September 26, 2025 • 22 mins
Should fantasy managers do whatever it takes to trade Chase Brown right now? Is Travis Etienne still a sell? Is Drake London still a buy? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zapperreathay
je zacher reefon What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten to twenty six of the Late
Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
(00:44):
New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, NY,
and Connecticut call eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibility restarchs apply ends
December thirty, first c terms at DraftKings dot com slash Promotions. Now,
let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this
week is from Patrick on Patreon. It says, Hi, JJ,
(01:04):
I want to know your thoughts on Jayden Blue. Can
you speculate to what might be holding him back and
where do you have him rest of season compared to
guys like Woody Marx and Burchard Smith. Should I continue
to hold on to Blue for when he finally gets
his chance or is it time to let him go?
Thanks for all your great content and community. So I
know after week one I said to hold Jaden Blue,
(01:25):
and now it's been three weeks and he hasn't been playing. Unfortunately,
after week one, I didn't say Javonte Williams was a
cell or else I'd be really cooked. But in all seriousness,
holding or not holding Blue, it's gonna come down to
your own roster and the depth of your league. I
play in leagues that are deep, not all of them,
but a lot of them, and in those leagues you
can afford to hold on to a player like Blue
(01:47):
and most twelve teamers, you could have probably dropped him
last week when he was inactive. Now that being said,
I'm kind of interested to see what happens with Cedee
Lamb being out if they want to get another dynamic
player in that offense. So maybe wait and see if
he's inactive once again this week. But like the question
of speculating on what might be holding him back. The
(02:07):
dude was a Day three pick. I know that I
liked him as a prospect. I'm not running away from that.
I thought he was a good redraft selection and that
was wrong more than likely. But I've come across this
a lot in the first few weeks this season. A
lot of the I can't believe I drafted player X
when that player isn't doing anything right now, like Travis Hunter.
People are so upset that they drafted Hunter when he's
(02:29):
not playing as much as we expected on offense. Look, guys,
you're gonna have a lot of misses in fantasy football.
It's why me, as an analyst, it would be really
stupid for me to come on my show and act
like I don't miss anything.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I'm gonna miss.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Stuff all the time, so is everybody else. That's the
way this game is played. You're often gonna have more
misses than hits because they're only gonna be a handful
of true league winners every single year. If you spend
a sixth round pick on Travis Hunter and Travis Hunter Bus,
you're not completely screwed at that moment. You took a
(03:03):
shot on upside, which is exactly what you should do
in fantasy football, because again, there are only a handful
of league winners. It's just that i'd say for Hunter,
like the tenth percentile outcome is currently hitting. A lot
of things have not gone his way from a fantasy perspective,
and that's unfortunate. But it's gonna happen all the time,
and you need to stop assuming or thinking that every
(03:24):
move that you make is going to be perfection. We're
playing a game where we're trying to forecast how humans
are going to perform in a sport. Same exact thing
with Jayden Blue. He might not be NFL ready period.
He's not the typical NFL running back. He's undersized, he
didn't see a lot of work in college. I think
he's a good pass catcher, he's dynamic, but he's certainly
(03:47):
not typical. And it hasn't happened, at least not yet.
I don't know exactly why it hasn't happened, because I
can't evaluate anything he hasn't been on the field. Only
the coaching staff knows. But it's not like he was
a slam dunked prospect. We're not talking about Ashton Genty here.
This goes into another question that I got this week
(04:07):
from at eighties underscore hairband on Twitter. They asked to
talk about Caleb Johnson and what was missed with his
evaluation if this is just an Arthur Smith Shenanigan's thing,
and then they finished by saying, quote, I'm sick to
my stomach passing on Warren in a couple of leagues
and drafting this guy, unfortunately, one of the things that
has gone my way this year, unlike the Jayden Blu stuff.
(04:29):
Was liking Jalen Warren more than Caleb Johnson. But I
feel for people who drafted Johnson. It's not like I
thought that he was a horrible, horrible draft pick. It's
not like I thought that he would be inactive in
Week three. I thought he had a pretty complete profile
as a prospect. But it's impossible to know exactly what's
going on when we haven't actually had an opportunity to
(04:50):
evaluate these players on a football field. We're taking the
coaching staff's word for it. They're saying that they're not capable,
they're not ready. All we've really seen from Caleb J.
Johnson is a bonehead mistake on a kick return and
then two random rush attempts where the offensive line didn't
get that much push.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
It's okay to not have.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Full answers for some of this stuff, but we should
understand history and typically when things go down a certain
way with how coaches handle their players, typically those coaches
aren't gonna be massively, massively incorrect. Like if Caleb Johnson
doesn't play a decent number of snaps this season, he's
almost definitely not going to become something in fantasy football.
(05:29):
Same deal with Jayden Blue. So we move on to
the players that we have seen that we can evaluate wood.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
He Marx.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
I think he's looked a part, and honestly, he's played
a little bit bigger than what his frame suggests. I
like what I see and I like the trajectory on
the peripherals front. No, I don't think he's going to
turn into a league winner the same way that I
think bea shall Tutan could, But I think Marx can
be usable. Brishard Smith tough to really go all in
(05:56):
when he's a little bit smaller. But I'm still holding
out some hope that the Chiefs could use them in
like a Jeric McKinnon like role, because they need to
do something with those running backs. And when a situation
calls for a change, I want to be ahead of
that potential change. I just think that we need to
take a step back and remember that these were all
relatively low cost players. Caleb Johnson aside, they had pretty
(06:19):
low odds of hitting in the first place. I did
an episode of the show back in March on the
truth about Day three draft selections. It's so rare for
these guys to be consistent fantasy starters. It doesn't mean
that we shouldn't.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Throw those darts.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
We should because the alternatives in the late rounds of
your draft, the alternatives on the waiver wire, they're not.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Very good either.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
But we're lucky to have just two or three decent
hits from Day three each year, just like we're lucky
to have two or three decent hits off the waiver
wire for veterans. So those are my thoughts. Hopefully you
were able to take away something from my rambling. I
think the general message here is that it's okay to
not have an answer for some things. We're making educated
guesses based on the information that we have, and with
(06:59):
a player like Blue, we basically have no information aside
from the fact that he can't dress, but we have
to take the coach's word for it to some degree
and not just have take lock forever.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
This last question is from Ian.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
It says, what's the panic level for guys like Chase
Brown and Brian Thomas Junior who had preseason top ten
ranks but are currently underperforming due to structural issues like
bad offenses and bad quarterback play? At what point are
they a panic sell?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
If not? Now?
Speaker 1 (07:29):
So, I don't think panic selling anyone is a really
good idea because that tells me that you're doing it
on emotion and not logic. I'll be honest, though I've
been doing this for thirteen years now, I've seen some stuff,
but this is, by far, without a doubt, the most
panic that the fantasy football community has ever been to
start a season. It's been absolutely wild seeing how people
(07:52):
are reacting to things. I can't stress enough how important
it is to just look at this stuff as rationally
as you can and remember that one or two games,
three games is not that big of a sample size.
You of course have to react, and I've reacted. Brian
Thomas Junior, Chase Brown, They've fallen in my rest of
season rankings. But the Chase brown stuff in particular has
(08:15):
been absolutely insane to me this week. I've had emails
from people asking if they should drop Chase brown for
a random flyer like wood he Marks. Can we just
relax for a minute here, I'm saying that to myself too,
because I'm getting worked up. But even this question, this
isn't as much of a panic. But I got this
question on Patreon from Jason. It says, Hey, JJ, what
(08:37):
in the world do we do with Chase Brown Do
I try and move on from him for a lower
tier running back? Do I have to hold The Bengals
offense looks like a sinking ship.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
The Bengals offense has played one game, one game without
Joe Burrow, and it was on the road against a
ferocious defense where the Bengals made some really costly mistakes
early and then things spiraled one game. Now, I said
on the show last week that I did think people
were a little bit too bullish on Jake Browning. But
it's amazing how fast all that can change. Now people
(09:10):
are acting Cincinnati, He's never gonna score a touchdown again,
And here I am sitting here telling you all to
at least give that game some context.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Now, Look, I'm.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Absolutely worried about how bad that Bengals offensive line looked
in Week three. Chase Brown had one rush where he
was first touched past the line of scrimmage. That's what
I counted after watching it. I mean, they were absolutely manhandled.
But there was an interesting tweet from my friend Jacob
Gibbs this week where he looked into this. He said,
it's been rough for Chase Brown and Cincinnati's offensive line,
but it's worth noting that things can't possibly remain this
(09:42):
bad all year. Over the last ten years, the lowest
of team's running back group has finished in yards before
contact was point six to zero. The Bengals are currently
at point one point eight. Only nine percent of teams
over the last ten years have finished below one point
zero yards before contact. Not only that, but Chase Brown
had a nineteen percent target share in that game, and
(10:05):
in a normal gamescript environment, he's gonna see a healthy
running back rush share. Now, his fantasy outlook is going
to take a hit, because any running back who loses
his star quarterback won't have as many scoring opportunities. But
his peripheral should still look fine even if he's not
as efficient, and why aren't people this emotional about other
volume based runners behind bad offensive lines or in bad
(10:26):
offensive environments.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
We're only doing it.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
With Chase Brown because expectations were so high entering the year.
But things will change because he lost Joe Burrow. He
lost one of the best quarterbacks in all of football.
So my stance on Chase Brown as to hold selling
him now would definitely be selling pretty low given how
the market has reacted and given what I've seen this week,
unless you can get like high end RB two value
(10:49):
out of him right now. Meanwhile, with Brian Thomas Junior,
I just don't think you're gonna get good value for
him right now. Like there are instances where selling low
does make sense, I just don't th most those fantasy
managers are going to be super excited right now to
buy Brian Thomas. And he does still have decent peripherals,
and we know he was and is a very talented
(11:09):
up and coming player. But look, it's possible that Thomas
plays well below expectation this year. I dug into this
a little bit. If you go back to twenty eleven
and you look at all the rookie wide receivers since then,
who have scored fourteen or more PPR points per game.
You get thirteen wide receivers outside of last year. Thomas
was almost at seventeen PPR points per game last season,
(11:31):
So I'm making these parameters pretty loose now. Of the
thirteen rookie wide receivers since twenty eleven who scored fourteen
or more PPR points per game, twelve of those receivers
played at least eight games in year two. Actually, all
but one of them played at least twelve games. Kelvin
Benjamin was the odd man out of those twelve receivers
who played significant time the following year. There were three
(11:52):
who kind of underperformed in PPR points per game in
that year too, Tank Dell, Brandon Auk, and Keenan Allen.
Everyone else scored at least fifteen VPR points per game.
So it's a really really good hit rate, but it's
not a one hundred percent hit rate, because nothing is
in fantasy football. Keenon Allen's one of the three who
was drafted relatively high. He had a wide receiver eleven
(12:14):
price tag that year. His second year in the league.
Ayuk was wide receiver twenty two. Tank Dell wide receiver
twenty nine. Now, don't get me wrong, Brian Thomas had
higher expectations. In my opinion, the year two model gave
him a score above ninety nine. Keton Allen was at
ninety seven, Brandan Ayuk ninety six. But they all had
really good rookie seasons and then we're heading into year two. Now,
(12:36):
the good news here is that Allan and Ayyuk are
good players when they're healthy.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
That should be good for Brian Thomas long term.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Now the bad news is that we do have examples
of this actually kind of happening where you drafted a
player really high who's coming off a great rookie season
and they disappoint. You could even apply this to Lad
McConkey to some degree. Now, I'm not gonna assume that's
gonna happen. And like I said, I think Thomas's peripherals
have still largely been fine, and I think the Jags
(13:04):
offense conceptually they've looked fine too. I like what I'm seeing.
They're just not executing very well. But I doubt we
get to the point where Brian Thomas is living up
to his draft day cost, where he's averaging like sixteen
seventeen PPR points per game. I currently have him as
a low end wide receiver one, and when you hear that,
you're gonna say, wow, that's really high. But the wide
(13:25):
receiver position is kind of a mess throughout right now.
Hopefully we get some clarity soon. This aash Christ is
from td May. It says, curious your expectations for Jackson
Dart as a streamer or two quarterback option going forward?
He obviously gets a tough schedule here to start the
next five games or so, but do we have any
optimism he settles into a near every week option in
(13:47):
two quarterback leagues and two quarterback leagues. I have plenty
of optimism. Yeah, he's gonna bring some rushing production to
the table and that's gonna help elevate his floor, which
is very necessary for a rookie quarterback. The weapons in
New York really aren't bad. I think they compliment each
other really well. But like you said, the schedule's tough.
They get the Chargers, then the Saints in New Orleans,
(14:08):
the Eagles, Broncos and Eagles over their next five, but
then after that it does open up a little bit.
So yeah, I'm into Jackson dark he was someone I
liked as a prospect. He's got rushing upside and he's
got something that like psycho mentality that Josh Allen has.
He's gonna be really fun to watch. This NAXT question
is about a player that I got a lot of
(14:30):
questions about this week. It's an email and it says
I'm in multiple leagues and I have Drake London in
half of them. Recently I was offered Jalen Warren for London.
I want to believe in the talent, but the quarterback
play is currently subpar. What do you do in these situations?
You have to ask yourself the question is the player bad?
And the answer for Drake London is that he's not bad.
(14:50):
He's a very good wide receiver. Then you have to
ask yourself is this current situation sustainable? And to me,
I don't think we should just assume that the Falcons
are gonna throw for a hundred fifty passing yards a game.
They were awful in Week three and that's what's really
scaring us. At least in Week two they faced Minnesota
and they had a pretty reasonable game script to play with.
(15:11):
Michael Pennox wasn't great, but he was legitimately terrible in
Week three, but guys, bad games can happen. I'm far
from a Michael Pennock's apologist, and he has not been good,
but we have to understand that he's had six career starts.
We should be open to him having a bad game,
(15:31):
even in a good spot. Meanwhile, London was banged up
heading into that Week two game and then the team
was horrible in Week three regardless, though he still hit
nineteen percent target shaars after a thirty five percent target
share in Week one. Now, I like Darnell Mooney throughout
the draft process, and I like him right now as
a by low, and maybe he has a bigger role
than some expected, but I still think London settles in
(15:54):
around like a twenty five percent target share this year,
and with games upcoming against good opponents were the thout
are at home and they're likely going to have to
pass more. I have faith in Drake London where there's
a backbone of consistently strong production, where he's done it
with multiple quarterbacks, multiple bad quarterbacks. I have more faith
in London than I do Brian Thomas. That's why I
(16:16):
have him ranked well ahead of him right now. So
hold tight with London and as much as I love
Jalen Warren, don't trade away Drake London to get Jalen Warren.
If that's Drake London's market value, people should be buying
like crazy right now. I got another email. This one's
from Teddy. It says you had Travistn as a cell
last week on the fifteen Transaction Show.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Do you still feel like he's a cell? Yes? I
actually think he might be more of a cell. I've
seen him ranked.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
As a low end RB one and rest of season
rankings across the industry. This week, I think he's a
mid range to possibly lower end RB two. The narrative
surrounding Travis Etn has been a lot stronger than his
actual usage in that backfield. Right now, he's sitting with
a rush air that's outside the top twenty at the position.
He's got a route share that's also outside the top twenty.
(17:05):
He's a target share that's well outside the top twenty.
His short down and distant snapshare according to Fantasy Life data,
also well outside the top twenty. And he's got a
rookie running back in Beashall Tutan who could easily steal
more work as the season goes on. Oh and by
the way, he scored last week, but the Texans literally
let him score at the end of that game to
get the ball back. So yes, etns is sell for me.
(17:28):
If you can get low end RB one or high
end RB two prices for him, I would do it.
The last question this week is from Kevin on Patreon
and says, with the by candidates you suggest on Tuesdays,
I'm always curious as to how aggressively we should be
going after them. Just to exemplify from this week, you
mentioned Josh Jacobs as a bye should be looking to
trade one of my current running backs, Cook Warren Genty
(17:50):
for him.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Thanks.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
So, I wanted to throw this question in this week's
mailbag because I've gotten a ton of questions this year
that's around how to sort of use my content. But
I also think this goes back to my general trade
philosophy that I need to repeat on the show. When
you hear me say to buy a running back like
this week Josh Jacobs, your mind shouldn't automatically go to
trading away one of your running backs for Josh Jacobs.
(18:13):
Straight up, I'm actually pretty against a one for one
trade like that, because trade should help both parties, and
a one for one deal where you're trading the same position,
there's going to be a loser. Get more creative with
your trade offers, find ways to help both teams. But
on the fifty Transaction show, I'm giving buy and sell
recommendations just based on the players who I think should
(18:34):
be able to perform better as the season goes on,
and I try to overlay that on top of general
market sentiment or how the market is feeling about those players.
And that's a very subjective thing to do, especially I'm
doing that show on Monday, so you guys can listen
to it on Tuesday, so I'm doing it early in
the week. But honestly, this is similar to my players
the target and avoid in the draft guide each year, like, yeah,
(18:56):
those are the players that I generally draft, but you
shouldn't be getting those players at all. My rankings and tiers.
They're there to give you an idea of how I
viewed one player versus another. I got so many emails
over the summer and people were asking if the players
the target list should override my rankings. No, of course not.
I'm just giving you guys, some context on players that
(19:17):
my rankings tend to like more or less than the market.
It doesn't mean I'm getting those players no matter what,
or I'm avoiding those players no matter what. In fact,
there are gonna be some players on my avoids list
who I probably didn't even have ranked that much differently
than your market than your draft, and if you followed
my rankings and tiers, you might have actually drafted them.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
That's happened to me plenty of times in the past.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Because there's no set market, there's no one thing that
is the market, at least that you can quantify. When
I say that I'm referencing the market, I'm just generalizing. Look, guys,
I'm merely here to give you recommendations, and I want
you to be able to valuate your team, evaluate where
you're at, and decide if you want to act on
(20:01):
that information or not.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's all this is.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I don't want to be a fantasy football analyst who
just says, here, here are the players I like. Have
at it with nothing more. What good does that do.
We're playing this game to have fun, to escape the
insanity of the real world, because it's a hobby that
we all enjoy. I want to show you, guys, how
I've won in the past and how I've been successful
in the past, and I don't want to do that
(20:26):
by just giving you my end results. I want to
show you the why that fifteen transaction show. It gives
you the recommendation, but then it explains the why. And look,
I want to help you be successful by recommending the
right transactions. Of course, nobody wants to be wrong, but
I also want you to truly understand the transaction so
(20:47):
you can apply the same logic to other moves in
your fantasy league.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
This is really just a long winded.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Way of me saying that you can and you should
take the recommendations, but make sure you listen to the context,
because I'll provide an explanation of the time a player
that we're looking at and what we're analyzing, at least
I try to, and from there you can make the
choice that's most logical for your fantasy teams. And look,
I can't answer the how aggressive question because everything in
(21:13):
fantasy football does come down to cost, and some managers
are gonna be really irrational, especially when it comes to trading.
I could say that Josh Jacobs is a bye and
that you should get them aggressively.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
But if the.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
Manager in your league only once James Cook and Molik neighbors,
then you shouldn't be buying Josh Jacobs. Throughout my time
as a fantasy analyst, I've had a lot of people
take something from the fifteen Transaction show and then hit
me up on social media with a screenshot of a
trade that just went down, and they're like, thanks to you,
I got this player that you called a bye and
(21:44):
then in that trade they basically lost the trade. It
was a bad trade for them to make. You can't
make those transactions no matter what. You still have to
apply your own logic for your own team. All I
can do when I'm speaking to an audience of people
is give you general guidance. From there, you have to
make what you think is the best decision based on
(22:06):
all the factors that I talk about on the show
each week. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to
all of you for listening. If you subscribed to the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a
betrotrating for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and don't for it to follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I got a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping later today.
I will also be live on the Late Round Fantasy
(22:29):
Football YouTube channel at one pm Eastern for the Late
Round Fantasy Football Show, but if you miss it, that'll
drop in the podcast feed tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Thanks for listening everyone. Greatly appreciate all of you. Have
a great weekend.
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zapperreathay
je zacher reefon What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten to twenty six of the Late
Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
(00:44):
New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, NY,
and Connecticut call eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibility restarchs apply ends
December thirty, first c terms at DraftKings dot com slash Promotions. Now,
let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this
week is from Patrick on Patreon. It says, Hi, JJ,
(01:04):
I want to know your thoughts on Jayden Blue. Can
you speculate to what might be holding him back and
where do you have him rest of season compared to
guys like Woody Marx and Burchard Smith. Should I continue
to hold on to Blue for when he finally gets
his chance or is it time to let him go?
Thanks for all your great content and community. So I
know after week one I said to hold Jaden Blue,
(01:25):
and now it's been three weeks and he hasn't been playing. Unfortunately,
after week one, I didn't say Javonte Williams was a
cell or else I'd be really cooked. But in all seriousness,
holding or not holding Blue, it's gonna come down to
your own roster and the depth of your league. I
play in leagues that are deep, not all of them,
but a lot of them, and in those leagues you
can afford to hold on to a player like Blue
(01:47):
and most twelve teamers, you could have probably dropped him
last week when he was inactive. Now that being said,
I'm kind of interested to see what happens with Cedee
Lamb being out if they want to get another dynamic
player in that offense. So maybe wait and see if
he's inactive once again this week. But like the question
of speculating on what might be holding him back. The
(02:07):
dude was a Day three pick. I know that I
liked him as a prospect. I'm not running away from that.
I thought he was a good redraft selection and that
was wrong more than likely. But I've come across this
a lot in the first few weeks this season. A
lot of the I can't believe I drafted player X
when that player isn't doing anything right now, like Travis Hunter.
People are so upset that they drafted Hunter when he's
(02:29):
not playing as much as we expected on offense. Look, guys,
you're gonna have a lot of misses in fantasy football.
It's why me, as an analyst, it would be really
stupid for me to come on my show and act
like I don't miss anything.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I'm gonna miss.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Stuff all the time, so is everybody else. That's the
way this game is played. You're often gonna have more
misses than hits because they're only gonna be a handful
of true league winners every single year. If you spend
a sixth round pick on Travis Hunter and Travis Hunter Bus,
you're not completely screwed at that moment. You took a
(03:03):
shot on upside, which is exactly what you should do
in fantasy football, because again, there are only a handful
of league winners. It's just that i'd say for Hunter,
like the tenth percentile outcome is currently hitting. A lot
of things have not gone his way from a fantasy perspective,
and that's unfortunate. But it's gonna happen all the time,
and you need to stop assuming or thinking that every
(03:24):
move that you make is going to be perfection. We're
playing a game where we're trying to forecast how humans
are going to perform in a sport. Same exact thing
with Jayden Blue. He might not be NFL ready period.
He's not the typical NFL running back. He's undersized, he
didn't see a lot of work in college. I think
he's a good pass catcher, he's dynamic, but he's certainly
(03:47):
not typical. And it hasn't happened, at least not yet.
I don't know exactly why it hasn't happened, because I
can't evaluate anything he hasn't been on the field. Only
the coaching staff knows. But it's not like he was
a slam dunked prospect. We're not talking about Ashton Genty here.
This goes into another question that I got this week
(04:07):
from at eighties underscore hairband on Twitter. They asked to
talk about Caleb Johnson and what was missed with his
evaluation if this is just an Arthur Smith Shenanigan's thing,
and then they finished by saying, quote, I'm sick to
my stomach passing on Warren in a couple of leagues
and drafting this guy, unfortunately, one of the things that
has gone my way this year, unlike the Jayden Blu stuff.
(04:29):
Was liking Jalen Warren more than Caleb Johnson. But I
feel for people who drafted Johnson. It's not like I
thought that he was a horrible, horrible draft pick. It's
not like I thought that he would be inactive in
Week three. I thought he had a pretty complete profile
as a prospect. But it's impossible to know exactly what's
going on when we haven't actually had an opportunity to
(04:50):
evaluate these players on a football field. We're taking the
coaching staff's word for it. They're saying that they're not capable,
they're not ready. All we've really seen from Caleb J.
Johnson is a bonehead mistake on a kick return and
then two random rush attempts where the offensive line didn't
get that much push.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
It's okay to not have.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Full answers for some of this stuff, but we should
understand history and typically when things go down a certain
way with how coaches handle their players, typically those coaches
aren't gonna be massively, massively incorrect. Like if Caleb Johnson
doesn't play a decent number of snaps this season, he's
almost definitely not going to become something in fantasy football.
(05:29):
Same deal with Jayden Blue. So we move on to
the players that we have seen that we can evaluate wood.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
He Marx.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
I think he's looked a part, and honestly, he's played
a little bit bigger than what his frame suggests. I
like what I see and I like the trajectory on
the peripherals front. No, I don't think he's going to
turn into a league winner the same way that I
think bea shall Tutan could, But I think Marx can
be usable. Brishard Smith tough to really go all in
(05:56):
when he's a little bit smaller. But I'm still holding
out some hope that the Chiefs could use them in
like a Jeric McKinnon like role, because they need to
do something with those running backs. And when a situation
calls for a change, I want to be ahead of
that potential change. I just think that we need to
take a step back and remember that these were all
relatively low cost players. Caleb Johnson aside, they had pretty
(06:19):
low odds of hitting in the first place. I did
an episode of the show back in March on the
truth about Day three draft selections. It's so rare for
these guys to be consistent fantasy starters. It doesn't mean
that we shouldn't.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Throw those darts.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
We should because the alternatives in the late rounds of
your draft, the alternatives on the waiver wire, they're not.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Very good either.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
But we're lucky to have just two or three decent
hits from Day three each year, just like we're lucky
to have two or three decent hits off the waiver
wire for veterans. So those are my thoughts. Hopefully you
were able to take away something from my rambling. I
think the general message here is that it's okay to
not have an answer for some things. We're making educated
guesses based on the information that we have, and with
(06:59):
a player like Blue, we basically have no information aside
from the fact that he can't dress, but we have
to take the coach's word for it to some degree
and not just have take lock forever.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
This last question is from Ian.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
It says, what's the panic level for guys like Chase
Brown and Brian Thomas Junior who had preseason top ten
ranks but are currently underperforming due to structural issues like
bad offenses and bad quarterback play? At what point are
they a panic sell?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
If not? Now?
Speaker 1 (07:29):
So, I don't think panic selling anyone is a really
good idea because that tells me that you're doing it
on emotion and not logic. I'll be honest, though I've
been doing this for thirteen years now, I've seen some stuff,
but this is, by far, without a doubt, the most
panic that the fantasy football community has ever been to
start a season. It's been absolutely wild seeing how people
(07:52):
are reacting to things. I can't stress enough how important
it is to just look at this stuff as rationally
as you can and remember that one or two games,
three games is not that big of a sample size.
You of course have to react, and I've reacted. Brian
Thomas Junior, Chase Brown, They've fallen in my rest of
season rankings. But the Chase brown stuff in particular has
(08:15):
been absolutely insane to me this week. I've had emails
from people asking if they should drop Chase brown for
a random flyer like wood he Marks. Can we just
relax for a minute here, I'm saying that to myself too,
because I'm getting worked up. But even this question, this
isn't as much of a panic. But I got this
question on Patreon from Jason. It says, Hey, JJ, what
(08:37):
in the world do we do with Chase Brown Do
I try and move on from him for a lower
tier running back? Do I have to hold The Bengals
offense looks like a sinking ship.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
The Bengals offense has played one game, one game without
Joe Burrow, and it was on the road against a
ferocious defense where the Bengals made some really costly mistakes
early and then things spiraled one game. Now, I said
on the show last week that I did think people
were a little bit too bullish on Jake Browning. But
it's amazing how fast all that can change. Now people
(09:10):
are acting Cincinnati, He's never gonna score a touchdown again,
And here I am sitting here telling you all to
at least give that game some context.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Now, Look, I'm.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Absolutely worried about how bad that Bengals offensive line looked
in Week three. Chase Brown had one rush where he
was first touched past the line of scrimmage. That's what
I counted after watching it. I mean, they were absolutely manhandled.
But there was an interesting tweet from my friend Jacob
Gibbs this week where he looked into this. He said,
it's been rough for Chase Brown and Cincinnati's offensive line,
but it's worth noting that things can't possibly remain this
(09:42):
bad all year. Over the last ten years, the lowest
of team's running back group has finished in yards before
contact was point six to zero. The Bengals are currently
at point one point eight. Only nine percent of teams
over the last ten years have finished below one point
zero yards before contact. Not only that, but Chase Brown
had a nineteen percent target share in that game, and
(10:05):
in a normal gamescript environment, he's gonna see a healthy
running back rush share. Now, his fantasy outlook is going
to take a hit, because any running back who loses
his star quarterback won't have as many scoring opportunities. But
his peripheral should still look fine even if he's not
as efficient, and why aren't people this emotional about other
volume based runners behind bad offensive lines or in bad
(10:26):
offensive environments.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
We're only doing it.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
With Chase Brown because expectations were so high entering the year.
But things will change because he lost Joe Burrow. He
lost one of the best quarterbacks in all of football.
So my stance on Chase Brown as to hold selling
him now would definitely be selling pretty low given how
the market has reacted and given what I've seen this week,
unless you can get like high end RB two value
(10:49):
out of him right now. Meanwhile, with Brian Thomas Junior,
I just don't think you're gonna get good value for
him right now. Like there are instances where selling low
does make sense, I just don't th most those fantasy
managers are going to be super excited right now to
buy Brian Thomas. And he does still have decent peripherals,
and we know he was and is a very talented
(11:09):
up and coming player. But look, it's possible that Thomas
plays well below expectation this year. I dug into this
a little bit. If you go back to twenty eleven
and you look at all the rookie wide receivers since then,
who have scored fourteen or more PPR points per game.
You get thirteen wide receivers outside of last year. Thomas
was almost at seventeen PPR points per game last season,
(11:31):
So I'm making these parameters pretty loose now. Of the
thirteen rookie wide receivers since twenty eleven who scored fourteen
or more PPR points per game, twelve of those receivers
played at least eight games in year two. Actually, all
but one of them played at least twelve games. Kelvin
Benjamin was the odd man out of those twelve receivers
who played significant time the following year. There were three
(11:52):
who kind of underperformed in PPR points per game in
that year too, Tank Dell, Brandon Auk, and Keenan Allen.
Everyone else scored at least fifteen VPR points per game.
So it's a really really good hit rate, but it's
not a one hundred percent hit rate, because nothing is
in fantasy football. Keenon Allen's one of the three who
was drafted relatively high. He had a wide receiver eleven
(12:14):
price tag that year. His second year in the league.
Ayuk was wide receiver twenty two. Tank Dell wide receiver
twenty nine. Now, don't get me wrong, Brian Thomas had
higher expectations. In my opinion, the year two model gave
him a score above ninety nine. Keton Allen was at
ninety seven, Brandan Ayuk ninety six. But they all had
really good rookie seasons and then we're heading into year two. Now,
(12:36):
the good news here is that Allan and Ayyuk are
good players when they're healthy.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
That should be good for Brian Thomas long term.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Now the bad news is that we do have examples
of this actually kind of happening where you drafted a
player really high who's coming off a great rookie season
and they disappoint. You could even apply this to Lad
McConkey to some degree. Now, I'm not gonna assume that's
gonna happen. And like I said, I think Thomas's peripherals
have still largely been fine, and I think the Jags
(13:04):
offense conceptually they've looked fine too. I like what I'm seeing.
They're just not executing very well. But I doubt we
get to the point where Brian Thomas is living up
to his draft day cost, where he's averaging like sixteen
seventeen PPR points per game. I currently have him as
a low end wide receiver one, and when you hear that,
you're gonna say, wow, that's really high. But the wide
(13:25):
receiver position is kind of a mess throughout right now.
Hopefully we get some clarity soon. This aash Christ is
from td May. It says, curious your expectations for Jackson
Dart as a streamer or two quarterback option going forward?
He obviously gets a tough schedule here to start the
next five games or so, but do we have any
optimism he settles into a near every week option in
(13:47):
two quarterback leagues and two quarterback leagues. I have plenty
of optimism. Yeah, he's gonna bring some rushing production to
the table and that's gonna help elevate his floor, which
is very necessary for a rookie quarterback. The weapons in
New York really aren't bad. I think they compliment each
other really well. But like you said, the schedule's tough.
They get the Chargers, then the Saints in New Orleans,
(14:08):
the Eagles, Broncos and Eagles over their next five, but
then after that it does open up a little bit.
So yeah, I'm into Jackson dark he was someone I
liked as a prospect. He's got rushing upside and he's
got something that like psycho mentality that Josh Allen has.
He's gonna be really fun to watch. This NAXT question
is about a player that I got a lot of
(14:30):
questions about this week. It's an email and it says
I'm in multiple leagues and I have Drake London in
half of them. Recently I was offered Jalen Warren for London.
I want to believe in the talent, but the quarterback
play is currently subpar. What do you do in these situations?
You have to ask yourself the question is the player bad?
And the answer for Drake London is that he's not bad.
(14:50):
He's a very good wide receiver. Then you have to
ask yourself is this current situation sustainable? And to me,
I don't think we should just assume that the Falcons
are gonna throw for a hundred fifty passing yards a game.
They were awful in Week three and that's what's really
scaring us. At least in Week two they faced Minnesota
and they had a pretty reasonable game script to play with.
(15:11):
Michael Pennox wasn't great, but he was legitimately terrible in
Week three, but guys, bad games can happen. I'm far
from a Michael Pennock's apologist, and he has not been good,
but we have to understand that he's had six career starts.
We should be open to him having a bad game,
(15:31):
even in a good spot. Meanwhile, London was banged up
heading into that Week two game and then the team
was horrible in Week three regardless, though he still hit
nineteen percent target shaars after a thirty five percent target
share in Week one. Now, I like Darnell Mooney throughout
the draft process, and I like him right now as
a by low, and maybe he has a bigger role
than some expected, but I still think London settles in
(15:54):
around like a twenty five percent target share this year,
and with games upcoming against good opponents were the thout
are at home and they're likely going to have to
pass more. I have faith in Drake London where there's
a backbone of consistently strong production, where he's done it
with multiple quarterbacks, multiple bad quarterbacks. I have more faith
in London than I do Brian Thomas. That's why I
(16:16):
have him ranked well ahead of him right now. So
hold tight with London and as much as I love
Jalen Warren, don't trade away Drake London to get Jalen Warren.
If that's Drake London's market value, people should be buying
like crazy right now. I got another email. This one's
from Teddy. It says you had Travistn as a cell
last week on the fifteen Transaction Show.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Do you still feel like he's a cell? Yes? I
actually think he might be more of a cell. I've
seen him ranked.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
As a low end RB one and rest of season
rankings across the industry. This week, I think he's a
mid range to possibly lower end RB two. The narrative
surrounding Travis Etn has been a lot stronger than his
actual usage in that backfield. Right now, he's sitting with
a rush air that's outside the top twenty at the position.
He's got a route share that's also outside the top twenty.
(17:05):
He's a target share that's well outside the top twenty.
His short down and distant snapshare according to Fantasy Life data,
also well outside the top twenty. And he's got a
rookie running back in Beashall Tutan who could easily steal
more work as the season goes on. Oh and by
the way, he scored last week, but the Texans literally
let him score at the end of that game to
get the ball back. So yes, etns is sell for me.
(17:28):
If you can get low end RB one or high
end RB two prices for him, I would do it.
The last question this week is from Kevin on Patreon
and says, with the by candidates you suggest on Tuesdays,
I'm always curious as to how aggressively we should be
going after them. Just to exemplify from this week, you
mentioned Josh Jacobs as a bye should be looking to
trade one of my current running backs, Cook Warren Genty
(17:50):
for him.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Thanks.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
So, I wanted to throw this question in this week's
mailbag because I've gotten a ton of questions this year
that's around how to sort of use my content. But
I also think this goes back to my general trade
philosophy that I need to repeat on the show. When
you hear me say to buy a running back like
this week Josh Jacobs, your mind shouldn't automatically go to
trading away one of your running backs for Josh Jacobs.
(18:13):
Straight up, I'm actually pretty against a one for one
trade like that, because trade should help both parties, and
a one for one deal where you're trading the same position,
there's going to be a loser. Get more creative with
your trade offers, find ways to help both teams. But
on the fifty Transaction show, I'm giving buy and sell
recommendations just based on the players who I think should
(18:34):
be able to perform better as the season goes on,
and I try to overlay that on top of general
market sentiment or how the market is feeling about those players.
And that's a very subjective thing to do, especially I'm
doing that show on Monday, so you guys can listen
to it on Tuesday, so I'm doing it early in
the week. But honestly, this is similar to my players
the target and avoid in the draft guide each year, like, yeah,
(18:56):
those are the players that I generally draft, but you
shouldn't be getting those players at all. My rankings and tiers.
They're there to give you an idea of how I
viewed one player versus another. I got so many emails
over the summer and people were asking if the players
the target list should override my rankings. No, of course not.
I'm just giving you guys, some context on players that
(19:17):
my rankings tend to like more or less than the market.
It doesn't mean I'm getting those players no matter what,
or I'm avoiding those players no matter what. In fact,
there are gonna be some players on my avoids list
who I probably didn't even have ranked that much differently
than your market than your draft, and if you followed
my rankings and tiers, you might have actually drafted them.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
That's happened to me plenty of times in the past.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Because there's no set market, there's no one thing that
is the market, at least that you can quantify. When
I say that I'm referencing the market, I'm just generalizing. Look, guys,
I'm merely here to give you recommendations, and I want
you to be able to valuate your team, evaluate where
you're at, and decide if you want to act on
(20:01):
that information or not.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's all this is.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I don't want to be a fantasy football analyst who
just says, here, here are the players I like. Have
at it with nothing more. What good does that do.
We're playing this game to have fun, to escape the
insanity of the real world, because it's a hobby that
we all enjoy. I want to show you, guys, how
I've won in the past and how I've been successful
in the past, and I don't want to do that
(20:26):
by just giving you my end results. I want to
show you the why that fifteen transaction show. It gives
you the recommendation, but then it explains the why. And look,
I want to help you be successful by recommending the
right transactions. Of course, nobody wants to be wrong, but
I also want you to truly understand the transaction so
(20:47):
you can apply the same logic to other moves in
your fantasy league.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
This is really just a long winded.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Way of me saying that you can and you should
take the recommendations, but make sure you listen to the context,
because I'll provide an explanation of the time a player
that we're looking at and what we're analyzing, at least
I try to, and from there you can make the
choice that's most logical for your fantasy teams. And look,
I can't answer the how aggressive question because everything in
(21:13):
fantasy football does come down to cost, and some managers
are gonna be really irrational, especially when it comes to trading.
I could say that Josh Jacobs is a bye and
that you should get them aggressively.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
But if the.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
Manager in your league only once James Cook and Molik neighbors,
then you shouldn't be buying Josh Jacobs. Throughout my time
as a fantasy analyst, I've had a lot of people
take something from the fifteen Transaction show and then hit
me up on social media with a screenshot of a
trade that just went down, and they're like, thanks to you,
I got this player that you called a bye and
(21:44):
then in that trade they basically lost the trade. It
was a bad trade for them to make. You can't
make those transactions no matter what. You still have to
apply your own logic for your own team. All I
can do when I'm speaking to an audience of people
is give you general guidance. From there, you have to
make what you think is the best decision based on
(22:06):
all the factors that I talk about on the show
each week. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to
all of you for listening. If you subscribed to the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a
betrotrating for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and don't for it to follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I got a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping later today.
I will also be live on the Late Round Fantasy
(22:29):
Football YouTube channel at one pm Eastern for the Late
Round Fantasy Football Show, but if you miss it, that'll
drop in the podcast feed tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Thanks for listening everyone. Greatly appreciate all of you. Have
a great weekend.
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