October 17, 2025 • 19 mins
Should we be putting Rashee Rice in our lineups without hesitation this week? Is Travis Etienne's job in jeopardy? Why is no one talking about Jerry Jeudy's 13-target game in Week 6? Those questions -- and more -- are answered on this week's mailbag episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha.
JJ Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten thirty eight of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in.
(00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes, with the first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The Crown is yours. Gambling promo called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven seven eight Hope n Why
(00:44):
in Connecticut called eighty to eight seven eight nine seven
seven seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibility restrictions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first rush this week is from Twitter.
It's from at Webb's gems FFL. It says, what type
(01:04):
of process do you use for a player like Rashi
Rice coming off injury and now suspension. In terms of
when to slot them into your lineup, do you need
to sample size or do players of this caliber warn't
immediate play in fantasy. So I got a couple questions
about Rice this week. I'll just throw some thoughts out there.
I can't imagine anyone with Rashi Rice has like two
(01:26):
or three better options than him this week. Genuinely, wide
receivers just really weak across the board this season. They're
like ten to fifteen wide receivers that we actually feel
good about each and every week, and there's just the rest,
Like sure we like Chris Olave more than we like
DJ Moore. I'm just saying from a true difference maker's perspective,
there aren't many wide receivers and guys Rashi Rice has
(01:50):
a legit chance to be a true difference maker. This
isn't a borderline talent and a borderline situation type of play.
This is a good player who plays a great roll
in an offense that has an elite quarterback. Fire upper
she Rice and enjoy the ride. This last question is
also from twitters from at Urban Lab. It says thirteen
(02:13):
targets for Jerry Judy. That's gotta warrant some analysis. Okay,
let's do some analysis. Jerry Judy had thirteen targets against
the Steelers. It still was just a twenty five point
five percent target share though, and I say just because
you'd expect to hire target share with thirteen targets. But
the reason it wasn't higher is because Cleveland threw the
ball a ton against the Steelers. Dylan Gabriel finished that
(02:37):
game with fifty two pass attempts. The week prior to
his debut, he was at thirty three and a much
more neutral game script. To me, Judy only scoring nine
point three p Piero points in an ideal game environment
is pretty telling about him and this situation in general,
Like that was without Cedric Tillman and with a banged
(02:57):
up David and Joku. According to next Gens stats, his
catch rate over expected, which is just telling the story
more than anything else. I'm gonna be talking about these
types of metrics in just a second later in the show,
but his catch trade over expected was minus twenty one
percent in that game. PFF had his catchable targets at
sixty two percent. Like on paper, sure we would love
(03:19):
this kind of usage in a different environment, no doubt,
but Judy has topped out at eleven point six p
per points this season. That was in Week one. He's
still not producing much without Cedric Tillman in the lineup. Now.
I think he's fine this week given the matchup, although
watch the weather in that game. But I don't think
we're gonna see consistent production from Jerry Judy this year,
(03:41):
despite the fact that once again he leads the NFL
in routes run. It's just that, as the kids would say,
the offensive environment is cheeks, right, Did I get that right? Look? Man,
I'm a millennial. I'm starting to get old. But Jerry
Judy is not a good enough player to overcome this situation.
(04:01):
This last question is from Patreon. It's from Rick. It
says thoughts on the running back situation in both Jacksonville
with Etn and Tutin and Houston with Chubb and Marx.
ETN seemed to maybe slowed down and big week for
Marx after the weird one versus Baltimore. I think what's
important with these situations is to follow usage over production.
(04:21):
Production obviously matters, and good production can clearly lead to
more work I mean, look at the discussion happening right
now in Carolina after Rico o'dowdle's got nuts over the
last two weeks. But usage is gonna be more telling
than actual production. Like, for instance, you're saying that Etn
seemed to maybe slow down, but really all that's been
(04:42):
happening is some regression on the production side. This is
why I was talking about him a couple of weeks
ago as a cell candidate. He wasn't gonna maintain his
six yards per carry average while scoring a touchdown every
single game. But there's gonna be more signal for us
as fantasy players when we look at usage unless a
player just playing like egregiously bad or egregiously worse than
(05:03):
his backup, and that's not the case for Etn. What's
funny is that over the last two weeks, when he
hasn't been performing that well, Etn has actually seen his
best running back rush are and target share combos of
the season. From weeks one through four, his target share
per game rate was just seven point four percent over
his last two It's been fourteen percent weeks one to four.
(05:24):
His running back rush share sixty nine percent per game
over his last two, it's been close to seventy eight percent.
And then meanwhile, his snapshare has basically been the same
throughout the thing that change really is just some regression
combined with tougher matchups. Now, I'm still holding Tutin because
I liked him as a prospect and at the very least,
(05:44):
he's a high end handcuff. This is an attractive rushing offense,
and I'm still holding out hope that Etn gives some
of his workaway as the season progresses, But it's clear
right now today Touton's just a stash. Meanwhile, wood He
Marx actually has some usability. I talked about this on
the Sleeper Show yesterday. In a different game script, things
(06:06):
would likely look a little bit different. But again, a
lot of people seem to be looking at that game
before the bye and getting concerned about Woody Marx because
Nick Chubb outproduced him. And yes, of course we'd rather
see Woody Marx outproduce Nick Chubb, but there can be
instances where Nick Chubb outproduces Woody marks. It doesn't mean
that Chubb is a better running back. It's just that
(06:27):
sometimes that's due to matchup. Sometimes things really clicked for
that running back in that game, and despite that game
script against Baltimore being the way that it was, Marx
still had a better snap share than Nick Chubb, and
Chubb's only running routes on like twenty five to thirty
percent of Houston's dropbacks. Right now, I think what's gonna
be really important for fantasy managers, like if you have
(06:49):
Woody Marx, is to not attribute some spike in Woody
Marx's production this week to some post buy bump, because
if that happens, if Woody Marx is a better game,
it's I'm more than likely gonna have something to do
with game script or just having a better game in general.
I also don't think Marks is gonna be like a
full blown bell cow in that offense. That's not how
(07:09):
I viewed him as a prospect. He's someone that I
like because we want receiving work with our running backs,
and if he can find like a fifty percent sixty
percent running back rush share in that offense to go
along with that receiving work, he could be an RB
two in fantasy. Just because Nick Chubb is getting some
work doesn't mean that it's all over for what he Marks.
Keep that in mind too. This ask question is also
(07:33):
from Patreon, is from ap twenty three. It says, Hi, JJ,
what do you think of Darnell Mooney? His rest of
season ranking makes heaps of sense? But is the risk
reward of holding attractive enough to keep taking a five
bench spot for a team that doesn't need to win? Now? Yeah,
you know, I like Darnell Mooney entering the season. I
thought he was a good pick in the double digit rounds.
(07:55):
He just hasn't been healthy period. I was gonna mention
him on the Sleeper Show, but I just didn't have
nearly enough information about his health at that point. But
it does seem at least possible that he plays this weekend,
and he should be rostered in way more than like
the thirty percent of leagues that he's rostered in. The
only reason he's not rostered in more leagues right now
is his health. And yeah, maybe that hurts him rest
(08:17):
of season. Maybe he won't be fully healthy. But I've
said this before. Mooney's played in two full games this year,
and one of them he ran around one hundred percent
of Michael Pennick's dropbacks he had a nineteen percent target share,
and the other one he had a twenty seven percent
target chair. He had eleven targets. It just so happens
that in those two games, Atlanta's passing attack really wasn't
(08:38):
moving the ball. The Falcons desperately need him too. Last week,
Drake London was the only Falcons wide receiver with a catch.
He had a fifty two percent target share. But Mooney
finished twenty twenty four with a ton of deep ball looks,
an ad out of twelve point eight yards and a
thirty three percent air yard share. He had a really
solid one point eighty eight yards per out run rate.
(09:00):
I mean, Darnell Mooney was good last year, and with
wide receiver just not being a very strong position in
fantasy football right now, I don't see why people wouldn't
want to take a chance with Darnell Mooney now. Look,
I felt similarly about Juwan Jennings last week and look
at how that turned out. But I think this is
the right way to approach this game. I don't want
injuries to just make me completely forget who these players are,
(09:21):
because yes, it can go south. Like we saw with
Juwan Jennings, he was way more banged up than I
initially thought I would have never recommended Juwan Jennings as
a bye had I known that everything in his body
was broken. I mean, not really, but you get what
I'm saying. But the question have to ask is what
if this player is actually healthy? What if Darnell Mooney
is actually okay? Then I think that he can be
(09:43):
a viable option in fantasy football. He's at least someone
who should be rostered. This last question from Patreon is
from Taylor. It says, if you have a strong team
in record, how much important slash weight do you assign
to securing a first round by in your decision making.
For example, I am in the interesting situation where I
(10:03):
have a six and zero team, but I've been hit
with impactful injuries Hampton and now Agbuka in recent weeks. Yeah,
I totally feel that I'm also facing a four and
two team than the two other five and one teams
and weeks eight through ten, And in addition to my injuries,
I will also be at a disadvantage from a bye
week perspective in two of those matchups. I'm weighing if
(10:24):
I need to make a trade to put myself in
a better spot for these matchups that have large bye
week implications versus standing pat and aiming to optimize my
roster for the playoff weeks. Curious your thoughts on how
aggressive you get in terms of going for the buye. Thanks, So,
you're probably not gonna want to hear this because it
makes your life a lot more difficult. But bye weeks
(10:44):
are hugely important and hugely underrated in fantasy football. I
know we, myself included other fantasy analysts. We often say
just get into the playoffs and let variants take the wheel.
Now that's true to a degree for sure, but realistically,
having a bye is a really big deal. Just think
about it. Statistically, Let's assume you have a fifty to
(11:06):
fifty shot to win each matchup. If you have two
games to win, that means you have a twenty five
percent chance of winning both games of winning the championship.
If you have three games to win, that chance is
twelve point five percent. So when you have a buye
with that one game that you don't have to play,
you double your title lots. Now. I've had many situations
(11:29):
in my fantasy football career where one reason or another,
sometimes reasons out of my control, like stupid league structures.
I didn't get a bye when I probably should have
gotten a buy. Like there's a situation last year where
I didn't get a bye even though I had the
second best record in the league. It's because there were divisions,
and then my team lost in the first round of
the playoffs, and then obviously, obviously the team goes off
(11:52):
in the final two weeks and it's really frustrating. But
in those situations, you really realize how important that bye
week is. But look, don't go crazy and don't be
suboptimal in your trading. Like I don't think you should
just trade away at Mechaic Buca and sell them low
just because you want to get that buy. But I
think it's good to have that in mind. I think
(12:13):
it's important to know the importance of that bye week.
The last question this week is an email that says, hey, JJ,
can you talk about rushing yards over expectations and how
reliable or useful it is when guys like Chase Brown
or the Patriots running backs are at the bottom? Is
it as useful when they're run blocking? Isn't the best?
(12:34):
Is it more of an indication on which side of
a backfield pairing is better. Thanks Andrew So for the record,
I'm recording this before Thursday Night's game. That's related to
Chase Brown being in this question, even though my answer
literally has nothing to do with him. I've said it
before on the show, but I think most running back
metrics are kind of iffy because running back is dependent
(12:56):
on more factors than other positions are. I mean, even
wide receiver metrics like yards per route run. Anyone selling
those metrics as perfect, they're fooling you. They're just a
piece of the puzzle because we know there's predictive value
to them, or like first downs per oute run, whatever
metric that you want to use that objectively has some
predictive value. There are so many different running back metrics
(13:19):
out there these days, so it's not easy to just
test and see which ones are most predictive. But a
lot of them are just descriptive, at least for fantasy purposes,
meaning they tell you a story about how something went down,
not how something is about to go down. Not only that,
but some metrics are measured differently. I realized after the fact,
(13:40):
but on Tuesday's fifteen Transaction show, when I talked about
Ramandre Stevenson, I realized that people could just go to
PFF and see totally different numbers than the ones that
I talked about because I use next Gen Stats, That's
where I pulled my data from. I wasn't trying to
like fool you. It's just something like yards after contact
is measured differently by different sources. Even targets, just raw
(14:04):
targets can be measured differently. Some sites have different target numbers,
so yards over expected isn't going to be any different.
It's just one piece of the puzzle. But when I
talk about a metric like that, I try to use
it in conjunction with other metrics. I'll always cite something
like success rate, which is a more binary way of
(14:24):
looking at running backs. Success rate tells you how often
a running back is providing a positive expected points play,
did his run improve his team's chances of scoring on
that drive? And I like using success rate alongside an
efficiency metric that could be skewed by a big player too.
I think some of these running back metrics get thrown
around way too loosely, especially this time of year. Sample
(14:48):
sizes are not big, and people just assume that what
they're hearing has to be predictive and has to be useful.
But realistically, even with yards over expected per rush, one
big run can to really skew that data, because what
if a player was expected to rush for four yards
on a play and gets ninety right like David Montgomery.
(15:08):
David Montgomery has the best rushing yards over expected in
a single game this year. He was at plus one
hundred and eight yards against Baltimore in Week three. That's
according to next Gen Stats. That led to nine rushing
yards over expected per rush. And he played a great game.
Don't get me wrong, the Lions ran all over the Ravens,
but in that game, Montgomery had a seventy two yard
(15:30):
run on second and ten that's obviously gonna help his total.
Maybe a better example of this is a Mari de
Marcado on his now infamous fumble before the goal line.
Play that was a third and one play from Arizona's
twenty eight yard line. De Marcado gained seventy two yards.
That's a huge run over expected, no matter how it's measured.
(15:51):
And did you know, among all running backs in all
games this year, de Marcado's plus twenty two point five
rushing yards over expected per rush is the highest of
any player in any game. That game where he fumbled
the ball, he had the highest rushing yards over expected
per rush, and it's because he ran the ball three
times and one of them was really long. Now, look,
(16:14):
these models are complicated. They're not something that I would
have any idea how to build. Like the Next Gen
Stats one is using relative location, speed, and direction of
defenders to determine rushing yards over expected. I believe PFF
uses blocking grades to help determine THEIRS. That's not something
that I'd be able to do. In general, even if
I had all the data in the world to help
(16:34):
me out, it would at least be pretty difficult. But
I do think it'll be impossible to capture an entire situation.
Just to your question, like Choopa Hubbard right now, is
that minus point three rushing yards over expected per rush
that's actually lowest in all of football among thirty five
qualified running backs. That's according to Next Gen Stats. He's
one spot below Ramandre Stevenson. Meanwhile, Rico Daddle is fourth highest,
(17:00):
kind only David Montgomery, b Jehan Robinson, and Jacory Krossky married.
You can't tell me that opponent that situation has nothing
to do with that. The fact that Daldo face Miami
in Dallas doesn't play a role in that at all.
This isn't me saying there's nothing to rushing yards over expected.
I just think we should use it alongside other metrics,
and I think you should do that with any metric
(17:21):
in football and in fantasy football. Just don't stare at
one of them and call it a day. And I
think that is especially true when it comes to fantasy football,
where we know volume driven statistics are gonna be more important.
If it's not volume driven, you'll definitely want more context.
And remember that a lot of these don't normalize for
a while. I'm talking like one hundred plus carries ten
(17:43):
plus games. Don't take them too far. But I don't
think we just ignore the data. I'm down to compare
and contrast different metrics to see if there are any
glaring differences within a backfield, and then I want to
investigate that further based on things like schedule an opponent.
I think I did that on Tuesday Show with the
Patriots or just now with the Panthers backfield. If our
(18:03):
goal here is to see who's the better running back
moving forward, we have to at least provide context for
why the player performed a certain way in the past.
This is the beauty of football data and fantasy football
analysis in general. It's not solved, and because it's such
a complicated game, it's not just the one to one
thing like baseball, for instance, It's never going to be solved.
(18:27):
That allows idiots like me to hop on a podcast
and talk through things as opposed to just setting out
a spreadsheet with definitive answers. It's what makes this game
so awesome. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to
all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by
searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it.
(18:48):
Follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. There's a Late Round Fantasy Football show happening
at one pm Eastern here on Friday. Definitely check that
out over on YouTube YouTube slash at LATEROUNDFF. But if
you miss it, it'll drop in the podcast feed tomorrow morning,
and then also later today you'll get another episode of
Late Round Perspectives. Thanks for listening everyone, I greatly appreciate
(19:12):
all of you. Have a great weekend and good luck
in Week seven.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha.
JJ Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten thirty eight of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in.
(00:23):
There's no better way to get closer to the action
than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions
and prizes, with the first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code
Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The Crown is yours. Gambling promo called one hundred Gambler
New York call eight seven seven eight Hope n Why
(00:44):
in Connecticut called eighty to eight seven eight nine seven
seven seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibility restrictions apply
ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com
slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to
these questions. The first rush this week is from Twitter.
It's from at Webb's gems FFL. It says, what type
(01:04):
of process do you use for a player like Rashi
Rice coming off injury and now suspension. In terms of
when to slot them into your lineup, do you need
to sample size or do players of this caliber warn't
immediate play in fantasy. So I got a couple questions
about Rice this week. I'll just throw some thoughts out there.
I can't imagine anyone with Rashi Rice has like two
(01:26):
or three better options than him this week. Genuinely, wide
receivers just really weak across the board this season. They're
like ten to fifteen wide receivers that we actually feel
good about each and every week, and there's just the rest,
Like sure we like Chris Olave more than we like
DJ Moore. I'm just saying from a true difference maker's perspective,
there aren't many wide receivers and guys Rashi Rice has
(01:50):
a legit chance to be a true difference maker. This
isn't a borderline talent and a borderline situation type of play.
This is a good player who plays a great roll
in an offense that has an elite quarterback. Fire upper
she Rice and enjoy the ride. This last question is
also from twitters from at Urban Lab. It says thirteen
(02:13):
targets for Jerry Judy. That's gotta warrant some analysis. Okay,
let's do some analysis. Jerry Judy had thirteen targets against
the Steelers. It still was just a twenty five point
five percent target share though, and I say just because
you'd expect to hire target share with thirteen targets. But
the reason it wasn't higher is because Cleveland threw the
ball a ton against the Steelers. Dylan Gabriel finished that
(02:37):
game with fifty two pass attempts. The week prior to
his debut, he was at thirty three and a much
more neutral game script. To me, Judy only scoring nine
point three p Piero points in an ideal game environment
is pretty telling about him and this situation in general,
Like that was without Cedric Tillman and with a banged
(02:57):
up David and Joku. According to next Gens stats, his
catch rate over expected, which is just telling the story
more than anything else. I'm gonna be talking about these
types of metrics in just a second later in the show,
but his catch trade over expected was minus twenty one
percent in that game. PFF had his catchable targets at
sixty two percent. Like on paper, sure we would love
(03:19):
this kind of usage in a different environment, no doubt,
but Judy has topped out at eleven point six p
per points this season. That was in Week one. He's
still not producing much without Cedric Tillman in the lineup. Now.
I think he's fine this week given the matchup, although
watch the weather in that game. But I don't think
we're gonna see consistent production from Jerry Judy this year,
(03:41):
despite the fact that once again he leads the NFL
in routes run. It's just that, as the kids would say,
the offensive environment is cheeks, right, Did I get that right? Look? Man,
I'm a millennial. I'm starting to get old. But Jerry
Judy is not a good enough player to overcome this situation.
(04:01):
This last question is from Patreon. It's from Rick. It
says thoughts on the running back situation in both Jacksonville
with Etn and Tutin and Houston with Chubb and Marx.
ETN seemed to maybe slowed down and big week for
Marx after the weird one versus Baltimore. I think what's
important with these situations is to follow usage over production.
(04:21):
Production obviously matters, and good production can clearly lead to
more work I mean, look at the discussion happening right
now in Carolina after Rico o'dowdle's got nuts over the
last two weeks. But usage is gonna be more telling
than actual production. Like, for instance, you're saying that Etn
seemed to maybe slow down, but really all that's been
(04:42):
happening is some regression on the production side. This is
why I was talking about him a couple of weeks
ago as a cell candidate. He wasn't gonna maintain his
six yards per carry average while scoring a touchdown every
single game. But there's gonna be more signal for us
as fantasy players when we look at usage unless a
player just playing like egregiously bad or egregiously worse than
(05:03):
his backup, and that's not the case for Etn. What's
funny is that over the last two weeks, when he
hasn't been performing that well, Etn has actually seen his
best running back rush are and target share combos of
the season. From weeks one through four, his target share
per game rate was just seven point four percent over
his last two It's been fourteen percent weeks one to four.
(05:24):
His running back rush share sixty nine percent per game
over his last two, it's been close to seventy eight percent.
And then meanwhile, his snapshare has basically been the same
throughout the thing that change really is just some regression
combined with tougher matchups. Now, I'm still holding Tutin because
I liked him as a prospect and at the very least,
(05:44):
he's a high end handcuff. This is an attractive rushing offense,
and I'm still holding out hope that Etn gives some
of his workaway as the season progresses, But it's clear
right now today Touton's just a stash. Meanwhile, wood He
Marx actually has some usability. I talked about this on
the Sleeper Show yesterday. In a different game script, things
(06:06):
would likely look a little bit different. But again, a
lot of people seem to be looking at that game
before the bye and getting concerned about Woody Marx because
Nick Chubb outproduced him. And yes, of course we'd rather
see Woody Marx outproduce Nick Chubb, but there can be
instances where Nick Chubb outproduces Woody marks. It doesn't mean
that Chubb is a better running back. It's just that
(06:27):
sometimes that's due to matchup. Sometimes things really clicked for
that running back in that game, and despite that game
script against Baltimore being the way that it was, Marx
still had a better snap share than Nick Chubb, and
Chubb's only running routes on like twenty five to thirty
percent of Houston's dropbacks. Right now, I think what's gonna
be really important for fantasy managers, like if you have
(06:49):
Woody Marx, is to not attribute some spike in Woody
Marx's production this week to some post buy bump, because
if that happens, if Woody Marx is a better game,
it's I'm more than likely gonna have something to do
with game script or just having a better game in general.
I also don't think Marks is gonna be like a
full blown bell cow in that offense. That's not how
(07:09):
I viewed him as a prospect. He's someone that I
like because we want receiving work with our running backs,
and if he can find like a fifty percent sixty
percent running back rush share in that offense to go
along with that receiving work, he could be an RB
two in fantasy. Just because Nick Chubb is getting some
work doesn't mean that it's all over for what he Marks.
Keep that in mind too. This ask question is also
(07:33):
from Patreon, is from ap twenty three. It says, Hi, JJ,
what do you think of Darnell Mooney? His rest of
season ranking makes heaps of sense? But is the risk
reward of holding attractive enough to keep taking a five
bench spot for a team that doesn't need to win? Now? Yeah,
you know, I like Darnell Mooney entering the season. I
thought he was a good pick in the double digit rounds.
(07:55):
He just hasn't been healthy period. I was gonna mention
him on the Sleeper Show, but I just didn't have
nearly enough information about his health at that point. But
it does seem at least possible that he plays this weekend,
and he should be rostered in way more than like
the thirty percent of leagues that he's rostered in. The
only reason he's not rostered in more leagues right now
is his health. And yeah, maybe that hurts him rest
(08:17):
of season. Maybe he won't be fully healthy. But I've
said this before. Mooney's played in two full games this year,
and one of them he ran around one hundred percent
of Michael Pennick's dropbacks he had a nineteen percent target share,
and the other one he had a twenty seven percent
target chair. He had eleven targets. It just so happens
that in those two games, Atlanta's passing attack really wasn't
(08:38):
moving the ball. The Falcons desperately need him too. Last week,
Drake London was the only Falcons wide receiver with a catch.
He had a fifty two percent target share. But Mooney
finished twenty twenty four with a ton of deep ball looks,
an ad out of twelve point eight yards and a
thirty three percent air yard share. He had a really
solid one point eighty eight yards per out run rate.
(09:00):
I mean, Darnell Mooney was good last year, and with
wide receiver just not being a very strong position in
fantasy football right now, I don't see why people wouldn't
want to take a chance with Darnell Mooney now. Look,
I felt similarly about Juwan Jennings last week and look
at how that turned out. But I think this is
the right way to approach this game. I don't want
injuries to just make me completely forget who these players are,
(09:21):
because yes, it can go south. Like we saw with
Juwan Jennings, he was way more banged up than I
initially thought I would have never recommended Juwan Jennings as
a bye had I known that everything in his body
was broken. I mean, not really, but you get what
I'm saying. But the question have to ask is what
if this player is actually healthy? What if Darnell Mooney
is actually okay? Then I think that he can be
(09:43):
a viable option in fantasy football. He's at least someone
who should be rostered. This last question from Patreon is
from Taylor. It says, if you have a strong team
in record, how much important slash weight do you assign
to securing a first round by in your decision making.
For example, I am in the interesting situation where I
(10:03):
have a six and zero team, but I've been hit
with impactful injuries Hampton and now Agbuka in recent weeks. Yeah,
I totally feel that I'm also facing a four and
two team than the two other five and one teams
and weeks eight through ten, And in addition to my injuries,
I will also be at a disadvantage from a bye
week perspective in two of those matchups. I'm weighing if
(10:24):
I need to make a trade to put myself in
a better spot for these matchups that have large bye
week implications versus standing pat and aiming to optimize my
roster for the playoff weeks. Curious your thoughts on how
aggressive you get in terms of going for the buye. Thanks, So,
you're probably not gonna want to hear this because it
makes your life a lot more difficult. But bye weeks
(10:44):
are hugely important and hugely underrated in fantasy football. I
know we, myself included other fantasy analysts. We often say
just get into the playoffs and let variants take the wheel.
Now that's true to a degree for sure, but realistically,
having a bye is a really big deal. Just think
about it. Statistically, Let's assume you have a fifty to
(11:06):
fifty shot to win each matchup. If you have two
games to win, that means you have a twenty five
percent chance of winning both games of winning the championship.
If you have three games to win, that chance is
twelve point five percent. So when you have a buye
with that one game that you don't have to play,
you double your title lots. Now. I've had many situations
(11:29):
in my fantasy football career where one reason or another,
sometimes reasons out of my control, like stupid league structures.
I didn't get a bye when I probably should have
gotten a buy. Like there's a situation last year where
I didn't get a bye even though I had the
second best record in the league. It's because there were divisions,
and then my team lost in the first round of
the playoffs, and then obviously, obviously the team goes off
(11:52):
in the final two weeks and it's really frustrating. But
in those situations, you really realize how important that bye
week is. But look, don't go crazy and don't be
suboptimal in your trading. Like I don't think you should
just trade away at Mechaic Buca and sell them low
just because you want to get that buy. But I
think it's good to have that in mind. I think
(12:13):
it's important to know the importance of that bye week.
The last question this week is an email that says, hey, JJ,
can you talk about rushing yards over expectations and how
reliable or useful it is when guys like Chase Brown
or the Patriots running backs are at the bottom? Is
it as useful when they're run blocking? Isn't the best?
(12:34):
Is it more of an indication on which side of
a backfield pairing is better. Thanks Andrew So for the record,
I'm recording this before Thursday Night's game. That's related to
Chase Brown being in this question, even though my answer
literally has nothing to do with him. I've said it
before on the show, but I think most running back
metrics are kind of iffy because running back is dependent
(12:56):
on more factors than other positions are. I mean, even
wide receiver metrics like yards per route run. Anyone selling
those metrics as perfect, they're fooling you. They're just a
piece of the puzzle because we know there's predictive value
to them, or like first downs per oute run, whatever
metric that you want to use that objectively has some
predictive value. There are so many different running back metrics
(13:19):
out there these days, so it's not easy to just
test and see which ones are most predictive. But a
lot of them are just descriptive, at least for fantasy purposes,
meaning they tell you a story about how something went down,
not how something is about to go down. Not only that,
but some metrics are measured differently. I realized after the fact,
(13:40):
but on Tuesday's fifteen Transaction show, when I talked about
Ramandre Stevenson, I realized that people could just go to
PFF and see totally different numbers than the ones that
I talked about because I use next Gen Stats, That's
where I pulled my data from. I wasn't trying to
like fool you. It's just something like yards after contact
is measured differently by different sources. Even targets, just raw
(14:04):
targets can be measured differently. Some sites have different target numbers,
so yards over expected isn't going to be any different.
It's just one piece of the puzzle. But when I
talk about a metric like that, I try to use
it in conjunction with other metrics. I'll always cite something
like success rate, which is a more binary way of
(14:24):
looking at running backs. Success rate tells you how often
a running back is providing a positive expected points play,
did his run improve his team's chances of scoring on
that drive? And I like using success rate alongside an
efficiency metric that could be skewed by a big player too.
I think some of these running back metrics get thrown
around way too loosely, especially this time of year. Sample
(14:48):
sizes are not big, and people just assume that what
they're hearing has to be predictive and has to be useful.
But realistically, even with yards over expected per rush, one
big run can to really skew that data, because what
if a player was expected to rush for four yards
on a play and gets ninety right like David Montgomery.
(15:08):
David Montgomery has the best rushing yards over expected in
a single game this year. He was at plus one
hundred and eight yards against Baltimore in Week three. That's
according to next Gen Stats. That led to nine rushing
yards over expected per rush. And he played a great game.
Don't get me wrong, the Lions ran all over the Ravens,
but in that game, Montgomery had a seventy two yard
(15:30):
run on second and ten that's obviously gonna help his total.
Maybe a better example of this is a Mari de
Marcado on his now infamous fumble before the goal line.
Play that was a third and one play from Arizona's
twenty eight yard line. De Marcado gained seventy two yards.
That's a huge run over expected, no matter how it's measured.
(15:51):
And did you know, among all running backs in all
games this year, de Marcado's plus twenty two point five
rushing yards over expected per rush is the highest of
any player in any game. That game where he fumbled
the ball, he had the highest rushing yards over expected
per rush, and it's because he ran the ball three
times and one of them was really long. Now, look,
(16:14):
these models are complicated. They're not something that I would
have any idea how to build. Like the Next Gen
Stats one is using relative location, speed, and direction of
defenders to determine rushing yards over expected. I believe PFF
uses blocking grades to help determine THEIRS. That's not something
that I'd be able to do. In general, even if
I had all the data in the world to help
(16:34):
me out, it would at least be pretty difficult. But
I do think it'll be impossible to capture an entire situation.
Just to your question, like Choopa Hubbard right now, is
that minus point three rushing yards over expected per rush
that's actually lowest in all of football among thirty five
qualified running backs. That's according to Next Gen Stats. He's
one spot below Ramandre Stevenson. Meanwhile, Rico Daddle is fourth highest,
(17:00):
kind only David Montgomery, b Jehan Robinson, and Jacory Krossky married.
You can't tell me that opponent that situation has nothing
to do with that. The fact that Daldo face Miami
in Dallas doesn't play a role in that at all.
This isn't me saying there's nothing to rushing yards over expected.
I just think we should use it alongside other metrics,
and I think you should do that with any metric
(17:21):
in football and in fantasy football. Just don't stare at
one of them and call it a day. And I
think that is especially true when it comes to fantasy football,
where we know volume driven statistics are gonna be more important.
If it's not volume driven, you'll definitely want more context.
And remember that a lot of these don't normalize for
a while. I'm talking like one hundred plus carries ten
(17:43):
plus games. Don't take them too far. But I don't
think we just ignore the data. I'm down to compare
and contrast different metrics to see if there are any
glaring differences within a backfield, and then I want to
investigate that further based on things like schedule an opponent.
I think I did that on Tuesday Show with the
Patriots or just now with the Panthers backfield. If our
(18:03):
goal here is to see who's the better running back
moving forward, we have to at least provide context for
why the player performed a certain way in the past.
This is the beauty of football data and fantasy football
analysis in general. It's not solved, and because it's such
a complicated game, it's not just the one to one
thing like baseball, for instance, It's never going to be solved.
(18:27):
That allows idiots like me to hop on a podcast
and talk through things as opposed to just setting out
a spreadsheet with definitive answers. It's what makes this game
so awesome. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to
all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by
searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it.
(18:48):
Follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. There's a Late Round Fantasy Football show happening
at one pm Eastern here on Friday. Definitely check that
out over on YouTube YouTube slash at LATEROUNDFF. But if
you miss it, it'll drop in the podcast feed tomorrow morning,
and then also later today you'll get another episode of
Late Round Perspectives. Thanks for listening everyone, I greatly appreciate
(19:12):
all of you. Have a great weekend and good luck
in Week seven.
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