November 6, 2025 • 18 mins
JJ's been on a heater with the sleepers episode, but this week is a rough one. He still gives some waiver wire options for you to consider, though, including a few surprising wide receiver selections.
Make sure to check out LateRound.com to subscribe to the free newsletter. Want to get weekly and rest-of-season rankings while accessing the amazing Late-Round community on Discord? Become a Late-Round member today.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ Zacher
Retha j Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ
Zacharyeson in this episode ten nine of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I've been coming
on this Sleepers episode over the last month, and I've
(00:23):
opened it up the exact same way, basically saying, it
was another pretty good week for the Sleeper Show. But
it's been good for the last like four weeks or so.
I told everyone I'd be transparent at the top of
every show a few years ago, and I'm being transparent.
It's been a good month of this show. Sometimes there
are bad stretches, sometimes there are good ones. It's been
(00:44):
one of the good ones. Last week's disappointments were mostly
Tier three players. Brashard Smith had an NOFL game, Samaj
p Ryan got hurt, Jerry McNichols literally did nothing, and
the Jacksonville defense they were pretty mid. The worst pick
out of the top two tiers was maybe Aaron Rodgers.
He scored his twelve standard points and Bam Knight. He
(01:04):
didn't get the workload that many expected, though I did
say on the show I thought he was more volatile
than people realized. But there were just way more hits
than misses last week. And by hits, I mean just
generally usable performances at quarterback. Jackson Dart, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence,
Sam Darnold, they all had good weeks. Juwan Jennings scored
(01:24):
fourteen PPR points, Wandel Robinson had about the same. Mark
Andrews and Isaiah Likely were both usable. Theo Johnson was fine,
Alec Pierce had a nice day. Kyle Manungai dominated, Kareem
Hunt had a reasonable twelve and a half PPR points,
Colston Lovelin went nuts. Parker Washington scored seventeen PPR points.
The Baltimore defense was great. I mean even Michael Wilson
(01:45):
scored nine PPR points. That was his highest tally of
the season. This recent heater has been fun, but things
won't go this way all year long, and honestly, Week
ten pretty difficult week. I think we might see a
little regression, but I'll do my best, So let's do it.
(02:06):
We'll kick things off as usual with players roster and
in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues who you
might want to consider starting. I've got a couple of
quarterbacks for you in this tier. Jackson Dart is one
of them. He gets the Chicago defense that's allot of
the third most adjusted points of quarterbacks this year, and
that game has a reasonably high total. It also has
a pretty decent pace scorer. That's my way of looking
(02:27):
at how fast a game might play, given how quickly
each opponent runs their plays. Dart has been great in fantasy.
We know this. He scored at least fifteen points in
all six of his starts. He's been over nineteen point
four standard Fantasy points in five of them. He's averaging
over twenty two points per game since becoming the starter.
It's a great spot for him. Actually, I'd argue it's
(02:49):
a smash spot for him. Sam Darnold's another one that
you could look at. He's been running hot. He scored
top nine quarterback numbers and three of his last four
games and four of his last six. Data has a
twenty six point imply team total this week and Arizona
their opponent. They're totally average for quarterbacks by justin fantasy
points allowed. Teams are also throwing the ball against the
Cardinals more than their season long averages. Their pass rate
(03:12):
tends to rise by almost six percentage points when facing Arizona,
so that gives Darnold a ton of potential. Running back
is pretty brutal across the board this week. At the
time of this recording, Aaron Jones is still rostered in
eighty percent of leagues, so technically he qualifies for this
tier as long as he plays, which is not a
guarantee right now. I think he could be usable. The
(03:35):
Ravens are playing better defensively, but they've still allowed the
fifth most adjusted points to running backs this year. They've
also given up the eleventh highest adjusted target share, which
is big for Jones. He's the pass catcher out of
that backfield. As I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show,
Jones was trending towards seeing really good backfield share numbers
in Week nine before that injury. He's an OK player
(03:56):
to use, and at least he's not super gamescript dependent
like Jorge Mason. Is next on the list Kyle Manunguy.
I currently don't know if DeAndre Swift is gonna play
this week or not, but Manunguy he probably won himself
some more work with his performance last week. Again Cincinnati
even if it was against a really bad Bengals team.
(04:16):
This week, the Bears get the Giants. New York is
the second best matchup in Adusta points a lot of
running backs, and they've given up thirty three rushing yards
to running backs per game this year over expected. That's
by far the worst number in the league, or the
best if you have Kyle Manunga. So even if DeAndre
Swift goes, manunguy has a real shot to be usable
(04:38):
moving on to wide receiver. I've got two of them
for you in this tier, and they are my two
staples in this tier, Romeo Dobbs and Wandel Robinson. The
Packers are banged up, Tucker Craft is out for the year,
Matthew Golden's hurt, we know Jayden Reid's hurt. There's a
chance we see a lot of Romeo Dobbs against the Eagles.
Dobbs had a ninety three percent row participation rate in
(04:59):
Week nine. That was just the second time he's been
over the ninety percent mark this season. He's now averaged
a target share per game rate of twenty six percent
over his last six games. I bet that's higher than
you expected. The Eagles have actually been a top half
matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed,
and they've actually allowed an above average number of fantasy
(05:20):
points per game to perimeter receivers. So I like Dobbs
Wanda Robinson had a great slot matchup last week. I
think that Reid was correct. He ended the day with
a thirty four percent target share that was the second
highest of his season. He just couldn't get a lot
going on with his four point four average at the target,
so he went nine for forty six. He gets Chicago
(05:42):
this week, though the Bears have given up the second
most adjusted fantasy points to slot receivers this year, so
Robinson once again is at least a high floor option.
And look, I hate to sound like a broken record,
but Kyle Pitts he's once again in this tier two.
He's averaged a twenty six percent target share per game
rate over his life three. He's continuing to run a
route on ninety ninety five percent of Atlanta's dropbacks, and
(06:05):
the Falcons get a Colts team this week that's allowed
the fourth most adjusted fantasy points. The tight ends this
next group of players. It includes guys rostern in twenty
to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and at quarterback, I
just have JJ McCarthy in this year. There's definitely some
risk with McCarthy, it's his fourth NFL start, and Baltimore
they've been better against quarterbacks of late. Over their last
(06:28):
three Matthew Stafford scored just nine point three points, Caleb
Williams had eleven point eight Tua had eight and a
half last week. Across the larger sample, though, they're still
the tenth best matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks,
and they haven't gotten to the quarterback. According to Next
Gen Stats, they have a bottom three pressure rate in
the league. Even those games against the Dolphins in the Rams,
(06:50):
they had really low pressure rates. Now, McCarthy hasn't been
great in a clean pocket this year, but the lack
of pressure definitely can't hurt. Playing at home in doors,
having to keep paced with Lamar Jackson, I don't totally
mind him in this spot. I actually don't have any
running backs in this tier, so let's just move on
to wide receiver now. I like Wandel Robinson a good
(07:12):
bit more than his teammate Darius Slayton, but Slayton has
hit a twenty percent target share in three of his
last four, and his route share in Week nine was
ninety two percent that was his highest since Week two.
That resulted in eleven point two PPR points. Chicago's been
mostly average against perimeter receivers this year, but I'm a
little intrigued by the fact that they've allowed the ninth
(07:32):
highest deepall rate and the third highest completion percentage on
those throws. Slayton has been above a thirteen yard a
dot in all but one game this year, so maybe
he's able to capture a big play in this game.
But even if he can't, he could still be fine
and see some work. As I said on yesterday's ten
Trends episode, Alec Pierce is getting more work in that
(07:53):
Colts offense, and I do wish I called him out
in the fifty Transaction Show earlier this week after doing
more research, because even though they get Atlanta this week,
the Falcons have actually just been a little bit below
average at allowing Fantasy points to outside wide receivers. They've
also allowed a decently high rate of deep balls against
them this year. They just have defended them really well
(08:13):
at the second best rate in the league, So there's
definitely some risk with the field stretching piers, but you
can't deny the work that he's seeing a twenty five
percent target share over his last three He's seen PPR
totals of fifteen, nine and seventeen and a half over
that time, So this week he's a very high variance play.
The Buccaneers are back out of their by so Tess
(08:34):
Johnson has a shot to find your lineup. Over his
last two games, he's seen target shares of eighteen percent
and twenty five percent. Those are without Mike Evans for
the most part. Last time we saw him, he hit
a rout chair of ninety six percent. Now he gets
a new England team that's allowed the fifth most adjusted
Fantasy points to wide receivers and Tampa Bay has a
twenty five and a half point total this weekend. It's
(08:56):
a pretty good spot for tes Johnson. One of the
easier calls this I think is probably Troy Franklin. I
talked all about how he's seeing more work than Courtland
Sutton on yesterday's ten Trends episode, and that's resulted in
a twenty seven percent target shair per game rate over
his last three. Now, the Broncos get the Raiders, they
have a twenty six point imply team total and Vegas
(09:16):
they're giving up the ninth most adjusted points to wide
receivers this year. Now, all the logic that I applied
to Romeo Dobbs earlier can be applied to Christian Watson too.
Just bring it down a little bit because Watson's not
playing as much, but they may need him to play
more this week after back to back eleven percent target
share games, and we know he's a big play threat.
(09:36):
With the Eagles not playing as well against perimeter wide receivers.
I don't think he's a terrible, terrible play And then
there's Parker Washington. Brian Thomas has banged up and Jacoby
Myers just got to Jacksonville and Liam Cohen confirmed that
Parker Washington is still going to play more in the
slot even with Jacoby Myers there, And that makes sense
(09:56):
to me for the record, but that's big because he
played his high slot rate of the year last week,
where he was around sixty percent. That led to a
twenty seven percent target share. He's been at our above
a fifty percent slot rate in just two games this year.
In those games, he's seen target shares of twenty nine
percent and twenty seven percent. Those were his two highest
target shairs of the entire season. Now, Houston's definitely a
(10:20):
tough matchup. I'm not expecting the world here, but he
could be peppered with some quick looks and that makes
him a viable PPR option. Moving on to tight end
Colston Loveland. He should see a good amount of work
this week after his big breakout last week. The Bears
have a twenty six point ply team total and the
Giants their opponent. They ranked ninth and adjusted target share
allowed to tight ends, So Colson Loveland's definitely a streamer,
(10:44):
and so is THEO Johnson. In that exact same game,
He's covered that twenty percent target share mark ever since
My Elite Neighbors went down, and the Bears have given
up the ninth most adjusted Fantasy points to tight ends
this year and the tenth highest adjusted target share. So
once again, THEO Johnson works as a stream. With Rashichi
Heat out of the picture, Jiwan Johnson might become a
(11:04):
little bit more relevant again. New Orleans has just a
seventeen point IMPLY team total this week, but because of
their pace, this has the highest pace score in the
slate and Carolina their opponent. They've been pretty average matchup
wise for tight ends this year by justin points allowed.
Johnson has back to back top ten performances. He's still
running a route on about three quarters of the same
(11:25):
s dropbacks, so I think he's fine. Cardio Kade, Kate Aughton,
he can get some action this week too. We know
the Buccaneers are banged up at wide receiver. That's allowed
Auten to see about a twenty two percent target chair
over his last three. As I said earlier with Tes Johnson,
the Buccaneers have a really high implied team total this week,
(11:45):
and New England as a matchup pretty neutral against tight
ends this year. And then lastly there's Dalton Schultz. The
Jags have actually been amazing against slot wide receivers this year,
but they've struggled against tight ends. Only Cincinnati has given
up more a usted points in the position than Jacksonville has,
and the Jags are top five and adjusted target share allowed.
(12:06):
Schultz has two top seven performances over his last three. Now,
I don't love that CJ. Stroud probably or at least
might not go, but Schultz is an okay deeper option
this last year, players consist of guys roster and fewer
than twenty percent of leagues will kick it off with
Marcus Mariota. Mariota gets the Lions this week and a
game where the Commanders could be forced to pass quite
(12:27):
a bit. They need to keep pace. De Troit's been
a top half opponent for quarterbacks this year by justin
fantasy points allowed, and Mariota can get it done with
his legs. He's rushed for twenty eight, twenty and forty
yards in his three starts this year, and he has
a rushing touchdown too. I don't think he's a smash play,
but that rushing should give him a baseline. Another one
(12:48):
you could look at is Jacoby Brissett. The matchup on paper,
it doesn't look amazing, but it's also not that bad.
Seattle ranks is the seventeenth best opponent adjusted fantasy points
a lot of quarterbacks, and they've also about thirteen passing
yards over expected per game this year. Teams against the
Seahawks they're typically seeing a bump and pass rate by
about five percentage points. That's not that surprising because the
(13:11):
Seahawks are playing well. But Jacoby Bursett's also been good.
He's averaging almost twenty two points per game in his
three starts. He hasn't dipped below nineteen point eight points
in a single contest. Seattle's also struggled a little bit
against tight ends this year, and we know the Cardinals
offense largely funnels through Trey McBride, so I don't mind
Jacoby Brissett. As I said before, running back is tough
(13:33):
this week, and I don't have all the information that
I need at the moment with injuries, but I've got
a few backs for you that you might want to
consider that aren't as dependent on those injuries. I know
Jerry McNichols didn't really do anything last week, but he
is their negative game script back. They were just in
such a negative game script last week they didn't even
really care to play catchup. McNichols, though, prior to last week,
(13:55):
had targetshed of seventeen percent, ten percent, and twenty percent,
and the Commanders they're eight and a half point underdogs
against the Lions. Detroit also ranks in the top half
of the league and adjusted target share allowed to running back,
so that helps Meanwhile, an easier pick to make in
this tier is Devin Singletary. I do prefer Tyrone Tracy
still to Devin Singletary, even though Singletary played more snaps
(14:18):
last week. But Singletary did play more snaps last week.
If he gets in their sixty two percent running back
rush share, he could easily give fantasy managers a usable
week because New York, as you know by now, they
get Chicago and the Bears are the sixth best matchup
for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. They were
allowing fifteen rushing yards over expected to the position per game.
(14:39):
So Singletary definitely works. And then I also don't totally
mind Blake Koram. I mean, I definitely don't love him
because he's not doing that much through the air. But
if this game script against San Francisco becomes favorable for
the Rams, he could see some work. Since his really
bad outing against this same forty nine Ers team in
Week five, Korum has averaged a thirty seven percent running
(15:00):
back rush air per game. The forty nine Ers have
been top half in the league and adjusted points allowed
to running backs, so there could be some points for
Korum this week. But it's a very deep play at
wide receivers, the Commanders are down to Deebo, Samuel, Chris Moore,
Jalen Lane, and then maybe like Treylon Burks. Moore ran
around on eighty percent of Washington's dropbacks last week, but
(15:22):
he failed to see a target. Jalen Lane he had
a sixty six percent route chair, but he also had
a twenty four percent target chair. Lane has seen a
little bit more versatility across the line of scrimmage. He's
the younger player who's getting more experience, so while Lean
his way as more of the desperation play in this offense.
Not that I feel great about anyone, and like I said,
(15:43):
you run the risk of them running some other wide
receivers too, like Treylon Burks. That makes this even riskier.
But the Commanders get the Lions. Detroit's been below average
at stopping both slot and perimeter wide receivers on the season.
There the tenth best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed.
I really hope you don't have to play Lane, but
I'll call him out as an option. Xavier Leguet is
(16:05):
probably someone I like a little bit more. New Orleans
been a below average matchup for wide receivers this year
by justin fantasy points allowed, but that's been driven more
by their performance against slot guys, not outside guys, not
perimeter ones. We've seen them allow three points per game
to outside receivers above the average this year, when they're
three points below the average per game versus slot receivers,
(16:27):
leg gets an outside wide out who has a chance
to see like a fifteen to sixteen percent target share.
But I will say there is some risk here because
the Panthers could easily opt to use a little bit
more Jalen Coker, which in my opinion, they should be doing.
It's just that Coker has been primarily a slot player
for them, So I'm going with what they've been doing,
even though it can be changed in an instant. This
(16:49):
is seriously the toughest week of the season for this show.
No Lie, I'm gonna end the wide receiver talk with
rookie Kyle Williams. Kayshawn Boudi's banged up and Williams ended
up tying Zac Collins with twenty routes run last week
for New England, the Mario Douglas was only at thirteen.
Stefan Diggs he led the way. He was at twenty
nine Mike Vrabel talked about Kyle Williams potentially having more
(17:11):
opportunity this week in New England. They get a Tampa
Bay team that's an above average matchup for wide receivers.
Teams facing Tampa Bay also usually funnel their targets to
wide receivers. They the fifth highest adjusted target share allowed
to the position. Now at tight end in this tier,
we're always gonna have to choose between Elijah Royo or
AJ Barner in that Seahawks offense. I'm just gonna go
(17:32):
with the guy who ran eight more routes last week
and saw twice as many targets, and that's Aj Barner.
The Seahawks get the Cardinals, and Arizona has ated the
eighth most adjusted points of tight ends this year while
giving up the fourth highest adjusted target share, So I
don't mind Barner as a desperation tight end streamer. On
defense this week, the Browns are now rostered in way
(17:53):
too many leagues to shout out, So I'll go Carolina
against New Orleans as a top streaming choice, and then
you could get away with jack in Ville against Houston,
But that's a little bit of a deeper play. That's
it for today's show though, thanks Alvy for listening. If
you yet subscribe to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make
sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on
(18:14):
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.
This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ Zacher
Retha j Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ
Zacharyeson in this episode ten nine of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I've been coming
on this Sleepers episode over the last month, and I've
(00:23):
opened it up the exact same way, basically saying, it
was another pretty good week for the Sleeper Show. But
it's been good for the last like four weeks or so.
I told everyone I'd be transparent at the top of
every show a few years ago, and I'm being transparent.
It's been a good month of this show. Sometimes there
are bad stretches, sometimes there are good ones. It's been
(00:44):
one of the good ones. Last week's disappointments were mostly
Tier three players. Brashard Smith had an NOFL game, Samaj
p Ryan got hurt, Jerry McNichols literally did nothing, and
the Jacksonville defense they were pretty mid. The worst pick
out of the top two tiers was maybe Aaron Rodgers.
He scored his twelve standard points and Bam Knight. He
(01:04):
didn't get the workload that many expected, though I did
say on the show I thought he was more volatile
than people realized. But there were just way more hits
than misses last week. And by hits, I mean just
generally usable performances at quarterback. Jackson Dart, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence,
Sam Darnold, they all had good weeks. Juwan Jennings scored
(01:24):
fourteen PPR points, Wandel Robinson had about the same. Mark
Andrews and Isaiah Likely were both usable. Theo Johnson was fine,
Alec Pierce had a nice day. Kyle Manungai dominated, Kareem
Hunt had a reasonable twelve and a half PPR points,
Colston Lovelin went nuts. Parker Washington scored seventeen PPR points.
The Baltimore defense was great. I mean even Michael Wilson
(01:45):
scored nine PPR points. That was his highest tally of
the season. This recent heater has been fun, but things
won't go this way all year long, and honestly, Week
ten pretty difficult week. I think we might see a
little regression, but I'll do my best, So let's do it.
(02:06):
We'll kick things off as usual with players roster and
in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues who you
might want to consider starting. I've got a couple of
quarterbacks for you in this tier. Jackson Dart is one
of them. He gets the Chicago defense that's allot of
the third most adjusted points of quarterbacks this year, and
that game has a reasonably high total. It also has
a pretty decent pace scorer. That's my way of looking
(02:27):
at how fast a game might play, given how quickly
each opponent runs their plays. Dart has been great in fantasy.
We know this. He scored at least fifteen points in
all six of his starts. He's been over nineteen point
four standard Fantasy points in five of them. He's averaging
over twenty two points per game since becoming the starter.
It's a great spot for him. Actually, I'd argue it's
(02:49):
a smash spot for him. Sam Darnold's another one that
you could look at. He's been running hot. He scored
top nine quarterback numbers and three of his last four
games and four of his last six. Data has a
twenty six point imply team total this week and Arizona
their opponent. They're totally average for quarterbacks by justin fantasy
points allowed. Teams are also throwing the ball against the
Cardinals more than their season long averages. Their pass rate
(03:12):
tends to rise by almost six percentage points when facing Arizona,
so that gives Darnold a ton of potential. Running back
is pretty brutal across the board this week. At the
time of this recording, Aaron Jones is still rostered in
eighty percent of leagues, so technically he qualifies for this
tier as long as he plays, which is not a
guarantee right now. I think he could be usable. The
(03:35):
Ravens are playing better defensively, but they've still allowed the
fifth most adjusted points to running backs this year. They've
also given up the eleventh highest adjusted target share, which
is big for Jones. He's the pass catcher out of
that backfield. As I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show,
Jones was trending towards seeing really good backfield share numbers
in Week nine before that injury. He's an OK player
(03:56):
to use, and at least he's not super gamescript dependent
like Jorge Mason. Is next on the list Kyle Manunguy.
I currently don't know if DeAndre Swift is gonna play
this week or not, but Manunguy he probably won himself
some more work with his performance last week. Again Cincinnati
even if it was against a really bad Bengals team.
(04:16):
This week, the Bears get the Giants. New York is
the second best matchup in Adusta points a lot of
running backs, and they've given up thirty three rushing yards
to running backs per game this year over expected. That's
by far the worst number in the league, or the
best if you have Kyle Manunga. So even if DeAndre
Swift goes, manunguy has a real shot to be usable
(04:38):
moving on to wide receiver. I've got two of them
for you in this tier, and they are my two
staples in this tier, Romeo Dobbs and Wandel Robinson. The
Packers are banged up, Tucker Craft is out for the year,
Matthew Golden's hurt, we know Jayden Reid's hurt. There's a
chance we see a lot of Romeo Dobbs against the Eagles.
Dobbs had a ninety three percent row participation rate in
(04:59):
Week nine. That was just the second time he's been
over the ninety percent mark this season. He's now averaged
a target share per game rate of twenty six percent
over his last six games. I bet that's higher than
you expected. The Eagles have actually been a top half
matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed,
and they've actually allowed an above average number of fantasy
(05:20):
points per game to perimeter receivers. So I like Dobbs
Wanda Robinson had a great slot matchup last week. I
think that Reid was correct. He ended the day with
a thirty four percent target share that was the second
highest of his season. He just couldn't get a lot
going on with his four point four average at the target,
so he went nine for forty six. He gets Chicago
(05:42):
this week, though the Bears have given up the second
most adjusted fantasy points to slot receivers this year, so
Robinson once again is at least a high floor option.
And look, I hate to sound like a broken record,
but Kyle Pitts he's once again in this tier two.
He's averaged a twenty six percent target share per game
rate over his life three. He's continuing to run a
route on ninety ninety five percent of Atlanta's dropbacks, and
(06:05):
the Falcons get a Colts team this week that's allowed
the fourth most adjusted fantasy points. The tight ends this
next group of players. It includes guys rostern in twenty
to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and at quarterback, I
just have JJ McCarthy in this year. There's definitely some
risk with McCarthy, it's his fourth NFL start, and Baltimore
they've been better against quarterbacks of late. Over their last
(06:28):
three Matthew Stafford scored just nine point three points, Caleb
Williams had eleven point eight Tua had eight and a
half last week. Across the larger sample, though, they're still
the tenth best matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks,
and they haven't gotten to the quarterback. According to Next
Gen Stats, they have a bottom three pressure rate in
the league. Even those games against the Dolphins in the Rams,
(06:50):
they had really low pressure rates. Now, McCarthy hasn't been
great in a clean pocket this year, but the lack
of pressure definitely can't hurt. Playing at home in doors,
having to keep paced with Lamar Jackson, I don't totally
mind him in this spot. I actually don't have any
running backs in this tier, so let's just move on
to wide receiver now. I like Wandel Robinson a good
(07:12):
bit more than his teammate Darius Slayton, but Slayton has
hit a twenty percent target share in three of his
last four, and his route share in Week nine was
ninety two percent that was his highest since Week two.
That resulted in eleven point two PPR points. Chicago's been
mostly average against perimeter receivers this year, but I'm a
little intrigued by the fact that they've allowed the ninth
(07:32):
highest deepall rate and the third highest completion percentage on
those throws. Slayton has been above a thirteen yard a
dot in all but one game this year, so maybe
he's able to capture a big play in this game.
But even if he can't, he could still be fine
and see some work. As I said on yesterday's ten
Trends episode, Alec Pierce is getting more work in that
(07:53):
Colts offense, and I do wish I called him out
in the fifty Transaction Show earlier this week after doing
more research, because even though they get Atlanta this week,
the Falcons have actually just been a little bit below
average at allowing Fantasy points to outside wide receivers. They've
also allowed a decently high rate of deep balls against
them this year. They just have defended them really well
(08:13):
at the second best rate in the league, So there's
definitely some risk with the field stretching piers, but you
can't deny the work that he's seeing a twenty five
percent target share over his last three He's seen PPR
totals of fifteen, nine and seventeen and a half over
that time, So this week he's a very high variance play.
The Buccaneers are back out of their by so Tess
(08:34):
Johnson has a shot to find your lineup. Over his
last two games, he's seen target shares of eighteen percent
and twenty five percent. Those are without Mike Evans for
the most part. Last time we saw him, he hit
a rout chair of ninety six percent. Now he gets
a new England team that's allowed the fifth most adjusted
Fantasy points to wide receivers and Tampa Bay has a
twenty five and a half point total this weekend. It's
(08:56):
a pretty good spot for tes Johnson. One of the
easier calls this I think is probably Troy Franklin. I
talked all about how he's seeing more work than Courtland
Sutton on yesterday's ten Trends episode, and that's resulted in
a twenty seven percent target shair per game rate over
his last three. Now, the Broncos get the Raiders, they
have a twenty six point imply team total and Vegas
(09:16):
they're giving up the ninth most adjusted points to wide
receivers this year. Now, all the logic that I applied
to Romeo Dobbs earlier can be applied to Christian Watson too.
Just bring it down a little bit because Watson's not
playing as much, but they may need him to play
more this week after back to back eleven percent target
share games, and we know he's a big play threat.
(09:36):
With the Eagles not playing as well against perimeter wide receivers.
I don't think he's a terrible, terrible play And then
there's Parker Washington. Brian Thomas has banged up and Jacoby
Myers just got to Jacksonville and Liam Cohen confirmed that
Parker Washington is still going to play more in the
slot even with Jacoby Myers there, And that makes sense
(09:56):
to me for the record, but that's big because he
played his high slot rate of the year last week,
where he was around sixty percent. That led to a
twenty seven percent target share. He's been at our above
a fifty percent slot rate in just two games this year.
In those games, he's seen target shares of twenty nine
percent and twenty seven percent. Those were his two highest
target shairs of the entire season. Now, Houston's definitely a
(10:20):
tough matchup. I'm not expecting the world here, but he
could be peppered with some quick looks and that makes
him a viable PPR option. Moving on to tight end
Colston Loveland. He should see a good amount of work
this week after his big breakout last week. The Bears
have a twenty six point ply team total and the
Giants their opponent. They ranked ninth and adjusted target share
allowed to tight ends, So Colson Loveland's definitely a streamer,
(10:44):
and so is THEO Johnson. In that exact same game,
He's covered that twenty percent target share mark ever since
My Elite Neighbors went down, and the Bears have given
up the ninth most adjusted Fantasy points to tight ends
this year and the tenth highest adjusted target share. So
once again, THEO Johnson works as a stream. With Rashichi
Heat out of the picture, Jiwan Johnson might become a
(11:04):
little bit more relevant again. New Orleans has just a
seventeen point IMPLY team total this week, but because of
their pace, this has the highest pace score in the
slate and Carolina their opponent. They've been pretty average matchup
wise for tight ends this year by justin points allowed.
Johnson has back to back top ten performances. He's still
running a route on about three quarters of the same
(11:25):
s dropbacks, so I think he's fine. Cardio Kade, Kate Aughton,
he can get some action this week too. We know
the Buccaneers are banged up at wide receiver. That's allowed
Auten to see about a twenty two percent target chair
over his last three. As I said earlier with Tes Johnson,
the Buccaneers have a really high implied team total this week,
(11:45):
and New England as a matchup pretty neutral against tight
ends this year. And then lastly there's Dalton Schultz. The
Jags have actually been amazing against slot wide receivers this year,
but they've struggled against tight ends. Only Cincinnati has given
up more a usted points in the position than Jacksonville has,
and the Jags are top five and adjusted target share allowed.
(12:06):
Schultz has two top seven performances over his last three. Now,
I don't love that CJ. Stroud probably or at least
might not go, but Schultz is an okay deeper option
this last year, players consist of guys roster and fewer
than twenty percent of leagues will kick it off with
Marcus Mariota. Mariota gets the Lions this week and a
game where the Commanders could be forced to pass quite
(12:27):
a bit. They need to keep pace. De Troit's been
a top half opponent for quarterbacks this year by justin
fantasy points allowed, and Mariota can get it done with
his legs. He's rushed for twenty eight, twenty and forty
yards in his three starts this year, and he has
a rushing touchdown too. I don't think he's a smash play,
but that rushing should give him a baseline. Another one
(12:48):
you could look at is Jacoby Brissett. The matchup on paper,
it doesn't look amazing, but it's also not that bad.
Seattle ranks is the seventeenth best opponent adjusted fantasy points
a lot of quarterbacks, and they've also about thirteen passing
yards over expected per game this year. Teams against the
Seahawks they're typically seeing a bump and pass rate by
about five percentage points. That's not that surprising because the
(13:11):
Seahawks are playing well. But Jacoby Bursett's also been good.
He's averaging almost twenty two points per game in his
three starts. He hasn't dipped below nineteen point eight points
in a single contest. Seattle's also struggled a little bit
against tight ends this year, and we know the Cardinals
offense largely funnels through Trey McBride, so I don't mind
Jacoby Brissett. As I said before, running back is tough
(13:33):
this week, and I don't have all the information that
I need at the moment with injuries, but I've got
a few backs for you that you might want to
consider that aren't as dependent on those injuries. I know
Jerry McNichols didn't really do anything last week, but he
is their negative game script back. They were just in
such a negative game script last week they didn't even
really care to play catchup. McNichols, though, prior to last week,
(13:55):
had targetshed of seventeen percent, ten percent, and twenty percent,
and the Commanders they're eight and a half point underdogs
against the Lions. Detroit also ranks in the top half
of the league and adjusted target share allowed to running back,
so that helps Meanwhile, an easier pick to make in
this tier is Devin Singletary. I do prefer Tyrone Tracy
still to Devin Singletary, even though Singletary played more snaps
(14:18):
last week. But Singletary did play more snaps last week.
If he gets in their sixty two percent running back
rush share, he could easily give fantasy managers a usable
week because New York, as you know by now, they
get Chicago and the Bears are the sixth best matchup
for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. They were
allowing fifteen rushing yards over expected to the position per game.
(14:39):
So Singletary definitely works. And then I also don't totally
mind Blake Koram. I mean, I definitely don't love him
because he's not doing that much through the air. But
if this game script against San Francisco becomes favorable for
the Rams, he could see some work. Since his really
bad outing against this same forty nine Ers team in
Week five, Korum has averaged a thirty seven percent running
(15:00):
back rush air per game. The forty nine Ers have
been top half in the league and adjusted points allowed
to running backs, so there could be some points for
Korum this week. But it's a very deep play at
wide receivers, the Commanders are down to Deebo, Samuel, Chris Moore,
Jalen Lane, and then maybe like Treylon Burks. Moore ran
around on eighty percent of Washington's dropbacks last week, but
(15:22):
he failed to see a target. Jalen Lane he had
a sixty six percent route chair, but he also had
a twenty four percent target chair. Lane has seen a
little bit more versatility across the line of scrimmage. He's
the younger player who's getting more experience, so while Lean
his way as more of the desperation play in this offense.
Not that I feel great about anyone, and like I said,
(15:43):
you run the risk of them running some other wide
receivers too, like Treylon Burks. That makes this even riskier.
But the Commanders get the Lions. Detroit's been below average
at stopping both slot and perimeter wide receivers on the season.
There the tenth best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed.
I really hope you don't have to play Lane, but
I'll call him out as an option. Xavier Leguet is
(16:05):
probably someone I like a little bit more. New Orleans
been a below average matchup for wide receivers this year
by justin fantasy points allowed, but that's been driven more
by their performance against slot guys, not outside guys, not
perimeter ones. We've seen them allow three points per game
to outside receivers above the average this year, when they're
three points below the average per game versus slot receivers,
(16:27):
leg gets an outside wide out who has a chance
to see like a fifteen to sixteen percent target share.
But I will say there is some risk here because
the Panthers could easily opt to use a little bit
more Jalen Coker, which in my opinion, they should be doing.
It's just that Coker has been primarily a slot player
for them, So I'm going with what they've been doing,
even though it can be changed in an instant. This
(16:49):
is seriously the toughest week of the season for this show.
No Lie, I'm gonna end the wide receiver talk with
rookie Kyle Williams. Kayshawn Boudi's banged up and Williams ended
up tying Zac Collins with twenty routes run last week
for New England, the Mario Douglas was only at thirteen.
Stefan Diggs he led the way. He was at twenty
nine Mike Vrabel talked about Kyle Williams potentially having more
(17:11):
opportunity this week in New England. They get a Tampa
Bay team that's an above average matchup for wide receivers.
Teams facing Tampa Bay also usually funnel their targets to
wide receivers. They the fifth highest adjusted target share allowed
to the position. Now at tight end in this tier,
we're always gonna have to choose between Elijah Royo or
AJ Barner in that Seahawks offense. I'm just gonna go
(17:32):
with the guy who ran eight more routes last week
and saw twice as many targets, and that's Aj Barner.
The Seahawks get the Cardinals, and Arizona has ated the
eighth most adjusted points of tight ends this year while
giving up the fourth highest adjusted target share, So I
don't mind Barner as a desperation tight end streamer. On
defense this week, the Browns are now rostered in way
(17:53):
too many leagues to shout out, So I'll go Carolina
against New Orleans as a top streaming choice, and then
you could get away with jack in Ville against Houston,
But that's a little bit of a deeper play. That's
it for today's show though, thanks Alvy for listening. If
you yet subscribe to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make
sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on
(18:14):
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.