December 2, 2025 • 16 mins
JJ talks about the Broncos offense, a pair of streaming tight ends, Bucky Irving, and more on this week's 15 Transactions episode.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera
JJ zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten sixty two of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I know I
sound like I just smoked eight packs of cigarettes. This
(00:23):
is what happens when you travel for Thanksgiving and you've
got to todther running around. So apologies for my voice
being even more annoying than it usually is. I also
know that a lot of trade deadlines have passed. I
know that you can't totally act on all the buy
and sell recommendations from the show anymore. With that being said,
I do still have some buys and cells on today's
(00:43):
episode because they can help you with knowing how confident
to feel about certain players. As we get closer to
the end of the season, this show will turn into
more ads and drops the final week, Week seventeen. It's
always the quickest episode of the season because just fill
with those ads and drops. But I did want to
get that caveat out of the way before we dig
into this week's list of transactions. Let's do that now,
(01:09):
add Pat Bryant. So the first three transactions this week,
they're all Denver Broncos. Let's start with Pat Bryant. His
usage has been trending up over the last handful of weeks.
I've talked about him plenty on The Sleeper Show, but
we saw an interesting shift in Week thirteen. He ended
up running five more routes and seeing four more targets
than Troy Franklin. That's something that we hadn't seen all
(01:32):
season long. Brian had a seventy seven percent route share
against Washington and that was in a game that was
coming out of the by. That was a season high
for him. We know that it can take some time
for rookies to see more expanded roles in their offenses.
This is definitely noteworthy. So look at Pat Bryant this
week off the waiver wire sell Courtland Sutton. So if
(01:56):
you have Courtland Sutton, you're probably feeling a little bit
excited after what he did in Week thirteen. He scored
seventeen point two PPR points against the Commanders, which was
his best output since Week five. The problem though, he
only had a fourteen percent target share, that was his
lowest since Week six. Sutton just really hasn't been getting
it done since the first month or so of the season.
(02:17):
From Week six onward, his last seven games, he's averaged
his ten point four PPR points per game. He was
at sixteen point one PPR points per game across his
first five A huge reason for this is competition other
Broncos receivers, the aforementioned Pat Bryant, the aforementioned Troy Franklin.
They've emerged and as a result, since Week five, Cortland
(02:40):
Sutton has his seventeen point seven percent target share per
game rate. Before this stretch, that target share per game
rate was almost twenty three percent. Now, if the schedule
looked good for Denver, it'd be one thing. But in
their remaining four games in the fantasy season, they get
the Raiders, Packers, Jags, and Chiefs. He might be fining
against the Raiders, and I don't mind his perimeter matchup
against the Jags, but all three playoff matchups Green Bay, Jacksonville,
(03:04):
and Kansas City, they're all against bottom half opponents. By
justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, you can usually
spot a cell candidate by looking at production and then
looking at the usage, and right now the production is
up for Courtland Sutton, but the usage, it was still
kind of down. That's why he's a cell After that
Week thirteen performance, sell RJ. Harvey, Okay, this is the
(03:29):
last one about the Denver Broncos. I promise, and I
will say I don't think this transaction. I don't think
it's one that you desperately need to act on, but
it's something that we should probably talk about. RJ. Harvey's
usage without JK. Dobbins, it's been okay, it hasn't been great.
In Week thirteen, we actually saw Harvey's usage decline versus
his other game. Without Dobbins, he was on the field
(03:52):
for just forty seven percent of Denver's offensive snaps. That
number was sixty one percent in week eleven. His route
share was only twenty nine percent against the Commanders. The
last time we saw the Broncos it was forty eight percent. Fortunately,
when he's been on the field, his workload has been okay.
Harvey's been around a sixty five percent running back rush
share and a nine percent target share that can yield
(04:14):
usable results as we saw in Week thirteen, and hey,
maybe that workload improves. The problem here though, is twofold
number one. He outplayed his peripherals in week thirteen, so
naturally he's more of a sell than a buy. But
also look at that playoff schedule. I just talked about
it with Courtland Sutton. The Broncos get the Packers, Jags,
(04:36):
and Chiefs during their three playoff weeks. That gives the
Broncos a bottom five schedule for running backs by justin
points allowed in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. Each of
those teams in this data is pre Monday Night Football,
but each of those teams rank as bottom ten opponents
for running backs according to my schedule adjusted numbers. So again,
this isn't something that you absolutely need to do. R J.
(04:59):
Harvey's a rookie. He could see more work as the
season goes on, There's no doubt. But it's definitely a
good thing to have in the back of your mind
if you're relying on Harvey during the playoffs, which I
know a lot of you probably are. At Blake Koram,
I've talked about Blake Coreum so often on this show.
This can be brief. We can talk about this really quickly.
(05:21):
He's arguably the most valuable handcuff in all of fantasy football,
and yet He's still rostered in just sixteen percent of
Yahoo leagus, and he has some standalone value too. He's
averaged a forty one percent running back rush are per
game rate over his last six that's resulted in ten
rush attempts per game during that timeframe. As I said
in the fifteen Transactions newsletter, tis the season to handcuff.
(05:45):
Blake Koram should be rostered everywhere. Ad Isaac Tesla so
Amaras Saint Brown, had an ankle injury on Thanksgiving. He
could miss some time right now. As it stands today,
it sounds like he's a game time decision for Thursday
Night Football. So thankfully it doesn't seem like it's that
serious of an injury. But this could open the door
(06:07):
for Isaac Tesla. Against the Packers on Thanksgiving, he had
a ninety four percent route chair. He had two targets.
He caught both of them for thirty five yards and
a touchdown. And this week they get the Cowboys. Dallas
is the friendliest team to wide receivers this year by
adjustin points allowed, and they've been specifically bad against perimeter
wide receivers. Teslaw on the year. According to PFFDTA, he's
(06:29):
played seventy two percent of his snaps out wide, So
if Saint Brown does miss this week, Isaac Tesla could
see some fantasy production hold. Terry McLaurin. Terry mclaurin's return
from injury in Week thirteen was pretty awesome. He was
a little bit limited. He ran around on just fifty
nine percent of Washington's dropbacks, but he still saw season
(06:52):
highs and target share at thirty one percent and peep
your points at twenty two point six. He saw a
target on forty four percent of his routes. Run. That's nuts. Now,
your inclination might be to sell that performance. It's not
one that's easily repeatable, but mclauren might be more of
a bye than a cell. Not only could Jade Daniels
(07:13):
be back during the final parts of the fantasy season,
but Washington they're gonna get the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys
in the fantasy playoffs. Now, Philly is an if your matchup,
but the Cowboys in Week seventeen, McLaurin could be awesome
in that matchup. I'd expect mclauren's snaphare and routeshare to
rise over the coming weeks. We can't assume that his
target chair is gonna be thirty one percent each week
(07:35):
even with that increased snapshare and routechair, but it was
really good to see him both healthy and productive. Ad
ad Ni Mitchell. I mentioned on the podcast last week
that ad Ni Mitchell was almost a transaction prior to
Week thirteen after his performance against the Falcons, I wish
I would have kept him on that list. Since being
(07:57):
dealt to the Jets, Mitchell has seen target shares of
twenty four four percent, twenty six percent, and thirty nine percent.
He's coming off the game in Week thirteen where he
caught eight of twelve targets for one hundred and two
yards in a touchdown, So with Garrett Wilson still sidelined,
he makes for an obvious get off the waiver wire
this week at Devon Veleay. So Ever, since Rashid Shiheed
(08:19):
was traded to Seattle, Devon Bailey has seen target shares
about twelve percent, sixteen percent, and twenty four percent in
his three games played. He didn't have that much production
until this past week against Miami, but against Miami he
had twenty three PPR points. He caught all eight of
his targets for ninety three yards in a touchdown. You're
probably only gonna play Veley in deeper leagues, but his
(08:41):
performance in his recent usage it makes him an option
off the waiver wire This week by Bucky Irving to me,
week thirteen was a good one for Bucky Irving. Not
only did he finally get out there and play, but
he also had pretty good usage. Irving snapshare was still
a little bit low, was fifty two percent. It had
(09:02):
been seventy five percent to eighty percent pre injury, but
he walked away from that game against the Cardinals with
an eighty one percent running back rush are and keep
in mind that was his first game back. You have
to ask yourself what happens with Bucky Irving when things
really start cooking Irving and the Bucks. They get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers,
and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season. There's a
(09:25):
very real chance that the Buccaneers see positive game scripts
in each one of those games, and considering Irving's run
game usage in Week thirteen, that means that the odds
are good that he's gonna see a nice amount of work.
None of those matchups are frightening if you've got Bucky Irving,
especially the latter three matchups, which are the Falcons, Panthers,
and Dolphins because those come in the Fantasy playoffs. So
(09:46):
Bucky Irving right now, to me, definitely more of a
bye than a cell add Keaton Mitchell. So when we
talk about handcuffs across the league, very rarely does Keaton
Mitchell's name get brought up. And the likely reason for
that is that he's undersized. Even with a Derrick Henry injury,
Mitchell probably wouldn't get like twenty carries per game. He's
(10:08):
a smaller player, But if Derrick Henry went down, Keaton
Mitchell would definitely get more work in that backfield. Not
only that, but Mitchell starting to see a little bit
more working that Raven's backfield just naturally. Over his last
three games, his routchair has gone up to nineteen percent.
Prior to that it was five percent. That's led to
games with a twelve percent and ten percent target shair
(10:29):
over his last three. Justice Hill is on ir now too. Now,
Mitchell hasn't been the running back to take on Justice
Hill's role, which is that long down and distance work,
that two minute work that's been Rasheen Ali's job, but
without Justice Hill, there's a little bit more room for
work than before. And given Mitchell's speed, he only needs
a few touches to be fantasy relevant. So you've sort
(10:51):
of got a handcuff plus situation going on here, although
that plus it's probably more applicable to deeper leagues, Sell
Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes had a great Week thirteen performance
in fantasy football, There's no doubt, but it was also
really predictable. The Chiefs faced the Cowboys, and no team
(11:11):
in football has allowed more adjusted points to quarterbacks this
year than the Dallas Cowboys. Things are not going to
be that easy. Over the final four weeks of the
fantasy season. The Chiefs get the Texans, Chargers, Titans, and Broncos.
According to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers pre
Monday Night Football, those teams rank as the toughest, the
seventh toughest, the seventeenth toughest, and the second toughest matchups
(11:33):
for quarterbacks by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Mahomes has gotten
it done this year in fantasy, but he's faced two
opponents recently who rank in the bottom five and adjusted
fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks Buffalo and Denver. In those games,
he scored ten and a half and thirteen point three
standard fantasy points. He's also averaged thrower than eighteen standard
fantasy points per game over his last four. He was
(11:56):
at twenty four and a half points per game across
his first eight this season. It's not going to be
an easy ride for Patrick Mahomes rest of season. Ad
Harold Fannin. Over the last month and a half of
the football season, Harold Fannin's usage has kind of been awesome.
It's just being buried because of the offense that he's in.
(12:18):
He's averaging almost a twenty five percent target shapper game
rate over his last six and he hit a season
in career high ninety three percent role participation against the
forty nine Ers this past Sunday. Fannin's still out there
in two thirds of Yahoo leagues, but his remaining schedule
isn't that bad. They get the Titans, Bears, Bills, and
Steelers that Week seventeen game against Pittsburgh. That's particularly interesting
(12:41):
because Pittsburgh this year they've been a top five matchup
for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed. Harold Fannin
might not be a top five guy, but we shouldn't
be leaving this kind of workload on the waiver wire,
at least in my opinion. Add Darren Waller. Now, I
know I've talked about Darren Waller quite bid over the
last month on this show, but I do think this
(13:02):
is worth repeating this transaction for two reasons. First, he
came out in Week thirteen. He essentially saw his standard
Miami Dolphins workload. He had a sixty nine percent route chare.
That was a number that was pretty comparable to his
two healthy games as a Dolphin in Week five and
six earlier this season. He also had a fifteen percent
target share. The usage overall was not bad. And the
(13:24):
second reason that you should be rostering Waller is the schedule.
You've heard this before, but Miami has the best schedule
in the Fantasy playoffs for tight ends. That's because he
gets the Steelers, the fourth best matchup for tight ends
by justin points allowed, and then the Bengals, which is
the best matchup. He gets them in Week fifteen and sixteen.
So at a minimum, he can help you get to
(13:45):
the Fantasy Championship where he faces the Buccaneers, and the
Buccaneers are mostly an average opponent for tight ends, so
if Waller balls out in those two matchups, maybe you'll
have confidence to even play him in Week seventeen. At
the very least, I do think he can be usable
and that Week fifteen and sixteen stretch. Add the Miami
(14:05):
Dolphins defense. So how about this. The Dolphins have ranked
as a top seven fantasy defense and four of their
last five games. And again, this is pre Monday Night Football,
so technically some defense could jump them if they perform
well tonight. I'm just recording it before Monday Night Football,
so you guys can listen to this during your commute
on Tuesday. Regardless, Miami's gotten it done against mediocre offenses,
(14:27):
but that's exactly what they're gonna face this week against
New York. They get the Jets. Now, New York has
been a worse matchup for opposing defenses now that Justin
Fields is benched. But the Dolphins right now their road favorites,
and that game has a low forty two and a
half point total. They're a pretty safe streaming option this week.
(14:48):
Add the Detroit Lions defense. The Lions get the Cowboys
this week. So you probably just heard that transaction and
you're a little bit confused. But here's the thing. If
you're looking at the playoffs, you might want to stat Detroit.
They won't be that usable more than likely in Week
fifteen against the Rams, but then in Week sixteen they're
going to be home against the Steelers, and then in
(15:08):
week seventeen they're gonna be on the road against the
currently horrific Minnesota Vikings offense. So if you're in a
league that stashes defenses, if you're in a league where
only a few defenses are available, Detroit might be dropped
this week because they get Dallas. And if they are dropped,
you might want to consider picking them up and stashing
them for week sixteen and seventeen. So, as you guys know,
(15:34):
I'm under the weather. My brain's going a little slower
than usual. And as I was watching that Monday night
football game, I didn't even think to add Devin Singletary
to this transactions list, even though I absolutely should have,
because Tyrone Tracy has a hip injury and Devin Singletary
he stepped in last night and he had a strong workload.
He had his highest running back rush here since week nine,
(15:55):
he hit his highest target share of the season at
twelve and a half percent. The Giants have a bye
this week, but if Tracy misses anytime Singletary he has
a shot to be in the RB two conversation. The
Giants had the fourth best running back schedule in the
Fantasy Football playoffs. That's according to my adjusted Fantasy points
allowed numbers. They get the Commanders, Vikings, and Raiders, So
(16:16):
your bonus transaction this week is to add Devin Singletary.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you subscribed to the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and do
it to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for hanging in there while
my voice sounded the way that it sounds. Greatly appreciate it.
(16:37):
I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with the weekly ten
Trends episode.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera
JJ zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen
in this episode ten sixty two of the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I know I
sound like I just smoked eight packs of cigarettes. This
(00:23):
is what happens when you travel for Thanksgiving and you've
got to todther running around. So apologies for my voice
being even more annoying than it usually is. I also
know that a lot of trade deadlines have passed. I
know that you can't totally act on all the buy
and sell recommendations from the show anymore. With that being said,
I do still have some buys and cells on today's
(00:43):
episode because they can help you with knowing how confident
to feel about certain players. As we get closer to
the end of the season, this show will turn into
more ads and drops the final week, Week seventeen. It's
always the quickest episode of the season because just fill
with those ads and drops. But I did want to
get that caveat out of the way before we dig
into this week's list of transactions. Let's do that now,
(01:09):
add Pat Bryant. So the first three transactions this week,
they're all Denver Broncos. Let's start with Pat Bryant. His
usage has been trending up over the last handful of weeks.
I've talked about him plenty on The Sleeper Show, but
we saw an interesting shift in Week thirteen. He ended
up running five more routes and seeing four more targets
than Troy Franklin. That's something that we hadn't seen all
(01:32):
season long. Brian had a seventy seven percent route share
against Washington and that was in a game that was
coming out of the by. That was a season high
for him. We know that it can take some time
for rookies to see more expanded roles in their offenses.
This is definitely noteworthy. So look at Pat Bryant this
week off the waiver wire sell Courtland Sutton. So if
(01:56):
you have Courtland Sutton, you're probably feeling a little bit
excited after what he did in Week thirteen. He scored
seventeen point two PPR points against the Commanders, which was
his best output since Week five. The problem though, he
only had a fourteen percent target share, that was his
lowest since Week six. Sutton just really hasn't been getting
it done since the first month or so of the season.
(02:17):
From Week six onward, his last seven games, he's averaged
his ten point four PPR points per game. He was
at sixteen point one PPR points per game across his
first five A huge reason for this is competition other
Broncos receivers, the aforementioned Pat Bryant, the aforementioned Troy Franklin.
They've emerged and as a result, since Week five, Cortland
(02:40):
Sutton has his seventeen point seven percent target share per
game rate. Before this stretch, that target share per game
rate was almost twenty three percent. Now, if the schedule
looked good for Denver, it'd be one thing. But in
their remaining four games in the fantasy season, they get
the Raiders, Packers, Jags, and Chiefs. He might be fining
against the Raiders, and I don't mind his perimeter matchup
against the Jags, but all three playoff matchups Green Bay, Jacksonville,
(03:04):
and Kansas City, they're all against bottom half opponents. By
justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, you can usually
spot a cell candidate by looking at production and then
looking at the usage, and right now the production is
up for Courtland Sutton, but the usage, it was still
kind of down. That's why he's a cell After that
Week thirteen performance, sell RJ. Harvey, Okay, this is the
(03:29):
last one about the Denver Broncos. I promise, and I
will say I don't think this transaction. I don't think
it's one that you desperately need to act on, but
it's something that we should probably talk about. RJ. Harvey's
usage without JK. Dobbins, it's been okay, it hasn't been great.
In Week thirteen, we actually saw Harvey's usage decline versus
his other game. Without Dobbins, he was on the field
(03:52):
for just forty seven percent of Denver's offensive snaps. That
number was sixty one percent in week eleven. His route
share was only twenty nine percent against the Commanders. The
last time we saw the Broncos it was forty eight percent. Fortunately,
when he's been on the field, his workload has been okay.
Harvey's been around a sixty five percent running back rush
share and a nine percent target share that can yield
(04:14):
usable results as we saw in Week thirteen, and hey,
maybe that workload improves. The problem here though, is twofold
number one. He outplayed his peripherals in week thirteen, so
naturally he's more of a sell than a buy. But
also look at that playoff schedule. I just talked about
it with Courtland Sutton. The Broncos get the Packers, Jags,
(04:36):
and Chiefs during their three playoff weeks. That gives the
Broncos a bottom five schedule for running backs by justin
points allowed in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. Each of
those teams in this data is pre Monday Night Football,
but each of those teams rank as bottom ten opponents
for running backs according to my schedule adjusted numbers. So again,
this isn't something that you absolutely need to do. R J.
(04:59):
Harvey's a rookie. He could see more work as the
season goes on, There's no doubt. But it's definitely a
good thing to have in the back of your mind
if you're relying on Harvey during the playoffs, which I
know a lot of you probably are. At Blake Koram,
I've talked about Blake Coreum so often on this show.
This can be brief. We can talk about this really quickly.
(05:21):
He's arguably the most valuable handcuff in all of fantasy football,
and yet He's still rostered in just sixteen percent of
Yahoo leagus, and he has some standalone value too. He's
averaged a forty one percent running back rush are per
game rate over his last six that's resulted in ten
rush attempts per game during that timeframe. As I said
in the fifteen Transactions newsletter, tis the season to handcuff.
(05:45):
Blake Koram should be rostered everywhere. Ad Isaac Tesla so
Amaras Saint Brown, had an ankle injury on Thanksgiving. He
could miss some time right now. As it stands today,
it sounds like he's a game time decision for Thursday
Night Football. So thankfully it doesn't seem like it's that
serious of an injury. But this could open the door
(06:07):
for Isaac Tesla. Against the Packers on Thanksgiving, he had
a ninety four percent route chair. He had two targets.
He caught both of them for thirty five yards and
a touchdown. And this week they get the Cowboys. Dallas
is the friendliest team to wide receivers this year by
adjustin points allowed, and they've been specifically bad against perimeter
wide receivers. Teslaw on the year. According to PFFDTA, he's
(06:29):
played seventy two percent of his snaps out wide, So
if Saint Brown does miss this week, Isaac Tesla could
see some fantasy production hold. Terry McLaurin. Terry mclaurin's return
from injury in Week thirteen was pretty awesome. He was
a little bit limited. He ran around on just fifty
nine percent of Washington's dropbacks, but he still saw season
(06:52):
highs and target share at thirty one percent and peep
your points at twenty two point six. He saw a
target on forty four percent of his routes. Run. That's nuts. Now,
your inclination might be to sell that performance. It's not
one that's easily repeatable, but mclauren might be more of
a bye than a cell. Not only could Jade Daniels
(07:13):
be back during the final parts of the fantasy season,
but Washington they're gonna get the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys
in the fantasy playoffs. Now, Philly is an if your matchup,
but the Cowboys in Week seventeen, McLaurin could be awesome
in that matchup. I'd expect mclauren's snaphare and routeshare to
rise over the coming weeks. We can't assume that his
target chair is gonna be thirty one percent each week
(07:35):
even with that increased snapshare and routechair, but it was
really good to see him both healthy and productive. Ad
ad Ni Mitchell. I mentioned on the podcast last week
that ad Ni Mitchell was almost a transaction prior to
Week thirteen after his performance against the Falcons, I wish
I would have kept him on that list. Since being
(07:57):
dealt to the Jets, Mitchell has seen target shares of
twenty four four percent, twenty six percent, and thirty nine percent.
He's coming off the game in Week thirteen where he
caught eight of twelve targets for one hundred and two
yards in a touchdown, So with Garrett Wilson still sidelined,
he makes for an obvious get off the waiver wire
this week at Devon Veleay. So Ever, since Rashid Shiheed
(08:19):
was traded to Seattle, Devon Bailey has seen target shares
about twelve percent, sixteen percent, and twenty four percent in
his three games played. He didn't have that much production
until this past week against Miami, but against Miami he
had twenty three PPR points. He caught all eight of
his targets for ninety three yards in a touchdown. You're
probably only gonna play Veley in deeper leagues, but his
(08:41):
performance in his recent usage it makes him an option
off the waiver wire This week by Bucky Irving to me,
week thirteen was a good one for Bucky Irving. Not
only did he finally get out there and play, but
he also had pretty good usage. Irving snapshare was still
a little bit low, was fifty two percent. It had
(09:02):
been seventy five percent to eighty percent pre injury, but
he walked away from that game against the Cardinals with
an eighty one percent running back rush are and keep
in mind that was his first game back. You have
to ask yourself what happens with Bucky Irving when things
really start cooking Irving and the Bucks. They get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers,
and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season. There's a
(09:25):
very real chance that the Buccaneers see positive game scripts
in each one of those games, and considering Irving's run
game usage in Week thirteen, that means that the odds
are good that he's gonna see a nice amount of work.
None of those matchups are frightening if you've got Bucky Irving,
especially the latter three matchups, which are the Falcons, Panthers,
and Dolphins because those come in the Fantasy playoffs. So
(09:46):
Bucky Irving right now, to me, definitely more of a
bye than a cell add Keaton Mitchell. So when we
talk about handcuffs across the league, very rarely does Keaton
Mitchell's name get brought up. And the likely reason for
that is that he's undersized. Even with a Derrick Henry injury,
Mitchell probably wouldn't get like twenty carries per game. He's
(10:08):
a smaller player, But if Derrick Henry went down, Keaton
Mitchell would definitely get more work in that backfield. Not
only that, but Mitchell starting to see a little bit
more working that Raven's backfield just naturally. Over his last
three games, his routchair has gone up to nineteen percent.
Prior to that it was five percent. That's led to
games with a twelve percent and ten percent target shair
(10:29):
over his last three. Justice Hill is on ir now too. Now,
Mitchell hasn't been the running back to take on Justice
Hill's role, which is that long down and distance work,
that two minute work that's been Rasheen Ali's job, but
without Justice Hill, there's a little bit more room for
work than before. And given Mitchell's speed, he only needs
a few touches to be fantasy relevant. So you've sort
(10:51):
of got a handcuff plus situation going on here, although
that plus it's probably more applicable to deeper leagues, Sell
Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes had a great Week thirteen performance
in fantasy football, There's no doubt, but it was also
really predictable. The Chiefs faced the Cowboys, and no team
(11:11):
in football has allowed more adjusted points to quarterbacks this
year than the Dallas Cowboys. Things are not going to
be that easy. Over the final four weeks of the
fantasy season. The Chiefs get the Texans, Chargers, Titans, and Broncos.
According to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers pre
Monday Night Football, those teams rank as the toughest, the
seventh toughest, the seventeenth toughest, and the second toughest matchups
(11:33):
for quarterbacks by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Mahomes has gotten
it done this year in fantasy, but he's faced two
opponents recently who rank in the bottom five and adjusted
fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks Buffalo and Denver. In those games,
he scored ten and a half and thirteen point three
standard fantasy points. He's also averaged thrower than eighteen standard
fantasy points per game over his last four. He was
(11:56):
at twenty four and a half points per game across
his first eight this season. It's not going to be
an easy ride for Patrick Mahomes rest of season. Ad
Harold Fannin. Over the last month and a half of
the football season, Harold Fannin's usage has kind of been awesome.
It's just being buried because of the offense that he's in.
(12:18):
He's averaging almost a twenty five percent target shapper game
rate over his last six and he hit a season
in career high ninety three percent role participation against the
forty nine Ers this past Sunday. Fannin's still out there
in two thirds of Yahoo leagues, but his remaining schedule
isn't that bad. They get the Titans, Bears, Bills, and
Steelers that Week seventeen game against Pittsburgh. That's particularly interesting
(12:41):
because Pittsburgh this year they've been a top five matchup
for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed. Harold Fannin
might not be a top five guy, but we shouldn't
be leaving this kind of workload on the waiver wire,
at least in my opinion. Add Darren Waller. Now, I
know I've talked about Darren Waller quite bid over the
last month on this show, but I do think this
(13:02):
is worth repeating this transaction for two reasons. First, he
came out in Week thirteen. He essentially saw his standard
Miami Dolphins workload. He had a sixty nine percent route chare.
That was a number that was pretty comparable to his
two healthy games as a Dolphin in Week five and
six earlier this season. He also had a fifteen percent
target share. The usage overall was not bad. And the
(13:24):
second reason that you should be rostering Waller is the schedule.
You've heard this before, but Miami has the best schedule
in the Fantasy playoffs for tight ends. That's because he
gets the Steelers, the fourth best matchup for tight ends
by justin points allowed, and then the Bengals, which is
the best matchup. He gets them in Week fifteen and sixteen.
So at a minimum, he can help you get to
(13:45):
the Fantasy Championship where he faces the Buccaneers, and the
Buccaneers are mostly an average opponent for tight ends, so
if Waller balls out in those two matchups, maybe you'll
have confidence to even play him in Week seventeen. At
the very least, I do think he can be usable
and that Week fifteen and sixteen stretch. Add the Miami
(14:05):
Dolphins defense. So how about this. The Dolphins have ranked
as a top seven fantasy defense and four of their
last five games. And again, this is pre Monday Night Football,
so technically some defense could jump them if they perform
well tonight. I'm just recording it before Monday Night Football,
so you guys can listen to this during your commute
on Tuesday. Regardless, Miami's gotten it done against mediocre offenses,
(14:27):
but that's exactly what they're gonna face this week against
New York. They get the Jets. Now, New York has
been a worse matchup for opposing defenses now that Justin
Fields is benched. But the Dolphins right now their road favorites,
and that game has a low forty two and a
half point total. They're a pretty safe streaming option this week.
(14:48):
Add the Detroit Lions defense. The Lions get the Cowboys
this week. So you probably just heard that transaction and
you're a little bit confused. But here's the thing. If
you're looking at the playoffs, you might want to stat Detroit.
They won't be that usable more than likely in Week
fifteen against the Rams, but then in Week sixteen they're
going to be home against the Steelers, and then in
(15:08):
week seventeen they're gonna be on the road against the
currently horrific Minnesota Vikings offense. So if you're in a
league that stashes defenses, if you're in a league where
only a few defenses are available, Detroit might be dropped
this week because they get Dallas. And if they are dropped,
you might want to consider picking them up and stashing
them for week sixteen and seventeen. So, as you guys know,
(15:34):
I'm under the weather. My brain's going a little slower
than usual. And as I was watching that Monday night
football game, I didn't even think to add Devin Singletary
to this transactions list, even though I absolutely should have,
because Tyrone Tracy has a hip injury and Devin Singletary
he stepped in last night and he had a strong workload.
He had his highest running back rush here since week nine,
(15:55):
he hit his highest target share of the season at
twelve and a half percent. The Giants have a bye
this week, but if Tracy misses anytime Singletary he has
a shot to be in the RB two conversation. The
Giants had the fourth best running back schedule in the
Fantasy Football playoffs. That's according to my adjusted Fantasy points
allowed numbers. They get the Commanders, Vikings, and Raiders, So
(16:16):
your bonus transaction this week is to add Devin Singletary.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you subscribed to the Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and do
it to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
at Late Round QB. Thanks for hanging in there while
my voice sounded the way that it sounds. Greatly appreciate it.
(16:37):
I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with the weekly ten
Trends episode.
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