November 19, 2025 • 13 mins
On this week's 10 Trends episode, JJ talks about the New England backfield, Puka Nacua's usage, Breece Hall's receiving work, and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha,
Jay Jake Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in
this episode ten fifty six of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to
the trends this week, I just want to remind you
(00:23):
once again to check out the Late Round newsletter. In
that newsletter, you get my written content, you get the
fifteen transactions list to your email inbox. Every week, you
get the data dump, and then at the end of
every week, David Kitchen, my COO, sends a recap of
everything Late Round Fantasy Football did that week. And then
during the offseason there's tons of research articles that I
(00:44):
send you guys via that newsletter. It takes two seconds
to sign up. Just head the Lateround dot com and
click newsletter that's Lateround dot com. Now let's get to
this week's trends. Let's gick off today's episode by looking
at Trayvon Henderson and Ramandre Stevenson, because let's be honest,
this is probably the biggest storyline in fantasy football entering
(01:06):
Week twelve. Assuming Stevenson is able to play No. One
outside the Patriots knows exactly how they're gonna divvy up
this backfield. Running back can be frustrating because we can
do all of this analysis, we can really like a player,
but if a coaching staff wants to do things a
certain way, that analysis doesn't matter. I mean, just look
(01:27):
at how long it took the Buccaneers to give Sean
Tucker more work. What I can tell you is that
Trayvon Henderson has better metrics than Ramandre Stevenson across the board,
and in my opinion, he passes the eye test two.
But Trayvon Henderson is a rushing yards over expected per
rush this year according to next Gen Stats of plus
point six. Stevenson is plus point two. Henderson is an
(01:50):
EPA per rush of plus point zero two. Thanks to fumbles,
Stevenson is minus point three to five. Henderson has gained
ten or more yards on nine percent of his rush attempts.
Stevenson has done it at a seven percent rate. And
you might sit there and you're thinking Henderson's just putting
up better per rush numbers because of some big plays,
(02:13):
some chunk plays. But check out success rate. Success rate
is a binary yes or no. It doesn't care how
successful that run was just if it was successful, and
on the season, Henderson has a forty percent success rate,
Stevenson is at thirty two and a half percent. Just
based on the eye test, the way things are trending
(02:34):
and these numbers, I think we've got a one A
one B situation where Henderson is the one A. And
I said this before and I'll say it again. New
England is a great running back schedule. Rest of season,
both running backs can be fine. I'm actually well ahead
of the market with Ramandre Stevenson because of that fact.
But I do think Henderson deserves that one A job
(02:56):
at this point, just based on the numbers and based
on recent trend Literally last week on this show, I
talked about Carolina's drop back over expected rate and I
mentioned now Tedoha McMillan would be smashing this year if
not for such a run heavy philosophy. According to Fantasy
Lights dropbacks over expected formula, the Panthers entering Week eleven
(03:18):
had just one game this year with a dropbacks over
expected rate above zero percent, meaning in just one game
they were more pass heavy than expected. And it happened
all the way back in Week two and from Week
four through Week ten, their dropbacks over expected rate was
minus twelve percent. That was by far the lowest in football.
(03:38):
In Week eleven, though, the Panthers had a dropbacks over
expected rate of plus eight percent that was by far
their highest to the season. And not only did their
offense get a score on half of their drives, but
Tetero McMillan's peripherals finally gave us that ceiling game that
we've been hoping for. You always need to give an
offense context, but when you see things like target share
(04:01):
and how a team is deploying a player, when that
offense's context changes, this is a really good example of
how it can impact that individual player. Let's just hope
that this becomes a legitimate trend. Ricky Pearsall was back
for the forty nine Ers in Week eleven. Now we
have to take all this with a grain of salt,
because Pearsall was coming off of an injury. The forty
(04:23):
nine Ers probably didn't want him super involved to begin with,
let alone in a blowout. But Pearsaw ran around on
eighty two percent of San Francisco's dropbacks, not bad at all,
but he also only had an eleven and a half
percent target chair and he scored one PPR point. Now,
I dug into this with Fantasy Points data because I
was curious if the team was trying to get him
the ball or not. Turns out, Pearsaw had a zero
(04:46):
percent first read target share against Arizona. George Kittle and
Juwan Jennings were at thirty one percent. Now, I'm not
saying this is a sign of things to come. I'm
just saying it's probably not a bad idea to check
in on this after another game or two to see
if Pearsall clearly isn't a top option for them, or
maybe this was them just trying to get him up
(05:06):
to speed after missing some time. It's a different team
than it was earlier this season when Pearsaul was seeing
twenty nine percent target chairs. So this is a story
that we have to follow. I feel like people don't
realize how good Nico Collins has been. It's definitely been
an up and down year for him. But there's probably
a little bit of anchoring going on with Nico Collins,
(05:29):
assuming he's just not lived up to expectation whatsoever, but
he kind of has kind of. Since Week one, Collins
is averaging sixteen point six PPR points per game. He's
seen target totals of ten, eleven, fifteen, to ten over
his last four Now, like I said with Jayden Higgins
on yesterday's fifteen Transactions episode, the upcoming schedule for the Texans,
(05:53):
it's not anything special, but props to Nico for actually
being a decent fantasy asset when everyone seemed to bury
him at the start of the season. This next trend
kind of a weird one. Breesehall played with Braylan Allen
from weeks one through four. In those games, he never
dip below a fourteen percent target share, not in a
(06:13):
single game, but his running back rush share was seventy
percent per game. From week five through now, Hall's running
back rush share has jumped from seventy percent to eighty
six percent. No surprise there because Braylan Allen is no
longer in the lineup, but his target share has gone
from never dipping below that fourteen percent mark and hovering
the eighteen percent mark to now rarely getting over the
(06:36):
ten percent mark. He's seen a target share per game
rate of just eight percent since Braylan Allen's injury. Now,
you're probably thinking that Hall is running fewer routes, right, well,
that hasn't been the case. He had a forty three
percent route here during the first four weeks, it's forty
two percent since then. One thing that is kind of interesting, though,
is the Jets general intent to get him the ball
(06:58):
through the air. He had a ten point nine percent
first red target share over those first four games, that's
according to Fantasy Points data. Since then, it's gone from
ten point nine percent to four point nine percent. So
the Jets just seemed less interested in getting Breeze haul
the rock through the air, and that's giving him worse
fantasy production overall. Maybe that changes, though with a shift
(07:22):
at quarterback. Keon Coleman was a scratch for the Bills
on Sunday. Apparently there was some off the field stuff
going on, But the Bills also had Josh Palmer back
he hadn't played since Week six, and Buffalo's wide receiver
room it was a mess in Week eleven from a
fantasy perspective. Khalil Shakir was the only Bills wide receiver
(07:44):
with a route share above fifty percent against the Buccaneers,
and he was at sixty eight percent according to PFF data. Meanwhile,
Tyrrel Shavers, Curtis Samuel, Josh Palmer, and Gabe Davis. They
each ran either fifteen or sixteen routes. No more, no less. Yes,
you just can't trust anyone in that wide receiver room,
maybe outside of Khalil Shakir. And it's so crazy that
(08:07):
that's the case, given who's throwing them the ball. Cam
Skanabou is hurt in Week eight, so we have three
games without him. Now, Devin Singletary has thirty two rush
attempts and six targets in those games. Tyrone Tracy has
thirty eight rush attempts and ten targets in those games.
But Devin Singletary has scored thirty five point one PPR
(08:28):
points Tyrone Tracy thirty two point seven. And a key
reason for that discrepancy, despite Tracy seeing more work, is
how they've deployed these backs in the green zone. Devin
Singletary is playing all of their snaps within the opponent's
ten yard line, and during this timeframe he's seen ten
rush attempts from that area of the field. Tyrone Tracy
(08:50):
has zero attempts. If that wasn't the case, we'd feel
a lot better about Tyrone Tracy rest of season. With
Walker's been seeing just a little bit more work of late.
The Seahawks had a week eight. By before that by
Walker was averaging a running back rush heare per game
rate of about fifty two percent. His target share per
(09:10):
game was five percent. Since then, the running back rush share,
it hasn't shifted much. Actually it's dropped by four percentage points.
It's at forty eight percent. But the target share has
gone up to eight percent. And the snap share Walker
just being on the field, that's gotten better. It's gotten
from forty four percent to forty eight percent. Walker was
out snapped by Zach Sharboney and five of their first
(09:32):
six games together, but Walker's seen more snaps than sharps
in each of their last three. Now I mentioned all
this because Mike McDonald said this week that quote, I
think he as in Walker deserves and earning more opportunities
to get the ball, and he should. This is like
Trayvon Henderson versus Ramandre Stevenson. At least analytically, Walker has
(09:52):
a rushing yards over expected per attempt of plus point
one Sharboney minus point three. Walker hasn't e per rush
of minus point one Sharboney minus point one eight. Walker
has a success rate of forty one percent, Sharbonay thirty
six percent. So there's been a small uptick, a really
(10:12):
small uptick in Walker's usage recently, but there's a chance
we see an even bigger one soon. Ceedee Lamb has
now been back from his injury for four games. In
those four games, George Pickens is a target share per
game rate of twenty six percent. He's averaging seventeen point
six PPR points per game after his twenty nine point
outing on Monday Night. Now during the same timeframe, Lamb
(10:36):
has a twenty seven point six percent target share per
game rate, and because of Pickens Week eleven, Lamb is
actually averaging point two points per game less than Pickens
during this stretch. Now, this is not a dig at
Lamb at all. He's a stud rest of season. It's
just to show that George Pickens can definitely still eat
while Ceedee Lamb is in that lineup, and it's great
(10:56):
to see. I thought Monday Night was the best game
of George Pickens's career. The last trend this week is
about the Los Angeles Rams. They're using heavier personnel than usual.
I'm sure you've heard about that all across social media.
Over the last few weeks, they're using more thirteen personnel.
Some of that definitely can be game script related, but regardless,
(11:18):
we've been seeing roughly ten dropbacks per game from the Rams.
With these three tight end sets and Puka Nakua's peripherals,
they've shifted as a result. For instance, from weeks one
through five, Nikua had a routchair of eighty five percent
and a target share of thirty five percent. Since then,
his routchair has been sixty four percent, his target share
twenty one percent. DeVante Adams hasn't seen that big of
(11:42):
a discrepancy. Now, I don't think this is completely personnel driven.
We know Nikua was hurt earlier this year and it
was right within that split, so that's undoubtedly gonna play
a role here. More importantly, the Rams played their first
truly competitive game in weeks and week eleven before that,
they blew out the forty nine ers, they blew out
(12:03):
the Saints, they blew out the Jags, and they beat
the Ravens. That was the game that Nakua was heard in,
And what's encouraging is that in their game against Seattle
this past Sunday, Nikua did see a thirty percent target share,
his best since week four. He also saw a seventy
five percent route share that was his best since week five.
I don't think that's just a coincidence. Game script can
(12:25):
definitely impact this too, but I do think we should
all be aware that when you hear about LA's heavier
personnel usage, it does hurt a player like pukin Akua
and fantasy. I just think it's very easy to over
exaggerate that impact and put way too much emphasis on
just that one single thing. As usual, there's a lot
of things at play. That's it for today's show, though,
(12:48):
Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are by shirting for a pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and don't forget to follow me on
Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks
for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow
with the weekly Sleeper Show.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha,
Jay Jake Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in
this episode ten fifty six of the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to
the trends this week, I just want to remind you
(00:23):
once again to check out the Late Round newsletter. In
that newsletter, you get my written content, you get the
fifteen transactions list to your email inbox. Every week, you
get the data dump, and then at the end of
every week, David Kitchen, my COO, sends a recap of
everything Late Round Fantasy Football did that week. And then
during the offseason there's tons of research articles that I
(00:44):
send you guys via that newsletter. It takes two seconds
to sign up. Just head the Lateround dot com and
click newsletter that's Lateround dot com. Now let's get to
this week's trends. Let's gick off today's episode by looking
at Trayvon Henderson and Ramandre Stevenson, because let's be honest,
this is probably the biggest storyline in fantasy football entering
(01:06):
Week twelve. Assuming Stevenson is able to play No. One
outside the Patriots knows exactly how they're gonna divvy up
this backfield. Running back can be frustrating because we can
do all of this analysis, we can really like a player,
but if a coaching staff wants to do things a
certain way, that analysis doesn't matter. I mean, just look
(01:27):
at how long it took the Buccaneers to give Sean
Tucker more work. What I can tell you is that
Trayvon Henderson has better metrics than Ramandre Stevenson across the board,
and in my opinion, he passes the eye test two.
But Trayvon Henderson is a rushing yards over expected per
rush this year according to next Gen Stats of plus
point six. Stevenson is plus point two. Henderson is an
(01:50):
EPA per rush of plus point zero two. Thanks to fumbles,
Stevenson is minus point three to five. Henderson has gained
ten or more yards on nine percent of his rush attempts.
Stevenson has done it at a seven percent rate. And
you might sit there and you're thinking Henderson's just putting
up better per rush numbers because of some big plays,
(02:13):
some chunk plays. But check out success rate. Success rate
is a binary yes or no. It doesn't care how
successful that run was just if it was successful, and
on the season, Henderson has a forty percent success rate,
Stevenson is at thirty two and a half percent. Just
based on the eye test, the way things are trending
(02:34):
and these numbers, I think we've got a one A
one B situation where Henderson is the one A. And
I said this before and I'll say it again. New
England is a great running back schedule. Rest of season,
both running backs can be fine. I'm actually well ahead
of the market with Ramandre Stevenson because of that fact.
But I do think Henderson deserves that one A job
(02:56):
at this point, just based on the numbers and based
on recent trend Literally last week on this show, I
talked about Carolina's drop back over expected rate and I
mentioned now Tedoha McMillan would be smashing this year if
not for such a run heavy philosophy. According to Fantasy
Lights dropbacks over expected formula, the Panthers entering Week eleven
(03:18):
had just one game this year with a dropbacks over
expected rate above zero percent, meaning in just one game
they were more pass heavy than expected. And it happened
all the way back in Week two and from Week
four through Week ten, their dropbacks over expected rate was
minus twelve percent. That was by far the lowest in football.
(03:38):
In Week eleven, though, the Panthers had a dropbacks over
expected rate of plus eight percent that was by far
their highest to the season. And not only did their
offense get a score on half of their drives, but
Tetero McMillan's peripherals finally gave us that ceiling game that
we've been hoping for. You always need to give an
offense context, but when you see things like target share
(04:01):
and how a team is deploying a player, when that
offense's context changes, this is a really good example of
how it can impact that individual player. Let's just hope
that this becomes a legitimate trend. Ricky Pearsall was back
for the forty nine Ers in Week eleven. Now we
have to take all this with a grain of salt,
because Pearsall was coming off of an injury. The forty
(04:23):
nine Ers probably didn't want him super involved to begin with,
let alone in a blowout. But Pearsaw ran around on
eighty two percent of San Francisco's dropbacks, not bad at all,
but he also only had an eleven and a half
percent target chair and he scored one PPR point. Now,
I dug into this with Fantasy Points data because I
was curious if the team was trying to get him
the ball or not. Turns out, Pearsaw had a zero
(04:46):
percent first read target share against Arizona. George Kittle and
Juwan Jennings were at thirty one percent. Now, I'm not
saying this is a sign of things to come. I'm
just saying it's probably not a bad idea to check
in on this after another game or two to see
if Pearsall clearly isn't a top option for them, or
maybe this was them just trying to get him up
(05:06):
to speed after missing some time. It's a different team
than it was earlier this season when Pearsaul was seeing
twenty nine percent target chairs. So this is a story
that we have to follow. I feel like people don't
realize how good Nico Collins has been. It's definitely been
an up and down year for him. But there's probably
a little bit of anchoring going on with Nico Collins,
(05:29):
assuming he's just not lived up to expectation whatsoever, but
he kind of has kind of. Since Week one, Collins
is averaging sixteen point six PPR points per game. He's
seen target totals of ten, eleven, fifteen, to ten over
his last four Now, like I said with Jayden Higgins
on yesterday's fifteen Transactions episode, the upcoming schedule for the Texans,
(05:53):
it's not anything special, but props to Nico for actually
being a decent fantasy asset when everyone seemed to bury
him at the start of the season. This next trend
kind of a weird one. Breesehall played with Braylan Allen
from weeks one through four. In those games, he never
dip below a fourteen percent target share, not in a
(06:13):
single game, but his running back rush share was seventy
percent per game. From week five through now, Hall's running
back rush share has jumped from seventy percent to eighty
six percent. No surprise there because Braylan Allen is no
longer in the lineup, but his target share has gone
from never dipping below that fourteen percent mark and hovering
the eighteen percent mark to now rarely getting over the
(06:36):
ten percent mark. He's seen a target share per game
rate of just eight percent since Braylan Allen's injury. Now,
you're probably thinking that Hall is running fewer routes, right, well,
that hasn't been the case. He had a forty three
percent route here during the first four weeks, it's forty
two percent since then. One thing that is kind of interesting, though,
is the Jets general intent to get him the ball
(06:58):
through the air. He had a ten point nine percent
first red target share over those first four games, that's
according to Fantasy Points data. Since then, it's gone from
ten point nine percent to four point nine percent. So
the Jets just seemed less interested in getting Breeze haul
the rock through the air, and that's giving him worse
fantasy production overall. Maybe that changes, though with a shift
(07:22):
at quarterback. Keon Coleman was a scratch for the Bills
on Sunday. Apparently there was some off the field stuff
going on, But the Bills also had Josh Palmer back
he hadn't played since Week six, and Buffalo's wide receiver
room it was a mess in Week eleven from a
fantasy perspective. Khalil Shakir was the only Bills wide receiver
(07:44):
with a route share above fifty percent against the Buccaneers,
and he was at sixty eight percent according to PFF data. Meanwhile,
Tyrrel Shavers, Curtis Samuel, Josh Palmer, and Gabe Davis. They
each ran either fifteen or sixteen routes. No more, no less. Yes,
you just can't trust anyone in that wide receiver room,
maybe outside of Khalil Shakir. And it's so crazy that
(08:07):
that's the case, given who's throwing them the ball. Cam
Skanabou is hurt in Week eight, so we have three
games without him. Now, Devin Singletary has thirty two rush
attempts and six targets in those games. Tyrone Tracy has
thirty eight rush attempts and ten targets in those games.
But Devin Singletary has scored thirty five point one PPR
(08:28):
points Tyrone Tracy thirty two point seven. And a key
reason for that discrepancy, despite Tracy seeing more work, is
how they've deployed these backs in the green zone. Devin
Singletary is playing all of their snaps within the opponent's
ten yard line, and during this timeframe he's seen ten
rush attempts from that area of the field. Tyrone Tracy
(08:50):
has zero attempts. If that wasn't the case, we'd feel
a lot better about Tyrone Tracy rest of season. With
Walker's been seeing just a little bit more work of late.
The Seahawks had a week eight. By before that by
Walker was averaging a running back rush heare per game
rate of about fifty two percent. His target share per
(09:10):
game was five percent. Since then, the running back rush share,
it hasn't shifted much. Actually it's dropped by four percentage points.
It's at forty eight percent. But the target share has
gone up to eight percent. And the snap share Walker
just being on the field, that's gotten better. It's gotten
from forty four percent to forty eight percent. Walker was
out snapped by Zach Sharboney and five of their first
(09:32):
six games together, but Walker's seen more snaps than sharps
in each of their last three. Now I mentioned all
this because Mike McDonald said this week that quote, I
think he as in Walker deserves and earning more opportunities
to get the ball, and he should. This is like
Trayvon Henderson versus Ramandre Stevenson. At least analytically, Walker has
(09:52):
a rushing yards over expected per attempt of plus point
one Sharboney minus point three. Walker hasn't e per rush
of minus point one Sharboney minus point one eight. Walker
has a success rate of forty one percent, Sharbonay thirty
six percent. So there's been a small uptick, a really
(10:12):
small uptick in Walker's usage recently, but there's a chance
we see an even bigger one soon. Ceedee Lamb has
now been back from his injury for four games. In
those four games, George Pickens is a target share per
game rate of twenty six percent. He's averaging seventeen point
six PPR points per game after his twenty nine point
outing on Monday Night. Now during the same timeframe, Lamb
(10:36):
has a twenty seven point six percent target share per
game rate, and because of Pickens Week eleven, Lamb is
actually averaging point two points per game less than Pickens
during this stretch. Now, this is not a dig at
Lamb at all. He's a stud rest of season. It's
just to show that George Pickens can definitely still eat
while Ceedee Lamb is in that lineup, and it's great
(10:56):
to see. I thought Monday Night was the best game
of George Pickens's career. The last trend this week is
about the Los Angeles Rams. They're using heavier personnel than usual.
I'm sure you've heard about that all across social media.
Over the last few weeks, they're using more thirteen personnel.
Some of that definitely can be game script related, but regardless,
(11:18):
we've been seeing roughly ten dropbacks per game from the Rams.
With these three tight end sets and Puka Nakua's peripherals,
they've shifted as a result. For instance, from weeks one
through five, Nikua had a routchair of eighty five percent
and a target share of thirty five percent. Since then,
his routchair has been sixty four percent, his target share
twenty one percent. DeVante Adams hasn't seen that big of
(11:42):
a discrepancy. Now, I don't think this is completely personnel driven.
We know Nikua was hurt earlier this year and it
was right within that split, so that's undoubtedly gonna play
a role here. More importantly, the Rams played their first
truly competitive game in weeks and week eleven before that,
they blew out the forty nine ers, they blew out
(12:03):
the Saints, they blew out the Jags, and they beat
the Ravens. That was the game that Nakua was heard in,
And what's encouraging is that in their game against Seattle
this past Sunday, Nikua did see a thirty percent target share,
his best since week four. He also saw a seventy
five percent route share that was his best since week five.
I don't think that's just a coincidence. Game script can
(12:25):
definitely impact this too, but I do think we should
all be aware that when you hear about LA's heavier
personnel usage, it does hurt a player like pukin Akua
and fantasy. I just think it's very easy to over
exaggerate that impact and put way too much emphasis on
just that one single thing. As usual, there's a lot
of things at play. That's it for today's show, though,
(12:48):
Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are by shirting for a pretty much anywhere podcast
can be found, and don't forget to follow me on
Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks
for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow
with the weekly Sleeper Show.
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