October 3, 2025 • 19 mins
Why did the fantasy football community whiff on the Chargers offense this year? Is Jordan Mason a sell candidate? What about Rome Odunze? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha.
J J Zacherifa. What's up everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in
this episode ten thirty of the Late Round Fantasy football
podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no
(00:25):
better way to get closer to the action than with
DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New
customers can play free for their share of millions in
prizes with their first deposit of five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter Gambler
(00:46):
in New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, NY,
and Connecticut called eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states. Eligibility restrictions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first question this week is from twitters
from at amg Underscore five. It says, where do you
(01:09):
think the biggest miscalculation was? When it comes to Lad
McConkie's draft ranking. It feels like this entire passing game
was wrong by ADP down to Herbert being an afterthought
in drafts and the assumption that Amari and Hampton wouldn't
earn enough targets to matter much. Now, as usual, I
can only speak about myself and what I was thinking
during draft time. But let's start with Ladd. First off,
(01:31):
I don't think Lad mcconkeye is all of a sudden
like a bad player. I think the circumstances around him changed,
and people weren't prepared for those circumstances to be as
different as they are. Mconki's not a traditional alpha wide
receiver who's likely going to see a twenty eight percent
target share every single year. We're not talking about Jamar Chase,
but he definitely can earn that kind of target share
(01:52):
when there's a lack of competition in his offense. He's
a good enough player to elevate and fill the gaps
in an offense when those gaps need fit. So let's
go through what we were all sort of thinking over
the offseason. Okay, the Chargers have Lad McConkey and they
go they hit the NFL draft and they take Trey Harris.
That's a player who a lot of people were into.
He's more of a traditional boundary receiver. We know that
(02:15):
rookie wideout's, especially one like Harris, who by no means
was a lock to be great. But we know that
rookie wide receivers like Harris won't command massive target chairs,
like if you look at the median outcome. So lad
was fine there. Then they signed Keenan Allen. I personally
thought that Allen was a good signing. I talked about
that on this show. I wrote him up as a
(02:37):
player to target in the draft guide. I was in
on Keenan Allen. And I think there's a little bit
more downside with mcconkeye because Allen's twenty twenty four wasn't
nearly as bad as people thought. No, I could go
on and on about that, I could get really into it,
but I talked about that at length during the summer.
Even still McConkie with a rookie wide receiver and with
(02:57):
Keenan Allen, he could still be a twenty target share
player realistically, just given how he performed in year one. Guys,
the X factor here is Quentin Johnston. The reason Lad
McConkie's not doing more in fantasy football right now is
because they have this legitimate threat who's emerged in Quentin Johnston.
My good friend Matt Harmon does wide receiver charting work
(03:19):
with Reception Perception. Everyone should check it out. It's great,
It's awesome. Matt's awesome Reception Perception dot Com. Matt did
some charting of QJ from his Week three game against
the Broncos, and not only did he just note that
he looked better, but he's also running routes that get
him going across the middle of the field more frequently.
The Chargers are finally allowing QJ to be more of
(03:41):
a yards after the catch player, which is really what
he was as a prospect. This emergence of Quentin Johnston
means he's a legitimate threat to steal targets in this
offense because if he's doing legit things, he's gonna have
a more legit target share. And Keenan Allen's good too,
so he's gonna have a legit target share. And you
(04:01):
can start to see how all of a sudden, Ladd
mconkey is stuck with this cap ceiling. He's had sub
twenty percent target chairs in each of his last three games.
Not to be clear, I don't think the discrepancy that
we're seeing right now in target chair among these three
wide receivers is the same discrepancy that we're gonna see
all year. I would imagine these three players meet more
(04:22):
in the middle. It's really hard for us to see
that sometimes, but when we look back on the season,
I wouldn't be surprised at all if from Week five onward,
maybe we see Ladd lead that team and target share.
I'm not saying that's a locke. I'm just saying I
wouldn't be surprised. But that, to me is why Lad
ended up being overdrafted. And I think we can confidently
(04:42):
say that Ladd was overdrafted at this point. The market
understandably didn't factor in this Quentin Johnston resurgence. I don't
even think the Chargers thought this would happen to this degree.
They spent a second round pick on Trey Harris. We
can recognize that this isn't really the norm. We don't
usually see this kind of jump from a year two
to year three player. But we should also just give
(05:04):
QJ props for just getting better it's a really great story. Now,
when you mentioned a mari And Hampton again, like Keenan Allen,
Hampton was a player to target my draft guide, despite
knowing Greg Roman's history and how he doesn't target running
backs in his offenses even when you adjust for personnel.
The reason I was okay with Hampton is because I
(05:24):
thought he would have an easy time capturing his backfield.
Little did I know he needed a Naji Harris season
ending injury for that to happen. Sometimes you have to
get a little lucky in fantasy football, though, who knows
what would have happened. But like the Chargers aren't targeting
their running backs at are really high rate. Right now,
through four weeks, they have a thirteen point eight percent
running back target share. The average across the league is
(05:48):
close to nineteen percent. They're bottom ten comfortably. It's just
that all of those looks are going to a Marion
Hampton because he's the sole lead back in that offense. Now,
I do think that target chair might rise though, because
of their offensive line issues, so we'll see. And then,
of course la is throwing the ball more than anyone expected.
(06:09):
I was pretty open minded to them throwing more because
of how they ran that offense during the second half
of last year. But I still thought they'd be a
pretty run heavy team. But guys, they ring first in
the NFL and pass right over expected. That's not something
that anyone projected. That to me, is the story of
this Chargers offense through the lens of fantasy football. Quentin
(06:32):
Johnson emerged, Lad McConkey was an elite rookie and is
a really great player, but not quite an alpha in
the traditional sense, so he's more reactive to movement in
this offense. And then Amari and Hampton just owns that
backfield now, so he should be fine in target share.
That was part of my thesis for him to begin with.
And then all the while the Chargers are throwing more.
(06:53):
Let's just hope this offensive line can hold up because
it's one of the few great offenses for fantasy football.
This ask question is from Patreon. It's from Paul. It says,
what's the biggest mistake fantasy managers make in the middle
of the season early weeks? People overreact to limited data,
but are there any pitfalls to avoid once we have
a bit more data? I think, aside from the obvious
(07:17):
not being active enough on the waiver wire when news
breaks and such like. Stuff like that. One thing I'd
call out would be making bad ad drops based on
just a marginal difference in projected points. Let me explain
what I mean by that. We're hitting bye weeks now,
and when we hit by weeks, our benches are all
of a sudden going to need to be part of
our starting lineups. But our benches are filled with guys
(07:38):
who maybe aren't fantastic starts. They maybe don't have the
best matchups in a given week, but we know that
they have good long term value. You might have this
urge to drop one of those stashes for a player
who can give you a couple more points in projection
in a given week. Like let's say you're running back
stash is projected to score six points this week, but
there's a wide receiver sitting on the waiver wire who
(08:00):
in that week is projected to get more work and
he's projected to score nine points. You're gonna feel tempted
to get rid of that bench stash, but you probably
don't want to do that if it's just for a
player that you're gonna start once and then send back
to the waiver wire, you probably don't want to do that.
You have to remember that these projections have tons and
(08:22):
tons of variants. Don't be overconfident in your ability to
predict the future in that one singular game when you're
letting that override how you feel about a player across
the entirety of the season, Like your bench stash could
just easily score more points than that wide receiver, and
there's more long term value with that bench stash too.
Managers fall into this trap of getting the cool new
(08:45):
player for that given week, which is fine if you
can afford to do it. Just don't lose sight of
the long term vision for your players and for your team.
This last question from Twitter is from at mike Underscore
and why why it says with Jordan Mason's first two starts,
can we attribute his sixty percent and sixty two percent
snap counts to wacky game script or does he have
(09:06):
just a built in role, good idea to sell high
So every week I do that data, I'm thread on
Twitter and on Blue Sky, and I set it out
in the Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter, and the data
nuggets that I post end up getting some interaction, whether
on Twitter, or on Reddit or via some random article,
people are commenting on the data nuggets. And something I've
(09:28):
heard very consistently this year is when there's a change
in running back usage, people always make note and they say, yeah, well,
look at the game script with that game. Clearly that's
why the usage look different. Yeah. Man, that's the point.
That's why I'm pointing it out. Like, look at Derrick Henry.
Last week, Henry was at a forty percent snapshare. Justice
(09:49):
Hill played more snaps than Derrick Henry. Of course, that
had to do with gamescript. We've seen the Ravens do
this since they got Derrick Henry. We know that when
they're trailing in game and when they're trailing big, just
as Hill is their guy. But from a fantasy football perspective,
does that not make Derreck Henry a little bit more votal?
(10:09):
If a running back leaves the game because that game
goes a certain way, then that running back isn't scoring
fantasy points for your team. It's not like we can
guarantee a certain game script every single week. So that
leads me to this question with Jordan Mason, was it
gamescript as to why he didn't have higher snap shares?
I mean yes and no. Yes from the standpoint that
(10:30):
game script could have maybe put him on the field
slightly more, but no, from the standpoint of him being
a belcow back. I've talked about this so many times
on the show at this point, but Jordan Mason, I
think he's a capable enough pass catcher, Like he's not
Gus Edwards back there, but he literally has never had
a robust receiving profile dating back to college. Now, he
(10:51):
played with some good players, I get all that, but
he himself has never put together some crazy receiving season
before and he hasn't even been efficient per route run.
And Minnesota has the perfect compliment for that in Aaron Jones,
who's one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL.
But they've been using Xavier Scott in that pass catching role,
(11:13):
not totally, but at least at times. Mason's played fewer
than half of their long down and distance snaps since
Aaron Jones's injury, and he's been in a fifty percent
and thirty eight percent rate of two minute snaps. That's
according to Fantasy Life data. Xavier Scott is playing the rest.
So when Jordan Mason's not on the field for those
(11:33):
two minute snaps. Xavier Scott is and Scott has a
background as a pass catcher. He played both running back
and wide receiver in college. Now, maybe we see more
of a bellcow role for Mason in a super tight game.
Maybe that happens this weekend, But at this point, we're
seeing the coaching staff with Xavier Scott as his main competition,
(11:54):
We're seeing the coaching staff not use Jordan Mason on
all downs. So, yes, part of it is game script,
I'm sure, but that game script could always be there.
That's not just gonna disappear. And then at the same time,
I think this is just who Jordan Mason is. A
couple of weeks ago, there was upside that he could
just play every single snap, that he could have like
(12:15):
a twenty twenty four Chase Brown role in that offense.
But I think clearly that's not happening. And look, Mason's
been great on the ground and he can catch some
dump offs. Like I said, he's not Gus Edwards back there,
but I'd expect Aaron Jones when he's back, to play
more of a receiving role. That's what I thought entering
the season too, And that's what we started to see.
(12:36):
I just don't know if you can really sell high
because Mason's not exactly a household name and people know
that Aaron Jones is gonna be back, and Mason's still
giving you usable production and usable usage. I mean, he
saw eighty nine percent of Minnesota's running back rushes in
week four. I'm just talking about like that top ten
ceiling consistently, not in just really good game scripts like
(12:59):
you saw against Ince. The receiving work just has to
be there more, and I don't think that's only due
to gamescript. The nice questions, also from Twitter, is from
at just drew it. It says, is Roma Dunza a
possible cell high loving his early season production, but he's
running hot on touchdowns, take those away? In his last
(13:20):
two games are three to four receptions and under seventy yards.
I can't believe I'm answering a Roma Dunze question and
I'm bringing up this name, but I actually feel like
the touchdown argument works better for a Mecha Buca right
now than it does Romadunza. If you know, you know
a Dunes has been scoring touchdown sure, and it's saving
his day and he's playing above expectation accord to PFF's
(13:43):
expected Fantasy points model, A Dunsay's two point eight points
above expected right now per game, but his expectation is
still top five in the league based on where he's
seeing targets. We have to always remember that regression doesn't
mean going too hard in the opposite direction. He's still
comfortably in the top ten in end zone targets. He's
(14:03):
seeing a twenty seven percent target here in the Bears offense.
He scored five times. That's a lot, but his expected
touchdowns it's still three point six based on his usage.
And I'm not sure this really dramatically changes with how
poorly that Bears defense is probably gonna play this year
and how that offense is going to have to keep
their foot on the gas. A Dunsay's legit. I wrote
(14:26):
in the Prospect Guide how one of his outcomes could
have really been DeAndre Hopkins, because his year two profile
looks so much like Hopkins, and I think we're starting
to see that come to fruition. I've got him in
a lot of spots and I'm not selling. I mean,
I did sell him in that one dynasty league this offseason,
but we all know that turned out okay, still okay,
(14:46):
I promise I'm done with those references. I just think
it's so funny that both like Buca and Adunza ended
up being awesome. It's legit the best outcome from all
of that episode nine ninety if you have no idea
what I'm talking about right now. The last question this
week is from at Backup QBFFB. It says, at what
point do you accept that a player's lack of production
(15:09):
is no longer a by low window and is a
stay away. For example, Lad McConkie, I get questions all
the time that are framed this exact way where it's like,
when do you do X? When why is happening? Give
me a timeframe for when I can kind of switch things?
And the answer is that every player is unique. There's
(15:31):
not some specific timeframe where you start to take some
action after that time is up. Every player is going
to be individualized. But when a player isn't performing well
and you're wondering if it's time to sell or not,
you've got to look beyond the production. First and foremost
are the peripherals. There is he still seeing good target shairs,
good route rates, all the stuff I talk about on
(15:52):
this show all week long. Has he just been unlucky
with touchdowns? You've got to look into that stuff first
and foremost, But then you also have to look into
who he is as a player, the backbone of the guy.
A huge reason it would be silly to give up
on Brian Thomas right now is because he's coming off
one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons that we've
(16:12):
seen since twenty eleven, and we be letting four games
dictate things way too much when we know players like
Thomas have historically done so well. You don't have to
buy into Thomas at his draft day cost. That would
be ridiculous, But I'll generally lean more by than sell
for a talented player who's still seeing usage now. On
(16:34):
the flip side, look at Calvin Ridley. He's a good
wide receiver, but definitely not an elite wide receiver. His circumstances,
his situation terrible. He's playing in arguably the worst offense
in football, and he's going to be thirty one years
old in December. It's very possible that this is just
it for him. That's in the range of outcomes here. Meanwhile,
(16:57):
you can see other players stepping in and perform just
as well as Ridley, if not better, in the exact
same offense. When those players elick I amnor they're not experienced,
we don't have this large sample of them being super
elite players. Like with Lad McConkie. We have the same
thing going with him as we do Brian Thomas. They're
(17:18):
coming off these awesome rookie seasons and McConkie's in a
really great environment and at the very least there's some
contingent upside there. Right If Quentin Johnson or Keenan Allen
get hurt, Lad McConkie all of a sudden's a much
more attractive fantasy option with Ridley. Though, where is this
really heading? Truly? I mean, I liked Ridley entering the season,
(17:41):
and I gotta say it's one of the two player
takes where I look back and I'm so mad about
my process because it went against my process. I usually
warn people against pass catchers with rookie quarterbacks, and for
the record, the other player is Javonte Williams. But I'll
talk about all of this at the end of the season.
I don't like to do this in season. I was
just talking about Calvin Ridley, so I figured i'd bring
(18:02):
it up, But like you just have to ask those questions.
Is there a talent back bonus? He and up and
coming talent? Are players around him doing well and he's
just not Every player is gonna be unique. But hopefully
that puts some thoughts in your head to know when
to lean into a player or just stay far far away.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
(18:23):
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bushreting for
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't
forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. As usual,
later today one pm Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy
Football YouTube channel, myself and David Kitchen, we'll be recording
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. If you miss it, though,
(18:45):
it will find its way to this podcast feed tomorrow morning.
And then also later today you got another episode of
Late Round Perspectives. Appreciate all of you. Have a great weekend.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha.
J J Zacherifa. What's up everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in
this episode ten thirty of the Late Round Fantasy football
podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no
(00:25):
better way to get closer to the action than with
DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New
customers can play free for their share of millions in
prizes with their first deposit of five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter Gambler
(00:46):
in New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, NY,
and Connecticut called eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states. Eligibility restrictions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first question this week is from twitters
from at amg Underscore five. It says, where do you
(01:09):
think the biggest miscalculation was? When it comes to Lad
McConkie's draft ranking. It feels like this entire passing game
was wrong by ADP down to Herbert being an afterthought
in drafts and the assumption that Amari and Hampton wouldn't
earn enough targets to matter much. Now, as usual, I
can only speak about myself and what I was thinking
during draft time. But let's start with Ladd. First off,
(01:31):
I don't think Lad mcconkeye is all of a sudden
like a bad player. I think the circumstances around him changed,
and people weren't prepared for those circumstances to be as
different as they are. Mconki's not a traditional alpha wide
receiver who's likely going to see a twenty eight percent
target share every single year. We're not talking about Jamar Chase,
but he definitely can earn that kind of target share
(01:52):
when there's a lack of competition in his offense. He's
a good enough player to elevate and fill the gaps
in an offense when those gaps need fit. So let's
go through what we were all sort of thinking over
the offseason. Okay, the Chargers have Lad McConkey and they
go they hit the NFL draft and they take Trey Harris.
That's a player who a lot of people were into.
He's more of a traditional boundary receiver. We know that
(02:15):
rookie wideout's, especially one like Harris, who by no means
was a lock to be great. But we know that
rookie wide receivers like Harris won't command massive target chairs,
like if you look at the median outcome. So lad
was fine there. Then they signed Keenan Allen. I personally
thought that Allen was a good signing. I talked about
that on this show. I wrote him up as a
(02:37):
player to target in the draft guide. I was in
on Keenan Allen. And I think there's a little bit
more downside with mcconkeye because Allen's twenty twenty four wasn't
nearly as bad as people thought. No, I could go
on and on about that, I could get really into it,
but I talked about that at length during the summer.
Even still McConkie with a rookie wide receiver and with
(02:57):
Keenan Allen, he could still be a twenty target share
player realistically, just given how he performed in year one. Guys,
the X factor here is Quentin Johnston. The reason Lad
McConkie's not doing more in fantasy football right now is
because they have this legitimate threat who's emerged in Quentin Johnston.
My good friend Matt Harmon does wide receiver charting work
(03:19):
with Reception Perception. Everyone should check it out. It's great,
It's awesome. Matt's awesome Reception Perception dot Com. Matt did
some charting of QJ from his Week three game against
the Broncos, and not only did he just note that
he looked better, but he's also running routes that get
him going across the middle of the field more frequently.
The Chargers are finally allowing QJ to be more of
(03:41):
a yards after the catch player, which is really what
he was as a prospect. This emergence of Quentin Johnston
means he's a legitimate threat to steal targets in this
offense because if he's doing legit things, he's gonna have
a more legit target share. And Keenan Allen's good too,
so he's gonna have a legit target share. And you
(04:01):
can start to see how all of a sudden, Ladd
mconkey is stuck with this cap ceiling. He's had sub
twenty percent target chairs in each of his last three games.
Not to be clear, I don't think the discrepancy that
we're seeing right now in target chair among these three
wide receivers is the same discrepancy that we're gonna see
all year. I would imagine these three players meet more
(04:22):
in the middle. It's really hard for us to see
that sometimes, but when we look back on the season,
I wouldn't be surprised at all if from Week five onward,
maybe we see Ladd lead that team and target share.
I'm not saying that's a locke. I'm just saying I
wouldn't be surprised. But that, to me is why Lad
ended up being overdrafted. And I think we can confidently
(04:42):
say that Ladd was overdrafted at this point. The market
understandably didn't factor in this Quentin Johnston resurgence. I don't
even think the Chargers thought this would happen to this degree.
They spent a second round pick on Trey Harris. We
can recognize that this isn't really the norm. We don't
usually see this kind of jump from a year two
to year three player. But we should also just give
(05:04):
QJ props for just getting better it's a really great story. Now,
when you mentioned a mari And Hampton again, like Keenan Allen,
Hampton was a player to target my draft guide, despite
knowing Greg Roman's history and how he doesn't target running
backs in his offenses even when you adjust for personnel.
The reason I was okay with Hampton is because I
(05:24):
thought he would have an easy time capturing his backfield.
Little did I know he needed a Naji Harris season
ending injury for that to happen. Sometimes you have to
get a little lucky in fantasy football, though, who knows
what would have happened. But like the Chargers aren't targeting
their running backs at are really high rate. Right now,
through four weeks, they have a thirteen point eight percent
running back target share. The average across the league is
(05:48):
close to nineteen percent. They're bottom ten comfortably. It's just
that all of those looks are going to a Marion
Hampton because he's the sole lead back in that offense. Now,
I do think that target chair might rise though, because
of their offensive line issues, so we'll see. And then,
of course la is throwing the ball more than anyone expected.
(06:09):
I was pretty open minded to them throwing more because
of how they ran that offense during the second half
of last year. But I still thought they'd be a
pretty run heavy team. But guys, they ring first in
the NFL and pass right over expected. That's not something
that anyone projected. That to me, is the story of
this Chargers offense through the lens of fantasy football. Quentin
(06:32):
Johnson emerged, Lad McConkey was an elite rookie and is
a really great player, but not quite an alpha in
the traditional sense, so he's more reactive to movement in
this offense. And then Amari and Hampton just owns that
backfield now, so he should be fine in target share.
That was part of my thesis for him to begin with.
And then all the while the Chargers are throwing more.
(06:53):
Let's just hope this offensive line can hold up because
it's one of the few great offenses for fantasy football.
This ask question is from Patreon. It's from Paul. It says,
what's the biggest mistake fantasy managers make in the middle
of the season early weeks? People overreact to limited data,
but are there any pitfalls to avoid once we have
a bit more data? I think, aside from the obvious
(07:17):
not being active enough on the waiver wire when news
breaks and such like. Stuff like that. One thing I'd
call out would be making bad ad drops based on
just a marginal difference in projected points. Let me explain
what I mean by that. We're hitting bye weeks now,
and when we hit by weeks, our benches are all
of a sudden going to need to be part of
our starting lineups. But our benches are filled with guys
(07:38):
who maybe aren't fantastic starts. They maybe don't have the
best matchups in a given week, but we know that
they have good long term value. You might have this
urge to drop one of those stashes for a player
who can give you a couple more points in projection
in a given week. Like let's say you're running back
stash is projected to score six points this week, but
there's a wide receiver sitting on the waiver wire who
(08:00):
in that week is projected to get more work and
he's projected to score nine points. You're gonna feel tempted
to get rid of that bench stash, but you probably
don't want to do that if it's just for a
player that you're gonna start once and then send back
to the waiver wire, you probably don't want to do that.
You have to remember that these projections have tons and
(08:22):
tons of variants. Don't be overconfident in your ability to
predict the future in that one singular game when you're
letting that override how you feel about a player across
the entirety of the season, Like your bench stash could
just easily score more points than that wide receiver, and
there's more long term value with that bench stash too.
Managers fall into this trap of getting the cool new
(08:45):
player for that given week, which is fine if you
can afford to do it. Just don't lose sight of
the long term vision for your players and for your team.
This last question from Twitter is from at mike Underscore
and why why it says with Jordan Mason's first two starts,
can we attribute his sixty percent and sixty two percent
snap counts to wacky game script or does he have
(09:06):
just a built in role, good idea to sell high
So every week I do that data, I'm thread on
Twitter and on Blue Sky, and I set it out
in the Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter, and the data
nuggets that I post end up getting some interaction, whether
on Twitter, or on Reddit or via some random article,
people are commenting on the data nuggets. And something I've
(09:28):
heard very consistently this year is when there's a change
in running back usage, people always make note and they say, yeah, well,
look at the game script with that game. Clearly that's
why the usage look different. Yeah. Man, that's the point.
That's why I'm pointing it out. Like, look at Derrick Henry.
Last week, Henry was at a forty percent snapshare. Justice
(09:49):
Hill played more snaps than Derrick Henry. Of course, that
had to do with gamescript. We've seen the Ravens do
this since they got Derrick Henry. We know that when
they're trailing in game and when they're trailing big, just
as Hill is their guy. But from a fantasy football perspective,
does that not make Derreck Henry a little bit more votal?
(10:09):
If a running back leaves the game because that game
goes a certain way, then that running back isn't scoring
fantasy points for your team. It's not like we can
guarantee a certain game script every single week. So that
leads me to this question with Jordan Mason, was it
gamescript as to why he didn't have higher snap shares?
I mean yes and no. Yes from the standpoint that
(10:30):
game script could have maybe put him on the field
slightly more, but no, from the standpoint of him being
a belcow back. I've talked about this so many times
on the show at this point, but Jordan Mason, I
think he's a capable enough pass catcher, Like he's not
Gus Edwards back there, but he literally has never had
a robust receiving profile dating back to college. Now, he
(10:51):
played with some good players, I get all that, but
he himself has never put together some crazy receiving season
before and he hasn't even been efficient per route run.
And Minnesota has the perfect compliment for that in Aaron Jones,
who's one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL.
But they've been using Xavier Scott in that pass catching role,
(11:13):
not totally, but at least at times. Mason's played fewer
than half of their long down and distance snaps since
Aaron Jones's injury, and he's been in a fifty percent
and thirty eight percent rate of two minute snaps. That's
according to Fantasy Life data. Xavier Scott is playing the rest.
So when Jordan Mason's not on the field for those
(11:33):
two minute snaps. Xavier Scott is and Scott has a
background as a pass catcher. He played both running back
and wide receiver in college. Now, maybe we see more
of a bellcow role for Mason in a super tight game.
Maybe that happens this weekend, But at this point, we're
seeing the coaching staff with Xavier Scott as his main competition,
(11:54):
We're seeing the coaching staff not use Jordan Mason on
all downs. So, yes, part of it is game script,
I'm sure, but that game script could always be there.
That's not just gonna disappear. And then at the same time,
I think this is just who Jordan Mason is. A
couple of weeks ago, there was upside that he could
just play every single snap, that he could have like
(12:15):
a twenty twenty four Chase Brown role in that offense.
But I think clearly that's not happening. And look, Mason's
been great on the ground and he can catch some
dump offs. Like I said, he's not Gus Edwards back there,
but I'd expect Aaron Jones when he's back, to play
more of a receiving role. That's what I thought entering
the season too, And that's what we started to see.
(12:36):
I just don't know if you can really sell high
because Mason's not exactly a household name and people know
that Aaron Jones is gonna be back, and Mason's still
giving you usable production and usable usage. I mean, he
saw eighty nine percent of Minnesota's running back rushes in
week four. I'm just talking about like that top ten
ceiling consistently, not in just really good game scripts like
(12:59):
you saw against Ince. The receiving work just has to
be there more, and I don't think that's only due
to gamescript. The nice questions, also from Twitter, is from
at just drew it. It says, is Roma Dunza a
possible cell high loving his early season production, but he's
running hot on touchdowns, take those away? In his last
(13:20):
two games are three to four receptions and under seventy yards.
I can't believe I'm answering a Roma Dunze question and
I'm bringing up this name, but I actually feel like
the touchdown argument works better for a Mecha Buca right
now than it does Romadunza. If you know, you know
a Dunes has been scoring touchdown sure, and it's saving
his day and he's playing above expectation accord to PFF's
(13:43):
expected Fantasy points model, A Dunsay's two point eight points
above expected right now per game, but his expectation is
still top five in the league based on where he's
seeing targets. We have to always remember that regression doesn't
mean going too hard in the opposite direction. He's still
comfortably in the top ten in end zone targets. He's
(14:03):
seeing a twenty seven percent target here in the Bears offense.
He scored five times. That's a lot, but his expected
touchdowns it's still three point six based on his usage.
And I'm not sure this really dramatically changes with how
poorly that Bears defense is probably gonna play this year
and how that offense is going to have to keep
their foot on the gas. A Dunsay's legit. I wrote
(14:26):
in the Prospect Guide how one of his outcomes could
have really been DeAndre Hopkins, because his year two profile
looks so much like Hopkins, and I think we're starting
to see that come to fruition. I've got him in
a lot of spots and I'm not selling. I mean,
I did sell him in that one dynasty league this offseason,
but we all know that turned out okay, still okay,
(14:46):
I promise I'm done with those references. I just think
it's so funny that both like Buca and Adunza ended
up being awesome. It's legit the best outcome from all
of that episode nine ninety if you have no idea
what I'm talking about right now. The last question this
week is from at Backup QBFFB. It says, at what
point do you accept that a player's lack of production
(15:09):
is no longer a by low window and is a
stay away. For example, Lad McConkie, I get questions all
the time that are framed this exact way where it's like,
when do you do X? When why is happening? Give
me a timeframe for when I can kind of switch things?
And the answer is that every player is unique. There's
(15:31):
not some specific timeframe where you start to take some
action after that time is up. Every player is going
to be individualized. But when a player isn't performing well
and you're wondering if it's time to sell or not,
you've got to look beyond the production. First and foremost
are the peripherals. There is he still seeing good target shairs,
good route rates, all the stuff I talk about on
(15:52):
this show all week long. Has he just been unlucky
with touchdowns? You've got to look into that stuff first
and foremost, But then you also have to look into
who he is as a player, the backbone of the guy.
A huge reason it would be silly to give up
on Brian Thomas right now is because he's coming off
one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons that we've
(16:12):
seen since twenty eleven, and we be letting four games
dictate things way too much when we know players like
Thomas have historically done so well. You don't have to
buy into Thomas at his draft day cost. That would
be ridiculous, But I'll generally lean more by than sell
for a talented player who's still seeing usage now. On
(16:34):
the flip side, look at Calvin Ridley. He's a good
wide receiver, but definitely not an elite wide receiver. His circumstances,
his situation terrible. He's playing in arguably the worst offense
in football, and he's going to be thirty one years
old in December. It's very possible that this is just
it for him. That's in the range of outcomes here. Meanwhile,
(16:57):
you can see other players stepping in and perform just
as well as Ridley, if not better, in the exact
same offense. When those players elick I amnor they're not experienced,
we don't have this large sample of them being super
elite players. Like with Lad McConkie. We have the same
thing going with him as we do Brian Thomas. They're
(17:18):
coming off these awesome rookie seasons and McConkie's in a
really great environment and at the very least there's some
contingent upside there. Right If Quentin Johnson or Keenan Allen
get hurt, Lad McConkie all of a sudden's a much
more attractive fantasy option with Ridley. Though, where is this
really heading? Truly? I mean, I liked Ridley entering the season,
(17:41):
and I gotta say it's one of the two player
takes where I look back and I'm so mad about
my process because it went against my process. I usually
warn people against pass catchers with rookie quarterbacks, and for
the record, the other player is Javonte Williams. But I'll
talk about all of this at the end of the season.
I don't like to do this in season. I was
just talking about Calvin Ridley, so I figured i'd bring
(18:02):
it up, But like you just have to ask those questions.
Is there a talent back bonus? He and up and
coming talent? Are players around him doing well and he's
just not Every player is gonna be unique. But hopefully
that puts some thoughts in your head to know when
to lean into a player or just stay far far away.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
(18:23):
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bushreting for
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't
forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. As usual,
later today one pm Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy
Football YouTube channel, myself and David Kitchen, we'll be recording
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. If you miss it, though,
(18:45):
it will find its way to this podcast feed tomorrow morning.
And then also later today you got another episode of
Late Round Perspectives. Appreciate all of you. Have a great weekend.
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