November 7, 2025 • 18 mins
Is Rome Odunze doomed? Is now the time to stash defenses for the fantasy playoffs? Should fantasy managers finally be excited about Marvin Harrison Jr.? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ zacheron.
What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode
ten fifty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks
for tuning in. Before I get to the mailbag questions
this week, I just want to remind you guys to
(00:23):
subscribe to the Late Round newsletter. It's absolutely free. All
you gotta do is head to Lateround dot com, click newsletter,
and submit your email address. That's it. In that newsletter.
During the season, you get the fifteen transactions email, you'll
get the weekly data dump that I publish on Twitter
and Blue Sky, and you'll get a nice recap of
everything from David Kitchen. At the end of the week.
(00:44):
Out of season, I send out studies. I do other
research articles that I send out in that newsletter all
the time. That's Lateround dot com. And then click newsletter. Okay,
now let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question
this week is from card on Patreon. It says, I
saw you still have a Donsay ranked as a wide
receiver one this week feels tough to just send him
(01:06):
back out there after a bagel against Cincinnati's defense. It
feels like he just hasn't been a priority for that
offense since the bye, But I would love to believe
he's coming back. What's giving you that confidence to keep
him ranked up there. There's actually a lot to unpack here.
Let's first just start with a Dunzay and what's been
going on with him. The Bears had a week five by,
(01:26):
so they played weeks one through four, they had a
buy and then they played since then. That gives us
a really nice and clean four games split, four games
pre by, four games post by. In the pre by games,
a Dounday was averaging a twenty seven percent target chair
per game rate and nineteen point nine PPR points per
game post by. Those numbers have fallen to twenty percent
(01:48):
and seven point two. That's a pretty dramatic shift. Now,
it should be noted that a dounsay, has been playing
through a heel injury. I don't want to completely dismiss that,
but there are some secondary numbers here that don't paint
the most favorable picture. For one, I've talked about this before,
but he's seen a fifty seven percent catchable targets rate
over his last four That was sixty seven percent during
(02:10):
his first four but also Fantasy Points data, it shows
that Adunesay's first red target share it's fallen from thirty
two percent to just eighteen percent in these four game splits.
And on top of that, the Bears have just been
more run heavy. From weeks one to four they ranked tenth,
and drop backs over expected rate they've been twenty seventh
over their last four. Now, to be fair, last week
(02:33):
a Dunday had a first read target share of just
ten and a half percent. That's bringing down these numbers
quite a bit. Now they're still lower than the first
four weeks, but maybe not quite as low as they
initially sound like. In week eight, his first red target
share was still a solid twenty eight percent. But people
keep talking about that Cincinnati matchup like he should have
gone off, and yes, he should have had a much
(02:54):
much better game. I'm not really defending his poor performance,
which included a pair of drops. But DJ Turner has
been really good for Cincinnati this year. I talked about
that in the fifty Transaction Show earlier this week. It's
not as good of a matchup, especially in hindsight, as
people generally think. But look, this is all not really
that good for Romadunza, But I'm willing to guess the
(03:15):
truth it lies somewhere in the middle that the first
four weeks they were a little bit fluky, even though
I do think he's a good player, And in the
last four they just really had some lows that are
gonna be tough to repeat. I have a DOUNSA right
in line with consensus this week at wide receiver eleven,
but I could rank them all the way down to
like wide receiver thirteen to like the wide receiver fifteen range.
(03:36):
Just give them the way my tears are set up.
It's really just the fact that we've got teams on
by teams with really good wide receivers, and the Bears
have a good matchup. They have a really good team
total too. But yeah, these are all things to be
concerned about with Romadunze right now. And remember Luther Burden
was signedlined last week with a concussion. I still think
there's a legitimate chance that we see him gain a
(03:57):
larger role as the season goes on. That's gonna hurt
a Domide's a key as most but any talented player
seeing more work will impact everyone else in that offense.
So the trend is concerning, but I don't think Week
nine is a lock to happen every single week. It
was a tough matchup, and just the week prior things
looked fine for Romadounze. I just think we're staring at
(04:19):
more volatility now than we were at the beginning of
the year because the offense is just prioritizing other players more,
and it also doesn't help that they've leaned more on
the run. This next question is also from Patreon's from Andre.
It says, Hey, JJ, for those of us likely to
make the playoffs, is it too early to stash defenses?
(04:39):
If not, are there any you would recommend? Thanks? So,
I answer a question like this one once a year,
and this is my once per year time answering it.
My stance is that I believe people overrate the whole
stashing defenses thing for a few reasons. Number One, defenses
are volatile. Not only could that defense just not be
in as good of a spot once the playoffs actually hit,
(05:02):
but the way defenses score, they're not amazingly predictable. You
can stream and you can come away with a really
strong defensive performance in fantasy through streaming. I'm talking like
defense two in points per game defense three in points
per game. We do that every year over on Living
the Stream. That's not what I'm talking about here. Part
of the reason you can do that is because even
(05:23):
good defenses have bad fantasy performances, So it's not that
hard to just make up for that by using defenses
against bad offenses. And there's obviously some luck involved here.
Like a defense gets an interception, they just happen to
return that for a touchdown. That's a huge turnaround for
your fantasy team, or a special teams unit returning a kick.
(05:45):
There's luck involved with turnovers in general. We know that
defensive performances can be volatile, so even if you love
the matchup, it's not like it's a guarantee that that
defense is going to score a ton of points. Number two,
there's a cost in holding that defense on your bench.
If you're stashing a random defense, that means you're not
(06:05):
stashing something else, like a running back handcuff, and the
upside of that handcuff far out weighs the upside of
that defense in a given week. And then number three,
don't underestimate your ability to find a defense on the
waiver wire, maybe just like a week before the playoffs
or even during the playoffs. Remember that things change in
the NFL, and what looks like a mediocre matchup right
(06:27):
now could actually be a good matchup later in the season,
like if there's a quarterback injury. And also, don't forget
that in most leagues, when the playoffs hit, you're competing
with fewer teams in your league on the waiver wire.
That makes it easier to get a streaming defense. So
I think week ten is way way too early to
(06:48):
stash a defense. Week thirteen, week fourteen, fine, but We've
got a long way to go still, and I'd rather
use that bench spot on a more valuable position with
a whole lot more upside. This best question is from
Patreon is from Axel. It says, what do you think
about Marvin Harrison Junior now that Jacoby Brissett seems to
be the Cardinals starter for the rest of the season.
(07:11):
I've seen a lot of pro Marvin Harrison Junior talk
of my timeline this week after his performance against the Cowboys,
and it really was an awesome performance. I think Marvin
Harrison Junior is a good wide receiver, but I also
think that we have to remember that Dallas. It's quite
literally the best matchup imaginable for wide receivers, specifically perimeter
wide receivers. Harrison finished Week nine with a thirty four
(07:33):
point five percent target share that was by far the
highest of his season. He scored twenty two point six
PPR points that was the best of his season. Two.
He played with Jacoby Brissett the game prior when they
faced the Packers, and maybe his concussion from the previous
week maybe it played a role there, but he had
just an eighteen percent target share and fewer than eight
(07:53):
PPR points. So like, for as good as he was
in Week nine, I'm not just ready to say, Okay,
this is his team now. He's just gonna dominate rest
of season. According to Fantasy Points Data, Marv had a
first red target share of fifty six percent against the
Cowboys fifty six percent in Week seven. The previous game
that he played, that number was about twenty seven percent,
(08:15):
which for the record with Kyler this year, Harrison Junior
was at like a twenty percent first read target shair.
So things are getting better, I would say in this
small sample, this is an upgrade overall for sure, Like
even when you adjust for the context of that Dallas game. Yeah,
I highly doubt that we see that week in and
week out, but it's good that we have multiple games
(08:35):
now where he's getting looked at first and where his
target shairs have been usable. The nice question is what
about rest of season? What about moving forward? And according
to my numbers, Arizona has a very average rest of
season schedule in the Fantasy playoffs, though they get the
Texans in Week fifteen, that's a tough matchup. They get
the Falcons in Week sixteen, which has not been the
(08:56):
best matchup in the world for wide receivers this year,
and then Cincinnati in Week seventeen. I just talked about
how wide receivers don't automatically dominate against the Bengals. So
I don't know. I'm excited because I do think Persett
is an upgrade for this offense right now, but I'm
tempering my expectations if people think that like last week
is gonna happen again each and every week. If he
(09:17):
was at twelve and a half PPR points per game
with Kyler, maybe we see that jump up by like
a point, maybe a point and a half with Jacoby Brissett.
That seems reasonable. To me. The best question from Joe
on Patreon. It says is Luke Musgrave trash. I just
traded Gaston last week because I already had Craft scrambling
(09:37):
for a tight end. First off, that is some terrible luck. Second, No,
he's not trash. He's just not Tucker Craft. We haven't
really seen Luke Musgrave in a significant role since his
rookie season. This year, he has just one game with
a fifty percent route share, and it was at fifty percent.
He saw nine percent target share in that game. Last year,
(09:59):
he had one game with a fifty percent route share,
it was at fifty two percent. He hit a five
percent target shair in that game. His rookie year, though
he played frequently as Green Bay's main pass catching tight end,
he was a rookie, so we have to take all
this with a grain of salt. But he had eight
games with at least a seventy percent route share. He
was often in the teens with his target share, and
(10:19):
he hit a twenty percent target share just once again.
He was a rookie that year, and I don't think
that he was a bad prospect coming out at all.
He just is clearly a downgrade from Tucker Craft, because
most tight ends would be a downgrade from Tucker Craft.
Like Craft was good in fantasy football because of what
he can do after the catch. He's got that George
(10:40):
Kittle ability in him. He's the current tight end leader
and yards after catch over expected, and he ranked behind
only George Kittle last year within that metric. And that's
really key because it means he's going to be really
efficient per catch, and he has been. But that also
means that he can get away with some lower target
share games and still be fantasy viable. I don't think
(11:02):
people realize that Tucker Craft only has three games this
year with a twenty percent target chair, which honestly should
be a crime. But he's a twenty percent target chair
per game rate when you exclude last week when he
was hurt. Luke Musgrave is not as good of a player.
I don't think we can assume that he sees the
same kind of target heare that Tucker Craft was seeing,
(11:22):
especially as the Packers' wide receivers get healthier. And if
you're not getting the same yak profile, how can we
be so confident that Luke Muskrave is going to be
like a week in week out tight end one, someone
who can give you spiked weeks, who can find the
end zone for sure. I just think he's part of
that high end tight end two streaming group right now,
and there's a lot of those players. You can add him,
(11:45):
you can see what he's about, But that should be
more of the expectation like a high end tight end two,
even a mid range tight end two. And if he
exceeds those expectations, great, But I don't think that you
should be sitting here with Luke Muskgrave today thinking that
you have your answer at tight end because very few
tight ends can do what Tucker Craft can do, and
(12:07):
Craft while he was an answer, it took a lot
for him to be that answer. This esquorse is from
at XL nine px on Twitter. It says, hey, JJ,
I'm currently six and three and in second place. I
was just offered to Marion Hampton for my Jalen Warren.
Should I accept? Hampton is rumored back week thirteen. I'm
(12:29):
afraid he gets shut down. Though I won't lie. The
quotes surrounding of Mariy and Hampton this week, they're not
exactly getting me excited. When you look at the reporting
on this every news site is saying that Jim Harbass
said that he doesn't expect Hampton to return until after
their week twelve by, which is true. But I think
the way that people interpret that, they seem to think
it means Hampton is just going to be back in
(12:50):
week thirteen. But what Harbass said was that he doesn't
expect Hampton's activation window to be opened until after the
week twelve by. That doesn't I mean week thirteen. It
just means after the bye. It doesn't mean that Hampton
will absolutely be back after that buye. Could he be, yeah,
of course, but that's adding more risk to your team
(13:12):
if you're solely buying into a week thirteen return. And
when he's back, he's coming back to a banged up
offensive line and the potential for a little bit more
of a split than what we were seeing before he
got injured. Look, you guys know, I love Amar and Hampton,
and if you can send off some bench players to
get him, fine, But I would imagine Jalen Warren is
starting for your team. And just because you're in second
(13:34):
place now does not mean that you're a lock for
a first round by in your league. And those byes
are very very important. Not only that, even when Hampton's back,
Warren could just outscore him. He's seeing a great workload.
So in my rest of season rankings, which are available
on Patreon, I've got Warren well ahead of Hampton. There's
(13:55):
some concern about Warren, which I'll get to in a second,
but I don't think this is a move that I
would currently make. The last question this week is an
email from Magic mike Ff on Twitter. I know that's confusing,
but he signed the email with his Twitter handle. It
says hijj longtime fan, first time question. In the past,
(14:15):
I've heard you talk about introducing variants if your team
is bad or if you lost starters. I've lost Hampton,
neighbors and craft on a myriad of rosters that were good.
If you were in that situation, who are some high variants,
affordable guys you may target this week, assuming you were
on the playoff bubble, and how would you approach it
as a concept considering we're still aiming to get first,
(14:37):
not just fifth. Magic mike Ff, I think one thing
to keep in mind here is that you don't need
to like find players who are super super volatile, who
are either zeros or their twenties. You don't need to
do that. If you're in this kind of situation, you
can do that, but you don't have to. Instead, you
might want to find players who have good schedules upcoming,
(14:59):
but maybe worst schedules in the fantasy playoffs, and you
can even mention that to the people that you're negotiating with.
I said, I'd talk about Jalen Warren again, he's a
perfect example of this. The Steelers get the Chargers, Bengals, Bears, Bills, Ravens,
and Dolphins over their next six games. That's a great
schedule for Jalen Warren. But then it's the Lions and
(15:19):
the Browns to close out the fantasy season. So someone
with Warren, maybe they're a one lost team. Hypothetically, they
might want to think more deeply about those weeks sixteen
and seventeen matchups, maybe even sell high. But someone who's
more of a fringe team, more of a fringe playoff team,
Warren could smash over the next month and a half.
(15:40):
And generally speaking, I don't think Jalen Warren is a cell.
I think he's more of a by than a cell.
And then there's also injury stuff. Aaron Jones is a
great example of this. Jones isn't getting in practices, but
he said that he's going to play on Sunday at
the time of this recording. That's my general expectation. So
that injury that he has, it can make him more
approachable when trying to trade for him, And honestly, most
(16:03):
managers just don't really care about Aaron Jones right now.
And then on the flip side, you can lean into
injuries that are currently happening that are giving players a
more short term boost. Now I'm recording this on Thursday,
I have no idea if m Andre Stevenson's going to
play this weekend or not. But Trayvon Henderson, the Patriots
actually have the best schedule over the next four weeks
(16:24):
for running backs according to my numbers. They get the Bucks, Jets, Bengals,
and Giants before thereby Kamani Videll, maybe you want to
lean into last week of just being a bad game
and that Hampton is more injured than what's being reported,
So maybe Kamani Viadell is something that you want to
target right now too. At wide receiver. Here are some
(16:45):
teams with good short term schedules that might have affordable
pass catchers. Now I'm talking median opponent by adjusted Fantasy
points allowed over the next four weeks, So it could
be three games if one of those teams is a
bye in that four week stretch. But we've got the Giants,
the Eagles, if you could buy low on Devonte Smith
and aj Brown for whatever reason. Denver's another one, but
(17:06):
they do play on Thursday night and you won't hear
this until Friday, and then maybe even Tampa Bay like
a Tesz Johnson type, their schedule isn't amazing, but it's
slightly above average. So those are just some names to
think about. But like I said, you can obviously lean
into the profiles that are more boom bust, maybe guys
who haven't worked out this year but have gotten it
(17:26):
done in the past, like Jamison Williams. Detroit actually has
a pretty good short term schedule too, but he obviously
is a high variance player, but maybe some of that
favorable variants hits more often. That's how I generally look
at this stuff, though. It's a great exercise to go through.
You evaluate your own team, you see where it's at,
you see what you might need, and then you think
(17:47):
through situations that may be better now or maybe better later,
but hopefully some of those names will get you headed
in the right direction. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you get
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are best streeting for it pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening
(18:10):
to everyone. As usual, I got a Late Round Perspectives
episode dropping later today, hope you give that a listen,
and then I'll be live on YouTube YouTube dot com
slash at LATEROUNDFF. I'll be live at one pm Eastern
with David Kitchen to do the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,
and if you miss that show, it'll drop in this
podcast feed tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend everyone, I'll
(18:32):
catch you next week.
This is the Late with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ zacheron.
What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode
ten fifty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks
for tuning in. Before I get to the mailbag questions
this week, I just want to remind you guys to
(00:23):
subscribe to the Late Round newsletter. It's absolutely free. All
you gotta do is head to Lateround dot com, click newsletter,
and submit your email address. That's it. In that newsletter.
During the season, you get the fifteen transactions email, you'll
get the weekly data dump that I publish on Twitter
and Blue Sky, and you'll get a nice recap of
everything from David Kitchen. At the end of the week.
(00:44):
Out of season, I send out studies. I do other
research articles that I send out in that newsletter all
the time. That's Lateround dot com. And then click newsletter. Okay,
now let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question
this week is from card on Patreon. It says, I
saw you still have a Donsay ranked as a wide
receiver one this week feels tough to just send him
(01:06):
back out there after a bagel against Cincinnati's defense. It
feels like he just hasn't been a priority for that
offense since the bye, But I would love to believe
he's coming back. What's giving you that confidence to keep
him ranked up there. There's actually a lot to unpack here.
Let's first just start with a Dunzay and what's been
going on with him. The Bears had a week five by,
(01:26):
so they played weeks one through four, they had a
buy and then they played since then. That gives us
a really nice and clean four games split, four games
pre by, four games post by. In the pre by games,
a Dounday was averaging a twenty seven percent target chair
per game rate and nineteen point nine PPR points per
game post by. Those numbers have fallen to twenty percent
(01:48):
and seven point two. That's a pretty dramatic shift. Now,
it should be noted that a dounsay, has been playing
through a heel injury. I don't want to completely dismiss that,
but there are some secondary numbers here that don't paint
the most favorable picture. For one, I've talked about this before,
but he's seen a fifty seven percent catchable targets rate
over his last four That was sixty seven percent during
(02:10):
his first four but also Fantasy Points data, it shows
that Adunesay's first red target share it's fallen from thirty
two percent to just eighteen percent in these four game splits.
And on top of that, the Bears have just been
more run heavy. From weeks one to four they ranked tenth,
and drop backs over expected rate they've been twenty seventh
over their last four. Now, to be fair, last week
(02:33):
a Dunday had a first read target share of just
ten and a half percent. That's bringing down these numbers
quite a bit. Now they're still lower than the first
four weeks, but maybe not quite as low as they
initially sound like. In week eight, his first red target
share was still a solid twenty eight percent. But people
keep talking about that Cincinnati matchup like he should have
gone off, and yes, he should have had a much
(02:54):
much better game. I'm not really defending his poor performance,
which included a pair of drops. But DJ Turner has
been really good for Cincinnati this year. I talked about
that in the fifty Transaction Show earlier this week. It's
not as good of a matchup, especially in hindsight, as
people generally think. But look, this is all not really
that good for Romadunza, But I'm willing to guess the
(03:15):
truth it lies somewhere in the middle that the first
four weeks they were a little bit fluky, even though
I do think he's a good player, And in the
last four they just really had some lows that are
gonna be tough to repeat. I have a DOUNSA right
in line with consensus this week at wide receiver eleven,
but I could rank them all the way down to
like wide receiver thirteen to like the wide receiver fifteen range.
(03:36):
Just give them the way my tears are set up.
It's really just the fact that we've got teams on
by teams with really good wide receivers, and the Bears
have a good matchup. They have a really good team
total too. But yeah, these are all things to be
concerned about with Romadunze right now. And remember Luther Burden
was signedlined last week with a concussion. I still think
there's a legitimate chance that we see him gain a
(03:57):
larger role as the season goes on. That's gonna hurt
a Domide's a key as most but any talented player
seeing more work will impact everyone else in that offense.
So the trend is concerning, but I don't think Week
nine is a lock to happen every single week. It
was a tough matchup, and just the week prior things
looked fine for Romadounze. I just think we're staring at
(04:19):
more volatility now than we were at the beginning of
the year because the offense is just prioritizing other players more,
and it also doesn't help that they've leaned more on
the run. This next question is also from Patreon's from Andre.
It says, Hey, JJ, for those of us likely to
make the playoffs, is it too early to stash defenses?
(04:39):
If not, are there any you would recommend? Thanks? So,
I answer a question like this one once a year,
and this is my once per year time answering it.
My stance is that I believe people overrate the whole
stashing defenses thing for a few reasons. Number One, defenses
are volatile. Not only could that defense just not be
in as good of a spot once the playoffs actually hit,
(05:02):
but the way defenses score, they're not amazingly predictable. You
can stream and you can come away with a really
strong defensive performance in fantasy through streaming. I'm talking like
defense two in points per game defense three in points
per game. We do that every year over on Living
the Stream. That's not what I'm talking about here. Part
of the reason you can do that is because even
(05:23):
good defenses have bad fantasy performances, So it's not that
hard to just make up for that by using defenses
against bad offenses. And there's obviously some luck involved here.
Like a defense gets an interception, they just happen to
return that for a touchdown. That's a huge turnaround for
your fantasy team, or a special teams unit returning a kick.
(05:45):
There's luck involved with turnovers in general. We know that
defensive performances can be volatile, so even if you love
the matchup, it's not like it's a guarantee that that
defense is going to score a ton of points. Number two,
there's a cost in holding that defense on your bench.
If you're stashing a random defense, that means you're not
(06:05):
stashing something else, like a running back handcuff, and the
upside of that handcuff far out weighs the upside of
that defense in a given week. And then number three,
don't underestimate your ability to find a defense on the
waiver wire, maybe just like a week before the playoffs
or even during the playoffs. Remember that things change in
the NFL, and what looks like a mediocre matchup right
(06:27):
now could actually be a good matchup later in the season,
like if there's a quarterback injury. And also, don't forget
that in most leagues, when the playoffs hit, you're competing
with fewer teams in your league on the waiver wire.
That makes it easier to get a streaming defense. So
I think week ten is way way too early to
(06:48):
stash a defense. Week thirteen, week fourteen, fine, but We've
got a long way to go still, and I'd rather
use that bench spot on a more valuable position with
a whole lot more upside. This best question is from
Patreon is from Axel. It says, what do you think
about Marvin Harrison Junior now that Jacoby Brissett seems to
be the Cardinals starter for the rest of the season.
(07:11):
I've seen a lot of pro Marvin Harrison Junior talk
of my timeline this week after his performance against the Cowboys,
and it really was an awesome performance. I think Marvin
Harrison Junior is a good wide receiver, but I also
think that we have to remember that Dallas. It's quite
literally the best matchup imaginable for wide receivers, specifically perimeter
wide receivers. Harrison finished Week nine with a thirty four
(07:33):
point five percent target share that was by far the
highest of his season. He scored twenty two point six
PPR points that was the best of his season. Two.
He played with Jacoby Brissett the game prior when they
faced the Packers, and maybe his concussion from the previous
week maybe it played a role there, but he had
just an eighteen percent target share and fewer than eight
(07:53):
PPR points. So like, for as good as he was
in Week nine, I'm not just ready to say, Okay,
this is his team now. He's just gonna dominate rest
of season. According to Fantasy Points Data, Marv had a
first red target share of fifty six percent against the
Cowboys fifty six percent in Week seven. The previous game
that he played, that number was about twenty seven percent,
(08:15):
which for the record with Kyler this year, Harrison Junior
was at like a twenty percent first read target shair.
So things are getting better, I would say in this
small sample, this is an upgrade overall for sure, Like
even when you adjust for the context of that Dallas game. Yeah,
I highly doubt that we see that week in and
week out, but it's good that we have multiple games
(08:35):
now where he's getting looked at first and where his
target shairs have been usable. The nice question is what
about rest of season? What about moving forward? And according
to my numbers, Arizona has a very average rest of
season schedule in the Fantasy playoffs, though they get the
Texans in Week fifteen, that's a tough matchup. They get
the Falcons in Week sixteen, which has not been the
(08:56):
best matchup in the world for wide receivers this year,
and then Cincinnati in Week seventeen. I just talked about
how wide receivers don't automatically dominate against the Bengals. So
I don't know. I'm excited because I do think Persett
is an upgrade for this offense right now, but I'm
tempering my expectations if people think that like last week
is gonna happen again each and every week. If he
(09:17):
was at twelve and a half PPR points per game
with Kyler, maybe we see that jump up by like
a point, maybe a point and a half with Jacoby Brissett.
That seems reasonable. To me. The best question from Joe
on Patreon. It says is Luke Musgrave trash. I just
traded Gaston last week because I already had Craft scrambling
(09:37):
for a tight end. First off, that is some terrible luck. Second, No,
he's not trash. He's just not Tucker Craft. We haven't
really seen Luke Musgrave in a significant role since his
rookie season. This year, he has just one game with
a fifty percent route share, and it was at fifty percent.
He saw nine percent target share in that game. Last year,
(09:59):
he had one game with a fifty percent route share,
it was at fifty two percent. He hit a five
percent target shair in that game. His rookie year, though
he played frequently as Green Bay's main pass catching tight end,
he was a rookie, so we have to take all
this with a grain of salt. But he had eight
games with at least a seventy percent route share. He
was often in the teens with his target share, and
(10:19):
he hit a twenty percent target share just once again.
He was a rookie that year, and I don't think
that he was a bad prospect coming out at all.
He just is clearly a downgrade from Tucker Craft, because
most tight ends would be a downgrade from Tucker Craft.
Like Craft was good in fantasy football because of what
he can do after the catch. He's got that George
(10:40):
Kittle ability in him. He's the current tight end leader
and yards after catch over expected, and he ranked behind
only George Kittle last year within that metric. And that's
really key because it means he's going to be really
efficient per catch, and he has been. But that also
means that he can get away with some lower target
share games and still be fantasy viable. I don't think
(11:02):
people realize that Tucker Craft only has three games this
year with a twenty percent target chair, which honestly should
be a crime. But he's a twenty percent target chair
per game rate when you exclude last week when he
was hurt. Luke Musgrave is not as good of a player.
I don't think we can assume that he sees the
same kind of target heare that Tucker Craft was seeing,
(11:22):
especially as the Packers' wide receivers get healthier. And if
you're not getting the same yak profile, how can we
be so confident that Luke Muskrave is going to be
like a week in week out tight end one, someone
who can give you spiked weeks, who can find the
end zone for sure. I just think he's part of
that high end tight end two streaming group right now,
and there's a lot of those players. You can add him,
(11:45):
you can see what he's about, But that should be
more of the expectation like a high end tight end two,
even a mid range tight end two. And if he
exceeds those expectations, great, But I don't think that you
should be sitting here with Luke Muskgrave today thinking that
you have your answer at tight end because very few
tight ends can do what Tucker Craft can do, and
(12:07):
Craft while he was an answer, it took a lot
for him to be that answer. This esquorse is from
at XL nine px on Twitter. It says, hey, JJ,
I'm currently six and three and in second place. I
was just offered to Marion Hampton for my Jalen Warren.
Should I accept? Hampton is rumored back week thirteen. I'm
(12:29):
afraid he gets shut down. Though I won't lie. The
quotes surrounding of Mariy and Hampton this week, they're not
exactly getting me excited. When you look at the reporting
on this every news site is saying that Jim Harbass
said that he doesn't expect Hampton to return until after
their week twelve by, which is true. But I think
the way that people interpret that, they seem to think
it means Hampton is just going to be back in
(12:50):
week thirteen. But what Harbass said was that he doesn't
expect Hampton's activation window to be opened until after the
week twelve by. That doesn't I mean week thirteen. It
just means after the bye. It doesn't mean that Hampton
will absolutely be back after that buye. Could he be, yeah,
of course, but that's adding more risk to your team
(13:12):
if you're solely buying into a week thirteen return. And
when he's back, he's coming back to a banged up
offensive line and the potential for a little bit more
of a split than what we were seeing before he
got injured. Look, you guys know, I love Amar and Hampton,
and if you can send off some bench players to
get him, fine, But I would imagine Jalen Warren is
starting for your team. And just because you're in second
(13:34):
place now does not mean that you're a lock for
a first round by in your league. And those byes
are very very important. Not only that, even when Hampton's back,
Warren could just outscore him. He's seeing a great workload.
So in my rest of season rankings, which are available
on Patreon, I've got Warren well ahead of Hampton. There's
(13:55):
some concern about Warren, which I'll get to in a second,
but I don't think this is a move that I
would currently make. The last question this week is an
email from Magic mike Ff on Twitter. I know that's confusing,
but he signed the email with his Twitter handle. It
says hijj longtime fan, first time question. In the past,
(14:15):
I've heard you talk about introducing variants if your team
is bad or if you lost starters. I've lost Hampton,
neighbors and craft on a myriad of rosters that were good.
If you were in that situation, who are some high variants,
affordable guys you may target this week, assuming you were
on the playoff bubble, and how would you approach it
as a concept considering we're still aiming to get first,
(14:37):
not just fifth. Magic mike Ff, I think one thing
to keep in mind here is that you don't need
to like find players who are super super volatile, who
are either zeros or their twenties. You don't need to
do that. If you're in this kind of situation, you
can do that, but you don't have to. Instead, you
might want to find players who have good schedules upcoming,
(14:59):
but maybe worst schedules in the fantasy playoffs, and you
can even mention that to the people that you're negotiating with.
I said, I'd talk about Jalen Warren again, he's a
perfect example of this. The Steelers get the Chargers, Bengals, Bears, Bills, Ravens,
and Dolphins over their next six games. That's a great
schedule for Jalen Warren. But then it's the Lions and
(15:19):
the Browns to close out the fantasy season. So someone
with Warren, maybe they're a one lost team. Hypothetically, they
might want to think more deeply about those weeks sixteen
and seventeen matchups, maybe even sell high. But someone who's
more of a fringe team, more of a fringe playoff team,
Warren could smash over the next month and a half.
(15:40):
And generally speaking, I don't think Jalen Warren is a cell.
I think he's more of a by than a cell.
And then there's also injury stuff. Aaron Jones is a
great example of this. Jones isn't getting in practices, but
he said that he's going to play on Sunday at
the time of this recording. That's my general expectation. So
that injury that he has, it can make him more
approachable when trying to trade for him, And honestly, most
(16:03):
managers just don't really care about Aaron Jones right now.
And then on the flip side, you can lean into
injuries that are currently happening that are giving players a
more short term boost. Now I'm recording this on Thursday,
I have no idea if m Andre Stevenson's going to
play this weekend or not. But Trayvon Henderson, the Patriots
actually have the best schedule over the next four weeks
(16:24):
for running backs according to my numbers. They get the Bucks, Jets, Bengals,
and Giants before thereby Kamani Videll, maybe you want to
lean into last week of just being a bad game
and that Hampton is more injured than what's being reported,
So maybe Kamani Viadell is something that you want to
target right now too. At wide receiver. Here are some
(16:45):
teams with good short term schedules that might have affordable
pass catchers. Now I'm talking median opponent by adjusted Fantasy
points allowed over the next four weeks, So it could
be three games if one of those teams is a
bye in that four week stretch. But we've got the Giants,
the Eagles, if you could buy low on Devonte Smith
and aj Brown for whatever reason. Denver's another one, but
(17:06):
they do play on Thursday night and you won't hear
this until Friday, and then maybe even Tampa Bay like
a Tesz Johnson type, their schedule isn't amazing, but it's
slightly above average. So those are just some names to
think about. But like I said, you can obviously lean
into the profiles that are more boom bust, maybe guys
who haven't worked out this year but have gotten it
(17:26):
done in the past, like Jamison Williams. Detroit actually has
a pretty good short term schedule too, but he obviously
is a high variance player, but maybe some of that
favorable variants hits more often. That's how I generally look
at this stuff, though. It's a great exercise to go through.
You evaluate your own team, you see where it's at,
you see what you might need, and then you think
(17:47):
through situations that may be better now or maybe better later,
but hopefully some of those names will get you headed
in the right direction. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you get
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are best streeting for it pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening
(18:10):
to everyone. As usual, I got a Late Round Perspectives
episode dropping later today, hope you give that a listen,
and then I'll be live on YouTube YouTube dot com
slash at LATEROUNDFF. I'll be live at one pm Eastern
with David Kitchen to do the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,
and if you miss that show, it'll drop in this
podcast feed tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend everyone, I'll
(18:32):
catch you next week.
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