October 14, 2025 • 23 mins
Is it time to move on from AJ Brown? What about Zay Flowers? Is Kimani Vidal a clear-cut add? JJ talks about those players -- and more -- on this week's 15 Transactions episode.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.
J J Zacher reefan. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson
in this episode ten thirty five of the Late Round
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Ends December thirty first c terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a fifteen transactions day. Let's get to it,
add Kimani. So, entering week six, we didn't know exactly
how the Chargers were gonna split up their backfield with
a Mari and Hampton sidelined, But we got our answer.
Kamani Vadell was that answer. There were legitimate reports out
(01:12):
there before that game that Hassan Haskins was gonna be
the guy. That's what the report said. But Fidell saw
seventy five percent of the team's running back rushes in
a ten and a half percent target shair. He out
snapped Haskins forty three to twenty, and he looked good.
He scored twenty two point eight PPR points. Apparently, this
is mari and Hampton injury. It's gonna be longer than
(01:32):
a four week injury, which means there could be more
opportunity for Videll in the coming weeks. Now, with that
being said, there's two things I need to point out here.
Number One, the Chargers face the Dolphins. The Dolphins is
now giving up four to twenty plus PPR point performances
to running backs in six games. They are a top
five matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. The
(01:53):
second thing to bring up is the trade rumors. There's
a lot of chatter saying that the Chargers could be
looking to add another running back via trade, and Viidell's
not at the point right now. Where he's irreplaceable. It's
a more volatile situation than we'd like. He's definitely the
top ad this week, though LA's schedule over the next
month it's not too bad and there's always a chance
(02:14):
that they don't go after another running back, that this
is it for them, and if that's the case, they
might ride Videll until Amarion Hampton is back. Add A
Rondez gats in the second. I've talked about ronde Gadson
in the past, but it's worth bringing his name up
once again because Week six was a really big one
for him. He saw season high twenty one percent target
(02:36):
share against the Dolphins. He had a seventy seven percent
route participation rate. He got seven of eight targets for
sixty eight yards. Now, yes, Quentin Johnston was out, we
have to keep that in mind, but Will Disley he
was back. He was active for the first time since
Week two, and despite that, Gatson was still seeing a
lot of looks. It looks like he's grabbed hold of
(02:57):
that receiving role at tight ender during his rookie status.
There's some growth potential there. He's worth having on your bench.
Hold Trayvon Henderson so There's been something on my mind
ever since I published that Mailbag episode last Friday, and
I want to talk about it. Within that episode, a
listener asked how I felt about Trayvon Henderson, and my
(03:20):
answer was pretty long winded. I had first just dug
into the rookie running back class in general, and then
I got into Trayvon Henderson. Now, after that episode was published,
I got some messages from people. They were a little
bit upset about my answer, and after listening back, I
can understand why people were upset. My answer sounded kind
of defensive. I didn't get my message across properly, and
(03:43):
that's one hundred percent on me. I didn't mean to
sound that way, and more importantly, I definitely didn't want
to paint some picture that everything was fine with Trayvon Henderson,
that he was some stellar pick and fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Henderson has been a bust, plain.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
And simple, and he was not something that I should
have outed the way that I touted over the summer.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
I was way too high on him.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Through six games, I haven't seen the guy that I
prospected during the draft process. There hasn't been that much
opportunity for him to show off his pass catching ability,
which is really why I liked him, and I just
hate this new England run game.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
There's not that much creativity.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
But he's also just been bad, Like he's been way
worse in pass pro than a lot of us expected
him to be. But I didn't want you to walk
away from last week's mailbag episode thinking that I thought
everything was totally fine with Trayvon Henderson.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It wasn't.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
It clearly isn't, and it wasn't me just trying to
defend a take or anything like that. I've been wrong,
and I was wrong with the way that I handled
that question, so genuinely, I'm sorry about that. But I
have Trayvon Henderson as a hold right now for two
main reasons. First Off, if you go to social media,
you're gonna find posts from people saying that Henderson's a drop.
(04:52):
I'm not there yet at all. In most twelve team leagues,
you shouldn't be letting go of a second round rookie
running back who at least had a lot of promise
entering the season. It's been six weeks. It sucks that
he's deadweight on your bench. Trust me, I have a
lot of Trayvon Henderson, but there's still two outs for
him to see more work. One of those outs just
(05:12):
being that he can beat his competition, and the other
one is his competition getting injured. And speaking of that competition,
if for Mandre Stevenson were playing out of his mind,
like if he was playing really, really well, then I'd
probably feel different about Trayvon Henderson.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
But Stevenson's not on the season. According to Next Gen.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Stats, Stevenson is an EPA per attempt of minus point
four to eight, not as partially due to his fumbles,
but Henderson is at minus point one. Stevenson's success rate
thirty one percent, Henderson thirty nine percent. Stevenson is a
yards after contact per attempt rate of two point one,
Henderson three point zero, and Stevenson has a worse yards
(05:53):
per carry average. The wild part about this is that
Stevenson's numbers they're buoyed a little bit by that Miami game,
that Miami Dolphins defense that I talked about earlier. In
that contest, Henderson was benched because he had some really
bad pass pro reps. Stevenson in that game saw plus
eighteen rushing yards over expected. He had twenty nine yards
(06:15):
after contact. In all other games, Stevenson has minus thirty
rushing yards over expected and seventy six yards after contact.
Henderson has roughly fifty more yards after contact on ten
fewer rush attempts.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
And of course we.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Know that Stevenson is one fumble away at least we
think he's won fumble away from losing more work.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
This is all to just say the following.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
All right, Henderson has been a bust and again it's
on me for not being clearer on last week's mailbag episode.
It was a mistake for us for me to draft
him where we were drafting him. But despite being out
snapped forty three to nineteen by Stevenson on Sunday, now
is not the time to drop Trayvon Henderson. He's just
someone that has to sit on your bench ad Bam Knight,
(07:02):
so the Cardinals opted to use more Bam Knight in
week six. This backfield is a total nightmare. Knight had
thirty seven snaps against the Colts. Michael Carter was at
thirty two. That's according to PFF. Carter, though ran twenty
one routes. Night was at thirteen. That resulted in the
target split of four to one. In favor of Michael Carter.
(07:23):
So to put that all another way, Carter was more
of the negative game script back and that was emphasized
even more because a Mari de Marcado was injured, Bam
Knight saw a little bit more work on early downs. Now, technically,
if de Marcado were to miss time with his ankle issue,
Carter might be the more attractive fantasy asset to have
in that backfield versus him and Knight. Because the Cardinals
(07:45):
get Green Bay this week before their Week eight. By
then it's a favorable matchup against Dallas and then a
not so favorable one against Seattle.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
All of those opponents, though, could force.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
A negative game script, which means with these current running backs,
that would favor my Carter. But look, guys, Trey Benson's
eventually going to be back, and it's not like this
offense is amazing, So don't go nuts adding Bam Knight.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Just understand that right now he's a real part of
this offense.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Sell Travis kelce Look, guys, I won't lie. I'm nervous
about Travis Kelcey. With Rashie Rice coming back. It's a
small sample size, but last season, during a three game
stretch with Rashi Rice, Kelsey averaged five point zero PPR
points per game. He had a fourteen percent target chair,
and that was in an offense that didn't have an
established Xavier Worthy. Right now, Kelsey's at twelve point zero
(08:38):
PPR points per game and an eighteen point four percent
target chair per game. Those are fine numbers, but they're
not even great numbers without Rashi Rice, but he's coming
off a big performance. Kelsey is with a season high
twenty five percent target chair. Even if the fantasy manager
totally understands that Rashi Rice is coming back, I think
that you can still probably get like a wide receiver
(08:59):
three type for Travis Kelce right now, or maybe package
up Kelsey with another player to upgrade a position in
your starting lineup. At the very least, if Kelsey's on
your team right now, I would at least send some
offers and see what I could get in return, because
I am worried about what this looks like with Rashid
Rice coming back. Add Taja Spears. I wrote this in
(09:22):
the newsletter, but I said trusting anyone in the Titans
offense right now is like trusting a toddler with a
permanent marker. It's not an easy offense to trust, even
with a new head coach. But Tase Spears did out
snap Tony Pollard on Sunday, and that's noteworthy. It's not
something we haven't seen before, but it's a reminder that
when Tennessee is in that trailing game script, they're gonna
(09:44):
opt to use Spears over Pollard, and Tennessee given that offense,
they're gonna be in a lot of negative game scripts.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Pollard played a.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Season worse forty three percent of Tennessee snaps against the Raiders.
Spears hit a season high sixty percent.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Of their snaps. He's only played two games.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Though Spears ran around on sixty four percent of cam
Wore's dropbacks, Pollard was at thirty two percent. That was
also a season low for Pollard. The Titans get the Patriots,
coltson Chargers over their next three games. They're already six
and a half point home underdogs against New England. They're
probably gonna be pretty big dogs against those other teams too,
and if that's the case, that could be more Taj Spears,
(10:22):
So Spears might be usable in a flex spot in
PPR formats. In deeper leagues. But on top of that,
there's some contingent upside. If Tony Pollard gets hurt, then
Spears is gonna see a lot more work ads Sterling
Shepherd and Tez Johnson. I don't know about you guys,
but my teams are getting crushed by injuries right now.
You know, I was high on Amari and Hampton. He's
(10:44):
obviously sidelined for a while. Pouka and Akua, we had
a big scare with him. Hopefully he's gonna be okay.
And then there's a mechag Buka who heard his hamstring
on Sunday. It's been a brutal season for injuries, but
right now mechag Buka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are
all banged up. Mike Evans sounds like he could go
this weekend, but the next two wide receivers up are
Sterling Shepard and Tes Johnson. Now, Shepherd's played ahead of
(11:07):
Johnson this year. He had a seventy percent route share
in all but one game, but Johnson.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Actually ran one more route.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
In Week six against the forty nine ers, and the
Buccaneers just sort of rotated their players around the formation
I've talked about this before, but the Buccaneers just have
like a lot of slot players, but they're not afraid
of using those players on the perimeter either. And because
of this offense, because Baker Mayfield is playing like an MVP,
those guys can thrive. But I think overall, we're probably
(11:33):
gonna see Tes Johnson in the slot a little bit
more than Sterling Shepard. That could be relevant here because
if Mike Evans is back, I would assume two wide
receiver sets are Mike Evans and Sterling Shepard, and that
would give the edge to Shepherd over Johnson off the
waiver wire. But I think both of them are worthy
ads right now because of the injuries to Chris Godwin
and a mechag Buca, and this week they get a
(11:55):
banged up Lions defense by AJ Brown. Look, there's no
doubt that AJ Brown's been a disappointment this year and
the Eagles offense is kind of a hot mess right now.
But look, guys, when things are chaotic, you have an
opportunity to buy now. Look, I definitely don't think that
AJ Brown is some slam dunk trade target right now,
(12:17):
but I think he's someone that a desperate team might
want to go after because for as frustrating as Brown's
been in fantasy this year, I'm not sure perception really
matches reality. He had that Week one game that was
really weird, really strange, Dallas defended him really well, and
he was also coming off an injury. Since that point
in time, he's averaged eight point eight targets per game.
(12:39):
He hasn't fallen below eight targets in a single game
since Week one. His target share, you guys, has been
thirty one point seven percent per game, but he's averaging
just eleven point three p Puro points per game. The
thing is, though, according to PFFS Expected Fantasy Points model,
Brown should be closer to thirteen point nine points per
contest before Monday Night Football because that's when I'm recording this.
(13:02):
That's sixteenth among all wide receivers from Week two through
Week six. Now, the fear with Philadelphia obviously is that
they take this conservative, run heavy approach. But after opening
the season with two straight pass rates that were below
fifty percent in two straight games, they haven't been that
low since Jalen Hurts is averaging thirty two pass temps
per game over his last four. During his first two games,
(13:25):
it was twenty two and a half. And Philly's defense
they're not playing lights out, which is really key here.
And these wide receivers don't have the worst schedule rest
of season. Now, look, maybe you want to wait until
after this Week seven game against Minnesota, because Minnesota's been
really good against wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed.
But after the Vikings they get the Giants, Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, Raiders, Commanders,
(13:49):
and Bills through the rest of the fantasy season. Not
only are some of those just great wide receiver matchups,
but some of those games could feature a lot of scoring.
Sometimes you don't want to wait for that because what
if AJ Brown just has a decent game this weekend,
then all of a sudden, people are gonna have a
different perception of Brown in fantasy. You're not really buying
low at that point. And look, I'm a fan of
(14:11):
Dallas Goddard. I just think it's highly unlikely he's gonna
maintain his target shares that he's been seeing in recent games.
Over his last two he's been at a twenty four
percent and thirty four percent target share. In Week one,
he was at thirty five percent We've never seen him
do that consistently throughout his career.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
So let's just look at this objectively.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
On paper, this is one of the better wide receivers
in the league who's underperformed based on where he's seeing
his targets. He's a regression candidate. He's got a reasonable
rest of season schedule, and the volume has technically already
been there. Meanwhile, you're able to get him at a
decreased cost because of what's going on off the field.
People want nothing to do with this Philadelphia Eagles offense.
(14:52):
So look, if you're like a five to one team
right now, maybe you don't want to.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Take on AJ Brown.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
I get that he's a risky transaction and maybe you
want to wait another week. I understand that too, But
AJ Brown for a team needing that volatility, he does
make some sense. Add Harold Fannin, so David and Joku
has a knee injury. He was banged up throughout that
game against Pittsburgh in Week six, and then he finally
(15:17):
left the game in the fourth quarter, and that allowed
rookie Harold Fannin to reach a career high in row
participation rate at seventy eight percent. He turned ten targets
into seven catches for eighty one yards. And Joku could
miss time with this injury. And the other thing is
he's a trade candidate. He's something that the Browns might
ship off at the trade deadline, and if that's the case,
(15:38):
they're gonna want him to be healthy, so they might
hold him back until after their Week nine by And
if that's the case, Harold Fannin would be very usable
in fantasy football, so he should be rostered in most
twelve team leagues.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Sell Wandell Robinson.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
If someone in your league is buying wandel Robinson after
his Week six outing, I'd be open to trading him away.
I don't think there's anything like super wrong with Robinson.
I have him in some leagues. I think he's fine.
He's a high floor play. Every once in a while,
you'll get what you got last week. And he's actually
seeing the best route chares of his entire career right now.
But we're still talking about a player who's really only
(16:17):
been usable twice this year. One was in that shootout
against the Cowboys, and as we know, Dallas's defense is horrendous,
and in that game, he had a sixteen point seven
average depth of target. That's not something that Wandel Robinson
is gonna see week in and week out. And then
the other usable week was last week that banged up
Eagles defense looked pretty bad against Robinson on his touchdown score,
(16:38):
and also Darius Slayton missed that game. Now, I don't
want to take away those performances from Robinson. I don't
think he's gonna be unusable from here on out. What
I'm saying is is that there's a chance, with Malik
Neighbors out, someone in your league thinks Robinson has been
better than he's actually been just due to recency bias.
His target shaers have been solid, but they were solid
(16:59):
last year two two. He's just unfortunately been stuck in
this role that just yields lower A dots and lower
sealing outcomes. But the big point to make here the
Giants have a really tough upcoming schedule. They get the Broncos, Eagles,
and forty nine Ers over their next three games. Those
are three teams at rank his bottom ten opponents for
wide receivers by justin Fantasy points allowed. So this type
(17:21):
of transaction makes more sense for teams needing points right now,
because I don't know if Wandel Robinson is going to
be able to do that consistently. Add to to two
at Well and Jordan Whittington. So Pukunakua had a real
injury scare in week six, but fortunately it doesn't look
too serious. But there's still a chance and he misses
this weekend's game against Jacksonville, and that game I'm aware
(17:44):
it's being played in London now too to at Well
missed week six, but reports are saying that he's going
to be good to go in week seven. Meanwhile, Jordan
Whittington is the other non DeVante Adams wide receiver there
that we care about, So if Nakua misses time, both
Whittington and at Well are gonna get more run. Atwell's
probably the choice here is like a one week rental type.
(18:06):
We've seen him make splash plays in the past. We
know that he can get down the field. Just don't
ignore Whittington. Given Atwell's coming off that injury, one of them,
if not both, have a chance to be relevant this week.
Jacksonville has been a top ten matchup for wide receivers
this year by justin Fantasy points allowed hold justin fields
(18:27):
according to next Gen stats. The only game this season
where a quarterback had a worse EPA per dropback than
Justin Fields had against the Broncos in Week six was
when Jake Browning faced the Vikings. Remember that game, Yeah,
that's how bad Justin Field's performance was against Denver. Now,
we talked about Justin Fields potentially sing the b on
last week's Late Round Fantasy Football show, but I did
(18:49):
not expect this. I didn't expect him to get sacked
nine times and only throw the ball forty five yards.
It was an awful performance. Now, so far this year,
or recording to my numbers, the Jets quarterbacks have faced
the easiest schedule among all teams. When he's been in
a relatively plus matchup, though he's dominated, He's averaging twenty
(19:10):
seven and a half points per game in plus matchups.
And the thing is things don't really get worse for
Fields from here on out. He has two decent matchups
upcoming when he faces the Panthers and Bengals, and according
to my Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers, New York quarterbacks
have the six best rest of season schedule and the
fifth best fantasy playoffs schedule. The biggest risk for Fields
is that he loses his job. That's why he's not
(19:32):
a clear cut by. But to be fair, Aaron Glenn
didn't seem interested in that idea when he was asked
if Fields was going to benched in Week seven. So
at least in the short term, Field should be starting.
This is all to say, don't drop Justin Fields. After
that horrible, horrible Week six game by Zay Flowers, it
(19:53):
hasn't been that great for Jay Flowers since his big
Week one performance. He scored twenty eight PPERO points that
week against the Bills. Since then, he's averages ten point
seven PPERO points per game. Now, admittedly I had some
fear with Flowers entering the season. He looked like more
of a floor play than a ceiling play because we
figured Baltimore would be a relatively run heavy team and
Flowers has never been a big touchdown scorer, and that's
(20:15):
based on his profile and his usage. Now, with that
being said, we're at a pretty low point right now.
He's not producing, and Lamar Jackson's status is up in
the air, and the Ravens are also entering their by
and it's during a time when fantasy managers are really
struggling with injuries.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
They need players to produce right now.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So what if just hear me out here, what if
Lamar Jackson is back in Week eight and that seems
more probable than possible at this point. And what if
his Baltimore defense just keeps playing the way they're playing
on the ear Baltimore's fourth worse than the NFL and
EPA per pass allowed.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
They're second worst and EPA per rush allowed. That could
force this.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Ravens team to be a little bit more pass friendly,
give us a little bit more passing volume. That's with
a healthy Lamar Jackson, and considering flowers thirty percent target share,
that could mean a whole lot of volume for him.
Baltimore's got the twelfth best wide receiver schedule rest of season,
It's fifth best in the fantasy playoffs. So I think
right now this is the time to buy Zay Flowers
(21:18):
add Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco was impressively competent against the
Packers in Week six, so much so that at Corning
Next Gen Stats, he posts the highest EPA per dropback
of any Bengals quarterback in a single game this year.
The same goes for completion percentage over expected, So if
any of you were looking for a streamer, Flacco might
work against Pittsburgh this week. Pittsburgh's secondary looks a little
(21:39):
bit healthier than it was earlier in the year, but
they've still allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to
quarterbacks this year, and if Flacco looks good there, the
Bengals get the Jets, Bears, Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins,
and Cardinals to end the fantasy season. Only Buffalo ranks
as a tough opponent for them by justin fantasy points allowed.
My numbers have Joe Flacco and the Bengals quarterbacks having
(22:02):
the best scheduled rest of season in most leagues. You
don't have to go crazy for Flacco, but it wouldn't
surprise me if we get some usability from him. Add
the Cleveland Browns defense. Cleveland had a pretty disappointing Week
six defensively, but they're back at home this week and
they're taking on the Dolphins. This game has a sub
forty point total. Cleveland's a slight favorite, and Miami's been
(22:25):
a slightly above average matchup for defense this year by
justin fantasy points allowed, so I have a quick bonus
transaction for you based on what happened on Monday night,
and it's to add Luther Burden. We were hoping for
the post by rookie bump for Luther Burden, and we
kind of got it. Burden's season high end route share
(22:47):
entering week six was thirty one percent. That came in
week three against Washington it was forty one percent, and
that's according to initial PFF data. His previous high was
eleven percent target share. A Monday night it rose to
fourteen percent. He had four catches for fifty one yards.
By now, all of you guys know that the ZAP
(23:08):
model really liked Luther Burden. At this point, things are
trending in the right direction, so he should find himself
on your bench.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere.
Podcast can be found infort to follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Thanks for listening everyone.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the Weekly
ten Trends episode.
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.
J J Zacher reefan. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson
in this episode ten thirty five of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
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Eligibility is supplied.
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Ends December thirty first c terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a fifteen transactions day. Let's get to it,
add Kimani. So, entering week six, we didn't know exactly
how the Chargers were gonna split up their backfield with
a Mari and Hampton sidelined, But we got our answer.
Kamani Vadell was that answer. There were legitimate reports out
(01:12):
there before that game that Hassan Haskins was gonna be
the guy. That's what the report said. But Fidell saw
seventy five percent of the team's running back rushes in
a ten and a half percent target shair. He out
snapped Haskins forty three to twenty, and he looked good.
He scored twenty two point eight PPR points. Apparently, this
is mari and Hampton injury. It's gonna be longer than
(01:32):
a four week injury, which means there could be more
opportunity for Videll in the coming weeks. Now, with that
being said, there's two things I need to point out here.
Number One, the Chargers face the Dolphins. The Dolphins is
now giving up four to twenty plus PPR point performances
to running backs in six games. They are a top
five matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. The
(01:53):
second thing to bring up is the trade rumors. There's
a lot of chatter saying that the Chargers could be
looking to add another running back via trade, and Viidell's
not at the point right now. Where he's irreplaceable. It's
a more volatile situation than we'd like. He's definitely the
top ad this week, though LA's schedule over the next
month it's not too bad and there's always a chance
(02:14):
that they don't go after another running back, that this
is it for them, and if that's the case, they
might ride Videll until Amarion Hampton is back. Add A
Rondez gats in the second. I've talked about ronde Gadson
in the past, but it's worth bringing his name up
once again because Week six was a really big one
for him. He saw season high twenty one percent target
(02:36):
share against the Dolphins. He had a seventy seven percent
route participation rate. He got seven of eight targets for
sixty eight yards. Now, yes, Quentin Johnston was out, we
have to keep that in mind, but Will Disley he
was back. He was active for the first time since
Week two, and despite that, Gatson was still seeing a
lot of looks. It looks like he's grabbed hold of
(02:57):
that receiving role at tight ender during his rookie status.
There's some growth potential there. He's worth having on your bench.
Hold Trayvon Henderson so There's been something on my mind
ever since I published that Mailbag episode last Friday, and
I want to talk about it. Within that episode, a
listener asked how I felt about Trayvon Henderson, and my
(03:20):
answer was pretty long winded. I had first just dug
into the rookie running back class in general, and then
I got into Trayvon Henderson. Now, after that episode was published,
I got some messages from people. They were a little
bit upset about my answer, and after listening back, I
can understand why people were upset. My answer sounded kind
of defensive. I didn't get my message across properly, and
(03:43):
that's one hundred percent on me. I didn't mean to
sound that way, and more importantly, I definitely didn't want
to paint some picture that everything was fine with Trayvon Henderson,
that he was some stellar pick and fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Henderson has been a bust, plain.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
And simple, and he was not something that I should
have outed the way that I touted over the summer.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
I was way too high on him.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Through six games, I haven't seen the guy that I
prospected during the draft process. There hasn't been that much
opportunity for him to show off his pass catching ability,
which is really why I liked him, and I just
hate this new England run game.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
There's not that much creativity.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
But he's also just been bad, Like he's been way
worse in pass pro than a lot of us expected
him to be. But I didn't want you to walk
away from last week's mailbag episode thinking that I thought
everything was totally fine with Trayvon Henderson.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It wasn't.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
It clearly isn't, and it wasn't me just trying to
defend a take or anything like that. I've been wrong,
and I was wrong with the way that I handled
that question, so genuinely, I'm sorry about that. But I
have Trayvon Henderson as a hold right now for two
main reasons. First Off, if you go to social media,
you're gonna find posts from people saying that Henderson's a drop.
(04:52):
I'm not there yet at all. In most twelve team leagues,
you shouldn't be letting go of a second round rookie
running back who at least had a lot of promise
entering the season. It's been six weeks. It sucks that
he's deadweight on your bench. Trust me, I have a
lot of Trayvon Henderson, but there's still two outs for
him to see more work. One of those outs just
(05:12):
being that he can beat his competition, and the other
one is his competition getting injured. And speaking of that competition,
if for Mandre Stevenson were playing out of his mind,
like if he was playing really, really well, then I'd
probably feel different about Trayvon Henderson.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
But Stevenson's not on the season. According to Next Gen.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Stats, Stevenson is an EPA per attempt of minus point
four to eight, not as partially due to his fumbles,
but Henderson is at minus point one. Stevenson's success rate
thirty one percent, Henderson thirty nine percent. Stevenson is a
yards after contact per attempt rate of two point one,
Henderson three point zero, and Stevenson has a worse yards
(05:53):
per carry average. The wild part about this is that
Stevenson's numbers they're buoyed a little bit by that Miami game,
that Miami Dolphins defense that I talked about earlier. In
that contest, Henderson was benched because he had some really
bad pass pro reps. Stevenson in that game saw plus
eighteen rushing yards over expected. He had twenty nine yards
(06:15):
after contact. In all other games, Stevenson has minus thirty
rushing yards over expected and seventy six yards after contact.
Henderson has roughly fifty more yards after contact on ten
fewer rush attempts.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
And of course we.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Know that Stevenson is one fumble away at least we
think he's won fumble away from losing more work.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
This is all to just say the following.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
All right, Henderson has been a bust and again it's
on me for not being clearer on last week's mailbag episode.
It was a mistake for us for me to draft
him where we were drafting him. But despite being out
snapped forty three to nineteen by Stevenson on Sunday, now
is not the time to drop Trayvon Henderson. He's just
someone that has to sit on your bench ad Bam Knight,
(07:02):
so the Cardinals opted to use more Bam Knight in
week six. This backfield is a total nightmare. Knight had
thirty seven snaps against the Colts. Michael Carter was at
thirty two. That's according to PFF. Carter, though ran twenty
one routes. Night was at thirteen. That resulted in the
target split of four to one. In favor of Michael Carter.
(07:23):
So to put that all another way, Carter was more
of the negative game script back and that was emphasized
even more because a Mari de Marcado was injured, Bam
Knight saw a little bit more work on early downs. Now, technically,
if de Marcado were to miss time with his ankle issue,
Carter might be the more attractive fantasy asset to have
in that backfield versus him and Knight. Because the Cardinals
(07:45):
get Green Bay this week before their Week eight. By
then it's a favorable matchup against Dallas and then a
not so favorable one against Seattle.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
All of those opponents, though, could force.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
A negative game script, which means with these current running backs,
that would favor my Carter. But look, guys, Trey Benson's
eventually going to be back, and it's not like this
offense is amazing, So don't go nuts adding Bam Knight.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Just understand that right now he's a real part of
this offense.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Sell Travis kelce Look, guys, I won't lie. I'm nervous
about Travis Kelcey. With Rashie Rice coming back. It's a
small sample size, but last season, during a three game
stretch with Rashi Rice, Kelsey averaged five point zero PPR
points per game. He had a fourteen percent target chair,
and that was in an offense that didn't have an
established Xavier Worthy. Right now, Kelsey's at twelve point zero
(08:38):
PPR points per game and an eighteen point four percent
target chair per game. Those are fine numbers, but they're
not even great numbers without Rashi Rice, but he's coming
off a big performance. Kelsey is with a season high
twenty five percent target chair. Even if the fantasy manager
totally understands that Rashi Rice is coming back, I think
that you can still probably get like a wide receiver
(08:59):
three type for Travis Kelce right now, or maybe package
up Kelsey with another player to upgrade a position in
your starting lineup. At the very least, if Kelsey's on
your team right now, I would at least send some
offers and see what I could get in return, because
I am worried about what this looks like with Rashid
Rice coming back. Add Taja Spears. I wrote this in
(09:22):
the newsletter, but I said trusting anyone in the Titans
offense right now is like trusting a toddler with a
permanent marker. It's not an easy offense to trust, even
with a new head coach. But Tase Spears did out
snap Tony Pollard on Sunday, and that's noteworthy. It's not
something we haven't seen before, but it's a reminder that
when Tennessee is in that trailing game script, they're gonna
(09:44):
opt to use Spears over Pollard, and Tennessee given that offense,
they're gonna be in a lot of negative game scripts.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Pollard played a.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Season worse forty three percent of Tennessee snaps against the Raiders.
Spears hit a season high sixty percent.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Of their snaps. He's only played two games.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Though Spears ran around on sixty four percent of cam
Wore's dropbacks, Pollard was at thirty two percent. That was
also a season low for Pollard. The Titans get the Patriots,
coltson Chargers over their next three games. They're already six
and a half point home underdogs against New England. They're
probably gonna be pretty big dogs against those other teams too,
and if that's the case, that could be more Taj Spears,
(10:22):
So Spears might be usable in a flex spot in
PPR formats. In deeper leagues. But on top of that,
there's some contingent upside. If Tony Pollard gets hurt, then
Spears is gonna see a lot more work ads Sterling
Shepherd and Tez Johnson. I don't know about you guys,
but my teams are getting crushed by injuries right now.
You know, I was high on Amari and Hampton. He's
(10:44):
obviously sidelined for a while. Pouka and Akua, we had
a big scare with him. Hopefully he's gonna be okay.
And then there's a mechag Buka who heard his hamstring
on Sunday. It's been a brutal season for injuries, but
right now mechag Buka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are
all banged up. Mike Evans sounds like he could go
this weekend, but the next two wide receivers up are
Sterling Shepard and Tes Johnson. Now, Shepherd's played ahead of
(11:07):
Johnson this year. He had a seventy percent route share
in all but one game, but Johnson.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Actually ran one more route.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
In Week six against the forty nine ers, and the
Buccaneers just sort of rotated their players around the formation
I've talked about this before, but the Buccaneers just have
like a lot of slot players, but they're not afraid
of using those players on the perimeter either. And because
of this offense, because Baker Mayfield is playing like an MVP,
those guys can thrive. But I think overall, we're probably
(11:33):
gonna see Tes Johnson in the slot a little bit
more than Sterling Shepard. That could be relevant here because
if Mike Evans is back, I would assume two wide
receiver sets are Mike Evans and Sterling Shepard, and that
would give the edge to Shepherd over Johnson off the
waiver wire. But I think both of them are worthy
ads right now because of the injuries to Chris Godwin
and a mechag Buca, and this week they get a
(11:55):
banged up Lions defense by AJ Brown. Look, there's no
doubt that AJ Brown's been a disappointment this year and
the Eagles offense is kind of a hot mess right now.
But look, guys, when things are chaotic, you have an
opportunity to buy now. Look, I definitely don't think that
AJ Brown is some slam dunk trade target right now,
(12:17):
but I think he's someone that a desperate team might
want to go after because for as frustrating as Brown's
been in fantasy this year, I'm not sure perception really
matches reality. He had that Week one game that was
really weird, really strange, Dallas defended him really well, and
he was also coming off an injury. Since that point
in time, he's averaged eight point eight targets per game.
(12:39):
He hasn't fallen below eight targets in a single game
since Week one. His target share, you guys, has been
thirty one point seven percent per game, but he's averaging
just eleven point three p Puro points per game. The
thing is, though, according to PFFS Expected Fantasy Points model,
Brown should be closer to thirteen point nine points per
contest before Monday Night Football because that's when I'm recording this.
(13:02):
That's sixteenth among all wide receivers from Week two through
Week six. Now, the fear with Philadelphia obviously is that
they take this conservative, run heavy approach. But after opening
the season with two straight pass rates that were below
fifty percent in two straight games, they haven't been that
low since Jalen Hurts is averaging thirty two pass temps
per game over his last four. During his first two games,
(13:25):
it was twenty two and a half. And Philly's defense
they're not playing lights out, which is really key here.
And these wide receivers don't have the worst schedule rest
of season. Now, look, maybe you want to wait until
after this Week seven game against Minnesota, because Minnesota's been
really good against wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed.
But after the Vikings they get the Giants, Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, Raiders, Commanders,
(13:49):
and Bills through the rest of the fantasy season. Not
only are some of those just great wide receiver matchups,
but some of those games could feature a lot of scoring.
Sometimes you don't want to wait for that because what
if AJ Brown just has a decent game this weekend,
then all of a sudden, people are gonna have a
different perception of Brown in fantasy. You're not really buying
low at that point. And look, I'm a fan of
(14:11):
Dallas Goddard. I just think it's highly unlikely he's gonna
maintain his target shares that he's been seeing in recent games.
Over his last two he's been at a twenty four
percent and thirty four percent target share. In Week one,
he was at thirty five percent We've never seen him
do that consistently throughout his career.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
So let's just look at this objectively.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
On paper, this is one of the better wide receivers
in the league who's underperformed based on where he's seeing
his targets. He's a regression candidate. He's got a reasonable
rest of season schedule, and the volume has technically already
been there. Meanwhile, you're able to get him at a
decreased cost because of what's going on off the field.
People want nothing to do with this Philadelphia Eagles offense.
(14:52):
So look, if you're like a five to one team
right now, maybe you don't want to.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Take on AJ Brown.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
I get that he's a risky transaction and maybe you
want to wait another week. I understand that too, But
AJ Brown for a team needing that volatility, he does
make some sense. Add Harold Fannin, so David and Joku
has a knee injury. He was banged up throughout that
game against Pittsburgh in Week six, and then he finally
(15:17):
left the game in the fourth quarter, and that allowed
rookie Harold Fannin to reach a career high in row
participation rate at seventy eight percent. He turned ten targets
into seven catches for eighty one yards. And Joku could
miss time with this injury. And the other thing is
he's a trade candidate. He's something that the Browns might
ship off at the trade deadline, and if that's the case,
(15:38):
they're gonna want him to be healthy, so they might
hold him back until after their Week nine by And
if that's the case, Harold Fannin would be very usable
in fantasy football, so he should be rostered in most
twelve team leagues.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Sell Wandell Robinson.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
If someone in your league is buying wandel Robinson after
his Week six outing, I'd be open to trading him away.
I don't think there's anything like super wrong with Robinson.
I have him in some leagues. I think he's fine.
He's a high floor play. Every once in a while,
you'll get what you got last week. And he's actually
seeing the best route chares of his entire career right now.
But we're still talking about a player who's really only
(16:17):
been usable twice this year. One was in that shootout
against the Cowboys, and as we know, Dallas's defense is horrendous,
and in that game, he had a sixteen point seven
average depth of target. That's not something that Wandel Robinson
is gonna see week in and week out. And then
the other usable week was last week that banged up
Eagles defense looked pretty bad against Robinson on his touchdown score,
(16:38):
and also Darius Slayton missed that game. Now, I don't
want to take away those performances from Robinson. I don't
think he's gonna be unusable from here on out. What
I'm saying is is that there's a chance, with Malik
Neighbors out, someone in your league thinks Robinson has been
better than he's actually been just due to recency bias.
His target shaers have been solid, but they were solid
(16:59):
last year two two. He's just unfortunately been stuck in
this role that just yields lower A dots and lower
sealing outcomes. But the big point to make here the
Giants have a really tough upcoming schedule. They get the Broncos, Eagles,
and forty nine Ers over their next three games. Those
are three teams at rank his bottom ten opponents for
wide receivers by justin Fantasy points allowed. So this type
(17:21):
of transaction makes more sense for teams needing points right now,
because I don't know if Wandel Robinson is going to
be able to do that consistently. Add to to two
at Well and Jordan Whittington. So Pukunakua had a real
injury scare in week six, but fortunately it doesn't look
too serious. But there's still a chance and he misses
this weekend's game against Jacksonville, and that game I'm aware
(17:44):
it's being played in London now too to at Well
missed week six, but reports are saying that he's going
to be good to go in week seven. Meanwhile, Jordan
Whittington is the other non DeVante Adams wide receiver there
that we care about, So if Nakua misses time, both
Whittington and at Well are gonna get more run. Atwell's
probably the choice here is like a one week rental type.
(18:06):
We've seen him make splash plays in the past. We
know that he can get down the field. Just don't
ignore Whittington. Given Atwell's coming off that injury, one of them,
if not both, have a chance to be relevant this week.
Jacksonville has been a top ten matchup for wide receivers
this year by justin Fantasy points allowed hold justin fields
(18:27):
according to next Gen stats. The only game this season
where a quarterback had a worse EPA per dropback than
Justin Fields had against the Broncos in Week six was
when Jake Browning faced the Vikings. Remember that game, Yeah,
that's how bad Justin Field's performance was against Denver. Now,
we talked about Justin Fields potentially sing the b on
last week's Late Round Fantasy Football show, but I did
(18:49):
not expect this. I didn't expect him to get sacked
nine times and only throw the ball forty five yards.
It was an awful performance. Now, so far this year,
or recording to my numbers, the Jets quarterbacks have faced
the easiest schedule among all teams. When he's been in
a relatively plus matchup, though he's dominated, He's averaging twenty
(19:10):
seven and a half points per game in plus matchups.
And the thing is things don't really get worse for
Fields from here on out. He has two decent matchups
upcoming when he faces the Panthers and Bengals, and according
to my Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers, New York quarterbacks
have the six best rest of season schedule and the
fifth best fantasy playoffs schedule. The biggest risk for Fields
is that he loses his job. That's why he's not
(19:32):
a clear cut by. But to be fair, Aaron Glenn
didn't seem interested in that idea when he was asked
if Fields was going to benched in Week seven. So
at least in the short term, Field should be starting.
This is all to say, don't drop Justin Fields. After
that horrible, horrible Week six game by Zay Flowers, it
(19:53):
hasn't been that great for Jay Flowers since his big
Week one performance. He scored twenty eight PPERO points that
week against the Bills. Since then, he's averages ten point
seven PPERO points per game. Now, admittedly I had some
fear with Flowers entering the season. He looked like more
of a floor play than a ceiling play because we
figured Baltimore would be a relatively run heavy team and
Flowers has never been a big touchdown scorer, and that's
(20:15):
based on his profile and his usage. Now, with that
being said, we're at a pretty low point right now.
He's not producing, and Lamar Jackson's status is up in
the air, and the Ravens are also entering their by
and it's during a time when fantasy managers are really
struggling with injuries.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
They need players to produce right now.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So what if just hear me out here, what if
Lamar Jackson is back in Week eight and that seems
more probable than possible at this point. And what if
his Baltimore defense just keeps playing the way they're playing
on the ear Baltimore's fourth worse than the NFL and
EPA per pass allowed.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
They're second worst and EPA per rush allowed. That could
force this.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Ravens team to be a little bit more pass friendly,
give us a little bit more passing volume. That's with
a healthy Lamar Jackson, and considering flowers thirty percent target share,
that could mean a whole lot of volume for him.
Baltimore's got the twelfth best wide receiver schedule rest of season,
It's fifth best in the fantasy playoffs. So I think
right now this is the time to buy Zay Flowers
(21:18):
add Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco was impressively competent against the
Packers in Week six, so much so that at Corning
Next Gen Stats, he posts the highest EPA per dropback
of any Bengals quarterback in a single game this year.
The same goes for completion percentage over expected, So if
any of you were looking for a streamer, Flacco might
work against Pittsburgh this week. Pittsburgh's secondary looks a little
(21:39):
bit healthier than it was earlier in the year, but
they've still allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to
quarterbacks this year, and if Flacco looks good there, the
Bengals get the Jets, Bears, Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins,
and Cardinals to end the fantasy season. Only Buffalo ranks
as a tough opponent for them by justin fantasy points allowed.
My numbers have Joe Flacco and the Bengals quarterbacks having
(22:02):
the best scheduled rest of season in most leagues. You
don't have to go crazy for Flacco, but it wouldn't
surprise me if we get some usability from him. Add
the Cleveland Browns defense. Cleveland had a pretty disappointing Week
six defensively, but they're back at home this week and
they're taking on the Dolphins. This game has a sub
forty point total. Cleveland's a slight favorite, and Miami's been
(22:25):
a slightly above average matchup for defense this year by
justin fantasy points allowed, so I have a quick bonus
transaction for you based on what happened on Monday night,
and it's to add Luther Burden. We were hoping for
the post by rookie bump for Luther Burden, and we
kind of got it. Burden's season high end route share
(22:47):
entering week six was thirty one percent. That came in
week three against Washington it was forty one percent, and
that's according to initial PFF data. His previous high was
eleven percent target share. A Monday night it rose to
fourteen percent. He had four catches for fifty one yards.
By now, all of you guys know that the ZAP
(23:08):
model really liked Luther Burden. At this point, things are
trending in the right direction, so he should find himself
on your bench.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere.
Podcast can be found infort to follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Thanks for listening everyone.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the Weekly
ten Trends episode.
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