November 13, 2025 • 20 mins
JJ talks through a ton of quarterback streamers, some risky running back plays, interesting wide receivers with more opportunity this week, and more on this week's sleepers episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
J J Zacher reson.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten
fifty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks
for tuning in. I'd been running really hot with this
Sleeper show heading into last week. I'm talking like four
straight awesome weeks, and i knew that last week was
gonna be tough, and so there were a few more
misses than I've had over the last month, but I'm
(00:32):
still pretty happy overall with how things went. On the
bad side, Sam Darnold was a horrible pick, Romeo Dobbs
was two, Kyle Pitts couldn't get going, and then a
lot of the deep sleepers they didn't do that much
at all either. I'm talking Jalen Lane, Zavier Lagette, Jerry McNichols,
and AJ Barner. But Jackson Dart was great. Aaron Jones
came through with almost sixteen PPR points, Troy Franklin had fifteen,
(00:55):
Wandel Robinson and Darius Slayton were both over twelve. Alec
Pierce had a big game, Parker Washington was solid, and
the mid tier tight ends. My goodness, every single one
of them scored at least nine and a half PPR points,
but four of the five hit fourteen and a half
PPR points, those four being Theo Johnson, Juwan Johnson, Kay
dott And and Dalton Schultz, Marcus Mariot and Jacoby Brissett. They
(01:18):
were good deep quarterback plays too, and Kyle Williams he
saved his day with that big touchdown. So no, it
wasn't as good as some of the other recent weeks,
but with what I was working with, I'm happy with
those results. And by the way, I went to Twitter
and I asked if people wanted to keep hearing about
these hits and misses to open up the Sleeper show,
and eighty percent of you said to keep the recap.
(01:39):
So I'm keeping the recap. The people have spoken. Now
let's move on to Week eleven. We'll start as usual
by looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo leagues, and that quarterback I have two for
you in this tier. One of them is Joe Flacco.
Flacco has been the QB one in fantasy football since
he was traded to Cincinnati. He's averaging about twenty five
(02:01):
standard Fantasy points per game. That alone is tough to bench.
But he's also facing Pittsburgh, a team he destroyed back
in Week seven. I'd expect the Steelers defense to have
better answers in this game, and it's in Pittsburgh too,
But they're top ten matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy
points allowed, So Flacco can find your lineup now if
you want a high variance option JJ McCarthy. On paper,
(02:23):
he's in a good spot. The Vikings get the Bears
this week. They have a team total over twenty five points,
and they're at home and Chicago is the fourth best
matchup this season by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. They've
a looted about twenty seven passing yards over expected per
game this year. I know McCarthy hasn't gotten it done,
but it could be a get right game for him.
(02:44):
At running back, I've got one player in this tier
for you, and it's Woody Marks. I think people should
be excited about what Marks did last week on the
usage front, but one week that's not a trend yet
and this week will be a good test for that.
The Texans their seven point favorites against a Titans team
that's allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to running
backs this year. We saw Marx give us an RB
(03:05):
six performance against Tennessee the last time these two teams meant.
But I do think there's at least some risk that
we see more Nick Chubb this weekend than we did
last week. But more optimistically, if Marx gets the same
workload week over week, he could smash. We're talking about
a seventy four percent running back rush share, a fifty
five percent routchare, and one of the best matchups in
(03:25):
the league for running backs, so he's a good option
at wide.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Receiver in this group.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
I'm gonna cheat just a little bit and go to
Quentin Johnston just because he's slightly slightly above that eighty
percent mark. Qj's been kind of disappointing after what he
did during the first four weeks of the season, but
he's coming off a game against Pittsburgh where he hit
a thirty percent target share. It was only a five catch,
forty two yard performance, but the matchup this week it's
pretty juicy.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
The Chargers get the Jags.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Jacksonville's completely average when it comes to justin fantasy points
allowed to wide receivers, but They've been specifically bad against
perimeter wideouts. Against the They've given him actually the fewest
wide receiver points per game this year against outside wideouts
their third worst. And Johnston he's run the vast majority
of his routes from the outside. The other guys in
(04:12):
LA are fine, too, but I think Quentin Johnston has
a better game this week than what we've seen over
the last month or so. Jamis Winston is starting for
the Giants. I think this at least keeps the wide
receivers neutral, but it could help Darius Slayton a little
bit more than Wandell Robinson because Winston has his tendency
to throw the ball down the field. He's aggressive in
the matchup. It's better for Slayton this week too. They
(04:35):
get Green Bay and the Packers have been below averages
stopping perimeter wide receivers while above average at stopping slot guys.
So that's a bump for Slayton and a slight downgrade
for wandel Robinson. I think they're closer this week than
many would expect. Just do be aware that Slayton didn't
practice on Wednesday. If he can't go this week, Wandell
Robinson's gonna play more on the outside and he could
(04:56):
just get peppered with targets. Now last in this tier
at tight end is zach Ertz. I know they don't
have Jaden Daniels, but the Commanders get the Dolphins this week.
Miami's the fourth best matchup for tight ends by justin
fantasy points allowed. Ertz is also averaging a strong twenty
two percent target chair per game rate over his last
five It could come together for a nice outing for
zach Ertz. This nice group of sleepers consists of guys
(05:21):
rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. And
again we'll start at quarterback, and there's a lot of
streamers in this group. Aaron Rodgers is the first one
to call out. The Steelers have an implied team total
against Cincinnati of twenty seven and a half points, and
the Bengals are the second best matchup for quarterbacks by
justin points allowed. They're all so terrible at defending tight ends,
(05:42):
and Pittsburgh they target their tight ends a lot. They
have the second highest tight end target share in all
of football. We saw that at work the last time
these two teams played, so it could be a bounce
back game for Aaron Rodgers and this Steelers offense. Jacoby
pursets another one to call out here, He's not Finn,
which is a QB one, a top twelve quarterback in
(06:02):
each of his four starts this year. Now, the Cardinals
get a slightly above average opponent when they face San Francisco.
The pace score in this game is pretty good, so
there could be more plays run, and Arizona has a
twenty three point ply team total even without Marvin Harrison,
Junior Brissette should be solid enough. I still have three
more quarterback streamers for real, and one of them to a.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Tongue of Ioloa.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Tua faces off against a Commander's defense that has been struggling.
The Dolphins have a twenty five point ply team total
and Washington's the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin
points allowed. Quarterbacks have averaged thirty more passing yards per
game when they face the Commanders versus other opponents versus
their season long average. That makes Tua a worthy streamer. Now, look,
(06:47):
I know that Gino Smith is very hard to trust,
but he does get Dallas this week. That's the best
matchup on paper in the entire league. The Cowboys got
some help on defense at the deadline. They're also coming
off their by so there is some risk with this matchup,
but they've also given up fifty eight passing yards per
game this year over expected. If there's one time to
(07:07):
start Gino Smith, it'd be this week, and then the
last one's Marcus Mariota. As I mentioned, the Commanders get
the Dolphins, and Miami's a top ten matchup for quarterbacks
by justin points allowed. Mariota's giving fantasy managers at least
a couple of points per game with his legs, and
Washington is one of the better pressure rate matchups in
the league this week, it's at least above average, so
(07:28):
Mariota is in play. The Cardinals backfield is really up
in the air right now. Bam Knight suffered an ankle
injury last week. I have no idea if he's gonna play.
Is Trey Benson gonna be back this week? It doesn't
sound likely, but I currently have no idea. Let's just
pretend that both of those guys are out. That would
lead the backfield to Michael Carter and Amrio de Mercado,
(07:49):
and it's a matchup against San Francisco a team that's
allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to running backs
this year. Now, we've seen this backfield tandem in the
past and Michael Carter got the edge, but Cacaddo has
actually been running pretty well, so I'd probably just prefer
him if it came down to these two running backs.
If Night is in, we should probably lean that way,
and then Carter is more of a deep play. I've
(08:12):
got Taj Spears in here too. It's not the best
matchup on paper for Tennessee. Houston ranks is a bottom
ten matchup for running backs this season, but the Titans
are big underdogs as they typically are, and the Texans
their tenth this season and adjusted target share allowed to
running backs. As we know, Spears has taken on that
pass catching role in that backfield. He's seen a solid
twelve percent target share over his last four games, so
(08:34):
if you're in a pinch, he could give you some points.
In PPR leagues, it's tough to not go with Parker
Washington right now, regardless of what's happening around him at
the other wide receiver positions. In Jacksonville, he's seen target
shares of twenty one percent twenty seven percent and twenty
nine percent over his last three games. Washington is also
playing more in the slot. He's actually played three games
(08:56):
this year with a slot rate of fifty percent or greater.
In those games, he's had targetshers a twenty nine percent,
twenty seven percent, and twenty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
That's pretty awesome.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
Now. The Chargers are not a great matchup in general,
but they've been a little bit worse against the slot
versus outside receivers. I will say, though Washington did not
practice on Wednesday, keep an eye on that and Brian
Thomas did. And obviously they have Jacobe Myers now, so
he's a very risky play, but the stability of that
slot role, it's at least been there. The Cowboys are
(09:26):
the worst team against outside wide receivers in all football.
They also allow the most adjusted fantasy points to wide outs.
They get Vegas this week, so that brings me to
two guys one players in this tier. One's a deep sleeper,
but Trey Tucker has not ranked in the top twenty
since Week three. That's actually the only time he's been
higher than wide receiver twenty four in a given week.
That's when he went off for forty one PPR points.
(09:48):
At least we know there's a ceiling with him. He
just hasn't been that productive though. However, He's almost entirely
an outside receiver for Vegas and he's run a route
on a one hundred percent of the team's drop over the
last two weeks. So given that matchup, he makes sense
as a sleeper. And then the deeper play is Tyler Lockett.
I'll just shout him out now. Lockett ran around on
(10:10):
eighty percent of the Raiders dropbacks last week. He saw
a twenty four percent target share. He did have a
sixty four percent slot rate, though, So I do prefer
Trey Tucker to Tyler Lockett, not just because he's gonna
be on the field more, but I like the matchup
more in general. Another wide out to consider is Tesz Johnson.
He's been getting it done on the production front, but
he is a regression candidate. He's played about four to
(10:32):
five p PIERO points per game above expected over the
last month. The Bucks get the Bills this week, though
it's a game that could see some scoring, and Buffalo's
a top half matchup for wide receivers this year by
justin points allowed, I don't love Johnson because he's coming
off a game where he had just an eleven percent
target chair, But you could do worse. Romeo Dobbs hurt
his chest against the Eagles, and that awful Monday night
(10:53):
gaim at least awful from a fantasy perspective. If he
can't go, which it does sound like he's probably gonna
be able to. But if he can't, you could look
at Christian Watson. Even if Romeo Dobbs does play, I
think Watson's a decent play this week. They get a
Giants team that's allowed the tenth most adjusted fantasy points
to wide receivers this year. Watson's seen his route share
(11:14):
gradually rise since he came back from that ACL. It's
been sixty five percent, seventy five percent, and then eighty
three percent over his three.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Games this year.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
It's a really good spot for him at tight end.
I'm rocking with my guy, Theo Johnson, even with Jamis
Winston expected to start against Green Bay. The Packers are
a pretty average opponent for tight ends by adjusted points allowed,
and Johnson has about a twenty percent target share this season.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Since Malik Neighbors.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Went down, he's been at about an eighty seven percent
route share over his last four. He should be involved
and maybe we see some more down the field looks
with Jameis Winston under center, and then I'm gonna go
back to Colson Loveland this week too. His route share
did drop with Cole Comet back last week, but the
Bears get Minnesota in Week eleven. The Vikings have been
above average matchup for tightand this season by justin points allowed,
(12:01):
and they rank second in adjusted target shair allowed to
the position.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Loveland's peripherals weren't really that great last week.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
I'm not gonna lie, but he's been so effective lately
when he's been targeted. You have to imagine the Bears
getta more involved this week than that eleven percent target
chair that he had last week. This final tier of
players includes guys roster and zero to twenty percent of
Yahoo leagues. I've got one quarterback for you. It's a
guy that I've already talked about, but is Jameis Winston.
(12:30):
This is not an amazing spot for Winston. Let's just
be honest. They get the Packers. Green May is a
below average matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed.
This game is in New York, though, and the Giants
likely can't go with a very conservative approach. And Winston's
hit twenty three standard Fantasy points and three of his
last seven starts that came last.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Year with Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
There are a ton of good streaming options this week
to choose from, so you probably don't have to go
this low, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's moderately usable.
We've got some interesting running backs in this group this week.
The first one Sean Tucker. I shouted him out on
the fifteen Transaction Show earlier in the week because he's
seen more work in that Bucks backfield. Over the last
couple of games. He's had running back rush years of
(13:13):
forty forty seven percent. Now, he won't get it done
for you through the air, but the Bucks get the
Bills this week. Buffalo's allowed twenty two running back rushing
yards over expected per game this year.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
That's one of the worst rates in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
They're also a top five opponent for running backs by
justin Fantasy points allowed, so in deeper formats, Tucker might
be okay. We're obviously looking more at backups in this tier.
In one backup who is interesting this week is Emmanuel Wilson.
He's been seeing route shares of like thirty percent or
so consistently over the last month and a half. He
didn't get a ton of run last week and what
(13:47):
was a closer game for Green Bay, but this one
against the Giants could go in the opposite direction hypothetically.
In New York is the second best matchup for running
backs by justin points allowed. Chris Rodriguez is the easiest
go to in this tier at running back. He was
playing as Washington's RB one last week before suffering a
shoulder injury, but it sounds like he's gonna be good
to go this week. If he's seeing a lot of
(14:09):
that early down stuff For Washington, that's big because they
get a Miami team that's been below average against running
backs this year in terms of Fantasy points allowed and
the number of rushing yards they've allowed versus expectation. So
Chris Rodriguez pretty strong sleeper. It doesn't sound like JK.
Dobbins is going to be on the field this week
and probably longer, which means it's R. J. Harvey season,
(14:30):
but we know the Broncos will likely still split that
backfield to some degree. To me, Tyler Biday would only
see a small uptick. Julil McLoughlin would step in and
get more on the ground. Now, my initial reaction was
to say the mcglofflin would be my pick for this
week as the sleeper outside of r J.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Harvey, of course, But.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
The more I've dug into it, the more I think
you might be better off, at least in PPR leagues,
to use Tyler Beiday. The Broncos get the Chiefs and
Kansas City is a bottom five team for running backs
by justin points allowed. But if the Broncos hit a
negative game script, which is very very possible, they could
use more Tyler Bidet. And not only that, but Kansas
City ranks fourth and adjusted target chair allowed to running
(15:11):
backs that also favors Bedey. So I'm gonna lean Bidet
as a PPR option, maybe McLaughlin more in a standard one,
but I expect both to at least touch the ball.
I'm pretty bullish about RJ. Harvey, but it won't only
be RJ. Harvey in that backfield. The Texans are an
extremely tilting team the way they've deployed their rookie wide
receivers this year, very very frustrating. Jaden Higgins has hit
(15:35):
a fifty percent route chare just once with an active
Nico Collins, and it came last week.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
He's now hit.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Target chairs though, despite that of twenty one percent and
sixteen percent and two of his last three. Now, I
could say that Xavier Hutchinson is a sleeper here, but
I'm gonna go with rational coaching and I'm gonna go
with upside and say Higgins. The Texans face the Titans
this week, and Tennessee has been worse against outside receivers
than slot ones, So if you're desperate, maybe Higgins finds
the end zone once again.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
The Dolphins get the Commanders this.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Week, as I've talked about, and Malik Washington gets a
great slot matchup. He's lined up out of the slot
on about half of his routes over the last handful
of weeks, and he's seen about a seventeen percent target
share per game rate since Tyreek Hill went down. I
like him this week because they can take advantage of
when he's in the slot. The Commanders give up the
second most Fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers.
(16:25):
That's according to PFF data, So I don't mind Malik
Washington in a deep deep league. Now, I know you
guys are gonna think that I'm lying, but I was
so close, so close to calling out Jayalen Naylor last
week on this show because Baltimore has not been good
against the slot and then he goes out he has
a monster game, and man, that was so frustrating because
(16:45):
it would have been an awesome, awesome call. I want
to be as good as I possibly can. What can
I say? But I'm going back to him this week.
The Vikings get the Bears, and Chicago's actually been about
average when it comes to fantasy points allowed to perimeter receivers,
but if loat guys, they're third and adjusted points allowed
to the position and their ninth and adjusted slot target
share allowed. Naylor's seen target chairs of seventeen percent and
(17:08):
fifteen percent over his last two I wouldn't be insanely
surprised if he has an OK outing again this week.
Mac Hollands should be on your radar this week. With
Kai Shan Boody sidelined, Hollins is in a thirty percent
target chair.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
This is real.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
He's hit a thirty percent target chair and two of
his last three, and they get a favorable matchup against
the Jets secondary this week that no longer has Sauce Gardner,
so Hollins is definitely in play. So are the Cardinals
wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Junior. He's out this week because
of appendicitis. That's gonna allow Michael Wilson to probably get
more looks. To definitely get more looks. But I really
(17:43):
like Greg Dortsch this week too. They get the forty
nine ers and San Francisco. According to my numbers, they're
the absolute worst team against slot receivers. I'm talking most
adjusted fantasy points allowed and the highest adjusted target chair
allowed to slot guys. Dortsch is definitely not as safe
as Michael Wills. Wilson's the safer play, but I could
see Derch coming through with a big day too, So
(18:06):
both of them are deeper sleepers at tight end this tier.
I'm gonna go with a fifteen transactions guy Dawson Knox,
like I said earlier this week when Dalton Kinkad was sidelined.
Earlier this season, Knock saw a very respectable seventy seven
percent route share. He just faced Atlanta, so the target
shair wasn't very high. Atlanta does that to tight ends.
Despite that, he did find the end zone. Now Buffalo
(18:28):
gets an average to slightly below average matchup against Tampa Bay,
but it's better than that Atlanta won, so I think
Knox can be okay as a streamer. Last week without
Jacobe Myers, the Raiders changed things up a bit and
ran twelve personnel on forty seven percent of their plays.
Prior to that, their twelve personnel rate was twenty seven percent.
That meant a little bit more Michael Mayer. Mayer had
(18:49):
a sixteen percent target share, and now the Raiders get
the Cowboys and what could be a pass heavy, higher
scoring game for them. So as a deep sleeper, Michael
Mayer kind of works. There's also Luke Musgrave. He didn't
come through in Week ten, though he was close to
having an ok day, but he did run a route
on eighty one percent of Jordan Love's dropbacks. Now he
(19:10):
gets the Giants. New York's just an average matchup against
tight ends. Green Bay, though has an implied team total
of twenty six points. It's one of the better marks
in the slate that should give us more confidence in
Musgrave's floor. This week, and then finally I'm gonna go
with John new Smith, but maybe even Pat Fryarmouth. The
last time the Steelers face the Bengals, they really got
their tight ends involved. That's because Cincinnati is by far,
(19:33):
by far the worst team in football at defending tight ends.
They ring first and adjusted target share allowed to the
position and their first and adjusted points allowed.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Team tight ends.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
When facing Cincinnati, they scored nine and a half more
pper points per game than their season long average.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
That's by far the biggest margin in the league.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
Smith is my pick just because he's been running more
routes than the other tight ends this season, but Pat
Fryarmouth he could be a decent deep sleeper as well. Now,
as for the the defenses this week, we'll go with
Atlanta against Carolina, like I said earlier in the week,
Chicago against Minnesota given the way the Vikings offense has
been playing, and actually every defense against JJ McCarthy has
been a top twelve defense this year in his four starts.
(20:13):
And then I don't really mind Kansas City against Denver,
so that's more of a Denver is just a twenty
point imply team total type of play as opposed to
one where I think Kansas City gets a lot of
sacks in the game. Honestly, though, it's a pretty tough
week for defensive streaming. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
(20:34):
you are mestarting fourrea pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and don't follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk
to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
J J Zacher reson.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten
fifty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks
for tuning in. I'd been running really hot with this
Sleeper show heading into last week. I'm talking like four
straight awesome weeks, and i knew that last week was
gonna be tough, and so there were a few more
misses than I've had over the last month, but I'm
(00:32):
still pretty happy overall with how things went. On the
bad side, Sam Darnold was a horrible pick, Romeo Dobbs
was two, Kyle Pitts couldn't get going, and then a
lot of the deep sleepers they didn't do that much
at all either. I'm talking Jalen Lane, Zavier Lagette, Jerry McNichols,
and AJ Barner. But Jackson Dart was great. Aaron Jones
came through with almost sixteen PPR points, Troy Franklin had fifteen,
(00:55):
Wandel Robinson and Darius Slayton were both over twelve. Alec
Pierce had a big game, Parker Washington was solid, and
the mid tier tight ends. My goodness, every single one
of them scored at least nine and a half PPR points,
but four of the five hit fourteen and a half
PPR points, those four being Theo Johnson, Juwan Johnson, Kay
dott And and Dalton Schultz, Marcus Mariot and Jacoby Brissett. They
(01:18):
were good deep quarterback plays too, and Kyle Williams he
saved his day with that big touchdown. So no, it
wasn't as good as some of the other recent weeks,
but with what I was working with, I'm happy with
those results. And by the way, I went to Twitter
and I asked if people wanted to keep hearing about
these hits and misses to open up the Sleeper show,
and eighty percent of you said to keep the recap.
(01:39):
So I'm keeping the recap. The people have spoken. Now
let's move on to Week eleven. We'll start as usual
by looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo leagues, and that quarterback I have two for
you in this tier. One of them is Joe Flacco.
Flacco has been the QB one in fantasy football since
he was traded to Cincinnati. He's averaging about twenty five
(02:01):
standard Fantasy points per game. That alone is tough to bench.
But he's also facing Pittsburgh, a team he destroyed back
in Week seven. I'd expect the Steelers defense to have
better answers in this game, and it's in Pittsburgh too,
But they're top ten matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy
points allowed, So Flacco can find your lineup now if
you want a high variance option JJ McCarthy. On paper,
(02:23):
he's in a good spot. The Vikings get the Bears
this week. They have a team total over twenty five points,
and they're at home and Chicago is the fourth best
matchup this season by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. They've
a looted about twenty seven passing yards over expected per
game this year. I know McCarthy hasn't gotten it done,
but it could be a get right game for him.
(02:44):
At running back, I've got one player in this tier
for you, and it's Woody Marks. I think people should
be excited about what Marks did last week on the
usage front, but one week that's not a trend yet
and this week will be a good test for that.
The Texans their seven point favorites against a Titans team
that's allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to running
backs this year. We saw Marx give us an RB
(03:05):
six performance against Tennessee the last time these two teams meant.
But I do think there's at least some risk that
we see more Nick Chubb this weekend than we did
last week. But more optimistically, if Marx gets the same
workload week over week, he could smash. We're talking about
a seventy four percent running back rush share, a fifty
five percent routchare, and one of the best matchups in
(03:25):
the league for running backs, so he's a good option
at wide.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Receiver in this group.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
I'm gonna cheat just a little bit and go to
Quentin Johnston just because he's slightly slightly above that eighty
percent mark. Qj's been kind of disappointing after what he
did during the first four weeks of the season, but
he's coming off a game against Pittsburgh where he hit
a thirty percent target share. It was only a five catch,
forty two yard performance, but the matchup this week it's
pretty juicy.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
The Chargers get the Jags.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Jacksonville's completely average when it comes to justin fantasy points
allowed to wide receivers, but They've been specifically bad against
perimeter wideouts. Against the They've given him actually the fewest
wide receiver points per game this year against outside wideouts
their third worst. And Johnston he's run the vast majority
of his routes from the outside. The other guys in
(04:12):
LA are fine, too, but I think Quentin Johnston has
a better game this week than what we've seen over
the last month or so. Jamis Winston is starting for
the Giants. I think this at least keeps the wide
receivers neutral, but it could help Darius Slayton a little
bit more than Wandell Robinson because Winston has his tendency
to throw the ball down the field. He's aggressive in
the matchup. It's better for Slayton this week too. They
(04:35):
get Green Bay and the Packers have been below averages
stopping perimeter wide receivers while above average at stopping slot guys.
So that's a bump for Slayton and a slight downgrade
for wandel Robinson. I think they're closer this week than
many would expect. Just do be aware that Slayton didn't
practice on Wednesday. If he can't go this week, Wandell
Robinson's gonna play more on the outside and he could
(04:56):
just get peppered with targets. Now last in this tier
at tight end is zach Ertz. I know they don't
have Jaden Daniels, but the Commanders get the Dolphins this week.
Miami's the fourth best matchup for tight ends by justin
fantasy points allowed. Ertz is also averaging a strong twenty
two percent target chair per game rate over his last
five It could come together for a nice outing for
zach Ertz. This nice group of sleepers consists of guys
(05:21):
rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. And
again we'll start at quarterback, and there's a lot of
streamers in this group. Aaron Rodgers is the first one
to call out. The Steelers have an implied team total
against Cincinnati of twenty seven and a half points, and
the Bengals are the second best matchup for quarterbacks by
justin points allowed. They're all so terrible at defending tight ends,
(05:42):
and Pittsburgh they target their tight ends a lot. They
have the second highest tight end target share in all
of football. We saw that at work the last time
these two teams played, so it could be a bounce
back game for Aaron Rodgers and this Steelers offense. Jacoby
pursets another one to call out here, He's not Finn,
which is a QB one, a top twelve quarterback in
(06:02):
each of his four starts this year. Now, the Cardinals
get a slightly above average opponent when they face San Francisco.
The pace score in this game is pretty good, so
there could be more plays run, and Arizona has a
twenty three point ply team total even without Marvin Harrison,
Junior Brissette should be solid enough. I still have three
more quarterback streamers for real, and one of them to a.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Tongue of Ioloa.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Tua faces off against a Commander's defense that has been struggling.
The Dolphins have a twenty five point ply team total
and Washington's the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin
points allowed. Quarterbacks have averaged thirty more passing yards per
game when they face the Commanders versus other opponents versus
their season long average. That makes Tua a worthy streamer. Now, look,
(06:47):
I know that Gino Smith is very hard to trust,
but he does get Dallas this week. That's the best
matchup on paper in the entire league. The Cowboys got
some help on defense at the deadline. They're also coming
off their by so there is some risk with this matchup,
but they've also given up fifty eight passing yards per
game this year over expected. If there's one time to
(07:07):
start Gino Smith, it'd be this week, and then the
last one's Marcus Mariota. As I mentioned, the Commanders get
the Dolphins, and Miami's a top ten matchup for quarterbacks
by justin points allowed. Mariota's giving fantasy managers at least
a couple of points per game with his legs, and
Washington is one of the better pressure rate matchups in
the league this week, it's at least above average, so
(07:28):
Mariota is in play. The Cardinals backfield is really up
in the air right now. Bam Knight suffered an ankle
injury last week. I have no idea if he's gonna play.
Is Trey Benson gonna be back this week? It doesn't
sound likely, but I currently have no idea. Let's just
pretend that both of those guys are out. That would
lead the backfield to Michael Carter and Amrio de Mercado,
(07:49):
and it's a matchup against San Francisco a team that's
allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to running backs
this year. Now, we've seen this backfield tandem in the
past and Michael Carter got the edge, but Cacaddo has
actually been running pretty well, so I'd probably just prefer
him if it came down to these two running backs.
If Night is in, we should probably lean that way,
and then Carter is more of a deep play. I've
(08:12):
got Taj Spears in here too. It's not the best
matchup on paper for Tennessee. Houston ranks is a bottom
ten matchup for running backs this season, but the Titans
are big underdogs as they typically are, and the Texans
their tenth this season and adjusted target share allowed to
running backs. As we know, Spears has taken on that
pass catching role in that backfield. He's seen a solid
twelve percent target share over his last four games, so
(08:34):
if you're in a pinch, he could give you some points.
In PPR leagues, it's tough to not go with Parker
Washington right now, regardless of what's happening around him at
the other wide receiver positions. In Jacksonville, he's seen target
shares of twenty one percent twenty seven percent and twenty
nine percent over his last three games. Washington is also
playing more in the slot. He's actually played three games
(08:56):
this year with a slot rate of fifty percent or greater.
In those games, he's had targetshers a twenty nine percent,
twenty seven percent, and twenty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
That's pretty awesome.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
Now. The Chargers are not a great matchup in general,
but they've been a little bit worse against the slot
versus outside receivers. I will say, though Washington did not
practice on Wednesday, keep an eye on that and Brian
Thomas did. And obviously they have Jacobe Myers now, so
he's a very risky play, but the stability of that
slot role, it's at least been there. The Cowboys are
(09:26):
the worst team against outside wide receivers in all football.
They also allow the most adjusted fantasy points to wide outs.
They get Vegas this week, so that brings me to
two guys one players in this tier. One's a deep sleeper,
but Trey Tucker has not ranked in the top twenty
since Week three. That's actually the only time he's been
higher than wide receiver twenty four in a given week.
That's when he went off for forty one PPR points.
(09:48):
At least we know there's a ceiling with him. He
just hasn't been that productive though. However, He's almost entirely
an outside receiver for Vegas and he's run a route
on a one hundred percent of the team's drop over the
last two weeks. So given that matchup, he makes sense
as a sleeper. And then the deeper play is Tyler Lockett.
I'll just shout him out now. Lockett ran around on
(10:10):
eighty percent of the Raiders dropbacks last week. He saw
a twenty four percent target share. He did have a
sixty four percent slot rate, though, So I do prefer
Trey Tucker to Tyler Lockett, not just because he's gonna
be on the field more, but I like the matchup
more in general. Another wide out to consider is Tesz Johnson.
He's been getting it done on the production front, but
he is a regression candidate. He's played about four to
(10:32):
five p PIERO points per game above expected over the
last month. The Bucks get the Bills this week, though
it's a game that could see some scoring, and Buffalo's
a top half matchup for wide receivers this year by
justin points allowed, I don't love Johnson because he's coming
off a game where he had just an eleven percent
target chair, But you could do worse. Romeo Dobbs hurt
his chest against the Eagles, and that awful Monday night
(10:53):
gaim at least awful from a fantasy perspective. If he
can't go, which it does sound like he's probably gonna
be able to. But if he can't, you could look
at Christian Watson. Even if Romeo Dobbs does play, I
think Watson's a decent play this week. They get a
Giants team that's allowed the tenth most adjusted fantasy points
to wide receivers this year. Watson's seen his route share
(11:14):
gradually rise since he came back from that ACL. It's
been sixty five percent, seventy five percent, and then eighty
three percent over his three.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Games this year.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
It's a really good spot for him at tight end.
I'm rocking with my guy, Theo Johnson, even with Jamis
Winston expected to start against Green Bay. The Packers are
a pretty average opponent for tight ends by adjusted points allowed,
and Johnson has about a twenty percent target share this season.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Since Malik Neighbors.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Went down, he's been at about an eighty seven percent
route share over his last four. He should be involved
and maybe we see some more down the field looks
with Jameis Winston under center, and then I'm gonna go
back to Colson Loveland this week too. His route share
did drop with Cole Comet back last week, but the
Bears get Minnesota in Week eleven. The Vikings have been
above average matchup for tightand this season by justin points allowed,
(12:01):
and they rank second in adjusted target shair allowed to
the position.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Loveland's peripherals weren't really that great last week.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
I'm not gonna lie, but he's been so effective lately
when he's been targeted. You have to imagine the Bears
getta more involved this week than that eleven percent target
chair that he had last week. This final tier of
players includes guys roster and zero to twenty percent of
Yahoo leagues. I've got one quarterback for you. It's a
guy that I've already talked about, but is Jameis Winston.
(12:30):
This is not an amazing spot for Winston. Let's just
be honest. They get the Packers. Green May is a
below average matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed.
This game is in New York, though, and the Giants
likely can't go with a very conservative approach. And Winston's
hit twenty three standard Fantasy points and three of his
last seven starts that came last.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
Year with Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
There are a ton of good streaming options this week
to choose from, so you probably don't have to go
this low, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's moderately usable.
We've got some interesting running backs in this group this week.
The first one Sean Tucker. I shouted him out on
the fifteen Transaction Show earlier in the week because he's
seen more work in that Bucks backfield. Over the last
couple of games. He's had running back rush years of
(13:13):
forty forty seven percent. Now, he won't get it done
for you through the air, but the Bucks get the
Bills this week. Buffalo's allowed twenty two running back rushing
yards over expected per game this year.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
That's one of the worst rates in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
They're also a top five opponent for running backs by
justin Fantasy points allowed, so in deeper formats, Tucker might
be okay. We're obviously looking more at backups in this tier.
In one backup who is interesting this week is Emmanuel Wilson.
He's been seeing route shares of like thirty percent or
so consistently over the last month and a half. He
didn't get a ton of run last week and what
(13:47):
was a closer game for Green Bay, but this one
against the Giants could go in the opposite direction hypothetically.
In New York is the second best matchup for running
backs by justin points allowed. Chris Rodriguez is the easiest
go to in this tier at running back. He was
playing as Washington's RB one last week before suffering a
shoulder injury, but it sounds like he's gonna be good
to go this week. If he's seeing a lot of
(14:09):
that early down stuff For Washington, that's big because they
get a Miami team that's been below average against running
backs this year in terms of Fantasy points allowed and
the number of rushing yards they've allowed versus expectation. So
Chris Rodriguez pretty strong sleeper. It doesn't sound like JK.
Dobbins is going to be on the field this week
and probably longer, which means it's R. J. Harvey season,
(14:30):
but we know the Broncos will likely still split that
backfield to some degree. To me, Tyler Biday would only
see a small uptick. Julil McLoughlin would step in and
get more on the ground. Now, my initial reaction was
to say the mcglofflin would be my pick for this
week as the sleeper outside of r J.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Harvey, of course, But.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
The more I've dug into it, the more I think
you might be better off, at least in PPR leagues,
to use Tyler Beiday. The Broncos get the Chiefs and
Kansas City is a bottom five team for running backs
by justin points allowed. But if the Broncos hit a
negative game script, which is very very possible, they could
use more Tyler Bidet. And not only that, but Kansas
City ranks fourth and adjusted target chair allowed to running
(15:11):
backs that also favors Bedey. So I'm gonna lean Bidet
as a PPR option, maybe McLaughlin more in a standard one,
but I expect both to at least touch the ball.
I'm pretty bullish about RJ. Harvey, but it won't only
be RJ. Harvey in that backfield. The Texans are an
extremely tilting team the way they've deployed their rookie wide
receivers this year, very very frustrating. Jaden Higgins has hit
(15:35):
a fifty percent route chare just once with an active
Nico Collins, and it came last week.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
He's now hit.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Target chairs though, despite that of twenty one percent and
sixteen percent and two of his last three. Now, I
could say that Xavier Hutchinson is a sleeper here, but
I'm gonna go with rational coaching and I'm gonna go
with upside and say Higgins. The Texans face the Titans
this week, and Tennessee has been worse against outside receivers
than slot ones, So if you're desperate, maybe Higgins finds
the end zone once again.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
The Dolphins get the Commanders this.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Week, as I've talked about, and Malik Washington gets a
great slot matchup. He's lined up out of the slot
on about half of his routes over the last handful
of weeks, and he's seen about a seventeen percent target
share per game rate since Tyreek Hill went down. I
like him this week because they can take advantage of
when he's in the slot. The Commanders give up the
second most Fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers.
(16:25):
That's according to PFF data, So I don't mind Malik
Washington in a deep deep league. Now, I know you
guys are gonna think that I'm lying, but I was
so close, so close to calling out Jayalen Naylor last
week on this show because Baltimore has not been good
against the slot and then he goes out he has
a monster game, and man, that was so frustrating because
(16:45):
it would have been an awesome, awesome call. I want
to be as good as I possibly can. What can
I say? But I'm going back to him this week.
The Vikings get the Bears, and Chicago's actually been about
average when it comes to fantasy points allowed to perimeter receivers,
but if loat guys, they're third and adjusted points allowed
to the position and their ninth and adjusted slot target
share allowed. Naylor's seen target chairs of seventeen percent and
(17:08):
fifteen percent over his last two I wouldn't be insanely
surprised if he has an OK outing again this week.
Mac Hollands should be on your radar this week. With
Kai Shan Boody sidelined, Hollins is in a thirty percent
target chair.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
This is real.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
He's hit a thirty percent target chair and two of
his last three, and they get a favorable matchup against
the Jets secondary this week that no longer has Sauce Gardner,
so Hollins is definitely in play. So are the Cardinals
wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Junior. He's out this week because
of appendicitis. That's gonna allow Michael Wilson to probably get
more looks. To definitely get more looks. But I really
(17:43):
like Greg Dortsch this week too. They get the forty
nine ers and San Francisco. According to my numbers, they're
the absolute worst team against slot receivers. I'm talking most
adjusted fantasy points allowed and the highest adjusted target chair
allowed to slot guys. Dortsch is definitely not as safe
as Michael Wills. Wilson's the safer play, but I could
see Derch coming through with a big day too, So
(18:06):
both of them are deeper sleepers at tight end this tier.
I'm gonna go with a fifteen transactions guy Dawson Knox,
like I said earlier this week when Dalton Kinkad was sidelined.
Earlier this season, Knock saw a very respectable seventy seven
percent route share. He just faced Atlanta, so the target
shair wasn't very high. Atlanta does that to tight ends.
Despite that, he did find the end zone. Now Buffalo
(18:28):
gets an average to slightly below average matchup against Tampa Bay,
but it's better than that Atlanta won, so I think
Knox can be okay as a streamer. Last week without
Jacobe Myers, the Raiders changed things up a bit and
ran twelve personnel on forty seven percent of their plays.
Prior to that, their twelve personnel rate was twenty seven percent.
That meant a little bit more Michael Mayer. Mayer had
(18:49):
a sixteen percent target share, and now the Raiders get
the Cowboys and what could be a pass heavy, higher
scoring game for them. So as a deep sleeper, Michael
Mayer kind of works. There's also Luke Musgrave. He didn't
come through in Week ten, though he was close to
having an ok day, but he did run a route
on eighty one percent of Jordan Love's dropbacks. Now he
(19:10):
gets the Giants. New York's just an average matchup against
tight ends. Green Bay, though has an implied team total
of twenty six points. It's one of the better marks
in the slate that should give us more confidence in
Musgrave's floor. This week, and then finally I'm gonna go
with John new Smith, but maybe even Pat Fryarmouth. The
last time the Steelers face the Bengals, they really got
their tight ends involved. That's because Cincinnati is by far,
(19:33):
by far the worst team in football at defending tight ends.
They ring first and adjusted target share allowed to the
position and their first and adjusted points allowed.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Team tight ends.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
When facing Cincinnati, they scored nine and a half more
pper points per game than their season long average.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
That's by far the biggest margin in the league.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
Smith is my pick just because he's been running more
routes than the other tight ends this season, but Pat
Fryarmouth he could be a decent deep sleeper as well. Now,
as for the the defenses this week, we'll go with
Atlanta against Carolina, like I said earlier in the week,
Chicago against Minnesota given the way the Vikings offense has
been playing, and actually every defense against JJ McCarthy has
been a top twelve defense this year in his four starts.
(20:13):
And then I don't really mind Kansas City against Denver,
so that's more of a Denver is just a twenty
point imply team total type of play as opposed to
one where I think Kansas City gets a lot of
sacks in the game. Honestly, though, it's a pretty tough
week for defensive streaming. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
(20:34):
you are mestarting fourrea pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found,
and don't follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk
to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.
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