November 12, 2025 • 12 mins
JJ talks about the Eagles offense, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, and more on this week's 11 Trends episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas
Jay Jake zacher Reefan. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin
in this episode ten fifty two of the Late Round
Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Now, before I
get to the trends this week, I've got a favor
(00:22):
to ask you. If you check out the description for
this episode, you'll see there's a link to a survey.
That survey it shouldn't take long to fill out, but
it's really really helpful for myself and David Kitchen, my COO,
to get honest feedback from you guys. I went Late
Round Fantasy Football, this podcast. The content I'm producing, I
want it to be as helpful and entertaining as it
(00:43):
possibly can be, and the best way to get that
done is through listening to what's working for you guys
and what isn't. So if you could fill it out,
it would be greatly, greatly appreciated. Now let's get to
these ten trends. The Raiders played their first game without
Jacoby Myers in Week two. It resulted in a lot
more Tyler Lockett. Locket ended up running a round on
(01:04):
eighty percent of Vegas's dropbacks against the Broncos that resulted
in a twenty five percent target shair. Now, Trey Tucker
was the other primary wide receiver. He ran a route
on every single Raiders dropback. He's now done that two
weeks in a row. Lockett wasn't a transaction this week
on the Transactions podcast because it's the Raiders and Lockett
himself is thirty three years old and passes prime. But
(01:27):
Vegas does get Dallas this week. Anything is possible against
that defense. There was a huge shift in the Texans
backfield in week ten. I know I mentioned what he
marks being a by candidate last week, but I can
promise you guys, I did not expect this. It was,
no doubt a weird game script, but Mar's played seventy
(01:48):
eight percent of the team's offensive snaps, which was by
far a season high. Nick Chubb he was at fourteen percent,
a season low. That resulted in Mark seeing a seventy
four percent running back rush air, which was a season high,
and a fifty five percent route share which was another
season high. Based on their rest of season schedule and
all the stuff I talked about last week, if this
usage continues, we're looking at RB two production for what
(02:11):
he marks, but it's just one game. That's still a
pretty big if. Another backfield that flipped last week was
with the Giants. A couple of weeks ago, Devin Singletary
out snapped Tyrone Tracy, seeing a fifty five percent snapshare
versus forty five percent one In week ten, though that flipped,
(02:31):
Tyrone Tracy had a sixty six percent snapshare Devin Singletary
thirty four percent. Now, Tracy only scored eight point one
PPR points, but he was used a lot more than
he was the previous week. Now a huge problem for
Giants running backs. They have a brutal rest of season schedules. Specifically,
the next few weeks are absolutely terrible. They'll get the Packers, Lions,
(02:52):
and Patriots, three bottom five matchups for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed. Now it eases up a little
bit after that, but they do get the Vikings in
Week sixteen, which is another bottom ten matchup. So overall
this is good for Tracy, but the offensive environment the
schedule just brutal for him. Teteroa McMillan is seeing good
(03:13):
target shars. He's been at forty four two thirty five
percent target shares over his last three games. Those are
some pretty crazy numbers that's resulted in twenty four targets,
but that number is so much lower on the Panthers
than it would be on another team, most other teams,
because Carolina loves to run the football. Since Week four,
according to Fantasy Life data, Carolina has a minus twelve
(03:37):
percent dropbacks over expected rate. Only Seattle's had a lower
rate during that timeframe. But Seattle's averaging over thirty points
per game in this stretch, Carolina is averaging sixteen point four.
It's just not conducive for fantasy purposes. Otherwise, McMillan could
be smashing this year. After Kyle Manungai's big performance against
(03:59):
the Bengals in Week nine, no one knew exactly how
the Bearers would split their backfield in Week ten. Well,
the results are in. DeAndre Swift basically just played his
typical role. He saw sixty one percent snap share, exactly
his season long average. He had a fifty six percent
route share, higher than his season long average, and he
had a sixty five percent running back rush share and
(04:20):
a season high twenty two percent target share. Those peripherals
were kind of awesome for DeAndre Swift. Honestly, in general,
DeAndre Swift has been low key awesome just himself this year.
He scored double digit PPR points in every game. Since
Week one, He's averaging almost sixteen PPR points per game.
This appears to still be DeAndre Swist's backfield. Definitely from
(04:42):
a fantasy perspective too, given that pass catching ability. The
Philadelphia Eagles have one of the most frustrating offenses in
football for fantasy purposes, and they're winning games, which makes
us even more tilting. But if you remember I talked
about this earlier in the season, over their first three games,
they really were running the ball a ton. According to
(05:03):
Fantasy Life dropbacks over expected rate, the Eagles were thirty first.
From weeks one through three, they had a minus seven
percent rate. Then we saw that shift a little bit.
Weeks four, five, six, and seven they were mostly neutral,
and actually during that stretch, because of one big game
and drop back rate over expected, the Eagles were first
in the NFL and drop backs over expected. That was
(05:25):
from week four through week seven things were moving in
the right direction for fantasy purposes, and then the last
two games Week eight and Week ten they've been at
minus six percent and minus twelve percent. They had a
dropbacks over expected rate of minus twelve percent against the Packers.
The issue with this is that the Eagles offense just
isn't as good year over year period. Through ten weeks,
(05:48):
just thirty six percent of Philadelphia's drives are ending with
a score of some sort That rings twenty fifth in
the NFL. Last year, across the season, that number was
forty five percent. Philadelphia ranked eighth. Kevin Bittulo. In this offense,
they're just not doing as much to confuse defenses. This
is also something that we talked about earlier on in
the season. Last year, the Eagles ran play action on
(06:12):
twenty five percent of their dropbacks. This year, that's following
the twenty one percent last year. The Eagles had an
RPO rate of fourteen percent this year, it's ten percent.
They used motion on forty six percent of their plays
this year forty four percent. All the while, the offense
is just running a little bit slower too. They're not
running as many plays, so it's sort of all of
(06:33):
these small things not converting as well, not being quite
as creative, not running it as quickly. All of those
small things have combined to create more of a mess
for fantasy purposes, especially for that passing attack. Zay Flowers
has not scored a touchdown since Week one, and this
(06:54):
is beyond a trend at this point. Flowers has now
scored ten NFL touchdowns on two hundred and ninety targets.
He had five touchdowns as a rookie, he had four
as a second year player. He's got one through nine
games this year. Now, Obviously he's a smaller wide receiver,
so the initial thought is that he's just not that
much of a red zone threat, and you would be correct.
(07:15):
Flowers has seen one end zone target this year, just one.
It came all the way back in Week one. He
had seven of them last year, but those seven came
in just four games. It's not like they've been consistently
coming in. Meanwhile, on that same team, and just for comparison,
Rashad Bateman had eleven en zone targets in the regular
season last year. He's got three this year. Despite the
(07:37):
fact that Flowers is lapping him in target share. Now,
this doesn't mean that Zay Flowers is never gonna score
a touchdown again. I'd be shocked with his target share.
If he doesn't find the end zone a few times
rest of season, it's just more difficult for him to
get there, and that's why he hasn't hit fifteen PPR
points in a single game since Week one, and it's
what's limiting him from really reaching a great ceiling Fantasy
(08:00):
Football as long as this usage continues. It's been about
a month since I've talked about Quinn Shawn Judkins on
this ten Trends episode, and unfortunately, not much has changed
with his overall usage. Judkins has hit a double digit
percentage target share just once this season. That happened all
the way back in Week four. He has just a
(08:21):
twenty six percent route share on the season. That's worse
than David Montgomery for just some perspective, and it ranks
outside the top fifty at the position. Judkins now has
a six and a half percent target share per game
rate on the year. Since twenty eleven, we've only had
fourteen running backs finished a season in the top fifteen
and PPR points per game with a target share per
game rate below seven percent. So it does happen, but
(08:45):
it doesn't happen frequently. But of those players who got there,
of those fourteen running backs. All but three of them
played in an offense that ranked in the top seven
in touchdowns per game. Two of them were in offenses
that ranked eleventh, and then the other one in an
offense that ranked seventeenth. As we know, the Browns do
not have a good offense. Judkins is the RB twenty
(09:08):
and PPR points per game right now, so he's not
that far off from that top fifteen spot. He also
has a great schedule that's made me so close to
making him a buy candidate. But the lack of receiving
usage just matters so much in fantasy football. It's really
capping his ceiling right now. Chase Brown is back this
(09:28):
week out of the bye, and something very important could
be happening to his role. Samaj p Ryan could be sidelined.
Now I don't have that information right now, whether p
Ryan will play or not, but entering thereby, p Ryan
was week to week with a high ankle sprain and
the last time we saw Cincinnati that made a huge
difference in Chase Brown's role. Brown ended up seeing an
(09:49):
eighty six percent route share back in Week nine. That
was by far his highest route share of the season,
and the way receiving sort of funnels down statistically. You've
got receptions in yard and targets at the box score level.
Then you look at target share, or the percentage of
targets that a player has within his team's offense, and
then that stems from routchare A player can't have a
(10:10):
high target share without running routes. There's going to be
a natural correlation between route share and target share. And
in week nine, the last time we saw the Bengals
Chase Brown within eighty six percent routchair saw a thirty
one percent target share. And it's no coincidence that it
happened when Samaj p Ryan got hurt. So if pe
(10:31):
Ryan is out, you should feel really good about Chase
Brown's usage. It has a chance to be better than
you think. The last trend this week is about Jamison Williams.
The Lions are using more Williams, at least compared to
the first few games of the season. Now, I went
to see if I could find anything in the data
with the type of routes that he ran in Week
ten with Dan Campbell calling plays, I couldn't really find
(10:53):
anything significant, But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't shout
out what's been going on since week four. From weeks
one through three, Williams never saw a target share of
fifteen percent. He was averaging a target chair per game
rate of just thirteen percent. Since then, his target share
per game rate is eighteen percent, so a nice five
percent bump, and he's now scored sixteen points six or
(11:14):
more PPR points and three of his last four. Now
I mentioned I couldn't find anything super interesting about the
kind of routes he was running, But sometimes players will
play the exact same role and just get targeted differently,
which is what I think is going on here. Since
week four, Jmo has had an average depth of target
of eight point seven yards. That number was twenty point
(11:36):
five during weeks one through four, So when he's been
actually targeted, it's coming on plays that are closer to
the line of scrimmage. That allows him to do more
after the catch, and frankly, just gives him a way
better floor in fantasy football. Given the amount of dome
games that are upcoming for the Lions, I'm pretty optimistic
about Jamison Williams maintaining better production down the stretch. I
(11:58):
don't think we're gonna see first this month Jamison Williams
during the final months of the season. That's it for
today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening.
If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are bestarching for a pretty much anywhere
podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for
listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas
Jay Jake zacher Reefan. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin
in this episode ten fifty two of the Late Round
Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Now, before I
get to the trends this week, I've got a favor
(00:22):
to ask you. If you check out the description for
this episode, you'll see there's a link to a survey.
That survey it shouldn't take long to fill out, but
it's really really helpful for myself and David Kitchen, my COO,
to get honest feedback from you guys. I went Late
Round Fantasy Football, this podcast. The content I'm producing, I
want it to be as helpful and entertaining as it
(00:43):
possibly can be, and the best way to get that
done is through listening to what's working for you guys
and what isn't. So if you could fill it out,
it would be greatly, greatly appreciated. Now let's get to
these ten trends. The Raiders played their first game without
Jacoby Myers in Week two. It resulted in a lot
more Tyler Lockett. Locket ended up running a round on
(01:04):
eighty percent of Vegas's dropbacks against the Broncos that resulted
in a twenty five percent target shair. Now, Trey Tucker
was the other primary wide receiver. He ran a route
on every single Raiders dropback. He's now done that two
weeks in a row. Lockett wasn't a transaction this week
on the Transactions podcast because it's the Raiders and Lockett
himself is thirty three years old and passes prime. But
(01:27):
Vegas does get Dallas this week. Anything is possible against
that defense. There was a huge shift in the Texans
backfield in week ten. I know I mentioned what he
marks being a by candidate last week, but I can
promise you guys, I did not expect this. It was,
no doubt a weird game script, but Mar's played seventy
(01:48):
eight percent of the team's offensive snaps, which was by
far a season high. Nick Chubb he was at fourteen percent,
a season low. That resulted in Mark seeing a seventy
four percent running back rush air, which was a season high,
and a fifty five percent route share which was another
season high. Based on their rest of season schedule and
all the stuff I talked about last week, if this
usage continues, we're looking at RB two production for what
(02:11):
he marks, but it's just one game. That's still a
pretty big if. Another backfield that flipped last week was
with the Giants. A couple of weeks ago, Devin Singletary
out snapped Tyrone Tracy, seeing a fifty five percent snapshare
versus forty five percent one In week ten, though that flipped,
(02:31):
Tyrone Tracy had a sixty six percent snapshare Devin Singletary
thirty four percent. Now, Tracy only scored eight point one
PPR points, but he was used a lot more than
he was the previous week. Now a huge problem for
Giants running backs. They have a brutal rest of season schedules. Specifically,
the next few weeks are absolutely terrible. They'll get the Packers, Lions,
(02:52):
and Patriots, three bottom five matchups for running backs by
justin fantasy points allowed. Now it eases up a little
bit after that, but they do get the Vikings in
Week sixteen, which is another bottom ten matchup. So overall
this is good for Tracy, but the offensive environment the
schedule just brutal for him. Teteroa McMillan is seeing good
(03:13):
target shars. He's been at forty four two thirty five
percent target shares over his last three games. Those are
some pretty crazy numbers that's resulted in twenty four targets,
but that number is so much lower on the Panthers
than it would be on another team, most other teams,
because Carolina loves to run the football. Since Week four,
according to Fantasy Life data, Carolina has a minus twelve
(03:37):
percent dropbacks over expected rate. Only Seattle's had a lower
rate during that timeframe. But Seattle's averaging over thirty points
per game in this stretch, Carolina is averaging sixteen point four.
It's just not conducive for fantasy purposes. Otherwise, McMillan could
be smashing this year. After Kyle Manungai's big performance against
(03:59):
the Bengals in Week nine, no one knew exactly how
the Bearers would split their backfield in Week ten. Well,
the results are in. DeAndre Swift basically just played his
typical role. He saw sixty one percent snap share, exactly
his season long average. He had a fifty six percent
route share, higher than his season long average, and he
had a sixty five percent running back rush share and
(04:20):
a season high twenty two percent target share. Those peripherals
were kind of awesome for DeAndre Swift. Honestly, in general,
DeAndre Swift has been low key awesome just himself this year.
He scored double digit PPR points in every game. Since
Week one, He's averaging almost sixteen PPR points per game.
This appears to still be DeAndre Swist's backfield. Definitely from
(04:42):
a fantasy perspective too, given that pass catching ability. The
Philadelphia Eagles have one of the most frustrating offenses in
football for fantasy purposes, and they're winning games, which makes
us even more tilting. But if you remember I talked
about this earlier in the season, over their first three games,
they really were running the ball a ton. According to
(05:03):
Fantasy Life dropbacks over expected rate, the Eagles were thirty first.
From weeks one through three, they had a minus seven
percent rate. Then we saw that shift a little bit.
Weeks four, five, six, and seven they were mostly neutral,
and actually during that stretch, because of one big game
and drop back rate over expected, the Eagles were first
in the NFL and drop backs over expected. That was
(05:25):
from week four through week seven things were moving in
the right direction for fantasy purposes, and then the last
two games Week eight and Week ten they've been at
minus six percent and minus twelve percent. They had a
dropbacks over expected rate of minus twelve percent against the Packers.
The issue with this is that the Eagles offense just
isn't as good year over year period. Through ten weeks,
(05:48):
just thirty six percent of Philadelphia's drives are ending with
a score of some sort That rings twenty fifth in
the NFL. Last year, across the season, that number was
forty five percent. Philadelphia ranked eighth. Kevin Bittulo. In this offense,
they're just not doing as much to confuse defenses. This
is also something that we talked about earlier on in
the season. Last year, the Eagles ran play action on
(06:12):
twenty five percent of their dropbacks. This year, that's following
the twenty one percent last year. The Eagles had an
RPO rate of fourteen percent this year, it's ten percent.
They used motion on forty six percent of their plays
this year forty four percent. All the while, the offense
is just running a little bit slower too. They're not
running as many plays, so it's sort of all of
(06:33):
these small things not converting as well, not being quite
as creative, not running it as quickly. All of those
small things have combined to create more of a mess
for fantasy purposes, especially for that passing attack. Zay Flowers
has not scored a touchdown since Week one, and this
(06:54):
is beyond a trend at this point. Flowers has now
scored ten NFL touchdowns on two hundred and ninety targets.
He had five touchdowns as a rookie, he had four
as a second year player. He's got one through nine
games this year. Now, Obviously he's a smaller wide receiver,
so the initial thought is that he's just not that
much of a red zone threat, and you would be correct.
(07:15):
Flowers has seen one end zone target this year, just one.
It came all the way back in Week one. He
had seven of them last year, but those seven came
in just four games. It's not like they've been consistently
coming in. Meanwhile, on that same team, and just for comparison,
Rashad Bateman had eleven en zone targets in the regular
season last year. He's got three this year. Despite the
(07:37):
fact that Flowers is lapping him in target share. Now,
this doesn't mean that Zay Flowers is never gonna score
a touchdown again. I'd be shocked with his target share.
If he doesn't find the end zone a few times
rest of season, it's just more difficult for him to
get there, and that's why he hasn't hit fifteen PPR
points in a single game since Week one, and it's
what's limiting him from really reaching a great ceiling Fantasy
(08:00):
Football as long as this usage continues. It's been about
a month since I've talked about Quinn Shawn Judkins on
this ten Trends episode, and unfortunately, not much has changed
with his overall usage. Judkins has hit a double digit
percentage target share just once this season. That happened all
the way back in Week four. He has just a
(08:21):
twenty six percent route share on the season. That's worse
than David Montgomery for just some perspective, and it ranks
outside the top fifty at the position. Judkins now has
a six and a half percent target share per game
rate on the year. Since twenty eleven, we've only had
fourteen running backs finished a season in the top fifteen
and PPR points per game with a target share per
game rate below seven percent. So it does happen, but
(08:45):
it doesn't happen frequently. But of those players who got there,
of those fourteen running backs. All but three of them
played in an offense that ranked in the top seven
in touchdowns per game. Two of them were in offenses
that ranked eleventh, and then the other one in an
offense that ranked seventeenth. As we know, the Browns do
not have a good offense. Judkins is the RB twenty
(09:08):
and PPR points per game right now, so he's not
that far off from that top fifteen spot. He also
has a great schedule that's made me so close to
making him a buy candidate. But the lack of receiving
usage just matters so much in fantasy football. It's really
capping his ceiling right now. Chase Brown is back this
(09:28):
week out of the bye, and something very important could
be happening to his role. Samaj p Ryan could be sidelined.
Now I don't have that information right now, whether p
Ryan will play or not, but entering thereby, p Ryan
was week to week with a high ankle sprain and
the last time we saw Cincinnati that made a huge
difference in Chase Brown's role. Brown ended up seeing an
(09:49):
eighty six percent route share back in Week nine. That
was by far his highest route share of the season,
and the way receiving sort of funnels down statistically. You've
got receptions in yard and targets at the box score level.
Then you look at target share, or the percentage of
targets that a player has within his team's offense, and
then that stems from routchare A player can't have a
(10:10):
high target share without running routes. There's going to be
a natural correlation between route share and target share. And
in week nine, the last time we saw the Bengals
Chase Brown within eighty six percent routchair saw a thirty
one percent target share. And it's no coincidence that it
happened when Samaj p Ryan got hurt. So if pe
(10:31):
Ryan is out, you should feel really good about Chase
Brown's usage. It has a chance to be better than
you think. The last trend this week is about Jamison Williams.
The Lions are using more Williams, at least compared to
the first few games of the season. Now, I went
to see if I could find anything in the data
with the type of routes that he ran in Week
ten with Dan Campbell calling plays, I couldn't really find
(10:53):
anything significant, But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't shout
out what's been going on since week four. From weeks
one through three, Williams never saw a target share of
fifteen percent. He was averaging a target chair per game
rate of just thirteen percent. Since then, his target share
per game rate is eighteen percent, so a nice five
percent bump, and he's now scored sixteen points six or
(11:14):
more PPR points and three of his last four. Now
I mentioned I couldn't find anything super interesting about the
kind of routes he was running, But sometimes players will
play the exact same role and just get targeted differently,
which is what I think is going on here. Since
week four, Jmo has had an average depth of target
of eight point seven yards. That number was twenty point
(11:36):
five during weeks one through four, So when he's been
actually targeted, it's coming on plays that are closer to
the line of scrimmage. That allows him to do more
after the catch, and frankly, just gives him a way
better floor in fantasy football. Given the amount of dome
games that are upcoming for the Lions, I'm pretty optimistic
about Jamison Williams maintaining better production down the stretch. I
(11:58):
don't think we're gonna see first this month Jamison Williams
during the final months of the season. That's it for
today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening.
If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are bestarching for a pretty much anywhere
podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for
listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.
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