October 10, 2025 • 24 mins
Should leagues allow trade vetoing? Is TreVeyon Henderson already a bust? What should we expect from the Bengals offense with Joe Flacco? JJ talks about those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacherathay
Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in
this episode ten thirty four of the Late Round Fantasy
football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Hey, thanks for tuning in.
(00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven to seven eight hope en
(00:44):
Why In Connecticut called eighty eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states. Eligibility restrictions apply.
Ends December thirty first terms at DraftKings dot com Slash Promotions.
It's a mail bag day, Let's get to it. This
question this week is from Patreon. It's from Gilu. It
says when during the season is a good time to
(01:05):
start trying to consolidate your power into a starting lineup
thanks to the draft guide, I have five wide receivers
inside the top sixteen rest of season. In a typical
two wide receiver in one flex league, I can only
start three at most. I'm five to zero, but could
probably upgrade an RB two. Do I hold pat and
protect against bie weeks and injury or try to consolidate
(01:26):
into a juggernaut starting lineup thanks as always. Look, I'm
of the belief that you should always be trying to
consolidate into a juggernaut almost immediately when the season starts.
Leaving points on the bench isn't usually a good idea
because obviously those points aren't gonna help you get a win.
It's good and fun, and it's helpful to have a backup.
(01:46):
Don't get me wrong. In an ideal world, you'd have
a great starting lineup and a great bench, but you're
trying to get first place. If you're sitting with five
top sixteen wide receivers, at least package one of them
up with one of your running backs and upgrade that
running back spot. Do a two for one. Now. I
don't want to be the analyst who says that wide
(02:07):
receiver threes don't matter. Or RB twos just don't matter
because they do, especially in a deeper format where it's
not always easy to field, like a full starting lineup.
But in a league where you don't start many players,
where your starting lineup is shallower, those players, those wide
receiver three types, they matter less. You know, like the
Jacoby Myers of the world. They're gonna be more helpful
(02:30):
for a deep league with deep starting lineups versus one
where you're just starting two wide receivers, two running backs
and no flex spots, because each spot in that starting
lineup when it's shallower is more impactful because there are
fewer of them. So if you're trotting out Jacoby Myers,
you're running the risk of not getting that much production
in a given week, even though he still can get
(02:51):
you some production in some weeks. Jacoby Myers is not
a mechag Buca, and I love Jacoby Myers. He's not
catching strays here. I think he's a good player, and
I think he's gonna bounce back and not be as
bad as he's been the last couple of weeks. He's
just like the quintessential wide receiver three right now in fantasy.
But this is why I say each year, if you're
(03:12):
in a shallower league, an eight a ten team league,
you should probably spend up at least on a quarterback
or a tight end, maybe even both both of those
onesie positions. That's much more difficult to do. That's an
opportunity cost that's much more difficult to take on in
a fourteen team league where you're starting like three wide receivers,
(03:32):
two running backs, and three flex spots. Because of that
opportunity cost, different league sizes, different league types, they're gonna
make players more and less valuable, even though that player
is scoring the exact same number of Fantasy points. Of course,
there's insane overlap, but mecha BUCA is good in all formats.
But you should really have a good grasp on your
(03:53):
individual league to know how spread out you should be,
to know how much depth you need versus how aggressive
you can be at optimizing that starting lineup. But I
would argue in the majority of leagues, optimizing that starting
lineup is the number one thing to do. You don't
want to worry too much about downside in fantasy football.
It's an upside game with only one winner. This last
(04:17):
question from Patreon is from Corey it says, how do
I convince my league that vetoing trades for any reason
other than blatant collusion or apathy is just petty and lame.
I'd like them to remove the veto system entirely. I
feel like I answer this question once a year, but
it's really important. Hear me out. Guys, listen to me
very closely. Vetowing trades is childish, truly it is. You're
(04:42):
sitting there saying that your league mate is so stupid,
is so inexperienced, is so wrong that in order to
save your league, you're gonna say no to a trade
that you weren't even involved with. If that's the way
that your league thinks, then your league doesn't treat you
like an a adult making your own decisions, and you
(05:02):
may need to find a new league. Not only is
vetoing wrong, but a lot of times trades you think
should be vetoed end up not being bad trades at all.
In the end, quit acting like you have all the
answers and you know what's right and wrong, like you're
some fantasy football king. The only time vetoing should be
allowed is if there's clear collusion, if a team is
(05:25):
just giving up doesn't care is moving players because they're
checked out. I'll just group that all together as collusion.
If that's the case, though, you have to number one,
talk to the managers and prove that to be true.
But then number two, my god, people play fantasy football
with better human beings. Quit playing fantasy football with these
(05:45):
five year olds who throw a temper tantrum when they lose.
The problem here is that vetoing would never have to
be a discussion if people were just normal functioning adults.
Everything stems from people trying to cheat or ruin the
fun for everyone else, and if they're doing that, then
they're fantasy managers that you don't want to play with.
(06:06):
Stop vetoing traits. It's a childish thing to do. And
if you think that your league needs vetos, then you
need to recalibrate and look at the managers in your league.
This has question from Chris. It says, how do you
view Colston Loveland coming out of the bye? High pedigree player,
but limited productions so far. So I'm actually intrigued by
(06:28):
both Lovelan and Luther Burden coming out of the bye.
If any of you followed my prospecting work this offseason,
the ZA model had Loveland as being as just as
good of a prospect as Tyler Warren. Warren obviously he's
in a position, He's in a situation where his team
had a plan for his unique skill set, and he
has a more unique skill set, so it's really working out.
(06:49):
And that's not to say that Warren's overrated or that
he's bad. It's to say that Colston Loveland has a
chance to be really good. Meanwhile, the ZA model loved
Luther Burden. He was in the elite producer category, albeit barely,
and we usually don't see that from second round picks.
We've gotten a glimpse of his upside this season, but
we're not going to see it consistently enough until a
(07:11):
Lamine's Akias stops playing as many steps as he's playing.
The last time we saw Chicago's a Kis ran a
route on sixty eight percent of their dropbacks, Luther Burden
was at twenty seven percent. But like most rookies, I
fully expect them to get more work as the season
goes on, and with them coming out of a bye,
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a nice uptick
here in Week six, which means you might want to
(07:33):
stash them right now before they're potentially waiver wire ads
next week. It's not a guarantee, but it's a pretty
decent game theory. Play. This next one's an email from
Andrew that I received last week. Now, some of the
data in this isn't exactly correct, but it's not that
relevant to what we're going to be talking about, it,
says hey, JJ. I recently started looking at expected fantasy
(07:55):
points to help supplement my research on buy lower ad candidates.
One thing I'm trying to Hermann is what kind of
player should I use this data point for and how
should I use it? An example, maybe to avoid using
it for someone like Xavier Lagette, who just doesn't seem
to have the juice but is scoring minus eight point
nine expected fantasy points per game. What about someone more
complicated like Jerry Judy, who has the opportunities but could
(08:18):
simply be washed. However, he is finishing with minus five
point six expected fantasy points per game. Thanks Drew, Yeah,
I actually think you're looking at this properly. Expected fantasy
points can often be misused in the fantasy football space
because there are a lot of assumptions that are being
made with it now. For those who aren't aware, there
are a number of expected fantasy point models out there
(08:40):
that try to describe how many points a player should
have based on where he's seeing his touches. So can
look at history, show what would be expected, and then
see how many points a player should have based on that.
And it's a good tool to have because it can
help us easily spot things like regression. If a player
is like way way out performing his expected fantasy points,
(09:00):
he'll probably eventually cool off a little bit. And then
if a player is underperforming, we should expect him to
perform better. The problem with this, obviously, is that not
all situations are created equal. A player in the Lions
offense might have an easier time outperforming expectation because that
offensive environment is a lot better. A player in the
Browns offense, the Titans offense, they're gonna have a harder
(09:23):
time playing at that expectation. And then, as you know
it with Jerry Judy, sometimes players just aren't very good,
maybe they are washed, or sometimes they're really good, so
you can work off of that too. But the assumption
that's often made, which is what I wanted to bring
up here, but there's this assumption that players are just
gonna see the exact same volume week over week. Now,
(09:45):
there is predictive power to this, don't get me wrong,
But if a player hasn't expected Fantasy points mark in
a given game that's insanely high, we shouldn't just assume
that it's going to be that high forever. Like even
these numbers, these volume driven numbers, can regress. Remember at
the start of the season, when people have like forty
percent target shairs, they're not going to maintain a forty
percent target share week in and week out. It's just
(10:07):
another tool for us, It's another puzzle piece. It's just
a quick reference for us. We want to see if
someone should perform better or not. Moving forward, you still
need to dig deeper into the individual player, look at
his talent, look at his situation, all of that stuff.
But Drew overall, you're definitely thinking about this properly. This
(10:28):
last question from twitters from at Winslow, Aaron It says,
does Joe Flacco help or hurt Jamar Chase and t Higgins.
So I talked a little bit about this Flacco trade
on Wednesday's ten Trends episode, But I do want to
provide a little bit more detail about how I'm feeling here.
My overall feeling is that this is an upgrade for
the Bengals offense and for t Higgins and for Jamar
(10:50):
Chase and hopefully Chase brown too, because I don't know
how it can get dramatically worse. Now. I have my concerns,
which is what I talked about on Wednesday Show. Joe
Flacco has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the
league under pressure over the last two seasons, and Cincinnati
clearly doesn't have the offensive line to help with that. Now,
(11:10):
with that being said, he's not going to be under
pressure on one hundred percent of his dropbacks. So far
this season, Bengals quarterbacks have faced pressure on thirty eight
percent of their dropbacks according next to Gen Stats. That's
eighth worst in football. There are teams out there who
are in worse spots. Now, it's not just an offensive
line statistic. Just to be clear, pressure rate can come
(11:31):
down to how the quarterback is delivering the football too.
I'm just giving you some descriptive data, but that means
the majority of dropbacks will not be under pressure for Cincinnati.
Jake Browning, according to PFF has eighty one pass attempts
this year while being kept clean in the pocket. According
to that same data, among thirty qualified quarterbacks, Browning is
(11:52):
twenty fifth and passer rating within that clean pocket. But
guess what, Joe Flacco this year is twenty ninth. Now
that being said, when we're comparing metrics from one player
to another, you can't just ignore all context. I sent
a tweet out this week right after the Flacco trade
that said, quote the Bengals getting upgrade in EPA per
dropback per next Gen stats. They're going from the last
(12:15):
ranked quarterback in Jake Browning minus point four to four
to the second to last rank quarterback in Joe Flacco.
And while all of that is true, EPA per dropback
isn't like some flawless metric. Clearly, throwing the ball to
Jamar Chase to T Higgins, that's probably gonna be a
better experience than what Joe Flacco was throwing to in Cleveland.
I think if you were to sort of look at
(12:36):
how these quarterbacks have performed this year, Jake Browning versus
Joe Flacco, they're not that far off from one another statistically.
But then you layer on that context, and you could
argue that Browning should be posting better numbers. Not only that,
but if you look at twenty twenty four numbers, Flacco
is actually eleventh in the NFL and passer rating from
a clean pocket, So maybe there's something there. I just
(12:59):
don't think Jake Browning was the same quarterback in twenty
twenty five versus how he played in twenty twenty three.
There were some metrics in twenty twenty three, like how
he played in a clean pocket where he wasn't that bad,
And maybe it's just the offensive line, but there were
plenty of instances that I saw with my eyes because
I do watch the games too, where he just didn't
(13:19):
feel comfortable at all and he missed open targets. I
think the hope with Flacco is that he can do
more at the line and he won't be as afraid
to let his wide receivers make a play. That's the hope.
But given all of this, the data of Flacco under pressure,
his poor performance so far this year, I mean the
fact that he's forty years old, I'm trying to be realistic.
(13:41):
I'm still lower than the market on the pass catchers there.
I think Jamar Chase he's fine as like a top
ten wide receiver, but if you look at rest of
season rankings, right now he's being ranked as a top
five wide receiver and t Higgins probably more of a
wide receiver three type. And then I talked all about
Chase Brown and his volume on that ten Trends episode
as well. I think Brown is gonna struggle to be
(14:03):
efficient this year, but if his volume keeps up, and yeah,
that's a big if. Still we don't know if that's
gonna happen. But if this volume keeps up, he's gonna
be more productive. It's almost impossible not to be. So overall,
it's a net positive for the Bengals. Just don't take
it too far, at least not right now. The last
(14:23):
question this week is from Patreon. It's from Harry Hensley eleven.
It says, just how many times does Ramandre Stevenson have
to put the ball on the ground to give Trayvon
Henderson some more work? Not one, not two, not three.
I imagine Gibson's injury opens the door for Trayveon, but
the fact he was losing work to Gibson in the
first place is worrisome. Are there any metrics that tell
(14:45):
you Henderson just might not be the prospect we thought,
or is this just early season rookie struggles. Thank you
for hearing my tilt. All right, this isn't directly related
to your question here, but it also kind of is
to all the Henderson stuff. I've just got to get
something off my chest. Some people hate it when I
do this, some people love it when I do this,
(15:07):
but this is just me. I'm passionate about this stuff.
I love this stuff. I don't think I should be
doing this as my job if I didn't. I've found
the reaction to rookies this season to be absolutely insane.
And I talked about this a couple of weeks ago too,
Like there are people who's still to this day they
email me with questions, and those questions start with with
(15:28):
this disappointing rookie running backclass dot dot dot, Like, folks,
we need some perspective here. So far this season, Ashton
gent A, Marian Hampton, and Quinshawn Judkins are all over
fifteen PPR points per game. I'm recording this before Thursday
Night's game, but Cam Skataboo is at thirteen point seven.
Jacory Krosky Merritt, who's trending in the right direction. He's
at twelve. That's five rookie running backs in five weeks,
(15:52):
their first five games of their careers getting to twelve
PPR points per game. Since twenty eleven, do you know
how many rookie running back classes have had five players
score twelve or more PPR points per game across the
entire season? One of them one we saw it in
twenty twenty where there were five. That twenty seventeen class
(16:14):
that everyone looks at as the best one that we've
seen over the last decade plus, that class had four
rookies get the twelve or more PPR points per game
minimum eight games played. Dalvin Cook he got there, but
he only played four games. Now, of course, the players
doing that now may not finish there. We have a
lot of games to still play. But hopefully that puts
(16:36):
into perspective how this rookie draft class is actually done.
I think there's just been really really high expectations for
rookies this year, and maybe it's because people like myself,
how did this rookie running back classes being really good?
Or maybe you heard me getting excited about Trayvon Henderson
this offseason, and so far he's sing the b or
Jayden Blue, liking him as a flyer bshard Smith. But guys,
(17:02):
I can't stress this enough. Liking a flyer a literal
last round pick or a double digit round pick, does
not mean that there's a high likelihood of that flyer
actually hitting and becoming a week in, week out starter,
just as there's not a high likelihood of a flyer
veteran running back hitting. Like, how's Ray Davis doing this year?
(17:23):
What about Tank Bigsby? What about Braylan Allen pre injury?
No one seems to care about those guys, and yet
every week it's beashall Tooton sucks. Did you see that
player where he just ran right into the defender? Why
aren't we doing that with veteran running backs? You, guys,
I don't understand. There were just a lot of rookie
running backs that we were drafting late this year because
(17:44):
it was a really interesting and good rookie class. But
drafting a first year player in the double digit rounds
makes a ton of sense. We know rookies performed better
during the second half of the season. We know that
there's still potential for more of these guys to emerge.
The fantasy football season doesn't end after five weeks, and
(18:05):
so far this rookie running back class has actually been awesome.
It's just that we focus on the players who haven't
been awesome, because that's what humans do. We like to
focus on the negatives. RJ. Harvey, Caleb Johnson, Traveon Henderson,
and yeah, those guys, they had more draft capitals spent
on them, and people are more frustrated given that cost
(18:27):
to acquire. But we're still doing this exact same thing
with the late round rookie running backs. Not every player
is gonna hit. We're also five weeks into the season.
We know that we typically see that uptick and rookie
production during the second half of the year. Now, I
know that's more chatter about this rookie class as a whole.
And this question was about Trayvon Henderson. But the idea
(18:49):
that Henderson just might not be as good of a
prospect as we all thought, that idea is just way
too premature in my eyes. Yes, it's possible that that's
the case. Of course, probability wise, we'd probably lean that
way right now. But this also comes down to what
your expectations were. I for sure thought that he would
have a bigger workload by now, but I'm also recognizing
(19:11):
that rookies have a lot more volatility from a floor
ceiling perspective to start their rookie seasons. Basically, you didn't
draft Henderson or any other rookie running back for their
September numbers, and in hindsight, that should have been talked
about more by me in the preseason. I should have
dedicated more time to that talking about on the podcast
and writing about it in the draft guide. It's a
(19:33):
concept I'll talk more about next offseason. I just don't
want to get into it right now because that's an
entire podcast. But you drafted these guys to get their
season long numbers, which typically get better as the season
goes on. But remember, not all of these players are
gonna hit. It's not a guarantee that Traveon Henderson turns
(19:54):
his season around, or that RJ. Harvey gets better as
the season gets going, or that Caleb Johnson sees the field.
None of that is a guarantee, just like it's not
a guarantee that the veterans he would be drafting are
gonna do the same thing. Some of the veterans bus too.
We just shouldn't lean so far in one direction at
this point in the season, unless we're talking about like
(20:15):
a Caleb Johnson situation, which is pretty unique. There's still
plenty of time for Trayvon Henderson to figure this out.
And that's not just me like coping. I hate that
when I say stuff like this where I'm defending a
player that I liked, that's gonna be the response for
some people, You're just coping. I'm not coping. I don't
care where I was at with players in the preseason.
(20:35):
I care about right now. I want to help you
guys win it fantasy football right now. Take lock is
one of the biggest drivers of being a bad fantasy
football analyst. This is just the way that I play
and analyze fantasy football because I know that historically we
see this happen sometimes with rookies. Sometimes it takes a minute.
(20:57):
It's not a lock that it's gonna turn around. But
I would much rather bin into a strong rookie who
starts off slow on the volume front than some random
veteran who's also starting slow in the volume front, because
there's more ambiguity and more upside with that rookie now,
specifically to Henderson, I don't think he's been very good
to start the year. His pass pro has been the
(21:17):
opposite of what many expected entering the league, and his
rushing yards over expected per attempt is pretty poor. I
personally think they're not doing enough in New England to
get him the ball in space, which is where he's
going to be better. But he still hasn't looked the
part as a rusher. It's a small sample though. Meanwhile,
he has the exact same success rate basically as Ramandre Stevenson.
(21:39):
The good news is that this Antonio Gibson injury, it
does open things up a little bit. Of course, it's
not a good sign that a guy like Gibson was
in Henderson's way, but Gibson was also taking like twenty
percent of their snaps each week. I think there's a
good chance that we see over a fifty percent snap
rate for Henderson this week, and Henderson last week saw
a season high fifty three percent route chare. That's really
(22:01):
where the upside is. It's his pass catching that was
the Traveon Henderson thesis from the start, not that he'd
becomes some like eighty percent running back rush are player.
But I think we can wait a little bit before
we say that he's a bad prospect or we just
completely overvalued him as a prospect. Of course that's in
the range of outcomes, and of course that might happen.
I'm just saying we don't have that answer yet. Thankfully,
(22:23):
we're probably gonna learn a lot more about him soon.
I just won't bury ninety nine percent of rookies after
five weeks. I won't sit on my podcast and say, Okay,
we've seen enough. He touched the ball forty times in
one month. I know that he's overrated. I don't know that.
I think we can say there's a chance. There's clearly
more of a chance today than there was in August,
(22:44):
but I don't know if that's really helpful or not, Like,
what does that matter? For now? You just have to
hope that New England starts to deploy him more as
a pass catcher, to really let him show off his
money making skill set. And not only should that naturally
happen as he learns the game he gets more comfortable,
but it'll happen slightly faster now that Antonio Gibson is out.
I doubt Henderson is gonna be a league winning player,
(23:07):
if that's really what you're asking here. I doubt he's
gonna be a league winning player, but I don't think
he's already dust. I think everyone should be living in
the gray area with Travon Henderson right now and stop
thinking that these rookies are underperforming based on a few
bad starts. And I'm not saying the question is asking that.
I'm just making that note. It's actually been a good
(23:28):
rookie class overall so far, and things should only get better.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a budworting
for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Late Round Perspectives later
(23:48):
today and also the Late Round Fantasy Football show that'll
be live on YouTube YouTube dot com slash at Late
Round FF and then it will find itself in this
podcast feed tomorrow morning. Enjoy your week end. I'll talk
to you next week. M
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacherathay
Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in
this episode ten thirty four of the Late Round Fantasy
football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Hey, thanks for tuning in.
(00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven to seven eight hope en
(00:44):
Why In Connecticut called eighty eight seventy nine seven seven
seven seven eighteen plus and most states. Eligibility restrictions apply.
Ends December thirty first terms at DraftKings dot com Slash Promotions.
It's a mail bag day, Let's get to it. This
question this week is from Patreon. It's from Gilu. It
says when during the season is a good time to
(01:05):
start trying to consolidate your power into a starting lineup
thanks to the draft guide, I have five wide receivers
inside the top sixteen rest of season. In a typical
two wide receiver in one flex league, I can only
start three at most. I'm five to zero, but could
probably upgrade an RB two. Do I hold pat and
protect against bie weeks and injury or try to consolidate
(01:26):
into a juggernaut starting lineup thanks as always. Look, I'm
of the belief that you should always be trying to
consolidate into a juggernaut almost immediately when the season starts.
Leaving points on the bench isn't usually a good idea
because obviously those points aren't gonna help you get a win.
It's good and fun, and it's helpful to have a backup.
(01:46):
Don't get me wrong. In an ideal world, you'd have
a great starting lineup and a great bench, but you're
trying to get first place. If you're sitting with five
top sixteen wide receivers, at least package one of them
up with one of your running backs and upgrade that
running back spot. Do a two for one. Now. I
don't want to be the analyst who says that wide
(02:07):
receiver threes don't matter. Or RB twos just don't matter
because they do, especially in a deeper format where it's
not always easy to field, like a full starting lineup.
But in a league where you don't start many players,
where your starting lineup is shallower, those players, those wide
receiver three types, they matter less. You know, like the
Jacoby Myers of the world. They're gonna be more helpful
(02:30):
for a deep league with deep starting lineups versus one
where you're just starting two wide receivers, two running backs
and no flex spots, because each spot in that starting
lineup when it's shallower is more impactful because there are
fewer of them. So if you're trotting out Jacoby Myers,
you're running the risk of not getting that much production
in a given week, even though he still can get
(02:51):
you some production in some weeks. Jacoby Myers is not
a mechag Buca, and I love Jacoby Myers. He's not
catching strays here. I think he's a good player, and
I think he's gonna bounce back and not be as
bad as he's been the last couple of weeks. He's
just like the quintessential wide receiver three right now in fantasy.
But this is why I say each year, if you're
(03:12):
in a shallower league, an eight a ten team league,
you should probably spend up at least on a quarterback
or a tight end, maybe even both both of those
onesie positions. That's much more difficult to do. That's an
opportunity cost that's much more difficult to take on in
a fourteen team league where you're starting like three wide receivers,
(03:32):
two running backs, and three flex spots. Because of that
opportunity cost, different league sizes, different league types, they're gonna
make players more and less valuable, even though that player
is scoring the exact same number of Fantasy points. Of course,
there's insane overlap, but mecha BUCA is good in all formats.
But you should really have a good grasp on your
(03:53):
individual league to know how spread out you should be,
to know how much depth you need versus how aggressive
you can be at optimizing that starting lineup. But I
would argue in the majority of leagues, optimizing that starting
lineup is the number one thing to do. You don't
want to worry too much about downside in fantasy football.
It's an upside game with only one winner. This last
(04:17):
question from Patreon is from Corey it says, how do
I convince my league that vetoing trades for any reason
other than blatant collusion or apathy is just petty and lame.
I'd like them to remove the veto system entirely. I
feel like I answer this question once a year, but
it's really important. Hear me out. Guys, listen to me
very closely. Vetowing trades is childish, truly it is. You're
(04:42):
sitting there saying that your league mate is so stupid,
is so inexperienced, is so wrong that in order to
save your league, you're gonna say no to a trade
that you weren't even involved with. If that's the way
that your league thinks, then your league doesn't treat you
like an a adult making your own decisions, and you
(05:02):
may need to find a new league. Not only is
vetoing wrong, but a lot of times trades you think
should be vetoed end up not being bad trades at all.
In the end, quit acting like you have all the
answers and you know what's right and wrong, like you're
some fantasy football king. The only time vetoing should be
allowed is if there's clear collusion, if a team is
(05:25):
just giving up doesn't care is moving players because they're
checked out. I'll just group that all together as collusion.
If that's the case, though, you have to number one,
talk to the managers and prove that to be true.
But then number two, my god, people play fantasy football
with better human beings. Quit playing fantasy football with these
(05:45):
five year olds who throw a temper tantrum when they lose.
The problem here is that vetoing would never have to
be a discussion if people were just normal functioning adults.
Everything stems from people trying to cheat or ruin the
fun for everyone else, and if they're doing that, then
they're fantasy managers that you don't want to play with.
(06:06):
Stop vetoing traits. It's a childish thing to do. And
if you think that your league needs vetos, then you
need to recalibrate and look at the managers in your league.
This has question from Chris. It says, how do you
view Colston Loveland coming out of the bye? High pedigree player,
but limited productions so far. So I'm actually intrigued by
(06:28):
both Lovelan and Luther Burden coming out of the bye.
If any of you followed my prospecting work this offseason,
the ZA model had Loveland as being as just as
good of a prospect as Tyler Warren. Warren obviously he's
in a position, He's in a situation where his team
had a plan for his unique skill set, and he
has a more unique skill set, so it's really working out.
(06:49):
And that's not to say that Warren's overrated or that
he's bad. It's to say that Colston Loveland has a
chance to be really good. Meanwhile, the ZA model loved
Luther Burden. He was in the elite producer category, albeit barely,
and we usually don't see that from second round picks.
We've gotten a glimpse of his upside this season, but
we're not going to see it consistently enough until a
(07:11):
Lamine's Akias stops playing as many steps as he's playing.
The last time we saw Chicago's a Kis ran a
route on sixty eight percent of their dropbacks, Luther Burden
was at twenty seven percent. But like most rookies, I
fully expect them to get more work as the season
goes on, and with them coming out of a bye,
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a nice uptick
here in Week six, which means you might want to
(07:33):
stash them right now before they're potentially waiver wire ads
next week. It's not a guarantee, but it's a pretty
decent game theory. Play. This next one's an email from
Andrew that I received last week. Now, some of the
data in this isn't exactly correct, but it's not that
relevant to what we're going to be talking about, it,
says hey, JJ. I recently started looking at expected fantasy
(07:55):
points to help supplement my research on buy lower ad candidates.
One thing I'm trying to Hermann is what kind of
player should I use this data point for and how
should I use it? An example, maybe to avoid using
it for someone like Xavier Lagette, who just doesn't seem
to have the juice but is scoring minus eight point
nine expected fantasy points per game. What about someone more
complicated like Jerry Judy, who has the opportunities but could
(08:18):
simply be washed. However, he is finishing with minus five
point six expected fantasy points per game. Thanks Drew, Yeah,
I actually think you're looking at this properly. Expected fantasy
points can often be misused in the fantasy football space
because there are a lot of assumptions that are being
made with it now. For those who aren't aware, there
are a number of expected fantasy point models out there
(08:40):
that try to describe how many points a player should
have based on where he's seeing his touches. So can
look at history, show what would be expected, and then
see how many points a player should have based on that.
And it's a good tool to have because it can
help us easily spot things like regression. If a player
is like way way out performing his expected fantasy points,
(09:00):
he'll probably eventually cool off a little bit. And then
if a player is underperforming, we should expect him to
perform better. The problem with this, obviously, is that not
all situations are created equal. A player in the Lions
offense might have an easier time outperforming expectation because that
offensive environment is a lot better. A player in the
Browns offense, the Titans offense, they're gonna have a harder
(09:23):
time playing at that expectation. And then, as you know
it with Jerry Judy, sometimes players just aren't very good,
maybe they are washed, or sometimes they're really good, so
you can work off of that too. But the assumption
that's often made, which is what I wanted to bring
up here, but there's this assumption that players are just
gonna see the exact same volume week over week. Now,
(09:45):
there is predictive power to this, don't get me wrong,
But if a player hasn't expected Fantasy points mark in
a given game that's insanely high, we shouldn't just assume
that it's going to be that high forever. Like even
these numbers, these volume driven numbers, can regress. Remember at
the start of the season, when people have like forty
percent target shairs, they're not going to maintain a forty
percent target share week in and week out. It's just
(10:07):
another tool for us, It's another puzzle piece. It's just
a quick reference for us. We want to see if
someone should perform better or not. Moving forward, you still
need to dig deeper into the individual player, look at
his talent, look at his situation, all of that stuff.
But Drew overall, you're definitely thinking about this properly. This
(10:28):
last question from twitters from at Winslow, Aaron It says,
does Joe Flacco help or hurt Jamar Chase and t Higgins.
So I talked a little bit about this Flacco trade
on Wednesday's ten Trends episode, But I do want to
provide a little bit more detail about how I'm feeling here.
My overall feeling is that this is an upgrade for
the Bengals offense and for t Higgins and for Jamar
(10:50):
Chase and hopefully Chase brown too, because I don't know
how it can get dramatically worse. Now. I have my concerns,
which is what I talked about on Wednesday Show. Joe
Flacco has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the
league under pressure over the last two seasons, and Cincinnati
clearly doesn't have the offensive line to help with that. Now,
(11:10):
with that being said, he's not going to be under
pressure on one hundred percent of his dropbacks. So far
this season, Bengals quarterbacks have faced pressure on thirty eight
percent of their dropbacks according next to Gen Stats. That's
eighth worst in football. There are teams out there who
are in worse spots. Now, it's not just an offensive
line statistic. Just to be clear, pressure rate can come
(11:31):
down to how the quarterback is delivering the football too.
I'm just giving you some descriptive data, but that means
the majority of dropbacks will not be under pressure for Cincinnati.
Jake Browning, according to PFF has eighty one pass attempts
this year while being kept clean in the pocket. According
to that same data, among thirty qualified quarterbacks, Browning is
(11:52):
twenty fifth and passer rating within that clean pocket. But
guess what, Joe Flacco this year is twenty ninth. Now
that being said, when we're comparing metrics from one player
to another, you can't just ignore all context. I sent
a tweet out this week right after the Flacco trade
that said, quote the Bengals getting upgrade in EPA per
dropback per next Gen stats. They're going from the last
(12:15):
ranked quarterback in Jake Browning minus point four to four
to the second to last rank quarterback in Joe Flacco.
And while all of that is true, EPA per dropback
isn't like some flawless metric. Clearly, throwing the ball to
Jamar Chase to T Higgins, that's probably gonna be a
better experience than what Joe Flacco was throwing to in Cleveland.
I think if you were to sort of look at
(12:36):
how these quarterbacks have performed this year, Jake Browning versus
Joe Flacco, they're not that far off from one another statistically.
But then you layer on that context, and you could
argue that Browning should be posting better numbers. Not only that,
but if you look at twenty twenty four numbers, Flacco
is actually eleventh in the NFL and passer rating from
a clean pocket, So maybe there's something there. I just
(12:59):
don't think Jake Browning was the same quarterback in twenty
twenty five versus how he played in twenty twenty three.
There were some metrics in twenty twenty three, like how
he played in a clean pocket where he wasn't that bad,
And maybe it's just the offensive line, but there were
plenty of instances that I saw with my eyes because
I do watch the games too, where he just didn't
(13:19):
feel comfortable at all and he missed open targets. I
think the hope with Flacco is that he can do
more at the line and he won't be as afraid
to let his wide receivers make a play. That's the hope.
But given all of this, the data of Flacco under pressure,
his poor performance so far this year, I mean the
fact that he's forty years old, I'm trying to be realistic.
(13:41):
I'm still lower than the market on the pass catchers there.
I think Jamar Chase he's fine as like a top
ten wide receiver, but if you look at rest of
season rankings, right now he's being ranked as a top
five wide receiver and t Higgins probably more of a
wide receiver three type. And then I talked all about
Chase Brown and his volume on that ten Trends episode
as well. I think Brown is gonna struggle to be
(14:03):
efficient this year, but if his volume keeps up, and yeah,
that's a big if. Still we don't know if that's
gonna happen. But if this volume keeps up, he's gonna
be more productive. It's almost impossible not to be. So overall,
it's a net positive for the Bengals. Just don't take
it too far, at least not right now. The last
(14:23):
question this week is from Patreon. It's from Harry Hensley eleven.
It says, just how many times does Ramandre Stevenson have
to put the ball on the ground to give Trayvon
Henderson some more work? Not one, not two, not three.
I imagine Gibson's injury opens the door for Trayveon, but
the fact he was losing work to Gibson in the
first place is worrisome. Are there any metrics that tell
(14:45):
you Henderson just might not be the prospect we thought,
or is this just early season rookie struggles. Thank you
for hearing my tilt. All right, this isn't directly related
to your question here, but it also kind of is
to all the Henderson stuff. I've just got to get
something off my chest. Some people hate it when I
do this, some people love it when I do this,
(15:07):
but this is just me. I'm passionate about this stuff.
I love this stuff. I don't think I should be
doing this as my job if I didn't. I've found
the reaction to rookies this season to be absolutely insane.
And I talked about this a couple of weeks ago too,
Like there are people who's still to this day they
email me with questions, and those questions start with with
(15:28):
this disappointing rookie running backclass dot dot dot, Like, folks,
we need some perspective here. So far this season, Ashton
gent A, Marian Hampton, and Quinshawn Judkins are all over
fifteen PPR points per game. I'm recording this before Thursday
Night's game, but Cam Skataboo is at thirteen point seven.
Jacory Krosky Merritt, who's trending in the right direction. He's
at twelve. That's five rookie running backs in five weeks,
(15:52):
their first five games of their careers getting to twelve
PPR points per game. Since twenty eleven, do you know
how many rookie running back classes have had five players
score twelve or more PPR points per game across the
entire season? One of them one we saw it in
twenty twenty where there were five. That twenty seventeen class
(16:14):
that everyone looks at as the best one that we've
seen over the last decade plus, that class had four
rookies get the twelve or more PPR points per game
minimum eight games played. Dalvin Cook he got there, but
he only played four games. Now, of course, the players
doing that now may not finish there. We have a
lot of games to still play. But hopefully that puts
(16:36):
into perspective how this rookie draft class is actually done.
I think there's just been really really high expectations for
rookies this year, and maybe it's because people like myself,
how did this rookie running back classes being really good?
Or maybe you heard me getting excited about Trayvon Henderson
this offseason, and so far he's sing the b or
Jayden Blue, liking him as a flyer bshard Smith. But guys,
(17:02):
I can't stress this enough. Liking a flyer a literal
last round pick or a double digit round pick, does
not mean that there's a high likelihood of that flyer
actually hitting and becoming a week in, week out starter,
just as there's not a high likelihood of a flyer
veteran running back hitting. Like, how's Ray Davis doing this year?
(17:23):
What about Tank Bigsby? What about Braylan Allen pre injury?
No one seems to care about those guys, and yet
every week it's beashall Tooton sucks. Did you see that
player where he just ran right into the defender? Why
aren't we doing that with veteran running backs? You, guys,
I don't understand. There were just a lot of rookie
running backs that we were drafting late this year because
(17:44):
it was a really interesting and good rookie class. But
drafting a first year player in the double digit rounds
makes a ton of sense. We know rookies performed better
during the second half of the season. We know that
there's still potential for more of these guys to emerge.
The fantasy football season doesn't end after five weeks, and
(18:05):
so far this rookie running back class has actually been awesome.
It's just that we focus on the players who haven't
been awesome, because that's what humans do. We like to
focus on the negatives. RJ. Harvey, Caleb Johnson, Traveon Henderson,
and yeah, those guys, they had more draft capitals spent
on them, and people are more frustrated given that cost
(18:27):
to acquire. But we're still doing this exact same thing
with the late round rookie running backs. Not every player
is gonna hit. We're also five weeks into the season.
We know that we typically see that uptick and rookie
production during the second half of the year. Now, I
know that's more chatter about this rookie class as a whole.
And this question was about Trayvon Henderson. But the idea
(18:49):
that Henderson just might not be as good of a
prospect as we all thought, that idea is just way
too premature in my eyes. Yes, it's possible that that's
the case. Of course, probability wise, we'd probably lean that
way right now. But this also comes down to what
your expectations were. I for sure thought that he would
have a bigger workload by now, but I'm also recognizing
(19:11):
that rookies have a lot more volatility from a floor
ceiling perspective to start their rookie seasons. Basically, you didn't
draft Henderson or any other rookie running back for their
September numbers, and in hindsight, that should have been talked
about more by me in the preseason. I should have
dedicated more time to that talking about on the podcast
and writing about it in the draft guide. It's a
(19:33):
concept I'll talk more about next offseason. I just don't
want to get into it right now because that's an
entire podcast. But you drafted these guys to get their
season long numbers, which typically get better as the season
goes on. But remember, not all of these players are
gonna hit. It's not a guarantee that Traveon Henderson turns
(19:54):
his season around, or that RJ. Harvey gets better as
the season gets going, or that Caleb Johnson sees the field.
None of that is a guarantee, just like it's not
a guarantee that the veterans he would be drafting are
gonna do the same thing. Some of the veterans bus too.
We just shouldn't lean so far in one direction at
this point in the season, unless we're talking about like
(20:15):
a Caleb Johnson situation, which is pretty unique. There's still
plenty of time for Trayvon Henderson to figure this out.
And that's not just me like coping. I hate that
when I say stuff like this where I'm defending a
player that I liked, that's gonna be the response for
some people, You're just coping. I'm not coping. I don't
care where I was at with players in the preseason.
(20:35):
I care about right now. I want to help you
guys win it fantasy football right now. Take lock is
one of the biggest drivers of being a bad fantasy
football analyst. This is just the way that I play
and analyze fantasy football because I know that historically we
see this happen sometimes with rookies. Sometimes it takes a minute.
(20:57):
It's not a lock that it's gonna turn around. But
I would much rather bin into a strong rookie who
starts off slow on the volume front than some random
veteran who's also starting slow in the volume front, because
there's more ambiguity and more upside with that rookie now,
specifically to Henderson, I don't think he's been very good
to start the year. His pass pro has been the
(21:17):
opposite of what many expected entering the league, and his
rushing yards over expected per attempt is pretty poor. I
personally think they're not doing enough in New England to
get him the ball in space, which is where he's
going to be better. But he still hasn't looked the
part as a rusher. It's a small sample though. Meanwhile,
he has the exact same success rate basically as Ramandre Stevenson.
(21:39):
The good news is that this Antonio Gibson injury, it
does open things up a little bit. Of course, it's
not a good sign that a guy like Gibson was
in Henderson's way, but Gibson was also taking like twenty
percent of their snaps each week. I think there's a
good chance that we see over a fifty percent snap
rate for Henderson this week, and Henderson last week saw
a season high fifty three percent route chare. That's really
(22:01):
where the upside is. It's his pass catching that was
the Traveon Henderson thesis from the start, not that he'd
becomes some like eighty percent running back rush are player.
But I think we can wait a little bit before
we say that he's a bad prospect or we just
completely overvalued him as a prospect. Of course that's in
the range of outcomes, and of course that might happen.
I'm just saying we don't have that answer yet. Thankfully,
(22:23):
we're probably gonna learn a lot more about him soon.
I just won't bury ninety nine percent of rookies after
five weeks. I won't sit on my podcast and say, Okay,
we've seen enough. He touched the ball forty times in
one month. I know that he's overrated. I don't know that.
I think we can say there's a chance. There's clearly
more of a chance today than there was in August,
(22:44):
but I don't know if that's really helpful or not, Like,
what does that matter? For now? You just have to
hope that New England starts to deploy him more as
a pass catcher, to really let him show off his
money making skill set. And not only should that naturally
happen as he learns the game he gets more comfortable,
but it'll happen slightly faster now that Antonio Gibson is out.
I doubt Henderson is gonna be a league winning player,
(23:07):
if that's really what you're asking here. I doubt he's
gonna be a league winning player, but I don't think
he's already dust. I think everyone should be living in
the gray area with Travon Henderson right now and stop
thinking that these rookies are underperforming based on a few
bad starts. And I'm not saying the question is asking that.
I'm just making that note. It's actually been a good
(23:28):
rookie class overall so far, and things should only get better.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a budworting
for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Late Round Perspectives later
(23:48):
today and also the Late Round Fantasy Football show that'll
be live on YouTube YouTube dot com slash at Late
Round FF and then it will find itself in this
podcast feed tomorrow morning. Enjoy your week end. I'll talk
to you next week. M
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