September 5, 2025 • 17 mins
On this week's mailbag episode, JJ talks about what he looks for in ambigous backfields, how he manages early-season breakouts, the importance of depth charts, and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha.
J J Zacher reson.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everyone?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney fourteen of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for
tuning in. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off
Week one. Head over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and
get rewarded with one DFS ticket for Week one and
(00:32):
play free for your shot at a share of millions.
The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit,
but make sure you sign up with promo code Late
Round Today. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler eight seven
seven eight Hope end Wiretex Hope NY to four six
seven three six nine in New York. Help is available
from Problem Gambling Call eight eight eight seventy nine seven
seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connecticut eighteen
(00:56):
plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibili
restrictions apply. A void were prohibited one per customer, minimum
five dollars deposit, require ticket rewards or site credits only
valid for use on eligible DFS Contest. Ticket rewards are
single use and expire nine to eight to twenty five
at eight to twenty pm Eastern. See terms at DraftKings
dot com Slash promotions sponsored by DraftKings. It's a mailbag episode.
(01:18):
Let's get to it. The first question this week is
from Jamie on Patreon. It says, what are the biggest
questions you're hoping to find answers to in Week one?
Backfields are always the most interesting thing to watch for me,
at least in Week one, because, as I always say,
the way backfields are split just comes down to a
coaching decision, and we don't exactly know how coaches are
(01:39):
thinking this time of year throughout the off season. Whereas
a wide receiver talent can find its way to targets
because multiple wide receivers are on the field at once,
typically we only have one running back. So I'm really
interested to see certain backfield splits. I think the Jets
are interesting given what we've heard about Braylan Allen over
the last couple of months. Yes, I mentioned to see
(02:01):
how Pittsburgh in that same game, how they deploy their backfield.
Jacksonville's going to be interesting, even Houston. There are a
ton of backfields that I'm interested in seeing this week,
and then there's obviously rookies. I'm always curious to see
how those rookies look in week one. It's hard to
answer this with just one or two specific things. All
(02:23):
summer long, we're trying to answer hundreds of questions, but
some of those answers they will be revealed here in
week one, and I can't wait. This best question from
Twitter is from at Ben Underscore Cumberledge. It says you
had Rodriguez as a by candidate on this week's fifteen
Transactions episode. How does the McNichols being listed as the
(02:45):
RB two on the depth chart impact your outlook on
the commander's backfield in the short and long term, assuming
that it has any bearing for you. So, just to
be clear, he's not a buye, he's an ad, which
is very different. I know this seems like semantics, but
it's actually not. One is free or at costa roster spot,
(03:05):
while the other you're trading away a valuable asset to
get that player. And I don't think we're there right
now with Chris Rodriguez. But I got literally ten plus
questions this week about depth charts, not even an exaggeration
you can head to the Patreon and just look at.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
The mailbag thread.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
There are multiple questions about these depth charts, and I'm
here to tell you they don't matter. I don't care
whatsoever about depth charts. I care zero percent about them.
Maybe like one or two percent. But there is no
chance that Traveon Henderson, as long as he's healthy, will
be the number three running back in New England this year,
(03:44):
that Antonio Gibson will see more touches than Traveon Henderson.
If that happens, then the Patriots are the most inept
organization on planet Earth. Now, maybe you want to use
depth charts as a high level understanding of how a
team is going to deploy a player. Sometimes you'll see
guys listened as a slot wide receiver. That's not nothing,
(04:04):
but we generally already know that information anyway. I don't
think we're about to see Jeremy McNichols see the second
most touches in the Washington backfield. Instead of relying on
the depth chart, just rely on the information that you
know about these players. McNichols is more of a backup
to Eckler, given how he's been deployed in the past.
Chris Rodriguez and Bill Krosky Merritt. Those two are going
(04:27):
to battle for more early down work. Ignore depth charts,
go with your own talent evaluation. That's the message here.
This beast question from twitters from at GUJ Tugman. It says,
can you talk about how to approach drafting ambiguous backfield situations?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Do one of.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Adp age or projected role early down versus third down
back hold higher importance? Do you ever draft both backs
in those backfields? So I actually had a few questions
about this one too, So let's get into it. As
you guys know, I've been talking about ambig as backfields
for years. Long ago, I realized that the running backs
who emerge most frequently in fantasy football they come from
(05:07):
more up in the air situations. They're not usually just
straight handcuffs. They don't usually have like top twelve, top
eighteen running backs in their backfield. They're usually in these
backfields where we have no idea who the starter is.
And the reason they're valuable is because a player can
emerge from those backfields, and when they do, they become
(05:27):
huge draft day values because their costs were down. Fantasy
managers will push them down draft boards because these managers
saying to themselves, I don't know who the best player
in this backfield actually is. I'm not gonna draft him
because I don't know how much work he's gonna see. Now,
something that gets asked pretty frequently, and it's asked in
this question is about stacking ambiguous backfields. Why not just
(05:50):
draft the entire Jacksonville backfield this year, because.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Then you know that you're capturing the player who ends
up emerging.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Well, that's exactly the problem you as backfields don't have
a running back who emerges. It doesn't make them bad bets.
It doesn't mean that you should avoid those backfields because
there's still the type of environment that you want to
target versus the alternative. It's just that we don't see
like loads and loads of league winning running backs every year,
(06:18):
so the odds that you've picked the exact right backfield
are pretty slim. So I would much rather throw darts
at multiple backfields in order to improve my chances of
finding the backfield that ends up producing a super relevant
running back. And I can increase my odds in finding
who that player is or which one to target. But
just look at the other average draft position trends and
(06:39):
archetype trends that I talk about in the late round
draft guide. You typically want younger players. It doesn't mean
you simply just get the youngest guy in one of
these ambiguous backfields. And actually certain ages, like year two
running backs, they've been better than rookies in the middle
rounds over the last ten or so years. But I'm
typically not going to buy into like a twenty nine
(06:59):
thirty year old running.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Back at a high clip.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
However, I will lean into those players if they have
a good pass catching backbone. Like with Minnesota this offseason,
I've felt better about Aaron Jones than Jordan Mason, despite
Mason being the younger back, and that it has to
do with the fact that Jones is a really good
pass catcher. Jordan Mason, he has a lot of question
marks there. Now. I totally get the upside of Mason.
(07:23):
I think there's a chance that he sees more work
on the ground than Aaron Jones this year, but pass
catching is the key that unlocks.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Fantasy upside at running back.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I leaned into Jalen Warren over Caleb Johnson for the
exact same reasons I didn't fade Mason or Johnson, But
I preferred the pass catching back or the player we
think is going to catch more passes because we have
loads of data suggesting that that's the route that we
should go in. But like in the end, I'm looking
at what we know versus what we don't know. I'll
(07:52):
often lean into uncertainty when looking at which running back
to target, Like I've preferred base Shall Tuton at cost
over the other two running backs in Jacksonville this offseason,
because I do think he has the most upside. But look,
me being into bay Shall Tutan doesn't mean that I'm
totally fading Travis Etn and Tank Bigsby. Now, I know
some of you only play in one or two leagues
(08:13):
and you have to make that choice. And if I
had to make that choice, I would say I would
just get bay Shall Tutan and not those two other backs.
But when you're in a lot of leagues or you're
giving a lot of advice like I do, I mean,
I'm doing like six podcast episodes a week, I want
to be open minded and explained to you guys how
I actually feel about these situations. And how I feel
is that, yes, I like Tuton most. But I don't
(08:35):
think Travis ETN or Tank Bigsby or Zeros at all.
They're part of a very attractive, ambiguous backfield. I just
have preferences, and that was Touton out of that one,
just because he was a good prospect.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
He's got a three down skill set.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
And it's not like Travis TN and Tank Bigsby are
currently can't miss players. But those are the things that
go through my mind when looking at these ambiguous backfields.
There's not like a formula that you just overlay on them.
Nothing is like that in fantasy football. There's no golden
key that unlocks everything. That's just not how this game works.
(09:10):
There's tons of nuance, but we do have to stay
grounded with what we know, and what we know first
and foremost is that pass catching is really really important
and still undervalued at the running back position. The nice
question from Clay on Patreon it says, I am an
underdog in Week one. Trevor Lawrence is my quarterback and
(09:32):
I need to find a tight end off waivers. Is
it optimal to stack Lawrence and Brenton Strange or should
I go with Chickaconquo, who you have ranked higher? So Look,
I don't do start sick questions for the mailbag episode
because it would get incredibly obnoxious and really boring for
people who listen to the show. And this does seem
like a start sick question, but it's not. It's a
(09:53):
process question. First, just know that with any lower end
tight end decisions, you're really asking a question that has
tons and tons of variants. Any fantasy analyst who says
that a decision between Brenton Strange and Chickaconquo is obvious
or like ninety percent one way or the other, they're
a bad fantasy analyst. There's too much variance with lower
(10:13):
end players, let alone lower end players in week one
where we have such little information. There's too much variance
to be that confident. But I also want to answer
this question because ninety nine point nine percent of you
play on sites where there's a projection for your matchup,
and that projection it might influence how you approach your
lineup decisions unless it's glaringly obvious, unless you're facing just
(10:38):
a monster of a team and your team sucks, you
don't need to force a suboptimal play in order to
add variance to your team like this.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Tight end question.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
There's enough variance to where I could easily go either direction.
I mean, let's just be honest here. If you want
to stack Trevor Lawrence because you want higher upside in
your lineup, I don't think that's a bad process call
at all. I'm talking like avoiding certain quarterbacks in your
lineup because your opponent has their pass catchers, and then
you being suboptimal as a result. You're overthinking a fifty
(11:10):
to fifty game. Fantasy football is a fifty to fifty game.
You're playing one opponent. You don't need to treat it
like a tournament, So without knowing the matchup, I can't
tell you what's optimal. What I can tell you is
that in week one it's important to not be overconfident
in your decisions because we just don't have that much information,
(11:31):
and the people building the projections on all those platforms
they don't have that information either. This last question is
from Trevor on Patreon. It says, hi, JJ, thanks for
all the help through another draft season. I feel great
following the advice chasing ceiling in the later rounds, taking
players like rookies or ambiguous backfield running backs who could
pay off later in the season, awesome, But week one
(11:54):
some undrafted players are gonna pop off and they could
potentially be league winners as well. Do you have any
guidance on deciding between drafted players with potential late breakouts
versus undrafted players who show out early. What's the balance
between being patient versus holding onto your priors too long?
So I kind of spoke about this last week, but
(12:16):
I think I can get a little bit more detailed here.
I think you have to remember that in fantasy football,
you don't need to exactly predict the insane breakout. You
just need to like a player a little bit more
than the rest of your league mates. A good and
easy go to with this is with Pukin Akua. Now,
Nakua was a late round dart throw in the draft
guide during his rookie season. Before he did anything. I
(12:38):
had him as a late round dart throw. He then
went out in Week one and he dominated, like he
absolutely crushed. I remember vividly talking on this podcast and
telling people to be aggressive in getting him if he
was still on the waiver wire. Now, I'm not saying
this to pat myself on the back. I get things right,
I get things wrong. That just happened to be one
of the best calls of my career. I'm saying this
(13:01):
because there were so many layers of that transaction and
it's just a really really good example. First, with Nikuah,
there was a backbone when a player goes off in
week one or early on in the season and it
was seriously out of nowhere. That's somewhat of a red flag.
Nikuah was kind of out of nowhere, but it also
kind of wasn't.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
There was a reason he was a dart throw in.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
The draft guy that year. There was a lot of
hype surrounding him out of Rams camp. He was an
interesting prospect. Nikua's Week one performance as a rookie wasn't
anything like Kevin Ogletree in Week one of the twenty
twelve season. Some of you might not even know who
Kevin Ogletree is, but that year he came out for Dallas.
He went eight for one hundred and fourteen and two
(13:44):
touchdowns in the first game of the season. He scored
two more times through the rest of the year, and
he got to fifty yards just twice. Ogletree, at that
time was a four year player in the NFL. He'd
done nothing like that before. There was no reason to
blindly bind this idea that he was going to be
a star for Pukinakua. It was his first NFL game,
(14:09):
and his peripherals were awesome. The answer I gave last
week on what to watch out for was usage. You
don't want to buy into a player who just had
good production. You need that production to be backed by
good usage too, good peripherals. Now, sometimes production can lead
to better usage, but when it's the total package, that's
(14:30):
when you know you can kind of go all in.
And like I said at the start of this answer,
you don't need to exactly predict the breakout. We need
to get that idea out of our heads. There's this
idea out there that data people they can't at all
predict outliers. Guess what, neither can a regular person who's
just watching film. No one can predict outliers. They're outliers
(14:52):
for a reason. That's exactly what outlier means.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
They're unpredictable.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
But you can still obtain that outlier by simply liking
a player a little bit more than the rest of
your league mates do. Never in a million years did
I think Puka Akua was gonna be this good. Neither
did anyone else on planet Earth, maybe aside from Nakua
and his family. But I didn't need to predict that
in order to win Nakua off the waiver wire or
(15:20):
to draft him. Like the same thing is going on
right now in our drafts and the late round dart
throws that we threw right I drafted Tory Horton. I
like Tory Horton, I like base Shall Tuton. The odds
that those players become fantasy football superstars, the odds are slim.
They're very slim. And I'm recognizing that right now. If
(15:42):
Tory Horton and base Shall Tutin end up being amazing
fantasy assets, I am not predicting that to happen. I
just like their odds more than the players who are
being drafted around them, and I like their odds of
being good more than my league mates do. That's the difference.
No one needs to predict the outlier, and it's so
(16:04):
important to wrap your head around that concept. So it's
mixing all that kind of analysis and doing the same
thing with players on your own roster. Right when you're
thinking about adding or dropping a player, dropping players.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Is not easy.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
You're gonna regret some of your drops. That's fantasy football.
But if you're rational, if you're logical, and you're doing
things with a sound process, you'll make good moves far
more often than bad ones. And think about a player's backbone,
who he is as a player, his journey in the league,
how he was deployed during that breakout. It's gonna help
(16:37):
you make a better decision with your roster. I guarantee it.
That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you
for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it
pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and if follow
me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Thanks for listening everyone. There's a Late Round Perspectives episode
(16:57):
that's gonna hit the podcast feed later today and then
tomorrow you'll hear the audio version of the Late Round
Fantasy Football Show. Thanks for listening, greatly appreciate it. Enjoy
football this weekend.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha.
J J Zacher reson.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everyone?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney fourteen of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for
tuning in. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off
Week one. Head over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and
get rewarded with one DFS ticket for Week one and
(00:32):
play free for your shot at a share of millions.
The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit,
but make sure you sign up with promo code Late
Round Today. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler eight seven
seven eight Hope end Wiretex Hope NY to four six
seven three six nine in New York. Help is available
from Problem Gambling Call eight eight eight seventy nine seven
seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connecticut eighteen
(00:56):
plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibili
restrictions apply. A void were prohibited one per customer, minimum
five dollars deposit, require ticket rewards or site credits only
valid for use on eligible DFS Contest. Ticket rewards are
single use and expire nine to eight to twenty five
at eight to twenty pm Eastern. See terms at DraftKings
dot com Slash promotions sponsored by DraftKings. It's a mailbag episode.
(01:18):
Let's get to it. The first question this week is
from Jamie on Patreon. It says, what are the biggest
questions you're hoping to find answers to in Week one?
Backfields are always the most interesting thing to watch for me,
at least in Week one, because, as I always say,
the way backfields are split just comes down to a
coaching decision, and we don't exactly know how coaches are
(01:39):
thinking this time of year throughout the off season. Whereas
a wide receiver talent can find its way to targets
because multiple wide receivers are on the field at once,
typically we only have one running back. So I'm really
interested to see certain backfield splits. I think the Jets
are interesting given what we've heard about Braylan Allen over
the last couple of months. Yes, I mentioned to see
(02:01):
how Pittsburgh in that same game, how they deploy their backfield.
Jacksonville's going to be interesting, even Houston. There are a
ton of backfields that I'm interested in seeing this week,
and then there's obviously rookies. I'm always curious to see
how those rookies look in week one. It's hard to
answer this with just one or two specific things. All
(02:23):
summer long, we're trying to answer hundreds of questions, but
some of those answers they will be revealed here in
week one, and I can't wait. This best question from
Twitter is from at Ben Underscore Cumberledge. It says you
had Rodriguez as a by candidate on this week's fifteen
Transactions episode. How does the McNichols being listed as the
(02:45):
RB two on the depth chart impact your outlook on
the commander's backfield in the short and long term, assuming
that it has any bearing for you. So, just to
be clear, he's not a buye, he's an ad, which
is very different. I know this seems like semantics, but
it's actually not. One is free or at costa roster spot,
(03:05):
while the other you're trading away a valuable asset to
get that player. And I don't think we're there right
now with Chris Rodriguez. But I got literally ten plus
questions this week about depth charts, not even an exaggeration
you can head to the Patreon and just look at.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
The mailbag thread.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
There are multiple questions about these depth charts, and I'm
here to tell you they don't matter. I don't care
whatsoever about depth charts. I care zero percent about them.
Maybe like one or two percent. But there is no
chance that Traveon Henderson, as long as he's healthy, will
be the number three running back in New England this year,
(03:44):
that Antonio Gibson will see more touches than Traveon Henderson.
If that happens, then the Patriots are the most inept
organization on planet Earth. Now, maybe you want to use
depth charts as a high level understanding of how a
team is going to deploy a player. Sometimes you'll see
guys listened as a slot wide receiver. That's not nothing,
(04:04):
but we generally already know that information anyway. I don't
think we're about to see Jeremy McNichols see the second
most touches in the Washington backfield. Instead of relying on
the depth chart, just rely on the information that you
know about these players. McNichols is more of a backup
to Eckler, given how he's been deployed in the past.
Chris Rodriguez and Bill Krosky Merritt. Those two are going
(04:27):
to battle for more early down work. Ignore depth charts,
go with your own talent evaluation. That's the message here.
This beast question from twitters from at GUJ Tugman. It says,
can you talk about how to approach drafting ambiguous backfield situations?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Do one of.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Adp age or projected role early down versus third down
back hold higher importance? Do you ever draft both backs
in those backfields? So I actually had a few questions
about this one too, So let's get into it. As
you guys know, I've been talking about ambig as backfields
for years. Long ago, I realized that the running backs
who emerge most frequently in fantasy football they come from
(05:07):
more up in the air situations. They're not usually just
straight handcuffs. They don't usually have like top twelve, top
eighteen running backs in their backfield. They're usually in these
backfields where we have no idea who the starter is.
And the reason they're valuable is because a player can
emerge from those backfields, and when they do, they become
(05:27):
huge draft day values because their costs were down. Fantasy
managers will push them down draft boards because these managers
saying to themselves, I don't know who the best player
in this backfield actually is. I'm not gonna draft him
because I don't know how much work he's gonna see. Now,
something that gets asked pretty frequently, and it's asked in
this question is about stacking ambiguous backfields. Why not just
(05:50):
draft the entire Jacksonville backfield this year, because.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Then you know that you're capturing the player who ends
up emerging.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Well, that's exactly the problem you as backfields don't have
a running back who emerges. It doesn't make them bad bets.
It doesn't mean that you should avoid those backfields because
there's still the type of environment that you want to
target versus the alternative. It's just that we don't see
like loads and loads of league winning running backs every year,
(06:18):
so the odds that you've picked the exact right backfield
are pretty slim. So I would much rather throw darts
at multiple backfields in order to improve my chances of
finding the backfield that ends up producing a super relevant
running back. And I can increase my odds in finding
who that player is or which one to target. But
just look at the other average draft position trends and
(06:39):
archetype trends that I talk about in the late round
draft guide. You typically want younger players. It doesn't mean
you simply just get the youngest guy in one of
these ambiguous backfields. And actually certain ages, like year two
running backs, they've been better than rookies in the middle
rounds over the last ten or so years. But I'm
typically not going to buy into like a twenty nine
(06:59):
thirty year old running.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Back at a high clip.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
However, I will lean into those players if they have
a good pass catching backbone. Like with Minnesota this offseason,
I've felt better about Aaron Jones than Jordan Mason, despite
Mason being the younger back, and that it has to
do with the fact that Jones is a really good
pass catcher. Jordan Mason, he has a lot of question
marks there. Now. I totally get the upside of Mason.
(07:23):
I think there's a chance that he sees more work
on the ground than Aaron Jones this year, but pass
catching is the key that unlocks.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Fantasy upside at running back.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I leaned into Jalen Warren over Caleb Johnson for the
exact same reasons I didn't fade Mason or Johnson, But
I preferred the pass catching back or the player we
think is going to catch more passes because we have
loads of data suggesting that that's the route that we
should go in. But like in the end, I'm looking
at what we know versus what we don't know. I'll
(07:52):
often lean into uncertainty when looking at which running back
to target, Like I've preferred base Shall Tuton at cost
over the other two running backs in Jacksonville this offseason,
because I do think he has the most upside. But look,
me being into bay Shall Tutan doesn't mean that I'm
totally fading Travis Etn and Tank Bigsby. Now, I know
some of you only play in one or two leagues
(08:13):
and you have to make that choice. And if I
had to make that choice, I would say I would
just get bay Shall Tutan and not those two other backs.
But when you're in a lot of leagues or you're
giving a lot of advice like I do, I mean,
I'm doing like six podcast episodes a week, I want
to be open minded and explained to you guys how
I actually feel about these situations. And how I feel
is that, yes, I like Tuton most. But I don't
(08:35):
think Travis ETN or Tank Bigsby or Zeros at all.
They're part of a very attractive, ambiguous backfield. I just
have preferences, and that was Touton out of that one,
just because he was a good prospect.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
He's got a three down skill set.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
And it's not like Travis TN and Tank Bigsby are
currently can't miss players. But those are the things that
go through my mind when looking at these ambiguous backfields.
There's not like a formula that you just overlay on them.
Nothing is like that in fantasy football. There's no golden
key that unlocks everything. That's just not how this game works.
(09:10):
There's tons of nuance, but we do have to stay
grounded with what we know, and what we know first
and foremost is that pass catching is really really important
and still undervalued at the running back position. The nice
question from Clay on Patreon it says, I am an
underdog in Week one. Trevor Lawrence is my quarterback and
(09:32):
I need to find a tight end off waivers. Is
it optimal to stack Lawrence and Brenton Strange or should
I go with Chickaconquo, who you have ranked higher? So Look,
I don't do start sick questions for the mailbag episode
because it would get incredibly obnoxious and really boring for
people who listen to the show. And this does seem
like a start sick question, but it's not. It's a
(09:53):
process question. First, just know that with any lower end
tight end decisions, you're really asking a question that has
tons and tons of variants. Any fantasy analyst who says
that a decision between Brenton Strange and Chickaconquo is obvious
or like ninety percent one way or the other, they're
a bad fantasy analyst. There's too much variance with lower
(10:13):
end players, let alone lower end players in week one
where we have such little information. There's too much variance
to be that confident. But I also want to answer
this question because ninety nine point nine percent of you
play on sites where there's a projection for your matchup,
and that projection it might influence how you approach your
lineup decisions unless it's glaringly obvious, unless you're facing just
(10:38):
a monster of a team and your team sucks, you
don't need to force a suboptimal play in order to
add variance to your team like this.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Tight end question.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
There's enough variance to where I could easily go either direction.
I mean, let's just be honest here. If you want
to stack Trevor Lawrence because you want higher upside in
your lineup, I don't think that's a bad process call
at all. I'm talking like avoiding certain quarterbacks in your
lineup because your opponent has their pass catchers, and then
you being suboptimal as a result. You're overthinking a fifty
(11:10):
to fifty game. Fantasy football is a fifty to fifty game.
You're playing one opponent. You don't need to treat it
like a tournament, So without knowing the matchup, I can't
tell you what's optimal. What I can tell you is
that in week one it's important to not be overconfident
in your decisions because we just don't have that much information,
(11:31):
and the people building the projections on all those platforms
they don't have that information either. This last question is
from Trevor on Patreon. It says, hi, JJ, thanks for
all the help through another draft season. I feel great
following the advice chasing ceiling in the later rounds, taking
players like rookies or ambiguous backfield running backs who could
pay off later in the season, awesome, But week one
(11:54):
some undrafted players are gonna pop off and they could
potentially be league winners as well. Do you have any
guidance on deciding between drafted players with potential late breakouts
versus undrafted players who show out early. What's the balance
between being patient versus holding onto your priors too long?
So I kind of spoke about this last week, but
(12:16):
I think I can get a little bit more detailed here.
I think you have to remember that in fantasy football,
you don't need to exactly predict the insane breakout. You
just need to like a player a little bit more
than the rest of your league mates. A good and
easy go to with this is with Pukin Akua. Now,
Nakua was a late round dart throw in the draft
guide during his rookie season. Before he did anything. I
(12:38):
had him as a late round dart throw. He then
went out in Week one and he dominated, like he
absolutely crushed. I remember vividly talking on this podcast and
telling people to be aggressive in getting him if he
was still on the waiver wire. Now, I'm not saying
this to pat myself on the back. I get things right,
I get things wrong. That just happened to be one
of the best calls of my career. I'm saying this
(13:01):
because there were so many layers of that transaction and
it's just a really really good example. First, with Nikuah,
there was a backbone when a player goes off in
week one or early on in the season and it
was seriously out of nowhere. That's somewhat of a red flag.
Nikuah was kind of out of nowhere, but it also
kind of wasn't.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
There was a reason he was a dart throw in.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
The draft guy that year. There was a lot of
hype surrounding him out of Rams camp. He was an
interesting prospect. Nikua's Week one performance as a rookie wasn't
anything like Kevin Ogletree in Week one of the twenty
twelve season. Some of you might not even know who
Kevin Ogletree is, but that year he came out for Dallas.
He went eight for one hundred and fourteen and two
(13:44):
touchdowns in the first game of the season. He scored
two more times through the rest of the year, and
he got to fifty yards just twice. Ogletree, at that
time was a four year player in the NFL. He'd
done nothing like that before. There was no reason to
blindly bind this idea that he was going to be
a star for Pukinakua. It was his first NFL game,
(14:09):
and his peripherals were awesome. The answer I gave last
week on what to watch out for was usage. You
don't want to buy into a player who just had
good production. You need that production to be backed by
good usage too, good peripherals. Now, sometimes production can lead
to better usage, but when it's the total package, that's
(14:30):
when you know you can kind of go all in.
And like I said at the start of this answer,
you don't need to exactly predict the breakout. We need
to get that idea out of our heads. There's this
idea out there that data people they can't at all
predict outliers. Guess what, neither can a regular person who's
just watching film. No one can predict outliers. They're outliers
(14:52):
for a reason. That's exactly what outlier means.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
They're unpredictable.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
But you can still obtain that outlier by simply liking
a player a little bit more than the rest of
your league mates do. Never in a million years did
I think Puka Akua was gonna be this good. Neither
did anyone else on planet Earth, maybe aside from Nakua
and his family. But I didn't need to predict that
in order to win Nakua off the waiver wire or
(15:20):
to draft him. Like the same thing is going on
right now in our drafts and the late round dart
throws that we threw right I drafted Tory Horton. I
like Tory Horton, I like base Shall Tuton. The odds
that those players become fantasy football superstars, the odds are slim.
They're very slim. And I'm recognizing that right now. If
(15:42):
Tory Horton and base Shall Tutin end up being amazing
fantasy assets, I am not predicting that to happen. I
just like their odds more than the players who are
being drafted around them, and I like their odds of
being good more than my league mates do. That's the difference.
No one needs to predict the outlier, and it's so
(16:04):
important to wrap your head around that concept. So it's
mixing all that kind of analysis and doing the same
thing with players on your own roster. Right when you're
thinking about adding or dropping a player, dropping players.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Is not easy.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
You're gonna regret some of your drops. That's fantasy football.
But if you're rational, if you're logical, and you're doing
things with a sound process, you'll make good moves far
more often than bad ones. And think about a player's backbone,
who he is as a player, his journey in the league,
how he was deployed during that breakout. It's gonna help
(16:37):
you make a better decision with your roster. I guarantee it.
That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you
for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it
pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and if follow
me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Thanks for listening everyone. There's a Late Round Perspectives episode
(16:57):
that's gonna hit the podcast feed later today and then
tomorrow you'll hear the audio version of the Late Round
Fantasy Football Show. Thanks for listening, greatly appreciate it. Enjoy
football this weekend.
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