November 20, 2025 • 19 mins
It's a tough week to find start-worthy options on the waiver wire, but JJ digs through some quarterback streamers, running back options, and more on this week's sleepers show.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the last with your host, JJ Zachertha, JJ Zacherson.
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten
point fifty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. As the saying goes, all good
(00:22):
things must come to an end, and my hot streak
with this Sleepers episode mostly ended in Week eleven. Mostly
it actually wasn't like a horrific week, but there were
some spots that were pretty bad, like at quarterback. It
was easily the worst quarterback week of the season. Joe Flacco,
JJ McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers, and Tuatungue Vailoa were all pretty bad.
(00:42):
I did talk about Jacoby Brissett that was good, and
Marcus Mariota was at least usable, but it was a
rough week at quarterback. Running back was actually okay. I'd
actually call it pretty good. The biggest miss was Woody
Marx who couldn't take advantage of a good matchup and
a good workload. But I did talk about Bam Knight,
shot On Tucker went off, Chris Rodriguez was fine, Emmanuel
(01:03):
Wilson he got more work too. That was pretty lucky though,
and then Jelil McLoughlin found the end zone also kind
of lucky, and then at wide receiver it was just fine.
This past week. Wanda Robinson and Quentin Johnston were really
bad calls in that top tier. Tess Johnson didn't do
a thing, but I did call out Trey Tucker, Christian Watson,
Jaden Higgins almost scored double digit PPR points, Matt Collins
(01:24):
was at ten point four, and then Greg Dortch and
Michael Wilson absolutely crushed it tight end very rough. None
of the tight end streamers scored more than Zach Ertz's
eight point two PPR points, and Ertz was a top
tier player, he wasn't even much of a streamer. And
in the defensive streamers they weren't very good either. So
basically the streaming positions they were terrible last week, but
(01:48):
at least running back and wide receiver was decent. Overall,
was like a three to four out of ten kind
of week. Before I'd been hitting like eights and nins consistently.
I'm hoping I can bounce back here in Week twelve.
We'll start with a tier of players who are rostered
in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues and will
kick things off with a couple of quarterbacks, one of
(02:09):
them is Brock Perdy. The forty nine ers have an
implied team total over twenty seven points this week, and
they get more of a neutral to slightly below average
matchup against the Panthers. I think there's some concern here
for maybe a lack of passing volume for the forty
nine ers, but the San Francisco defense is not playing
well at all right now. They rank bottom ten in
the league in yards per game allowed and EPA per
(02:31):
play allowed, so it may keep the volume up for
the offense regardless, though, as we saw in Week eleven,
Perty can get it done with the weapons that he's got.
Sam Darnald is kind of in a similar spot. They
get Tennessee their big favorites, so you've got to worry
a little bit about the passing volume. And we've seen
Donald hit just twelve pass attempts a couple of weeks
ago against Arizona. But Seattle has a twenty seven point
(02:53):
implied team total. If they do score three or four
offensive touchdowns, a couple of those should from a production standpoint,
through the air, and that means Sam Darnold could be
startable this week. Now moving on to running back wood
he Marx was in a good spot last week, yes,
but he's in a great spot this week. Buffalo has
been awful against running backs this year, rank has the
(03:13):
third best opponent for running backs by justin points allowed.
We saw what Sean Tucker did to them last week.
Marx has now seen a seventy four percent and eighty
six percent running back rush share over his last two games.
And even if this game script goes south for Houston,
which is possible, Marx is the one who would likely
find the field in that negative game script. So I
(03:34):
think he makes a lot of sense this week. If
forro Andre Stevenson his back, I don't think he's that
bad of a play. Like I said on yesterday's ten
Trends episode, I do think Trayvon Henderson has earned his
spot as the one A in that backfield, but we
also have no idea at this point. Stevenson's probably gonna
get some goal line looks too, and they get the
best matchup on paper Cincinnati. The Bengals not only have
(03:56):
allowed the most adjusted fantasy points to running backs, but
teams again Cincinnati have seen their running backs rush for
forty two yards above their season long averages. That's also
worse than the league. As long as Josh Jacobs is
out this week, Emmanuel Wilson, he's a reasonable RB two play.
He saw every running back rush after Jacob's injury last week,
(04:17):
and he had a sixty percent route share the match
up against Minnesota. It's not ideal. They rank as a
bottom ten opponent for running backs by justin points allowed,
but volumes should be there for Emmanuel Wilson as long
as Josh Jacobs is sidelined. If Isaiah Pacheco is out again,
then Kareem Hunt is definitely someone to look at. The
Chiefs have a twenty six and a half point imply
(04:37):
team total. They get an average, maybe slightly below average
matchup this week against the Colts, but Hunt's coming off
a game where he saw every single running back rush
for Kansas City. He had a season high sixty one
percent route share. For as much as I want for
Shard Smith to be more involved, and I think he
should be, we can't deny that usage. I definitely didn't
expect the Giants to keep it as close as they
(04:58):
did last week with the Packers, but it's gonna be
harder for them this week as they go to Detroit.
That means Wandel Robinson is definitely in play. He's had
a thirty one percent target share better in three straight
games and in four of his last five. He's averaging
almost ten targets per game over his last five games. Now,
Detroit's not necessarily an amazing matchup for a slot receiver.
(05:20):
It's more neutral to above average, but you can't ignore
that type of volume. Now, this next one's a little
bit more out there. I'm gonna say Rashid Shahed mostly
because I think there's a chance for a big play.
We may not see that much volume through the air
for Seattle this week, like I just talked about with
Sam Darnold, But Tennessee is bad against perimeter wide receivers
(05:41):
and Shahed he saw twenty five percent slot rate last week.
He mostly played on the outside, and we know that
he's a big play threat. And the Titans they've allowed
the highest completion percentage on deep ball throws this year.
I think there's a risk for very very few points
for Rashid Shaheed, There's no doubt about it. But there's
also some big play potential. Michael Wilson's a very obvious
(06:04):
choice in this tier this week. The Cardinals through the
ball a lot last week, Yes, but he still had
a thirty two percent target share, and now Arizona gainst
a Jacksonville team that's been much worse against perimeter wide
receivers than slot once. They've actually allowed bottom five numbers
to slot wide receivers this year, including the fewest adjusted points.
That's why I'm not quite as high on Greg Dorsch
(06:25):
this week, but Wilson. He only ran fifteen percent of
his routes out of the slot last week. With Marvin
Harrison Junior out once again, Wilson's a very solid play.
Alec Pierce doesn't have the best matchup against Kansas City
this week, but his usage is kind of undeniable at
this point. He's got a twenty six percent target share
per game rate over his last four games that's led
(06:45):
to almost fifteen p per points per game. And for
what it's worth, Kansas City may not allow a ton
of deep balls to be thrown on them, but they've
given up the seventh highest twenty plus air yard completion
rate in football this year. That could help Pierce make
a big play. I think you can go to THEO
Johnson if you're hurting a tight end this week. Now
there's a chance we get a lot of passing volume
(07:07):
from the Giants. No matter who's under center for them
in Detroit, they're just a below average matchup for tight ends. Now.
Johnson had his lowest target share in weeks last week
with Jamis Winston, which does make me a little concerned
if Winston does play right now. I have no idea,
but the volume in this game could make THEO Johnson
a reasonable streamer. And look, last week, he still had
(07:28):
a really solid eighty four percent route chair. This X
group of players consists of guys rostered in twenty to
fifty percent of Yahoo League, so we're digging just a
little bit deeper. Jacoby Brissett in this tier, he's a
really good choice at quarterback in my opinion. Since becoming
the starter for Arizona, he finishes the QB seven, twelve, ten,
nine to four in weekly scoring. He's averaging twenty one
(07:51):
standard Fantasy points per game and he hasn't fallen below
nineteen point four. Now he gets a Jacksonville team that's
given up the seventh most adjusted points to quarterbacks this year. Now,
he may not have Marvin Harrison Junior, but Jacksonville has
been a great matchup for tight ends as well. They've
allowed the second most adjusted Fantasy points to that position
and the eighth highest adjusted target share this Cardinals offense.
(08:14):
They target the tight end position at a higher rate
than any other team. This offense runs through Trey McBride.
That should help Jacoby Brissett in this matchup. Now, at
the time of this recording, I don't know if Jalen
Warren's gonna go this week. If he doesn't go, then
Kenneth Gainwell, he's a very obvious play, but Gameboe could
get some run regardless. In Chicago, they're the seventh best
(08:36):
matchup for running backs by justin points allowed, and they're
giving up the twelfth highest adjusted target share per game two.
So it's a good spot for Steelers running backs in general.
I won't lie. I'm a huge Sean Tucker stand like
dating back to when he came out of college. Seeing
him do what he did last week it was awesome
because I'm a big believer in his talent. And while
I do think we could see him go to like
(08:57):
a sixty sixty five percent running back rush share this week,
maybe even higher. And while I do think he's a
reasonable sleeper to call out this week, which is why
I'm calling him out, I do want to at least
be reasonable about this now. This obviously all assumes that
Bucky Irving is sidelined, but the Buccaneers, they go from
facing the Bills, an awesome matchup, to facing the Rams,
(09:17):
which has become the worst matchup on paper by adjusted
points allowed to running backs. And Tucker he hasn't been
that much of a receiving factor. I know he scored
through the air last week, but he's only had a
twenty two percent route share the last couple of weeks.
So you can play him because it's hard to find
waiver wire running backs right now, just volume on the
waiver wire in general. But I wouldn't set your expectations
(09:39):
amazingly high like last week, Beishall. Tuton suffered an ankle
injury against the Chargers last week, which is unfortunate because
he was seeing more work than Travis Etn for most
of that game. If he's able to go this week,
I don't mind him against Arizona. The Cardinals are a
totally average opponent. Against running backs by justin points allowed,
and Tutin was pacing to have over half of Jackxonville's
(10:00):
running back rushes in that game last week, and he
has the upside of seeing goal line work, so keep
him on your radar if he goes. Just like I
talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Taj Spears is
sort of a staple in this tier for me, mostly
because he's gonna get you something each week. That's due
to the fact that Spears has a twelve percent target
chare per game rate over his last five. They get
(10:22):
the Seahawks this week and they're big, big underdogs. Spears
is coming off a game where he ran a round
on over half of the team's dropbacks, so if they trail,
that should benefit Spears. He's played more long down and
distance in two minutes snaps than Tony Pollard since returning
from injury this year. Seattle's also tenth and adjusted target
share allowed to running backs. There's no Mari de Mercado
(10:45):
this week, but Trey Benson's practice window did open, so
maybe he goes. But if not, Bam Knight definitely someone
who could get a decent amount of work. It's not
the easiest matchup against Jacksonville, but the Arizona running back,
the top running back on that team, has averaged almost
three thirteen PPERO points per game over their last six games.
On the projections front, Night would get more of the
(11:06):
early down work, but then Michael Carter he'd be a
deep sleeper, so I'll just call him out here. Carter
ran around on forty nine percent of the team's dropbacks
last week and saw a twelve and a half percent
target share, So we might get some PPR love with
Michael Carter. As long as Trey Benson is out moving
on to wide receiver. It's ugly, it's gross, but Darnel Mooney,
(11:26):
he's got to get a shout with Drake London's sideline
this week. Mooney's been seeing Routchhaars well north of ninety
percent over his last four games, and he's had target
shares of thirty two percent and twenty four percent over
his last two. The production just hasn't been there, but
the usage it has been. Now he gets a Saints
team that's been pretty good at limiting wide receivers in fantasy,
but they've been really above average at stopping slot players
(11:48):
and below average at stopping perimeter once Mooney will go
inside and out, but he'll likely spend more time on
the outside, especially with Drake London out. He's done that
every game this year, so you do worse. I like
Christian Watson again this week. He saw twenty percent of
Green Bay's targets in Week eleven. He's seen his target
share rise each week since coming back from injury. In
(12:10):
Week eight. His row participation rate has been over eighty
percent now in back to back games the Packers. They're
at home against admittedly a tough Minnesota defense for fantasy purposes,
but they've actually given up the second highest completion rate
in football on deep passes this year. Only Tennessee has
been worse. And we know that Christian Watson can get
down the field. Mac Hollins has been getting it done
(12:32):
the last handful of weeks, largely without Kai Shan Boody.
Hollins has seed eleven and a half ppero points per
game over his last four, including a target share per
game rate of about twenty two percent. Kai Shan Boudi, though,
would be my preferred option if he plays this week,
which honestly, it's trending in that direction. The Patriots get
the Bengals, and not only do they have a twenty
(12:53):
eight and a half point implied team total, but Cincinnati
has given up top half numbers to wide receivers this
year by justin points allowed. The Bengals are also allowing
fifty passing yards per game above expected to opposing quarterbacks.
And for the record, I wish I could call out
Hunter Henry on this show, but he's now rostered in
over eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. I guess I'll go
(13:14):
to Tess Johnson in this tier again too. The Rams
are the twelfth best matchup for wide receivers by justin
points allowed, and teams facing LA they generally run three
to four more plays per game than their season long average.
They also tend to see their pass rate increase by
about four percentage points when they face the Rams. One
thing that does scare me is this pressure rate matchup.
(13:34):
It's the toughest one of the week. According to the numbers.
The Rams generate a ton of pressure and the Buccaneers
they have not been great at stopping that at preventing
that pressure. And Johnson He's often used down the field,
so Baker Mayfield may not have time for those plays
to develop. With that being said, Tampa Bay may not
have an easy time running the ball in this game.
(13:55):
That could lead to a lot more volume through the air.
We've seen that in the past with teams against them,
So I don't think Tesz Johnson is a horrible, horrible
play Despite only seeing eleven percent target chairs in back
to back games, I've got no tight ends for you
in this tier, so let's just move on to the
next one. The final group of players consist of guys
(14:15):
rostered and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and
to me, this is the most enjoyable group to research.
Each week, we'll start a quarterback. We'll go with Bryce Young.
As I talked about on the ten Trends episode yesterday,
the Panthers at their best pass rate over expected of
the season in week eleven. Now, I don't know if
that's going to really continue into week twelve and beyond.
What I do know is that the forty nine ers
(14:37):
are a good matchup for Bryce Young. They rank as
the eleventh best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks,
and they've given up seventeen passing yards per game to
quarterbacks over expected The forty nine Ers have suffered all
sorts of injuries this year, both on the defensive and
offensive side of the ball, and that's caused them to
give up a lot of fantasy points to quarterbacks over
(14:57):
the last handful of weeks. In fact, since Week five,
quarterbacks are averaging twenty two point two standard fantasy points
per game against the forty nine ers. So maybe Bryce
Young follows up his strong performance from last week with
another good one at running back. I'm gonna go to
Blake Korum. He's now seen a running back rush here
per game rate of forty three percent. Over his last
(15:17):
four He's averaged eleven and a half rush attemps per
game during that time. We want more positive game scripts
for the Rams in order for Quorum to be utilized well.
And La is a six and a half point home
favorite this week against a Bucks team that ranks the
six best opponent for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed,
so quorum works now. Also in this tier Michael Carter,
(15:39):
but I talked about him earlier. We can move past him.
Let's shift to Keaton Mitchell. Baltimore is a thirteen and
a half point home favorite against the Jets. This week,
giving them a twenty nine point implied team total, the
second highest on the slate. If they get ahead in
this game, there's a chance that we see more Keaton Mitchell.
He's seen at least four rush attempts in each of
his last four but Baltimore hasn't played in the games
(16:01):
crypt like they might see in this one, So there's
room for more volume for Mitchell, and we know that
he's capable of generating some big plays at wide receiver.
With Jamar Chase suspended this week, I'd expect andre Yosi
Vash to get a lot more run for this Bengals team,
at least from a volume standpoint. He's already run a
lot of routes. He's seen multiple games this year with
(16:22):
a ninety percent route chair. But there's gonna be more
target shair opportunity because Jamar Chase is sidelined, and we
can pencil in Jamar Chase with like a thirty percent
target shair. The Bengals get a new England team that's
given up the fourth most adjusted Fantasy points to wide
receivers this year, So Yosi Vash not a bad play
at all. The best slot matchup in football is arguably
(16:42):
the one against San Francisco. They've given up the most
fantasy points of slot wide receivers this year. They have
the second highest adjusted slot target share allowed. It's a
great matchup. The player in Carolina who could take advantage
of that matchup this week is Jalen Coker. He's seen
rout chairs above seventy five percent in each of his
last four games. His slot rate often covers the sixty
(17:02):
percent mark. Like I said with Bryce Young, it's a
good spot for this Panthers passing attack, and maybe Jalen
Coker can take advantage. Luther Burden has the best per
route numbers of any qualified player on the Bears, and
he's starting to see more work. He had a route
chair of sixty one percent this past week that led
to a season high eighteen percent target chair. Now he
(17:24):
gets a Steelers secondary that ranks as the second best
matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed.
Pittsburgh's giving up fifty one passing yards over expected per
game this year. So Luther Burden's in a pretty nice spot.
And then if you wasn't even deeper play. The last
time we saw the Saints Devon Vylay had a one
hundred percent route share. He hadn't been above the fifty
(17:46):
percent mark all year, but in week ten he was
at one hundred percent. The Saints also just released Brandon
Cooks on Wednesday, so Veyley he looks like the number
two guy in that offense right now. Atlanta's at the
best matchup in the world, but they're now middle of
the road and adjust fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
With his route share, you might find some usability with
(18:06):
Veyle aj Barner had awesome peripherals last week twenty six
percent target share, eleven targets and a season high eighty
percent route chair. The Seahawks also threw it more than
they typically throw it, but tight end's really really tough
this week, and those peripherals, if they were to continue,
they can work in most matchups. That's really what this
(18:28):
is about. I don't think Barner is something that's going
to do what he did last week again this week,
but he could be used as a bye week fill
in if need be. After all, Seattle's projected to score
a lot of points at defense this week. I really
do like Vegas Shador Sanders is going to start for Cleveland,
and in his outing last week, he posted the second
(18:48):
lowest completion rate over expected of any quarterback this year.
It's a low total game and Vegas is playing at home,
but there's also Jacksonville against Arizona. I don't mind the
Jags in that spot, and they're Chicago against Pittsburgh. And
I even think that you could use New Orleans this
week against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. So those are
my four streaming defenses for you this week. That's gonna
(19:11):
do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of
you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestworting for
it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow
with the weekly Mailbag show.
This is the last with your host, JJ Zachertha, JJ Zacherson.
What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten
point fifty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Thanks for tuning in. As the saying goes, all good
(00:22):
things must come to an end, and my hot streak
with this Sleepers episode mostly ended in Week eleven. Mostly
it actually wasn't like a horrific week, but there were
some spots that were pretty bad, like at quarterback. It
was easily the worst quarterback week of the season. Joe Flacco,
JJ McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers, and Tuatungue Vailoa were all pretty bad.
(00:42):
I did talk about Jacoby Brissett that was good, and
Marcus Mariota was at least usable, but it was a
rough week at quarterback. Running back was actually okay. I'd
actually call it pretty good. The biggest miss was Woody
Marx who couldn't take advantage of a good matchup and
a good workload. But I did talk about Bam Knight,
shot On Tucker went off, Chris Rodriguez was fine, Emmanuel
(01:03):
Wilson he got more work too. That was pretty lucky though,
and then Jelil McLoughlin found the end zone also kind
of lucky, and then at wide receiver it was just fine.
This past week. Wanda Robinson and Quentin Johnston were really
bad calls in that top tier. Tess Johnson didn't do
a thing, but I did call out Trey Tucker, Christian Watson,
Jaden Higgins almost scored double digit PPR points, Matt Collins
(01:24):
was at ten point four, and then Greg Dortch and
Michael Wilson absolutely crushed it tight end very rough. None
of the tight end streamers scored more than Zach Ertz's
eight point two PPR points, and Ertz was a top
tier player, he wasn't even much of a streamer. And
in the defensive streamers they weren't very good either. So
basically the streaming positions they were terrible last week, but
(01:48):
at least running back and wide receiver was decent. Overall,
was like a three to four out of ten kind
of week. Before I'd been hitting like eights and nins consistently.
I'm hoping I can bounce back here in Week twelve.
We'll start with a tier of players who are rostered
in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues and will
kick things off with a couple of quarterbacks, one of
(02:09):
them is Brock Perdy. The forty nine ers have an
implied team total over twenty seven points this week, and
they get more of a neutral to slightly below average
matchup against the Panthers. I think there's some concern here
for maybe a lack of passing volume for the forty
nine ers, but the San Francisco defense is not playing
well at all right now. They rank bottom ten in
the league in yards per game allowed and EPA per
(02:31):
play allowed, so it may keep the volume up for
the offense regardless, though, as we saw in Week eleven,
Perty can get it done with the weapons that he's got.
Sam Darnald is kind of in a similar spot. They
get Tennessee their big favorites, so you've got to worry
a little bit about the passing volume. And we've seen
Donald hit just twelve pass attempts a couple of weeks
ago against Arizona. But Seattle has a twenty seven point
(02:53):
implied team total. If they do score three or four
offensive touchdowns, a couple of those should from a production standpoint,
through the air, and that means Sam Darnold could be
startable this week. Now moving on to running back wood
he Marx was in a good spot last week, yes,
but he's in a great spot this week. Buffalo has
been awful against running backs this year, rank has the
(03:13):
third best opponent for running backs by justin points allowed.
We saw what Sean Tucker did to them last week.
Marx has now seen a seventy four percent and eighty
six percent running back rush share over his last two games.
And even if this game script goes south for Houston,
which is possible, Marx is the one who would likely
find the field in that negative game script. So I
(03:34):
think he makes a lot of sense this week. If
forro Andre Stevenson his back, I don't think he's that
bad of a play. Like I said on yesterday's ten
Trends episode, I do think Trayvon Henderson has earned his
spot as the one A in that backfield, but we
also have no idea at this point. Stevenson's probably gonna
get some goal line looks too, and they get the
best matchup on paper Cincinnati. The Bengals not only have
(03:56):
allowed the most adjusted fantasy points to running backs, but
teams again Cincinnati have seen their running backs rush for
forty two yards above their season long averages. That's also
worse than the league. As long as Josh Jacobs is
out this week, Emmanuel Wilson, he's a reasonable RB two play.
He saw every running back rush after Jacob's injury last week,
(04:17):
and he had a sixty percent route share the match
up against Minnesota. It's not ideal. They rank as a
bottom ten opponent for running backs by justin points allowed,
but volumes should be there for Emmanuel Wilson as long
as Josh Jacobs is sidelined. If Isaiah Pacheco is out again,
then Kareem Hunt is definitely someone to look at. The
Chiefs have a twenty six and a half point imply
(04:37):
team total. They get an average, maybe slightly below average
matchup this week against the Colts, but Hunt's coming off
a game where he saw every single running back rush
for Kansas City. He had a season high sixty one
percent route share. For as much as I want for
Shard Smith to be more involved, and I think he
should be, we can't deny that usage. I definitely didn't
expect the Giants to keep it as close as they
(04:58):
did last week with the Packers, but it's gonna be
harder for them this week as they go to Detroit.
That means Wandel Robinson is definitely in play. He's had
a thirty one percent target share better in three straight
games and in four of his last five. He's averaging
almost ten targets per game over his last five games. Now,
Detroit's not necessarily an amazing matchup for a slot receiver.
(05:20):
It's more neutral to above average, but you can't ignore
that type of volume. Now, this next one's a little
bit more out there. I'm gonna say Rashid Shahed mostly
because I think there's a chance for a big play.
We may not see that much volume through the air
for Seattle this week, like I just talked about with
Sam Darnold, But Tennessee is bad against perimeter wide receivers
(05:41):
and Shahed he saw twenty five percent slot rate last week.
He mostly played on the outside, and we know that
he's a big play threat. And the Titans they've allowed
the highest completion percentage on deep ball throws this year.
I think there's a risk for very very few points
for Rashid Shaheed, There's no doubt about it. But there's
also some big play potential. Michael Wilson's a very obvious
(06:04):
choice in this tier this week. The Cardinals through the
ball a lot last week, Yes, but he still had
a thirty two percent target share, and now Arizona gainst
a Jacksonville team that's been much worse against perimeter wide
receivers than slot once. They've actually allowed bottom five numbers
to slot wide receivers this year, including the fewest adjusted points.
That's why I'm not quite as high on Greg Dorsch
(06:25):
this week, but Wilson. He only ran fifteen percent of
his routes out of the slot last week. With Marvin
Harrison Junior out once again, Wilson's a very solid play.
Alec Pierce doesn't have the best matchup against Kansas City
this week, but his usage is kind of undeniable at
this point. He's got a twenty six percent target share
per game rate over his last four games that's led
(06:45):
to almost fifteen p per points per game. And for
what it's worth, Kansas City may not allow a ton
of deep balls to be thrown on them, but they've
given up the seventh highest twenty plus air yard completion
rate in football this year. That could help Pierce make
a big play. I think you can go to THEO
Johnson if you're hurting a tight end this week. Now
there's a chance we get a lot of passing volume
(07:07):
from the Giants. No matter who's under center for them
in Detroit, they're just a below average matchup for tight ends. Now.
Johnson had his lowest target share in weeks last week
with Jamis Winston, which does make me a little concerned
if Winston does play right now. I have no idea,
but the volume in this game could make THEO Johnson
a reasonable streamer. And look, last week, he still had
(07:28):
a really solid eighty four percent route chair. This X
group of players consists of guys rostered in twenty to
fifty percent of Yahoo League, so we're digging just a
little bit deeper. Jacoby Brissett in this tier, he's a
really good choice at quarterback in my opinion. Since becoming
the starter for Arizona, he finishes the QB seven, twelve, ten,
nine to four in weekly scoring. He's averaging twenty one
(07:51):
standard Fantasy points per game and he hasn't fallen below
nineteen point four. Now he gets a Jacksonville team that's
given up the seventh most adjusted points to quarterbacks this year. Now,
he may not have Marvin Harrison Junior, but Jacksonville has
been a great matchup for tight ends as well. They've
allowed the second most adjusted Fantasy points to that position
and the eighth highest adjusted target share this Cardinals offense.
(08:14):
They target the tight end position at a higher rate
than any other team. This offense runs through Trey McBride.
That should help Jacoby Brissett in this matchup. Now, at
the time of this recording, I don't know if Jalen
Warren's gonna go this week. If he doesn't go, then
Kenneth Gainwell, he's a very obvious play, but Gameboe could
get some run regardless. In Chicago, they're the seventh best
(08:36):
matchup for running backs by justin points allowed, and they're
giving up the twelfth highest adjusted target share per game two.
So it's a good spot for Steelers running backs in general.
I won't lie. I'm a huge Sean Tucker stand like
dating back to when he came out of college. Seeing
him do what he did last week it was awesome
because I'm a big believer in his talent. And while
I do think we could see him go to like
(08:57):
a sixty sixty five percent running back rush share this week,
maybe even higher. And while I do think he's a
reasonable sleeper to call out this week, which is why
I'm calling him out, I do want to at least
be reasonable about this now. This obviously all assumes that
Bucky Irving is sidelined, but the Buccaneers, they go from
facing the Bills, an awesome matchup, to facing the Rams,
(09:17):
which has become the worst matchup on paper by adjusted
points allowed to running backs. And Tucker he hasn't been
that much of a receiving factor. I know he scored
through the air last week, but he's only had a
twenty two percent route share the last couple of weeks.
So you can play him because it's hard to find
waiver wire running backs right now, just volume on the
waiver wire in general. But I wouldn't set your expectations
(09:39):
amazingly high like last week, Beishall. Tuton suffered an ankle
injury against the Chargers last week, which is unfortunate because
he was seeing more work than Travis Etn for most
of that game. If he's able to go this week,
I don't mind him against Arizona. The Cardinals are a
totally average opponent. Against running backs by justin points allowed,
and Tutin was pacing to have over half of Jackxonville's
(10:00):
running back rushes in that game last week, and he
has the upside of seeing goal line work, so keep
him on your radar if he goes. Just like I
talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Taj Spears is
sort of a staple in this tier for me, mostly
because he's gonna get you something each week. That's due
to the fact that Spears has a twelve percent target
chare per game rate over his last five. They get
(10:22):
the Seahawks this week and they're big, big underdogs. Spears
is coming off a game where he ran a round
on over half of the team's dropbacks, so if they trail,
that should benefit Spears. He's played more long down and
distance in two minutes snaps than Tony Pollard since returning
from injury this year. Seattle's also tenth and adjusted target
share allowed to running backs. There's no Mari de Mercado
(10:45):
this week, but Trey Benson's practice window did open, so
maybe he goes. But if not, Bam Knight definitely someone
who could get a decent amount of work. It's not
the easiest matchup against Jacksonville, but the Arizona running back,
the top running back on that team, has averaged almost
three thirteen PPERO points per game over their last six games.
On the projections front, Night would get more of the
(11:06):
early down work, but then Michael Carter he'd be a
deep sleeper, so I'll just call him out here. Carter
ran around on forty nine percent of the team's dropbacks
last week and saw a twelve and a half percent
target share, So we might get some PPR love with
Michael Carter. As long as Trey Benson is out moving
on to wide receiver. It's ugly, it's gross, but Darnel Mooney,
(11:26):
he's got to get a shout with Drake London's sideline
this week. Mooney's been seeing Routchhaars well north of ninety
percent over his last four games, and he's had target
shares of thirty two percent and twenty four percent over
his last two. The production just hasn't been there, but
the usage it has been. Now he gets a Saints
team that's been pretty good at limiting wide receivers in fantasy,
but they've been really above average at stopping slot players
(11:48):
and below average at stopping perimeter once Mooney will go
inside and out, but he'll likely spend more time on
the outside, especially with Drake London out. He's done that
every game this year, so you do worse. I like
Christian Watson again this week. He saw twenty percent of
Green Bay's targets in Week eleven. He's seen his target
share rise each week since coming back from injury. In
(12:10):
Week eight. His row participation rate has been over eighty
percent now in back to back games the Packers. They're
at home against admittedly a tough Minnesota defense for fantasy purposes,
but they've actually given up the second highest completion rate
in football on deep passes this year. Only Tennessee has
been worse. And we know that Christian Watson can get
down the field. Mac Hollins has been getting it done
(12:32):
the last handful of weeks, largely without Kai Shan Boody.
Hollins has seed eleven and a half ppero points per
game over his last four, including a target share per
game rate of about twenty two percent. Kai Shan Boudi, though,
would be my preferred option if he plays this week,
which honestly, it's trending in that direction. The Patriots get
the Bengals, and not only do they have a twenty
(12:53):
eight and a half point implied team total, but Cincinnati
has given up top half numbers to wide receivers this
year by justin points allowed. The Bengals are also allowing
fifty passing yards per game above expected to opposing quarterbacks.
And for the record, I wish I could call out
Hunter Henry on this show, but he's now rostered in
over eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. I guess I'll go
(13:14):
to Tess Johnson in this tier again too. The Rams
are the twelfth best matchup for wide receivers by justin
points allowed, and teams facing LA they generally run three
to four more plays per game than their season long average.
They also tend to see their pass rate increase by
about four percentage points when they face the Rams. One
thing that does scare me is this pressure rate matchup.
(13:34):
It's the toughest one of the week. According to the numbers.
The Rams generate a ton of pressure and the Buccaneers
they have not been great at stopping that at preventing
that pressure. And Johnson He's often used down the field,
so Baker Mayfield may not have time for those plays
to develop. With that being said, Tampa Bay may not
have an easy time running the ball in this game.
(13:55):
That could lead to a lot more volume through the air.
We've seen that in the past with teams against them,
So I don't think Tesz Johnson is a horrible, horrible
play Despite only seeing eleven percent target chairs in back
to back games, I've got no tight ends for you
in this tier, so let's just move on to the
next one. The final group of players consist of guys
(14:15):
rostered and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and
to me, this is the most enjoyable group to research.
Each week, we'll start a quarterback. We'll go with Bryce Young.
As I talked about on the ten Trends episode yesterday,
the Panthers at their best pass rate over expected of
the season in week eleven. Now, I don't know if
that's going to really continue into week twelve and beyond.
What I do know is that the forty nine ers
(14:37):
are a good matchup for Bryce Young. They rank as
the eleventh best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks,
and they've given up seventeen passing yards per game to
quarterbacks over expected The forty nine Ers have suffered all
sorts of injuries this year, both on the defensive and
offensive side of the ball, and that's caused them to
give up a lot of fantasy points to quarterbacks over
(14:57):
the last handful of weeks. In fact, since Week five,
quarterbacks are averaging twenty two point two standard fantasy points
per game against the forty nine ers. So maybe Bryce
Young follows up his strong performance from last week with
another good one at running back. I'm gonna go to
Blake Korum. He's now seen a running back rush here
per game rate of forty three percent. Over his last
(15:17):
four He's averaged eleven and a half rush attemps per
game during that time. We want more positive game scripts
for the Rams in order for Quorum to be utilized well.
And La is a six and a half point home
favorite this week against a Bucks team that ranks the
six best opponent for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed,
so quorum works now. Also in this tier Michael Carter,
(15:39):
but I talked about him earlier. We can move past him.
Let's shift to Keaton Mitchell. Baltimore is a thirteen and
a half point home favorite against the Jets. This week,
giving them a twenty nine point implied team total, the
second highest on the slate. If they get ahead in
this game, there's a chance that we see more Keaton Mitchell.
He's seen at least four rush attempts in each of
his last four but Baltimore hasn't played in the games
(16:01):
crypt like they might see in this one, So there's
room for more volume for Mitchell, and we know that
he's capable of generating some big plays at wide receiver.
With Jamar Chase suspended this week, I'd expect andre Yosi
Vash to get a lot more run for this Bengals team,
at least from a volume standpoint. He's already run a
lot of routes. He's seen multiple games this year with
(16:22):
a ninety percent route chair. But there's gonna be more
target shair opportunity because Jamar Chase is sidelined, and we
can pencil in Jamar Chase with like a thirty percent
target shair. The Bengals get a new England team that's
given up the fourth most adjusted Fantasy points to wide
receivers this year, So Yosi Vash not a bad play
at all. The best slot matchup in football is arguably
(16:42):
the one against San Francisco. They've given up the most
fantasy points of slot wide receivers this year. They have
the second highest adjusted slot target share allowed. It's a
great matchup. The player in Carolina who could take advantage
of that matchup this week is Jalen Coker. He's seen
rout chairs above seventy five percent in each of his
last four games. His slot rate often covers the sixty
(17:02):
percent mark. Like I said with Bryce Young, it's a
good spot for this Panthers passing attack, and maybe Jalen
Coker can take advantage. Luther Burden has the best per
route numbers of any qualified player on the Bears, and
he's starting to see more work. He had a route
chair of sixty one percent this past week that led
to a season high eighteen percent target chair. Now he
(17:24):
gets a Steelers secondary that ranks as the second best
matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed.
Pittsburgh's giving up fifty one passing yards over expected per
game this year. So Luther Burden's in a pretty nice spot.
And then if you wasn't even deeper play. The last
time we saw the Saints Devon Vylay had a one
hundred percent route share. He hadn't been above the fifty
(17:46):
percent mark all year, but in week ten he was
at one hundred percent. The Saints also just released Brandon
Cooks on Wednesday, so Veyley he looks like the number
two guy in that offense right now. Atlanta's at the
best matchup in the world, but they're now middle of
the road and adjust fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
With his route share, you might find some usability with
(18:06):
Veyle aj Barner had awesome peripherals last week twenty six
percent target share, eleven targets and a season high eighty
percent route chair. The Seahawks also threw it more than
they typically throw it, but tight end's really really tough
this week, and those peripherals, if they were to continue,
they can work in most matchups. That's really what this
(18:28):
is about. I don't think Barner is something that's going
to do what he did last week again this week,
but he could be used as a bye week fill
in if need be. After all, Seattle's projected to score
a lot of points at defense this week. I really
do like Vegas Shador Sanders is going to start for Cleveland,
and in his outing last week, he posted the second
(18:48):
lowest completion rate over expected of any quarterback this year.
It's a low total game and Vegas is playing at home,
but there's also Jacksonville against Arizona. I don't mind the
Jags in that spot, and they're Chicago against Pittsburgh. And
I even think that you could use New Orleans this
week against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. So those are
my four streaming defenses for you this week. That's gonna
(19:11):
do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of
you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late
Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestworting for
it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't
follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late
Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow
with the weekly Mailbag show.
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