September 12, 2025 • 21 mins
Was Keon Coleman's Week 1 performance a fluke? Should we be concerned about David Njoku with Harold Fannin's emergence? Is Kenneth Walker toast? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha,
j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson
in this episode oney eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's
(00:23):
no better way to get closer to the action than
with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play for your share of millions. The
crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter gambler in
New York called eight seven to seven eight hope n
(00:44):
Why in Connecticut called eighty eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states eligible restructors. Supply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first question is from Patreon. It's from Kevin.
It says, hey, JJ, how sustainable was the breakout game
(01:07):
for Keon Coleman. He looked great but was that only
because of gamescript? Not sure if we can expect a
two touchdown deficit for the Bills every week. So I
had Coleman as a target in this year's draft guide.
And when I say things like that, I don't say
it to be like, hey, look at me. I'm gonna
do this a lot on today's show. I mention it
(01:27):
so that you guys can be grounded with where I
was with the player before I dig into that player.
If it makes you feel any better, I had Zave
Flowers as an avoid So how's that working out. I'm
gonna be right, I'm gonna be wrong. That's the way
this stuff goes. But I'm grounding myself to say I
liked Keon Coleman entering the season. I was higher than
the market with Coleman. I thought there were reasons to
(01:50):
be interested in him. And so my answer to this
is that I do think at least some of this
is sustainable. But there's a lot of noise to what
went down to So let's just dig in. Buffalo is
actually at just plus point seven percent in pass right
over expect against Baltimore. That's because, as you noted, they
faced a poor game script, so they were expected to
pass a lot. I don't think that kind of script
(02:12):
is gonna be frequent. Josh Allen threw it forty six
times in that game. His highest pass attempt total last
year was forty attempts. This isn't the way that Joe
Brady tends to run his offense. The Bills ran forty
seven plays in Week one while trailing by ten or
more points. Their highest total last year within that category
(02:33):
was forty plays, and funny enough, that also came against Baltimore.
But this is why we can look at peripherals, you guys.
This is a prime example of why I focus so
heavily on things like target share, because game script fluctuates
overall team volume can fluctuate. When you know how a
team deployed a player within his team environment, you can
(02:54):
then adjust for a more stable game script, one that
we're more likely to see. For the Buffalo Bills, Keon
Coleman in Week one saw a ninety four percent route
participation rate that was best on the Bills. He had
a twenty four percent target share that was best on
the Bills. Coleman reached better than a ninety percent route
share just twice last year, and those games were in
(03:17):
Week seventeen. In Week eighteen, the end of the year
for a young rookie, his target shairs in those games
they were also the two highest shares of his season.
So this is sort of an extension of what we
saw down the stretch in that twenty twenty four season,
which is very, very encouraging, and that's the part that
I'm really interested in. So, no, what happened in Week
(03:39):
one not totally sustainable. He saw eleven total targets when
a twenty five percent target chair in Buffalo usually won't
yield eleven targets. But there are a lot of encouraging
signs for Keon Coleman that make me believe he's gonna
outperform his average draft position this year. A lot of
his Year one comparisons, when you look at things like
average at the target yards oute run, they were players
(04:02):
who can play that X role and who can be
big touchdown scorers like Cortland, Sutton and George Pickens. There
were misses in there too. Not all of his comps
were perfect, but the ceiling comps were definitely there, and
I think with Coleman, there is an interesting ceiling despite
the fact that some of these separation scorers don't like him.
(04:22):
That's just not his game. He's not gonna score well
within those kind of metrics. I think overall, it's a
very encouraging game for Keyon Coleman, the nice question is
from Davy. It says there's been a lot of talk
about Harold Fannin of the Browns. I'm curious about your
take on David and Joku. Is he a hold because
(04:42):
of the trade possibility and the fact that he still
ran a full compliment of routes. I mean, I think
he's a hold because it's one game, and yes, he
still ran a normal number of routes. And in Joko
is in the same type of tight end as Harold
Fannin is. I talked about this at times throughout the offseason,
specifically remember having a discussion about it with Matt Waldman,
whether it was on my show or maybe his show.
(05:04):
But Fannin is a very good route runner. He's not
the most traditional tight end in the world from that perspective,
whereas in Djoku he's always used his athleticism to get
the job done, and Djoku can really stretch the field
if need be. Fanin is more of that technician. What
we saw in Week one was number one, the Kevin
Stefanski Special, which is a lot of twelve personnel, two
(05:25):
tight end sets, which makes a lot of sense because
the Browns don't have a lot of wide receiver depth,
they have no obvious slot receiver. Fannin ended up running
forty two percent of his routes out of the slot.
That's not like an insane number, but it was a
lot more than David and Joku. I do think that
one possibility here is that we're looking at a similar
situation as what we saw last year in Baltimore with
(05:49):
Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely in Week one last year,
likely comes out he has a monster game, but Andrews
was still the one running more routes for Baltimore. That's
definitely a possibility. With that being said, I think there's
a better chance that we see Fannin overtaking in Joku
than likely overtaking Andrews. And yes, hindsight's in my favor here.
(06:12):
We know that Isaiah likely didn't overtake Mark Andrews last year.
If these two things, in these two situations were happening simultaneously,
maybe my take is a little bit different. I can
admit that I have no idea, but the reason why
is pretty straightforward to me. Fannin's a rookie and he
was a better prospect than Isaiah Likely. He's also a
(06:32):
completely different type of asset compared to what the Browns
already have and David and Joku. He's not as good
as Mark Andrews. So I'll just be honest. As the
week's gone on, I've gotten more and more bullish on
Harold Fannin. I mean, I liked him coming out, and
I even liked him as a dart throwne like best
Ball this year. I'm just saying from a redraft perspective,
I've liked him more and more as I thought about
(06:55):
this situation. I think our natural instinct is to say, well,
David and Joku there, surely he's gonna be the tight
end one in fantasy for the Browns. But I'm not
convinced that's gonna happen with the way they deployed Fannin
in week one. Now, I don't think that's a sure thing.
Right now. I still having Joku ahead, but that gap
is much closer after Week one than it was before
(07:15):
Week one, and look, I was already lower than the
market on David and Joku, and again not saying that
the pat myself in the back, just more to tell
you that that was my stance entering the season, and
I'm still lower than the market. I think this fan
and stuff is legit, especially because they lack that go
to slot player. So Fannin doesn't destroy in Joku, but
(07:37):
he definitely hurts in Joku. They may not play the
same type of position, but when you have another threat
in that offense, it lowers the target share potential of
the players around that player. With Harold Fannin getting looks,
it hurts every other player in that offense. From a
fantasy perspective, it's another fifteen percent target share that we
(07:58):
have to account for, and maybe that target share is
going to be even higher. So even if that route
share is strong, which it was in Week one for
David and Joku, having another weapon will make David and
Joku's fantasy output worse. It doesn't make him irrelevant, and
he might even be fine here in Week two, but
over the long run, Harold Fannin's presence makes David and
(08:20):
Joku a worse fantasy football asset. This says questions from Brendon,
It says, what impact from the Tank Bigsby trade do
you envision? Would you be trying to obtain Tank or Tutin?
And who has a higher ROI for rest of season.
I also got one from Albert that says, hey, JJ,
it seems like everyone is high on Beshall Tuton, especially
(08:42):
with Bigsby gone. However, it seems like Luquinn Allen might
be the receiving back. It wouldn't that make him more
valuable if Etn were to miss time. It seems like
it would be a committee opposed to Tutan becoming a
league winning three down back or do you think Tuton
would see RB one volume? So I've got to talk
about this Tank Bigsby trade, at least more than I
(09:04):
was able to talk about it on the fifteen Transactions
episode earlier this week. First off, with Tank Bigsby, I
don't think he's anything more than a handcuff, and I
talk about this on the Late Round Perspectives episode that's
dropping in just a few hours, so you can listen
to that for more. But I don't think he's anything
more than a handcuff and a guy the Eagles wanted
for special teams purposes. Now outside of that, going into Jacksonville,
(09:25):
this is a massive win for everyone in that backfield.
But I've seen the takes out there where people are like,
why are people excited about Teuton when Travis Etn just
had a great game and he was recently a top
running back in fantasy And the reason for that is
because it's a very real chance that Travis Etn's workload
doesn't even change week over week with this move. The
(09:46):
big winner compared to Week one is bay Shall Tuton,
who now has a clearer path to seeing the field.
And if you're like me and you like bea Shall Tuton,
you thought he was a really good prospect, you thought
that he was someone who is undervalue, then you're excited
because that means that Tuton now has a chance to
show off his ability, whereas before there was more in
(10:08):
his way. But yes, of course it's gonna help Travis Etn,
especially in the short term. We didn't know if he'd
be the short yardage back or the goal line back,
and now that's a very real possibility. He had a
good game in Week one, his usage was there, and
now there's not a threat of Tank Bigsby. With that
being said, I'm anticipating bashall Tuton getting more and more
(10:31):
work as the season goes on. The ZAP model loved Teuton,
and there are already reporters out there like Jordan Schultz
who are talking about Tuton stock being up. That's a
national reporter. Now. When it comes to la Quinn Allen,
I had him as an ad on the fifteen Transaction
Show earlier this week because obviously Etn and Tuton they're
already rostered in a lot of leagues. Allen's playing as
(10:55):
their long down in distance back and maybe he ends
up carving out a bigger role than what expecting. I mean,
I liked him as a prospect too, and there's some
continuent upside here with multiple running backs with both base
Shall Tuton and Travis Etn. If one of them get hurt,
then yeah, lea Quinn Allen he'll see more work on
the ground. But Allen doesn't profile as the early down
(11:16):
runner that bashall Tuton profiles as. And even though Allen
be the hypothetical pass catcher, we have to remember that
there are more first and second downs than third downs.
If Laquent Allen is only on the field on third downs.
That's not the most valuable role in the world. Even
if he is the pass catcher in that backfield, there's
still gonna be a lot of targets going to both
(11:37):
Travis Etn and hopefully bay Shall Tuton two. I think
we confuse that at times third down backs aren't seeing
the field as much even if they're operating in that role.
And it's highly unlikely that Allen's going to be the
goal line back. But look, it's a big trade for
all three of these running backs. I think Etn is
gonna win the short term, while Tuton is the biggest
(11:59):
winner low long term, and LeQuinn Allen could be rostered
in twelve teen leagues because all of the reasons I
just mentioned, at least in deeper PPR formats the tests
questions from ted It says, do all signs point to
Quinn Shawn Judkins taking over that Brown's backfield once he
starts playing or is it going to be a messy
three headed committee? Now, obviously Quinn Shawn Judkins needs to
(12:22):
be rostered in every league at this point, but I
did have some pass catching concerns with him as a
prospect not that he was a zero. He wasn't like
Damian Martinez. It wasn't that kind of profile. But Judkins
looked more like a Jonathan Taylor type from a usage
perspective than a Christian McCaffrey type. And I thought Dylan
Samson number one, looked pretty good in Week one, but
(12:43):
number two he showed that he could be a pass
catcher in the NFL. I thought there were actually some
question marks to his profile as well coming out, but
that's also partially because Tennessee is a really hard school
to prospect from. They have a really difficult offense to
really wrap your head around. It wouldn't surprise me if
Jerome Ford gets phased out during the second half of
the season. But like I said in the Sleeper Show,
(13:05):
Ford still played their two minute snaps, so in negative
game scripts, I do think that Jerome Ford could see
the field quite a bit, which could be a problem
for the fantasy upside of Dylan Sampson and Quinchwn Judkins.
So I kind of see this as a short term mess,
whereas as the season goes on, we'll see more of
a two headed monster with Judkins and Samson. Judkins could
(13:26):
be like a sixty five seventy percent running back rush
air player, maybe like a six or seven percent target
shair player, while Sampson gets the other work in that backfield.
The st question from Twitter it says, how do you
feel about Penix for rest of the season as a
locked starter? So I do that episode on good early
season schedules in late July every year, and I called
(13:48):
out Pennix on that show because Atlanta's opening schedule is awesome.
We saw him come through in week one, and he's
streamworthy here in week two, and then it's the Panthers, Commanders,
the Bills that games in Atlanta, the forty nine Ers,
and the Dolphins now rest of season locked in starter.
I'd be surprised if that ended up being the case,
(14:10):
but as someone who should be rostered during the front
half of the season, just to see how we feel
during the second half of the year. Absolutely, This last
question from Daniel it says, how are we feeling about
Josh Downs. I know it's only week one, but it
seems like his role is the exact same as last year,
and it's only made worse due to the emergence of
Tyler Warren. Losing hope in Downs so I'm once again
(14:35):
gonna preface this by how I felt in the preseason
because it gives you guys perspective of where I was
and where I'm at now. But his usage in Week
one it was precisely what kept me from ranking him
above market. This offseason, I did a study via the
Late Round newsletter that looked at his type of archetype.
Now that study, it's centered around Jaden Reid and whether
(14:56):
Reid's role really mattered for fantasy purposes, And by roll,
I'm talking about a wide receiver who had a lower
route participation rate under the eighty percent mark while having
higher slot rates over the sixty percent mark. Among players
who fell into those buckets, since twenty eleven, we've only
had three wide outs ranked higher than wide receiver seventeen
in PPR points per game. Only five guys have been
(15:18):
wide receiver one or wide receiver twos. And of the
players who sort of buck this trend, they basically just
scored a lot of touchdowns. Now, both Reid and Downs
have better profiles than the traditional slot guys. They're incredibly
efficient players, but yes, if their teams are going to
continue using them in that way, and I'm recording this
before the Packers game for the record. So maybe Green
(15:40):
Bay uses Jayden Reid a different way in Week two.
We'll see. But until their teams start using them more
on a higher percentage of their dropbacks, they're gonna be
limited in fantasy football. Now, if you want some optimism,
the hope in the upside for Josh Downs is that
Indy didn't have to do a lot of heavy throwing
in Week one. They were bottom five in pass rate
against My Miami because of game script. But one thing
(16:02):
to keep in mind and just a monitor, is that
Indy did use twelve personnel at about a thirty percent
rate in Week one. That's according to Sumer Sports data.
That number was twenty twenty one percent last year. Now,
that too could just be how that game was handled,
but more twelve personnel would also hurt Josh Downs. Downs
(16:22):
is a very very good player. I still think he's
a general buy in Dynasty. I just unfortunately don't think
he's in a very good environment for fantasy purposes. In fact,
I know he isn't in a good environment. The last
question this week is from Michael. It says I have
Kenneth Walker was offered Zach Charbonay and Ricky pearsall for
(16:43):
Rashi Rice. Am I too stubborn to think Walker can
still be the main guy there and Rice can be
a wide receiver one? Or should I take this offer?
So I see stuff like this all the time where
there's a disappointing RB one he's splitting work with another back,
and someone goes and trade for the RB two on
that team. But you have to think about where that
(17:04):
puts your fantasy team, what kind of choices you're gonna
have to make each week. By trading for Sharbonay, you're
not all of a sudden getting better production from your
running back spot. You're now using two roster spots for
Seattle's backfield production, and you more than likely won't be
starting both of those running backs in your lineup in
the same week. Now. Of course, Walker gets more valuable
(17:26):
if Sharbonay gets hurt and vice versa. But this is
the same sort of idea that I talked about before
with ambiguous backfields. Capturing backfields isn't really the thing that
you want to do, because we know the majority of
backfields they're not gonna give us multiple Top ten, Top
twenty running backs. Honestly, trading for Sharbonay would actually make
(17:47):
more sense if Kenneth Walker was a bell cow in
Week one, because then you could say, Okay, we knew
that Walker was coming to the season injured. We know
he has an injury history. Maybe he's a little injury prone,
But now I have insurance for that and what could
be a good rushing offense. So I'm gonna have Zach Sharboney.
I'm not even super into handcuffing this early in the season,
(18:08):
but that actually makes more sense than trading for a
player who's in a split backfield. And honestly, it feels
like people were acting as though Zach Sharboney was a workhorse.
In Week one. He saw two more carries than Kenneth Walker.
Walker actually saw more work through the air. Now, if
there's one player who I'd be concerned about after Week
one versus where we drafted him, it's definitely Kenneth Walker.
(18:31):
He fell in my rankings when looking at my draft
rankings versus my rest of season rankings. Now, I've always
thought that Zach Sharboney was good. Coaching staffs haven't. They
haven't given Sharbonay and Walker this kind of split, and
it's alarming. That this split is happening with a new
offensive coordinator, so we need to react. I bumped Walker
(18:53):
down my rankings, but I don't think we should overreact.
I don't think Kenneth Walker is necessarily toast. It's not
like Seattle was super effective offensively in Week one and
Walker was coming off that injury. Maybe he's not one
hundred percent. Look if you want to sell low on
Walker because you're nervous of what's to come, I don't
think that's some invalid or stupid thing to do. I
(19:15):
still prefer him to Zach Sharbonay, and I prefer him
to a lot of the RB three type running backs
out there because we know the upside exists. We know
it's there with Walker, and even if Sharbonay is there,
we also have contingent upside with Kenneth Walker too, not
just Sharps. Sharboney can get hurt too, So I think
Walker's more of a hold. I'm just trying to be
(19:37):
rational about this. I shared some data last week on
the Late Round Fantasy Football show where I talked about
when current season points per game becomes more predictive than
average RAPT position, and after Week one, we're not even
close to that point yet. Now that's across an entire sample,
but it tells us that there's tons and tons of
variants still early on in the season. But when it
(20:00):
comes to combining forces and getting both running Max and
your fantasy team, you should actually run away from that
kind of strategy, not towards it. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you get
subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are best artshing for you pretty much anywhere podcasts
can be found, and don't fit to follow me on
Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks
(20:23):
for listening everyone. I got a Late Round Perspectives episode
dropping later today, hope you listen to that, and then
tomorrow within the podcast feed you'll get an episode of
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. But if you want
to just watch that show live, you can do that
on YouTube as well. Kitchen and I will be live
at one pm Eastern on Friday, so today, and that's
on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot
(20:45):
com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone,
greatly appreciate you. Have a great weekend and enjoy week two,
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha,
j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson
in this episode oney eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's
(00:23):
no better way to get closer to the action than
with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play for your share of millions. The
crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter gambler in
New York called eight seven to seven eight hope n
(00:44):
Why in Connecticut called eighty eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states eligible restructors. Supply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first question is from Patreon. It's from Kevin.
It says, hey, JJ, how sustainable was the breakout game
(01:07):
for Keon Coleman. He looked great but was that only
because of gamescript? Not sure if we can expect a
two touchdown deficit for the Bills every week. So I
had Coleman as a target in this year's draft guide.
And when I say things like that, I don't say
it to be like, hey, look at me. I'm gonna
do this a lot on today's show. I mention it
(01:27):
so that you guys can be grounded with where I
was with the player before I dig into that player.
If it makes you feel any better, I had Zave
Flowers as an avoid So how's that working out. I'm
gonna be right, I'm gonna be wrong. That's the way
this stuff goes. But I'm grounding myself to say I
liked Keon Coleman entering the season. I was higher than
the market with Coleman. I thought there were reasons to
(01:50):
be interested in him. And so my answer to this
is that I do think at least some of this
is sustainable. But there's a lot of noise to what
went down to So let's just dig in. Buffalo is
actually at just plus point seven percent in pass right
over expect against Baltimore. That's because, as you noted, they
faced a poor game script, so they were expected to
pass a lot. I don't think that kind of script
(02:12):
is gonna be frequent. Josh Allen threw it forty six
times in that game. His highest pass attempt total last
year was forty attempts. This isn't the way that Joe
Brady tends to run his offense. The Bills ran forty
seven plays in Week one while trailing by ten or
more points. Their highest total last year within that category
(02:33):
was forty plays, and funny enough, that also came against Baltimore.
But this is why we can look at peripherals, you guys.
This is a prime example of why I focus so
heavily on things like target share, because game script fluctuates
overall team volume can fluctuate. When you know how a
team deployed a player within his team environment, you can
(02:54):
then adjust for a more stable game script, one that
we're more likely to see. For the Buffalo Bills, Keon
Coleman in Week one saw a ninety four percent route
participation rate that was best on the Bills. He had
a twenty four percent target share that was best on
the Bills. Coleman reached better than a ninety percent route
share just twice last year, and those games were in
(03:17):
Week seventeen. In Week eighteen, the end of the year
for a young rookie, his target shairs in those games
they were also the two highest shares of his season.
So this is sort of an extension of what we
saw down the stretch in that twenty twenty four season,
which is very, very encouraging, and that's the part that
I'm really interested in. So, no, what happened in Week
(03:39):
one not totally sustainable. He saw eleven total targets when
a twenty five percent target chair in Buffalo usually won't
yield eleven targets. But there are a lot of encouraging
signs for Keon Coleman that make me believe he's gonna
outperform his average draft position this year. A lot of
his Year one comparisons, when you look at things like
average at the target yards oute run, they were players
(04:02):
who can play that X role and who can be
big touchdown scorers like Cortland, Sutton and George Pickens. There
were misses in there too. Not all of his comps
were perfect, but the ceiling comps were definitely there, and
I think with Coleman, there is an interesting ceiling despite
the fact that some of these separation scorers don't like him.
(04:22):
That's just not his game. He's not gonna score well
within those kind of metrics. I think overall, it's a
very encouraging game for Keyon Coleman, the nice question is
from Davy. It says there's been a lot of talk
about Harold Fannin of the Browns. I'm curious about your
take on David and Joku. Is he a hold because
(04:42):
of the trade possibility and the fact that he still
ran a full compliment of routes. I mean, I think
he's a hold because it's one game, and yes, he
still ran a normal number of routes. And in Joko
is in the same type of tight end as Harold
Fannin is. I talked about this at times throughout the offseason,
specifically remember having a discussion about it with Matt Waldman,
whether it was on my show or maybe his show.
(05:04):
But Fannin is a very good route runner. He's not
the most traditional tight end in the world from that perspective,
whereas in Djoku he's always used his athleticism to get
the job done, and Djoku can really stretch the field
if need be. Fanin is more of that technician. What
we saw in Week one was number one, the Kevin
Stefanski Special, which is a lot of twelve personnel, two
(05:25):
tight end sets, which makes a lot of sense because
the Browns don't have a lot of wide receiver depth,
they have no obvious slot receiver. Fannin ended up running
forty two percent of his routes out of the slot.
That's not like an insane number, but it was a
lot more than David and Joku. I do think that
one possibility here is that we're looking at a similar
situation as what we saw last year in Baltimore with
(05:49):
Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely in Week one last year,
likely comes out he has a monster game, but Andrews
was still the one running more routes for Baltimore. That's
definitely a possibility. With that being said, I think there's
a better chance that we see Fannin overtaking in Joku
than likely overtaking Andrews. And yes, hindsight's in my favor here.
(06:12):
We know that Isaiah likely didn't overtake Mark Andrews last year.
If these two things, in these two situations were happening simultaneously,
maybe my take is a little bit different. I can
admit that I have no idea, but the reason why
is pretty straightforward to me. Fannin's a rookie and he
was a better prospect than Isaiah Likely. He's also a
(06:32):
completely different type of asset compared to what the Browns
already have and David and Joku. He's not as good
as Mark Andrews. So I'll just be honest. As the
week's gone on, I've gotten more and more bullish on
Harold Fannin. I mean, I liked him coming out, and
I even liked him as a dart throwne like best
Ball this year. I'm just saying from a redraft perspective,
I've liked him more and more as I thought about
(06:55):
this situation. I think our natural instinct is to say, well,
David and Joku there, surely he's gonna be the tight
end one in fantasy for the Browns. But I'm not
convinced that's gonna happen with the way they deployed Fannin
in week one. Now, I don't think that's a sure thing.
Right now. I still having Joku ahead, but that gap
is much closer after Week one than it was before
(07:15):
Week one, and look, I was already lower than the
market on David and Joku, and again not saying that
the pat myself in the back, just more to tell
you that that was my stance entering the season, and
I'm still lower than the market. I think this fan
and stuff is legit, especially because they lack that go
to slot player. So Fannin doesn't destroy in Joku, but
(07:37):
he definitely hurts in Joku. They may not play the
same type of position, but when you have another threat
in that offense, it lowers the target share potential of
the players around that player. With Harold Fannin getting looks,
it hurts every other player in that offense. From a
fantasy perspective, it's another fifteen percent target share that we
(07:58):
have to account for, and maybe that target share is
going to be even higher. So even if that route
share is strong, which it was in Week one for
David and Joku, having another weapon will make David and
Joku's fantasy output worse. It doesn't make him irrelevant, and
he might even be fine here in Week two, but
over the long run, Harold Fannin's presence makes David and
(08:20):
Joku a worse fantasy football asset. This says questions from Brendon,
It says, what impact from the Tank Bigsby trade do
you envision? Would you be trying to obtain Tank or Tutin?
And who has a higher ROI for rest of season.
I also got one from Albert that says, hey, JJ,
it seems like everyone is high on Beshall Tuton, especially
(08:42):
with Bigsby gone. However, it seems like Luquinn Allen might
be the receiving back. It wouldn't that make him more
valuable if Etn were to miss time. It seems like
it would be a committee opposed to Tutan becoming a
league winning three down back or do you think Tuton
would see RB one volume? So I've got to talk
about this Tank Bigsby trade, at least more than I
(09:04):
was able to talk about it on the fifteen Transactions
episode earlier this week. First off, with Tank Bigsby, I
don't think he's anything more than a handcuff, and I
talk about this on the Late Round Perspectives episode that's
dropping in just a few hours, so you can listen
to that for more. But I don't think he's anything
more than a handcuff and a guy the Eagles wanted
for special teams purposes. Now outside of that, going into Jacksonville,
(09:25):
this is a massive win for everyone in that backfield.
But I've seen the takes out there where people are like,
why are people excited about Teuton when Travis Etn just
had a great game and he was recently a top
running back in fantasy And the reason for that is
because it's a very real chance that Travis Etn's workload
doesn't even change week over week with this move. The
(09:46):
big winner compared to Week one is bay Shall Tuton,
who now has a clearer path to seeing the field.
And if you're like me and you like bea Shall Tuton,
you thought he was a really good prospect, you thought
that he was someone who is undervalue, then you're excited
because that means that Tuton now has a chance to
show off his ability, whereas before there was more in
(10:08):
his way. But yes, of course it's gonna help Travis Etn,
especially in the short term. We didn't know if he'd
be the short yardage back or the goal line back,
and now that's a very real possibility. He had a
good game in Week one, his usage was there, and
now there's not a threat of Tank Bigsby. With that
being said, I'm anticipating bashall Tuton getting more and more
(10:31):
work as the season goes on. The ZAP model loved Teuton,
and there are already reporters out there like Jordan Schultz
who are talking about Tuton stock being up. That's a
national reporter. Now. When it comes to la Quinn Allen,
I had him as an ad on the fifteen Transaction
Show earlier this week because obviously Etn and Tuton they're
already rostered in a lot of leagues. Allen's playing as
(10:55):
their long down in distance back and maybe he ends
up carving out a bigger role than what expecting. I mean,
I liked him as a prospect too, and there's some
continuent upside here with multiple running backs with both base
Shall Tuton and Travis Etn. If one of them get hurt,
then yeah, lea Quinn Allen he'll see more work on
the ground. But Allen doesn't profile as the early down
(11:16):
runner that bashall Tuton profiles as. And even though Allen
be the hypothetical pass catcher, we have to remember that
there are more first and second downs than third downs.
If Laquent Allen is only on the field on third downs.
That's not the most valuable role in the world. Even
if he is the pass catcher in that backfield, there's
still gonna be a lot of targets going to both
(11:37):
Travis Etn and hopefully bay Shall Tuton two. I think
we confuse that at times third down backs aren't seeing
the field as much even if they're operating in that role.
And it's highly unlikely that Allen's going to be the
goal line back. But look, it's a big trade for
all three of these running backs. I think Etn is
gonna win the short term, while Tuton is the biggest
(11:59):
winner low long term, and LeQuinn Allen could be rostered
in twelve teen leagues because all of the reasons I
just mentioned, at least in deeper PPR formats the tests
questions from ted It says, do all signs point to
Quinn Shawn Judkins taking over that Brown's backfield once he
starts playing or is it going to be a messy
three headed committee? Now, obviously Quinn Shawn Judkins needs to
(12:22):
be rostered in every league at this point, but I
did have some pass catching concerns with him as a
prospect not that he was a zero. He wasn't like
Damian Martinez. It wasn't that kind of profile. But Judkins
looked more like a Jonathan Taylor type from a usage
perspective than a Christian McCaffrey type. And I thought Dylan
Samson number one, looked pretty good in Week one, but
(12:43):
number two he showed that he could be a pass
catcher in the NFL. I thought there were actually some
question marks to his profile as well coming out, but
that's also partially because Tennessee is a really hard school
to prospect from. They have a really difficult offense to
really wrap your head around. It wouldn't surprise me if
Jerome Ford gets phased out during the second half of
the season. But like I said in the Sleeper Show,
(13:05):
Ford still played their two minute snaps, so in negative
game scripts, I do think that Jerome Ford could see
the field quite a bit, which could be a problem
for the fantasy upside of Dylan Sampson and Quinchwn Judkins.
So I kind of see this as a short term mess,
whereas as the season goes on, we'll see more of
a two headed monster with Judkins and Samson. Judkins could
(13:26):
be like a sixty five seventy percent running back rush
air player, maybe like a six or seven percent target
shair player, while Sampson gets the other work in that backfield.
The st question from Twitter it says, how do you
feel about Penix for rest of the season as a
locked starter? So I do that episode on good early
season schedules in late July every year, and I called
(13:48):
out Pennix on that show because Atlanta's opening schedule is awesome.
We saw him come through in week one, and he's
streamworthy here in week two, and then it's the Panthers, Commanders,
the Bills that games in Atlanta, the forty nine Ers,
and the Dolphins now rest of season locked in starter.
I'd be surprised if that ended up being the case,
(14:10):
but as someone who should be rostered during the front
half of the season, just to see how we feel
during the second half of the year. Absolutely, This last
question from Daniel it says, how are we feeling about
Josh Downs. I know it's only week one, but it
seems like his role is the exact same as last year,
and it's only made worse due to the emergence of
Tyler Warren. Losing hope in Downs so I'm once again
(14:35):
gonna preface this by how I felt in the preseason
because it gives you guys perspective of where I was
and where I'm at now. But his usage in Week
one it was precisely what kept me from ranking him
above market. This offseason, I did a study via the
Late Round newsletter that looked at his type of archetype.
Now that study, it's centered around Jaden Reid and whether
(14:56):
Reid's role really mattered for fantasy purposes, And by roll,
I'm talking about a wide receiver who had a lower
route participation rate under the eighty percent mark while having
higher slot rates over the sixty percent mark. Among players
who fell into those buckets, since twenty eleven, we've only
had three wide outs ranked higher than wide receiver seventeen
in PPR points per game. Only five guys have been
(15:18):
wide receiver one or wide receiver twos. And of the
players who sort of buck this trend, they basically just
scored a lot of touchdowns. Now, both Reid and Downs
have better profiles than the traditional slot guys. They're incredibly
efficient players, but yes, if their teams are going to
continue using them in that way, and I'm recording this
before the Packers game for the record. So maybe Green
(15:40):
Bay uses Jayden Reid a different way in Week two.
We'll see. But until their teams start using them more
on a higher percentage of their dropbacks, they're gonna be
limited in fantasy football. Now, if you want some optimism,
the hope in the upside for Josh Downs is that
Indy didn't have to do a lot of heavy throwing
in Week one. They were bottom five in pass rate
against My Miami because of game script. But one thing
(16:02):
to keep in mind and just a monitor, is that
Indy did use twelve personnel at about a thirty percent
rate in Week one. That's according to Sumer Sports data.
That number was twenty twenty one percent last year. Now,
that too could just be how that game was handled,
but more twelve personnel would also hurt Josh Downs. Downs
(16:22):
is a very very good player. I still think he's
a general buy in Dynasty. I just unfortunately don't think
he's in a very good environment for fantasy purposes. In fact,
I know he isn't in a good environment. The last
question this week is from Michael. It says I have
Kenneth Walker was offered Zach Charbonay and Ricky pearsall for
(16:43):
Rashi Rice. Am I too stubborn to think Walker can
still be the main guy there and Rice can be
a wide receiver one? Or should I take this offer?
So I see stuff like this all the time where
there's a disappointing RB one he's splitting work with another back,
and someone goes and trade for the RB two on
that team. But you have to think about where that
(17:04):
puts your fantasy team, what kind of choices you're gonna
have to make each week. By trading for Sharbonay, you're
not all of a sudden getting better production from your
running back spot. You're now using two roster spots for
Seattle's backfield production, and you more than likely won't be
starting both of those running backs in your lineup in
the same week. Now. Of course, Walker gets more valuable
(17:26):
if Sharbonay gets hurt and vice versa. But this is
the same sort of idea that I talked about before
with ambiguous backfields. Capturing backfields isn't really the thing that
you want to do, because we know the majority of
backfields they're not gonna give us multiple Top ten, Top
twenty running backs. Honestly, trading for Sharbonay would actually make
(17:47):
more sense if Kenneth Walker was a bell cow in
Week one, because then you could say, Okay, we knew
that Walker was coming to the season injured. We know
he has an injury history. Maybe he's a little injury prone,
But now I have insurance for that and what could
be a good rushing offense. So I'm gonna have Zach Sharboney.
I'm not even super into handcuffing this early in the season,
(18:08):
but that actually makes more sense than trading for a
player who's in a split backfield. And honestly, it feels
like people were acting as though Zach Sharboney was a workhorse.
In Week one. He saw two more carries than Kenneth Walker.
Walker actually saw more work through the air. Now, if
there's one player who I'd be concerned about after Week
one versus where we drafted him, it's definitely Kenneth Walker.
(18:31):
He fell in my rankings when looking at my draft
rankings versus my rest of season rankings. Now, I've always
thought that Zach Sharboney was good. Coaching staffs haven't. They
haven't given Sharbonay and Walker this kind of split, and
it's alarming. That this split is happening with a new
offensive coordinator, so we need to react. I bumped Walker
(18:53):
down my rankings, but I don't think we should overreact.
I don't think Kenneth Walker is necessarily toast. It's not
like Seattle was super effective offensively in Week one and
Walker was coming off that injury. Maybe he's not one
hundred percent. Look if you want to sell low on
Walker because you're nervous of what's to come, I don't
think that's some invalid or stupid thing to do. I
(19:15):
still prefer him to Zach Sharbonay, and I prefer him
to a lot of the RB three type running backs
out there because we know the upside exists. We know
it's there with Walker, and even if Sharbonay is there,
we also have contingent upside with Kenneth Walker too, not
just Sharps. Sharboney can get hurt too, So I think
Walker's more of a hold. I'm just trying to be
(19:37):
rational about this. I shared some data last week on
the Late Round Fantasy Football show where I talked about
when current season points per game becomes more predictive than
average RAPT position, and after Week one, we're not even
close to that point yet. Now that's across an entire sample,
but it tells us that there's tons and tons of
variants still early on in the season. But when it
(20:00):
comes to combining forces and getting both running Max and
your fantasy team, you should actually run away from that
kind of strategy, not towards it. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you get
subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are best artshing for you pretty much anywhere podcasts
can be found, and don't fit to follow me on
Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks
(20:23):
for listening everyone. I got a Late Round Perspectives episode
dropping later today, hope you listen to that, and then
tomorrow within the podcast feed you'll get an episode of
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. But if you want
to just watch that show live, you can do that
on YouTube as well. Kitchen and I will be live
at one pm Eastern on Friday, so today, and that's
on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot
(20:45):
com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone,
greatly appreciate you. Have a great weekend and enjoy week two,
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