November 26, 2025 • 19 mins
JJ gets you sleepers a little early this week, including a handful of guys you could consider starting to make your Turkey Day that much more enjoyable.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher
Retha j J Zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ
Zacharyesen in this episode ten sixty one of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's
sleeper results were a mixed back. Brock Perty made some
(00:24):
really bad throws against the Panthers. Ormandre Stevenson didn't get
much of his workload back Rashid Shaheed didn't make that
big play that I was hoping for. Alec Pearce didn't
do much, neither did be Shall Tooton and Kaishan Boody
and Bryce Young they both disappointed too. But on the
plus side, Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett they were both usable.
Kareem Hunt, Emmanuel Wilson posted twenty or more PPR points,
(00:45):
Wandel Robinson went off Michael Wilson at another big game.
Kenneth Gainwell scored eighteen, Darnell Mooney made a big play
to save his day, and the defensive streamers they weren't
too bad. It was a pretty average week overall. Now
at today's show, I wasn't able to pick players out
after Waivers ran just because I did this episode earlier
in the week than usual, but I did my best
(01:07):
to give you guys reasonable options within each tier. Let's
do it. We'll kick things out by looking at players
rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. We'll
start with Jordan Love. Love only has one top twenty
performance over his last four games, and those games are
largely without Tucker Kraft. That's definitely a problem. With that
(01:29):
being said, he failed to reach twenty five pass attempts
in each of his last two. That probably won't be
the case on Thanksgiving against the Lions. Detroit has a
lot of top fifteen performance in each of their last
four That may not sound like much, but listen to
the quarterbacks that they faced during this stretch. JJ McCarthy,
Marcus Mariota, Jalen Hurts, and Jamis Winston. They're the tenth
(01:51):
best matchup for quarterbacks this year by justin Fantasy points allowed,
and Green Bay has a solid twenty three and a
half point total this week. It's a nice bounce back
spot for Jordan Love. Jackson Dart is somehow under that
eighty percent mark, and there's a reasonable chance that he
plays this week against the Patriots. The Giants only have
a nineteen and a half implied team total, but New
England's a top ten opponent for quarterbacks this year by
(02:13):
justin fantasy points allowed, and they've allowed sixteen passing yards
per game over expected. Dart has finished as a top
five quarterback option in four of his last five games.
He's averaging almost twenty three standard fantasy points per game
this year, or at least in his starts. I really
don't understand why he's still out there in so many leagues.
(02:34):
And then we're gonna go back to Jacoby Brissett. He's
now given us a QB one performance in all six
of his starts this year, and he gets a Tampa
Bay secondary this week that's given up the ninth most
ad justed fantasy points to quarterbacks. I know it's weird
that he's still a sleeper, but I'm just going by
what the percent roster numbers are telling me. He's a
top twelve play this week. Moving on to running back,
(02:55):
I know that Woody Marks was kind of whatever this
past week, but the usage has now been pretty for
three straight games, and in fantasy football, we have to
follow usage. Houston gets Indianapolis this week. It's a below
average matchup for running backs on paper, but Marx has
seen a seventy seven percent running back rush share per
game rate over his last three and while his target
shares have been sub seven percent during this time, he's
(03:17):
been above a fifty percent route share and two of
those three games. My guess is that that target share
will eventually regress a little bit. Based on that route
share and based on his skill set, He's not like
a smash of a play, but he deserves to be
called out on this show at this moment. I don't
know if a Marian Hampton's gonna be back this week.
If he's not, I'm gonna go with Kamani Videll once again.
(03:40):
He was banged up a little bit the last time
we saw him, but he's given us multiple games of
a ninety percent running back rush share with a Marian
Hampton sideline this year. And the Chargers get a Raiders
defense that ranks as the eighth best matchup for running
backs by justin points allowed. So if Hampton is out,
feel free to use Commani Videll. Kenneth game is a
pretty interesting play. This week. Steelers get the Bills and
(04:01):
we know that Buffalo's bad against the run. They rank
is the fourth best matchup for running backs by justin
fantasy points allowed, and they've basically been a run funnel
for opposing offenses. The Bills have allowed thirty six passing
yards below expected per game to quarterbacks, but they've given
up twenty six rushing yards to running backs above expected.
That's the third worst mark in football. The thing with
(04:21):
Gainwell is that he's not seeing a ton of work
on the ground. He's seen about a thirty six percent
running back rush share over the Steelers last two games. However,
we know the receiving work has been there. He's been
added above a twenty percent target share in each of
his last two and he's running a lot of routes
That could be big because number one, the Steelers may
trail in this game, and then number two, the Bills
(04:44):
are top half in the league and adjusted target share
allowed to running backs. So I think gain Woll's a
reasonable flex play in PPR formats. Now, moving on to
wide receiver, I'm gonna call out Quinton Johnston here. Johnson's
been consistently seeing high route shares in the charge, even
during his slump since Week four, his target shars have
definitely been kind of all over the place, but he's
(05:06):
been a an eighteen percent thirty thirteen percent target share
over his last three Now the Chargers get the Raiders.
They're not only the eleventh best wide receiver matchup by
justin Fantasy points allowed, but they've given up top five
fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers as well, and they're
a below average team at stopping the deep ball. QJ
has seen a dots of fourteen, thirteen and twenty three
(05:29):
and three of his last four games with a target,
So if you need a big play, if you need
some volatility, Quinton Johnston could be your guy this week.
One player I think you have to like is Troy Franklin.
Denver has an imply team total of twenty five points.
This week, they get a Washington team that ranks as
the eighth best matchup for wide receivers by justin Fantasy
(05:49):
points allowed. Franklin has seen at least eight targets in
each of his last five games against this defense. That
should definitely make him fantasy relevant on a tight end.
Ronde Gaston is currently well below that eighty percent rostered
mark for whatever reason, but I don't totally mind him
this week. I know he's been outside the top twenty
(06:10):
five in each of his last two games, but he
also saw target shares of eighteen percent and twenty one
percent in those two contests. In Week eleven, the last
time we saw the Chargers, he had a ninety one
percent route share. Now, the Raiders are not a fantastic
matchup for tight ends on paper. Teams are looking at
their wide receivers more when they face the Raiders, but
Gaston's usage still makes him a worthwhile play on a
(06:33):
team with a twenty five and a half point imply
team total. Juwan Johnson has seen sixteen percent target shares
in every game with Tyler Shucks. Starting this year. He's
now hit ten plus PPR points in each of his
last five. The Saints get the Dolphins this week, and
Miami's the third best matcher for tight ends by justin
Fantasy points allowed. They've given up the fourth highest suggested
(06:53):
target shair to the position. It's a great spot for
Juwan Johnson and then another Johnson you could go to
in this tier, my guy, Theo Johnson. He's averaging a
nineteen percent target chair per game rate since my lage
neighbors went down and Jackson Dart, like I just talked about,
he could be back this week. Dart was consistently getting
Johnson to that like eighteen percent target chair mark. The
(07:14):
Giants get the Patriots, New England's seventh best matchup for
tight ends on paper by justin fantasy points allowed. They
also are somewhat of a pass funnel. Teams see their
pass rates jump by three percentage points when they face
the Patriots, and New England's been far better against the
run than the pass this year compared to the league average,
So overall, more volume could just be funneled to the
(07:35):
Giants pass catchers this week. That includes THEO Johnson. This
next group of players consistent guys roster and in twenty to
fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. It's a little bit shallower
this week than usual. I actually don't even have a
quarterback streamer for you, so let's move on to the
sole running back in this tier, and that's Bashall Tuton.
Tuton was a pretty big disappointment last week after a
(07:57):
pretty nice workload in Week eleven, But I'd see a
thirty percent running back rush here in Week twelve, which
isn't nothing. He just couldn't get going on his seven carries.
The Jags are six and a half point favorites against
the Titans this week, though in Tennessee they're the third
best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. You
of course need to start Traves etn but if gamescript
(08:18):
goes as predicted, then Touton has double digit carry upside
and against this defense, that could yield some fantasy production. Now,
wide receiver Christian Watson has seen his target share rise
every single week since returning from his ACL injury. He's
been an okay fantasy asset, but nothing overly special. It's
just hard to get away from his thirty three percent
(08:39):
target share from last week, and that was on an
eighty eight percent rawl participation rate. Now the Packers get
the Lions and Detroit ranks first and twenty plus air
yard rate allowed, meaning teams are throwing it down the
field against them. That's big for Christian Watson. They also
have given up the fifth most adjusted fantasy points to
wide receivers, so I think Watson's a pretty good play
(09:01):
from a fantasy football perspective. Kaishan Booty, he didn't get
it done. Last week. He caught both of his targets
for just fifteen yards. But the good part about that
game was that coming off an injury, he had a
routchare of eighty five percent. He was clearly healthy. We
know that he can be boom or bust, but there's
a chance for a boom week this week against the Giants.
(09:21):
New York's a below average team at stopping deep balls,
and they've allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to
wide receivers. We know that Booty can be volatile, but
sometimes we need that kind of play in our lineups.
Jayden Higgins has been great recently, and he had his
highest route share of the season with a healthy Nico
Collins in Week twelve. That resulted in a season high
(09:41):
thirty two percent target share. The Texans will face an
improved Colt secondary this week, so there is some fear there,
but they have been a top five matchup for wide
receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed. Higgins is
seeing enough volume to potentially pay off here. Andre Josibash
he ran the most ro for Cincinnati last week, so
I expect him to step up for an injured T
(10:03):
Higgins here. In Week thirteen. The Ravens defense has played better,
but they're a pretty average opponent for wide receivers overall
by justin points allowed. Yosibosh also gets Joe burrowback, which
could go either way, but he's probably an upgrade in
this first game back versus what they'd get out of
Joe Flacco. With a twenty one percent target share last week,
we should have some confidence that Yosibash can give us
(10:26):
a floor in Week thirteen at tight end this tier.
Dalton Schultz prior to last week, had three straight top
eight performances a tight end. Even last week he had
a respectable fourteen percent target share. It wasn't like he
wasn't used at all. His route share was a solid
eighty percent. The Texans, like I said earlier, they get
the Colts this week. Indy's the sixth best matchup for
(10:48):
tight ends this year by justin points allowed, so he's
a reasonable high floor streamer. Harold Fannin's production it hasn't
been out of control, but the dude has seen at
least a twenty percent target share and each of us
his last five games, he had a thirty three percent
share last week with Shador Sanders, and he hit that
on an eighty one percent route share that was the
(11:08):
second highest mark of his season. Now, the Browns getting
above average matchup for tight ends this week against the
forty nine ers, so again there's a high floor with
Harold fannin that's not easy to find a tight end.
And then lastly, don't forget about Darren Waller if he plays.
The Dolphins get the Saints this week and New Orleans
is another average matchup against the position by justin points allowed,
(11:28):
but they rank third and adjusted target share allowed to
tight ends and Waller, as we know, he can serve
as a big red zone threat for this passing game,
so if he goes, he's not a bad tight end play.
This final group of players consist of guys rostered and
zero to twenty percent of Yahoo League, so we're digging deeper.
Quarterback is just really really hard this week, So I'll
(11:50):
start in this tier with tuatungue Vaialoa, even though I
don't feel amazing about it. Tuas had three straight performance
is a pretty bad production nine to eleven and seven
and fantasy points in New Orleans. They're actually a bottom
half matchup when it comes to justin fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks. But there are two good things for two
of this week. Number One, this game has a pretty
(12:10):
high paced score, there could be more plays run than usual.
Number two, and more importantly, the Dolphins have a twenty
four point implied team total. So I think Tua is
kind of in that QB two range this week. Now,
if you want to get weirder with it, you could
look at Tyler Shuck in that same game. He's at
two hundred and eighty two and two hundred and forty
three passing yards over his last two and he had
(12:32):
seven rushing attempts last week and a pair of scrambles
for twenty two yards. Miamis the eleventh best matchup for
quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed. But like I said,
this is a really tough week for quarterbacks. Most weeks,
I wouldn't be calling out a quarterback like Tyler Shuck,
So let's just move on to running backs. I know
I call out Blake Koram quite a bit in this
(12:53):
section of the show, but the Rams are just dominating.
That creates more opportunity for Blake Koram in this offense
gets Carolina this week, and the Panthers. They've been below
average at stopping running backs by justed rushing yards allowed
per game. Korum has now seen a forty two percent
running back rush here per game rate over his last
five If the Rams get ahead in this game, which
(13:14):
they're projected to do, they're ten and a half point favorites,
we could see a healthy dose of Blake Koram. Chris
Rodriguez is a tougher matchup this week against the Broncos,
but don't forget he saw his best peripherals of the
season the last time that we saw Washington. He ran
the ball fifteen times for seventy nine yards against Miami,
coming through with a fifty four percent running back rush
are Now. Receiving volume is always going to be a
(13:36):
problem for Rodriguez, but double digit touches is a median
outcome for him this week. That could mean at least
some production now in that same game as Jalil McLoughlin. Now,
the last time we saw Denver, McLoughlin wasn't used a
whole lot. He did get a goal line touchdown, but
his snapshare was only thirteen percent. He did, however, see
thirty five percent of the team's running back rushes in
(13:58):
Denver this week against the six and a half point favorites.
If they take a lead, and if McLoughlin sticks with
that rush share, then he'll probably see double digit touches.
And that's all it takes to be a deep sleeper.
And then the last running back in this tier, it's
the most obvious one. It's Devin Neil because Alvin Kamara
likely not gonna play. Neil saw all the running back
(14:20):
rushes after Kamara went down last week. He also played
the majority of the team's backfield snaps. Now, the downside
is that Taysom Hill is going to be used. He's
going to be used at the goal line too. But
Miami's a good matchup. They've given up the twelfth most
adjusted Fantasy points the running backs this year and they've
allowed the fifth highest adjusted target share to the position.
So Neil among these Tier three running backs, he has
(14:41):
to be the favorite. At wide receiver. I honestly don't
adore Chim ray DK's matchup, but there's not a lot
going on in Tennessee, so let's talk about him. The
Titans get the Jags, Jacksonville has been a lot better
at defending slot receivers than perimeter ones, and DK often
lines up in the slot. He has on over half
of his routes in all but one game this year.
(15:01):
That one game was last week without elic Iamanner, and
his slot rate was forty nine percent. Maybe I Amanner's
out again this week that would help DK, but it's
hard to deny the fact that DK has now scored
fifteen plus PPR points in three of his last five,
and he's coming off a game with a ninety percent
route chair and an eighteen percent target chair. He's a
(15:22):
pretty good player who can see a decent amount of
looks and what's almost always a negative game script for Tennessee.
I almost talked about Adanai Mitchell in the fifteen Transactions episode,
but I went against it because it's the Jets and
it's ad Nai Mitchell. But if you need someone this week,
I don't totally mind him. The Jets get the Falcons,
and Atlanta has been pretty average against wide receivers this year,
(15:44):
but they've been worse of late. They've allowed four top
twenty performances to wide receivers over their last three games.
Mitchell has seen about a twenty five percent target chair
in New York's offense over the last two weeks. It's
two games with New York that's resulted in thirteen targets.
He's got the ability to separate and make big plays.
Maybe it happens in this one. Atlanta's top ten in
(16:07):
the league and deep ball rate allowed. And then my
sneaky start at wide receiver this week is Pat Bryant.
I like Troy Franklin a lot, don't get me wrong,
but Brian's been running in like the sixteen to seventy
percent route share range over his last three games. He's
also been around a seventy two percent slot rate, and
that could be big against Washington because they've given up
(16:27):
the second most fantasy points per game this year to
slot wide receivers. Brian's a rookie coming off of bye,
so maybe Denver wants to feature him a little bit more.
He's been decent this year. It's a good spot for him.
We've got a handful of tight ends in this tier too.
I talked about Brenton Strange on the fifteen Transaction Show.
I think he's an okay option against Tennessee. It's not
(16:49):
some like brilliant matchup, but strangers hit double DIGITPPR points
in three of his last four, including an eighteen percent,
twenty three percent, and seventeen percent target share in those contests.
I do think there's some worry here though, that there
are just too many miles defeat in this Jacksonville offense
for a lower tiered player like this, because it sounds
like Brian Thomas could be back this week. Now. If
(17:11):
you don't feel comfortable with Strange, maybe you could risk
it with Isaiah Likely. I mean, look, full disclosure, he's
been rough over his last three. He hasn't top four
PPR points in a single game, but he's seen target
chairs of seventeen percent, eighteen percent, twelve percent, and fifteen
percent in his last four. Those are all four games
with Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati is just brutal against tight ends.
(17:35):
They've given up by far the most adjusted points of
the position this year. It wouldn't surprise me if Likely
and Mark Andrews have a decent Thanksgiving. Now, if you
want to take a shot with Taysom Hill getting a
ground game touchdown, he's another choice. There's not that much
to say, aside from the fact that he carried the
ball ten times last week with Alvin Kamara's injury. But
the one tight end that I'm really interested in within
(17:56):
this tier is MIKEASICKI. He plays the Ravens on Thanksgiving
and that's a game without t Higgins. The Ravens are
fine against tight ends, but they're not very good against
slot receivers. In fact, they rank in the top five
and adjusted slot fantasy points allowed this year, and no
tight end in the NFL runs out of the slot
more frequently according to PFF than Mike Asiki, So I
(18:17):
could see Gasiki stepping up and having a decent day. Now.
His floor is obviously zero, but that's the case with
anyone in this tier of players. Now, as for the
defensive streamers this week, I'm looking at the Chargers that
they're still out there. I don't mind San Francisco against Cleveland.
There's Tampa Bay against Arizona, and then honestly, there's Arizona
against Tampa Bay too, especially if Baker Mayfield can't go.
(18:39):
And then finally, I like Miami against New Orleans. That's
it for today's show, though thanks to all of you
for listening. If yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it
pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget
to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. With Thanksgiving being tomorrow, that's it for
the podcast this week. And with it being Thanksgiving, I
(19:01):
just want to say thanks to all of you. I
say it all the time, but quite literally, Without you,
this show would not exist. Thanks for listening and thanks
for being so supportive. It means the world to me.
Everyone stays safe, enjoy your family and friends, enjoy football,
and have a great Thanksgiving. I'll be back next week
to really start the home stretch. The playoffs are just
a couple of weeks away. Let's finish strong.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher
Retha j J Zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ
Zacharyesen in this episode ten sixty one of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's
sleeper results were a mixed back. Brock Perty made some
(00:24):
really bad throws against the Panthers. Ormandre Stevenson didn't get
much of his workload back Rashid Shaheed didn't make that
big play that I was hoping for. Alec Pearce didn't
do much, neither did be Shall Tooton and Kaishan Boody
and Bryce Young they both disappointed too. But on the
plus side, Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett they were both usable.
Kareem Hunt, Emmanuel Wilson posted twenty or more PPR points,
(00:45):
Wandel Robinson went off Michael Wilson at another big game.
Kenneth Gainwell scored eighteen, Darnell Mooney made a big play
to save his day, and the defensive streamers they weren't
too bad. It was a pretty average week overall. Now
at today's show, I wasn't able to pick players out
after Waivers ran just because I did this episode earlier
in the week than usual, but I did my best
(01:07):
to give you guys reasonable options within each tier. Let's
do it. We'll kick things out by looking at players
rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. We'll
start with Jordan Love. Love only has one top twenty
performance over his last four games, and those games are
largely without Tucker Kraft. That's definitely a problem. With that
(01:29):
being said, he failed to reach twenty five pass attempts
in each of his last two. That probably won't be
the case on Thanksgiving against the Lions. Detroit has a
lot of top fifteen performance in each of their last
four That may not sound like much, but listen to
the quarterbacks that they faced during this stretch. JJ McCarthy,
Marcus Mariota, Jalen Hurts, and Jamis Winston. They're the tenth
(01:51):
best matchup for quarterbacks this year by justin Fantasy points allowed,
and Green Bay has a solid twenty three and a
half point total this week. It's a nice bounce back
spot for Jordan Love. Jackson Dart is somehow under that
eighty percent mark, and there's a reasonable chance that he
plays this week against the Patriots. The Giants only have
a nineteen and a half implied team total, but New
England's a top ten opponent for quarterbacks this year by
(02:13):
justin fantasy points allowed, and they've allowed sixteen passing yards
per game over expected. Dart has finished as a top
five quarterback option in four of his last five games.
He's averaging almost twenty three standard fantasy points per game
this year, or at least in his starts. I really
don't understand why he's still out there in so many leagues.
(02:34):
And then we're gonna go back to Jacoby Brissett. He's
now given us a QB one performance in all six
of his starts this year, and he gets a Tampa
Bay secondary this week that's given up the ninth most
ad justed fantasy points to quarterbacks. I know it's weird
that he's still a sleeper, but I'm just going by
what the percent roster numbers are telling me. He's a
top twelve play this week. Moving on to running back,
(02:55):
I know that Woody Marks was kind of whatever this
past week, but the usage has now been pretty for
three straight games, and in fantasy football, we have to
follow usage. Houston gets Indianapolis this week. It's a below
average matchup for running backs on paper, but Marx has
seen a seventy seven percent running back rush share per
game rate over his last three and while his target
shares have been sub seven percent during this time, he's
(03:17):
been above a fifty percent route share and two of
those three games. My guess is that that target share
will eventually regress a little bit. Based on that route
share and based on his skill set, He's not like
a smash of a play, but he deserves to be
called out on this show at this moment. I don't
know if a Marian Hampton's gonna be back this week.
If he's not, I'm gonna go with Kamani Videll once again.
(03:40):
He was banged up a little bit the last time
we saw him, but he's given us multiple games of
a ninety percent running back rush share with a Marian
Hampton sideline this year. And the Chargers get a Raiders
defense that ranks as the eighth best matchup for running
backs by justin points allowed. So if Hampton is out,
feel free to use Commani Videll. Kenneth game is a
pretty interesting play. This week. Steelers get the Bills and
(04:01):
we know that Buffalo's bad against the run. They rank
is the fourth best matchup for running backs by justin
fantasy points allowed, and they've basically been a run funnel
for opposing offenses. The Bills have allowed thirty six passing
yards below expected per game to quarterbacks, but they've given
up twenty six rushing yards to running backs above expected.
That's the third worst mark in football. The thing with
(04:21):
Gainwell is that he's not seeing a ton of work
on the ground. He's seen about a thirty six percent
running back rush share over the Steelers last two games. However,
we know the receiving work has been there. He's been
added above a twenty percent target share in each of
his last two and he's running a lot of routes
That could be big because number one, the Steelers may
trail in this game, and then number two, the Bills
(04:44):
are top half in the league and adjusted target share
allowed to running backs. So I think gain Woll's a
reasonable flex play in PPR formats. Now, moving on to
wide receiver, I'm gonna call out Quinton Johnston here. Johnson's
been consistently seeing high route shares in the charge, even
during his slump since Week four, his target shars have
definitely been kind of all over the place, but he's
(05:06):
been a an eighteen percent thirty thirteen percent target share
over his last three Now the Chargers get the Raiders.
They're not only the eleventh best wide receiver matchup by
justin Fantasy points allowed, but they've given up top five
fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers as well, and they're
a below average team at stopping the deep ball. QJ
has seen a dots of fourteen, thirteen and twenty three
(05:29):
and three of his last four games with a target,
So if you need a big play, if you need
some volatility, Quinton Johnston could be your guy this week.
One player I think you have to like is Troy Franklin.
Denver has an imply team total of twenty five points.
This week, they get a Washington team that ranks as
the eighth best matchup for wide receivers by justin Fantasy
(05:49):
points allowed. Franklin has seen at least eight targets in
each of his last five games against this defense. That
should definitely make him fantasy relevant on a tight end.
Ronde Gaston is currently well below that eighty percent rostered
mark for whatever reason, but I don't totally mind him
this week. I know he's been outside the top twenty
(06:10):
five in each of his last two games, but he
also saw target shares of eighteen percent and twenty one
percent in those two contests. In Week eleven, the last
time we saw the Chargers, he had a ninety one
percent route share. Now, the Raiders are not a fantastic
matchup for tight ends on paper. Teams are looking at
their wide receivers more when they face the Raiders, but
Gaston's usage still makes him a worthwhile play on a
(06:33):
team with a twenty five and a half point imply
team total. Juwan Johnson has seen sixteen percent target shares
in every game with Tyler Shucks. Starting this year. He's
now hit ten plus PPR points in each of his
last five. The Saints get the Dolphins this week, and
Miami's the third best matcher for tight ends by justin
Fantasy points allowed. They've given up the fourth highest suggested
(06:53):
target shair to the position. It's a great spot for
Juwan Johnson and then another Johnson you could go to
in this tier, my guy, Theo Johnson. He's averaging a
nineteen percent target chair per game rate since my lage
neighbors went down and Jackson Dart, like I just talked about,
he could be back this week. Dart was consistently getting
Johnson to that like eighteen percent target chair mark. The
(07:14):
Giants get the Patriots, New England's seventh best matchup for
tight ends on paper by justin fantasy points allowed. They
also are somewhat of a pass funnel. Teams see their
pass rates jump by three percentage points when they face
the Patriots, and New England's been far better against the
run than the pass this year compared to the league average,
So overall, more volume could just be funneled to the
(07:35):
Giants pass catchers this week. That includes THEO Johnson. This
next group of players consistent guys roster and in twenty to
fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. It's a little bit shallower
this week than usual. I actually don't even have a
quarterback streamer for you, so let's move on to the
sole running back in this tier, and that's Bashall Tuton.
Tuton was a pretty big disappointment last week after a
(07:57):
pretty nice workload in Week eleven, But I'd see a
thirty percent running back rush here in Week twelve, which
isn't nothing. He just couldn't get going on his seven carries.
The Jags are six and a half point favorites against
the Titans this week, though in Tennessee they're the third
best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. You
of course need to start Traves etn but if gamescript
(08:18):
goes as predicted, then Touton has double digit carry upside
and against this defense, that could yield some fantasy production. Now,
wide receiver Christian Watson has seen his target share rise
every single week since returning from his ACL injury. He's
been an okay fantasy asset, but nothing overly special. It's
just hard to get away from his thirty three percent
(08:39):
target share from last week, and that was on an
eighty eight percent rawl participation rate. Now the Packers get
the Lions and Detroit ranks first and twenty plus air
yard rate allowed, meaning teams are throwing it down the
field against them. That's big for Christian Watson. They also
have given up the fifth most adjusted fantasy points to
wide receivers, so I think Watson's a pretty good play
(09:01):
from a fantasy football perspective. Kaishan Booty, he didn't get
it done. Last week. He caught both of his targets
for just fifteen yards. But the good part about that
game was that coming off an injury, he had a
routchare of eighty five percent. He was clearly healthy. We
know that he can be boom or bust, but there's
a chance for a boom week this week against the Giants.
(09:21):
New York's a below average team at stopping deep balls,
and they've allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to
wide receivers. We know that Booty can be volatile, but
sometimes we need that kind of play in our lineups.
Jayden Higgins has been great recently, and he had his
highest route share of the season with a healthy Nico
Collins in Week twelve. That resulted in a season high
(09:41):
thirty two percent target share. The Texans will face an
improved Colt secondary this week, so there is some fear there,
but they have been a top five matchup for wide
receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed. Higgins is
seeing enough volume to potentially pay off here. Andre Josibash
he ran the most ro for Cincinnati last week, so
I expect him to step up for an injured T
(10:03):
Higgins here. In Week thirteen. The Ravens defense has played better,
but they're a pretty average opponent for wide receivers overall
by justin points allowed. Yosibosh also gets Joe burrowback, which
could go either way, but he's probably an upgrade in
this first game back versus what they'd get out of
Joe Flacco. With a twenty one percent target share last week,
we should have some confidence that Yosibash can give us
(10:26):
a floor in Week thirteen at tight end this tier.
Dalton Schultz prior to last week, had three straight top
eight performances a tight end. Even last week he had
a respectable fourteen percent target share. It wasn't like he
wasn't used at all. His route share was a solid
eighty percent. The Texans, like I said earlier, they get
the Colts this week. Indy's the sixth best matchup for
(10:48):
tight ends this year by justin points allowed, so he's
a reasonable high floor streamer. Harold Fannin's production it hasn't
been out of control, but the dude has seen at
least a twenty percent target share and each of us
his last five games, he had a thirty three percent
share last week with Shador Sanders, and he hit that
on an eighty one percent route share that was the
(11:08):
second highest mark of his season. Now, the Browns getting
above average matchup for tight ends this week against the
forty nine ers, so again there's a high floor with
Harold fannin that's not easy to find a tight end.
And then lastly, don't forget about Darren Waller if he plays.
The Dolphins get the Saints this week and New Orleans
is another average matchup against the position by justin points allowed,
(11:28):
but they rank third and adjusted target share allowed to
tight ends and Waller, as we know, he can serve
as a big red zone threat for this passing game,
so if he goes, he's not a bad tight end play.
This final group of players consist of guys rostered and
zero to twenty percent of Yahoo League, so we're digging deeper.
Quarterback is just really really hard this week, So I'll
(11:50):
start in this tier with tuatungue Vaialoa, even though I
don't feel amazing about it. Tuas had three straight performance
is a pretty bad production nine to eleven and seven
and fantasy points in New Orleans. They're actually a bottom
half matchup when it comes to justin fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks. But there are two good things for two
of this week. Number One, this game has a pretty
(12:10):
high paced score, there could be more plays run than usual.
Number two, and more importantly, the Dolphins have a twenty
four point implied team total. So I think Tua is
kind of in that QB two range this week. Now,
if you want to get weirder with it, you could
look at Tyler Shuck in that same game. He's at
two hundred and eighty two and two hundred and forty
three passing yards over his last two and he had
(12:32):
seven rushing attempts last week and a pair of scrambles
for twenty two yards. Miamis the eleventh best matchup for
quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed. But like I said,
this is a really tough week for quarterbacks. Most weeks,
I wouldn't be calling out a quarterback like Tyler Shuck,
So let's just move on to running backs. I know
I call out Blake Koram quite a bit in this
(12:53):
section of the show, but the Rams are just dominating.
That creates more opportunity for Blake Koram in this offense
gets Carolina this week, and the Panthers. They've been below
average at stopping running backs by justed rushing yards allowed
per game. Korum has now seen a forty two percent
running back rush here per game rate over his last
five If the Rams get ahead in this game, which
(13:14):
they're projected to do, they're ten and a half point favorites,
we could see a healthy dose of Blake Koram. Chris
Rodriguez is a tougher matchup this week against the Broncos,
but don't forget he saw his best peripherals of the
season the last time that we saw Washington. He ran
the ball fifteen times for seventy nine yards against Miami,
coming through with a fifty four percent running back rush
are Now. Receiving volume is always going to be a
(13:36):
problem for Rodriguez, but double digit touches is a median
outcome for him this week. That could mean at least
some production now in that same game as Jalil McLoughlin. Now,
the last time we saw Denver, McLoughlin wasn't used a
whole lot. He did get a goal line touchdown, but
his snapshare was only thirteen percent. He did, however, see
thirty five percent of the team's running back rushes in
(13:58):
Denver this week against the six and a half point favorites.
If they take a lead, and if McLoughlin sticks with
that rush share, then he'll probably see double digit touches.
And that's all it takes to be a deep sleeper.
And then the last running back in this tier, it's
the most obvious one. It's Devin Neil because Alvin Kamara
likely not gonna play. Neil saw all the running back
(14:20):
rushes after Kamara went down last week. He also played
the majority of the team's backfield snaps. Now, the downside
is that Taysom Hill is going to be used. He's
going to be used at the goal line too. But
Miami's a good matchup. They've given up the twelfth most
adjusted Fantasy points the running backs this year and they've
allowed the fifth highest adjusted target share to the position.
So Neil among these Tier three running backs, he has
(14:41):
to be the favorite. At wide receiver. I honestly don't
adore Chim ray DK's matchup, but there's not a lot
going on in Tennessee, so let's talk about him. The
Titans get the Jags, Jacksonville has been a lot better
at defending slot receivers than perimeter ones, and DK often
lines up in the slot. He has on over half
of his routes in all but one game this year.
(15:01):
That one game was last week without elic Iamanner, and
his slot rate was forty nine percent. Maybe I Amanner's
out again this week that would help DK, but it's
hard to deny the fact that DK has now scored
fifteen plus PPR points in three of his last five,
and he's coming off a game with a ninety percent
route chair and an eighteen percent target chair. He's a
(15:22):
pretty good player who can see a decent amount of
looks and what's almost always a negative game script for Tennessee.
I almost talked about Adanai Mitchell in the fifteen Transactions episode,
but I went against it because it's the Jets and
it's ad Nai Mitchell. But if you need someone this week,
I don't totally mind him. The Jets get the Falcons,
and Atlanta has been pretty average against wide receivers this year,
(15:44):
but they've been worse of late. They've allowed four top
twenty performances to wide receivers over their last three games.
Mitchell has seen about a twenty five percent target chair
in New York's offense over the last two weeks. It's
two games with New York that's resulted in thirteen targets.
He's got the ability to separate and make big plays.
Maybe it happens in this one. Atlanta's top ten in
(16:07):
the league and deep ball rate allowed. And then my
sneaky start at wide receiver this week is Pat Bryant.
I like Troy Franklin a lot, don't get me wrong,
but Brian's been running in like the sixteen to seventy
percent route share range over his last three games. He's
also been around a seventy two percent slot rate, and
that could be big against Washington because they've given up
(16:27):
the second most fantasy points per game this year to
slot wide receivers. Brian's a rookie coming off of bye,
so maybe Denver wants to feature him a little bit more.
He's been decent this year. It's a good spot for him.
We've got a handful of tight ends in this tier too.
I talked about Brenton Strange on the fifteen Transaction Show.
I think he's an okay option against Tennessee. It's not
(16:49):
some like brilliant matchup, but strangers hit double DIGITPPR points
in three of his last four, including an eighteen percent,
twenty three percent, and seventeen percent target share in those contests.
I do think there's some worry here though, that there
are just too many miles defeat in this Jacksonville offense
for a lower tiered player like this, because it sounds
like Brian Thomas could be back this week. Now. If
(17:11):
you don't feel comfortable with Strange, maybe you could risk
it with Isaiah Likely. I mean, look, full disclosure, he's
been rough over his last three. He hasn't top four
PPR points in a single game, but he's seen target
chairs of seventeen percent, eighteen percent, twelve percent, and fifteen
percent in his last four. Those are all four games
with Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati is just brutal against tight ends.
(17:35):
They've given up by far the most adjusted points of
the position this year. It wouldn't surprise me if Likely
and Mark Andrews have a decent Thanksgiving. Now, if you
want to take a shot with Taysom Hill getting a
ground game touchdown, he's another choice. There's not that much
to say, aside from the fact that he carried the
ball ten times last week with Alvin Kamara's injury. But
the one tight end that I'm really interested in within
(17:56):
this tier is MIKEASICKI. He plays the Ravens on Thanksgiving
and that's a game without t Higgins. The Ravens are
fine against tight ends, but they're not very good against
slot receivers. In fact, they rank in the top five
and adjusted slot fantasy points allowed this year, and no
tight end in the NFL runs out of the slot
more frequently according to PFF than Mike Asiki, So I
(18:17):
could see Gasiki stepping up and having a decent day. Now.
His floor is obviously zero, but that's the case with
anyone in this tier of players. Now, as for the
defensive streamers this week, I'm looking at the Chargers that
they're still out there. I don't mind San Francisco against Cleveland.
There's Tampa Bay against Arizona, and then honestly, there's Arizona
against Tampa Bay too, especially if Baker Mayfield can't go.
(18:39):
And then finally, I like Miami against New Orleans. That's
it for today's show, though thanks to all of you
for listening. If yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy
Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it
pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget
to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
Late Round QB. With Thanksgiving being tomorrow, that's it for
the podcast this week. And with it being Thanksgiving, I
(19:01):
just want to say thanks to all of you. I
say it all the time, but quite literally, Without you,
this show would not exist. Thanks for listening and thanks
for being so supportive. It means the world to me.
Everyone stays safe, enjoy your family and friends, enjoy football,
and have a great Thanksgiving. I'll be back next week
to really start the home stretch. The playoffs are just
a couple of weeks away. Let's finish strong.
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