November 21, 2025 • 19 mins
On this week's mailbag episode, JJ talks about Bucky Irving's outlook, Chase Brown's production, Bo Nix's struggles, and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
JJ zacher rethon.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten fifty eight
of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
I've got nothing for you to kick off today's show.
Just make sure you're subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to
the newsletter, and make sure you're not yelling at me
when I inevitably get a ton of stuff wrong on
today's show. Nothing but love for all of you. Let's
get to these questions. The first question this week is
from Twitter. It's from at TLW Travis. It says, how
are you viewing Bashall, Tuton, Kyle Manungai, Sean Tucker and
(00:44):
other similar running backs who appear to be earning more
work approaching RB one B for their teams? Who do
you like best rest of season to put on your bench?
So it's kind of hard to know which other similar
running backs you're talking about here, but I can at
least talk through those three guys and give you an
idea of where I stand. I say this to Late
(01:04):
Round subscribers almost weekly when I do my rest of
season rankings. But the hardest part about those rankings is
balancing upside with immediate production. Like Brian Robinson has a
decent amount of upside, but as immediate production, it's not
gonna be there. Like I'm ranking Alvin Kamara ahead of
Blake Korum this week. I believe Kamara is gonna score
more points, but Blake Korum undoubtedly has more upside rest
(01:28):
of season than Alvin Kamara does. If Kyraen Williams were
to get hurt, we're talking about a lead back in
one of the best offensive environments in football.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So how do you rank them?
Speaker 1 (01:37):
I mean, I could argue strongly that there are some
teams out there that would actually be better with Blake
Korum than Alvin Kamara, that that's a better option for
their bench. And I feel the exact same way when
looking at questions like this, I at least go through
a very similar exercise. BEI Jall, Tuton and Kyle Mnungai
are actually in pretty similar situations at this point. And
(01:58):
that's if we assume that Tuton's to continue to see
a lot of work in that backfield like he did
in Week eleven before he got hurt.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But if he keeps seeing that kind of work.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
His backfield split might look like Chicago's, but either way,
you're not like starting Kyle Mnungui every single week as
long as DeAndre Swift is back and healthy.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Even if Manunguy has like a one or two point.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Edge and weekly projection versus Tutin, it still doesn't make
him something that you want to start each and every week.
So from that perspective, you're probably just looking at the
upside case, and the upside case is that Tuton is
a better prospect in my opinion. Of course, who's in
a pretty comparable situation overall. Maybe it's slightly worse because
the Bears have average like point three more PPR points
per game as a backfield this year, but it's overall
(02:42):
comparable enough. And I also think that Tutin has more
big play and receiving ability. That's why I have Tutin
ahead of Kyle Mnungui rest of season now. I had
Sean Tucker a decent bit below those two running backs
in my rest of season rankings this week because those rankings,
he made the assumption that Bucky Irving would be back soon.
(03:02):
But we've been saying that for like a month now,
and it's not like things have gotten that much more
optimistic this week. I think Tucker has worked himself into
a bigger role, and as I'll talk about in a second,
Tampa Bay is a pretty nice rest of season schedule.
The weird thing with Tucker is that if everyone's healthy,
I'd have him last on this list, probably because he
(03:24):
does need multiple things to happen in order for him
to be like that true RB one in his backfield
that Bell Cow for Tutin and Manunguy. We only need
one injury, and we saw that earlier this year with
Kyle Munungui when DeAndre Swift was out. But I think
there's a very real chance that we get more immediate
production from Sean Tucker given this Bucky Irving situation.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
So given everything I just.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Said, you can look at your team, evaluate your team,
and see what you need, because that will dictate which
one of these running backs you should be rostering. And
speaking of Bucky Irving, let's talk about this next question.
This next question from Twitter is from at Loodi Jibouti.
It says, what kind of production do you expect from
Bucky Irving if he reverts to a fifty five percent
(04:09):
or so snapshare player? He was a league winner last
year on a similar share, But I have a hard
time convincing myself he can repeat, and reinjury risk seems high.
Perhaps he's a sell on the positive news. Well, since
his question was sent to me, there hasn't been that
much positive news with Bucky Irving. That's not your fault.
Things have just changed over the last twenty four to
(04:30):
forty eight hours. Not only is Irving's status still totally
up in the air, but now we're getting reports about
him being on more of a snap count when he
does return a ramp up period. But I got about
one thousand Bucky Irving questions this week, So let's just
talk about him, and let's first talk about his usage
when he is healthy, when he's been healthy, forget all
the injury stuff for a second. Bucky Irving's usage before
(04:52):
he went down this year, it was awesome. He saw
no worse than a thirteen percent target share in his
four games, and he was averaging a seventy five percent
running back rush air per game rate. I mean, that's
truly an elite combination. And that was not on a
fifty five percent snapshare. He was closer to seventy seventy
five percent. The snapshare stuff from last year and the
(05:13):
difference between that and what we saw at the beginning
of this season. It was really the pass catching, Like
Bucky had a much more impactful receiving role to start
this season, which is why he was in such a
good spot. Just as an example, so you guys can
wrap your head around this, Bucky hit a fifty percent
route share just three times last year. He's done that
three times this year, and it probably would have been
(05:35):
all four of his games had he not gotten hurt.
So his increased snapshare isn't just him taking on more
work on the ground. It's mostly that they were using
him more as a receiver. We have to hope that
that would continue because that's going to be more sustainable
and more valuable for Bucky Irving, because, yes, what he
did down the stretch last year not going to be
(05:55):
super easy to repeat. When you're as efficient as he
was last year, that's not easy to do year over year.
But I don't see why Bucky Irving can't be a
sixty percent running back rush are player with a ten
percent target share. Those are lower numbers than where he
was at earlier this year, So we're banking on some
of the injury stuff. We're embedding that in his projection,
but that's still very strong within a good offense because
(06:18):
his workload looks so good to start the year. That
shows intent on the Buccaneers end. Now, obviously things have
changed with this injury, but I don't think that means
that Bucky Irving is like a total fifty to fifty
player with Sean Tucker rest of season, as long as
he's fully healthy. Now, obviously the elephant in the room
is that he's not healthy right now. If he was healthy,
(06:39):
he would definitely be playing this week at the time
of this recording. I have no idea if that's the case,
and honestly, it sounds more pessimistic than optimistic. And this
is one of those cases where I know just as
much as you guys do.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I don't have any.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
Inside information on Bucky Irving's injury and when he's back,
Like the report said on Thursday, and how we just
generally view this kind of situation, there's gonna be a
ramp up period and that's a good thing for someone
like Sean Tucker. And why I talked about Tucker having
better immediate production than Beishall, Tooton, and Kyle Manungay, at
least Kyle Manungai. Here's the thing, though, if I'm sitting
(07:15):
there and I'm a playoff team, I don't think I
would be selling Bucky Irving if I need a win
right now. Sure, I can totally understand that.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
And then on the.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
By end, I might buy Bucky Irving if I could
send bench.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Assets for him.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
So buying him isn't out of the question either. It's
just one of those scenarios where you have to know
what's happening with your individual team. We're late in the
season now, this isn't just one of those situations where
it's Week four and we're taking a chance for rest
of season value.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
We know right.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Now where our teams stand. A lot of you have
bye weeks already locked in. You know you're gonna be
a bye week team, and if that's the case, it's
a little bit easier to have Bucky Irving on your bench.
But if you're a five win team, then Bucky Irving
is not helping you at all. But overall, I do
think that there's still a decent chance that we get
(08:08):
really good production from him in the fantasy playoffs, the
Bucks get the Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins in weeks fifteen, sixteen,
and seventeen. Right before that they get the Cardinals in
the Saints. So after this week against the Rams, the
five remaining games for Tampa Bay in this fantasy season,
they're all pretty much average to above average matchups for
running backs. So overall, I think the sentiment here is
(08:32):
to hold tight with Bucky Irving.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Scared money, don't make money.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
But if you absolutely need to sell because you need
to win immediately, I totally get that. But if you're set,
I wouldn't be aggressively trying to sell low. And maybe
that comes back to bite you. Maybe you could get
value right now and he's just going to be out
rest of season.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
We don't know that.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
We don't have that answer, but what we do know
is how they were using Bucky Irving earlier this year,
and what we do know is that Bucky Irving is
a very good running back. The Bucks are a team
that need to stay competitive, and Bucky Irving is their
best running back. So even if he reverts back to
some of his usage from last year because of this
schedule situation, as long as he is healthy, I still
(09:13):
think he's gonna be pretty useful. This last question is
from at Lensen one top f It says, should you
buy into Chase Brown for the playoffs slash possible Joe
Burrow return. Well, I'll say this about Chase Brown his
rest of season's schedule.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
It's awesome. After they get.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Past New England this week, they'll get Baltimore, the eighth
best matchup by jessep points a lot to running backs
Buffalo who's the third best, and this is being recorded
before Thursday Night Football for the record. Then it's Baltimore again,
Miami who's the twelfth best matchup, and then Arizona who's sixteenth.
Literally only plus matchups after this win against the Patriots
this week, the only thing standing in Chase Brown's way
(09:52):
is Samaj p Ryan's ankle. Pee RAN's not gonna go
this week, but Brown's usage over the bengals last two games,
which will come largely without p Ryn, his.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Usage has been insane.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
He's had snap rates of ninety five percent and eighty
three percent. His route shares have been eighty six percent
and eighty three percent. That's amazing for a running back.
He's seen target shares of thirty one percent and twenty
one percent. His running back rush heare is around eighty
five percent. I mean he's seeing elite, elite, elite running
back usage without Samaj p Ryan. If p Rand's back,
(10:24):
we'd likely lose a little bit of that. Now. There's
a chance that Brown plays into more work because he's
playing a lot better. I'm just saying that if you're
going to buy into Chase Brown, which is fine to do,
make sure you're aware that his current usage may not
be his usage during the Fantasy playoffs. There's a chance
of that happening if Samaj pe Rine's back.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
I don't have this strong urge to say to buy
into Brown because I think fantasy managers generally know that
he's getting more work, he's playing better, he's scoring more points,
and Joe Burrow's coming back soon seemingly. But look, if
you want to go for it, you want to trade
for him, I think there's plenty of upside there. There's
definitely reason to do it, and one of those main
reasons is that schedule. The next question is from Blue
(11:07):
Skies from atwith Parks. It says, can I get a
confidence check on bow knicks going into the final stretch
here he had some absolutely monster games, but the past
two have been brutal duds, which doesn't inspire confidence come playoffs. Yeah,
I think there's some reason to be nervous. Part of
the problem is that bow Knicks is just not scrambling
as much. I don't know if this is by choice
(11:29):
or not, but from weeks one through six, he didn't
have a single game with a scramble rate below three percent,
and most of those games were closer to five percent.
One of them was at a fifteen percent scramble rate.
Since then, in his five games, he hasn't reached a
three percent scramble rate once. That's literally what we need
from bow Nicks to be fantasy relevant, because he's twenty
(11:50):
eighth in the NFL right now and completion percentage over expected,
he's twentieth in EPA per dropback. He has not been
a great passer, so really what I'm nervous about is
the lack of rushing. And not only that, Denver has
a bottom ten fantasy playoff schedule according to my numbers
for quarterbacks. So yeah, I'm not super into bo Knicks.
(12:10):
If the rushing was there, I'd be a lot more confident.
The next questions from Twitter is from at David T.
Evans thirty seven. It says, I have some depth that
I can trade away. I need an elite wide receiver
to get me into the playoffs. Who are your favorite
wide receiver targets for the next three weeks? So I'll
just tell you which wide receivers have the best schedules
(12:32):
over the next three weeks according to my numbers. I
talk buys and sells in the fifteen Transaction Show each week,
and I promise you, guys, I'm not hiding anything from you,
but maybe this will give you some inspiration because there
are some interesting teams with some pretty good wide receivers
who have good schedules. Number one is Kansas City. Maybe
you could buy a little bit low on Rashid Rice
(12:54):
and that would fit what you're talking about trying to
get an elite wide receiver. The Chiefs get the Colts, Cowboys,
and then the Texans over their next three Now, obviously
Houston wouldn't be the easiest spot in the world for him,
but Indianapolis in Dallas not bad at all next to Cincinnati.
You probably can't go with Jamar Chase because of that suspension,
but Ti Higgins. Maybe they get the Patriots this week
(13:15):
that's a plus matchup, and then the Ravens and then
a not great matchup against the Bills. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia
are next the Pennsylvania team, so DK Metcalf, Aj Brown,
DeVante Smith. Pittsburgh gets the Bears, Bills, and Ravens, which honestly,
I don't love those matchups. And DK Metcalf He's definitely
not been an elite wide receiver by any means. It's
(13:35):
just that in this case, Baltimore's numbers are being anchored
a little bit by what happened earlier in the season.
The Eagles, though, they get Dallas, Chicago and then the Chargers.
It's not a bad stretch of three games, and then
Detroit is another one all Dome games like I've talked
about on this show, and they get the Giants, Packers,
and Cowboys over their next three. Both Aman Ross, Saint Brown,
(13:56):
and Jamison Williams are on the table with that one.
No t has like three glorious matchups over their next
three games. But those are some teams and players who
could do pretty well during that stretch.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
The last question this week is an.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Email it says HIJJ Love the pod. As we move
past the bye weeks and head towards the playoffs, the
question of carrying two team defenses is an annual tradition.
Analysts often say it's a bad idea that makes sense
if the choice is between a defense and a player
like Blake Korum, who's a clear backup on a strong team.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
But where is the real line.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
If the worst running back on your roster is Bam
Knight and the waiver wires empty, why would you not
drop him and carry two defenses? In theory, if someone
pops up on the wire, you still have a shot
at that player. A bench stash depends on an injury
and on the player being good enough to matter. A
second defense can be a strategic move. Example, use Green
(14:53):
Bay against Minnesota this week and stash San Francisco play
them against Cleveland next week. If you already know you
prefer San Francisco over green Bay in week thirteen, you
remove the first layer of uncertainty that applies to skill players.
At that point, all that remains is analyzing whether the
choice was right, and that same risk exists with bench
stashes that fail all the time. Thanks Dan So look,
(15:18):
I talked about stashing multiple defenses a couple of weeks
ago on this show, and since then, I've gotten a
few messages from people that are sort of along these
exact same lines. So let's just talk about this. When
I give advice on this show, I obviously can't capture
every league iteration and every possibility that's out there. Yes,
if the player you're stashing is someone like I don't know,
(15:39):
Phil MafA, yes, I'd rather roster another defense and play
things one week ahead. Not only does an injury have
to occur and other things have to occur for Phil
MafA to even find the field, but even if he does,
he's probably not a league winning type player given his
receiving profile. But ninety nine percent of people listening to
this show, they're not out there choosing me to a
(16:00):
defense in Phil MafA. Someone like Blake Korum is still
rostered in just fifteen percent of Yahoo leagues, and I
know not in your league. I get it, he's rostered
in all of mine too. But even if a slightly
more hardcore audience is listening to my show right now,
that still means the majority of people have Blake Krum
sitting on their waiver wire. Now, I don't know where
(16:23):
that obvious line is because it also depends on what
the defensive situation looks like in your league. For instance,
I'm in a league where people do hoard defenses. There
are only like six available defenses right now, so I'm
forced to roster multiple defenses. But if your league only
has twelve defenses rostered, then there's less of a necessity
(16:44):
to roster multiple defenses. I try to preach this all
the time with roster management. When you're trying to judge
what to stash on your bench, you should be looking
at what's available on the waiver wire.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
This is most obvious at quarterback. If you have a
fringe quarterback starter and you're wondering if you should roster
a second one, see how many quarterbacks are available on
your waiver wire. If you'd have five to six choices
each week with reasonable projections, then you don't need to
roster a second quarterback. If the best waiver wire quarterback
right now is Mason Rudolph, then yeah, you probably want
(17:19):
to backup. There's nuance to all of this.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
My main point in saying that non defensive stashes are
more important than defenses is that there's a ton of
variance with defenses, and generally speaking, it's a less valuable position.
You're gonna gain a bigger edge in fantasy football if
you have a backup running back who emerges from an injury.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Then if you have a defense that has a good matchup.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
And yes, that injury still has to happen, and chances
are it's not gonna happen, and yes, you could argue
that you could just get that guy off the waiver
wire when that injury occurs, but you could also argue
that you can find a reasonable streaming defense off the
waiver wire without having to stash it, and you can
do that right before your playoff matchup. Really, guys, when
(18:04):
you hear me give advice, I just want you to
do what's most comfortable for you for your league. I'm
not here to be a dictator. I'm here to just
give you some ideas to help you manage your fantasy
teams a little bit better. There's always going to be
a lot of nuance with the things that I say
on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
But hopefully you're getting a good.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Baseline for analysis, and hopefully the things that I say
they're at least making you think a little bit deeper
about this game.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
If you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are by searching for it pretty much
anywhere podcast can be found. Andel follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. As usual,
there's going to be a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping
later today, and then myself and David Kitchen we'll be
live on YouTube YouTube dot com slash at Late Round
FF will be live at one pm Eastern to do
(18:55):
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. You can watch that
immediately on YouTube when we're done, or you can wait
for it to hit this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Regardless,
try to consume it. It's a fun show that we do.
Thanks for listening everyone. Good luck in week twelve. I'll
talk to you next week.
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
JJ zacher rethon.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What's up everyone.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten fifty eight
of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
I've got nothing for you to kick off today's show.
Just make sure you're subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to
the newsletter, and make sure you're not yelling at me
when I inevitably get a ton of stuff wrong on
today's show. Nothing but love for all of you. Let's
get to these questions. The first question this week is
from Twitter. It's from at TLW Travis. It says, how
are you viewing Bashall, Tuton, Kyle Manungai, Sean Tucker and
(00:44):
other similar running backs who appear to be earning more
work approaching RB one B for their teams? Who do
you like best rest of season to put on your bench?
So it's kind of hard to know which other similar
running backs you're talking about here, but I can at
least talk through those three guys and give you an
idea of where I stand. I say this to Late
(01:04):
Round subscribers almost weekly when I do my rest of
season rankings. But the hardest part about those rankings is
balancing upside with immediate production. Like Brian Robinson has a
decent amount of upside, but as immediate production, it's not
gonna be there. Like I'm ranking Alvin Kamara ahead of
Blake Korum this week. I believe Kamara is gonna score
more points, but Blake Korum undoubtedly has more upside rest
(01:28):
of season than Alvin Kamara does. If Kyraen Williams were
to get hurt, we're talking about a lead back in
one of the best offensive environments in football.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So how do you rank them?
Speaker 1 (01:37):
I mean, I could argue strongly that there are some
teams out there that would actually be better with Blake
Korum than Alvin Kamara, that that's a better option for
their bench. And I feel the exact same way when
looking at questions like this, I at least go through
a very similar exercise. BEI Jall, Tuton and Kyle Mnungai
are actually in pretty similar situations at this point. And
(01:58):
that's if we assume that Tuton's to continue to see
a lot of work in that backfield like he did
in Week eleven before he got hurt.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But if he keeps seeing that kind of work.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
His backfield split might look like Chicago's, but either way,
you're not like starting Kyle Mnungui every single week as
long as DeAndre Swift is back and healthy.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Even if Manunguy has like a one or two point.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Edge and weekly projection versus Tutin, it still doesn't make
him something that you want to start each and every week.
So from that perspective, you're probably just looking at the
upside case, and the upside case is that Tuton is
a better prospect in my opinion. Of course, who's in
a pretty comparable situation overall. Maybe it's slightly worse because
the Bears have average like point three more PPR points
per game as a backfield this year, but it's overall
(02:42):
comparable enough. And I also think that Tutin has more
big play and receiving ability. That's why I have Tutin
ahead of Kyle Mnungui rest of season now. I had
Sean Tucker a decent bit below those two running backs
in my rest of season rankings this week because those rankings,
he made the assumption that Bucky Irving would be back soon.
(03:02):
But we've been saying that for like a month now,
and it's not like things have gotten that much more
optimistic this week. I think Tucker has worked himself into
a bigger role, and as I'll talk about in a second,
Tampa Bay is a pretty nice rest of season schedule.
The weird thing with Tucker is that if everyone's healthy,
I'd have him last on this list, probably because he
(03:24):
does need multiple things to happen in order for him
to be like that true RB one in his backfield
that Bell Cow for Tutin and Manunguy. We only need
one injury, and we saw that earlier this year with
Kyle Munungui when DeAndre Swift was out. But I think
there's a very real chance that we get more immediate
production from Sean Tucker given this Bucky Irving situation.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
So given everything I just.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Said, you can look at your team, evaluate your team,
and see what you need, because that will dictate which
one of these running backs you should be rostering. And
speaking of Bucky Irving, let's talk about this next question.
This next question from Twitter is from at Loodi Jibouti.
It says, what kind of production do you expect from
Bucky Irving if he reverts to a fifty five percent
(04:09):
or so snapshare player? He was a league winner last
year on a similar share, But I have a hard
time convincing myself he can repeat, and reinjury risk seems high.
Perhaps he's a sell on the positive news. Well, since
his question was sent to me, there hasn't been that
much positive news with Bucky Irving. That's not your fault.
Things have just changed over the last twenty four to
(04:30):
forty eight hours. Not only is Irving's status still totally
up in the air, but now we're getting reports about
him being on more of a snap count when he
does return a ramp up period. But I got about
one thousand Bucky Irving questions this week, So let's just
talk about him, and let's first talk about his usage
when he is healthy, when he's been healthy, forget all
the injury stuff for a second. Bucky Irving's usage before
(04:52):
he went down this year, it was awesome. He saw
no worse than a thirteen percent target share in his
four games, and he was averaging a seventy five percent
running back rush air per game rate. I mean, that's
truly an elite combination. And that was not on a
fifty five percent snapshare. He was closer to seventy seventy
five percent. The snapshare stuff from last year and the
(05:13):
difference between that and what we saw at the beginning
of this season. It was really the pass catching, Like
Bucky had a much more impactful receiving role to start
this season, which is why he was in such a
good spot. Just as an example, so you guys can
wrap your head around this, Bucky hit a fifty percent
route share just three times last year. He's done that
three times this year, and it probably would have been
(05:35):
all four of his games had he not gotten hurt.
So his increased snapshare isn't just him taking on more
work on the ground. It's mostly that they were using
him more as a receiver. We have to hope that
that would continue because that's going to be more sustainable
and more valuable for Bucky Irving, because, yes, what he
did down the stretch last year not going to be
(05:55):
super easy to repeat. When you're as efficient as he
was last year, that's not easy to do year over year.
But I don't see why Bucky Irving can't be a
sixty percent running back rush are player with a ten
percent target share. Those are lower numbers than where he
was at earlier this year, So we're banking on some
of the injury stuff. We're embedding that in his projection,
but that's still very strong within a good offense because
(06:18):
his workload looks so good to start the year. That
shows intent on the Buccaneers end. Now, obviously things have
changed with this injury, but I don't think that means
that Bucky Irving is like a total fifty to fifty
player with Sean Tucker rest of season, as long as
he's fully healthy. Now, obviously the elephant in the room
is that he's not healthy right now. If he was healthy,
(06:39):
he would definitely be playing this week at the time
of this recording. I have no idea if that's the case,
and honestly, it sounds more pessimistic than optimistic. And this
is one of those cases where I know just as
much as you guys do.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I don't have any.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
Inside information on Bucky Irving's injury and when he's back,
Like the report said on Thursday, and how we just
generally view this kind of situation, there's gonna be a
ramp up period and that's a good thing for someone
like Sean Tucker. And why I talked about Tucker having
better immediate production than Beishall, Tooton, and Kyle Manungay, at
least Kyle Manungai. Here's the thing, though, if I'm sitting
(07:15):
there and I'm a playoff team, I don't think I
would be selling Bucky Irving if I need a win
right now. Sure, I can totally understand that.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
And then on the.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
By end, I might buy Bucky Irving if I could
send bench.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Assets for him.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
So buying him isn't out of the question either. It's
just one of those scenarios where you have to know
what's happening with your individual team. We're late in the
season now, this isn't just one of those situations where
it's Week four and we're taking a chance for rest
of season value.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
We know right.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Now where our teams stand. A lot of you have
bye weeks already locked in. You know you're gonna be
a bye week team, and if that's the case, it's
a little bit easier to have Bucky Irving on your bench.
But if you're a five win team, then Bucky Irving
is not helping you at all. But overall, I do
think that there's still a decent chance that we get
(08:08):
really good production from him in the fantasy playoffs, the
Bucks get the Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins in weeks fifteen, sixteen,
and seventeen. Right before that they get the Cardinals in
the Saints. So after this week against the Rams, the
five remaining games for Tampa Bay in this fantasy season,
they're all pretty much average to above average matchups for
running backs. So overall, I think the sentiment here is
(08:32):
to hold tight with Bucky Irving.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Scared money, don't make money.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
But if you absolutely need to sell because you need
to win immediately, I totally get that. But if you're set,
I wouldn't be aggressively trying to sell low. And maybe
that comes back to bite you. Maybe you could get
value right now and he's just going to be out
rest of season.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
We don't know that.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
We don't have that answer, but what we do know
is how they were using Bucky Irving earlier this year,
and what we do know is that Bucky Irving is
a very good running back. The Bucks are a team
that need to stay competitive, and Bucky Irving is their
best running back. So even if he reverts back to
some of his usage from last year because of this
schedule situation, as long as he is healthy, I still
(09:13):
think he's gonna be pretty useful. This last question is
from at Lensen one top f It says, should you
buy into Chase Brown for the playoffs slash possible Joe
Burrow return. Well, I'll say this about Chase Brown his
rest of season's schedule.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
It's awesome. After they get.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Past New England this week, they'll get Baltimore, the eighth
best matchup by jessep points a lot to running backs
Buffalo who's the third best, and this is being recorded
before Thursday Night Football for the record. Then it's Baltimore again,
Miami who's the twelfth best matchup, and then Arizona who's sixteenth.
Literally only plus matchups after this win against the Patriots
this week, the only thing standing in Chase Brown's way
(09:52):
is Samaj p Ryan's ankle. Pee RAN's not gonna go
this week, but Brown's usage over the bengals last two games,
which will come largely without p Ryn, his.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Usage has been insane.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
He's had snap rates of ninety five percent and eighty
three percent. His route shares have been eighty six percent
and eighty three percent. That's amazing for a running back.
He's seen target shares of thirty one percent and twenty
one percent. His running back rush heare is around eighty
five percent. I mean he's seeing elite, elite, elite running
back usage without Samaj p Ryan. If p Rand's back,
(10:24):
we'd likely lose a little bit of that. Now. There's
a chance that Brown plays into more work because he's
playing a lot better. I'm just saying that if you're
going to buy into Chase Brown, which is fine to do,
make sure you're aware that his current usage may not
be his usage during the Fantasy playoffs. There's a chance
of that happening if Samaj pe Rine's back.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
I don't have this strong urge to say to buy
into Brown because I think fantasy managers generally know that
he's getting more work, he's playing better, he's scoring more points,
and Joe Burrow's coming back soon seemingly. But look, if
you want to go for it, you want to trade
for him, I think there's plenty of upside there. There's
definitely reason to do it, and one of those main
reasons is that schedule. The next question is from Blue
(11:07):
Skies from atwith Parks. It says, can I get a
confidence check on bow knicks going into the final stretch
here he had some absolutely monster games, but the past
two have been brutal duds, which doesn't inspire confidence come playoffs. Yeah,
I think there's some reason to be nervous. Part of
the problem is that bow Knicks is just not scrambling
as much. I don't know if this is by choice
(11:29):
or not, but from weeks one through six, he didn't
have a single game with a scramble rate below three percent,
and most of those games were closer to five percent.
One of them was at a fifteen percent scramble rate.
Since then, in his five games, he hasn't reached a
three percent scramble rate once. That's literally what we need
from bow Nicks to be fantasy relevant, because he's twenty
(11:50):
eighth in the NFL right now and completion percentage over expected,
he's twentieth in EPA per dropback. He has not been
a great passer, so really what I'm nervous about is
the lack of rushing. And not only that, Denver has
a bottom ten fantasy playoff schedule according to my numbers
for quarterbacks. So yeah, I'm not super into bo Knicks.
(12:10):
If the rushing was there, I'd be a lot more confident.
The next questions from Twitter is from at David T.
Evans thirty seven. It says, I have some depth that
I can trade away. I need an elite wide receiver
to get me into the playoffs. Who are your favorite
wide receiver targets for the next three weeks? So I'll
just tell you which wide receivers have the best schedules
(12:32):
over the next three weeks according to my numbers. I
talk buys and sells in the fifteen Transaction Show each week,
and I promise you, guys, I'm not hiding anything from you,
but maybe this will give you some inspiration because there
are some interesting teams with some pretty good wide receivers
who have good schedules. Number one is Kansas City. Maybe
you could buy a little bit low on Rashid Rice
(12:54):
and that would fit what you're talking about trying to
get an elite wide receiver. The Chiefs get the Colts, Cowboys,
and then the Texans over their next three Now, obviously
Houston wouldn't be the easiest spot in the world for him,
but Indianapolis in Dallas not bad at all next to Cincinnati.
You probably can't go with Jamar Chase because of that suspension,
but Ti Higgins. Maybe they get the Patriots this week
(13:15):
that's a plus matchup, and then the Ravens and then
a not great matchup against the Bills. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia
are next the Pennsylvania team, so DK Metcalf, Aj Brown,
DeVante Smith. Pittsburgh gets the Bears, Bills, and Ravens, which honestly,
I don't love those matchups. And DK Metcalf He's definitely
not been an elite wide receiver by any means. It's
(13:35):
just that in this case, Baltimore's numbers are being anchored
a little bit by what happened earlier in the season.
The Eagles, though, they get Dallas, Chicago and then the Chargers.
It's not a bad stretch of three games, and then
Detroit is another one all Dome games like I've talked
about on this show, and they get the Giants, Packers,
and Cowboys over their next three. Both Aman Ross, Saint Brown,
(13:56):
and Jamison Williams are on the table with that one.
No t has like three glorious matchups over their next
three games. But those are some teams and players who
could do pretty well during that stretch.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
The last question this week is an.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Email it says HIJJ Love the pod. As we move
past the bye weeks and head towards the playoffs, the
question of carrying two team defenses is an annual tradition.
Analysts often say it's a bad idea that makes sense
if the choice is between a defense and a player
like Blake Korum, who's a clear backup on a strong team.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
But where is the real line.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
If the worst running back on your roster is Bam
Knight and the waiver wires empty, why would you not
drop him and carry two defenses? In theory, if someone
pops up on the wire, you still have a shot
at that player. A bench stash depends on an injury
and on the player being good enough to matter. A
second defense can be a strategic move. Example, use Green
(14:53):
Bay against Minnesota this week and stash San Francisco play
them against Cleveland next week. If you already know you
prefer San Francisco over green Bay in week thirteen, you
remove the first layer of uncertainty that applies to skill players.
At that point, all that remains is analyzing whether the
choice was right, and that same risk exists with bench
stashes that fail all the time. Thanks Dan So look,
(15:18):
I talked about stashing multiple defenses a couple of weeks
ago on this show, and since then, I've gotten a
few messages from people that are sort of along these
exact same lines. So let's just talk about this. When
I give advice on this show, I obviously can't capture
every league iteration and every possibility that's out there. Yes,
if the player you're stashing is someone like I don't know,
(15:39):
Phil MafA, yes, I'd rather roster another defense and play
things one week ahead. Not only does an injury have
to occur and other things have to occur for Phil
MafA to even find the field, but even if he does,
he's probably not a league winning type player given his
receiving profile. But ninety nine percent of people listening to
this show, they're not out there choosing me to a
(16:00):
defense in Phil MafA. Someone like Blake Korum is still
rostered in just fifteen percent of Yahoo leagues, and I
know not in your league. I get it, he's rostered
in all of mine too. But even if a slightly
more hardcore audience is listening to my show right now,
that still means the majority of people have Blake Krum
sitting on their waiver wire. Now, I don't know where
(16:23):
that obvious line is because it also depends on what
the defensive situation looks like in your league. For instance,
I'm in a league where people do hoard defenses. There
are only like six available defenses right now, so I'm
forced to roster multiple defenses. But if your league only
has twelve defenses rostered, then there's less of a necessity
(16:44):
to roster multiple defenses. I try to preach this all
the time with roster management. When you're trying to judge
what to stash on your bench, you should be looking
at what's available on the waiver wire.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
This is most obvious at quarterback. If you have a
fringe quarterback starter and you're wondering if you should roster
a second one, see how many quarterbacks are available on
your waiver wire. If you'd have five to six choices
each week with reasonable projections, then you don't need to
roster a second quarterback. If the best waiver wire quarterback
right now is Mason Rudolph, then yeah, you probably want
(17:19):
to backup. There's nuance to all of this.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
My main point in saying that non defensive stashes are
more important than defenses is that there's a ton of
variance with defenses, and generally speaking, it's a less valuable position.
You're gonna gain a bigger edge in fantasy football if
you have a backup running back who emerges from an injury.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Then if you have a defense that has a good matchup.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
And yes, that injury still has to happen, and chances
are it's not gonna happen, and yes, you could argue
that you could just get that guy off the waiver
wire when that injury occurs, but you could also argue
that you can find a reasonable streaming defense off the
waiver wire without having to stash it, and you can
do that right before your playoff matchup. Really, guys, when
(18:04):
you hear me give advice, I just want you to
do what's most comfortable for you for your league. I'm
not here to be a dictator. I'm here to just
give you some ideas to help you manage your fantasy
teams a little bit better. There's always going to be
a lot of nuance with the things that I say
on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
But hopefully you're getting a good.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Baseline for analysis, and hopefully the things that I say
they're at least making you think a little bit deeper
about this game.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
If you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
make sure you are by searching for it pretty much
anywhere podcast can be found. Andel follow me on Twitter
and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. As usual,
there's going to be a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping
later today, and then myself and David Kitchen we'll be
live on YouTube YouTube dot com slash at Late Round
FF will be live at one pm Eastern to do
(18:55):
the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. You can watch that
immediately on YouTube when we're done, or you can wait
for it to hit this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Regardless,
try to consume it. It's a fun show that we do.
Thanks for listening everyone. Good luck in week twelve. I'll
talk to you next week.
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