1024: 10 Trends for Week 4

On this week's 10 Trends episode, JJ talks about the Washington backfield, Trevor Lawrence, trouble in Houston, and so much more.

 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.
J J zacher Resa, what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson
in this episode ten twenty four of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in.
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(00:44):
and why in Connecticut called eight eight seven eight nine
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dot com slash promotions. We've got ten trends to talk
about today, Let's do it. I compare my rest of
season rankings to other rankers in the industry each week,

(01:04):
and one player I'm a lot higher on versus that
market is quin Shawn Judkins, and I don't think it's
about being super bowlish on him. I just think the
market doesn't seem to like him at all. In Week three,
Judkins led that Brown's backfield with a fifty five percent snapshare.
Dylan Samson played just five snaps. Now, we're working off
of small samples, but Judkins he's seen a forty three

(01:27):
percent success rate so far. According to next Gen Stats,
Samson and Jerome Ford are under the thirty percent mark.
Judkins has the best rushing yards over expected per attempt too.
He just passes the eye test. He's really good between
the tackles. He's shown his ability already to create some
bigger plays. He's the only Browns running back with a

(01:47):
ten plus yard carry and he has three of them. Again,
small samples, but this matches the kind of profile that
he had in the ZAP model. He was a really
solid prospect. However, he was a really solid with a
questionable receiving profile. And that's why I'm not like amazingly
bullish here. This is why I'm surprised that I was

(02:07):
so far ahead of the market. Cleveland had a close
game last week, and Judkins still saw just a fifty
five percent snapshare, and according to Fantasy Life data, he
played zero long down and distance snaps and he played
just seventeen percent of their two minute snaps. I think
it can be a really solid contributor, but I'm not
sure we're gonna see a crazy ceiling across this season.

(02:30):
His receiving role is probably gonna be limited. Fortunately, though,
Cleveland's defense did play well last week and they have
pieces to be a good unit, which means maybe we
get closer game scripts for the Browns than we initially expected.
That would go a long way for Quinn Shawn Judkins.
The Dallas Cowboys secondary has been horrendous to start the year.

(02:52):
I like to adjust passing yards, and I do it
at running back with rushing yards too, but I like
to adjust passing yards based on the opponents a certain
defense place. It's obviously only been three weeks. We don't
have a ton to adjust with, But so far this year,
Dallas has allowed three hundred passing yards per game they
face Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurtz, and Russell Wilson. Those teams,

(03:15):
the Bears, Eagles, and Giants have averaged two hundred and
twenty two passing yards per game. When you average them out,
that means Dallas is allowing about seventy eight more yards
to be thrown on them versus expected, which is by
far the worst in the league. Second worst is Cincinnati
at fifty one point seven. It feels like that Packers
passing attack this week can have a nice bounce back.

(03:40):
The Commander's backfield is kind of interesting to me. In
Week three, the first without Austin Eckler, Bill Krosky Merritt
led that backfield with a thirty nine point seven percent snapshare,
which is quite literally the definition of a three headed monster.
Chris Rodriguez led the group with eleven rushes, and that
was the highest single game rush attempt total for any
Washington running back this season. McNichols had that big touchdown,

(04:03):
but he still served as primarily the pass catching back.
It's a mess right now, But I have to be honest.
I almost made Crosskey Merritt a by candidate in the
fifteen Transaction Show this week. Not because I think next
week the backfield's suddenly going to be his, but the
sentiment across fantasy football is that this is a backfield
that you generally want to avoid because they're splitting work, aka,

(04:25):
the backfield pieces are pretty cheap. This is the same
concept of ambiguous backfields during draft time. It's just we're
in the middle of the season, so there's data to
back it up. But backfields can shift as the season
goes on, especially when we're talking about a seventh round
rookie running back. Why should we assume Crosskey Merritt is
only going to see a thirty nine percent snapshare rest

(04:46):
of season. We need to still project how this backfield
might unfold. And if you're betting on one player, it's
got to be Bill right. Not only is he the
youthful one with potential upside, we generally know what we're
getting with McNichols and Rodriguez, but the data this year
for JCM has actually looked good. He's got a fifty
percent success rate on his twenty two carries, and among

(05:08):
twenty plus attempt running backs, he's top ten in the
league in yards after contact per attempt. That's according to PFF. Now, look,
there's obviously a chance of this backfield just stays like this,
but that's all baked into Crosskey Marrit's value right now,
it wouldn't surprise me if he's something that I talk
about on the fifteen Transaction Show in the future. But
if you want to stash him right now, feel free.

(05:32):
Another potential by candidate right now is Bucky Irving, but
I don't know if anyone's really selling. Tampa Bay has
seen eighty six percent of their offensive touchdown so far
this year come via the pass. That's a number that's
highly unlikely to keep up, just based on what we've
seen from teams in the past. Meanwhile, Irving is seeing
really consistent target shairs. He's been at thirteen percent, seventeen percent,

(05:54):
and fourteen percent over his three games this year, and
PFF's expected Fantasy points model well says that he should
be scoring one and a half more points than he's
currently scoring. He's just a super legit player and his
usage has been really strong to start the year. I
doubt anyone's really panicking, but if you are even a
little bit, don't now. Speaking of that expected Fantasy points model,

(06:19):
the biggest regression Candon Nolla football right now looks like
Chris Olave. Based on his usage, it says that he
should be scoring eight more PPR points than he's currently
scoring per game, and that's pretty wild. That would put
him over twenty PPR points per game. When you dig in,
it kind of makes sense. He's seen target shares of
thirty two thirty four percent in his three games this year,

(06:43):
and since the Saints run at a fast pace and
they're in these negative game scripts, that's resulted in thirteen,
ten and fourteen targets. He's also seen four red zone targets,
one of the higher marks in football. Now, with that
being said, he's going to underperform in a metric like
this because that offens that he's in is not very
strong and he's gonna lack touchdowns. He still only has

(07:03):
one target within the opponent's ten yard line, and we
know the Saints aren't gonna throw for a lot of scores. Regardless,
he's a solid PPR asset who should probably be performing
even better than he currently is for as good as
Justin Herbert and that Chargers passing attack has been. You
want to hear something kind of crazy. Accord to my
adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, they've actually faced the toughest

(07:27):
schedule this year for quarterbacks, and that's by median opponent.
So far, the Chargers have gone up against the Chiefs,
the Raiders, and the Broncos according to those numbers, which
again it's early. These numbers are not set in stone
at all. It's just interesting, but the Chiefs are the
third toughest matchup for quarterbacks right now by adjusted points allowed.
The Raiders are the eleventh toughest, and the Broncos are

(07:48):
the fourth toughest. To give you an idea of how
this is calculated, the Chiefs have played the Eagles and
the Giants outside of the Chargers. Jalen Hurts only scored
eleven and a half points against them, Russell Wilson five
point one, but Justin Herbert scored twenty seven point nine.
The Raiders are the easiest opponent that Herbert's faced, and
they've been okay at giving up fantasy points to the position.

(08:10):
But since I'm talking about median opponent here, that would
be Denver, and we've seen them hold cam Moore to
two and a half points, Daniel Jones to twenty two
point eight, and then Justin Herbert himself to fourteen point six.
I just thought it was kind of interesting that despite
playing so well, Herbert hasn't even done it against the
easiest opponents. In the world, even after we get a

(08:31):
large sample, I highly doubt that we're going to look
at Denver in Kansas City as an easy opponent for quarterbacks.
So props to Justin Herbert in that passing attack. Kyle
Pitts is getting a lot more run this year. He's
got a route participation rate of ninety one percent on
the season. That's according to PFF. He's had back to
back games with a ninety six percent route rate. For

(08:53):
some perspective, Pitts was at a seventy five percent route
participation rate last year. The year before that it was
seventy seven percent. This has made him legitimately usable. You
just have to hope that the Falcons can turn things around.
As it stands, Michael Pennix is the second worst passer
rating in a clean pocket this season, ahead of only
JJ McCarthy. Now, speaking of being kept clean in the pocket,

(09:18):
I'm willing to be patient with quarterbacks and players who
are in new offenses, but this has not been a
good start to the twenty twenty five season for Trevor Lawrence.
According to PFF, Trevor Lawrence has only been better than
JJ McCarthy. Michael Pennix and cam Ward in a clean
pocket this year. That's according to passer rating. And here's
the kicker. Lawrence really isn't taking many pressures. According to

(09:40):
Next Gen Stats, only Buffalo has faced a pressure at
a lower rate than the Jags this season. Now, there
have been some key drops from Jags receivers this year,
there's no doubt, but this is very much a Trevor
Lawrence problem, and it's hurting the entire offense. From a
fantasy perspective, I have not been I'm a fan of
Nick Kyley as Houston's offensive coordinator. We know that things

(10:03):
like pre snap motion work. We know that play action
works even when you don't have a super solid run game.
But he's not doing any of that. According to next
Sten Stats, Houston rings dead last and play action rate
their bottom four in plays run with pre snap motion.
Houston's fourteen point four percent play action rate would have
tied for last in twenty twenty four two. Meanwhile, you

(10:26):
look at the top of the list in play action
passing this year, and it's Good Team after Good Team.
The Colts are first, then it's the Rams, the Packers,
the Chargers, and the Lions. It may sound silly, but
this is just another reason why I'm worried that the
Texans won't be able to significantly turn this thing around.
Combine with that awful offensive line play, it's looking kind

(10:47):
of bleak. The last trend this week is about the
Broncos backfield. I've got to send an update about this
because it could open things up for the running backs there.
Tyler Biday was getting more work in that backfield than
we expected in weeks one and two. I say was
because that wasn't the case in week three and week three,
but a snapshare went from twenty two percent in week

(11:08):
two to just four percent. He only ran a route
on three percent of Denver's dropbacks. He was around the
twenty eight percent range in weeks one and two. Now,
you'd think that'd really help R. J. Harvey, but Harvey
basically saw the exact same peripherals in week three. JK.
Dobbins was the one who won big. He went from
like a fifty percent snapshare to almost a seventy percent share.

(11:32):
He ran a route on fifty five percent of Denver's
dropbacks in week three versus the thirty percent that he
was at in weeks one and two. Basically Tyler Biday
didn't play as much. It's good news for Dobbins directly
right now, but it should help R J. Harvey if
this keeps up. We just need this to be a
two headed backfield, not a three headed one. That's it

(11:54):
for today's show, though, Thanks Tolvy for listening. If you
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listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper
Show