December 5, 2025 • 16 mins
Should fantasy managers who aren't in the playoffs be able to make waiver wire moves? Is Cam Ward doomed in dynasty? Could Jakobi Meyers be a league-winner? JJ talks about those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson
in this episode ten to sixty five of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Well, little uh, my voice is
(00:22):
still jacked up, so I'm gonna save it as much
as I can for these mailback questions. I mean, I
even had my son do the Thanks for tuning in,
so let's get right to it.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from David.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
It says, is there a standard approach to limiting waiver
wires slash free agent activity for teams that are not
in competition for a league championship? In our league, we
have a mildly embarrassing reward for the team that comes
in last place, So technically everyone still has something to
play for even if they're not in the championship bracket.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Thoughts.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
So I talk about this each year, but I got
this question a few times this week, so let's just
talk talk about it again so that we're all on
the same page. I also think it's an interesting discussion.
I think the common take for this from fantasy analysts
is to say that only teams in the actual playoffs
should be able to make moves off the waiver wire.
And while I understand that stance, here's the counterpoint to that,
(01:17):
why should playoff teams have an easier time getting.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Players off the waiver wire? To me, the best team
should win the Fantasy Championship.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
I know we play these single elimination tournaments and it's
not always going to be that way.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
That's fine.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
It's the same deal in the actual NFL, but I
at least want those single elimination tournaments to be fair,
and to me, the best teams they're the ones who
are most prepared for that stretch run. It's the teams
who have the best rosters going in, not the ones
who luck into a couple of running back injuries and
get the handcuffs off the waiver wire going into Week seventeen. Now.
(01:51):
I know the other side of this argument is that
the team should just plan ahead, stash all the handcuffs,
make sure you're blocking your opponents, and that's all fair.
I'm just saying as a counterpoint that I don't think
this is as black and white as people make it seem.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I see both sides.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Of the argument, and that's especially true if the non
playoff teams are playing for something like if there's a
punishment involved, Yeah, I would want to be adding players
off the waiver wire. If I was playing for last place.
How is that any different than the championship bracket. You're
still playing for something. Generally, if my teams are out
of the playoffs and there's nothing on the line, I'm
(02:30):
not adding players to my teams. There's no reason to.
It's kind of freeing knowing that there's one fewer league
that I have to deal with, if I'm being honest,
and that's probably the way that most leagues should act.
If you're not playing for anything, then don't add anyone.
If you are, then you should be able to add
during the regular waivers. Now, if you're in a situation
where maybe people are playing for something small, don't allow
(02:54):
them to add players during the waiver period, but allow
them to get guys in free agency once that period ends.
But I did want to introduce the Devil's Advocate to
all of that, because I think there's something to be
said about having an easier time getting the hot waiver
ad for that week, and it's not talked about enough.
It's at least something to think about this be'st question
(03:15):
from Jeff h It says, what do we do with
Lamar Jackson? His potential upside is still leading to consistently
high weekly rankings, but he just doesn't look right for
teams that have managed to make the playoffs or are
on the cusp. Despite rostering Lamar, where do we go
from here? I'm legitimately considering benching him for Jacoby Brissett
for the rest.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Of the season.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So one thing I'll say, and maybe this isn't relevant,
I don't know, but I'll often get questions like this
where it's like, should I play this fringe player rest
of season? And my answer is, why give yourself that
problem to answer right now?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Fantasy football is a weekly game. Take it week by week.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I have no issue if you're worried about Lamar Jackson
and you'd rather just use Jacoby Brissett this week, even
in a tougher matchup, because he's been giving us really
good fantasy production. But what if Lamar Jackson blows up
this week against Pittsburgh, You're just gonna start toa Kobe
Brissette rest of season because you said you would in
Week fourteen. If the questions about dropping Lamar Jackson. I
(04:16):
would not do that, but I agree with you he's
not totally looking right. But Jackson could have had a
much much better outing last week in Fantasy if not
for a couple of things happening, like the Isaiah Likely
fumble or the pass interference call that doesn't always get
called on Zay Flowers. What was good to see was
that Lamar Jackson had two design rush attempts after having
(04:38):
just one and the two prior games combined, and he
was scrambling a little bit more too. The problem is
that Pittsburgh has historically played him pretty well, so I
think this week there's just a ton of volatility. You
have to ask yourself if you can handle that and
if your team needs that. But I can tell you
that I would not be dropping Lamar Jackson right now,
(05:00):
even if he still hasn't looked one hundred percent himself
and they get the Bengals and the Patriots in weeks
fifteen and sixteen. You wouldn't be very happy if someone
else had Lamar Jackson in your fantasy playoff because you
dropped him, and then Lamar Jackson just goes off because
those are two very good matchups. So if you want
to bench him this week, if you want to wait
and see, I totally get that logic. I understand, but
(05:24):
there's no chance that right now I would be dropping
Lamar Jackson. This best question is from Twitter. It's from
at TLW Travis. It says, in the playoffs and with benchroom,
what's your stance on having more than one quarterback and
tight end? I currently have three quarterbacks and two tight ends.
My wide receivers and running backs are strong. Tempted to
(05:46):
drop someone like Rodriguez to add Fannin and play matchups
with my tight ends. Free agents are bad. So I've
heard different iterations to this over the last couple of weeks,
and I think it just needs to be said. Guys,
you gotta do what you got to do during this
time of year with your bench. In the early parts
of the season, you want more running back and wide
receiver flyers. That slowly shifts as you get closer to
(06:08):
the playoffs. You want more insurance. If you're a championship
caliber team, you want more volatility. If you're not having
multiple onesies, quarterbacks and tight ends, it's more of that insurance.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Play, even if.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
It means that you're blocking other teams. When you have
an inferior team that's barely getting into the dance, you
might want to go with more running back handcuffs of
running backs that you don't have, like get Blake Koram
if you don't have Kien Williams. I mean, you should
have Blake Korum regardless, or just get some wide receivers
with upside, because those positions are objectively more important in
(06:44):
fantasy football. But if you feel good about those important positions,
then you need to do what you got to do
at quarterback and tight end. I have multiple quarterbacks and
tight ends and tons of my leagues. Rostering a lot
of them not only gives you flexibility for that three
week playoff run, but it can also block your opponents
from streaming.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So do as you wish. It's no big deal this
time of year.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
This best question is also from Twitter's from at who
Dat's Say nine, It says, what does the playoff outlook
for Jacoby Myers Parker Washington's injured had twenty percent of
slot snaps last week and ninety four percent routeshare twenty
six percent target share. Seems like a ridiculously solid flex
play at worst moving forward, yeah, I agree. The more
(07:30):
I've dug into Jacoby Myers' profile and what he's done
over the last few weeks, the more I like him.
I talked about this on The Sleeper Show, but Myers
has seen target shares of twenty seven percent, twenty percent,
and twenty four percent over his last three games. He's
seen eleven fifteen to twenty one PPR points, and over
the last two weeks, he's had routshares of ninety one
percent and ninety four percent. According to Fantasy Points data,
(07:54):
Myers is a twenty eight percent first read target share
over his last three games. That's basically a top twenty
number on wide receiver across the league during that timeframe,
and during those three weeks, only five wide receivers have
more end zone targets. Now, Jacksonville does get Denver in
Week sixteen, so Myers is going to be tougher to
play in that matchup, and we'll see where Sauce Gardner
(08:15):
is at when they face off in week seventeen. But
at the very least, it's hard to not like him
over the next two weeks against the Colts and the Jets,
especially with his Parker Washington injury. Myers feels pretty underrated
right now. The last question this week is from robot
Randy on Bluesky. It says, should cammore Dynasty managers be
(08:37):
terrified or can we comfortably blame the dog you know
what ecosystem. So there are two levels to looking at
something like this. One is the first, analyze the player
and assess a proper hit rate to that player's profile.
I mean you don't need an actual number. I just
mean look at history, look at what the player's working with,
maybe find some comps and see what the odds are
(08:58):
that he's going to actually pan out into some super
usable fantasy asset. And then there's the cost element. A
lot of times I'll still invest in draft players who
I don't even love because the market doesn't love them either.
Like I didn't think Kyle Manungai was that great of
a prospect. I still doubt he becomes like a true
belcal back, but he's definitely been really good, don't get
me wrong. But I still drafted him in both Dynasty
(09:21):
and Reed draft leagues in Best Ball leagues because the
cost was nothing, and there were situational factors that were
really working in his favor, like the system that he
was in in the backfield competition that he had. So
let's look at that first piece first. What has cam
Wored done and have other quarterbacks in a similar boat
taken the leap in future years. Let's just look simply
(09:43):
at fantasy points per game wards averaging nine point seven
standard fantasy points per game right now, which is not great.
We've had forty nine rookie quarterbacks play eight or more
games since twenty eleven while also hitting two hundred pass attempts. Now,
looking at just points per game with those guys isn't
super helpful because a lot of them played in games
but didn't start, like Lamar Jackson, for example. So I
(10:04):
looked at those forty nine quarterbacks and found their points
per game averages and games where they had fifteen or
more pass attempts during their rookie season. There were four
quarterbacks who were under the ten points per game mark,
Bryce Young, Dwayne Haskins, rest In Peace, Josh Rosen, and
Blaine Gabbert. When you changed that filter to twelve points
per game, you add Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Kaiser, Mitch Trubisky,
(10:29):
Derek Carr, Austin Davis, and Brandon Weeden. Right now, cam
Mood has an adjusted net yards per attemporary of four
point zero among rookie quarterbacks since twenty eleven with two
hundred pass attempts. So this ignores games played, So our
samples a little bit bigger. Only Zach Wilson, Blake Bortles,
Deshaun Kaiser, Bryce Young, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Rosen, and Jared
(10:51):
Goff were worse.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Right above Ward in.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
That statistic, it is Spencer Ratler, Gino Smith, Justin Fields,
Christian Ponder, and then Dwayne Haskins, and then after that
you finally get Josh Allen like a big hit. Now,
I could do this for days, no matter how you
slice it, no matter the metric you're looking at.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Cam Ward is.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Being placed with a bunch of bus because his numbers
are just really bad right now. But yeah, you layer
on the situation which have been horrible and you can
at least excuse some of this play. My problem with
this kind of thing is that, generally speaking, and this
isn't full proof, but generally speaking, we learn more than
we realize about a player after that player's rookie season.
(11:33):
There are always going to be exceptions to that rule.
At every position. But we're just talking about odds here,
and the odds that cam Ward becomes some stud in
fantasy football. They're not great objectively, I think we can
all agree on that. So what I really try to
do in these situations is not allow these excuses, which
are genuine excuses he has not been in a good situation,
(11:55):
but the excuses of supporting cast, of coaching, of situation.
I try to not let those overshadow absolutely everything. If
you want a really big breakdown of my thinking and
philosophy on that, you can go back and listen to
episode nine hundred and ninety, which is titled The Gray
Area of Fantasy Football. That's the now infamous episode where
(12:16):
I talked about trading Roma Dunesay essentially for Mecha Buca
back in May, because I was trying to look at
the range of outcomes for a Donsay and I didn't
simply want to give him all the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Like you can almost think of it this way, think
of a scale of zero to one hundred.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
One hundred of mean that you're dismissing all rookie season
production because of situation, because of environment. Zero means that
you're dismissing none of it. You don't think circumstance matters
at all. You don't want to be on either end
of that range. You want to look at it like
a slider. You'll get all the individual things, how they
(12:51):
were as prospects, what kind of teammates and support they
had on the field, what kind of coaching they had,
whether they had injuries, and you want to slide that
closer and clo closer to the right number. There's no
obvious formula for that. That's what makes fantasy football so awesome.
We can use numbers, but we use numbers to guide
(13:11):
us in the right direction, not to just give us
every single answer.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
That's why this game is so awesome.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
But this little example is just help you visualize how
this isn't some black and white thing. And I do
think Episode nine to ninety walks through that process in
more detail than I can today. But then on top
of all that is the cost. And that's really what
this comes down to. One of the issues that I
have with quarterbacks in Dynasty and we'll just talk superflex
(13:38):
here because they just don't matter nearly as much in
a single quarterback league, but historically speaking, quarterbacks have maintained
market value pretty well year over year in dynasty, like
from year one to year two. Like if you just
go look at keep trade cut right now and you
look at cam Ward's dynasty value, he was QB seventeen
over the summer. He peaked at QB fourteen, but he
(14:00):
was mostly QB seventeen even a couple of weeks into
the season. You know where he's at right now. He's
a QB twenty one, which, sure that's not unfair, but
he's literally had one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons
statistically that we've seen in recent memory, and he's only
lost four quarterback spots in value depending on the timeframe
that you're looking at. I did an episode on this
(14:22):
a while back, but this is not an uncommon thing
that we see at the quarterback position. Managers are really
patient with quarterbacks. I mean they were patient with Kenny Pickett.
He barely lost any value from his rookie season to
a second season.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
And it wouldn't shock me at all.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
That if in May and June we get a little
bit of that cam Ward hype train going and his
value goes even further north, it gets even better. So
from that perspective, I do think you're gonna be better
off selling this kind of player than buying him. That
doesn't mean that I'm like a cam Moard hater or
that I think there's a zero percent chance that he
becomes something fantasy football so it is not real football.
(15:01):
We can make moves all the time and capitalize to
make our rosters better, and I'd much rather sell early
than late with an asset like this because if he
does go the direction that most quarterbacks with his numbers go,
regardless of situation. If he goes in that direction, he's
gonna look a lot worse in the dynasty market this
(15:22):
time next year. At the end of the day, this
is all a probability driven game. We're playing the odds.
Nothing in fantasy football is certain, but if you play
the odds correctly, you're gonna win out in the long run.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are but shooting for
(15:42):
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow
me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Seriously, guys,
thank you so much for putting up with my voice
this week. I greatly appreciate it. It's just as annoying
for me as it is for you. I promise you.
Later today you're gonna hear a late Round Perspective episode,
and then the Round Fantasy Football show will be live
at one pm Eastern, and then obviously that'll drop in
(16:05):
the feed tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Appreciate all of you, guys. Good luck in Week fourteen.
This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha
j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson
in this episode ten to sixty five of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Well, little uh, my voice is
(00:22):
still jacked up, so I'm gonna save it as much
as I can for these mailback questions. I mean, I
even had my son do the Thanks for tuning in,
so let's get right to it.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from David.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
It says, is there a standard approach to limiting waiver
wires slash free agent activity for teams that are not
in competition for a league championship? In our league, we
have a mildly embarrassing reward for the team that comes
in last place, So technically everyone still has something to
play for even if they're not in the championship bracket.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Thoughts.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
So I talk about this each year, but I got
this question a few times this week, so let's just
talk talk about it again so that we're all on
the same page. I also think it's an interesting discussion.
I think the common take for this from fantasy analysts
is to say that only teams in the actual playoffs
should be able to make moves off the waiver wire.
And while I understand that stance, here's the counterpoint to that,
(01:17):
why should playoff teams have an easier time getting.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Players off the waiver wire? To me, the best team
should win the Fantasy Championship.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
I know we play these single elimination tournaments and it's
not always going to be that way.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
That's fine.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
It's the same deal in the actual NFL, but I
at least want those single elimination tournaments to be fair,
and to me, the best teams they're the ones who
are most prepared for that stretch run. It's the teams
who have the best rosters going in, not the ones
who luck into a couple of running back injuries and
get the handcuffs off the waiver wire going into Week seventeen. Now.
(01:51):
I know the other side of this argument is that
the team should just plan ahead, stash all the handcuffs,
make sure you're blocking your opponents, and that's all fair.
I'm just saying as a counterpoint that I don't think
this is as black and white as people make it seem.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I see both sides.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Of the argument, and that's especially true if the non
playoff teams are playing for something like if there's a
punishment involved, Yeah, I would want to be adding players
off the waiver wire. If I was playing for last place.
How is that any different than the championship bracket. You're
still playing for something. Generally, if my teams are out
of the playoffs and there's nothing on the line, I'm
(02:30):
not adding players to my teams. There's no reason to.
It's kind of freeing knowing that there's one fewer league
that I have to deal with, if I'm being honest,
and that's probably the way that most leagues should act.
If you're not playing for anything, then don't add anyone.
If you are, then you should be able to add
during the regular waivers. Now, if you're in a situation
where maybe people are playing for something small, don't allow
(02:54):
them to add players during the waiver period, but allow
them to get guys in free agency once that period ends.
But I did want to introduce the Devil's Advocate to
all of that, because I think there's something to be
said about having an easier time getting the hot waiver
ad for that week, and it's not talked about enough.
It's at least something to think about this be'st question
(03:15):
from Jeff h It says, what do we do with
Lamar Jackson? His potential upside is still leading to consistently
high weekly rankings, but he just doesn't look right for
teams that have managed to make the playoffs or are
on the cusp. Despite rostering Lamar, where do we go
from here? I'm legitimately considering benching him for Jacoby Brissett
for the rest.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Of the season.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So one thing I'll say, and maybe this isn't relevant,
I don't know, but I'll often get questions like this
where it's like, should I play this fringe player rest
of season? And my answer is, why give yourself that
problem to answer right now?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Fantasy football is a weekly game. Take it week by week.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I have no issue if you're worried about Lamar Jackson
and you'd rather just use Jacoby Brissett this week, even
in a tougher matchup, because he's been giving us really
good fantasy production. But what if Lamar Jackson blows up
this week against Pittsburgh, You're just gonna start toa Kobe
Brissette rest of season because you said you would in
Week fourteen. If the questions about dropping Lamar Jackson. I
(04:16):
would not do that, but I agree with you he's
not totally looking right. But Jackson could have had a
much much better outing last week in Fantasy if not
for a couple of things happening, like the Isaiah Likely
fumble or the pass interference call that doesn't always get
called on Zay Flowers. What was good to see was
that Lamar Jackson had two design rush attempts after having
(04:38):
just one and the two prior games combined, and he
was scrambling a little bit more too. The problem is
that Pittsburgh has historically played him pretty well, so I
think this week there's just a ton of volatility. You
have to ask yourself if you can handle that and
if your team needs that. But I can tell you
that I would not be dropping Lamar Jackson right now,
(05:00):
even if he still hasn't looked one hundred percent himself
and they get the Bengals and the Patriots in weeks
fifteen and sixteen. You wouldn't be very happy if someone
else had Lamar Jackson in your fantasy playoff because you
dropped him, and then Lamar Jackson just goes off because
those are two very good matchups. So if you want
to bench him this week, if you want to wait
and see, I totally get that logic. I understand, but
(05:24):
there's no chance that right now I would be dropping
Lamar Jackson. This best question is from Twitter. It's from
at TLW Travis. It says, in the playoffs and with benchroom,
what's your stance on having more than one quarterback and
tight end? I currently have three quarterbacks and two tight ends.
My wide receivers and running backs are strong. Tempted to
(05:46):
drop someone like Rodriguez to add Fannin and play matchups
with my tight ends. Free agents are bad. So I've
heard different iterations to this over the last couple of weeks,
and I think it just needs to be said. Guys,
you gotta do what you got to do during this
time of year with your bench. In the early parts
of the season, you want more running back and wide
receiver flyers. That slowly shifts as you get closer to
(06:08):
the playoffs. You want more insurance. If you're a championship
caliber team, you want more volatility. If you're not having
multiple onesies, quarterbacks and tight ends, it's more of that insurance.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Play, even if.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
It means that you're blocking other teams. When you have
an inferior team that's barely getting into the dance, you
might want to go with more running back handcuffs of
running backs that you don't have, like get Blake Koram
if you don't have Kien Williams. I mean, you should
have Blake Korum regardless, or just get some wide receivers
with upside, because those positions are objectively more important in
(06:44):
fantasy football. But if you feel good about those important positions,
then you need to do what you got to do
at quarterback and tight end. I have multiple quarterbacks and
tight ends and tons of my leagues. Rostering a lot
of them not only gives you flexibility for that three
week playoff run, but it can also block your opponents
from streaming.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So do as you wish. It's no big deal this
time of year.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
This best question is also from Twitter's from at who
Dat's Say nine, It says, what does the playoff outlook
for Jacoby Myers Parker Washington's injured had twenty percent of
slot snaps last week and ninety four percent routeshare twenty
six percent target share. Seems like a ridiculously solid flex
play at worst moving forward, yeah, I agree. The more
(07:30):
I've dug into Jacoby Myers' profile and what he's done
over the last few weeks, the more I like him.
I talked about this on The Sleeper Show, but Myers
has seen target shares of twenty seven percent, twenty percent,
and twenty four percent over his last three games. He's
seen eleven fifteen to twenty one PPR points, and over
the last two weeks, he's had routshares of ninety one
percent and ninety four percent. According to Fantasy Points data,
(07:54):
Myers is a twenty eight percent first read target share
over his last three games. That's basically a top twenty
number on wide receiver across the league during that timeframe,
and during those three weeks, only five wide receivers have
more end zone targets. Now, Jacksonville does get Denver in
Week sixteen, so Myers is going to be tougher to
play in that matchup, and we'll see where Sauce Gardner
(08:15):
is at when they face off in week seventeen. But
at the very least, it's hard to not like him
over the next two weeks against the Colts and the Jets,
especially with his Parker Washington injury. Myers feels pretty underrated
right now. The last question this week is from robot
Randy on Bluesky. It says, should cammore Dynasty managers be
(08:37):
terrified or can we comfortably blame the dog you know
what ecosystem. So there are two levels to looking at
something like this. One is the first, analyze the player
and assess a proper hit rate to that player's profile.
I mean you don't need an actual number. I just
mean look at history, look at what the player's working with,
maybe find some comps and see what the odds are
(08:58):
that he's going to actually pan out into some super
usable fantasy asset. And then there's the cost element. A
lot of times I'll still invest in draft players who
I don't even love because the market doesn't love them either.
Like I didn't think Kyle Manungai was that great of
a prospect. I still doubt he becomes like a true
belcal back, but he's definitely been really good, don't get
me wrong. But I still drafted him in both Dynasty
(09:21):
and Reed draft leagues in Best Ball leagues because the
cost was nothing, and there were situational factors that were
really working in his favor, like the system that he
was in in the backfield competition that he had. So
let's look at that first piece first. What has cam
Wored done and have other quarterbacks in a similar boat
taken the leap in future years. Let's just look simply
(09:43):
at fantasy points per game wards averaging nine point seven
standard fantasy points per game right now, which is not great.
We've had forty nine rookie quarterbacks play eight or more
games since twenty eleven while also hitting two hundred pass attempts. Now,
looking at just points per game with those guys isn't
super helpful because a lot of them played in games
but didn't start, like Lamar Jackson, for example. So I
(10:04):
looked at those forty nine quarterbacks and found their points
per game averages and games where they had fifteen or
more pass attempts during their rookie season. There were four
quarterbacks who were under the ten points per game mark,
Bryce Young, Dwayne Haskins, rest In Peace, Josh Rosen, and
Blaine Gabbert. When you changed that filter to twelve points
per game, you add Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Kaiser, Mitch Trubisky,
(10:29):
Derek Carr, Austin Davis, and Brandon Weeden. Right now, cam
Mood has an adjusted net yards per attemporary of four
point zero among rookie quarterbacks since twenty eleven with two
hundred pass attempts. So this ignores games played, So our
samples a little bit bigger. Only Zach Wilson, Blake Bortles,
Deshaun Kaiser, Bryce Young, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Rosen, and Jared
(10:51):
Goff were worse.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Right above Ward in.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
That statistic, it is Spencer Ratler, Gino Smith, Justin Fields,
Christian Ponder, and then Dwayne Haskins, and then after that
you finally get Josh Allen like a big hit. Now,
I could do this for days, no matter how you
slice it, no matter the metric you're looking at.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Cam Ward is.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Being placed with a bunch of bus because his numbers
are just really bad right now. But yeah, you layer
on the situation which have been horrible and you can
at least excuse some of this play. My problem with
this kind of thing is that, generally speaking, and this
isn't full proof, but generally speaking, we learn more than
we realize about a player after that player's rookie season.
(11:33):
There are always going to be exceptions to that rule.
At every position. But we're just talking about odds here,
and the odds that cam Ward becomes some stud in
fantasy football. They're not great objectively, I think we can
all agree on that. So what I really try to
do in these situations is not allow these excuses, which
are genuine excuses he has not been in a good situation,
(11:55):
but the excuses of supporting cast, of coaching, of situation.
I try to not let those overshadow absolutely everything. If
you want a really big breakdown of my thinking and
philosophy on that, you can go back and listen to
episode nine hundred and ninety, which is titled The Gray
Area of Fantasy Football. That's the now infamous episode where
(12:16):
I talked about trading Roma Dunesay essentially for Mecha Buca
back in May, because I was trying to look at
the range of outcomes for a Donsay and I didn't
simply want to give him all the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Like you can almost think of it this way, think
of a scale of zero to one hundred.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
One hundred of mean that you're dismissing all rookie season
production because of situation, because of environment. Zero means that
you're dismissing none of it. You don't think circumstance matters
at all. You don't want to be on either end
of that range. You want to look at it like
a slider. You'll get all the individual things, how they
(12:51):
were as prospects, what kind of teammates and support they
had on the field, what kind of coaching they had,
whether they had injuries, and you want to slide that
closer and clo closer to the right number. There's no
obvious formula for that. That's what makes fantasy football so awesome.
We can use numbers, but we use numbers to guide
(13:11):
us in the right direction, not to just give us
every single answer.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
That's why this game is so awesome.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
But this little example is just help you visualize how
this isn't some black and white thing. And I do
think Episode nine to ninety walks through that process in
more detail than I can today. But then on top
of all that is the cost. And that's really what
this comes down to. One of the issues that I
have with quarterbacks in Dynasty and we'll just talk superflex
(13:38):
here because they just don't matter nearly as much in
a single quarterback league, but historically speaking, quarterbacks have maintained
market value pretty well year over year in dynasty, like
from year one to year two. Like if you just
go look at keep trade cut right now and you
look at cam Ward's dynasty value, he was QB seventeen
over the summer. He peaked at QB fourteen, but he
(14:00):
was mostly QB seventeen even a couple of weeks into
the season. You know where he's at right now. He's
a QB twenty one, which, sure that's not unfair, but
he's literally had one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons
statistically that we've seen in recent memory, and he's only
lost four quarterback spots in value depending on the timeframe
that you're looking at. I did an episode on this
(14:22):
a while back, but this is not an uncommon thing
that we see at the quarterback position. Managers are really
patient with quarterbacks. I mean they were patient with Kenny Pickett.
He barely lost any value from his rookie season to
a second season.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
And it wouldn't shock me at all.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
That if in May and June we get a little
bit of that cam Ward hype train going and his
value goes even further north, it gets even better. So
from that perspective, I do think you're gonna be better
off selling this kind of player than buying him. That
doesn't mean that I'm like a cam Moard hater or
that I think there's a zero percent chance that he
becomes something fantasy football so it is not real football.
(15:01):
We can make moves all the time and capitalize to
make our rosters better, and I'd much rather sell early
than late with an asset like this because if he
does go the direction that most quarterbacks with his numbers go,
regardless of situation. If he goes in that direction, he's
gonna look a lot worse in the dynasty market this
(15:22):
time next year. At the end of the day, this
is all a probability driven game. We're playing the odds.
Nothing in fantasy football is certain, but if you play
the odds correctly, you're gonna win out in the long run.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
you for listening. If you had subscribed to Late Round
Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are but shooting for
(15:42):
it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow
me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Seriously, guys,
thank you so much for putting up with my voice
this week. I greatly appreciate it. It's just as annoying
for me as it is for you. I promise you.
Later today you're gonna hear a late Round Perspective episode,
and then the Round Fantasy Football show will be live
at one pm Eastern, and then obviously that'll drop in
(16:05):
the feed tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Appreciate all of you, guys. Good luck in Week fourteen.
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