December 11, 2025 • 16 mins
JJ talks about some pass-catching running backs, a handful of tight end streamers, and more on this week's sleepers episode.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher
Resi JJ zacher reveson What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar
Eson in this episode ten sixty eight of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning. In Week fourteen
sleeper show, it wasn't the best. There were some hits
(00:23):
in there, like Christian Watson, Tyler Shuck, Blake Korum, and
Harold Fannon. Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold they were both usable.
Jacobe Myers got it done, Devin Neil did two, and
Kolby Parkinson and Dalton kin Kaid both on the end zone.
But the Broncos receivers weren't anything special. Chris Rodriguez was
pretty mid ad and I Mitchell and Tyrod Taylor busted
though Tyrod was hurt, and the defensive streamers were pretty
(00:45):
bad last week outside of Miami, Miami was great. Now
that it's the playoffs, more's at stake, so hopefully I
can get you more w's than l's this week. With
that being said, let's get the Week fifteen. This first
tier players consisted guys rostered in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo League, so they're shallower sleepers. Brock Purdy is
still under that eighty percent mark, and I'm not entirely
(01:08):
sure as to why. I'd imagine this dude was by
week last week and he hasn't been like amazing and
fantasy football, but he's not a bad play this week.
The forty nine Ers have a twenty eight and a
half point IMPLY team total against Tennessee. That's the second
highest in this week slate. You might be worried about
the forty nine Ers not having to throw the ball
as much. That's fair. Teams against Tennessee tend to see
their pass ray drop by two and a half percent
(01:29):
this year, but the Titans are still the twelfth best
matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. And as I
always say, in order to get the garbage time, in
order to get that lead, the quarterback is likely going
to play a role. That high of a team total
makes brock Purdy a relevant starter. Jackson Darts another one
in this tear. Now I will say I'm a little
bit concerned about darts mobility. He didn't have a single
(01:51):
design rush attempt the last time we saw the Giants.
That was the first time that had happened all year.
As starter, and we all know why. It probably happened
his concussion, but the Giants do get the Commanders this
week in Washington has been the third best matchup for
quarterbacks this year by justin fantasy points allowed. New York
also has a healthy twenty four and a half point
ply team total, so I think Jackson Dart is fine,
(02:13):
and then Trevor Lawrence is the last one in this year.
The Jags also have a good implied team total at
twenty six and a half points against the Jets, and
New York has been averaged to above average opponent this
year for quarterbacks. Now they have been better of late,
but half of the quarterbacks that they've faced since Sas
Gardner was traded, they've posted top ten numbers. Just given
the team total and given the trend that I talked
(02:33):
about on this week's ten Trends episode about Trevor Lawrence
and how well he's played since September, I think he's
fine at running back. Woody Marx is still at the
eighty percent mark at the time of this recording. I
love him. This week, the Texans are favorites against the Cardinals.
They have a twenty six point ply team total Arizona
is the sixth best matchup for running backs by justin
points allowed this year, and they're coming off a game
(02:55):
where both Blake Krum and Kyrone Williams were top ten
options the week. Bucky Irving RB fifteen. The week before that,
Traves etn RB seven. The week before that, Christian McCaffrey
was the RB one. Those are a lot of good
running backs, don't get me wrong, and Woody Marks isn't
in that kind of tier, but each back still played
above expected. With Nick Chubb banged up, Marx could see
(03:18):
a lot of work. He had a ninety three percent
running back rush are last week. If he comes close
to that against Arizona, he should have a nice day. Chupa.
Hubbard had a forty nine percent running back rush here
the last time we saw Carolina. He was the better
back between himself and Rico O. Daudle. That was pre buy.
It was his highest share since Week eight. Now we
(03:39):
probably are gonna see a split backfield again here in
week fifteen, but Carolina is in a spot where both
running backs are in play. They get the Saints and
teams against New Orleans have seen their biggest decline in
pass rate over expected compared to any other team in football.
Team pass rates usually dropped by seven percentage points when
they faced New Orleans. And this is a team, the Panthers,
(04:00):
that have the second lowest pass rate over expected in
the entire NFL. So I'm expecting a lot of running
from the Panthers this week that should benefit Chuba Hubbard
and Rico Dudele, But he's not sleeper eligible in that
same game as Devin Neil. Neil's been getting it done
without Alvin Kamara in the mix. He's had a running
back rush share of seventy percent, seventy four percent, and
eighty three percent over his last three games. He's averaging
(04:23):
a respectable twelve point one PPERO points per game in
those contests. Now, the Saints get a Panthers team that
ranks the top half opponent for running backs by justin
points allowed, So I think Neil is an okay play.
And then lastly is Kyle Mnungai. Now I know this
one might sound a little bit weird because Cleveland's a
bottom ten matchup for running backs this year by Essein
fantasy points allowed, but the Browns have not been great
(04:45):
at stopping running backs of late Tony Pollard last week
RB two, the week before we had CMC is a
top twelve option ashing genty in week twelve RB four,
Derrick Henry the RB eight right before that, and then
in week ten. This is all since they're b In
week ten, Bryce Hall was the RB seven. The Bears
are favorites. And when young guy's been over the fifty
(05:06):
percent running back rush sare marking three straight games, I
don't think he's a terrible play at all. Wandell Robinson
is still at eighty percent rostered and I love him
this week against Washington. Washington's allowed the tenth most adjusted
Fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and Robinson hasn't
seen lower than a thirty one percent target share in
each of his last five games. But also with Darius
(05:28):
Slayton back and playing a full route share in Week thirteen,
Robinson went back to playing over seventy five percent of
his snaps out of the slot. That's big because Washington's
given up top five numbers of slot receivers this year.
They've allowed over four more PPR points per game to
team slot receivers compared to the average team. Again, that's
big for Wandell Robinson. There hasn't been much reason to
(05:49):
be excited about Jordan Natison this year given the state
of the Vikings offense, but if there's any week that
he could be relevant, it's this one. The Vikings get
the Cowboys and Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points
the perimeter wide receivers this year. It's the best matchup
on paper for Jordan Addison, who runs frequently on the outside.
He's also coming off of two games where you saw
(06:09):
target shares of thirty four and a half percent and
thirty percent, So I think this is a very interesting
play at tight end in this tier. We got to
go to Harold Fannin just because he's been crushing. Like
I said earlier this week, no tight end is a
higher target shaer than Fannin does over the last few weeks.
Those are his games with Shador Sanders under center in Cleveland.
This week they get a reasonable match up against Chicago.
(06:32):
The Bears are the thirteenth best matchup on paper for
tight ends by justin points allowed. And then the final
player in this tier is Juwan Johnson Carolina. His opponent
ranks as the twelfth best matchup by adjustin points allowed,
and Johnson has seen targetshers of twenty seven percent and
twenty two percent over his last two games. I think
there may be better streamers in the next tier, but
Johnson should give you a good floor. Speaking of this
(06:57):
next tier, we're looking at the rest of the players.
Anyone rostered in more than fifty percent of Yahoo leaks.
I switched things up last week. We'll be looking at
sleepers this way through the end of the year, which
is just next week, because there actually won't be a
sleeper show in week seventeen. Anyway, Let's start a quarterback.
Let's go to C. J. Stroud. We haven't gotten a
ton of usability out of Stroud this year. I do
(07:17):
think there's at least some concern with him this week
because of that. But the Texans, like I said earlier
with Woody Marks, they have a healthy implied team total
and Arizona they're just an average matchup for quarterbacks by
justin points allowed. So I think Stroud can at least
give you solid QB two numbers this week. If you
want to get a little weirder, though, you could go
with JJ McCarthy. I of course hesitate to say that
(07:38):
because of how well he's played this year or not
well he's played. But it's Dallas. It's freaking Dallas. The
Cowboys are the best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed.
The only starter to score fewer than sixteen standard Fantasy
points against Dallas is Gino Smith. He's still put up thirteen.
McCarthy's coming off his best game of the year by
EPA per dropback, so maybe that'll spill into Week fifteen.
(08:01):
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, they threw more than usual
given game circumstance in Week fourteen. That's hopefully a good
sign in the start of a trend, as I mentioned
on the ten Trends episode yesterday, and this week they
get a Dolphins team that's been an above average opponent
for quarterbacks this year. They were fine against the Jets
last week because Tyrod Taylor was hurt early, but prior
to that game, you're looking at a QB twelve performance
(08:22):
from Tyler Shuck, QB eleven from Marcus Mariota, QB ten
from Josh Allen, and QB nine from Lamar Jackson. Miami's
actually been pretty good against the run recently too, so
it may force Pittsburgh to be a little bit more
aggressive than usual through the air. And then I also
like Marcus Mariota this week. He's had a QB one
performance in each of his last three starts, and Washington
(08:44):
gets a New York team this week that's allowed the
fourth most adjusted Fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. So
I do like Mariota quite a bit. Speaking of the Commanders,
I think Chris Rodriguez is actually in a good spot
this week. The Giants are the second best matchup for
running backs by justin points allowed, and this game could
be closer, meaning the Commanders could keep things ground heavy
and ground friendlier for Rodriguez. It doesn't mean I don't
(09:07):
like Mariota. I think the Commanders could score points. All
I'm saying is that this is a game script that
could favor Chris Rodriguez potential game script because he's not
their negative game script back. But Rodriguez is getting double
digit carries. He's done so in three straight games. This
is one of those spots where things could come together
for him. And then another player from that game is
(09:28):
Devin Singletary. The last time we saw the Giants, Singletary
became their lead back because of a Tyrone Tracy injury.
It does sound like Tyrone Tracy is okay, but I
probably still prefer Singletary this week, just because Tracy's coming
off of that injury. Tracy's also been the guy running
more routes and being more of the pass catcher for
that backfield. But this is a game, like I just said,
(09:48):
where they could stick to the run. Given their currently favorites,
this game could be close, is basically what I'm saying.
And Washington, they've been a top ten opponent for running
backs by justin points allowed. Look, you can use Tyrone
Tracy as a flex option two. I just think this
sets up just slightly better for Devin Singletary. But as
we know, this is going to come down to a
coaching decision. Fantasy managers are understandably going to gravitate towards
(10:12):
Tony Pollard after what he did last week, but I'm
here to tell you to not forget about Taj Spears
this week. The Titans are really big underdogs against the
forty nine ers, and in those situations, we typically see
more Tajy Spears than Tony Pollard. According to Fantasy Life data,
Spears has played seventy five percent of the two minutes
snap Since Week five, Pollard has been at twenty five percent.
(10:35):
Spears has seen eighty percent of the team's long down
and distant snaps during that time. That could be big
this week in San Francisco. They not only are just
average as an opponent by justin fantasy points allowed to
running backs, but they're the number one team in the
league and adjusted target share allowed to the position. Spears,
the pass catching back, could take advantage, and then another
(10:56):
player who may be able to see more passing game
work is Dylan Sampson. Jerome Ford is now on IR
and he sort of obnoxiously had a thirty three percent
route share this season. He's also seen eight percent of
the team's targets. Ford's also played over seventy percent of
Cleveland's long down in distant snaps with Quinn Shawn Judkins
active this year, and that rate's been sixty five percent
(11:16):
in the two minute offense. That work could go to
Dylan Sampson. He's played about twice as much as Quinnhawn
Judkins in those scenarios, and the Browns are decent underdogs
against the Bears this week, so there's a chance that
we see Sampson get some action. Let's move on to
wide receivers. It's actually a pretty tough week to find
good wide receiver sleepers, but I've got a few for you.
(11:38):
The first one's Luther Burden. The matchup against Cleveland. It's
not anything special. They've been a fringe bottom ten team
for wide receivers by justin points allowed this year, but
without rom of Doon's day, we saw more work for
Luther Burden in that offense. Last week, he had his
highest route share of the season at sixty nine percent.
That led to his highest target share at twenty one percent.
(11:59):
This is just a talent and general opportunity thing. He
should be able to walk into five to seven targets
and with his yards after the catchability, there could be
something there. Someone who does have a pretty specific matchup
to exploit this week is Chim Ray DK. He's been
Tennessee's primary slot guy. He's also been getting round shares
close to ninety percent each week, and he's coming off
(12:19):
a game he had a thirty two percent target chair
last week. But DK gets San Francisco. The forty nine
ers have allowed the most fantasy points of slot wide
receivers this year. If that negative game script hits and
the Titans start throwing a lot, I could see DK
walking away with a lot of volume and hopefully fantasy points.
And then I have two more call outs to make
(12:40):
that are injury related. The first one I'm assuming that
t Higgins is going to be out this week, although
that's not official. That makes Mitchell Tinsley and andre Josi
Bash reasonable sleepers. The last time we saw this Bengals
team against the Ravens, it was Tinsley who hit a
twenty and a half percent target chair. He saw nine targets.
He just got two of them for only twenty two yards.
(13:00):
But the volume was there. The problem is that the
routeshare wasn't. It was just sixty two percent. And that's
why I think Yosi Bosh is still the safer bed.
He had a ninety six percent routehare against Baltimore, which
is going to be more stable from a projection standpoint.
But both of them, and what could be a higher
scoring game, both of them could work. Baltimore's allowed the
fifth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and
(13:22):
then the other player here is Ryan Flanoy. This is
only if ced Lamb is out, but Flanoy should step
in as Dallas's number two wide receiver if Lamb is out.
He saw an impressive twenty eight percent target shair last week. Now,
last week's game it was against Detroit. That's a much
better matchup than the Minnesota matchup they have this week.
But as I talked about in the ten Trends episode,
(13:43):
Dallas has been through these tougher matchups all year and
they've still seen production. Their twenty seven point implied team
total that helps things too. Now at tight end, let's
start with Dalton Schultz. The Cardinals seem to always be
bad against tight ends, this year really no different. They've
the eighth most adjusted points to the position and the
sixth highest adjusted target shair to the position. Schultz is
(14:05):
an incredibly, incredibly boring play, but in PPR formats he
can get it done. He said, double digit PPR points
and six of his last nine, and his route share
has consistently been over that eighty percent mark. Theo Johnson's
another one. He's been a staple for me this year
and it's no different this week against the second best
matchup for tight ends by adjusted points allowed. He's coming
(14:26):
off his six point performance against New England, so nothing special,
but he did hit a thirty three percent target share
in that game with Jackson dartback. He's typically been in
the high teens, low twenties and target share with Jackson
Dart so you have to like him in the spot
this week. Darren Waller didn't get a ton of run
last week. He had a fifty nine percent route chair,
(14:46):
but he had a respectable fourteen percent target chair. He's
been in a fifteen percent and fourteen percent target chair
over his last two games. This week, the Dolphins get
the Steelers and there's at least more of a chance
for a negative game script against them than there was
against the Jets last week. Without time Rod Taylor. That
means more passing and more of a reliance on someone
like Darren Waller. Pittsburgh's been the fifth best matchup for
(15:06):
tight ends this year by justin points allowed too, so
I'm cool with Waller. If that negative game script hits,
I'd imagine his route share it's gonna increase week over week.
I'll keep this one quick because I talked about him
on the fifteen Transaction Show, But Isaiah likely he gets
the Bengals in end this week. Cincinnati has been historically
bad against tight ends this year, and likely he's seeing
(15:27):
about a seventeen percent target share in this Ravens offense
since Lamar Jackson came back, and he's been outperforming Mark
Andrews over their last few games. So I don't mind
Isaiah likely at all in this spot. And then I
also want to shout out Pat Fryarmouth Darnell Washington's in
concussion protocol. That's actually a huge deal for Friarmuth. Washington
(15:47):
has about a forty percent route share this year. Friarmuth
last week saw solid enough sixty three percent route participation rate.
I'd imagine that's going to be higher if Washington is
sidelined in Miami their opponent. They've been the third best
man for tight ends this year by justin fantasy points allowed.
Now with defenses this week, I did like Jacksonville, but
they're rostered in too many leagues now. So some deeper plays,
(16:10):
some sub fifty percent plays. You've got San Francisco against Tennessee,
you got Chicago against Cleveland, and maybe even Dallas against Minnesota.
All three of them should work, with Dallas being more
of that deeper play. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are retwartching Forred pretty much anywhere podcast can be found,
(16:31):
and don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly
Mailbag episode.
This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher
Resi JJ zacher reveson What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar
Eson in this episode ten sixty eight of the Late
Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning. In Week fourteen
sleeper show, it wasn't the best. There were some hits
(00:23):
in there, like Christian Watson, Tyler Shuck, Blake Korum, and
Harold Fannon. Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold they were both usable.
Jacobe Myers got it done, Devin Neil did two, and
Kolby Parkinson and Dalton kin Kaid both on the end zone.
But the Broncos receivers weren't anything special. Chris Rodriguez was
pretty mid ad and I Mitchell and Tyrod Taylor busted
though Tyrod was hurt, and the defensive streamers were pretty
(00:45):
bad last week outside of Miami, Miami was great. Now
that it's the playoffs, more's at stake, so hopefully I
can get you more w's than l's this week. With
that being said, let's get the Week fifteen. This first
tier players consisted guys rostered in fifty to eighty percent
of Yahoo League, so they're shallower sleepers. Brock Purdy is
still under that eighty percent mark, and I'm not entirely
(01:08):
sure as to why. I'd imagine this dude was by
week last week and he hasn't been like amazing and
fantasy football, but he's not a bad play this week.
The forty nine Ers have a twenty eight and a
half point IMPLY team total against Tennessee. That's the second
highest in this week slate. You might be worried about
the forty nine Ers not having to throw the ball
as much. That's fair. Teams against Tennessee tend to see
their pass ray drop by two and a half percent
(01:29):
this year, but the Titans are still the twelfth best
matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. And as I
always say, in order to get the garbage time, in
order to get that lead, the quarterback is likely going
to play a role. That high of a team total
makes brock Purdy a relevant starter. Jackson Darts another one
in this tear. Now I will say I'm a little
bit concerned about darts mobility. He didn't have a single
(01:51):
design rush attempt the last time we saw the Giants.
That was the first time that had happened all year.
As starter, and we all know why. It probably happened
his concussion, but the Giants do get the Commanders this
week in Washington has been the third best matchup for
quarterbacks this year by justin fantasy points allowed. New York
also has a healthy twenty four and a half point
ply team total, so I think Jackson Dart is fine,
(02:13):
and then Trevor Lawrence is the last one in this year.
The Jags also have a good implied team total at
twenty six and a half points against the Jets, and
New York has been averaged to above average opponent this
year for quarterbacks. Now they have been better of late,
but half of the quarterbacks that they've faced since Sas
Gardner was traded, they've posted top ten numbers. Just given
the team total and given the trend that I talked
(02:33):
about on this week's ten Trends episode about Trevor Lawrence
and how well he's played since September, I think he's
fine at running back. Woody Marx is still at the
eighty percent mark at the time of this recording. I
love him. This week, the Texans are favorites against the Cardinals.
They have a twenty six point ply team total Arizona
is the sixth best matchup for running backs by justin
points allowed this year, and they're coming off a game
(02:55):
where both Blake Krum and Kyrone Williams were top ten
options the week. Bucky Irving RB fifteen. The week before that,
Traves etn RB seven. The week before that, Christian McCaffrey
was the RB one. Those are a lot of good
running backs, don't get me wrong, and Woody Marks isn't
in that kind of tier, but each back still played
above expected. With Nick Chubb banged up, Marx could see
(03:18):
a lot of work. He had a ninety three percent
running back rush are last week. If he comes close
to that against Arizona, he should have a nice day. Chupa.
Hubbard had a forty nine percent running back rush here
the last time we saw Carolina. He was the better
back between himself and Rico O. Daudle. That was pre buy.
It was his highest share since Week eight. Now we
(03:39):
probably are gonna see a split backfield again here in
week fifteen, but Carolina is in a spot where both
running backs are in play. They get the Saints and
teams against New Orleans have seen their biggest decline in
pass rate over expected compared to any other team in football.
Team pass rates usually dropped by seven percentage points when
they faced New Orleans. And this is a team, the Panthers,
(04:00):
that have the second lowest pass rate over expected in
the entire NFL. So I'm expecting a lot of running
from the Panthers this week that should benefit Chuba Hubbard
and Rico Dudele, But he's not sleeper eligible in that
same game as Devin Neil. Neil's been getting it done
without Alvin Kamara in the mix. He's had a running
back rush share of seventy percent, seventy four percent, and
eighty three percent over his last three games. He's averaging
(04:23):
a respectable twelve point one PPERO points per game in
those contests. Now, the Saints get a Panthers team that
ranks the top half opponent for running backs by justin
points allowed, So I think Neil is an okay play.
And then lastly is Kyle Mnungai. Now I know this
one might sound a little bit weird because Cleveland's a
bottom ten matchup for running backs this year by Essein
fantasy points allowed, but the Browns have not been great
(04:45):
at stopping running backs of late Tony Pollard last week
RB two, the week before we had CMC is a
top twelve option ashing genty in week twelve RB four,
Derrick Henry the RB eight right before that, and then
in week ten. This is all since they're b In
week ten, Bryce Hall was the RB seven. The Bears
are favorites. And when young guy's been over the fifty
(05:06):
percent running back rush sare marking three straight games, I
don't think he's a terrible play at all. Wandell Robinson
is still at eighty percent rostered and I love him
this week against Washington. Washington's allowed the tenth most adjusted
Fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and Robinson hasn't
seen lower than a thirty one percent target share in
each of his last five games. But also with Darius
(05:28):
Slayton back and playing a full route share in Week thirteen,
Robinson went back to playing over seventy five percent of
his snaps out of the slot. That's big because Washington's
given up top five numbers of slot receivers this year.
They've allowed over four more PPR points per game to
team slot receivers compared to the average team. Again, that's
big for Wandell Robinson. There hasn't been much reason to
(05:49):
be excited about Jordan Natison this year given the state
of the Vikings offense, but if there's any week that
he could be relevant, it's this one. The Vikings get
the Cowboys and Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points
the perimeter wide receivers this year. It's the best matchup
on paper for Jordan Addison, who runs frequently on the outside.
He's also coming off of two games where you saw
(06:09):
target shares of thirty four and a half percent and
thirty percent, So I think this is a very interesting
play at tight end in this tier. We got to
go to Harold Fannin just because he's been crushing. Like
I said earlier this week, no tight end is a
higher target shaer than Fannin does over the last few weeks.
Those are his games with Shador Sanders under center in Cleveland.
This week they get a reasonable match up against Chicago.
(06:32):
The Bears are the thirteenth best matchup on paper for
tight ends by justin points allowed. And then the final
player in this tier is Juwan Johnson Carolina. His opponent
ranks as the twelfth best matchup by adjustin points allowed,
and Johnson has seen targetshers of twenty seven percent and
twenty two percent over his last two games. I think
there may be better streamers in the next tier, but
Johnson should give you a good floor. Speaking of this
(06:57):
next tier, we're looking at the rest of the players.
Anyone rostered in more than fifty percent of Yahoo leaks.
I switched things up last week. We'll be looking at
sleepers this way through the end of the year, which
is just next week, because there actually won't be a
sleeper show in week seventeen. Anyway, Let's start a quarterback.
Let's go to C. J. Stroud. We haven't gotten a
ton of usability out of Stroud this year. I do
(07:17):
think there's at least some concern with him this week
because of that. But the Texans, like I said earlier
with Woody Marks, they have a healthy implied team total
and Arizona they're just an average matchup for quarterbacks by
justin points allowed. So I think Stroud can at least
give you solid QB two numbers this week. If you
want to get a little weirder, though, you could go
with JJ McCarthy. I of course hesitate to say that
(07:38):
because of how well he's played this year or not
well he's played. But it's Dallas. It's freaking Dallas. The
Cowboys are the best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed.
The only starter to score fewer than sixteen standard Fantasy
points against Dallas is Gino Smith. He's still put up thirteen.
McCarthy's coming off his best game of the year by
EPA per dropback, so maybe that'll spill into Week fifteen.
(08:01):
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, they threw more than usual
given game circumstance in Week fourteen. That's hopefully a good
sign in the start of a trend, as I mentioned
on the ten Trends episode yesterday, and this week they
get a Dolphins team that's been an above average opponent
for quarterbacks this year. They were fine against the Jets
last week because Tyrod Taylor was hurt early, but prior
to that game, you're looking at a QB twelve performance
(08:22):
from Tyler Shuck, QB eleven from Marcus Mariota, QB ten
from Josh Allen, and QB nine from Lamar Jackson. Miami's
actually been pretty good against the run recently too, so
it may force Pittsburgh to be a little bit more
aggressive than usual through the air. And then I also
like Marcus Mariota this week. He's had a QB one
performance in each of his last three starts, and Washington
(08:44):
gets a New York team this week that's allowed the
fourth most adjusted Fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. So
I do like Mariota quite a bit. Speaking of the Commanders,
I think Chris Rodriguez is actually in a good spot
this week. The Giants are the second best matchup for
running backs by justin points allowed, and this game could
be closer, meaning the Commanders could keep things ground heavy
and ground friendlier for Rodriguez. It doesn't mean I don't
(09:07):
like Mariota. I think the Commanders could score points. All
I'm saying is that this is a game script that
could favor Chris Rodriguez potential game script because he's not
their negative game script back. But Rodriguez is getting double
digit carries. He's done so in three straight games. This
is one of those spots where things could come together
for him. And then another player from that game is
(09:28):
Devin Singletary. The last time we saw the Giants, Singletary
became their lead back because of a Tyrone Tracy injury.
It does sound like Tyrone Tracy is okay, but I
probably still prefer Singletary this week, just because Tracy's coming
off of that injury. Tracy's also been the guy running
more routes and being more of the pass catcher for
that backfield. But this is a game, like I just said,
(09:48):
where they could stick to the run. Given their currently favorites,
this game could be close, is basically what I'm saying.
And Washington, they've been a top ten opponent for running
backs by justin points allowed. Look, you can use Tyrone
Tracy as a flex option two. I just think this
sets up just slightly better for Devin Singletary. But as
we know, this is going to come down to a
coaching decision. Fantasy managers are understandably going to gravitate towards
(10:12):
Tony Pollard after what he did last week, but I'm
here to tell you to not forget about Taj Spears
this week. The Titans are really big underdogs against the
forty nine ers, and in those situations, we typically see
more Tajy Spears than Tony Pollard. According to Fantasy Life data,
Spears has played seventy five percent of the two minutes
snap Since Week five, Pollard has been at twenty five percent.
(10:35):
Spears has seen eighty percent of the team's long down
and distant snaps during that time. That could be big
this week in San Francisco. They not only are just
average as an opponent by justin fantasy points allowed to
running backs, but they're the number one team in the
league and adjusted target share allowed to the position. Spears,
the pass catching back, could take advantage, and then another
(10:56):
player who may be able to see more passing game
work is Dylan Sampson. Jerome Ford is now on IR
and he sort of obnoxiously had a thirty three percent
route share this season. He's also seen eight percent of
the team's targets. Ford's also played over seventy percent of
Cleveland's long down in distant snaps with Quinn Shawn Judkins
active this year, and that rate's been sixty five percent
(11:16):
in the two minute offense. That work could go to
Dylan Sampson. He's played about twice as much as Quinnhawn
Judkins in those scenarios, and the Browns are decent underdogs
against the Bears this week, so there's a chance that
we see Sampson get some action. Let's move on to
wide receivers. It's actually a pretty tough week to find
good wide receiver sleepers, but I've got a few for you.
(11:38):
The first one's Luther Burden. The matchup against Cleveland. It's
not anything special. They've been a fringe bottom ten team
for wide receivers by justin points allowed this year, but
without rom of Doon's day, we saw more work for
Luther Burden in that offense. Last week, he had his
highest route share of the season at sixty nine percent.
That led to his highest target share at twenty one percent.
(11:59):
This is just a talent and general opportunity thing. He
should be able to walk into five to seven targets
and with his yards after the catchability, there could be
something there. Someone who does have a pretty specific matchup
to exploit this week is Chim Ray DK. He's been
Tennessee's primary slot guy. He's also been getting round shares
close to ninety percent each week, and he's coming off
(12:19):
a game he had a thirty two percent target chair
last week. But DK gets San Francisco. The forty nine
ers have allowed the most fantasy points of slot wide
receivers this year. If that negative game script hits and
the Titans start throwing a lot, I could see DK
walking away with a lot of volume and hopefully fantasy points.
And then I have two more call outs to make
(12:40):
that are injury related. The first one I'm assuming that
t Higgins is going to be out this week, although
that's not official. That makes Mitchell Tinsley and andre Josi
Bash reasonable sleepers. The last time we saw this Bengals
team against the Ravens, it was Tinsley who hit a
twenty and a half percent target chair. He saw nine targets.
He just got two of them for only twenty two yards.
(13:00):
But the volume was there. The problem is that the
routeshare wasn't. It was just sixty two percent. And that's
why I think Yosi Bosh is still the safer bed.
He had a ninety six percent routehare against Baltimore, which
is going to be more stable from a projection standpoint.
But both of them, and what could be a higher
scoring game, both of them could work. Baltimore's allowed the
fifth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and
(13:22):
then the other player here is Ryan Flanoy. This is
only if ced Lamb is out, but Flanoy should step
in as Dallas's number two wide receiver if Lamb is out.
He saw an impressive twenty eight percent target shair last week. Now,
last week's game it was against Detroit. That's a much
better matchup than the Minnesota matchup they have this week.
But as I talked about in the ten Trends episode,
(13:43):
Dallas has been through these tougher matchups all year and
they've still seen production. Their twenty seven point implied team
total that helps things too. Now at tight end, let's
start with Dalton Schultz. The Cardinals seem to always be
bad against tight ends, this year really no different. They've
the eighth most adjusted points to the position and the
sixth highest adjusted target shair to the position. Schultz is
(14:05):
an incredibly, incredibly boring play, but in PPR formats he
can get it done. He said, double digit PPR points
and six of his last nine, and his route share
has consistently been over that eighty percent mark. Theo Johnson's
another one. He's been a staple for me this year
and it's no different this week against the second best
matchup for tight ends by adjusted points allowed. He's coming
(14:26):
off his six point performance against New England, so nothing special,
but he did hit a thirty three percent target share
in that game with Jackson dartback. He's typically been in
the high teens, low twenties and target share with Jackson
Dart so you have to like him in the spot
this week. Darren Waller didn't get a ton of run
last week. He had a fifty nine percent route chair,
(14:46):
but he had a respectable fourteen percent target chair. He's
been in a fifteen percent and fourteen percent target chair
over his last two games. This week, the Dolphins get
the Steelers and there's at least more of a chance
for a negative game script against them than there was
against the Jets last week. Without time Rod Taylor. That
means more passing and more of a reliance on someone
like Darren Waller. Pittsburgh's been the fifth best matchup for
(15:06):
tight ends this year by justin points allowed too, so
I'm cool with Waller. If that negative game script hits,
I'd imagine his route share it's gonna increase week over week.
I'll keep this one quick because I talked about him
on the fifteen Transaction Show, But Isaiah likely he gets
the Bengals in end this week. Cincinnati has been historically
bad against tight ends this year, and likely he's seeing
(15:27):
about a seventeen percent target share in this Ravens offense
since Lamar Jackson came back, and he's been outperforming Mark
Andrews over their last few games. So I don't mind
Isaiah likely at all in this spot. And then I
also want to shout out Pat Fryarmouth Darnell Washington's in
concussion protocol. That's actually a huge deal for Friarmuth. Washington
(15:47):
has about a forty percent route share this year. Friarmuth
last week saw solid enough sixty three percent route participation rate.
I'd imagine that's going to be higher if Washington is
sidelined in Miami their opponent. They've been the third best
man for tight ends this year by justin fantasy points allowed.
Now with defenses this week, I did like Jacksonville, but
they're rostered in too many leagues now. So some deeper plays,
(16:10):
some sub fifty percent plays. You've got San Francisco against Tennessee,
you got Chicago against Cleveland, and maybe even Dallas against Minnesota.
All three of them should work, with Dallas being more
of that deeper play. That's it for today's show, though,
thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
you are retwartching Forred pretty much anywhere podcast can be found,
(16:31):
and don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on
Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly
Mailbag episode.
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