November 11, 2025 • 18 mins
On this week's 15 Transactions episode, JJ talks about TreVeyon Henderson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Luther Burden, and more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson.
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode
ten fifty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. I won't bore you with anything
To open up today's show. It's a super important time
(00:24):
of year. Trade deadlines are about to hit and we've
got to get these rosters ready for the fantasy playoffs.
So let's talk fifteen transactions for Week eleven and Luthor Burden.
Alamnez A Kias has run ahead of Luther Burden for
most of the season, despite the fact that he's dead
last on the team by a wide margin in yards
(00:44):
per route run Luthor Burden, according Next Gen Stats, he's
getting a full yard of separation per target over Zakias
this year. His YAK over expected profile is better too.
Burden's a young, explosive wide receiver who scored really, really
well in the ZAP model. I really hope the Bears
start to give him more work and they might because
(01:04):
DJ Moore suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday against the Giants.
In turn, Burton had his highest rout chair of the season,
which was forty nine percent. That's still not high enough,
there's no doubt about that, but it's moving in the
right direction. Burton ended up catching all three of his
targets for fifty one yards. If DJ Moore were to
miss some time, Burden would get more run in that offense,
(01:25):
there's no doubt. But even if he doesn't, both data
and the eye test suggest that Burden should be playing
more than Alamide's a kias right now. Burton's the right
type of player to have on your bench this time
of year. By Lamar Jackson. Understandably, the fantasy football world,
they're going to tell you to buy Derrick Henry this week.
(01:48):
He hasn't scored a touchdown a couple of games, and
he was vaulted by Justice Hill in Week ten. That
touchdown that came on a hurry up play. He'll just
happen to be the running back that was on the
field at that time. So if you can truly buy
low on Derrick Henry, that's not a bad idea. You
can go for it. Just don't forget about Lamar Jackson.
Jackson hasn't done his typical insane things since returning from
(02:10):
his injury. A couple of weeks ago. He's averages twenty
five rushing yards per game over his last two, which
are two games after that injury. Before the hamstring injury,
he was averaging forty one and a half rushing yards
per game. But like, think about this for a second,
did we really expect him to run that much coming
off the injury? In Week nine he was just getting
up to speed, and then this past week he faced
(02:31):
a reasonable Minnesota front and he also rushed for thirty
six yards. He just only found the end zone once
through the air. Baltimore's rest of season quarterback schedule, it's
arguably the best one in fantasy football. A matchup against
Cleveland this week. It's not great, so you could always
wait on this transaction if you want, But then they
get the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals again, Patriots, and Packers
(02:56):
to end the fantasy season. The only team that really
scares me there maybe is Pittsburgh. Maybe, but that's only
because the Steelers have played Jackson well in the past,
and that game doesn't come in the fantasy playoffs either.
If the Jackson manager in your league's feeling a little
bit iffy after that QB two outing in week ten,
maybe you can get him in a nice price. Ad
(03:20):
Alec Pierce. So I shouted out Alec Pierce on a
couple of episodes last week. The ten Trends episode talked
about him, The Sleeper Show talked about him, and because
of that, I probably just should have talked about him
on the fifteen Transaction Show after his Week ten performance,
though he definitely deserves a shout. Pierce now has thirty
five targets over the last four weeks. Michael Pittman, a
(03:42):
player that everyone should like in fantasy football, is at
thirty two. During that same stretch, Pierce is averaging almost
fifteen p per points per game over these four games.
Now the Coults are on by this week and then
out of that buy they have two rough matchups against
the Chiefs and the Texans. After that things do open
up a little bit more. And with Pierson by, maybe
(04:04):
he's a little bit cheaper than he otherwise would be.
Sell Marvin Harrison Junior. So, like I talked about on
last week's Mailback episode, this moved to Jacoby Brissett for Arizona.
It's a really good thing for Marvin Harrison Junior overall,
and we've seen that over the last couple of games,
Harrison Juniors hit target shars a thirty four and a
half percent and twenty seven point three percent. Those are
(04:27):
the two best target shairs of his entire season. He
scored twenty two point six and fourteen point three PPR
points over those two games. Now, with all that being said,
it was a little bit alarming to see Marvin Harrison
Junior catch just three of twelve targets on Sunday. And
we can't forget that he did play against the Packers
with Jacoby Brissett the week prior to this two game stretch.
(04:48):
He had an eighteen percent target chair in that game
and seven point eight PPR points. Harrison Juniors now scored
in back to back games. One of those games, like
I talked about last week, was against the best opponent
for perimeter wide receivers in the NFL. Moving forward, specifically
in the fantasy playoffs, his opponents are not going to
be nearly as bad. In Week fifteen, the Cardinals get
(05:10):
the Texans. That's a bottom matchup for wide receivers. In
Week sixteen, it's Atlanta. That's a team that's been generally
good at stopping the pass and then in week seventeen
it's Cincinnati. As good of a matchup as the Bengals are,
They've been okay against top wide receivers because a cornerback
DJ Turner. So if you have Marvin Harrison Junior and
(05:31):
you're eyeing the playoffs, this could be a chance to
sell high, only if you can truly truly sell high
by Trey Benson. Now, I've alluded to Benson being a
bye candidate on this podcast over the last couple of weeks.
Let's just make it official. We still don't know exactly
when he's going to be back and on the field,
(05:52):
but he suffered that knee injury back in week four,
and the original timetable was that he was going to
be back in four to six weeks. We're basically there
now and it comes at a good time. Bam Knight
suffered an ankle injury in Week ten against the Seahawks.
That backfield it's a Mari de Marcado and Michael Carter
right now, which, by the way, if Trey Benson doesn't
go this weekend, those running backs not bad ads off
(06:15):
the waiver wire. But look in that game where Trey
Benson was hurt he had a seventy three percent running
back rush air and a twelve and a half percent
target share. Those are really good peripherals. Let's just say
that he comes back and he sees that kind of workload.
In week sixteen and seventeen, the Cardinals get the Falcons
and the Bengals. Atlanta's slowly become a top ten matchup
(06:35):
for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Cincinnati is
the best matchup, and that's during Championship Week. So if
you're planning ahead and you want to have a player
who has a shot to rise dramatically from a value perspective,
even if his current situation is up in the air,
I think Benson could be your guy. Ad Tyler Aljier
(06:58):
Bjon Robinson has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week six.
Tyler Algier has three of them. As I said in
the newsletter this week, the Falcons seriously just hate us.
That's the only explanation. But realistically, what's going on here
is that Algier has five carries within the opponent's ten
yard line during this timeframe. Bijon Robinson has won. Now,
(07:20):
clearly Algier is not going to be an easy player
to trust week in and week out. But the Falcons
over their next three games, they get the Panthers, Saints,
and Jets. Those each have the potential for favorable run
heavy game scripts. So at the very least, if you
get Algier, you're handcuffing one of the best running backs
in fantasy football. But there is some potential that he
could find your flex ad Sean Tucker. Bucky Irving's now
(07:46):
been out since Week four. The Bucks have played five
games without Irving. During the first three of those five games,
Sean Tucker maxed out at a twenty two percent snapshare.
His running back rush share never got higher than twenty
six percent, But over his last two games, he's hit
snap shares of thirty four percent and thirty three percent.
He's had running back rush shares of forty one percent
(08:09):
and forty seven percent. He's averaging over ten carries per
game over his last two Now, Todd Bowles on Monday,
he said that Bucky Irving still doesn't have a timetable
to return. That means that Tucker, who's trending in the
right direction right now from a usage perspective, he has
a chance for some by week fill in production. The
Bucks get the Bills this week too. Buffalo has been
(08:31):
a top five matchup for running backs this year by
Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Sell Tes Johnson. Tes Johnson, who
weighs as much as some middle schoolers, has four touchdowns
over his last four games. That's resulted in fourteen point
two PPR points per game over the last month. Clearly, though,
it's going to be really difficult for Tes Johnson to
(08:53):
maintain that kind of touchdown production, especially because he only
had an eleven percent target share in Week ten. Not
only that, but Tampa Bay's rest of season schedule for
wide receivers it looks okay on paper at first glance,
but they face some teams like New Orleans and Carolina.
They face some teams that, partially due to volume, they're
not great matchups for wide receivers, at least according to
(09:14):
Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Of their remaining opponents, just twenty
nine percent of them rank his top half favorable matchups
by Justin points Allowed. Now, look, I'm not sure if
you can really sell high with Tees Johnson. Just know
that he is out playing his expected fantasy points total
by about four or five PPR points per game right now,
(09:35):
ad Joe Burrow. There was some unexpected news out of
Cincinnati on Monday, Joe Burrow's twenty one day practice window.
It was opened. Now, look, I know Burrow right now,
He's rostered in almost sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Chances
are someone in your league just threw them on IR,
but not all leagues have an IR spot. There are
gonna be people out there listening to the show where
(09:57):
Joe Burrow is sitting on the waiver wire, and if
if he is, I think you should get him this week.
You may not be able to trust him right away,
but Cincinnati quarterbacks have a good rest of season schedule.
They only have one matchup against a bottom ten opponent,
which is Buffalo in Week fourteen. So he's worth a
bench spot right now, especially if you're struggling a quarterback
(10:19):
by Jordan Addison. If you're looking for like a smaller
deal to make this week, it could be to buy
Jordan Addison to trade for him. Now. Am I super
enthusiastic about the way this Vikings passing attack looks? No?
Not really, But I do think it's rational to take
a step back and remember that JJ McCarthy has only
started four NFL games. Addison is diplow a seventeen percent
(10:41):
target share just once this year, and in Week ten
he saw a twenty seven percent share. Now, he couldn't
connect on his twelve targets. He only had three catches.
But it's nearly impossible for a professional wide receiver, a
wide receiver in the NFL, to sustain that low of
a catch rade. There's some potential for this Minnesota passing
attack to pose better numbers moving forward. Upcoming from them
(11:03):
is a game against the Bears. They've allowed about twenty
seven passing yards over expected per game this year. Then
it's the Packers who are closer to average, and that's
pre Monday Night football numbers. Then they get the Seahawks
who are plus thirteen yards, the Commanders who are plus
twenty nine yards per game, the Cowboys who are plus
fifty seven yards per game, the Giants who are plus
(11:24):
ten yards per game, and then the Lions, who are
minus eight yards per game. Minnesota wide receivers, according to
my numbers, they have a top three rest of season schedule. Look,
you should not send a starter to get Jordan Addison.
That's not what I'm saying. But if you can get
him to sit on your bench if you can trade
a bench asset to get Addison, I think he's a
good upside player to have sitting there. Add Dalton Schultz. Now,
(11:50):
I'll be honest, what Dalton Schultz is doing does not
feel super super sustainable. But he's been a top seven
tight end in weekly PPR scoring in three of his
last four games. He's seen a target chair of at
least twenty percent in each of those contests. Now, look,
the Texans have had a favorable tight end schedule during
this stretch and the rest of the seasons schedule, it's
actually bottom five in the league. But this kind of
(12:13):
usage deserves a shout out. Schultz has been a sleeper
show call out this year, but let's throw him on
the transactions list this week too. Add Dawson Knox. I've
talked about so many different tight ends over the last
handful of weeks on this show. Whether it's Colston Loveland
or whether it's Theo Johnson. I don't want to talk
about the same guys over and over again, so let's
(12:35):
give you a little bit of variety. Let's talk about
Dawson Knox, who's going to be stepping in for Dalton Kincaid,
because Dalton Kincaid right now is week to week with
a hamstring injury. Now, back in Week six, when Kincaid
was sidelined, Knox finished the day with a really solid
seventy seven percent route chair. Now you might be sitting
there and you're like, but he only had an eight
percent target chair, and that's true, But he also faced Atlanta.
(12:58):
Atlanta has been a team that's really limited tight end
production this year, So with no reliable targets in that
Buffalo offense, I think Dawson Knox could give you some
usability here at least while Dalton kin Kate is sidelined.
Hold Travion Henderson. What a wild year that it's been
for Trayvon Henderson. Turns out he might not be that bad,
(13:20):
which is great. It makes me look a lot less
stupid after seeing him perform against the Buccaneers. But I've
gotten a lot of questions about Henderson after that performance,
so let's talk about him. He had a breakout game
against the Bucks. His target share did dip to three
point four percent, but his role participation rate week over
week was basically the same, So that's just some variance
(13:41):
at play. What we did see is that he had
about a seventy four percent running back rush are. Now,
part of that was because Terrell Jennings got hurt, but
also Henderson took advantage. He ran the ball fourteen times
for one hundred and forty seven yards and two touchdowns.
Everyone got to see his big play ability. Now, after
everything we've seen this year, you might be tempted to sell,
(14:04):
And honestly, it's not a bad thought because there's a
very real chance that when Ramandre Stevenson is back that
he comes in and he takes a pretty big workload
in that backfield. But there's also a chance that Stevenson
misses another game this week because the Patriots play on
Thursday night and they face the Jets, which on paper
should be a good matchup for Henderson. Then after that
(14:25):
game against the Jets, they get matchups against the Bengals
and the Giants before they're Week fourteen. By those are
quite literally the two best opponents for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed. After the bye, New England gets Buffalo,
they're currently the fifth best opponent for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed, and then they're going to finish
the season against the Ravens, who are playing better, but
(14:45):
they're the six best opponent, and then the Jets, again
aside from their by Patriot running backs have the best
schedule in all of fantasy football. Now, look like I said,
I'd anticipate Ramandre Stevenson coming back at some point and
seeing a pretty good workload. I just don't think it's
gonna be as big as it was before. That means
Henderson could just play a role in this offense and
(15:07):
play a role that I thought he was gonna play
at the start of the season, where maybe he sees
half of the team's running back rushes and maybe a
little bit more who knows, And then he sees a
decent amount of targets or at least he's used in
that way as the team's pass catcher. And now we
know he has that big playability. We actually have seen it.
(15:27):
It's not just something that he did in college during
the preseason. He's done it in an NFL game. As
a result, he could be really efficient given these matchups
down the stretch. So rather than thinking that he's an
automatic cell, I would just be holding I think buying
it's probably a little bit aggressive given how obnoxious that
coaching staff has been with his backfield this year. But honestly, guys,
(15:48):
I think Henderson and Stevenson could finish the twenty twenty
five season pretty well. Ad Keaton Mitchell. Keaton Mitchell continues
to be very very fast. There are eight players, according
to next Gen Stats who have had three or more
runs this year where they hit twenty miles an hour
or more. Jonathan Taylor, Jamir Gibbs, Devon a Chan, Saquon Barkley,
(16:10):
Dereck Henry, and Breise Hall. Those are six of them.
No real surprise is there. Each one of those running
backs for the record has at least one hundred and
twenty eight rush attempts. Another player on that list this
is really surprising. It's Caleb Williams and he only has
forty eight rush attempts. The eighth player on this list
Keaton Mitchell. He's had three runs of twenty miles an
(16:31):
hour or more on only fifteen rush attempts. Mitchell's seen
four rushes in each of his last three games. His
running back rush aers. They've consistently only been like the
sixteen percent range. There's nothing amazing going on on the
usage front, but On Monday, John Harbaugh noted that the
Ravens want to get Mitchell more involved. Who knows what
(16:52):
that means. I certainly have no idea because they have
Derrick Henry. What we do know is that Keaton Mitchell
is an efficient machine and he can break big plays,
and he's won Derreck Henry injury away from seeing more
work in that backfield. Now, he wouldn't be a bell cow,
but he would see more work if Derrick Henry went
down to me in deeper leagues. That's worth a roster stash.
(17:19):
Add the Atlanta Falcons defense, the Falcons are at home
this week. They're three and a half point favorites against
the Panthers Carolina. They're the fifth best opponent for opposing
defenses by adjusted points allowed. Now I do have a
couple of fears here. Number one, the Falcons are traveling
a pretty long way to get back home. Number two,
the Panthers might be able to run the ball on
(17:39):
the Falcons. That could limit defensive scoring opportunities for fantasy purposes.
But overall, it's a pretty tough week for streaming defenses.
So we're gonna ride with Atlanta as a higher floor option.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bustorting for it
pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found it. Don't for
(18:02):
to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.
This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson.
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode
ten fifty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. I won't bore you with anything
To open up today's show. It's a super important time
(00:24):
of year. Trade deadlines are about to hit and we've
got to get these rosters ready for the fantasy playoffs.
So let's talk fifteen transactions for Week eleven and Luthor Burden.
Alamnez A Kias has run ahead of Luther Burden for
most of the season, despite the fact that he's dead
last on the team by a wide margin in yards
(00:44):
per route run Luthor Burden, according Next Gen Stats, he's
getting a full yard of separation per target over Zakias
this year. His YAK over expected profile is better too.
Burden's a young, explosive wide receiver who scored really, really
well in the ZAP model. I really hope the Bears
start to give him more work and they might because
(01:04):
DJ Moore suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday against the Giants.
In turn, Burton had his highest rout chair of the season,
which was forty nine percent. That's still not high enough,
there's no doubt about that, but it's moving in the
right direction. Burton ended up catching all three of his
targets for fifty one yards. If DJ Moore were to
miss some time, Burden would get more run in that offense,
(01:25):
there's no doubt. But even if he doesn't, both data
and the eye test suggest that Burden should be playing
more than Alamide's a kias right now. Burton's the right
type of player to have on your bench this time
of year. By Lamar Jackson. Understandably, the fantasy football world,
they're going to tell you to buy Derrick Henry this week.
(01:48):
He hasn't scored a touchdown a couple of games, and
he was vaulted by Justice Hill in Week ten. That
touchdown that came on a hurry up play. He'll just
happen to be the running back that was on the
field at that time. So if you can truly buy
low on Derrick Henry, that's not a bad idea. You
can go for it. Just don't forget about Lamar Jackson.
Jackson hasn't done his typical insane things since returning from
(02:10):
his injury. A couple of weeks ago. He's averages twenty
five rushing yards per game over his last two, which
are two games after that injury. Before the hamstring injury,
he was averaging forty one and a half rushing yards
per game. But like, think about this for a second,
did we really expect him to run that much coming
off the injury? In Week nine he was just getting
up to speed, and then this past week he faced
(02:31):
a reasonable Minnesota front and he also rushed for thirty
six yards. He just only found the end zone once
through the air. Baltimore's rest of season quarterback schedule, it's
arguably the best one in fantasy football. A matchup against
Cleveland this week. It's not great, so you could always
wait on this transaction if you want, But then they
get the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals again, Patriots, and Packers
(02:56):
to end the fantasy season. The only team that really
scares me there maybe is Pittsburgh. Maybe, but that's only
because the Steelers have played Jackson well in the past,
and that game doesn't come in the fantasy playoffs either.
If the Jackson manager in your league's feeling a little
bit iffy after that QB two outing in week ten,
maybe you can get him in a nice price. Ad
(03:20):
Alec Pierce. So I shouted out Alec Pierce on a
couple of episodes last week. The ten Trends episode talked
about him, The Sleeper Show talked about him, and because
of that, I probably just should have talked about him
on the fifteen Transaction Show after his Week ten performance,
though he definitely deserves a shout. Pierce now has thirty
five targets over the last four weeks. Michael Pittman, a
(03:42):
player that everyone should like in fantasy football, is at
thirty two. During that same stretch, Pierce is averaging almost
fifteen p per points per game over these four games.
Now the Coults are on by this week and then
out of that buy they have two rough matchups against
the Chiefs and the Texans. After that things do open
up a little bit more. And with Pierson by, maybe
(04:04):
he's a little bit cheaper than he otherwise would be.
Sell Marvin Harrison Junior. So, like I talked about on
last week's Mailback episode, this moved to Jacoby Brissett for Arizona.
It's a really good thing for Marvin Harrison Junior overall,
and we've seen that over the last couple of games,
Harrison Juniors hit target shars a thirty four and a
half percent and twenty seven point three percent. Those are
(04:27):
the two best target shairs of his entire season. He
scored twenty two point six and fourteen point three PPR
points over those two games. Now, with all that being said,
it was a little bit alarming to see Marvin Harrison
Junior catch just three of twelve targets on Sunday. And
we can't forget that he did play against the Packers
with Jacoby Brissett the week prior to this two game stretch.
(04:48):
He had an eighteen percent target chair in that game
and seven point eight PPR points. Harrison Juniors now scored
in back to back games. One of those games, like
I talked about last week, was against the best opponent
for perimeter wide receivers in the NFL. Moving forward, specifically
in the fantasy playoffs, his opponents are not going to
be nearly as bad. In Week fifteen, the Cardinals get
(05:10):
the Texans. That's a bottom matchup for wide receivers. In
Week sixteen, it's Atlanta. That's a team that's been generally
good at stopping the pass and then in week seventeen
it's Cincinnati. As good of a matchup as the Bengals are,
They've been okay against top wide receivers because a cornerback
DJ Turner. So if you have Marvin Harrison Junior and
(05:31):
you're eyeing the playoffs, this could be a chance to
sell high, only if you can truly truly sell high
by Trey Benson. Now, I've alluded to Benson being a
bye candidate on this podcast over the last couple of weeks.
Let's just make it official. We still don't know exactly
when he's going to be back and on the field,
(05:52):
but he suffered that knee injury back in week four,
and the original timetable was that he was going to
be back in four to six weeks. We're basically there
now and it comes at a good time. Bam Knight
suffered an ankle injury in Week ten against the Seahawks.
That backfield it's a Mari de Marcado and Michael Carter
right now, which, by the way, if Trey Benson doesn't
go this weekend, those running backs not bad ads off
(06:15):
the waiver wire. But look in that game where Trey
Benson was hurt he had a seventy three percent running
back rush air and a twelve and a half percent
target share. Those are really good peripherals. Let's just say
that he comes back and he sees that kind of workload.
In week sixteen and seventeen, the Cardinals get the Falcons
and the Bengals. Atlanta's slowly become a top ten matchup
(06:35):
for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Cincinnati is
the best matchup, and that's during Championship Week. So if
you're planning ahead and you want to have a player
who has a shot to rise dramatically from a value perspective,
even if his current situation is up in the air,
I think Benson could be your guy. Ad Tyler Aljier
(06:58):
Bjon Robinson has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week six.
Tyler Algier has three of them. As I said in
the newsletter this week, the Falcons seriously just hate us.
That's the only explanation. But realistically, what's going on here
is that Algier has five carries within the opponent's ten
yard line during this timeframe. Bijon Robinson has won. Now,
(07:20):
clearly Algier is not going to be an easy player
to trust week in and week out. But the Falcons
over their next three games, they get the Panthers, Saints,
and Jets. Those each have the potential for favorable run
heavy game scripts. So at the very least, if you
get Algier, you're handcuffing one of the best running backs
in fantasy football. But there is some potential that he
could find your flex ad Sean Tucker. Bucky Irving's now
(07:46):
been out since Week four. The Bucks have played five
games without Irving. During the first three of those five games,
Sean Tucker maxed out at a twenty two percent snapshare.
His running back rush share never got higher than twenty
six percent, But over his last two games, he's hit
snap shares of thirty four percent and thirty three percent.
He's had running back rush shares of forty one percent
(08:09):
and forty seven percent. He's averaging over ten carries per
game over his last two Now, Todd Bowles on Monday,
he said that Bucky Irving still doesn't have a timetable
to return. That means that Tucker, who's trending in the
right direction right now from a usage perspective, he has
a chance for some by week fill in production. The
Bucks get the Bills this week too. Buffalo has been
(08:31):
a top five matchup for running backs this year by
Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Sell Tes Johnson. Tes Johnson, who
weighs as much as some middle schoolers, has four touchdowns
over his last four games. That's resulted in fourteen point
two PPR points per game over the last month. Clearly, though,
it's going to be really difficult for Tes Johnson to
(08:53):
maintain that kind of touchdown production, especially because he only
had an eleven percent target share in Week ten. Not
only that, but Tampa Bay's rest of season schedule for
wide receivers it looks okay on paper at first glance,
but they face some teams like New Orleans and Carolina.
They face some teams that, partially due to volume, they're
not great matchups for wide receivers, at least according to
(09:14):
Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Of their remaining opponents, just twenty
nine percent of them rank his top half favorable matchups
by Justin points Allowed. Now, look, I'm not sure if
you can really sell high with Tees Johnson. Just know
that he is out playing his expected fantasy points total
by about four or five PPR points per game right now,
(09:35):
ad Joe Burrow. There was some unexpected news out of
Cincinnati on Monday, Joe Burrow's twenty one day practice window.
It was opened. Now, look, I know Burrow right now,
He's rostered in almost sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Chances
are someone in your league just threw them on IR,
but not all leagues have an IR spot. There are
gonna be people out there listening to the show where
(09:57):
Joe Burrow is sitting on the waiver wire, and if
if he is, I think you should get him this week.
You may not be able to trust him right away,
but Cincinnati quarterbacks have a good rest of season schedule.
They only have one matchup against a bottom ten opponent,
which is Buffalo in Week fourteen. So he's worth a
bench spot right now, especially if you're struggling a quarterback
(10:19):
by Jordan Addison. If you're looking for like a smaller
deal to make this week, it could be to buy
Jordan Addison to trade for him. Now. Am I super
enthusiastic about the way this Vikings passing attack looks? No?
Not really, But I do think it's rational to take
a step back and remember that JJ McCarthy has only
started four NFL games. Addison is diplow a seventeen percent
(10:41):
target share just once this year, and in Week ten
he saw a twenty seven percent share. Now, he couldn't
connect on his twelve targets. He only had three catches.
But it's nearly impossible for a professional wide receiver, a
wide receiver in the NFL, to sustain that low of
a catch rade. There's some potential for this Minnesota passing
attack to pose better numbers moving forward. Upcoming from them
(11:03):
is a game against the Bears. They've allowed about twenty
seven passing yards over expected per game this year. Then
it's the Packers who are closer to average, and that's
pre Monday Night football numbers. Then they get the Seahawks
who are plus thirteen yards, the Commanders who are plus
twenty nine yards per game, the Cowboys who are plus
fifty seven yards per game, the Giants who are plus
(11:24):
ten yards per game, and then the Lions, who are
minus eight yards per game. Minnesota wide receivers, according to
my numbers, they have a top three rest of season schedule. Look,
you should not send a starter to get Jordan Addison.
That's not what I'm saying. But if you can get
him to sit on your bench if you can trade
a bench asset to get Addison, I think he's a
good upside player to have sitting there. Add Dalton Schultz. Now,
(11:50):
I'll be honest, what Dalton Schultz is doing does not
feel super super sustainable. But he's been a top seven
tight end in weekly PPR scoring in three of his
last four games. He's seen a target chair of at
least twenty percent in each of those contests. Now, look,
the Texans have had a favorable tight end schedule during
this stretch and the rest of the seasons schedule, it's
actually bottom five in the league. But this kind of
(12:13):
usage deserves a shout out. Schultz has been a sleeper
show call out this year, but let's throw him on
the transactions list this week too. Add Dawson Knox. I've
talked about so many different tight ends over the last
handful of weeks on this show. Whether it's Colston Loveland
or whether it's Theo Johnson. I don't want to talk
about the same guys over and over again, so let's
(12:35):
give you a little bit of variety. Let's talk about
Dawson Knox, who's going to be stepping in for Dalton Kincaid,
because Dalton Kincaid right now is week to week with
a hamstring injury. Now, back in Week six, when Kincaid
was sidelined, Knox finished the day with a really solid
seventy seven percent route chair. Now you might be sitting
there and you're like, but he only had an eight
percent target chair, and that's true, But he also faced Atlanta.
(12:58):
Atlanta has been a team that's really limited tight end
production this year, So with no reliable targets in that
Buffalo offense, I think Dawson Knox could give you some
usability here at least while Dalton kin Kate is sidelined.
Hold Travion Henderson. What a wild year that it's been
for Trayvon Henderson. Turns out he might not be that bad,
(13:20):
which is great. It makes me look a lot less
stupid after seeing him perform against the Buccaneers. But I've
gotten a lot of questions about Henderson after that performance,
so let's talk about him. He had a breakout game
against the Bucks. His target share did dip to three
point four percent, but his role participation rate week over
week was basically the same, So that's just some variance
(13:41):
at play. What we did see is that he had
about a seventy four percent running back rush are. Now,
part of that was because Terrell Jennings got hurt, but
also Henderson took advantage. He ran the ball fourteen times
for one hundred and forty seven yards and two touchdowns.
Everyone got to see his big play ability. Now, after
everything we've seen this year, you might be tempted to sell,
(14:04):
And honestly, it's not a bad thought because there's a
very real chance that when Ramandre Stevenson is back that
he comes in and he takes a pretty big workload
in that backfield. But there's also a chance that Stevenson
misses another game this week because the Patriots play on
Thursday night and they face the Jets, which on paper
should be a good matchup for Henderson. Then after that
(14:25):
game against the Jets, they get matchups against the Bengals
and the Giants before they're Week fourteen. By those are
quite literally the two best opponents for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed. After the bye, New England gets Buffalo,
they're currently the fifth best opponent for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed, and then they're going to finish
the season against the Ravens, who are playing better, but
(14:45):
they're the six best opponent, and then the Jets, again
aside from their by Patriot running backs have the best
schedule in all of fantasy football. Now, look like I said,
I'd anticipate Ramandre Stevenson coming back at some point and
seeing a pretty good workload. I just don't think it's
gonna be as big as it was before. That means
Henderson could just play a role in this offense and
(15:07):
play a role that I thought he was gonna play
at the start of the season, where maybe he sees
half of the team's running back rushes and maybe a
little bit more who knows, And then he sees a
decent amount of targets or at least he's used in
that way as the team's pass catcher. And now we
know he has that big playability. We actually have seen it.
(15:27):
It's not just something that he did in college during
the preseason. He's done it in an NFL game. As
a result, he could be really efficient given these matchups
down the stretch. So rather than thinking that he's an
automatic cell, I would just be holding I think buying
it's probably a little bit aggressive given how obnoxious that
coaching staff has been with his backfield this year. But honestly, guys,
(15:48):
I think Henderson and Stevenson could finish the twenty twenty
five season pretty well. Ad Keaton Mitchell. Keaton Mitchell continues
to be very very fast. There are eight players, according
to next Gen Stats who have had three or more
runs this year where they hit twenty miles an hour
or more. Jonathan Taylor, Jamir Gibbs, Devon a Chan, Saquon Barkley,
(16:10):
Dereck Henry, and Breise Hall. Those are six of them.
No real surprise is there. Each one of those running
backs for the record has at least one hundred and
twenty eight rush attempts. Another player on that list this
is really surprising. It's Caleb Williams and he only has
forty eight rush attempts. The eighth player on this list
Keaton Mitchell. He's had three runs of twenty miles an
(16:31):
hour or more on only fifteen rush attempts. Mitchell's seen
four rushes in each of his last three games. His
running back rush aers. They've consistently only been like the
sixteen percent range. There's nothing amazing going on on the
usage front, but On Monday, John Harbaugh noted that the
Ravens want to get Mitchell more involved. Who knows what
(16:52):
that means. I certainly have no idea because they have
Derrick Henry. What we do know is that Keaton Mitchell
is an efficient machine and he can break big plays,
and he's won Derreck Henry injury away from seeing more
work in that backfield. Now, he wouldn't be a bell cow,
but he would see more work if Derrick Henry went
down to me in deeper leagues. That's worth a roster stash.
(17:19):
Add the Atlanta Falcons defense, the Falcons are at home
this week. They're three and a half point favorites against
the Panthers Carolina. They're the fifth best opponent for opposing
defenses by adjusted points allowed. Now I do have a
couple of fears here. Number one, the Falcons are traveling
a pretty long way to get back home. Number two,
the Panthers might be able to run the ball on
(17:39):
the Falcons. That could limit defensive scoring opportunities for fantasy purposes.
But overall, it's a pretty tough week for streaming defenses.
So we're gonna ride with Atlanta as a higher floor option.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bustorting for it
pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found it. Don't for
(18:02):
to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back
in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.
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