October 7, 2025 • 20 mins
JJ talks about Michael Carter, a couple of 49ers wide receivers, Ja'Marr Chase, and more on this week's 15 Transactions episode.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zappertha
j J zacher.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Reefon what's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty one of
the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks
for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer
to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate
destination for football fans. New customers can play free for
their share of millions and prizes with their first a
positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy
(00:34):
app and enter promo code Late Round to play free
for your share of millions.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York call
eight seven to seven and eight hope n Why in
Connecticut called eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seven
seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibility supply ends December
thirty first Sea terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions.
Let's get to these fifteen transactions, add Michael Carter. So
(01:00):
when I did this fifteen transaction show last week, we
had no idea that Trey Benson was about to go
on IR. We barely knew that he was hurt. We
just knew he was a little.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Bit banged up now.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Fortunately, on the Sleepers episode last week, I talked about
the Cardinals backfield. I talked about liking Michael Carter more
than a Mari de Marcado, and I discussed it with
late round fantasy football patrons as well. So hopefully anyone
consuming my content already has Michael Carter, but regardless if
you don't, he's probably the number one priority this week
off the waiver wire. Now, I'll be honest that Arizona
(01:32):
backfield split, it could have gotten in a different direction.
In situations like that, we don't know exactly what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I'm not on the Arizona Cardinals coaching staff.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
I'm just using context clues to try to get us
the best answer, and that answer in Week five was
Michael Carter. He played twenty more snaps than a Mari
de Marcado, and despite de Marcado being that third down back,
Carter still ran eight more routes. Michael Carter ended that
game with a seventy two percent running back rush share
in a seventeen percent target share. Those are kind of
(02:04):
awesome numbers. And then, as we know, Amaro de Marcado
had that costly.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Fumble in the game.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
That only makes me feel more bullish about Michael Carter's
workload moving forward. Trey Benson's injury it's supposed to sideline
him for four to six weeks, we realistically could get
another month of solid Michael Carter production by Trey McBride.
So let's stick with the Cardinals here and let's shift
our focus to Trey McBride. He's basically doing what he
(02:33):
did last year, except just a little bit worse. And
twenty twenty four is target share per game rate twenty
nine point nine percent. This year it's closer to twenty
seven percent. Last year, he averaged fifteen point nine expected
Fantasy points per game. That's in PPR formats, and that's
according to PFF's model. This year he's at thirteen point nine.
(02:54):
But this season, McBride's playing further below expectation. He's averaging
twelve and a half peep Zer points per game despite
getting eight point four targets per contest. And as I
just said, he has twelve and a half PPR points
per game. He should be closer to fourteen just based
on where he's seeing his targets. There might be a
frustrated trademcbride.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Manager out there.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
I know that some people in the late round Fantasy
Football discord they've been kind of frustrated with them, and
maybe this is just what he is this season. He's
just a high floor, low ceiling tight end. But I
do think he's more by than sell. The Cardinals have
a favorable rest of seasons schedule for tight ends. He's
playing below expectation, like I said, and over the last
(03:36):
few weeks, only Jake Ferguson is averaging more expected Fantasy
points per game than Trey McBride is. That's at the
tight end position. And it doesn't hurt that Marvin Harrison
Junior has not taken that next step this season. He's
a twenty percent target chair. This is admittedly a transaction
that I wouldn't go nuts over, Like, definitely don't pay
draft day costs to get Trey McBride. But if you
(03:59):
want to little bit more stability at the tight end position,
and you know the manager in your league is a
little bit frustrated with his production.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Then why not send an offer.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
And Kendre Miller so I talked about Kendre Miller a
couple times on last week's show, and in week five
we saw his snapshare get even better. His snapshare was
thirty nine percent. It was thirty two percent in week four,
and that resulted in him hitting a season high fifty
five point six percent running back rush share. Now, the
issue with Kendra Miller, and I talked about this last week,
(04:32):
is going to be his pass catching. Alvin Kamara is
still in that backfield. We've yet to see Miller get
to a five percent target share in a game this year,
and his rot participation rates have all been below thirty percent.
And then the other obvious thing here is that Kendre
Miller is going to work better in positive game scripts.
In New Orleans, They're not going to see many positive
(04:54):
game scripts, and that offense is not very good. They
were fine against the Giants this past weekend. Fine, but
any poor game script is going to lead to more
Alvin Kamara, not Kendre Miller. According to Fantasy Life data,
Kamara has played about eighty percent of the team's long
down in distant snaps this year. So it's fine to
have Kendre Miller rostered. It's a really weak waiver wire week.
(05:15):
If he's still out there, go ahead and Adam workloads
can shift, injuries can happen, trades can happen, But at
this moment, he's more like a random bye week fill
in than a true top thirty running back.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Sell Jamar Chase.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
So the Bengals offense was able to move the ball
a little bit better against the Lions this past weekend.
I talked about that with James Coe on last week's
Late Round Perspectives episode. It was good to see that
come to fruition. But guys, this Cincinnati offense is still
not very good. That Detroit defense is pretty banged up,
and it still took garbage time for the Bengals to
compile fantasy production. Jamar Chase is the one who benefited most.
(05:57):
He scored twenty nine PPR points. He had a twenty
five five percent target share, And trust me, guys, this
transaction has nothing to do with Jamar Chase the player.
He's obviously a fantastic player, one of the best in
the league, if not the best. I'm just not convinced
he's back from a fantasy perspective entering the week. I
talked about this on last week's ten Trends episode. Entering
(06:20):
the week, Chase had played eight games with Jake Browning
under center. He averaged eleven point two PPR points per
game in those contests. Outside of those games, since the
start of twenty twenty three, Chase was at twenty two
PPR points per game. He was a totally different wide
receiver in Fantasy football with and without Jake Browning, which
is not that surprising, but those splits are pretty glaring.
(06:43):
Now that twenty nine point outing is gonna help that average,
but we're still looking at a player, an unbelievably talented
player who's likely going to see some valleys with his
peaks this year. And honestly, the only reason why I'm
calling out Jamar Chase is because of rest of season rankings.
Entering Week five, Fantasy Pros rankers, they were still listing
(07:04):
Chase as a top ten player in Fantasy football, ahead
of players like James Cook, ahead of C. D. Lamb,
ahead of Devon A. Chan I was well below the market,
even knowing that he could have a great Week five performance.
And he had that great Week five performance, So what's
gonna happen to his rest of season ranking? It's more
than likely gonna rise, but I'm still concerned the Bengals
(07:28):
in that spot. Against the Lions, they still finished outside
the top twenty in total yards and EPA per play.
They were bottom half in the league and rushing success rate.
They allowed a top five pressure rate. This offense is
probably not gonna be very good as long as Jake
Browning is under center.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Like I could sit on this podcast and.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Easily call out T Higgins, but no one's buying t
Higgins right now given the rankings that I'm seeing, though,
people might be buying Jamar Chase still, and if you
can get them for a price of a top ten player,
I would do that. At Darnell Mooney, It's been a
pretty weird season for Darnell Mooney. He was banged up
(08:11):
throughout training camp and in the preseason, and then he
wasn't able to find the field until Week two against
the Vikings. But if you remember that game, the Falcons
had a pretty run heavy script because they were leading,
so we only had four targets, but he had a
nineteen percent target.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Share in that game.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
And then in Week three the Falcons couldn't do anything
offensively against the Panthers, Mooney still saw eleven targets in
a twenty seven percent target share, and then in Week four,
the last time we saw Atlanta, Mooney got hurt again.
But the team seems optimistic that he's gonna be able
to play this weekend. And given what I just said,
(08:49):
if we're just being totally objective here, we haven't really
seen a normal situation for Darnell Mooney this year, and
yet his fantasy managers have been dropping him. He's only
rostered in thirty three percent of Yahoo leagues right now.
Last season, he was one of the best deep ball
players in the NFL. He only trailed George Pickens, DK
Metcalf and Justin Jefferson in twenty plus air yard catches.
(09:12):
He had a twenty one percent target chair in that
Falcons offense. There's really no reason that he should be
sitting on the waiver wire in twelve team leagues. Atlanta
has a top ten rest of season schedule for wide
receivers according to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers two.
So you should be adding Darnell Mooney if he's out there.
(09:33):
Ad Kendrick Bourne, I have no idea at the time
of this recording how healthy Ricky Pierson and Juwan Jennings are.
But what I do know is that Kendrick Bourne had
a great Week five. He tied for the team lead
and target chair against the Rams. He ended up catching
ten of eleven targets for one hundred and forty two yards.
I think if one of Jennings or pearsall don't go
(09:55):
this weekend, Kendrick Bourne is probably going to operate as
a number two receiver. He's gonna be rewarded for how
he performed on Thursday night. You would think it seems
like that connection with Mac Jones was very, very real,
But I will say he technically did run fewer routes
than DeMarcus Robinson. But I'm still adding Kendrick Bourne given
(10:15):
that performance. Add Jake Toanjis now, since we're talking about
the forty nine ers, we might as well get this
out of the way too. Jake Toanjas is a reasonable
streamer for Week six. Kyle Shanahan said it was a
long shot for George Kittle to have his practice window
opened before Week six, so it's likely going to be
Toanjis as the primary pass catching tight end for the
(10:37):
forty nine ers. He finished Week five with a good
twenty two point nine percent target share. He's found the
end zone in back to back games, and in those
two games he scored fourteen point eight and seventeen point
one PPR points. The forty nine Ers to the Buccaneers
this weekend too. Tampa Bay ranks as a top five
opponent for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed so
far this year, so Toanjas is a very reason nile streamer. Now,
(11:01):
for the record, I wouldn't be adding him over Mason
Taylor or Theo Johnson. I just talked about Taylor and
Johnson last week. They have more season long upside, but
for this week you could add Tanjas by Juwan Jennings.
This fifteen transaction show is sponsored by the San Francisco
(11:21):
forty nine Ers. Now, in all seriousness, I wrote this
in the newsletter, but I said in fantasy football, sometimes
absence doesn't make the heart grow fonder. Sometimes absence makes
the heart forget the person even exists. And that's what
I feel like with Jawan Jennings right now. He was
a pretty high draft selection earlier in the summer, before
this holdout happened, and before that calf injury happened. Whether
(11:44):
that was an injury or not. Then it was a
shoulder injury, and now it's his ankle and ribs.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Now.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
I know Jennings plays a very physical style of ball,
but even by his standards, he's been beat up this year.
This transaction, it's kind like the Darnell Mooney transaction. We
really haven't seen much normalcy from Jennings in twenty twenty five,
but we've seen these glimpses of him being a very
usable fantasy asset. Back in Week two, the only game
(12:12):
where he was moderately healthy, and he ran a round
on at least eighty percent of San Francisco's dropbacks. He
finished the game with nineteen point nine PPR points in
a twenty six percent target share. There's obviously nothing wrong
with that at all, And right now you could probably
take someone on your bench and trade them for Juwan Jennings,
and over their next two games, San Francisco gets the
(12:34):
Buccaneers and the Falcons. Those are two strong matchups and
they have a strong rest of season schedule for wide
receivers according to justin Fantasy points allowed numbers, So why
not take a chance on Juwan Jennings and just cross
your fingers that he plays this weekend, and if he
doesn't play this weekend, he could still have decent value
rest of season. It feels like Juwan Jennings, which just
(12:54):
one decent game could totally flip perception, could totally flip
this script because there hasn't really been a normal game
for him this season. Actually, the only normal game that
he's played in he was great ad Isaac Teslaw. So
Khalif Raymond suffered a neck injury in the first quarter
of Detroit's game against Cincinnati in Week five, and that
(13:16):
opened the door for Isaac Teslaw to get some run
in that line's offense. According to PFF eighta, Tesla had
a fifty four percent route chare, which was the highest
of his season. Now, he only saw one target, but
of course, in typical Isaac Teslaw fashion, he scored on it.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Raymond could miss Week six, that would make.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Tesla a deeper sleeper and if he shows out, he
can maybe carve out a larger role in this offense.
It's one of the best offenses in football, and let's
be honest, he's one injury away from having an even
bigger role than that. So I don't think he's a
bad ad this week because the waiver wire is pretty weak.
(13:54):
Sell Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard had his best Fantasy total
of the season on Sunday, fourteen point eight PPR points.
He's now scored thirteen point nine, ten point six and
fourteen point eight PPR points over his last three games.
During his first two, he didn't hit double digits. We
know this Titans offense, though, isn't very good. It's likely
(14:15):
gonna cap pollard ceiling, but Tajy Spears being back, he's
gonna cap his ceiling two now. Spears only played twenty
six percent of Tennessee snaps on Sunday, but there's a
chance that they're just easing him back in. After all, last season,
when him and Pollard were both healthy, Tajay Spears' snapshare
hovered around the forty percent range, and Spears's presence has
(14:38):
already impacted Pollard, even though the bottom line didn't show that.
Pollard played a season low seventy two percent snapshare against
the Cardinals this past weekend. So thanks to that usable performance,
you might have an opportunity right now to sell Tony Pollard,
and I would do that if I could add Ryan Flanoy.
(15:00):
So I spent about twenty minutes on YouTube trying to
figure out how to pronounce this dude's last name. I
remember prospecting him when he came out, but when I'm
prospecting players, I'm not always listening to how you pronounce
their last names. And I haven't had to talk about
him on this podcast, or really on any podcast. Some
people say floor Noy, but then others say Flinoy, and
(15:21):
I kind of like that second pronunciation more, and it's
kind of how he sounded like he said it.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
So I'm gonna save Flanoy. Okay, we good, good, And I'm.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Talking about the wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys, the
wide receiver who went off this past week against the
Jets with Ceedee lamb out. In Week five, we saw
kind of a breakout game from Ryan Flanoy. He had
a thirty two percent target share. His previous career high
was only nine percent. He ended up catching six of
nine passes for one hundred and fourteen yards. Now, according
(15:49):
to PFF data, when you're looking at routes, run and
rout participation rate, Jalen Tolbert was still the number two
wide receiver for the Cowboys. With that being said, Tolbert's
been pretty mid. This is Flanoy's first game of the
year with a roundeshare above forty percent, and he went
nuts and that opportunity. It was largely driven by the
fact that Cavante Turpin was out. Remember I talked about
(16:12):
Jalen Tolbert as a sleeper this past week. Right process,
wrong result, Ceedee Lamb may not be back until week
seven or later.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
In Dallas.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
This week they get a fine matchup against the Panthers,
so Flinoy might work as a deeper play.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
By Tetoa McMillan.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Wide receivers are scoring a touchdown this year on about
every one hundred and fifty three receiving yards. Teteroa McMillan
has three hundred and fifty one yards. He still hasn't
found the end zone. Now, I'm fully aware that I've
talked about buying Tetroh McMillan in the past, but McMillan's
a regression candidate who needs to be called out. He's
seen no fewer than eight targets in a single game
(16:53):
this year. His target share is over twenty five percent
according to PFS Expected Fantasy Points Model, Based on where
mc millan is seeing his looks, he should have about
fifteen point two Ppero points per game. Instead, he's at
eleven point eight. His expected touchdown total is two and
a half. He scored zero Carolina gets Dallas this week.
(17:14):
This could be the last chance that you can buy
low on McMillan.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Add Michael Mayer. We've got a lot.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
Of tight end potential out there. There's Theo Johnson, there's
Mason Taylor, but don't sleep on Michael Mayer. Brock Bauers
has been dealing with his knee injury. He's been described
as week to week. Mayer didn't play last week because
of a concussion, but if he's back for week six,
he could have some usability. He'd likely step in and
play a legit role in this Raiders offense, and it's
(17:43):
one that doesn't have these like locked in surefire weapons.
We should find out soon if Michael Mayor clears concussion protocol,
and if he does, he's a legit streamer here in
week six. And if this brock Bauers injury lingers he
could be worthwhile beyond that too. Add Hassan Haskins and
(18:04):
Kamani Videll. Amarion Hampton is efficient on IR He's gonna
miss at least the next four weeks. Sometimes I hate
fantasy football. Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll are next up
for the Chargers with Naji Harris out of the picture.
Haskins has played as Hampton's backup. He was the one
who saw more immediate snaps when Hampton's injury occurred on Sunday,
(18:26):
So because of that, you should probably spend a little
bit more of your free agent budget on Haskins versus Videll.
But I think this is just going to be a
committee until Hampton returns, which hopefully is closer to that
four week mark than longer. I do think there's some
chance we get some production here though. This weekend, the
Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just let ric o'dowdell run
(18:48):
all over them. Then it's Indianapolis, which is a below
average matchup for running backs by jesseph points allowed, than Minnesota,
who's been about average, and then Tennessee, which is a
great matchup. And keep an eye on any movement the
Chargers make too. They're gonna have to add a running
back to that room. But for now, it's Haskins and
then Invitel just slightly below him, just slightly add the
(19:13):
Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders get the Titans this week.
Tennessee has been an awesome opponent for opposing defenses. They
have a lot of top twelve performance every week this season,
including three top six ones. The Raiders are at home
and I triple check that, and they're five and a
half point favorites in a game with a forty one
and a half point total. That means Tennessee has an
(19:36):
implied total that's well below twenty points. And Tennessee's allowed
the fifth highest pressure rate in the league this year,
So I think process wise, Vegas, they might not be
a great defense, but they do make sense as a streamer.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you
for listening.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are busterting for it pretty much anywhere
podcast can be found, and defer it to follow me
on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Thanks for listening, everyone, greatly appreciate you.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly ten Trends episode.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zappertha
j J zacher.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Reefon what's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty one of
the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks
for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer
to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate
destination for football fans. New customers can play free for
their share of millions and prizes with their first a
positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy
(00:34):
app and enter promo code Late Round to play free
for your share of millions.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York call
eight seven to seven and eight hope n Why in
Connecticut called eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seven
seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibility supply ends December
thirty first Sea terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions.
Let's get to these fifteen transactions, add Michael Carter. So
(01:00):
when I did this fifteen transaction show last week, we
had no idea that Trey Benson was about to go
on IR. We barely knew that he was hurt. We
just knew he was a little.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Bit banged up now.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Fortunately, on the Sleepers episode last week, I talked about
the Cardinals backfield. I talked about liking Michael Carter more
than a Mari de Marcado, and I discussed it with
late round fantasy football patrons as well. So hopefully anyone
consuming my content already has Michael Carter, but regardless if
you don't, he's probably the number one priority this week
off the waiver wire. Now, I'll be honest that Arizona
(01:32):
backfield split, it could have gotten in a different direction.
In situations like that, we don't know exactly what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I'm not on the Arizona Cardinals coaching staff.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
I'm just using context clues to try to get us
the best answer, and that answer in Week five was
Michael Carter. He played twenty more snaps than a Mari
de Marcado, and despite de Marcado being that third down back,
Carter still ran eight more routes. Michael Carter ended that
game with a seventy two percent running back rush share
in a seventeen percent target share. Those are kind of
(02:04):
awesome numbers. And then, as we know, Amaro de Marcado
had that costly.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Fumble in the game.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
That only makes me feel more bullish about Michael Carter's
workload moving forward. Trey Benson's injury it's supposed to sideline
him for four to six weeks, we realistically could get
another month of solid Michael Carter production by Trey McBride.
So let's stick with the Cardinals here and let's shift
our focus to Trey McBride. He's basically doing what he
(02:33):
did last year, except just a little bit worse. And
twenty twenty four is target share per game rate twenty
nine point nine percent. This year it's closer to twenty
seven percent. Last year, he averaged fifteen point nine expected
Fantasy points per game. That's in PPR formats, and that's
according to PFF's model. This year he's at thirteen point nine.
(02:54):
But this season, McBride's playing further below expectation. He's averaging
twelve and a half peep Zer points per game despite
getting eight point four targets per contest. And as I
just said, he has twelve and a half PPR points
per game. He should be closer to fourteen just based
on where he's seeing his targets. There might be a
frustrated trademcbride.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Manager out there.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
I know that some people in the late round Fantasy
Football discord they've been kind of frustrated with them, and
maybe this is just what he is this season. He's
just a high floor, low ceiling tight end. But I
do think he's more by than sell. The Cardinals have
a favorable rest of seasons schedule for tight ends. He's
playing below expectation, like I said, and over the last
(03:36):
few weeks, only Jake Ferguson is averaging more expected Fantasy
points per game than Trey McBride is. That's at the
tight end position. And it doesn't hurt that Marvin Harrison
Junior has not taken that next step this season. He's
a twenty percent target chair. This is admittedly a transaction
that I wouldn't go nuts over, Like, definitely don't pay
draft day costs to get Trey McBride. But if you
(03:59):
want to little bit more stability at the tight end position,
and you know the manager in your league is a
little bit frustrated with his production.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Then why not send an offer.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
And Kendre Miller so I talked about Kendre Miller a
couple times on last week's show, and in week five
we saw his snapshare get even better. His snapshare was
thirty nine percent. It was thirty two percent in week four,
and that resulted in him hitting a season high fifty
five point six percent running back rush share. Now, the
issue with Kendra Miller, and I talked about this last week,
(04:32):
is going to be his pass catching. Alvin Kamara is
still in that backfield. We've yet to see Miller get
to a five percent target share in a game this year,
and his rot participation rates have all been below thirty percent.
And then the other obvious thing here is that Kendre
Miller is going to work better in positive game scripts.
In New Orleans, They're not going to see many positive
(04:54):
game scripts, and that offense is not very good. They
were fine against the Giants this past weekend. Fine, but
any poor game script is going to lead to more
Alvin Kamara, not Kendre Miller. According to Fantasy Life data,
Kamara has played about eighty percent of the team's long
down in distant snaps this year. So it's fine to
have Kendre Miller rostered. It's a really weak waiver wire week.
(05:15):
If he's still out there, go ahead and Adam workloads
can shift, injuries can happen, trades can happen, But at
this moment, he's more like a random bye week fill
in than a true top thirty running back.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Sell Jamar Chase.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
So the Bengals offense was able to move the ball
a little bit better against the Lions this past weekend.
I talked about that with James Coe on last week's
Late Round Perspectives episode. It was good to see that
come to fruition. But guys, this Cincinnati offense is still
not very good. That Detroit defense is pretty banged up,
and it still took garbage time for the Bengals to
compile fantasy production. Jamar Chase is the one who benefited most.
(05:57):
He scored twenty nine PPR points. He had a twenty
five five percent target share, And trust me, guys, this
transaction has nothing to do with Jamar Chase the player.
He's obviously a fantastic player, one of the best in
the league, if not the best. I'm just not convinced
he's back from a fantasy perspective entering the week. I
talked about this on last week's ten Trends episode. Entering
(06:20):
the week, Chase had played eight games with Jake Browning
under center. He averaged eleven point two PPR points per
game in those contests. Outside of those games, since the
start of twenty twenty three, Chase was at twenty two
PPR points per game. He was a totally different wide
receiver in Fantasy football with and without Jake Browning, which
is not that surprising, but those splits are pretty glaring.
(06:43):
Now that twenty nine point outing is gonna help that average,
but we're still looking at a player, an unbelievably talented
player who's likely going to see some valleys with his
peaks this year. And honestly, the only reason why I'm
calling out Jamar Chase is because of rest of season rankings.
Entering Week five, Fantasy Pros rankers, they were still listing
(07:04):
Chase as a top ten player in Fantasy football, ahead
of players like James Cook, ahead of C. D. Lamb,
ahead of Devon A. Chan I was well below the market,
even knowing that he could have a great Week five performance.
And he had that great Week five performance, So what's
gonna happen to his rest of season ranking? It's more
than likely gonna rise, but I'm still concerned the Bengals
(07:28):
in that spot. Against the Lions, they still finished outside
the top twenty in total yards and EPA per play.
They were bottom half in the league and rushing success rate.
They allowed a top five pressure rate. This offense is
probably not gonna be very good as long as Jake
Browning is under center.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Like I could sit on this podcast and.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Easily call out T Higgins, but no one's buying t
Higgins right now given the rankings that I'm seeing, though,
people might be buying Jamar Chase still, and if you
can get them for a price of a top ten player,
I would do that. At Darnell Mooney, It's been a
pretty weird season for Darnell Mooney. He was banged up
(08:11):
throughout training camp and in the preseason, and then he
wasn't able to find the field until Week two against
the Vikings. But if you remember that game, the Falcons
had a pretty run heavy script because they were leading,
so we only had four targets, but he had a
nineteen percent target.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Share in that game.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
And then in Week three the Falcons couldn't do anything
offensively against the Panthers, Mooney still saw eleven targets in
a twenty seven percent target share, and then in Week four,
the last time we saw Atlanta, Mooney got hurt again.
But the team seems optimistic that he's gonna be able
to play this weekend. And given what I just said,
(08:49):
if we're just being totally objective here, we haven't really
seen a normal situation for Darnell Mooney this year, and
yet his fantasy managers have been dropping him. He's only
rostered in thirty three percent of Yahoo leagues right now.
Last season, he was one of the best deep ball
players in the NFL. He only trailed George Pickens, DK
Metcalf and Justin Jefferson in twenty plus air yard catches.
(09:12):
He had a twenty one percent target chair in that
Falcons offense. There's really no reason that he should be
sitting on the waiver wire in twelve team leagues. Atlanta
has a top ten rest of season schedule for wide
receivers according to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers two.
So you should be adding Darnell Mooney if he's out there.
(09:33):
Ad Kendrick Bourne, I have no idea at the time
of this recording how healthy Ricky Pierson and Juwan Jennings are.
But what I do know is that Kendrick Bourne had
a great Week five. He tied for the team lead
and target chair against the Rams. He ended up catching
ten of eleven targets for one hundred and forty two yards.
I think if one of Jennings or pearsall don't go
(09:55):
this weekend, Kendrick Bourne is probably going to operate as
a number two receiver. He's gonna be rewarded for how
he performed on Thursday night. You would think it seems
like that connection with Mac Jones was very, very real,
But I will say he technically did run fewer routes
than DeMarcus Robinson. But I'm still adding Kendrick Bourne given
(10:15):
that performance. Add Jake Toanjis now, since we're talking about
the forty nine ers, we might as well get this
out of the way too. Jake Toanjas is a reasonable
streamer for Week six. Kyle Shanahan said it was a
long shot for George Kittle to have his practice window
opened before Week six, so it's likely going to be
Toanjis as the primary pass catching tight end for the
(10:37):
forty nine ers. He finished Week five with a good
twenty two point nine percent target share. He's found the
end zone in back to back games, and in those
two games he scored fourteen point eight and seventeen point
one PPR points. The forty nine Ers to the Buccaneers
this weekend too. Tampa Bay ranks as a top five
opponent for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed so
far this year, so Toanjas is a very reason nile streamer. Now,
(11:01):
for the record, I wouldn't be adding him over Mason
Taylor or Theo Johnson. I just talked about Taylor and
Johnson last week. They have more season long upside, but
for this week you could add Tanjas by Juwan Jennings.
This fifteen transaction show is sponsored by the San Francisco
(11:21):
forty nine Ers. Now, in all seriousness, I wrote this
in the newsletter, but I said in fantasy football, sometimes
absence doesn't make the heart grow fonder. Sometimes absence makes
the heart forget the person even exists. And that's what
I feel like with Jawan Jennings right now. He was
a pretty high draft selection earlier in the summer, before
this holdout happened, and before that calf injury happened. Whether
(11:44):
that was an injury or not. Then it was a
shoulder injury, and now it's his ankle and ribs.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Now.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
I know Jennings plays a very physical style of ball,
but even by his standards, he's been beat up this year.
This transaction, it's kind like the Darnell Mooney transaction. We
really haven't seen much normalcy from Jennings in twenty twenty five,
but we've seen these glimpses of him being a very
usable fantasy asset. Back in Week two, the only game
(12:12):
where he was moderately healthy, and he ran a round
on at least eighty percent of San Francisco's dropbacks. He
finished the game with nineteen point nine PPR points in
a twenty six percent target share. There's obviously nothing wrong
with that at all, And right now you could probably
take someone on your bench and trade them for Juwan Jennings,
and over their next two games, San Francisco gets the
(12:34):
Buccaneers and the Falcons. Those are two strong matchups and
they have a strong rest of season schedule for wide
receivers according to justin Fantasy points allowed numbers, So why
not take a chance on Juwan Jennings and just cross
your fingers that he plays this weekend, and if he
doesn't play this weekend, he could still have decent value
rest of season. It feels like Juwan Jennings, which just
(12:54):
one decent game could totally flip perception, could totally flip
this script because there hasn't really been a normal game
for him this season. Actually, the only normal game that
he's played in he was great ad Isaac Teslaw. So
Khalif Raymond suffered a neck injury in the first quarter
of Detroit's game against Cincinnati in Week five, and that
(13:16):
opened the door for Isaac Teslaw to get some run
in that line's offense. According to PFF eighta, Tesla had
a fifty four percent route chare, which was the highest
of his season. Now, he only saw one target, but
of course, in typical Isaac Teslaw fashion, he scored on it.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Raymond could miss Week six, that would make.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Tesla a deeper sleeper and if he shows out, he
can maybe carve out a larger role in this offense.
It's one of the best offenses in football, and let's
be honest, he's one injury away from having an even
bigger role than that. So I don't think he's a
bad ad this week because the waiver wire is pretty weak.
(13:54):
Sell Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard had his best Fantasy total
of the season on Sunday, fourteen point eight PPR points.
He's now scored thirteen point nine, ten point six and
fourteen point eight PPR points over his last three games.
During his first two, he didn't hit double digits. We
know this Titans offense, though, isn't very good. It's likely
(14:15):
gonna cap pollard ceiling, but Tajy Spears being back, he's
gonna cap his ceiling two now. Spears only played twenty
six percent of Tennessee snaps on Sunday, but there's a
chance that they're just easing him back in. After all, last season,
when him and Pollard were both healthy, Tajay Spears' snapshare
hovered around the forty percent range, and Spears's presence has
(14:38):
already impacted Pollard, even though the bottom line didn't show that.
Pollard played a season low seventy two percent snapshare against
the Cardinals this past weekend. So thanks to that usable performance,
you might have an opportunity right now to sell Tony Pollard,
and I would do that if I could add Ryan Flanoy.
(15:00):
So I spent about twenty minutes on YouTube trying to
figure out how to pronounce this dude's last name. I
remember prospecting him when he came out, but when I'm
prospecting players, I'm not always listening to how you pronounce
their last names. And I haven't had to talk about
him on this podcast, or really on any podcast. Some
people say floor Noy, but then others say Flinoy, and
(15:21):
I kind of like that second pronunciation more, and it's
kind of how he sounded like he said it.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
So I'm gonna save Flanoy. Okay, we good, good, And I'm.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Talking about the wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys, the
wide receiver who went off this past week against the
Jets with Ceedee lamb out. In Week five, we saw
kind of a breakout game from Ryan Flanoy. He had
a thirty two percent target share. His previous career high
was only nine percent. He ended up catching six of
nine passes for one hundred and fourteen yards. Now, according
(15:49):
to PFF data, when you're looking at routes, run and
rout participation rate, Jalen Tolbert was still the number two
wide receiver for the Cowboys. With that being said, Tolbert's
been pretty mid. This is Flanoy's first game of the
year with a roundeshare above forty percent, and he went
nuts and that opportunity. It was largely driven by the
fact that Cavante Turpin was out. Remember I talked about
(16:12):
Jalen Tolbert as a sleeper this past week. Right process,
wrong result, Ceedee Lamb may not be back until week
seven or later.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
In Dallas.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
This week they get a fine matchup against the Panthers,
so Flinoy might work as a deeper play.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
By Tetoa McMillan.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Wide receivers are scoring a touchdown this year on about
every one hundred and fifty three receiving yards. Teteroa McMillan
has three hundred and fifty one yards. He still hasn't
found the end zone. Now, I'm fully aware that I've
talked about buying Tetroh McMillan in the past, but McMillan's
a regression candidate who needs to be called out. He's
seen no fewer than eight targets in a single game
(16:53):
this year. His target share is over twenty five percent
according to PFS Expected Fantasy Points Model, Based on where
mc millan is seeing his looks, he should have about
fifteen point two Ppero points per game. Instead, he's at
eleven point eight. His expected touchdown total is two and
a half. He scored zero Carolina gets Dallas this week.
(17:14):
This could be the last chance that you can buy
low on McMillan.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Add Michael Mayer. We've got a lot.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
Of tight end potential out there. There's Theo Johnson, there's
Mason Taylor, but don't sleep on Michael Mayer. Brock Bauers
has been dealing with his knee injury. He's been described
as week to week. Mayer didn't play last week because
of a concussion, but if he's back for week six,
he could have some usability. He'd likely step in and
play a legit role in this Raiders offense, and it's
(17:43):
one that doesn't have these like locked in surefire weapons.
We should find out soon if Michael Mayor clears concussion protocol,
and if he does, he's a legit streamer here in
week six. And if this brock Bauers injury lingers he
could be worthwhile beyond that too. Add Hassan Haskins and
(18:04):
Kamani Videll. Amarion Hampton is efficient on IR He's gonna
miss at least the next four weeks. Sometimes I hate
fantasy football. Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll are next up
for the Chargers with Naji Harris out of the picture.
Haskins has played as Hampton's backup. He was the one
who saw more immediate snaps when Hampton's injury occurred on Sunday,
(18:26):
So because of that, you should probably spend a little
bit more of your free agent budget on Haskins versus Videll.
But I think this is just going to be a
committee until Hampton returns, which hopefully is closer to that
four week mark than longer. I do think there's some
chance we get some production here though. This weekend, the
Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just let ric o'dowdell run
(18:48):
all over them. Then it's Indianapolis, which is a below
average matchup for running backs by jesseph points allowed, than Minnesota,
who's been about average, and then Tennessee, which is a
great matchup. And keep an eye on any movement the
Chargers make too. They're gonna have to add a running
back to that room. But for now, it's Haskins and
then Invitel just slightly below him, just slightly add the
(19:13):
Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders get the Titans this week.
Tennessee has been an awesome opponent for opposing defenses. They
have a lot of top twelve performance every week this season,
including three top six ones. The Raiders are at home
and I triple check that, and they're five and a
half point favorites in a game with a forty one
and a half point total. That means Tennessee has an
(19:36):
implied total that's well below twenty points. And Tennessee's allowed
the fifth highest pressure rate in the league this year,
So I think process wise, Vegas, they might not be
a great defense, but they do make sense as a streamer.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you
for listening.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are busterting for it pretty much anywhere
podcast can be found, and defer it to follow me
on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Thanks for listening, everyone, greatly appreciate you.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly ten Trends episode.
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