September 9, 2025 • 21 mins
Can you trust Travis Kelce as a high-end TE1? Which rookie wide receiver does JJ think is a low-key good add off the wire this week? Is Jaydon Blue a drop? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's 15 Transactions epiosde.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherasa.
Hey je zacher reson.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
What's up everyone?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney fifteen of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first deposit of five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight
seven to seven eight Hope n y in Connecticut called
eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen
plus and most stage eligibility restrictions apply ends December thirty
first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. It's
a fifteen transactions episode. We've got a lot of moves
to make before Week two hits, so let's do it.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Add Hollywood Brown.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
So the Chiefs are kind of weak at wide receiver, right,
Now Xavier Worthy has a shoulder injury that he's dealing with.
Rashi Rice he suspended for the first six games of
the season. Well, now he's suspended for five more games.
So Kansas City's gonna have to rely on Hollywood Brown
and that's exactly what they did. In Week one against
the Chargers, he had a forty two percent target share.
(01:30):
He caught ten of sixteen targets for ninety nine yards. Now,
he's not going to maintain that type of volume, but
he was very clearly the top target in this offense
one Xavier Worthy went down. And another thing to note
here is that according to Pro Football Focus, Hollywood Brown
ran fifty two percent of his routes from the slot
in that game against LA He's never finished the season
with at least eight games played with a slot rate
(01:51):
above forty percent. That's the role that we've seen Rashie
Rice thrive in in this offense. Now, Brown probably won't
be a winner across the entire season because eventually Rashi
Rice will be back and eventually, hopefully, cross our fingers,
Xavier Worthy is fine too, but we could get some
short term production from Brown. That's why you need to
(02:12):
add him. Off the wire this week, sell Travis Kelcey. Now, look,
it's no secret I wasn't very high on Travis Kelcey
entering the season, and then in Week one.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
He had a usable performance.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
He had that long touchdown against the Chargers, and you
might be wondering, was Xavier Worthy injured, Rashi Rice suspended?
Why would we trade away Travis Kelcey. Well, the idea
here is that the market's more bullish on Kelsey than
I am, because the market understands that those pass catchers
they're not available. And while he might see a target
share bump, I'm still concerned. Kelsey finished Week one with
(02:49):
those guys not in the lineup with a ten and
a half percent target share. It was the first time
that he was below an eleven percent target shair in
a game since Week three of twenty seventeen. So even
without Rashi Rice, even without Xavier Worthy, he still couldn't
see a high target share against the Chargers. And it'd
be one thing if this were prime Travis Kelcey, but
(03:10):
he's gonna be thirty six years old. In October, he
saw his yards per rout run rate, his yards after
the catch per catch rate.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
They both fell last year.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Maybe he can get by on volume, But what happens
when this wide receiver room looks better and healthier? Because
his stat line looked fine, I think now's an opportunity
to get something out of Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Hold Jaden Blue.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So I took plenty of l's last week, especially within
this podcast this episode, but Jaden Blue might be the
biggest L of all. Last week I mentioned that Jaden
Blue was rostered in forty percent of Yahoo leagues, and
I said that it should be closer to eighty percent.
And then the Cowboys in Week one made him a
surprise healthy scratch. So I look like an idiot, But
(03:58):
when I take a step back, I'm not that surprised
that all of that went down. He's a Day three
running back and he missed a lot of camp due
to injury. I didn't think that he would be a
healthy scratch, But in hindsight, I don't think it was
completely unpredictable. Now, about a quarter of the managers who
drafted Jayden Blue they've dropped him now, and I'm sure
more are going to be doing the same. But don't
(04:20):
be one of those managers. Javonte Williams he saw a
bell cow workload in Week one for Dallas. He did
nothing to ruin that in the short term. Some see
Williams as an obvious cell. I think he's more of
a hold. But look at Miles Sanders. What did Miles
Sanders provide for this Cowboys offense. He got caught from
behind on a breakaway run that was his only successful
(04:42):
run by EPA, and he fumbled the ball away during
a crucial point in the game. We have years of
recent data pointing to Miles Sanders not being a very
trustworthy running back, even if things don't come to fruition
for Jayden Blue this year. This is the exact type
of stash that you on your bench in season long leagues.
He's a rookie, so there's the unknown in this uncertain upside,
(05:05):
and he brings an element to that backfield that doesn't
currently exist, which is the shiftiness in speed. So I
would keep blueing my roster and if he was dropped
in your league, I think he's a great end of
bench stash.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Add Kaishan Booty.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So when Kaishan Booty came out, does that model actually
liked him quite a bit. He was a Day three prospect,
but versus where he was drafted, the model.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Did like him. Some of you might remember that.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Now, Booty's NFL production through the first two seasons of
his career has been kind of booty, But he had
a really solid Week one, and I think that's noteworthy
given all the changes that this Patriots team has seen
year over year. He ended Week one against the Raiders
with six catches for one hundred and three yards on
an eighteen percent target shair He was top twenty in
(05:53):
air yard share across the wide receiver position across the league. Now,
keep in mind Booty's still only twenty three years old.
He entered the NFL early, so after that performance, I
wouldn't want to keep him on the waiver wire in
most twelve team leagues. By Chris alave So. The Saints
may have a quarterback problem, just a long term quarterback problem.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
But one of the.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Things to love about this offense, this is what I
talked about during the offseason, is pace. Kellen Moore was
an offensive coordinator in the NFL for five seasons before
taking this head coaching gig.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
In those campaigns, his.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Team's never finished the season with fewer than sixty five
plays per game. For contexts, last year, the average team
ran sixty two point two plays per game after Sunday's
games were over, No team in football ran at a
faster pace than the New Orleans Saints, and that translated
to more passing volume. Spencer Ratler had forty six pass attempts.
(06:52):
The highest pass attempt tally for Saints quarterback last year
was forty two. This is really good news for the
pass catchers, specific Chris Alave. He saw absurdly good peripherals
against the Cardinals. He had a thirty one point seven
percent target share. Now his seven point seven averaged up
of target that wasn't great, but he could be a
PPR machine in this offense. So if the Alave manager
(07:16):
they're looking at that seven catch fifty four yard line
and they're seeing nothing special, you might be able to
get in before a bigger performance inevitably hits. And it
helps that the Saints play in a division where we
could see some good offensive performances.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Add Juwan Johnson.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
So Chris Alave is not the only Saints player that
you should be going after this week. Juwan Johnson definitely
needs to be added off the waiver wire pre Monday
Night Football. Only Trey McBride as a higher route participation
rate than Juwan Johnson At tight end. He ran around
on ninety six percent in New Orleans dropbacks. That translated
into a twenty six point eight percent target share and
(07:55):
fifteen point six PPR points. Like I just said, New
Orleans runs at a fast pace, there could be a
lot of passing volume in this offense this season. You
cannot leave Juwan Johnson on the waiver wire, especially if
you need some tight end help. Ad Cedric Tillman. So
last week on the Late Round Fantasy Football show, if
(08:17):
you listen to that, it's in the podcast feed now.
But if you listen to that, or maybe you watch
it over on YouTube, I went over some look ahead
waiver wire ads and one of those ads was Cedric
Tillman and here we are.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
The Browns traded.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
A Mariy Cooper after Week six last year. That allowed
Tilman to step in and get more work in that offense.
He then completed four games before his season ending injury.
In those games, he scored eighteen twenty nine, twenty and
eight PPR points. That was an eighteen point six PPR
points per game average, and it was on a twenty
(08:50):
two percent target chair per game rate. Meanwhile, during those
exact same games, Jerry Judy, his teammate, scored three, thirteen, fourteen,
and twenty six PPR points. He averaged fourteen point one
PPR points per game. His target chair per game was
just below twenty percent. In Week one, Tilman and Judy
(09:11):
played the same number of snaps, they ran the same
number of routes, and they saw the same number of targets.
Tilman scored sixteen point two PPR points, Jerry Judy eleven
point six. Let me put all this another way. Since
Amari Cooper left Cleveland, Cedric Tillman has completed five games
with Jerry Judy. Tilman's target share has been higher, and
(09:31):
he's outscored Jerry Judy and four of those five contests.
This really is a continuation of how I felt about
Jerry Judy over the offseason. I thought that he was
overrated and Tilman a little bit underrated, And I think
Week one just emphasized that even more. Now. The Browns
an't gonna face the Bengals every single week. That's a
beatable defense. But listen to their upcoming schedule over their
(09:54):
next five games, they get the Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings,
and Steelers. Those are bound to be some heavy scripts.
And then after that stretch they get a Dolphins defense
that was just man handled by Daniel Jones. If Cedric
Tillman is out there, he's a priority off the waiver wire.
Ad Harold Fannin. So since we're talking about the Cleveland Browns,
(10:17):
a shift our focus to the tight end position and
rookie Harold Fannon.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
His first game was awesome.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
He ended up catching seven of nine targets for thirteen
point six PPR points and he had a twenty one
point six percent target share. Now, I would be surprised
if Fannon finishes twenty twenty five as a tight end
one in fantasy. I like Harold Fannon a lot. I
liked him as a prospect. I even met his mom
over the summer, and she's awesome. I want Harold Fannin
(10:43):
to crush it in the NFL, But David and Joku
is still there. And then Joku ran nine more routes
than Harold Fannon in Week one. It's just that most
of the looks ended up going Fannin's way. Now, with
that being said, Kevin Stefanski likes twelve personnel. He will
use two tight end sets frequently, and we saw that
in Week one. So I do think Fannin is a
(11:04):
very usable piece. And there is that contingent upside if
David and Joku were to go down or really any
other injury in that offense to the pass catchers. And
as I mentioned with Cedric Tillman, Cleveland had some pass
heavy scripts upcoming that should help on the volume front.
Add Dylan Samson, so we'll go one more Cleveland Brown now.
(11:25):
During the summer, my rankings like Dylan Samson more than
both Quinchawn Judkins and Jerome Ford. With that being said
pre Week one, as we entered that Week one game,
I thought the Browns were gonna use Jerome Ford more
than they did. That was wrong advice on my end.
We watched Dylan Sampson see a nineteen percent target chair
and he scored seventeen point three PPR points. The crazy
(11:48):
thing about Samson's usage in that game was that Ford
actually played eight more snaps, he ran eleven more routes
than Samson, but when Samson was on the field, they
were just straight up feeding him. He's still out there
in over half of Yahoo leagues, so I have to
shout him out as a result. I know Quinn Shawn
Judkins is set to return, but I don't think Dylan
(12:09):
Sampson's gonna just go away, So I would be holding
on to him or adding him if he's out there.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Sell Deebo Samuel. So look, Terry McLaurin held out.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
We knew he was going to start the season off slow,
and that's what we saw in Week one. He had
a thirteen point eight percent target chair. He was lower
than that mark just once last year. Now Deebo Samuel's
now in the mix. He's better competition than anything Terry
McLaurin faced last year. But the target discrepancy that we
saw in Week one between Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel,
(12:42):
that's not going to remain all season long. Samuel had
a thirty four point five percent target chair and scored
twenty two point six PPR points against the Giants. There's
absolutely nothing wrong with that. He had awesome usage and
he came through. But one slight problem was he did
score eight points on one play.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
It was a rush. So his receiving numbers were good,
just not great.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
This transaction is really just to say, if you can
truly sell high on this performance, maybe package Deebo Samuel
up with another player and move up to an elite
wide receiver who underperformed in Week one.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
You should go for that. You should do that.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
Samuel is not someone that you absolutely need to get
off of your roster, and I do like him in
this Cliff Kingsbury offense. It's just that might have been
his best usage that we're gonna see from him all year.
That's a very real possibility. After all, it's just the
sixth time that he's hit a thirty four percent target
chair in a game, and it's the first time that
he's gotten there since Week three of twenty twenty three.
(13:40):
Add Quinton Johnston. One of the biggest surprises of Week
one was undoubtedly Quinton Johnston. He's been labeled to bust
through his first two seasons in the league. He scored
almost twenty five PPERO points against the Chiefs with a
twenty one percent target chair. Now, the favorable case for
Johnston would be that he's a great red zone threat
in lad looks like they may be continuing their pass
(14:02):
heavier trend from the second portion of last year. They
were a lot more pass heavy last year when Justin
Herbert got healthy. According to NFELO, the Chargers that have
pass right over expected a plus fifteen percent against the Chiefs. Now,
that was surely driven a little bit by matchup, but
even still it was good to see. Now on the
other side of the argument for Quentin Johnson, the bad
(14:23):
side is competition. Lad McConkie and Keenan Allen each ran
a similar number of routes as QJ this past week.
You have to imagine that McConkie, at the very least
he's gonna earn the most targets on the team this year.
There's a cap ceiling inherently for Quentin Johnston. Now, I'd
still prefer both McConkie and Allen to Johnston, but after
this performance, you should still be intrigued off the waiver wire.
(14:45):
He's a former first round pick. I just wouldn't go
nuts throwing a bunch of free agent budget at him. Typically,
this type of profile doesn't turn into a league winner,
just more of a bye week.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
Fill in by time Tracy.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
If you want more of a high variance move this week,
you could look at Tyrone Tracy. Fantasy managers are likely
scared off of Tracy because Camp Scataboo. He's already getting
looks out of the backfield, and Devin Singletary he played
some snaps two and that might be really scared because
Tracy only scored five and a half PPR points against Washington.
Why would they want that? Well, here's the deal. Tracy
(15:22):
operated as a bell cow for the Giants in Week one.
He played about seventy four percent of the team's offensive snaps.
He had a fifteen percent target chair, He had two
thirds of the team's running back rushes. His usage was awesome.
If that continues, better production's gonna come. Since twenty eleven,
we've had over one hundred and forty instances where a
running back played at least eight games and saw at
(15:44):
least a sixty percent running back rush share and a
ten percent target share. Those numbers are a decent bit
below where Tracy was in Week one. Of those backs,
only eight of them finished outside the top twenty four
at the position. Only two of them were outside the
top thirty. This is obviously assuming that Tracy can maintain
his workload. That's far from a lock. But if he
(16:06):
does He's gonna have better outings than this one, and
I know that's a big if, but that's why this
is a riskier move to make. I just think that
right now he might be pretty cheap, so why not
take on that risk. Ad Calvin Austen Aaron Rodgers looked
competent in Week one. Calvin Austin. He was the number
two wide receiver for Pittsburgh. He ran around on eighty
(16:28):
eight percent of pittsburgh'sdropbacks. He scored seventeen p P points
on a twenty one percent target share. When new quarterbacks
are in the mix like this, I never want to
ignore a potential connection. Maybe Aaron Rodgers really likes Calvin Austin,
so look, the odds aren't in Calvin Austen's favor. I
wouldn't be super super aggressive in adding him off the
waiver wire, but I do think you should be looking
(16:50):
at him. Ad elck eyamanor The Tennessee Titans offense was
not amazing in Week one, but that was predictable. They
have a rookie quarterback. They were facing one of the
best defenses in football. This is where we need to
focus on peripherals. Calvin Ridley, he led that team and
snaps in routes run he had a thirty two percent
(17:10):
target chair. He only scored six point seven PPR points,
but he should be fine. I'd still be comfortable with
Calvin Ridley, but don't sleep on elk Iaman or either.
Iamanner was a really intriguing prospect who everyone thought was
going to be a Day two pick, and then he
ended up dropping and he went to the Titans on
Day three. In Week one, he operated as Tennessee's number
(17:32):
two wide receiver. He ran around on eighty two percent
of the team's dropbacks. He was top fifteen among all
wide receivers in air yard chair, and he also saw
a twenty eight percent target share. A rookie wide receiver
getting in to a twenty five percent target chair in
week one is not common. Since twenty eleven, it looks
like the only players to get there have been Pokinakua,
(17:53):
Will Fuller, Jamar Chase, Zey Flowers, Rashad Green, Taj Sharp,
dk Metcalf, Kyle Phillips, My Evans, and Lad McConkie. Now,
funny enough, there are two Day three wide receivers on
that list that came from Tennessee. But I can at
least tell you that the ZAP model it liked elick
Iamanner more than those players he was given a low
(18:14):
risk draft capital delta. In that model, the model liked
him a lot more versus where he was drafted. Strictly,
from a process standpoint, when a rookie shows us something,
let alone early on in the season, we should be
going after him on the waiver wire. Not a lot
of people are gonna be looking elk Iamanner's way because
he only scored three point three PPR points.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
But you should add the Seattle Seahawks defense.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Look, I think the Seahawks defense is good, and I
don't think fantasy managers are totally aware. They finished Week
one with the highest pressure rate in football. They pressured
Brock Purdy on over sixty percent of his dropbacks according
to next Gen Stats. This week they get Pittsburgh and
that game has a forty and a half point total,
and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he
was set four times on nine total pressures. And what
(19:03):
I like about Seattle is that you could use them
next week too, even if this week's not an ideal matchup,
even if it's just okay, next week they get New Orleans,
this could be a two week defense. So I was
sitting here, I was all finished with a fifteen transactions
episode in the newsletter, and then all of a sudden,
(19:25):
I see the news that Tank Bigsby is traded to
Philadelphia for a fifth and sixth round pick, and as
a result, we have the first bonus transaction of the season. Now, obviously,
Tank Bigsby becomes more of a handcuff to Saquon Barklay now,
but this Jacksonville Jaguars backfield, it opens up quite a bit.
Instead of a four headed monster that's what we saw
last week against Carolina, we're now down to three and
(19:48):
that makes this backfield a little bit clearer. Travis Etn
gets the biggest immediate bump, or at least he should
be able to maintain what he saw this past week
when he saw sixty four percent running back rush. Share
My guy bay Shall Tuton, who I love this summer,
is my favorite Jacksonville Jaguars target. He's someone that becomes
a more intriguing stash. I think he's gonna get a
(20:09):
little bit more work this week, and if he shows out,
he could just carve out a bigger and bigger role
in that backfield. If you guys recall the ZAP model
loved Bashall Tuton, but you.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Know who else is ZAT model liked Laquin Allen.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
He had arguably the best pass catching profile of any
running back in this year's draft class, and we already
saw him with a role in this Jags backfield. He
was on the field for eighty percent of their long
down and distance snaps against Carolina, that's according to Fantasy
Life data. And that's why this bonus transaction is to
add Laquent Allen. I probably should have gotten too that
earlier with ETN and Tuton rostered in a lot of
(20:45):
leagues already. Allen's a more traditional ad, especially in PPR formats,
but if base shall Tuton is available in your league,
I'd prefer him for upside purposes. That's it for today's show, though,
Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are messaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can
be found. You to follow me on Twitter and on
(21:05):
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends
Episode
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherasa.
Hey je zacher reson.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
What's up everyone?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney fifteen of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first deposit of five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight
seven to seven eight Hope n y in Connecticut called
eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen
plus and most stage eligibility restrictions apply ends December thirty
first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. It's
a fifteen transactions episode. We've got a lot of moves
to make before Week two hits, so let's do it.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Add Hollywood Brown.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
So the Chiefs are kind of weak at wide receiver, right,
Now Xavier Worthy has a shoulder injury that he's dealing with.
Rashi Rice he suspended for the first six games of
the season. Well, now he's suspended for five more games.
So Kansas City's gonna have to rely on Hollywood Brown
and that's exactly what they did. In Week one against
the Chargers, he had a forty two percent target share.
(01:30):
He caught ten of sixteen targets for ninety nine yards. Now,
he's not going to maintain that type of volume, but
he was very clearly the top target in this offense
one Xavier Worthy went down. And another thing to note
here is that according to Pro Football Focus, Hollywood Brown
ran fifty two percent of his routes from the slot
in that game against LA He's never finished the season
with at least eight games played with a slot rate
(01:51):
above forty percent. That's the role that we've seen Rashie
Rice thrive in in this offense. Now, Brown probably won't
be a winner across the entire season because eventually Rashi
Rice will be back and eventually, hopefully, cross our fingers,
Xavier Worthy is fine too, but we could get some
short term production from Brown. That's why you need to
(02:12):
add him. Off the wire this week, sell Travis Kelcey. Now, look,
it's no secret I wasn't very high on Travis Kelcey
entering the season, and then in Week one.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
He had a usable performance.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
He had that long touchdown against the Chargers, and you
might be wondering, was Xavier Worthy injured, Rashi Rice suspended?
Why would we trade away Travis Kelcey. Well, the idea
here is that the market's more bullish on Kelsey than
I am, because the market understands that those pass catchers
they're not available. And while he might see a target
share bump, I'm still concerned. Kelsey finished Week one with
(02:49):
those guys not in the lineup with a ten and
a half percent target share. It was the first time
that he was below an eleven percent target shair in
a game since Week three of twenty seventeen. So even
without Rashi Rice, even without Xavier Worthy, he still couldn't
see a high target share against the Chargers. And it'd
be one thing if this were prime Travis Kelcey, but
(03:10):
he's gonna be thirty six years old. In October, he
saw his yards per rout run rate, his yards after
the catch per catch rate.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
They both fell last year.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Maybe he can get by on volume, But what happens
when this wide receiver room looks better and healthier? Because
his stat line looked fine, I think now's an opportunity
to get something out of Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Hold Jaden Blue.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So I took plenty of l's last week, especially within
this podcast this episode, but Jaden Blue might be the
biggest L of all. Last week I mentioned that Jaden
Blue was rostered in forty percent of Yahoo leagues, and
I said that it should be closer to eighty percent.
And then the Cowboys in Week one made him a
surprise healthy scratch. So I look like an idiot, But
(03:58):
when I take a step back, I'm not that surprised
that all of that went down. He's a Day three
running back and he missed a lot of camp due
to injury. I didn't think that he would be a
healthy scratch, But in hindsight, I don't think it was
completely unpredictable. Now, about a quarter of the managers who
drafted Jayden Blue they've dropped him now, and I'm sure
more are going to be doing the same. But don't
(04:20):
be one of those managers. Javonte Williams he saw a
bell cow workload in Week one for Dallas. He did
nothing to ruin that in the short term. Some see
Williams as an obvious cell. I think he's more of
a hold. But look at Miles Sanders. What did Miles
Sanders provide for this Cowboys offense. He got caught from
behind on a breakaway run that was his only successful
(04:42):
run by EPA, and he fumbled the ball away during
a crucial point in the game. We have years of
recent data pointing to Miles Sanders not being a very
trustworthy running back, even if things don't come to fruition
for Jayden Blue this year. This is the exact type
of stash that you on your bench in season long leagues.
He's a rookie, so there's the unknown in this uncertain upside,
(05:05):
and he brings an element to that backfield that doesn't
currently exist, which is the shiftiness in speed. So I
would keep blueing my roster and if he was dropped
in your league, I think he's a great end of
bench stash.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Add Kaishan Booty.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So when Kaishan Booty came out, does that model actually
liked him quite a bit. He was a Day three prospect,
but versus where he was drafted, the model.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Did like him. Some of you might remember that.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Now, Booty's NFL production through the first two seasons of
his career has been kind of booty, But he had
a really solid Week one, and I think that's noteworthy
given all the changes that this Patriots team has seen
year over year. He ended Week one against the Raiders
with six catches for one hundred and three yards on
an eighteen percent target shair He was top twenty in
(05:53):
air yard share across the wide receiver position across the league. Now,
keep in mind Booty's still only twenty three years old.
He entered the NFL early, so after that performance, I
wouldn't want to keep him on the waiver wire in
most twelve team leagues. By Chris alave So. The Saints
may have a quarterback problem, just a long term quarterback problem.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
But one of the.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Things to love about this offense, this is what I
talked about during the offseason, is pace. Kellen Moore was
an offensive coordinator in the NFL for five seasons before
taking this head coaching gig.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
In those campaigns, his.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Team's never finished the season with fewer than sixty five
plays per game. For contexts, last year, the average team
ran sixty two point two plays per game after Sunday's
games were over, No team in football ran at a
faster pace than the New Orleans Saints, and that translated
to more passing volume. Spencer Ratler had forty six pass attempts.
(06:52):
The highest pass attempt tally for Saints quarterback last year
was forty two. This is really good news for the
pass catchers, specific Chris Alave. He saw absurdly good peripherals
against the Cardinals. He had a thirty one point seven
percent target share. Now his seven point seven averaged up
of target that wasn't great, but he could be a
PPR machine in this offense. So if the Alave manager
(07:16):
they're looking at that seven catch fifty four yard line
and they're seeing nothing special, you might be able to
get in before a bigger performance inevitably hits. And it
helps that the Saints play in a division where we
could see some good offensive performances.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Add Juwan Johnson.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
So Chris Alave is not the only Saints player that
you should be going after this week. Juwan Johnson definitely
needs to be added off the waiver wire pre Monday
Night Football. Only Trey McBride as a higher route participation
rate than Juwan Johnson At tight end. He ran around
on ninety six percent in New Orleans dropbacks. That translated
into a twenty six point eight percent target share and
(07:55):
fifteen point six PPR points. Like I just said, New
Orleans runs at a fast pace, there could be a
lot of passing volume in this offense this season. You
cannot leave Juwan Johnson on the waiver wire, especially if
you need some tight end help. Ad Cedric Tillman. So
last week on the Late Round Fantasy Football show, if
(08:17):
you listen to that, it's in the podcast feed now.
But if you listen to that, or maybe you watch
it over on YouTube, I went over some look ahead
waiver wire ads and one of those ads was Cedric
Tillman and here we are.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
The Browns traded.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
A Mariy Cooper after Week six last year. That allowed
Tilman to step in and get more work in that offense.
He then completed four games before his season ending injury.
In those games, he scored eighteen twenty nine, twenty and
eight PPR points. That was an eighteen point six PPR
points per game average, and it was on a twenty
(08:50):
two percent target chair per game rate. Meanwhile, during those
exact same games, Jerry Judy, his teammate, scored three, thirteen, fourteen,
and twenty six PPR points. He averaged fourteen point one
PPR points per game. His target chair per game was
just below twenty percent. In Week one, Tilman and Judy
(09:11):
played the same number of snaps, they ran the same
number of routes, and they saw the same number of targets.
Tilman scored sixteen point two PPR points, Jerry Judy eleven
point six. Let me put all this another way. Since
Amari Cooper left Cleveland, Cedric Tillman has completed five games
with Jerry Judy. Tilman's target share has been higher, and
(09:31):
he's outscored Jerry Judy and four of those five contests.
This really is a continuation of how I felt about
Jerry Judy over the offseason. I thought that he was
overrated and Tilman a little bit underrated, And I think
Week one just emphasized that even more. Now. The Browns
an't gonna face the Bengals every single week. That's a
beatable defense. But listen to their upcoming schedule over their
(09:54):
next five games, they get the Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings,
and Steelers. Those are bound to be some heavy scripts.
And then after that stretch they get a Dolphins defense
that was just man handled by Daniel Jones. If Cedric
Tillman is out there, he's a priority off the waiver wire.
Ad Harold Fannin. So since we're talking about the Cleveland Browns,
(10:17):
a shift our focus to the tight end position and
rookie Harold Fannon.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
His first game was awesome.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
He ended up catching seven of nine targets for thirteen
point six PPR points and he had a twenty one
point six percent target share. Now, I would be surprised
if Fannon finishes twenty twenty five as a tight end
one in fantasy. I like Harold Fannon a lot. I
liked him as a prospect. I even met his mom
over the summer, and she's awesome. I want Harold Fannin
(10:43):
to crush it in the NFL, But David and Joku
is still there. And then Joku ran nine more routes
than Harold Fannon in Week one. It's just that most
of the looks ended up going Fannin's way. Now, with
that being said, Kevin Stefanski likes twelve personnel. He will
use two tight end sets frequently, and we saw that
in Week one. So I do think Fannin is a
(11:04):
very usable piece. And there is that contingent upside if
David and Joku were to go down or really any
other injury in that offense to the pass catchers. And
as I mentioned with Cedric Tillman, Cleveland had some pass
heavy scripts upcoming that should help on the volume front.
Add Dylan Samson, so we'll go one more Cleveland Brown now.
(11:25):
During the summer, my rankings like Dylan Samson more than
both Quinchawn Judkins and Jerome Ford. With that being said
pre Week one, as we entered that Week one game,
I thought the Browns were gonna use Jerome Ford more
than they did. That was wrong advice on my end.
We watched Dylan Sampson see a nineteen percent target chair
and he scored seventeen point three PPR points. The crazy
(11:48):
thing about Samson's usage in that game was that Ford
actually played eight more snaps, he ran eleven more routes
than Samson, but when Samson was on the field, they
were just straight up feeding him. He's still out there
in over half of Yahoo leagues, so I have to
shout him out as a result. I know Quinn Shawn
Judkins is set to return, but I don't think Dylan
(12:09):
Sampson's gonna just go away, So I would be holding
on to him or adding him if he's out there.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Sell Deebo Samuel. So look, Terry McLaurin held out.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
We knew he was going to start the season off slow,
and that's what we saw in Week one. He had
a thirteen point eight percent target chair. He was lower
than that mark just once last year. Now Deebo Samuel's
now in the mix. He's better competition than anything Terry
McLaurin faced last year. But the target discrepancy that we
saw in Week one between Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel,
(12:42):
that's not going to remain all season long. Samuel had
a thirty four point five percent target chair and scored
twenty two point six PPR points against the Giants. There's
absolutely nothing wrong with that. He had awesome usage and
he came through. But one slight problem was he did
score eight points on one play.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
It was a rush. So his receiving numbers were good,
just not great.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
This transaction is really just to say, if you can
truly sell high on this performance, maybe package Deebo Samuel
up with another player and move up to an elite
wide receiver who underperformed in Week one.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
You should go for that. You should do that.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
Samuel is not someone that you absolutely need to get
off of your roster, and I do like him in
this Cliff Kingsbury offense. It's just that might have been
his best usage that we're gonna see from him all year.
That's a very real possibility. After all, it's just the
sixth time that he's hit a thirty four percent target
chair in a game, and it's the first time that
he's gotten there since Week three of twenty twenty three.
(13:40):
Add Quinton Johnston. One of the biggest surprises of Week
one was undoubtedly Quinton Johnston. He's been labeled to bust
through his first two seasons in the league. He scored
almost twenty five PPERO points against the Chiefs with a
twenty one percent target chair. Now, the favorable case for
Johnston would be that he's a great red zone threat
in lad looks like they may be continuing their pass
(14:02):
heavier trend from the second portion of last year. They
were a lot more pass heavy last year when Justin
Herbert got healthy. According to NFELO, the Chargers that have
pass right over expected a plus fifteen percent against the Chiefs. Now,
that was surely driven a little bit by matchup, but
even still it was good to see. Now on the
other side of the argument for Quentin Johnson, the bad
(14:23):
side is competition. Lad McConkie and Keenan Allen each ran
a similar number of routes as QJ this past week.
You have to imagine that McConkie, at the very least
he's gonna earn the most targets on the team this year.
There's a cap ceiling inherently for Quentin Johnston. Now, I'd
still prefer both McConkie and Allen to Johnston, but after
this performance, you should still be intrigued off the waiver wire.
(14:45):
He's a former first round pick. I just wouldn't go
nuts throwing a bunch of free agent budget at him. Typically,
this type of profile doesn't turn into a league winner,
just more of a bye week.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
Fill in by time Tracy.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
If you want more of a high variance move this week,
you could look at Tyrone Tracy. Fantasy managers are likely
scared off of Tracy because Camp Scataboo. He's already getting
looks out of the backfield, and Devin Singletary he played
some snaps two and that might be really scared because
Tracy only scored five and a half PPR points against Washington.
Why would they want that? Well, here's the deal. Tracy
(15:22):
operated as a bell cow for the Giants in Week one.
He played about seventy four percent of the team's offensive snaps.
He had a fifteen percent target chair, He had two
thirds of the team's running back rushes. His usage was awesome.
If that continues, better production's gonna come. Since twenty eleven,
we've had over one hundred and forty instances where a
running back played at least eight games and saw at
(15:44):
least a sixty percent running back rush share and a
ten percent target share. Those numbers are a decent bit
below where Tracy was in Week one. Of those backs,
only eight of them finished outside the top twenty four
at the position. Only two of them were outside the
top thirty. This is obviously assuming that Tracy can maintain
his workload. That's far from a lock. But if he
(16:06):
does He's gonna have better outings than this one, and
I know that's a big if, but that's why this
is a riskier move to make. I just think that
right now he might be pretty cheap, so why not
take on that risk. Ad Calvin Austen Aaron Rodgers looked
competent in Week one. Calvin Austin. He was the number
two wide receiver for Pittsburgh. He ran around on eighty
(16:28):
eight percent of pittsburgh'sdropbacks. He scored seventeen p P points
on a twenty one percent target share. When new quarterbacks
are in the mix like this, I never want to
ignore a potential connection. Maybe Aaron Rodgers really likes Calvin Austin,
so look, the odds aren't in Calvin Austen's favor. I
wouldn't be super super aggressive in adding him off the
waiver wire, but I do think you should be looking
(16:50):
at him. Ad elck eyamanor The Tennessee Titans offense was
not amazing in Week one, but that was predictable. They
have a rookie quarterback. They were facing one of the
best defenses in football. This is where we need to
focus on peripherals. Calvin Ridley, he led that team and
snaps in routes run he had a thirty two percent
(17:10):
target chair. He only scored six point seven PPR points,
but he should be fine. I'd still be comfortable with
Calvin Ridley, but don't sleep on elk Iaman or either.
Iamanner was a really intriguing prospect who everyone thought was
going to be a Day two pick, and then he
ended up dropping and he went to the Titans on
Day three. In Week one, he operated as Tennessee's number
(17:32):
two wide receiver. He ran around on eighty two percent
of the team's dropbacks. He was top fifteen among all
wide receivers in air yard chair, and he also saw
a twenty eight percent target share. A rookie wide receiver
getting in to a twenty five percent target chair in
week one is not common. Since twenty eleven, it looks
like the only players to get there have been Pokinakua,
(17:53):
Will Fuller, Jamar Chase, Zey Flowers, Rashad Green, Taj Sharp,
dk Metcalf, Kyle Phillips, My Evans, and Lad McConkie. Now,
funny enough, there are two Day three wide receivers on
that list that came from Tennessee. But I can at
least tell you that the ZAP model it liked elick
Iamanner more than those players he was given a low
(18:14):
risk draft capital delta. In that model, the model liked
him a lot more versus where he was drafted. Strictly,
from a process standpoint, when a rookie shows us something,
let alone early on in the season, we should be
going after him on the waiver wire. Not a lot
of people are gonna be looking elk Iamanner's way because
he only scored three point three PPR points.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
But you should add the Seattle Seahawks defense.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Look, I think the Seahawks defense is good, and I
don't think fantasy managers are totally aware. They finished Week
one with the highest pressure rate in football. They pressured
Brock Purdy on over sixty percent of his dropbacks according
to next Gen Stats. This week they get Pittsburgh and
that game has a forty and a half point total,
and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he
was set four times on nine total pressures. And what
(19:03):
I like about Seattle is that you could use them
next week too, even if this week's not an ideal matchup,
even if it's just okay, next week they get New Orleans,
this could be a two week defense. So I was
sitting here, I was all finished with a fifteen transactions
episode in the newsletter, and then all of a sudden,
(19:25):
I see the news that Tank Bigsby is traded to
Philadelphia for a fifth and sixth round pick, and as
a result, we have the first bonus transaction of the season. Now, obviously,
Tank Bigsby becomes more of a handcuff to Saquon Barklay now,
but this Jacksonville Jaguars backfield, it opens up quite a bit.
Instead of a four headed monster that's what we saw
last week against Carolina, we're now down to three and
(19:48):
that makes this backfield a little bit clearer. Travis Etn
gets the biggest immediate bump, or at least he should
be able to maintain what he saw this past week
when he saw sixty four percent running back rush. Share
My guy bay Shall Tuton, who I love this summer,
is my favorite Jacksonville Jaguars target. He's someone that becomes
a more intriguing stash. I think he's gonna get a
(20:09):
little bit more work this week, and if he shows out,
he could just carve out a bigger and bigger role
in that backfield. If you guys recall the ZAP model
loved Bashall Tuton, but you.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Know who else is ZAT model liked Laquin Allen.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
He had arguably the best pass catching profile of any
running back in this year's draft class, and we already
saw him with a role in this Jags backfield. He
was on the field for eighty percent of their long
down and distance snaps against Carolina, that's according to Fantasy
Life data. And that's why this bonus transaction is to
add Laquent Allen. I probably should have gotten too that
earlier with ETN and Tuton rostered in a lot of
(20:45):
leagues already. Allen's a more traditional ad, especially in PPR formats,
but if base shall Tuton is available in your league,
I'd prefer him for upside purposes. That's it for today's show, though,
Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are messaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can
be found. You to follow me on Twitter and on
(21:05):
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends
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