with cam Ward
in the preseason. And there's no obvious number two option
in Tennessee Denver, who they face this week. They have
a great defense, and Calvin Ridley could be occupied by
Patrick Surtan. If a negative game script hits for Tennessee,
(10:28):
a Conquo could be one of the players in that
offense who benefits most. We're now onto players roster in
fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and look, if
you have to start one of these guys in Week one,
then you're either in a super deep league or you
had a super bad draft. Regardless, I have some options
for you, Joe Flacco. If I'm talking about Jerome Ford
(10:49):
and Dylan Sampson and Cedric Tillman, I should probably mention
Flaco too, right, the Bengals surrendered bottom ten numbers to
quarterbacks last year when adjusted for strength of opponent, and
Flacco so the last time he was in Cleveland he
gave us five top fifteen performances and five regular season starts.
The Browns will have to keep pace with his Bengals
offense and passing volume is the way that's going to
(11:13):
have to happen. That makes Flacco a low end QB
two option. Now I've got Danny Dimes ranked below Flacco,
but I don't like totally despise him either, because, like
I said, the Dolphins have problems in their secondary and
Indianapolis has weapons all over that offense, and sportsbooks are
recognizing this too. The Colts actually have the twelveth best
(11:33):
implied team total on this week slate. Dimes, as we know,
can bring a little something extra with his legs too,
so I think he's most definitely in streaming territory here
in Week one. Now, my lone running back in this
tier is Chris Rodriguez. The Giants aren't necessarily an ideal matchup,
but with Bill Krosky Merritt being a first year player,
(11:53):
it's hard to envision him having this massive workload in
Week one. The Commanders have come out and they talked
about Rodriguez being their short yardage and goal line guy,
and if they do hit a positive game script, which
is very possible because they're six point favorites, then Rodriguez
could benefit. And Washington has the third best implied team total.
On this week's slate, We're gonna go back to that
(12:15):
Jacksonville Carolina game with this next one. In shout out
xavierly Get. I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode how
I don't personally think Lagett is like the answer for Carolina,
like the number one obvious answer, But I've been wrong
plenty in the past, and I still think he's capable
of like a twenty percent target share. He'll play full
time snaps, and his route share should be really strong,
(12:37):
So I'm willing to throw him out there as an
option within this game that I think could be high scoring.
The Mario Douglas has basically been New England's best wide
receiver over his two years in the league. That might
not be saying much, but he was barely second on
the team in yards per out run as a rookie
at one point seven zero, and that season as a rookie,
he had a target's PERU run rate of point twenty four.
(13:00):
Last year, his numbers fell, but both of those numbers
for to Mario Douglas were best on the team. I'm
interested to see how fast paced his opponent this week.
Vegas plays on offense with Chip Kelly. If Kelly runs
the offense at the pace that he did the last
time he was in the NFL, it's gonna allow opposing
offenses to also run more plays. Now, that might not happen,
(13:21):
but it's a nice upside piece for this plus matchup
for New England. Vegas has PFF's worst secondary entering this season,
and then one more wide receiver to call out here,
Alamide's Akias. Luther Burton got a slow start to camp
with an injury, and it allowed Alamide's Achias to sort
of carve out a slot role in that Bears offense.
(13:42):
My guess is that he's gonna be the primary slot
guy against Minnesota, and with Minnesota's front, I think Caleb
Williams might be looking for those quick outlet throws that's
gonna help Zakias. He's a deeper sleeper for sure, but
I think he could be a nice PPR option. And
then I'll go with one tight this year, and that's
Kate Oughton. Last year, only Trey McBride had a higher
(14:04):
route participation rate at tight end across the league than
Kate Oughton did. We saw Auten come through with some
big games when the wide receivers were banged up for
Tampa Bay last year, and right now we're looking at
just Mike Evans and rookie of mechag Buca. Those are
the only guys who are locked in target getters, so
Auton in a game where Tampa Bay has a shot
(14:25):
to score a lot of points against Atlanta, he makes
a lot of sense. Now at the end of these episodes,
I'm gonna throw out some streaming defenses that you can
look at off the waiver wire, and I'll keep it quick,
because that's the point of these episodes. Arizona was a
fifteen transactions defense this week because they're near touchdown road
favorites against Spencer Rattler and the Saints. Washington works as
(14:45):
well against Russell Wilson and the Giants. Russ played just
eleven games last year, He's still finished in the top
fifteen in sacks taken. And speaking of sacks, the Rams
could have their way with that Houston offensive line this week.
I mentioned that with Christian Kirk, but I love the
Ram as sort of a sneaky streamer, and then New
England could work too. That game against Vegas is a
(15:05):
forty three and a half point total and the Raiders
of a bottom ten implied total on this week's slate.
So those are the four choices this week, the Cardinals, Commanders, Rams,
and Patriots in that order. That's it for today's show,
though thanks to all of you for listening. If you
subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are by shredding for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast
(15:26):
can be found in diffort to follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Enjoy football
tonight everyone. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with a
new Mailbag episode and a new episode of Late Round Perspectives.
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