December 3, 2025 • 14 mins
On this week's 10 Trends episode, JJ talks about the New England backfield, the Carolina backfield, a macro wide receiver trend, and so much more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach
or Esen in this episode ten sixty three of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Before we get into the trends this week, I want
to send another reminder about the Late Round newsletter. The
season might be ending soon, but during the off season,
I'm still sending out research. I'm sending out articles in
that newsletter all the time. Not only that, but over
the next month through the end of the season, I'm
still sending out the fifteen Transactions newsletter, the data Dump,
and then David Kitchen does a wrap up email at
(00:40):
the end of each week. Also with that newsletter, you'll
get notified when I need to add to existing content.
For instance, with yesterday's fifteen Transactions episode, I send out
an email letting people know that I'd missed Devin Singletary
as a transaction. My current man cold is making my
brain work a little bit slower, so I miss Singletary
on the Transaction Action show. But I did add it
(01:02):
later on, and then I sent that notification via the newsletter. Anyway,
check it all out lateround dot com. It's absolutely free.
Just click newsletter at the top of the page. Now
let's get to these trends. We now have another data
point with this Patriots backfield journey, and it's not the
best one for Trayvon Henderson managers. In Week twelve, against
(01:23):
the Bengals, the game where Ramandre Stevenson returned to the lineup,
Trayvon Henderson had a seventy two percent running back rush
share and a twelve percent target share. He had great peripherals,
but against the Giants on Monday Night, that running back
rush share it felled a forty eight percent. That was
his lowest mark since Week eight. Meanwhile, Ramandre Stevenson saw
(01:43):
a snapshare go from thirty one percent in week twelve
to sixty one percent. In week thirteen, Henderson's fell from
sixty four percent to forty eight percent. Now, the Patriots
were clearly trying to get Henderson involved in the pass game.
He had a thirteen percent target share. He said, really
good target share numbers over his last five games, so
that's good. That'll keep him a float in PPR leagues.
(02:05):
The problem though, in Week thirteen, Ramandre Stevenson still ran
more routes than Travon Henderson. I mean, at this point,
it's a pretty unpredictable backfield, and it's highly unlikely we're
gonna see the week ten, week eleven usage from Henderson
that he was getting without Stevenson.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
With that being said, and I've.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Noted this before, both players can be fantasy relevant. Henderson's
the kind of back who can make splash plays, so
twelve to fifteen touches in the game can still give
them a ceiling, and their.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Schedule is still really good.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
They've got to buy this week, but then it's the Bills, Ravens,
and Jets to close the fantasy season.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
That's not bad. But yeah, if I.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Were coaching New England, this split would favor Travon Henderson more.
I don't think Henderson should be like an eighty percent
running back rush here player, and he's had his issues
in pass pro, but I really think that he should
be in that like sixty sixty five percent range. Not
just by the eye test either.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Just look at what.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Happened in Week thirteen. Henderson had three of his eleven
rushes go for ten or more yards. Stevenson didn't have any.
Henderson had a rushing yards over expected per attempt rate
of plus one point four. Stevenson was at minus point one.
Henderson had a forty five point five percent success rate.
Stevenson was at twenty five percent. On the season, it's completely.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Night and day.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Rushing yards over expected per rush Henderson plus point six,
Stevenson plus point one yards after contact per attempt Henderson
three point six, Stevenson two point five. Ten plus yard
run rate Henderson nine point three percent, Stevenson five point
nine percent success rate. And this is a binary thing.
(03:46):
It's either you were successful on a run or you
weren't successful. This is a metric that a player like
Romandre Stevenson should be good at. But Henderson has a
forty two point six percent success rate, Stevenson twenty nine
point seven percent.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
You can only do so much as a fantasy manager.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
As I always say, running back comes down to how
a team just wants to divvy up a backfield, and
right now, despite the talent discrepancy, this is what New
England wants to do. And it's likely because they just
want a bruiser back there who can pass pro. But
if you want more takes on pass protection, I did
tweet about it on Tuesday, you can check my Twitter
account at late round QB. That pass pro stuff is
(04:27):
for another episode though. Now I know I say all
of that about the Patriots backfield, but it's not like
they've been bad offensively or anything. Clearly things are working.
I just am arguing that it can work even better.
In a similar argument can be made for Stefan Diggs.
His usage recently has been really awful. Over his last
two games, he's seen target shairs of nine percent and
(04:48):
thirteen percent. That's after having twenty eight percent and thirty
three percent target hairs in two games prior, and one
of the big issues he's quite literally just not being
used as much. In Week twelve, he had a route
share of fifty four percent.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
That's horrible.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
That was his lowest route participation rate of the season.
In Week thirteen, it was not that much better. It
was sixty one percent. This could very easily be a
game script thing or the Patriots just saving Stefan Dicks.
We'll see what happens if they fall behind in some games,
but Diggs is the highest yards per rout run rate
on that Patriots team. He clearly could be doing more.
(05:28):
Chase Brown had a fine Thanksgiving game from a fantasy perspective,
but there's no doubt that Samaj p Ryan being back
is hurting his ceiling. In his three games without p
Ryan heading up to Week thirteen, Brown had snapshares of
ninety five percent, eighty three percent, and ninety percent. His
rout shares in those games eighty six percent, eighty three percent,
and seventy four percent. Against the Ravens, Brown had a
(05:50):
fifty nine percent snapshare, and then his rout share was
only fifty six percent. You might be looking at his
receiving totals and thinking everything's fine, but he just happened
to be targeted on twenty five percent of his routes
run one of the higher marks of the season. His
rout share did take a hit with Samaj p Ryan. Now,
I think Brown is still a good fantasy asset, but
(06:11):
managers should be aware that the elite usage is likely
gone rest of season. Now it's just pretty good usage
because samajp RAN's back. I was looking at the Fantasy
Points data suite doing some research, and I noticed that
Jalen Cocher had a really high first red target share
on Sunday against the Rams.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
So I went back and I dug into it.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Even further, and because of his five first red targets
this past week, Cocher over the last three weeks combined,
he's tied with Ttero McMillan with a twenty two percent
first retarget share. Coker scored eleven, six and seventeen pper
points during that timeframe. Now, he's still playing about half
of his snaps from the slot according to PFF, but
(06:53):
his route share it's still been better than Xavier legetzev Late,
the Panthers are still dead last in the league and
pass right over expected, so he's probably not easy to trust,
but Kocher is someone to at least have on your
radar right now, or at least he's someone to watch
for dynasty purposes. Speaking of the Panthers, we should probably
talk about the biggest trends related storyline from week thirteen
(07:15):
or arguably, which is how that backfield was split. Rico
o'dowdell has now seen his running back rush are drop
in each consecutive week.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Since Week nine.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
He was at eighty six percent, than seventy nine percent,
than sixty seven percent, and then this past week fifty
one percent. Chuba Hubbard actually played fifty eight percent of
Carolina snaps to dwdo's forty four percent against the Rams.
We haven't seen that happen since Week eight. And to
be honest, Chuba was better. He looked more explosive than
he has all year, and he's now had target shares
(07:46):
of fourteen percent and eleven percent over his last two games. Unfortunately,
this just kind of sucks for fantasy football. It makes
Cuba Hubbard usable and better, and it makes Rico dowdle worse,
and it makes both players not as predictable and usable overall.
It's a full blown split backfield. This is what I
say all the time though on this show, when you're
not talking about elite talents, and Rico o'dowdele is not
(08:08):
an elite talent. But when you don't have elite talents,
those players are always fragile.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
In fantasy football.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Sometimes they can really pay off, but sometimes you also
just go back to a split backfield because coaches won't
give a player like Rico o'dowdell the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
It's not like he's Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Where Jonathan Taylor, if he has a down game or two,
he's still going to see a big workload because it's
Jonathan Taylor. Taysom Hill only played twelve snaps on Sunday,
and that was really big for Devin Neil in particular.
Neil saw an eighty one percent snap share, which was
a season high. He handled seventy four percent of the
team's running back rushes, and he had a fifty eight
(08:47):
percent total rush share. Two the week prior that number
was twenty eight percent, and his rout share and went
up from sixty nine percent to seventy one percent. I mean, realistically,
we're talking about Bell Cow numbers for Devin nil. It
would just be nice if this offense were better so
he could actually capitalize. But right now he's like a
volume based flex play without Alvin Kamara. The lack of
(09:10):
Tasam usage was really good for him. The Dolphins have
gotten a lot more run heavy recently. From weeks one
through six to a tongue of Bayaloa averaged thirty point
three pass attemps per game. Since then, he's been at
twenty five point five. And this isn't simply a game
script thing. Miami had a plus four percent dropbacks over
expected rate through Week six according to Fantasy Life Data.
(09:33):
That ranked fourth in the NFL since then. Since Week six,
they've been at a minus seven percent dropbacks over expected
rate from Week seven through now that ranks third lowest
in the league. Devon Ai Chan is doing more work
on the ground as a result, he's seen rush attemp
totals of twenty two, twenty one to twenty two over
(09:53):
his last three games. Those are three of the four
highest rush attemp totals of his entire career, and they've
come over the line three games. Keep in mind too,
Dolphin's running backs. According to My numbers, they have a
top ten fantasy playoff schedule. When a player's in a
bad offense, in order for that player to do well
in fantasy, he needs to see even more volume than
(10:14):
a player in some ordinary offense. Breise Hall has a
jet he needs to see a ton of volume, and
throughout the season he's seen a pretty good workload, but
Isaiah Davis has often been involved well. In Week thirteen,
that really wasn't the case, at least not as much.
Hall saw season high eighty nine percent snapshare. That was
the first time he'd been above the eighty percent mark
all season long. That resulted in one hundred percent running
(10:37):
back rush share, which was also the first time that
he saw all the team's rush attempts in a game. Now,
he's still annoyingly isn't seeing a ton of work through
the air since Braylan Allen's injury. Hall has just an
eight point seven percent target share per game rate that
was eighteen point two percent with Braylan Allen. But more
volume can't be a bad thing. The problem is that
(10:58):
their fantasy playoff schedule is rough. They have matchups against
the Jags, Saints, and Patriots. Those are three teams that
rank well into the bottom half of the league as
matchups for running backs by justin points allowed.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
I'm a little bit concerned about Ronde Gadston.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
The Chargers have had their issues with the offensive line,
and Tucker Fisk ended up playing a little bit more
in Week thirteen, likely to help out with blocking. That
resulted in Ronde Gadston seemed just a sixty eight.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Percent route share.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
That was his lowest mark in a healthy game since
Week five. If the Chargers were in positive game scripts,
we might see more of this. But here's the good news.
Through the end of the fantasy season, the Chargers only
have kind of tough matchups like From a real football perspective,
they get the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Texans to close
out the season. So if they're not forcing the run,
(11:48):
if they're playing from behind in any of those games,
that's gonna help the pass catching Gadston more.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
At least that's how I see it.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
The last trend this week, it's more of a macro
trend than almost definitely be looking into during the offseason.
When I do my rankings each week, I always joke
that there are like eight good wide receivers and then
the next group of receivers is in this giant tier.
It just feels like every week there's so much volatility
at that position, and it's because the position is underperforming
(12:17):
this year. Since twenty eleven, the wide receiver twelve by
PPR points per game has averaged sixteen point one points
per contest. Only once has the wide receiver twelve fallen
below fifteen PPR points during that time.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Per game.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
This year, the wide receiver twelve by PPR points per game,
it's Aj Brown. He's at fourteen point seven points per game.
But like I said, the top of the position is
performing fine. In fact, the wide receiver six by points
per game right now is Jamar Chase. He's just over
nineteen points per game. The average for the wide receiver
six since twenty eleven has been eighteen point four, so
(12:55):
the top guys are overperforming versus where they've typically been at.
We saw the wide receiver twelve as well under the
normal mark. The wide receiver eighteen is currently at thirteen
point four PPR points per game. Since twenty eleven, the
average wide receiver eighteen has been at fourteen point nine,
and no season has had a wide receiver eighteen performed
(13:17):
this poorly. To put all this another way, if you've
had good production at wide receiver like Rashi, Rice Jackson
Smith and Jigbu Phukinakua, George Pickens, Drake London, Jamar Chase,
DeVante Adams, Amanas Saint Brown, maybe Ceedee Lamb and Nico Collins.
I mean, those are the guys who are giving you
such a great edge over the rest of the position
(13:37):
this year. If you have those players, those guys are very,
very valuable because it's hard to find that production at
wide receiver this season. It's going to be really fun
this offseason investigating all of that.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
That's it for today's show.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Though, thanks to all of you for listening and for
putting up with my voice. If you get subscribed to
the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are
by searching for it. Pretty much any podcast can be found,
and don't for to follow me on Twitter and on
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly
Sleeper Show.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach
or Esen in this episode ten sixty three of the
Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Before we get into the trends this week, I want
to send another reminder about the Late Round newsletter. The
season might be ending soon, but during the off season,
I'm still sending out research. I'm sending out articles in
that newsletter all the time. Not only that, but over
the next month through the end of the season, I'm
still sending out the fifteen Transactions newsletter, the data Dump,
and then David Kitchen does a wrap up email at
(00:40):
the end of each week. Also with that newsletter, you'll
get notified when I need to add to existing content.
For instance, with yesterday's fifteen Transactions episode, I send out
an email letting people know that I'd missed Devin Singletary
as a transaction. My current man cold is making my
brain work a little bit slower, so I miss Singletary
on the Transaction Action show. But I did add it
(01:02):
later on, and then I sent that notification via the newsletter. Anyway,
check it all out lateround dot com. It's absolutely free.
Just click newsletter at the top of the page. Now
let's get to these trends. We now have another data
point with this Patriots backfield journey, and it's not the
best one for Trayvon Henderson managers. In Week twelve, against
(01:23):
the Bengals, the game where Ramandre Stevenson returned to the lineup,
Trayvon Henderson had a seventy two percent running back rush
share and a twelve percent target share. He had great peripherals,
but against the Giants on Monday Night, that running back
rush share it felled a forty eight percent. That was
his lowest mark since Week eight. Meanwhile, Ramandre Stevenson saw
(01:43):
a snapshare go from thirty one percent in week twelve
to sixty one percent. In week thirteen, Henderson's fell from
sixty four percent to forty eight percent. Now, the Patriots
were clearly trying to get Henderson involved in the pass game.
He had a thirteen percent target share. He said, really
good target share numbers over his last five games, so
that's good. That'll keep him a float in PPR leagues.
(02:05):
The problem though, in Week thirteen, Ramandre Stevenson still ran
more routes than Travon Henderson. I mean, at this point,
it's a pretty unpredictable backfield, and it's highly unlikely we're
gonna see the week ten, week eleven usage from Henderson
that he was getting without Stevenson.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
With that being said, and I've.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Noted this before, both players can be fantasy relevant. Henderson's
the kind of back who can make splash plays, so
twelve to fifteen touches in the game can still give
them a ceiling, and their.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Schedule is still really good.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
They've got to buy this week, but then it's the Bills, Ravens,
and Jets to close the fantasy season.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
That's not bad. But yeah, if I.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Were coaching New England, this split would favor Travon Henderson more.
I don't think Henderson should be like an eighty percent
running back rush here player, and he's had his issues
in pass pro, but I really think that he should
be in that like sixty sixty five percent range. Not
just by the eye test either.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Just look at what.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Happened in Week thirteen. Henderson had three of his eleven
rushes go for ten or more yards. Stevenson didn't have any.
Henderson had a rushing yards over expected per attempt rate
of plus one point four. Stevenson was at minus point one.
Henderson had a forty five point five percent success rate.
Stevenson was at twenty five percent. On the season, it's completely.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Night and day.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Rushing yards over expected per rush Henderson plus point six,
Stevenson plus point one yards after contact per attempt Henderson
three point six, Stevenson two point five. Ten plus yard
run rate Henderson nine point three percent, Stevenson five point
nine percent success rate. And this is a binary thing.
(03:46):
It's either you were successful on a run or you
weren't successful. This is a metric that a player like
Romandre Stevenson should be good at. But Henderson has a
forty two point six percent success rate, Stevenson twenty nine
point seven percent.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
You can only do so much as a fantasy manager.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
As I always say, running back comes down to how
a team just wants to divvy up a backfield, and
right now, despite the talent discrepancy, this is what New
England wants to do. And it's likely because they just
want a bruiser back there who can pass pro. But
if you want more takes on pass protection, I did
tweet about it on Tuesday, you can check my Twitter
account at late round QB. That pass pro stuff is
(04:27):
for another episode though. Now I know I say all
of that about the Patriots backfield, but it's not like
they've been bad offensively or anything. Clearly things are working.
I just am arguing that it can work even better.
In a similar argument can be made for Stefan Diggs.
His usage recently has been really awful. Over his last
two games, he's seen target shairs of nine percent and
(04:48):
thirteen percent. That's after having twenty eight percent and thirty
three percent target hairs in two games prior, and one
of the big issues he's quite literally just not being
used as much. In Week twelve, he had a route
share of fifty four percent.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
That's horrible.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
That was his lowest route participation rate of the season.
In Week thirteen, it was not that much better. It
was sixty one percent. This could very easily be a
game script thing or the Patriots just saving Stefan Dicks.
We'll see what happens if they fall behind in some games,
but Diggs is the highest yards per rout run rate
on that Patriots team. He clearly could be doing more.
(05:28):
Chase Brown had a fine Thanksgiving game from a fantasy perspective,
but there's no doubt that Samaj p Ryan being back
is hurting his ceiling. In his three games without p
Ryan heading up to Week thirteen, Brown had snapshares of
ninety five percent, eighty three percent, and ninety percent. His
rout shares in those games eighty six percent, eighty three percent,
and seventy four percent. Against the Ravens, Brown had a
(05:50):
fifty nine percent snapshare, and then his rout share was
only fifty six percent. You might be looking at his
receiving totals and thinking everything's fine, but he just happened
to be targeted on twenty five percent of his routes
run one of the higher marks of the season. His
rout share did take a hit with Samaj p Ryan. Now,
I think Brown is still a good fantasy asset, but
(06:11):
managers should be aware that the elite usage is likely
gone rest of season. Now it's just pretty good usage
because samajp RAN's back. I was looking at the Fantasy
Points data suite doing some research, and I noticed that
Jalen Cocher had a really high first red target share
on Sunday against the Rams.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
So I went back and I dug into it.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Even further, and because of his five first red targets
this past week, Cocher over the last three weeks combined,
he's tied with Ttero McMillan with a twenty two percent
first retarget share. Coker scored eleven, six and seventeen pper
points during that timeframe. Now, he's still playing about half
of his snaps from the slot according to PFF, but
(06:53):
his route share it's still been better than Xavier legetzev Late,
the Panthers are still dead last in the league and
pass right over expected, so he's probably not easy to trust,
but Kocher is someone to at least have on your
radar right now, or at least he's someone to watch
for dynasty purposes. Speaking of the Panthers, we should probably
talk about the biggest trends related storyline from week thirteen
(07:15):
or arguably, which is how that backfield was split. Rico
o'dowdell has now seen his running back rush are drop
in each consecutive week.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Since Week nine.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
He was at eighty six percent, than seventy nine percent,
than sixty seven percent, and then this past week fifty
one percent. Chuba Hubbard actually played fifty eight percent of
Carolina snaps to dwdo's forty four percent against the Rams.
We haven't seen that happen since Week eight. And to
be honest, Chuba was better. He looked more explosive than
he has all year, and he's now had target shares
(07:46):
of fourteen percent and eleven percent over his last two games. Unfortunately,
this just kind of sucks for fantasy football. It makes
Cuba Hubbard usable and better, and it makes Rico dowdle worse,
and it makes both players not as predictable and usable overall.
It's a full blown split backfield. This is what I
say all the time though on this show, when you're
not talking about elite talents, and Rico o'dowdele is not
(08:08):
an elite talent. But when you don't have elite talents,
those players are always fragile.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
In fantasy football.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Sometimes they can really pay off, but sometimes you also
just go back to a split backfield because coaches won't
give a player like Rico o'dowdell the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
It's not like he's Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Where Jonathan Taylor, if he has a down game or two,
he's still going to see a big workload because it's
Jonathan Taylor. Taysom Hill only played twelve snaps on Sunday,
and that was really big for Devin Neil in particular.
Neil saw an eighty one percent snap share, which was
a season high. He handled seventy four percent of the
team's running back rushes, and he had a fifty eight
(08:47):
percent total rush share. Two the week prior that number
was twenty eight percent, and his rout share and went
up from sixty nine percent to seventy one percent. I mean, realistically,
we're talking about Bell Cow numbers for Devin nil. It
would just be nice if this offense were better so
he could actually capitalize. But right now he's like a
volume based flex play without Alvin Kamara. The lack of
(09:10):
Tasam usage was really good for him. The Dolphins have
gotten a lot more run heavy recently. From weeks one
through six to a tongue of Bayaloa averaged thirty point
three pass attemps per game. Since then, he's been at
twenty five point five. And this isn't simply a game
script thing. Miami had a plus four percent dropbacks over
expected rate through Week six according to Fantasy Life Data.
(09:33):
That ranked fourth in the NFL since then. Since Week six,
they've been at a minus seven percent dropbacks over expected
rate from Week seven through now that ranks third lowest
in the league. Devon Ai Chan is doing more work
on the ground as a result, he's seen rush attemp
totals of twenty two, twenty one to twenty two over
(09:53):
his last three games. Those are three of the four
highest rush attemp totals of his entire career, and they've
come over the line three games. Keep in mind too,
Dolphin's running backs. According to My numbers, they have a
top ten fantasy playoff schedule. When a player's in a
bad offense, in order for that player to do well
in fantasy, he needs to see even more volume than
(10:14):
a player in some ordinary offense. Breise Hall has a
jet he needs to see a ton of volume, and
throughout the season he's seen a pretty good workload, but
Isaiah Davis has often been involved well. In Week thirteen,
that really wasn't the case, at least not as much.
Hall saw season high eighty nine percent snapshare. That was
the first time he'd been above the eighty percent mark
all season long. That resulted in one hundred percent running
(10:37):
back rush share, which was also the first time that
he saw all the team's rush attempts in a game. Now,
he's still annoyingly isn't seeing a ton of work through
the air since Braylan Allen's injury. Hall has just an
eight point seven percent target share per game rate that
was eighteen point two percent with Braylan Allen. But more
volume can't be a bad thing. The problem is that
(10:58):
their fantasy playoff schedule is rough. They have matchups against
the Jags, Saints, and Patriots. Those are three teams that
rank well into the bottom half of the league as
matchups for running backs by justin points allowed.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
I'm a little bit concerned about Ronde Gadston.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
The Chargers have had their issues with the offensive line,
and Tucker Fisk ended up playing a little bit more
in Week thirteen, likely to help out with blocking. That
resulted in Ronde Gadston seemed just a sixty eight.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Percent route share.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
That was his lowest mark in a healthy game since
Week five. If the Chargers were in positive game scripts,
we might see more of this. But here's the good news.
Through the end of the fantasy season, the Chargers only
have kind of tough matchups like From a real football perspective,
they get the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Texans to close
out the season. So if they're not forcing the run,
(11:48):
if they're playing from behind in any of those games,
that's gonna help the pass catching Gadston more.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
At least that's how I see it.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
The last trend this week, it's more of a macro
trend than almost definitely be looking into during the offseason.
When I do my rankings each week, I always joke
that there are like eight good wide receivers and then
the next group of receivers is in this giant tier.
It just feels like every week there's so much volatility
at that position, and it's because the position is underperforming
(12:17):
this year. Since twenty eleven, the wide receiver twelve by
PPR points per game has averaged sixteen point one points
per contest. Only once has the wide receiver twelve fallen
below fifteen PPR points during that time.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Per game.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
This year, the wide receiver twelve by PPR points per game,
it's Aj Brown. He's at fourteen point seven points per game.
But like I said, the top of the position is
performing fine. In fact, the wide receiver six by points
per game right now is Jamar Chase. He's just over
nineteen points per game. The average for the wide receiver
six since twenty eleven has been eighteen point four, so
(12:55):
the top guys are overperforming versus where they've typically been at.
We saw the wide receiver twelve as well under the
normal mark. The wide receiver eighteen is currently at thirteen
point four PPR points per game. Since twenty eleven, the
average wide receiver eighteen has been at fourteen point nine,
and no season has had a wide receiver eighteen performed
(13:17):
this poorly. To put all this another way, if you've
had good production at wide receiver like Rashi, Rice Jackson
Smith and Jigbu Phukinakua, George Pickens, Drake London, Jamar Chase,
DeVante Adams, Amanas Saint Brown, maybe Ceedee Lamb and Nico Collins.
I mean, those are the guys who are giving you
such a great edge over the rest of the position
(13:37):
this year. If you have those players, those guys are very,
very valuable because it's hard to find that production at
wide receiver this season. It's going to be really fun
this offseason investigating all of that.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
That's it for today's show.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Though, thanks to all of you for listening and for
putting up with my voice. If you get subscribed to
the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are
by searching for it. Pretty much any podcast can be found,
and don't for to follow me on Twitter and on
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly
Sleeper Show.
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