November 14, 2025 • 14 mins
Is RJ Harvey a league-winner? Should fantasy managers be buying or selling Brock Purdy? Can Jayden Reed be a starter down the stretch? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera
J J Zacheron. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachary saying
in this episode ten fifty four of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast a classic mailbag pause, thanks for tuning in.
(00:25):
Before I get to the mailbag questions this week, I've
got a favor to ask you. If you check out
the description for this episode, you'll see there's a link
to a survey. That survey shouldn't take that long to
fill out, but it's really really helpful for myself and
David Kitchen, my COO, to get honest feedback from you guys.
Like I said earlier this week, I want Late Round
Fantasy Football, this podcast, the content that I'm doing. I
(00:48):
want those things to be as helpful and entertaining as
they possibly can be. And the best way to do
that is through listening to what's working for you guys
and what's not. So if you could fill it out,
I would greatly greatly appreciate it. Now let's get to
these mailbag questions. The first question is an email. It says, hey,
JJ love the podcast got a couple of hits from
(01:09):
you this year. Awesome. Can you explain your adjusted fantasy
points allowed stat I don't understand it, but you bring
it up every week when talking about matchups. Thanks Isaac. Yeah,
I think this is a good thing to bring up
because people come and go with this show and don't
automatically know exactly what I'm talking about. I adjust a
lot of different metrics, target share, points allowed, rushing yards allowed,
(01:33):
the list goes on. All the adjusting is is adjusting
for strength of opponent, for strength of schedule. So let's
just take the Cowboys against wide receivers this year. They've
allowed over three hundred and sixty p PIER points to
wide receivers in nine games played. But technically, according to
my numbers, the Steelers have actually allowed more points to
wide receivers, like one more point. So we might conclude,
(01:57):
based on the fact that both teams have had their bye,
so on a points per game basis, the Steelers are
technically allowing more points to wide receivers than the Cowboys are.
We might conclude that the Steelers are a better matchup
for wide receivers in terms of fantasy points allowed because
they've technically allowed one more PPR point across the season
to the position at the very least they're really comparable.
(02:20):
But what I do is look at who they've actually
faced and how many fantasy points those teams generally score
as a wide receiver room. So Pittsburgh when you look
at that, they're still bad against wide receivers, but wide
receiver rooms generally, you're scoring seven point six PPR points
per game above their average when they face Pittsburgh wide
receiver rooms. When they face Dallas, they're scoring eleven points
(02:43):
six PPR points per game above that season long average.
That's a pretty significant difference. So I do that for
a lot of metrics to kind of give us a
better sense of who's actually been good and who's actually
been bad. And fantasy points allowed or some other metric
right like target share. A lot of times there's going
to be overlap, like the raw numbers are going to
look a whole lot like the adjusted numbers. But this
(03:05):
gives you a true raw number when thinking about how
well a team might perform above or below expectation based
on how things have gone during a season. And for
the record, all these numbers they're on the late round
Fantasy Football Patreon. This next question is from that patreon
is from Ball Game four, it says, Hi, JJ, what
are your thoughts on Jaden Reid's role when he returns
(03:26):
and an offense lacking of yards after the catch option
in Tuckercraft's absence. I'm curious if you believe there's a
chance for an increased role despite the wide receiver snapcarousel
we typically see from Green Bay. The schedule looks strong
down the stretch. Thanks for all your thoughtful analysis. Look,
I love Jayden Reid. I've been a truther since he
came out of college. I think he's an awesome player.
(03:49):
But the Packers deploy their wide receivers and deployed Jaden
Reid in particular in a really specific way, which is
via the slot, and that leads to fewer routes run
than the other wider. Just to give you some data
with that. Over the offseason, I did some research on
this type of player and Josh Downs is included in
this mix too. They're wide receivers who look the part,
(04:11):
who have great metrics to back it up, but their
teams refuse to give them bigger roles. They're slot guys.
I wrote a newsletter back in early August that was
titled says Jaden Reid's slot only role matter, And what
I found was that it's pretty rare for players with
lower route participation rates like under eighty percent and then
high slot rates above sixty percent to give a significant
(04:33):
production in fantasy football. In fact, we've only had five seasons,
five instances since twenty eleven where a wide receiver was
within those parameters who then finished as a wide receiver
two or better in Fantasy football in points per game.
And when you look at those successes Victor Cruz in
twenty eleven, Keenan Allen in twenty twenty two, Percy Harvin
in twenty eleven, Randall Cobb in twenty twelve, and Hunter
(04:55):
Renfro in twenty twenty one, four of those players scored
at least eight TOUCHDOW. The only one who didn't was
Keenan Allen, but he only played ten games and he
scored four times in those ten games. Their median target
share was also twenty three percent. That's been really hard
to achieve in this current Packers offense, at least across
(05:17):
a large stretch of games. So I guess what I'm
getting at here is that, yes, hypothetically, Tucker Craft being
out the wide receiver room looking like it does. Yes,
Jaden Reid would be a great asset to have, like
potentially top twenty rest of season, that kind of ceiling
hypothetically speaking, and I do think that he's something that
you can stash right now. I almost had him as
(05:38):
an ad on fifteen transactions earlier this week, and to
be fair to read who again, I think he's very talented.
He has an outlier type of profile. He's been so
efficient per route run to start his career. If there's
someone who can kind of buck this trend, I think
he'd be on the short list. But if we're strictly
looking at this from a probability driven lens, in order
(05:59):
for to be a consistent player across a large stretch,
the Packers need to change up his role period. Maybe
they do that post injury. I just wouldn't bet on that,
and that lowers the type of ceiling that I was
just talking about. But look, we know he's capable of
having spiked weeks and generating big plays. Maybe it all
comes together and he's just super efficient down the stretch
(06:20):
while facing what my numbers say is the third best
wide receiver schedule rest of season. Again, you can add him,
especially in deeper leagues. I'm just pointing out that he
does have a cap ceiling in this offense because of
the way they deploy him, and it's unfortunate because he's
a really awesome player. This last question is from Blue
(06:40):
Skies from at zombie Token. It says which teams have
your favorite rest of season schedules for each fantasy position.
So with a question like this, I'm not gonna give
individual player takes. I'm just gonna share what my numbers
show right now. And this is all available in the
late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. Just go to Lateround dot
com Clickpatreon if you're in interested. I even split up
(07:01):
by playoff weeks if you're interested in that. But this
is pre Thursday Night Football adjusted fantasy points allowed schedules
from weeks eleven through seventeen. None of these are going
to be flawless schedules. Each player is bound to have
a bad matchup or two. But here goes at quarterback
right now, the top three they look like Baltimore, Miami,
(07:21):
and New England. And just to reiterate, this is not
just the fantasy playoffs, this is rest of season. At
running back, we've got New England again, and then a
three way tie between the Browns, Packers, and Steelers at
wide receiver, Cincinnati's number one, Miami's number two, and then
there are a few teams at number three, Detroit, Green Bay,
and Minnesota. And the reason there are ties here is
(07:44):
because I'm looking at a median opponent during this timeframe.
At tight end, it's Indianapolis, and then Baltimore and then
the New York Jets. So there you have it. You
can see all of the details with these adjusted Fantasy
points allowed numbers on Patreon, like I said, which includes
how many points above or below expectation each team allows.
(08:04):
But that's where we're at rest of season. This last
question is from Patreon. It's from Florian. It says, hi,
JJ brock Purdy looks to have a chance to play
this week. How bullish are you with him rest of season?
So at the time this recording, I don't know if
he's enter out this week, but let's talk about brock
perty After sitting down and thinking about this, I think
(08:26):
Perdy is actually a pretty interesting buy right now for
teams looking at the playoffs. We know he can work
in this system. I mean, there's a reason he was
like a low end QB one, high end QB two
in fantasy drafts this year, Ricky Piersoll's getting healthier, George
Kittle is back, Jwan Jennings is starting to look more
like his twenty twenty four self, Christian McCaffrey's active, and
(08:46):
maybe we even see Brandon Ayuk eventually, and then Kyle Shanahan.
This week, he said that when Brock Purdy is back,
he won't have to change his mobility. He said, quote,
I think if you go tell a guy to not
be mobile and to stay out of situations, it's kind
of hard to be successful. And that was really big
for Party last year. He went from one point seven
(09:07):
points per game via rushing in twenty twenty three to
four point two points per game in twenty twenty four.
It gave him a better floor, even with regression coming.
And then you take all that and you layer on
the schedule in the Fantasy football playoffs. Perdy, if he's
back and ready to rock, he'll face the Titans, Colts,
and Bears. The Titans and Bears those games are in
(09:29):
San Francisco. The Colts game is in Indianapolis, but that's
a dome game. Honestly, guys, whether we see Perdy this
weekend or not, it wouldn't surprise me if I'm talking
about him as a buy candidate on next week's fifteen
Transactions show. The last question this week is from at
the curR Life. It says, what's the upside of RJ
(09:50):
Harvey if JK. Dobbins misses time? Do you see him
having league winning upside? With Sean Payton's offense? How similar
of a player is he to Alvin Kamara. So you'll
hear a lot of RJ. Harvey talk on this week's
Perspectives episode, which drops later today, but I thought it
could add some additional commentary right now or give my
specific take before you hear what's said on that episode.
(10:13):
I liked Harvey as a prospect, but not quite as
much as some others, because there were people out there
who were serious, serious truthers. They loved RJ. Harvey. But
he does check some of the boxes that I care
about for fantasy purposes. He's a capable enough pass catcher,
he's got enough size, and he's insanely explosive. Now, I
will say this, I never really understood the Alvin Kamara
(10:35):
comps I talked about that a bit after he was
drafted to Denver. As prospects, they were pretty different, at
least in my opinion, just analytically via the Zap model.
Alvin Kamara entered the league before turning twenty two years old. RJ.
Harvey was past his twenty fourth birthday. Alvin Kamara had
nine pounds on him, and he's a little bit taller.
(10:56):
Harvey has that stockier build and people forget this, but
Kamara didn't have crazy speed. With his forty Harvey ran
a four to four flat, Kamara was at a four
five six. More importantly, most importantly from a production standpoint,
Kamara had a breakout score of ninety two, which is amazing.
It's great. That's based on age adjusted receiving yards per
(11:17):
team pass attempt. Harvey's was about fifty one. And then
Kamara's best season in pro rated reception CHARE was almost
twenty percent. Harvey's was eleven percent. According to my stuff,
Kamara was the better prospect. We could say that in hindsight, sure,
but I'm staring at the Zapp model right now, and
Alvin Kamara has a Zapp score of about ninety three.
(11:39):
Harvey was at eighty four, despite Harvey having slightly better
draft capital, Alvin Kamara was an incredible pass catching prospect.
I don't think Harvey's that. Harvey's just a different type
of player all around, And I don't think we'd be
making this comparison if he wasn't playing for Sean Payton. Now,
with that being said, I don't think he needs to
(11:59):
be out Kamara for us to feel bullish. Dobbins has
been seeing running back rush shares of eighty three percent
and eighty one percent over the last couple of games.
I mean, on the season, his running back rush are
per game right is about seventy five percent. He's seeing
like three quarters of the team's running back rushes. Now,
I think we're gonna see Julil McLoughlin now sprinkled him
with some ground game stuff, and like I said in
(12:21):
the Sleeper Show, you've got Tyler Biday to do some
of that two minute some of that hurry up stuff.
He's gonna keep stealing some routes. But I don't see
why Harvey can't be like a fifty to sixty percent
running back rush air player in this offense, which could
yield like thirteen to fifteen carries on the ground per game,
and then the problem with Dobbins this year was the
pass catching stuff, but that's less of a problem for RJ. Harvey.
(12:45):
So on top of that work on the ground, maybe
he could be like a ten to twelve percent target
share player. So let's just run through this real quick.
Let's widen our parameters here to forty five to sixty
five percent running back rushares and a nine to thirteen
percent target share. We've had twenty five of those types
of outings from running backs this season. RJ. Harvey actually
got there in Week four. When you average out those
(13:07):
players PPR points in those twenty five instances, you get
thirteen point seven PPR points per game, which I think
intuitively that's not a horrible median outcome outlook for RJ. Harvey,
and then you can kind of work off of that
for the upside of more work for him being really
efficient if those types of things really come together. The
only downside is they get the Chiefs this week and
(13:29):
then the Packers a little bit later in the season
with the Chiefs again coming on Christmas, and that just
depends on how long JK. Dobbins is going to be
out for but it doesn't seem like a short term
injury right now for JK. Dobbins. And there are some
good matchups in there too against the Commanders and Raiders
after this Chiefs game. So yeah, look, I wouldn't expect
like a full blown bellcow type role. I don't think
(13:51):
he's gonna see that kind of production, but I think
fourteen PPR points per game is well within reach and
there's upside with that type of outlook too. That's it
for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are bestwarching for it pretty much anywhere
podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Later today you
(14:14):
get another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'm excited for
you guys to hear that one, and then also at
one pm Eastern on the YouTube channel that's YouTube dot
com slash at LATEROUNDFF, I'll be live with David Kitchen
to do the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. If you
can't watch that on YouTube, if you can't join us,
it will drop in this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Thanks
for listening everyone, Good luck and Week eleven. I'll catch
(14:37):
you next week.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera
J J Zacheron. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachary saying
in this episode ten fifty four of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast a classic mailbag pause, thanks for tuning in.
(00:25):
Before I get to the mailbag questions this week, I've
got a favor to ask you. If you check out
the description for this episode, you'll see there's a link
to a survey. That survey shouldn't take that long to
fill out, but it's really really helpful for myself and
David Kitchen, my COO, to get honest feedback from you guys.
Like I said earlier this week, I want Late Round
Fantasy Football, this podcast, the content that I'm doing. I
(00:48):
want those things to be as helpful and entertaining as
they possibly can be. And the best way to do
that is through listening to what's working for you guys
and what's not. So if you could fill it out,
I would greatly greatly appreciate it. Now let's get to
these mailbag questions. The first question is an email. It says, hey,
JJ love the podcast got a couple of hits from
(01:09):
you this year. Awesome. Can you explain your adjusted fantasy
points allowed stat I don't understand it, but you bring
it up every week when talking about matchups. Thanks Isaac. Yeah,
I think this is a good thing to bring up
because people come and go with this show and don't
automatically know exactly what I'm talking about. I adjust a
lot of different metrics, target share, points allowed, rushing yards allowed,
(01:33):
the list goes on. All the adjusting is is adjusting
for strength of opponent, for strength of schedule. So let's
just take the Cowboys against wide receivers this year. They've
allowed over three hundred and sixty p PIER points to
wide receivers in nine games played. But technically, according to
my numbers, the Steelers have actually allowed more points to
wide receivers, like one more point. So we might conclude,
(01:57):
based on the fact that both teams have had their bye,
so on a points per game basis, the Steelers are
technically allowing more points to wide receivers than the Cowboys are.
We might conclude that the Steelers are a better matchup
for wide receivers in terms of fantasy points allowed because
they've technically allowed one more PPR point across the season
to the position at the very least they're really comparable.
(02:20):
But what I do is look at who they've actually
faced and how many fantasy points those teams generally score
as a wide receiver room. So Pittsburgh when you look
at that, they're still bad against wide receivers, but wide
receiver rooms generally, you're scoring seven point six PPR points
per game above their average when they face Pittsburgh wide
receiver rooms. When they face Dallas, they're scoring eleven points
(02:43):
six PPR points per game above that season long average.
That's a pretty significant difference. So I do that for
a lot of metrics to kind of give us a
better sense of who's actually been good and who's actually
been bad. And fantasy points allowed or some other metric
right like target share. A lot of times there's going
to be overlap, like the raw numbers are going to
look a whole lot like the adjusted numbers. But this
(03:05):
gives you a true raw number when thinking about how
well a team might perform above or below expectation based
on how things have gone during a season. And for
the record, all these numbers they're on the late round
Fantasy Football Patreon. This next question is from that patreon
is from Ball Game four, it says, Hi, JJ, what
are your thoughts on Jaden Reid's role when he returns
(03:26):
and an offense lacking of yards after the catch option
in Tuckercraft's absence. I'm curious if you believe there's a
chance for an increased role despite the wide receiver snapcarousel
we typically see from Green Bay. The schedule looks strong
down the stretch. Thanks for all your thoughtful analysis. Look,
I love Jayden Reid. I've been a truther since he
came out of college. I think he's an awesome player.
(03:49):
But the Packers deploy their wide receivers and deployed Jaden
Reid in particular in a really specific way, which is
via the slot, and that leads to fewer routes run
than the other wider. Just to give you some data
with that. Over the offseason, I did some research on
this type of player and Josh Downs is included in
this mix too. They're wide receivers who look the part,
(04:11):
who have great metrics to back it up, but their
teams refuse to give them bigger roles. They're slot guys.
I wrote a newsletter back in early August that was
titled says Jaden Reid's slot only role matter, And what
I found was that it's pretty rare for players with
lower route participation rates like under eighty percent and then
high slot rates above sixty percent to give a significant
(04:33):
production in fantasy football. In fact, we've only had five seasons,
five instances since twenty eleven where a wide receiver was
within those parameters who then finished as a wide receiver
two or better in Fantasy football in points per game.
And when you look at those successes Victor Cruz in
twenty eleven, Keenan Allen in twenty twenty two, Percy Harvin
in twenty eleven, Randall Cobb in twenty twelve, and Hunter
(04:55):
Renfro in twenty twenty one, four of those players scored
at least eight TOUCHDOW. The only one who didn't was
Keenan Allen, but he only played ten games and he
scored four times in those ten games. Their median target
share was also twenty three percent. That's been really hard
to achieve in this current Packers offense, at least across
(05:17):
a large stretch of games. So I guess what I'm
getting at here is that, yes, hypothetically, Tucker Craft being
out the wide receiver room looking like it does. Yes,
Jaden Reid would be a great asset to have, like
potentially top twenty rest of season, that kind of ceiling
hypothetically speaking, and I do think that he's something that
you can stash right now. I almost had him as
(05:38):
an ad on fifteen transactions earlier this week, and to
be fair to read who again, I think he's very talented.
He has an outlier type of profile. He's been so
efficient per route run to start his career. If there's
someone who can kind of buck this trend, I think
he'd be on the short list. But if we're strictly
looking at this from a probability driven lens, in order
(05:59):
for to be a consistent player across a large stretch,
the Packers need to change up his role period. Maybe
they do that post injury. I just wouldn't bet on that,
and that lowers the type of ceiling that I was
just talking about. But look, we know he's capable of
having spiked weeks and generating big plays. Maybe it all
comes together and he's just super efficient down the stretch
(06:20):
while facing what my numbers say is the third best
wide receiver schedule rest of season. Again, you can add him,
especially in deeper leagues. I'm just pointing out that he
does have a cap ceiling in this offense because of
the way they deploy him, and it's unfortunate because he's
a really awesome player. This last question is from Blue
(06:40):
Skies from at zombie Token. It says which teams have
your favorite rest of season schedules for each fantasy position.
So with a question like this, I'm not gonna give
individual player takes. I'm just gonna share what my numbers
show right now. And this is all available in the
late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. Just go to Lateround dot
com Clickpatreon if you're in interested. I even split up
(07:01):
by playoff weeks if you're interested in that. But this
is pre Thursday Night Football adjusted fantasy points allowed schedules
from weeks eleven through seventeen. None of these are going
to be flawless schedules. Each player is bound to have
a bad matchup or two. But here goes at quarterback
right now, the top three they look like Baltimore, Miami,
(07:21):
and New England. And just to reiterate, this is not
just the fantasy playoffs, this is rest of season. At
running back, we've got New England again, and then a
three way tie between the Browns, Packers, and Steelers at
wide receiver, Cincinnati's number one, Miami's number two, and then
there are a few teams at number three, Detroit, Green Bay,
and Minnesota. And the reason there are ties here is
(07:44):
because I'm looking at a median opponent during this timeframe.
At tight end, it's Indianapolis, and then Baltimore and then
the New York Jets. So there you have it. You
can see all of the details with these adjusted Fantasy
points allowed numbers on Patreon, like I said, which includes
how many points above or below expectation each team allows.
(08:04):
But that's where we're at rest of season. This last
question is from Patreon. It's from Florian. It says, hi,
JJ brock Purdy looks to have a chance to play
this week. How bullish are you with him rest of season?
So at the time this recording, I don't know if
he's enter out this week, but let's talk about brock
perty After sitting down and thinking about this, I think
(08:26):
Perdy is actually a pretty interesting buy right now for
teams looking at the playoffs. We know he can work
in this system. I mean, there's a reason he was
like a low end QB one, high end QB two
in fantasy drafts this year, Ricky Piersoll's getting healthier, George
Kittle is back, Jwan Jennings is starting to look more
like his twenty twenty four self, Christian McCaffrey's active, and
(08:46):
maybe we even see Brandon Ayuk eventually, and then Kyle Shanahan.
This week, he said that when Brock Purdy is back,
he won't have to change his mobility. He said, quote,
I think if you go tell a guy to not
be mobile and to stay out of situations, it's kind
of hard to be successful. And that was really big
for Party last year. He went from one point seven
(09:07):
points per game via rushing in twenty twenty three to
four point two points per game in twenty twenty four.
It gave him a better floor, even with regression coming.
And then you take all that and you layer on
the schedule in the Fantasy football playoffs. Perdy, if he's
back and ready to rock, he'll face the Titans, Colts,
and Bears. The Titans and Bears those games are in
(09:29):
San Francisco. The Colts game is in Indianapolis, but that's
a dome game. Honestly, guys, whether we see Perdy this
weekend or not, it wouldn't surprise me if I'm talking
about him as a buy candidate on next week's fifteen
Transactions show. The last question this week is from at
the curR Life. It says, what's the upside of RJ
(09:50):
Harvey if JK. Dobbins misses time? Do you see him
having league winning upside? With Sean Payton's offense? How similar
of a player is he to Alvin Kamara. So you'll
hear a lot of RJ. Harvey talk on this week's
Perspectives episode, which drops later today, but I thought it
could add some additional commentary right now or give my
specific take before you hear what's said on that episode.
(10:13):
I liked Harvey as a prospect, but not quite as
much as some others, because there were people out there
who were serious, serious truthers. They loved RJ. Harvey. But
he does check some of the boxes that I care
about for fantasy purposes. He's a capable enough pass catcher,
he's got enough size, and he's insanely explosive. Now, I
will say this, I never really understood the Alvin Kamara
(10:35):
comps I talked about that a bit after he was
drafted to Denver. As prospects, they were pretty different, at
least in my opinion, just analytically via the Zap model.
Alvin Kamara entered the league before turning twenty two years old. RJ.
Harvey was past his twenty fourth birthday. Alvin Kamara had
nine pounds on him, and he's a little bit taller.
(10:56):
Harvey has that stockier build and people forget this, but
Kamara didn't have crazy speed. With his forty Harvey ran
a four to four flat, Kamara was at a four
five six. More importantly, most importantly from a production standpoint,
Kamara had a breakout score of ninety two, which is amazing.
It's great. That's based on age adjusted receiving yards per
(11:17):
team pass attempt. Harvey's was about fifty one. And then
Kamara's best season in pro rated reception CHARE was almost
twenty percent. Harvey's was eleven percent. According to my stuff,
Kamara was the better prospect. We could say that in hindsight, sure,
but I'm staring at the Zapp model right now, and
Alvin Kamara has a Zapp score of about ninety three.
(11:39):
Harvey was at eighty four, despite Harvey having slightly better
draft capital, Alvin Kamara was an incredible pass catching prospect.
I don't think Harvey's that. Harvey's just a different type
of player all around, And I don't think we'd be
making this comparison if he wasn't playing for Sean Payton. Now,
with that being said, I don't think he needs to
(11:59):
be out Kamara for us to feel bullish. Dobbins has
been seeing running back rush shares of eighty three percent
and eighty one percent over the last couple of games.
I mean, on the season, his running back rush are
per game right is about seventy five percent. He's seeing
like three quarters of the team's running back rushes. Now,
I think we're gonna see Julil McLoughlin now sprinkled him
with some ground game stuff, and like I said in
(12:21):
the Sleeper Show, you've got Tyler Biday to do some
of that two minute some of that hurry up stuff.
He's gonna keep stealing some routes. But I don't see
why Harvey can't be like a fifty to sixty percent
running back rush air player in this offense, which could
yield like thirteen to fifteen carries on the ground per game,
and then the problem with Dobbins this year was the
pass catching stuff, but that's less of a problem for RJ. Harvey.
(12:45):
So on top of that work on the ground, maybe
he could be like a ten to twelve percent target
share player. So let's just run through this real quick.
Let's widen our parameters here to forty five to sixty
five percent running back rushares and a nine to thirteen
percent target share. We've had twenty five of those types
of outings from running backs this season. RJ. Harvey actually
got there in Week four. When you average out those
(13:07):
players PPR points in those twenty five instances, you get
thirteen point seven PPR points per game, which I think
intuitively that's not a horrible median outcome outlook for RJ. Harvey,
and then you can kind of work off of that
for the upside of more work for him being really
efficient if those types of things really come together. The
only downside is they get the Chiefs this week and
(13:29):
then the Packers a little bit later in the season
with the Chiefs again coming on Christmas, and that just
depends on how long JK. Dobbins is going to be
out for but it doesn't seem like a short term
injury right now for JK. Dobbins. And there are some
good matchups in there too against the Commanders and Raiders
after this Chiefs game. So yeah, look, I wouldn't expect
like a full blown bellcow type role. I don't think
(13:51):
he's gonna see that kind of production, but I think
fourteen PPR points per game is well within reach and
there's upside with that type of outlook too. That's it
for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are bestwarching for it pretty much anywhere
podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and
on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Later today you
(14:14):
get another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'm excited for
you guys to hear that one, and then also at
one pm Eastern on the YouTube channel that's YouTube dot
com slash at LATEROUNDFF, I'll be live with David Kitchen
to do the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. If you
can't watch that on YouTube, if you can't join us,
it will drop in this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Thanks
for listening everyone, Good luck and Week eleven. I'll catch
(14:37):
you next week.
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