November 4, 2025 • 19 mins
On this week's 15 Transactions episode, JJ talks about Parker Washington, Colston Loveland, Aaron Jones, and so much more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa
JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this
episode ten forty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. We're at a point in the
season where we generally have an idea for teams are
(00:24):
coasting the playoffs or if they're not. Some of your
teams need variants to get there. Some of them don't,
so as you listen to Transactions this week, it's important
to keep that thought in mind. I'm trying to help
all sorts of teams here, not just the ones that
are eight and one, and not just the ones that
are one and eight. But hopefully there's a little something
for you specifically on this week's episode, So let's get
(00:45):
to it. Ad Parker Washington. Travis Hunter was placed on
IR after I did the fifteen Transactions episode last week,
and then on Sunday we had some more issues without
Jacksonville Wide receiver room Me Brown suffered a concussion, so
his status for week ten is currently up in the air.
Brian Thomas, if you watch that game, it looked like
(01:07):
he had an ankle injury and he was limping a
little bit, so we'll see what happens with Thomas throughout
this week. The last man standing, though, is Parker Washington.
He came through for fantasy managers in Week nine, securing
eight of nine targets for ninety yards. He's now seen
nineteen targets over their last two games. Regardless of the
status of these other pass catchers. With Hunter on ir,
(01:30):
Washington should be rostered in most leagues. There's a lot
of volume upside by Woody Marx. The expectation for Woody
Marx should not be that he's going to be a
bell cow back in the NFL, at least this season.
I don't think that's a rational expectation. With that being said,
there's nothing wrong with his current role in this offense.
(01:53):
He started getting more work back in Week four, and
since then he's averaged a forty six percent running back
rush air per game rate and a ten percent target
share during that timeframe. According to PFF's expected Fantasy points model,
it says that Woody Marx should have been averaging thirteen
point one PPR points per game. He's been at twelve
point one. Guys, not every running back is going to
(02:15):
be like Jumior Gibbs, or at least Jamiir Gibbs not
in Week nine other Jamier Gibbs. It's okay to say
that this guy might be a high end RB three
or just a mid to low end RB two. And
not only that, Marx could just improve as he gets
more reps in the NFL. And on top of that,
the schedule for Houston, in my opinion, is set up
really well, specifically for Marx. We want two things for
(02:38):
Woody Marx. We won an easy rush defense and a
possible negative game script. If the matchup is good, then
you'll have a chance to score more points even on
the limited opportunities. But if there's a negative game script,
he's the one who's gonna be on the field. Since
Week four, according to Fantasy Life data, Marx has played
eighty six percent of the team's two minute snaps. Nick
(02:59):
Chubb hasn't played any of them. The Texans get the Jags, Titans, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders,
and Chargers through the end of the fantasy season. My
numbers give their running backs a top ten rest of
season schedule, and there are some games in there where
Woody Mars can really come through. In a negative game
script as a receiver, So coming off that poor showing
(03:21):
against Denver, it might not be a bad idea if
you can swap some bench assets for woody marks at
JJ McCarthy. So I talked about this last week on
the show, but it just felt like people were prematurely
burying JJ McCarthy. He had that Week one game against
the Bears where he had a good second half, and
then he faced Atlanta in Week two, and as we
(03:43):
know now, that matchup is not nearly as easy as
we thought back then. But he came through against the Lions.
He finished the week in the top ten among all
qualified quarterbacks and completion rate over expected. He's now given
fantasy managers two usable performances in three starts. Again, that
one bad game happening in the Atlanta Falcons. They've surrendered
(04:05):
the fewest passing yards over expected this year. And maybe
you're sitting there and you're saying, well, he's only done
well against the Bears and the Lions. Okay, fair, But
here's the thing. Minnesota's rest of the season schedule looks
pretty great. According to my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers,
seventy five percent of their remaining matchups, their favorable matchups.
They get games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions
(04:26):
to close out the season. He might not be an
every week starter for your fantasy team, but you'll want
to roster him for certain matchups. And what if he's
just better than what everyone thought ad Devin Singletary. Look
strictly from a process standpoint, I think it was logical
to think that Tyrone Tracy would see the most work
(04:48):
in that Giants backfield post Cam Scataboo injury. Just last year.
Tyrone Tracy showed us what he's capable of in Week five.
After that point in time, we watched this same New
York coaching staff give Tracy a seventy two percent running
back rush aare per game and an eleven percent target share.
His snap rate during that timeframe was sixty eight percent,
(05:09):
and that was on a team with Devin Singletary. Even
last week, when that Cam Scataboo injury happened, Tracy had
a sixty four percent snap share. Devin Singletary was at
sixteen percent. So what did the Giants do in Week nine?
They gave Devin Singletary seven more snaps than Tyrone Tracy
Tracy's forty five percent snap share was lower than all
(05:31):
but one game post breakout last season. Fantasy football can
be so freaking frustrating sometimes. Now, Tracy wasn't one hundred
percent late in that game against San Francisco on Sunday.
He was a little bit banged up, but the Giants
were splitting work well before that. They gave Singletary more
ground game stuff Tyrone Tracy. He ran more routes, did
a little bit more through the air. But because of that,
(05:54):
Singletary is now more of a priority in Week ten
than he was in Week nine. Do be aware, though,
that the Giants running backs have a pretty tough rest
of season schedule, and I don't know if Devin Singletary
is gonna have tons of usability without a Tyrone Tracy injury.
But for deeper formats or just for handcuffing purposes, you
can add Devin Singletary. Sell Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman has
(06:19):
had a low key awesome season. He scored twenty plus
PPR points in three straight games. He's got about a
twenty four percent target share per game rate on the
entire season, and let's be honest, the Fantasy football world,
they're not really buying into it because we're sitting back
and we're saying, at some point, this is gonna crash, right,
And it kind of did on Sunday against the Steelers
(06:40):
for Daniel Jones, but Michael Pittman was still great. So
you might be wondering, why are we selling Michael Pittman.
And this is one of those transactions that needs a
lot of context. If someone in your fantasy league fully
understands Michael Pittman's value, then that's where this transaction is
more usable. But more importantly, I would only be trading
(07:01):
away Michael Pittman if I desperately needed a win. Like
I said at the top, this time of year, you
generally have an idea if your fantasy squad or playoff
bound or not. If you're sitting there with Michael Pittman
and you're three and six, maybe even four and five,
and you really need a win, you might want to
consider selling him because over the team's next three games,
they get the Falcons, the Chiefs, and the Texans pre
(07:23):
Monday Night Football. The Chiefs and Texans are bottom three
opponents for wide receivers by justin fantasy points a lot.
The Falcons. They're a bottom ten team. The Colts also
have their buy in week eleven. That means we've got
a month before we might see typical Michael Pittman numbers. Again,
this is not a move that I would feel good
about making if I knew I was going to make
the playoffs. The Colts get the forty nine ers and
(07:45):
the Jags in week sixteen and seventeen, Pittman should be
fine there, and honestly, he should still be fine enough
during this rough stretch. I'm just saying, if you need
to invite a little bit more variance and sell a
little high because Michael Pittman has been off, you might
want to consider doing that given this upcoming stretch. Add
(08:06):
Tory Horton. If I'm being completely objective with you guys,
which I always try to do, but entering week nine,
Tory Horton's yards per rout run rate not very good.
It was sub one. He had fewer than one yard
per route run. That's not a strong number, even for
a rookie. But regardless of what the data is saying,
I like Tory Horton. I liked him a lot as
(08:28):
a prospect. I talked about him this summer. I talked
about him in season he scored well in the ZAP
model compared to his draft capital because he had strong
collegiate production and he's athletic. The athleticism part isn't part
of the ZAP model, but it all comes through with
his production. So needless to say, I'm not like overly
surprised that he had a good Week nine with Cooper
(08:48):
Cups sidelined, and there's a chance he's gonna have opportunity
to build on that moving forward. I just want to say,
even though you should be adding him temper expectations, he's
been below a twenty percent target in all but one
game this year, and that includes Week nine and Cooper Cup.
He at least has a chance to return this week.
(09:09):
Hold Jacorey Krossky Merit so. On last week's ten Trends episode,
I talked about how Jacory Krossky Merrit just hasn't been
generating big plays. From weeks one through five, Bill had
a ten plus yard run rate of twenty point nine percent.
From Week six through eight, it was two point six percent.
On Sunday Night, he didn't have a run of ten
(09:30):
or more yards. That's been the major difference between early
season Bill and current season Bill. He's not generating big
plays and that's resulted in just seventeen point six PPR
points over his last four games combined. Now, that game
on Sunday Night, it was a little bit weird, but
he did finish that game with only a forty eight
(09:50):
percent running back rush share. In his four games prior
to that, he was around seventy eight percent volume through
the air. That continues to be a problem. He's typically
getting ten to fifteen, sometimes more touches on the ground
per game. My stance is that you shouldn't throw that
kind of volume onto the waiver wire, even if the
performance hasn't been there. We're gonna likely see some more
(10:13):
big plays from Bill in the coming weeks, just because
regression tells us so and the Commanders have a pretty
good remaining schedule for running backs. They have games against
the Dolphins, Giants, and Cowboys still remaining on that schedule,
and with the Jayden Daniels injury and this season looking
a little hopeless for Washington, would it really surprise you
if the Commanders give Bill more work down the stretch
to see what he's made of, to see what they
(10:35):
have in him. So for now, he's someone to just
hold you. Obviously can't start him until you see more,
but I do think he still deserves a bench spot.
Add Theo Johnson. So Tucker Craft managers, you're looking for
a replacement on the waiver wire this week, and one
of those replacements could be Theo Johnson. He's low key
(10:56):
getting it done this year. He's averaging eleven and a
half PPERO points game since Malik Neighbor's season ending injury.
That's a low end tight end one number. He hasn't
fallen below a fifteen percent target share since that injury.
And for what it's worth, New York has a top
half schedule for tight ends rest of season and a
top ten to one in the fantasy playoffs by Aaron Jones.
(11:20):
So I got to get this out of the way first.
Aaron Jones did suffer a shoulder injury against the Lions
on Sunday. The belief right now is that he could
play next week, so that's all good. Before that injury,
according to my friend Dwayne McFarlane, a Fantasy Life, Jones
had a seventy seven percent snap share, a sixty eight
percent route share, a thirteen percent target share, and he
had seen seventy percent of the team's rush attempts. He
(11:43):
was operating very clearly as the top running back in
that backfield, and he looked better than Jordan Mason, very
clearly in my opinion. Hypothetically, let's say this type of
usage continues. If Aaron Jones is healthy, that could be
huge in fantasy football. The Vikings get the Ravens and
the Bears in Minnesota over their next two games. Those
(12:05):
are fine opponents. Then it's two tough ones on the
road against Green Bay and Seattle, but they close out
the year. As I said earlier with JJ McCarthy against
the Commanders, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Lions, It's
hard to find a better end of season stretch than
those four games. Chances are the teams with Aaron Jones,
(12:25):
they're not like overjoyed to have him right now. So
if you want to take a chance with some depth,
I'd say go for it. Trade for Aaron Jones, even
if he misses some time in the short term. This
is a long term play, and because of that short
term injury, maybe you even get him cheaper. Add Colston Loveland.
(12:46):
Colston Loveland had a big, big breakout in Week nine,
including that game winning touchdown against the Bengals. He scored
twenty nine point eight ppiar points. He had about a
twenty two percent target shair. Those were both season highs
by a good margin. He's now had better act to
back games with at least a seventy five percent routeshare.
Even before cole Comet left Sunday's game with a concussion,
(13:06):
Loveland had a roudshare that was well over sixty percent,
so he was trending in the right direction. Now. I
do find this situation with Loveland pretty interesting. On one hand,
you have a very talented prospect who finally showed us
what he can do. He's getting more looks in his offense.
On the other hand, his ceiling has been capped because
of Cole Comet, because he has his tight end teammate
(13:30):
and the Bears. They face the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed
twelve tight end touchdowns this year, when no other team
has allowed more than six. But you guys know my
philosophy by now. When you get a talented young player
who shows out, whether it's via peripherals or just by production,
you almost always want to buy into that player. So
(13:51):
if Colston Lovelin's on your waiver wire, he should be
added this week. Sell Dj Moore. So for us was
that Bengals defense has been cornerback Dj Turner. He's kind
of been excellent in coverage this year, and you can
see that in the Fantasy Football stat sheets number two
wide receivers. They're often outperforming the top wide receivers against
(14:12):
the Bengals. We've seen some down games from Justin Jefferson,
DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas, now Roma Doonza when they faced
the Bengals. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims had a big outing against them,
Matthew Golden outscored Romeo Dobbs, and DJ Moore had his
best game of the season in Week nine against the Bengals,
And that's one reason as to why you should try
(14:33):
to sell him now. He's had a really disappointing twenty
twenty five. He's max out at just a twenty percent
target chair in a single game this year. Even Sunday's
twenty three point performance saw him with a sub twenty
percent target chair. He was averaging fewer than ten PPR
points per game heading into Week nine. The reason his
numbers look so good is because he had a rushing touchdown,
(14:54):
which is not sustainable, and in a passing touchdown, which
is even less sustainable. This kind of stuff is not
gonna happen every single week. And also Moore looked like
he heard his hamstring in that game, but he did
re enter the game. There are just a lot of
reasons here as to why I'm not very bullish on
DJ Moore moving forward despite what he did in week nine.
(15:15):
So if you can sell him high, definitely try to
do that. Add Blake Koram, I'm pretty surprised that Blake
Korm is still available in over ninety percent of Yahoo leaks.
Koram's not seeing a ton of work through the air,
but he is digging into Kien Williams workload in that offense.
Since week four, Koram has a thirty two percent running
back rush share per game rate, and that includes a
(15:37):
game where he screwed up early and he wasn't heard
from again. You remove that game, his share moves up
to thirty eight percent. Maybe your league isn't deep enough
where you'd actually start Blake Korm. I totally get that,
but he's got to be one of the higher end
handcuffs and fantasy football. Right now, given the way La
is moving the ball, an injury to Kien Williams Koram
(15:58):
would skyrocket through the running back ran. This is your
reminder that a lot of times players like Quorum, they're
better stashes than the random veteran wide receivers with like
wide receiver, three wide receiver, four ceilings, handcuffing and getting
back up running max. You should be adding those types
of players way more frequently this time of year, and
this is just your reminder for that. Add Christian Watson.
(16:23):
So I tried to avoid repeat transactions, and I did
talk about Christian Watson last week, but he's still rostered
in fewer than thirty percent of Yahoo leagues. And things
are pretty interesting in Green Bay right now. They're coming
off a really bad day offensively, and in that game
against Carolina they lost Matthew Golden to a shoulder injury
and Tucker Craft to an ACL. Matthew Golden could play
(16:45):
next week. I have no idea how long he's going
to be out, if at all, right now at the
time of this recording, but with Tucker Craft out, we're
looking at the potential for more looks to go elsewhere.
Watson saw a seventy five percent routeshare in Week nine.
That was up from sixty five percent in Week eight.
He hit another eleven percent target share. If he can
establish himself over the next week or two games that
(17:05):
could be without Golden and Jaden Reid, then there's some
potential for him to get some production through the end
of the year. Green Bay has the third best median
opponent in the Fantasy playoffs according to My numbers, and
they had the third best rest of season schedule for
wide receivers too, So I do think Christian Watson should
be rostered in more leagues ad Marcus Mariota. So with
(17:29):
Jayden Daniels set to miss an extended period of time,
Marcus Mariota he's back in our streaming lives. He's averaged
almost thirty rushing yards per game in his three starts
this year. He also scored a rushing touchdown Last year
in two games were relief for Daniels, we saw him
with thirty four and fifty six rushing yards. There's a
rushing floor with Marcus Mariota, and the schedule for Washington
(17:51):
doesn't look that bad either. They'll get the Lions this week,
making Mariota a viable streamer. Then they get the Dolphins, Broncos, Vikings, Giants, Eagles,
and Cowboys. I think that we're gonna see some usability
from Marcus Mariota given that rushing backbone. Let's just hope
that he gets Terry McLaurin back at some point. And
for the record, if you're thinking about Sam Darnald, I
do like Donald more than Mariota. He's just something that
(18:14):
I've talked about before. And he's rostered in half of
Yahoo leagues given he was a top streamer last week.
So if you already have someone like Sam Darnold on
your roster, you don't need to add Marcus Mariota. But
I do think Mariota is more of that traditional streamer type.
Add the Cleveland Browns defense, so because they're bye week,
(18:35):
the Browns are rostered in just thirty one percent of
Yahoo leagues and they get the Jets this week. That
game has a thirty six and a half point total.
This season, New York has been the seventh best matchup
for opposing defenses by justin fantasy points allowed, no matter
who's under center for the Jets, the Browns make plenty
of sense as a streaming choice. That's it for today's show,
though thanks Tolby for listening. If you had subscribed to
(18:57):
the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are
shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa
JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this
episode ten forty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. We're at a point in the
season where we generally have an idea for teams are
(00:24):
coasting the playoffs or if they're not. Some of your
teams need variants to get there. Some of them don't,
so as you listen to Transactions this week, it's important
to keep that thought in mind. I'm trying to help
all sorts of teams here, not just the ones that
are eight and one, and not just the ones that
are one and eight. But hopefully there's a little something
for you specifically on this week's episode, So let's get
(00:45):
to it. Ad Parker Washington. Travis Hunter was placed on
IR after I did the fifteen Transactions episode last week,
and then on Sunday we had some more issues without
Jacksonville Wide receiver room Me Brown suffered a concussion, so
his status for week ten is currently up in the air.
Brian Thomas, if you watch that game, it looked like
(01:07):
he had an ankle injury and he was limping a
little bit, so we'll see what happens with Thomas throughout
this week. The last man standing, though, is Parker Washington.
He came through for fantasy managers in Week nine, securing
eight of nine targets for ninety yards. He's now seen
nineteen targets over their last two games. Regardless of the
status of these other pass catchers. With Hunter on ir,
(01:30):
Washington should be rostered in most leagues. There's a lot
of volume upside by Woody Marx. The expectation for Woody
Marx should not be that he's going to be a
bell cow back in the NFL, at least this season.
I don't think that's a rational expectation. With that being said,
there's nothing wrong with his current role in this offense.
(01:53):
He started getting more work back in Week four, and
since then he's averaged a forty six percent running back
rush air per game rate and a ten percent target
share during that timeframe. According to PFF's expected Fantasy points model,
it says that Woody Marx should have been averaging thirteen
point one PPR points per game. He's been at twelve
point one. Guys, not every running back is going to
(02:15):
be like Jumior Gibbs, or at least Jamiir Gibbs not
in Week nine other Jamier Gibbs. It's okay to say
that this guy might be a high end RB three
or just a mid to low end RB two. And
not only that, Marx could just improve as he gets
more reps in the NFL. And on top of that,
the schedule for Houston, in my opinion, is set up
really well, specifically for Marx. We want two things for
(02:38):
Woody Marx. We won an easy rush defense and a
possible negative game script. If the matchup is good, then
you'll have a chance to score more points even on
the limited opportunities. But if there's a negative game script,
he's the one who's gonna be on the field. Since
Week four, according to Fantasy Life data, Marx has played
eighty six percent of the team's two minute snaps. Nick
(02:59):
Chubb hasn't played any of them. The Texans get the Jags, Titans, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders,
and Chargers through the end of the fantasy season. My
numbers give their running backs a top ten rest of
season schedule, and there are some games in there where
Woody Mars can really come through. In a negative game
script as a receiver, So coming off that poor showing
(03:21):
against Denver, it might not be a bad idea if
you can swap some bench assets for woody marks at
JJ McCarthy. So I talked about this last week on
the show, but it just felt like people were prematurely
burying JJ McCarthy. He had that Week one game against
the Bears where he had a good second half, and
then he faced Atlanta in Week two, and as we
(03:43):
know now, that matchup is not nearly as easy as
we thought back then. But he came through against the Lions.
He finished the week in the top ten among all
qualified quarterbacks and completion rate over expected. He's now given
fantasy managers two usable performances in three starts. Again, that
one bad game happening in the Atlanta Falcons. They've surrendered
(04:05):
the fewest passing yards over expected this year. And maybe
you're sitting there and you're saying, well, he's only done
well against the Bears and the Lions. Okay, fair, But
here's the thing. Minnesota's rest of the season schedule looks
pretty great. According to my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers,
seventy five percent of their remaining matchups, their favorable matchups.
They get games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions
(04:26):
to close out the season. He might not be an
every week starter for your fantasy team, but you'll want
to roster him for certain matchups. And what if he's
just better than what everyone thought ad Devin Singletary. Look
strictly from a process standpoint, I think it was logical
to think that Tyrone Tracy would see the most work
(04:48):
in that Giants backfield post Cam Scataboo injury. Just last year.
Tyrone Tracy showed us what he's capable of in Week five.
After that point in time, we watched this same New
York coaching staff give Tracy a seventy two percent running
back rush aare per game and an eleven percent target share.
His snap rate during that timeframe was sixty eight percent,
(05:09):
and that was on a team with Devin Singletary. Even
last week, when that Cam Scataboo injury happened, Tracy had
a sixty four percent snap share. Devin Singletary was at
sixteen percent. So what did the Giants do in Week nine?
They gave Devin Singletary seven more snaps than Tyrone Tracy
Tracy's forty five percent snap share was lower than all
(05:31):
but one game post breakout last season. Fantasy football can
be so freaking frustrating sometimes. Now, Tracy wasn't one hundred
percent late in that game against San Francisco on Sunday.
He was a little bit banged up, but the Giants
were splitting work well before that. They gave Singletary more
ground game stuff Tyrone Tracy. He ran more routes, did
a little bit more through the air. But because of that,
(05:54):
Singletary is now more of a priority in Week ten
than he was in Week nine. Do be aware, though,
that the Giants running backs have a pretty tough rest
of season schedule, and I don't know if Devin Singletary
is gonna have tons of usability without a Tyrone Tracy injury.
But for deeper formats or just for handcuffing purposes, you
can add Devin Singletary. Sell Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman has
(06:19):
had a low key awesome season. He scored twenty plus
PPR points in three straight games. He's got about a
twenty four percent target share per game rate on the
entire season, and let's be honest, the Fantasy football world,
they're not really buying into it because we're sitting back
and we're saying, at some point, this is gonna crash, right,
And it kind of did on Sunday against the Steelers
(06:40):
for Daniel Jones, but Michael Pittman was still great. So
you might be wondering, why are we selling Michael Pittman.
And this is one of those transactions that needs a
lot of context. If someone in your fantasy league fully
understands Michael Pittman's value, then that's where this transaction is
more usable. But more importantly, I would only be trading
(07:01):
away Michael Pittman if I desperately needed a win. Like
I said at the top, this time of year, you
generally have an idea if your fantasy squad or playoff
bound or not. If you're sitting there with Michael Pittman
and you're three and six, maybe even four and five,
and you really need a win, you might want to
consider selling him because over the team's next three games,
they get the Falcons, the Chiefs, and the Texans pre
(07:23):
Monday Night Football. The Chiefs and Texans are bottom three
opponents for wide receivers by justin fantasy points a lot.
The Falcons. They're a bottom ten team. The Colts also
have their buy in week eleven. That means we've got
a month before we might see typical Michael Pittman numbers. Again,
this is not a move that I would feel good
about making if I knew I was going to make
the playoffs. The Colts get the forty nine ers and
(07:45):
the Jags in week sixteen and seventeen, Pittman should be
fine there, and honestly, he should still be fine enough
during this rough stretch. I'm just saying, if you need
to invite a little bit more variance and sell a
little high because Michael Pittman has been off, you might
want to consider doing that given this upcoming stretch. Add
(08:06):
Tory Horton. If I'm being completely objective with you guys,
which I always try to do, but entering week nine,
Tory Horton's yards per rout run rate not very good.
It was sub one. He had fewer than one yard
per route run. That's not a strong number, even for
a rookie. But regardless of what the data is saying,
I like Tory Horton. I liked him a lot as
(08:28):
a prospect. I talked about him this summer. I talked
about him in season he scored well in the ZAP
model compared to his draft capital because he had strong
collegiate production and he's athletic. The athleticism part isn't part
of the ZAP model, but it all comes through with
his production. So needless to say, I'm not like overly
surprised that he had a good Week nine with Cooper
(08:48):
Cups sidelined, and there's a chance he's gonna have opportunity
to build on that moving forward. I just want to say,
even though you should be adding him temper expectations, he's
been below a twenty percent target in all but one
game this year, and that includes Week nine and Cooper Cup.
He at least has a chance to return this week.
(09:09):
Hold Jacorey Krossky Merit so. On last week's ten Trends episode,
I talked about how Jacory Krossky Merrit just hasn't been
generating big plays. From weeks one through five, Bill had
a ten plus yard run rate of twenty point nine percent.
From Week six through eight, it was two point six percent.
On Sunday Night, he didn't have a run of ten
(09:30):
or more yards. That's been the major difference between early
season Bill and current season Bill. He's not generating big
plays and that's resulted in just seventeen point six PPR
points over his last four games combined. Now, that game
on Sunday Night, it was a little bit weird, but
he did finish that game with only a forty eight
(09:50):
percent running back rush share. In his four games prior
to that, he was around seventy eight percent volume through
the air. That continues to be a problem. He's typically
getting ten to fifteen, sometimes more touches on the ground
per game. My stance is that you shouldn't throw that
kind of volume onto the waiver wire, even if the
performance hasn't been there. We're gonna likely see some more
(10:13):
big plays from Bill in the coming weeks, just because
regression tells us so and the Commanders have a pretty
good remaining schedule for running backs. They have games against
the Dolphins, Giants, and Cowboys still remaining on that schedule,
and with the Jayden Daniels injury and this season looking
a little hopeless for Washington, would it really surprise you
if the Commanders give Bill more work down the stretch
to see what he's made of, to see what they
(10:35):
have in him. So for now, he's someone to just
hold you. Obviously can't start him until you see more,
but I do think he still deserves a bench spot.
Add Theo Johnson. So Tucker Craft managers, you're looking for
a replacement on the waiver wire this week, and one
of those replacements could be Theo Johnson. He's low key
(10:56):
getting it done this year. He's averaging eleven and a
half PPERO points game since Malik Neighbor's season ending injury.
That's a low end tight end one number. He hasn't
fallen below a fifteen percent target share since that injury.
And for what it's worth, New York has a top
half schedule for tight ends rest of season and a
top ten to one in the fantasy playoffs by Aaron Jones.
(11:20):
So I got to get this out of the way first.
Aaron Jones did suffer a shoulder injury against the Lions
on Sunday. The belief right now is that he could
play next week, so that's all good. Before that injury,
according to my friend Dwayne McFarlane, a Fantasy Life, Jones
had a seventy seven percent snap share, a sixty eight
percent route share, a thirteen percent target share, and he
had seen seventy percent of the team's rush attempts. He
(11:43):
was operating very clearly as the top running back in
that backfield, and he looked better than Jordan Mason, very
clearly in my opinion. Hypothetically, let's say this type of
usage continues. If Aaron Jones is healthy, that could be
huge in fantasy football. The Vikings get the Ravens and
the Bears in Minnesota over their next two games. Those
(12:05):
are fine opponents. Then it's two tough ones on the
road against Green Bay and Seattle, but they close out
the year. As I said earlier with JJ McCarthy against
the Commanders, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Lions, It's
hard to find a better end of season stretch than
those four games. Chances are the teams with Aaron Jones,
(12:25):
they're not like overjoyed to have him right now. So
if you want to take a chance with some depth,
I'd say go for it. Trade for Aaron Jones, even
if he misses some time in the short term. This
is a long term play, and because of that short
term injury, maybe you even get him cheaper. Add Colston Loveland.
(12:46):
Colston Loveland had a big, big breakout in Week nine,
including that game winning touchdown against the Bengals. He scored
twenty nine point eight ppiar points. He had about a
twenty two percent target shair. Those were both season highs
by a good margin. He's now had better act to
back games with at least a seventy five percent routeshare.
Even before cole Comet left Sunday's game with a concussion,
(13:06):
Loveland had a roudshare that was well over sixty percent,
so he was trending in the right direction. Now. I
do find this situation with Loveland pretty interesting. On one hand,
you have a very talented prospect who finally showed us
what he can do. He's getting more looks in his offense.
On the other hand, his ceiling has been capped because
of Cole Comet, because he has his tight end teammate
(13:30):
and the Bears. They face the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed
twelve tight end touchdowns this year, when no other team
has allowed more than six. But you guys know my
philosophy by now. When you get a talented young player
who shows out, whether it's via peripherals or just by production,
you almost always want to buy into that player. So
(13:51):
if Colston Lovelin's on your waiver wire, he should be
added this week. Sell Dj Moore. So for us was
that Bengals defense has been cornerback Dj Turner. He's kind
of been excellent in coverage this year, and you can
see that in the Fantasy Football stat sheets number two
wide receivers. They're often outperforming the top wide receivers against
(14:12):
the Bengals. We've seen some down games from Justin Jefferson,
DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas, now Roma Doonza when they faced
the Bengals. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims had a big outing against them,
Matthew Golden outscored Romeo Dobbs, and DJ Moore had his
best game of the season in Week nine against the Bengals,
And that's one reason as to why you should try
(14:33):
to sell him now. He's had a really disappointing twenty
twenty five. He's max out at just a twenty percent
target chair in a single game this year. Even Sunday's
twenty three point performance saw him with a sub twenty
percent target chair. He was averaging fewer than ten PPR
points per game heading into Week nine. The reason his
numbers look so good is because he had a rushing touchdown,
(14:54):
which is not sustainable, and in a passing touchdown, which
is even less sustainable. This kind of stuff is not
gonna happen every single week. And also Moore looked like
he heard his hamstring in that game, but he did
re enter the game. There are just a lot of
reasons here as to why I'm not very bullish on
DJ Moore moving forward despite what he did in week nine.
(15:15):
So if you can sell him high, definitely try to
do that. Add Blake Koram, I'm pretty surprised that Blake
Korm is still available in over ninety percent of Yahoo leaks.
Koram's not seeing a ton of work through the air,
but he is digging into Kien Williams workload in that offense.
Since week four, Koram has a thirty two percent running
back rush share per game rate, and that includes a
(15:37):
game where he screwed up early and he wasn't heard
from again. You remove that game, his share moves up
to thirty eight percent. Maybe your league isn't deep enough
where you'd actually start Blake Korm. I totally get that,
but he's got to be one of the higher end
handcuffs and fantasy football. Right now, given the way La
is moving the ball, an injury to Kien Williams Koram
(15:58):
would skyrocket through the running back ran. This is your
reminder that a lot of times players like Quorum, they're
better stashes than the random veteran wide receivers with like
wide receiver, three wide receiver, four ceilings, handcuffing and getting
back up running max. You should be adding those types
of players way more frequently this time of year, and
this is just your reminder for that. Add Christian Watson.
(16:23):
So I tried to avoid repeat transactions, and I did
talk about Christian Watson last week, but he's still rostered
in fewer than thirty percent of Yahoo leagues. And things
are pretty interesting in Green Bay right now. They're coming
off a really bad day offensively, and in that game
against Carolina they lost Matthew Golden to a shoulder injury
and Tucker Craft to an ACL. Matthew Golden could play
(16:45):
next week. I have no idea how long he's going
to be out, if at all, right now at the
time of this recording, but with Tucker Craft out, we're
looking at the potential for more looks to go elsewhere.
Watson saw a seventy five percent routeshare in Week nine.
That was up from sixty five percent in Week eight.
He hit another eleven percent target share. If he can
establish himself over the next week or two games that
(17:05):
could be without Golden and Jaden Reid, then there's some
potential for him to get some production through the end
of the year. Green Bay has the third best median
opponent in the Fantasy playoffs according to My numbers, and
they had the third best rest of season schedule for
wide receivers too, So I do think Christian Watson should
be rostered in more leagues ad Marcus Mariota. So with
(17:29):
Jayden Daniels set to miss an extended period of time,
Marcus Mariota he's back in our streaming lives. He's averaged
almost thirty rushing yards per game in his three starts
this year. He also scored a rushing touchdown Last year
in two games were relief for Daniels, we saw him
with thirty four and fifty six rushing yards. There's a
rushing floor with Marcus Mariota, and the schedule for Washington
(17:51):
doesn't look that bad either. They'll get the Lions this week,
making Mariota a viable streamer. Then they get the Dolphins, Broncos, Vikings, Giants, Eagles,
and Cowboys. I think that we're gonna see some usability
from Marcus Mariota given that rushing backbone. Let's just hope
that he gets Terry McLaurin back at some point. And
for the record, if you're thinking about Sam Darnald, I
do like Donald more than Mariota. He's just something that
(18:14):
I've talked about before. And he's rostered in half of
Yahoo leagues given he was a top streamer last week.
So if you already have someone like Sam Darnold on
your roster, you don't need to add Marcus Mariota. But
I do think Mariota is more of that traditional streamer type.
Add the Cleveland Browns defense, so because they're bye week,
(18:35):
the Browns are rostered in just thirty one percent of
Yahoo leagues and they get the Jets this week. That
game has a thirty six and a half point total.
This season, New York has been the seventh best matchup
for opposing defenses by justin fantasy points allowed, no matter
who's under center for the Jets, the Browns make plenty
of sense as a streaming choice. That's it for today's show,
though thanks Tolby for listening. If you had subscribed to
(18:57):
the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are
shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.
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