October 9, 2025 • 20 mins
After a strong week for the sleepers show, JJ tries to run it back with streaming quarterback recommendations, some deep wide receiver plays, and more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas
y Jake zacher.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Reefon What's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty three of
the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven seven eight ope n Why
(00:43):
in Connecticut called eight eight seven eight nine seven seven
seventy seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibillion striptions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. I was actually pretty pleased with how last
week's sleeper show went. I ranked justin Fields as my
cue two, and that was looking iffy at first, but
garbage time Fields came through and he scored twenty six
(01:05):
standard Fantasy points. Trey Tucker had no k outing. Sam
Darnold was a great call. Matthew Stafford posted some ridiculous
numbers where Shot White was great, Darren Waller balld out,
Rico Dowbell destroyed, Michael Carter was the right. Arizona Cardinals
running back. Theo Johnson had twenty one PPR points, Mason
Taylor had almost eighteen. Harold Fannin found the end zone.
(01:26):
I mean even Cay Dott and Cardio Kade had twelve
PPR points. We had some really big hits last week. Now,
of course, there were also some misses. I had the
right process with Jalen Tolbert in my opinion, just given
Ryan Flanoy's performance, but I picked the wrong Cowboys receiver.
The Rams defense really really choked, Woody Mark's two point
(01:49):
four PPR points, Blake Korum a horrible game, and Sean
Tucker wasn't great either. But all in all, that was
probably the best sleeper show the season. I was feeling
really iffy about it when I recorded it too. Let's
keep things going into Week six. We're gonna kick off
this week's show the same way we kicked off last
week's show, and that's with Matthew Stafford. You definitely have
(02:11):
to be worried about the Rams getting conservative and not
having to push things against this Ravens team because with
Lamar Jackson banged up and I'm assuming he's gonna be
out this week, though that's not confirmed right now, but
this Ravens offense is not very good at the moment
without Lamar Jackson. That's why the Rams are seven and
a half point road favorites. But we thought the exact
(02:31):
same thing last week against the forty nine ers, and
look what happened. The Rams are supposed to score some
points this week, and that's what matters most. They have
a twenty six point imply team total, which is one
of the best in the slate, and Baltimore is the
second best matchup so far this year by justin fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Teams are throwing about thirty eight.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
More yards on the Ravens compared to their season long averages.
Stafford's playing great football right now. He should be fine
as a starter this week. That's the only quarterback in
this tier of players roster in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo leaks let's move on to running back and
let's talk about Remandre Stevenson. Antonio Gibson is out for
the year with a torn acl and Treyvon Henderson isn't
(03:14):
quite ready yet. He's not quite ready to see the
majority of the work in that New England backfield. Stevenson
is a better cushion with his fumbling issues. As a result,
Stevenson is seeing the goal line work in that offense.
He's had a respectable route participation rate of fifty forty
seven percent over his last two games. Those aren't great numbers,
but they're usable. We can work with that. The Patriots
(03:36):
get the Saints this week. That game has the fastest
pace score among all matchups this week. That's just my
way of displaying which games might be faster paced, and
New England has a twenty four and a half point
implied team total. The Saints have also been worse at
limiting rushing yards to running backs than passing yards to quarterbacks.
I think Stevenson can be usable despite those fumbling issues.
(03:58):
Michael Carter saw the right kind of match up in
gamescript for his skill set, or at least how Arizona
sees his skill set.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
In week five.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
He ended the day with a seventy two percent running
back rush here in his seventeen percent target share, and
his backfield teammate made a costly mistake that could end
up costing him more work in Week six.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
That should only make you feel better about Michael Carter. Now.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Arizona doesn't have the greatest matchup in the world this
weekend against Indianapolis, but it's just slightly below average on
paper given the workload. I think Carter works a backup
running back I like more though, is Rico Dudel. Donald
is in the absolute perfect spot this week assuming Chewba
Hubbard doesn't play. But even if Hubbard does, Donald would
(04:40):
be considered more of a flex play given his performance
last week in the matchup this week. Not only that,
but Chewba Hubbard probably wouldn't see his normal workload Downald
gets a revenge game against the Cowboys this week. Dallas
has been weak defensively this year, both against the run
and the pass. They've allowed the second most adjusted fantasy
points to running backs. If Hubbards out, Dudle is legit
(05:02):
a low end RB one in fantasy. Moving on to
wide receiver, we'll see what's gonna happen with the forty
nine Ers pas catchers, But of the two Juwan Jennings
and Ricky Piersoll, it sounds better for Juwan Jennings this weekend,
and I'm into him. Like I said in the fifteen
Transaction Show, Jennings only had a route share above eighty
percent in one game this year, and in that game,
(05:23):
he scored almost twenty PPR points. The forty nine Ers
going to Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's allowed the twelfth
most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and they've
allowed the six highest adjusted target shair to the position.
So teams are throwing it to wide receivers when they
face the Bucks. Don't sleep on Jennings in that same game.
But on the opposite side of the field is Chris Godwin.
(05:45):
Now you may be questioning using Godwin based on the
fact that he didn't come through last week. He actually
saw his usage slip a little bit, that's true, but
Godwins saw his slot rate rise to fifty three percent
in Week five. San Francisco has been beating the slot
to start the year. When a justiner strength of opponent,
They've allowed the second most Fantasy points in the second
highest target shair to slot receivers in a game that
(06:07):
could see an OK amount of scoring.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I don't totally mind Godwin.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
It sounds like Darius Slayton's gonna miss Thursday Night's game
against the Eagles, which means Wandel Robinson is the clear
top target in that passing attack, which, on one hand
pretty scary. On the other, he can be peppered with
targets and that's what this is really about here. Robinson
is seeing the highest rout shares of his career right now,
and he's diplown eighteen percent target share just once this season.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
His matchup against the Eagles is no cakewalk.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
But if a player is probably gonna see a twenty
to twenty five percent target shair if not higher, then
he's gonna be called out on this show. I'll throw
Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden out there this week too.
The Packers may not throw the ball a toon this
week in Cincinnati, but the Bengals are a top five
team for wide receivers this year by justin Fantasy points allowed,
and green May has an implied team total of twenty
(06:59):
nine points, the high on the week there's touchdown potential
for these pass catchers now. Romeo Dobbs is probably the
preferred choice. The last time we saw him, he scored
twenty seven PPR points. He's running the most routes on
the Packers too, But it's not the worst spot in
the world either for Matthew Golden. At tight end this tier,
I got one for you. It's Darren Waller. The matchup
(07:19):
this week against the Chargers not nearly as good as
it was last week against the Panthers, but Waller saw
an uptick and row participation last week, going from thirty
six percent in his debut to sixty eight percent. He's
seen end zone targets in both games that he's played
this year. That touchdown upside is gonna be there each
week for Waller, and that's why at this moment I
(07:40):
have him ranked as a tight end one in Fantasy
rest of season. The next tier of players consists of
guys who are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of
Yahoo leagues. And I've got one more quarterback for you,
and that's Sam Darnold. Donald's coming off a huge performance
against the Bucks, where he scored a season high twenty
eight standard fantasy points, but he's been above the fifteen
(08:00):
mark in each of his last four games. The Seahawks
get the Jags this week, and while Jacksonville's defense has
been opportunistic this year, they're still allowing twenty eight passing
yards over expected per game. That's one of the higher
marks in football. They've also been the eleven best matchup
for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Seattle has a respectable
twenty two and a half point total. That makes Darnold
(08:22):
a decent streaming option. I think Hasan Haskins is gonna
be the one that gets the first crack at work
and that Chargers backfield without Omari and Hampton, and that's
big news because the Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just
watch Rico Daldell run all over them, and they've now
given up thirty four point three rushing yards over expected
this year to running backs. That's per game. That's basically
(08:45):
tied with the Bears as the worst mark in the league.
So if Haskins is getting work, and I don't mind
Kamani by Deell either, so we can throw him out
there too.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
But if Haskins is.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Getting work, he should be able to stay relatively efficient
even with the Arger's offensive line was now the other
running back I have in this tier is Kendre Miller.
I wouldn't be overly optimistic about Kendre Miller if Alvin
Kamara goes this weekend because there's some chance that New
Orleans is going to face a negative gamescript, which is
going to favor Kamara. With that being said, Kamara hurt
(09:17):
his ankle in practice on Wednesday. That means Miller would
be in line for a lot more work if Kamara
were to be sidelined at the time of this recording,
I have no idea if Kamara's going to be in
or out. I don't even know the severity of that injury,
but it's worth paying attention to. Next on this list
is Trey Tucker. I mentioned Tucker last week. He had
a respectable eleven point one PPR points on a seventeen
(09:40):
percent target share. He's now runner route on at least
ninety percent of Vegas's dropbacks in every game this year,
and this week the Raiders going a Titans team that's
been average against wide receivers by justin points allowed. He's
just kind of an ordinary play, but sometimes you need
that when bye weeks are here. Alec Pierce Smith's some
time due to a concussion, and it sounds like he
could be back this week. That may impact Josh Downs
(10:03):
to some degree, but it should be noted that Downs
is just mostly playing that slot role even when pierces out.
He has seen better route shares over the last two
weeks though, which yes, could have to do with there
being less of a rotation of their wide receivers. But
Downs is a talented player who's just kind of playing
less than expected to start the year. Regardless, Downs is
(10:24):
primarily their slot gye and Indianapolis gets Arizona this week.
The Cardinals are fourth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to
slot receivers and their seventh and adjusted slot target share allowed.
Those are pretty different compared to their rankings against all
wide receivers, which is thirteenth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed
and nineteenth and adjusted target share allowed. In other words,
(10:46):
teams have attacked Arizona via the slot, which could make
Downs kind of a sneaky play this week. Not someone
who's obvious to put in your lineup, though. Tennessee gets
Vegas this week, like I said, and the Raiders don't
have that much of a pass rush, he doesn't make
the defense unusable.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
More on that later, but it does mean that cam Ward.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Might be able to sit back in the pocket a
little bit longer and deliver balls down the field, and
that could be big for elk Iamnner, who has a
thirteen point seven average up to target and a nineteen
percent target share in the season. So in a plus matchup,
he does make some sense. And Darnell Mooney does too.
I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, but it's
weird on the fantasy community just doesn't seem to care
(11:25):
about Darnell Mooney. The Falcons get Buffalo this week, which
isn't an amazing matchup on paper, but there could be
a lot of passing volume in that.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Game for Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Meanwhile, Mooney has seen target shairs of nineteen percent and
twenty seven percent and his two completed games this year.
As long as he's healthy, he's a decent sleeper at
tight end. Mason Taylor is just seeing a lot of
work for the Jets. This matchup against Denver not an
easy one. They're a bottom ten matchup for tight ends
this year by justin points allowed. But we can't Deny
(11:54):
Taylor's volume. He's seen target shares of twenty six percent
and twenty seven percent over the last two weeks. This
game could hit a negative game script for the Jets,
leading to another high volume day, and that's all we
can ask for at tight end. I liked Harold Fannin's
matchup last week and he was fine, but they used
David and Joku more in the way that I thought
that they might use Fannin. I do like Djoku more
(12:17):
this week, but Fannin may not be a terrible play.
Pittsburgh's a bottom five team against tight ends this year
by justin points allowed, and Fannin is still seeing at
least four targets per game. The problem we ran into
last week is that his average up to target was
zero point eight yards, But maybe that leads to more
volume this week because they do get Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh's
(12:37):
sixth in the league and pressure rate, Dylan Gabriel may
be looking to get the ball out quick. Minnesota has
been quite as good in pressure rate this year. That's
who they played last week. Fannin's fifty percent routes share
from last week definitely worrisome, but it was seventy one
percent the week prior, so he's more of a desperation play.
(12:57):
But I do think the matchup is kind of there.
This final tier consists of players rostered and fewer than
twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, so we're digging deeper. We're
digging real deep. I got some crazy plays for you.
One quarterback you could look at is Bryce Young. I
know he's averaging just twelve point seven standard Fantasy points
per game, but he gets Dallas this week. The Cowboys
(13:19):
are the best matchup in football by adjusted points allowed,
and when quarterbacks face him this year, they're scoring seven
point three more points than their season long averages. Carolina
has got a decent twenty three point IMPLY team total
and they're at home, So Bryce Young makes sense if
Mac Jones ends up starting this week, which I think
that's where things are trending, and I think he could
(13:39):
work as a streamer. San Francisco has an okay enough
IMPLY team total over twenty two points. The pace score
of this game against Tampa Bay is above average for
the slate, and the Buccaneers have been the eighth best
matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted points allowed. They've
also given up seventeen passing yards over expected per game.
Mac Jones looked good last week. I think he could
(14:00):
work this week too. With this year at running back,
you often have to go with game script reliant players.
I say this each week. You can make the argument
that that's the case for any running back on these
sleeper shows. Now, with that in mind, one player who
sort of jumps out this week is Justice Hill. Baltimore
is a big underdog against the Rams, and we've seen
Hill hit a double digit percentage target share each week
(14:22):
this year. If that negative game script hits, we might
see more of him. According to Fantasy Life data, he's
played ninety five percent of.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
The team's two minute snaps this season.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Now, in that same game and for the same reason,
but on the opposite side is Blake Korum. If the
Rams get out to a lead and they're able to
hold that lead, we could end up seeing a decent
amount of Korum and Baltimore ranks is the best matchup
in football for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed.
And then the last game script dependent running back is
Emmanuel Wilson. Wilson's seen snapshares of twenty three percent twenty
(14:56):
nine percent over his last two games. The Packers are
fourteen and a half point favorites at home against the Bengals,
and Cincinnati's been a top five opponent for running backs
this year by justin points allowed. So if the Packers
get out to that lead, maybe they give Josh Jacobs
a little rest and they use a little bit more
Wilson on that same team as Dantavian Wicks. Fantasy managers
(15:17):
have Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden rostered in a whole
bunch of leagues.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Wis isn't. He's rostered in three percent of Yahoo leagues. Now.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
I do worry about overall passing volume in this game,
but Wicks actually ran more routes than Matthew Golden the
last time we saw the Packers, and he's also had
some games this year, specifically in Week three, where he
essentially just.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Played that Jaden Reid slot role.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
If that happens again this week, maybe he scored some
fantasy points. The Bengals have seen the sixth highest adjusted
slot target share in the league when that number overall
at wide receiver is twenty first for Cincinnati, meaning teams
are targeting their wide receivers out of the slot a
lot more when they face the Bengals, so maybe Wix
sees more volume than we're expecting. Calvin Austin is highly
(16:01):
likely out this week. The Steelers don't have a reliable
number two receiver, but I would imagine we see more
Roman Wilson than usual.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
The matchup the game environment not very.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Good, but if you want like an insanely deep sleeper,
keep an eye on Wilson to play a larger role
in that offense. Don't forget he's just a year removed
of being a Day two NFL Draft selection. Now. It
sounds like Juwan Jennings could go this week like I
talked about earlier, but it seems less likely for Ricky Piersoll.
Even though DeMarcus Robinson ran in front of Kendrick Bourne
(16:33):
last week. I'd imagine Bourne gets more run this week
given how he performed and Tampa Bay, like I said earlier,
with Juwan Jennings, it's not a bad matchup at all
for wide receivers in passing attacks in general, so let's
add Bourne to the list. Ryan Flanoy was another player
who came on last week despite running fewer routes than
the other players on his team, but he might be
(16:55):
rewarded as well. We have to keep an eye on
Cavante Turpin's injury because if he does go this week,
which doesn't seem that likely right now, it makes Flanoy
an even riskier start. But the Cowboys get a Panthers
team that's more neutral as a matchup, and Dallas has
a twenty six and a half point imply team total.
Flinoy's coming off a game where he had a thirty
(17:15):
two percent target chair. I think there's a chance he
sees a decent target share in this game too, based
on what he did last week.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
Now, Taikwon Thornton isn't seeing as.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Much work with Xavier Worthy back, but hear me out
because I think he might be an okay play this week.
Thornton has only seen target shairs of five point seven
percent and twelve point five percent over his last two games,
but he scored eight point one and twelve PPR points,
one due to a touchdown one because he can generate
these big plays. His average depth of target last week
(17:46):
was twenty five point six yards. That might be big
against this depleted Lions defense. Detroit has seen the highest
percentage of attempts that they faced travel twenty or more
yards through the air this year across the entire league.
In other words, teams are throwing it deep against them.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
So Thornton in a game that's projected to be high scoring,
he might be able to come through with.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
A big player two. Now, moving on to tight end
Theo Johnson, he has to get a shout. Not only
is the Giants wide receiver room depleted, but Johnson has
seen target shares of twenty five percent and eighteen percent
over his last two games. His row participation rates there's
still not quite as high as I'd like to see them,
but he might be able to get by on sheer
volume against Philadelphia because it is a tough matchup, but
(18:30):
there could be enough looks there. I talked about Michael
Mayer on the fifteen Transactions episode, and he works in
this Tier two. There's not a ton of data to
talk about here. This matchup against Tennessee is actually kind
of mediocre on paper, but he was a good prospect.
He could step in and be that team's top tight
end with Brock Bauers out and without studs across that lineup,
(18:50):
Maybe Michael Mayer sees some volume. And then finally, Jake
Tunges the forty nine ers get a Bucks team that
ranks the fifth best matchup for tight ends by justin
points a lot, and Tungs hit season highs in target
share and.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Route share last week.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
With Ricky Piarsal likely out and obviously George Kittle being out,
he should be a reliable streamer once again. Now on defense,
this week, we got the Patriots against the Saints, hoping
that New England can play defense like they did last
week against the Bills. There's Jacksonville against Seattle, though, like
I've been saying with Jacksonville, let's not assume they can
just keep generating all these turnovers. Their pressure rate is
(19:27):
not that that great. It's just a really tough streaming week.
And then my go to streamer this week has been Vegas.
Tennessee's a top six matchup for defenses by justin points allowed.
They've given up at least two sacks per game. They
also have an implied total that's well under twenty points,
so I think Vegas at least has.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
A floor for you.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are by starting
for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone one. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag episode.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas
y Jake zacher.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Reefon What's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty three of
the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven seven eight ope n Why
(00:43):
in Connecticut called eight eight seven eight nine seven seven
seventy seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibillion striptions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. I was actually pretty pleased with how last
week's sleeper show went. I ranked justin Fields as my
cue two, and that was looking iffy at first, but
garbage time Fields came through and he scored twenty six
(01:05):
standard Fantasy points. Trey Tucker had no k outing. Sam
Darnold was a great call. Matthew Stafford posted some ridiculous
numbers where Shot White was great, Darren Waller balld out,
Rico Dowbell destroyed, Michael Carter was the right. Arizona Cardinals
running back. Theo Johnson had twenty one PPR points, Mason
Taylor had almost eighteen. Harold Fannin found the end zone.
(01:26):
I mean even Cay Dott and Cardio Kade had twelve
PPR points. We had some really big hits last week. Now,
of course, there were also some misses. I had the
right process with Jalen Tolbert in my opinion, just given
Ryan Flanoy's performance, but I picked the wrong Cowboys receiver.
The Rams defense really really choked, Woody Mark's two point
(01:49):
four PPR points, Blake Korum a horrible game, and Sean
Tucker wasn't great either. But all in all, that was
probably the best sleeper show the season. I was feeling
really iffy about it when I recorded it too. Let's
keep things going into Week six. We're gonna kick off
this week's show the same way we kicked off last
week's show, and that's with Matthew Stafford. You definitely have
(02:11):
to be worried about the Rams getting conservative and not
having to push things against this Ravens team because with
Lamar Jackson banged up and I'm assuming he's gonna be
out this week, though that's not confirmed right now, but
this Ravens offense is not very good at the moment
without Lamar Jackson. That's why the Rams are seven and
a half point road favorites. But we thought the exact
(02:31):
same thing last week against the forty nine ers, and
look what happened. The Rams are supposed to score some
points this week, and that's what matters most. They have
a twenty six point imply team total, which is one
of the best in the slate, and Baltimore is the
second best matchup so far this year by justin fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Teams are throwing about thirty eight.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
More yards on the Ravens compared to their season long averages.
Stafford's playing great football right now. He should be fine
as a starter this week. That's the only quarterback in
this tier of players roster in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo leaks let's move on to running back and
let's talk about Remandre Stevenson. Antonio Gibson is out for
the year with a torn acl and Treyvon Henderson isn't
(03:14):
quite ready yet. He's not quite ready to see the
majority of the work in that New England backfield. Stevenson
is a better cushion with his fumbling issues. As a result,
Stevenson is seeing the goal line work in that offense.
He's had a respectable route participation rate of fifty forty
seven percent over his last two games. Those aren't great numbers,
but they're usable. We can work with that. The Patriots
(03:36):
get the Saints this week. That game has the fastest
pace score among all matchups this week. That's just my
way of displaying which games might be faster paced, and
New England has a twenty four and a half point
implied team total. The Saints have also been worse at
limiting rushing yards to running backs than passing yards to quarterbacks.
I think Stevenson can be usable despite those fumbling issues.
(03:58):
Michael Carter saw the right kind of match up in
gamescript for his skill set, or at least how Arizona
sees his skill set.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
In week five.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
He ended the day with a seventy two percent running
back rush here in his seventeen percent target share, and
his backfield teammate made a costly mistake that could end
up costing him more work in Week six.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
That should only make you feel better about Michael Carter. Now.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Arizona doesn't have the greatest matchup in the world this
weekend against Indianapolis, but it's just slightly below average on
paper given the workload. I think Carter works a backup
running back I like more though, is Rico Dudel. Donald
is in the absolute perfect spot this week assuming Chewba
Hubbard doesn't play. But even if Hubbard does, Donald would
(04:40):
be considered more of a flex play given his performance
last week in the matchup this week. Not only that,
but Chewba Hubbard probably wouldn't see his normal workload Downald
gets a revenge game against the Cowboys this week. Dallas
has been weak defensively this year, both against the run
and the pass. They've allowed the second most adjusted fantasy
points to running backs. If Hubbards out, Dudle is legit
(05:02):
a low end RB one in fantasy. Moving on to
wide receiver, we'll see what's gonna happen with the forty
nine Ers pas catchers, But of the two Juwan Jennings
and Ricky Piersoll, it sounds better for Juwan Jennings this weekend,
and I'm into him. Like I said in the fifteen
Transaction Show, Jennings only had a route share above eighty
percent in one game this year, and in that game,
(05:23):
he scored almost twenty PPR points. The forty nine Ers
going to Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's allowed the twelfth
most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and they've
allowed the six highest adjusted target shair to the position.
So teams are throwing it to wide receivers when they
face the Bucks. Don't sleep on Jennings in that same game.
But on the opposite side of the field is Chris Godwin.
(05:45):
Now you may be questioning using Godwin based on the
fact that he didn't come through last week. He actually
saw his usage slip a little bit, that's true, but
Godwins saw his slot rate rise to fifty three percent
in Week five. San Francisco has been beating the slot
to start the year. When a justiner strength of opponent,
They've allowed the second most Fantasy points in the second
highest target shair to slot receivers in a game that
(06:07):
could see an OK amount of scoring.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I don't totally mind Godwin.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
It sounds like Darius Slayton's gonna miss Thursday Night's game
against the Eagles, which means Wandel Robinson is the clear
top target in that passing attack, which, on one hand
pretty scary. On the other, he can be peppered with
targets and that's what this is really about here. Robinson
is seeing the highest rout shares of his career right now,
and he's diplown eighteen percent target share just once this season.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
His matchup against the Eagles is no cakewalk.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
But if a player is probably gonna see a twenty
to twenty five percent target shair if not higher, then
he's gonna be called out on this show. I'll throw
Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden out there this week too.
The Packers may not throw the ball a toon this
week in Cincinnati, but the Bengals are a top five
team for wide receivers this year by justin Fantasy points allowed,
and green May has an implied team total of twenty
(06:59):
nine points, the high on the week there's touchdown potential
for these pass catchers now. Romeo Dobbs is probably the
preferred choice. The last time we saw him, he scored
twenty seven PPR points. He's running the most routes on
the Packers too, But it's not the worst spot in
the world either for Matthew Golden. At tight end this tier,
I got one for you. It's Darren Waller. The matchup
(07:19):
this week against the Chargers not nearly as good as
it was last week against the Panthers, but Waller saw
an uptick and row participation last week, going from thirty
six percent in his debut to sixty eight percent. He's
seen end zone targets in both games that he's played
this year. That touchdown upside is gonna be there each
week for Waller, and that's why at this moment I
(07:40):
have him ranked as a tight end one in Fantasy
rest of season. The next tier of players consists of
guys who are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of
Yahoo leagues. And I've got one more quarterback for you,
and that's Sam Darnold. Donald's coming off a huge performance
against the Bucks, where he scored a season high twenty
eight standard fantasy points, but he's been above the fifteen
(08:00):
mark in each of his last four games. The Seahawks
get the Jags this week, and while Jacksonville's defense has
been opportunistic this year, they're still allowing twenty eight passing
yards over expected per game. That's one of the higher
marks in football. They've also been the eleven best matchup
for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Seattle has a respectable
twenty two and a half point total. That makes Darnold
(08:22):
a decent streaming option. I think Hasan Haskins is gonna
be the one that gets the first crack at work
and that Chargers backfield without Omari and Hampton, and that's
big news because the Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just
watch Rico Daldell run all over them, and they've now
given up thirty four point three rushing yards over expected
this year to running backs. That's per game. That's basically
(08:45):
tied with the Bears as the worst mark in the league.
So if Haskins is getting work, and I don't mind
Kamani by Deell either, so we can throw him out
there too.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
But if Haskins is.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Getting work, he should be able to stay relatively efficient
even with the Arger's offensive line was now the other
running back I have in this tier is Kendre Miller.
I wouldn't be overly optimistic about Kendre Miller if Alvin
Kamara goes this weekend because there's some chance that New
Orleans is going to face a negative gamescript, which is
going to favor Kamara. With that being said, Kamara hurt
(09:17):
his ankle in practice on Wednesday. That means Miller would
be in line for a lot more work if Kamara
were to be sidelined at the time of this recording,
I have no idea if Kamara's going to be in
or out. I don't even know the severity of that injury,
but it's worth paying attention to. Next on this list
is Trey Tucker. I mentioned Tucker last week. He had
a respectable eleven point one PPR points on a seventeen
(09:40):
percent target share. He's now runner route on at least
ninety percent of Vegas's dropbacks in every game this year,
and this week the Raiders going a Titans team that's
been average against wide receivers by justin points allowed. He's
just kind of an ordinary play, but sometimes you need
that when bye weeks are here. Alec Pierce Smith's some
time due to a concussion, and it sounds like he
could be back this week. That may impact Josh Downs
(10:03):
to some degree, but it should be noted that Downs
is just mostly playing that slot role even when pierces out.
He has seen better route shares over the last two
weeks though, which yes, could have to do with there
being less of a rotation of their wide receivers. But
Downs is a talented player who's just kind of playing
less than expected to start the year. Regardless, Downs is
(10:24):
primarily their slot gye and Indianapolis gets Arizona this week.
The Cardinals are fourth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to
slot receivers and their seventh and adjusted slot target share allowed.
Those are pretty different compared to their rankings against all
wide receivers, which is thirteenth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed
and nineteenth and adjusted target share allowed. In other words,
(10:46):
teams have attacked Arizona via the slot, which could make
Downs kind of a sneaky play this week. Not someone
who's obvious to put in your lineup, though. Tennessee gets
Vegas this week, like I said, and the Raiders don't
have that much of a pass rush, he doesn't make
the defense unusable.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
More on that later, but it does mean that cam Ward.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Might be able to sit back in the pocket a
little bit longer and deliver balls down the field, and
that could be big for elk Iamnner, who has a
thirteen point seven average up to target and a nineteen
percent target share in the season. So in a plus matchup,
he does make some sense. And Darnell Mooney does too.
I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, but it's
weird on the fantasy community just doesn't seem to care
(11:25):
about Darnell Mooney. The Falcons get Buffalo this week, which
isn't an amazing matchup on paper, but there could be
a lot of passing volume in that.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Game for Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Meanwhile, Mooney has seen target shairs of nineteen percent and
twenty seven percent and his two completed games this year.
As long as he's healthy, he's a decent sleeper at
tight end. Mason Taylor is just seeing a lot of
work for the Jets. This matchup against Denver not an
easy one. They're a bottom ten matchup for tight ends
this year by justin points allowed. But we can't Deny
(11:54):
Taylor's volume. He's seen target shares of twenty six percent
and twenty seven percent over the last two weeks. This
game could hit a negative game script for the Jets,
leading to another high volume day, and that's all we
can ask for at tight end. I liked Harold Fannin's
matchup last week and he was fine, but they used
David and Joku more in the way that I thought
that they might use Fannin. I do like Djoku more
(12:17):
this week, but Fannin may not be a terrible play.
Pittsburgh's a bottom five team against tight ends this year
by justin points allowed, and Fannin is still seeing at
least four targets per game. The problem we ran into
last week is that his average up to target was
zero point eight yards, But maybe that leads to more
volume this week because they do get Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh's
(12:37):
sixth in the league and pressure rate, Dylan Gabriel may
be looking to get the ball out quick. Minnesota has
been quite as good in pressure rate this year. That's
who they played last week. Fannin's fifty percent routes share
from last week definitely worrisome, but it was seventy one
percent the week prior, so he's more of a desperation play.
(12:57):
But I do think the matchup is kind of there.
This final tier consists of players rostered and fewer than
twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, so we're digging deeper. We're
digging real deep. I got some crazy plays for you.
One quarterback you could look at is Bryce Young. I
know he's averaging just twelve point seven standard Fantasy points
per game, but he gets Dallas this week. The Cowboys
(13:19):
are the best matchup in football by adjusted points allowed,
and when quarterbacks face him this year, they're scoring seven
point three more points than their season long averages. Carolina
has got a decent twenty three point IMPLY team total
and they're at home, So Bryce Young makes sense if
Mac Jones ends up starting this week, which I think
that's where things are trending, and I think he could
(13:39):
work as a streamer. San Francisco has an okay enough
IMPLY team total over twenty two points. The pace score
of this game against Tampa Bay is above average for
the slate, and the Buccaneers have been the eighth best
matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted points allowed. They've
also given up seventeen passing yards over expected per game.
Mac Jones looked good last week. I think he could
(14:00):
work this week too. With this year at running back,
you often have to go with game script reliant players.
I say this each week. You can make the argument
that that's the case for any running back on these
sleeper shows. Now, with that in mind, one player who
sort of jumps out this week is Justice Hill. Baltimore
is a big underdog against the Rams, and we've seen
Hill hit a double digit percentage target share each week
(14:22):
this year. If that negative game script hits, we might
see more of him. According to Fantasy Life data, he's
played ninety five percent of.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
The team's two minute snaps this season.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Now, in that same game and for the same reason,
but on the opposite side is Blake Korum. If the
Rams get out to a lead and they're able to
hold that lead, we could end up seeing a decent
amount of Korum and Baltimore ranks is the best matchup
in football for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed.
And then the last game script dependent running back is
Emmanuel Wilson. Wilson's seen snapshares of twenty three percent twenty
(14:56):
nine percent over his last two games. The Packers are
fourteen and a half point favorites at home against the Bengals,
and Cincinnati's been a top five opponent for running backs
this year by justin points allowed. So if the Packers
get out to that lead, maybe they give Josh Jacobs
a little rest and they use a little bit more
Wilson on that same team as Dantavian Wicks. Fantasy managers
(15:17):
have Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden rostered in a whole
bunch of leagues.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Wis isn't. He's rostered in three percent of Yahoo leagues. Now.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
I do worry about overall passing volume in this game,
but Wicks actually ran more routes than Matthew Golden the
last time we saw the Packers, and he's also had
some games this year, specifically in Week three, where he
essentially just.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Played that Jaden Reid slot role.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
If that happens again this week, maybe he scored some
fantasy points. The Bengals have seen the sixth highest adjusted
slot target share in the league when that number overall
at wide receiver is twenty first for Cincinnati, meaning teams
are targeting their wide receivers out of the slot a
lot more when they face the Bengals, so maybe Wix
sees more volume than we're expecting. Calvin Austin is highly
(16:01):
likely out this week. The Steelers don't have a reliable
number two receiver, but I would imagine we see more
Roman Wilson than usual.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
The matchup the game environment not very.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Good, but if you want like an insanely deep sleeper,
keep an eye on Wilson to play a larger role
in that offense. Don't forget he's just a year removed
of being a Day two NFL Draft selection. Now. It
sounds like Juwan Jennings could go this week like I
talked about earlier, but it seems less likely for Ricky Piersoll.
Even though DeMarcus Robinson ran in front of Kendrick Bourne
(16:33):
last week. I'd imagine Bourne gets more run this week
given how he performed and Tampa Bay, like I said earlier,
with Juwan Jennings, it's not a bad matchup at all
for wide receivers in passing attacks in general, so let's
add Bourne to the list. Ryan Flanoy was another player
who came on last week despite running fewer routes than
the other players on his team, but he might be
(16:55):
rewarded as well. We have to keep an eye on
Cavante Turpin's injury because if he does go this week,
which doesn't seem that likely right now, it makes Flanoy
an even riskier start. But the Cowboys get a Panthers
team that's more neutral as a matchup, and Dallas has
a twenty six and a half point imply team total.
Flinoy's coming off a game where he had a thirty
(17:15):
two percent target chair. I think there's a chance he
sees a decent target share in this game too, based
on what he did last week.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
Now, Taikwon Thornton isn't seeing as.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Much work with Xavier Worthy back, but hear me out
because I think he might be an okay play this week.
Thornton has only seen target shairs of five point seven
percent and twelve point five percent over his last two games,
but he scored eight point one and twelve PPR points,
one due to a touchdown one because he can generate
these big plays. His average depth of target last week
(17:46):
was twenty five point six yards. That might be big
against this depleted Lions defense. Detroit has seen the highest
percentage of attempts that they faced travel twenty or more
yards through the air this year across the entire league.
In other words, teams are throwing it deep against them.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
So Thornton in a game that's projected to be high scoring,
he might be able to come through with.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
A big player two. Now, moving on to tight end
Theo Johnson, he has to get a shout. Not only
is the Giants wide receiver room depleted, but Johnson has
seen target shares of twenty five percent and eighteen percent
over his last two games. His row participation rates there's
still not quite as high as I'd like to see them,
but he might be able to get by on sheer
volume against Philadelphia because it is a tough matchup, but
(18:30):
there could be enough looks there. I talked about Michael
Mayer on the fifteen Transactions episode, and he works in
this Tier two. There's not a ton of data to
talk about here. This matchup against Tennessee is actually kind
of mediocre on paper, but he was a good prospect.
He could step in and be that team's top tight
end with Brock Bauers out and without studs across that lineup,
(18:50):
Maybe Michael Mayer sees some volume. And then finally, Jake
Tunges the forty nine ers get a Bucks team that
ranks the fifth best matchup for tight ends by justin
points a lot, and Tungs hit season highs in target
share and.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Route share last week.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
With Ricky Piarsal likely out and obviously George Kittle being out,
he should be a reliable streamer once again. Now on defense,
this week, we got the Patriots against the Saints, hoping
that New England can play defense like they did last
week against the Bills. There's Jacksonville against Seattle, though, like
I've been saying with Jacksonville, let's not assume they can
just keep generating all these turnovers. Their pressure rate is
(19:27):
not that that great. It's just a really tough streaming week.
And then my go to streamer this week has been Vegas.
Tennessee's a top six matchup for defenses by justin points allowed.
They've given up at least two sacks per game. They
also have an implied total that's well under twenty points,
so I think Vegas at least has.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
A floor for you.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are by starting
for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone one. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag episode.
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