The Show: Josh Allen's Thursday Night Performance, Pass Funnel Defenses, and More

JJ and Kitchen talk about Thursday Night Football, some defensive data, bold predictions, and so much more on this week's Late-Round Fantasy Football Show.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,
which originally aired yesterday on YouTube. If you'd like to
catch it live, you can find it on the Late
Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel at one pm Eastern every
Friday during this twenty twenty five season. That's on YouTube
dot com slash at Late Round FF. So, without further ado,

(00:20):
here's this week's episode.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Welcome In. Welcome In. It's Week twelve Late Round Fantasy
Football Show. David Kitchen here alongside JJ JJ. How's it going?

Speaker 3 (00:44):
Bow, I'm good. I like that. I'm just JJ. No,
there's no last name.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Sweet JL. So it's Sweet twelve.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
Shouldn't people, I mean they should hypothetically now, yes, because
Sweet twelve.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
I'm with JJ, Zacharies and at Late Round QB on
those socials you want to do?

Speaker 3 (01:04):
You want to?

Speaker 2 (01:04):
You know?

Speaker 3 (01:04):
We did have Brian Drake on Perspectives this week. Who is?
Was I not wrong when I said what I said
on the show? How he is?

Speaker 1 (01:11):
Just like you talk to him and you're like you
were made for radio, dude, like you were me.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
Not because I think he's unattractive, but because.

Speaker 1 (01:21):
His voice is so so good for radio, Like it's
just so good, and he's very good at presenting his
information in that way. Me, I am not a radio person.
In fact, more people have said that my voice is
annoying than not through the years, so I'm probably not
even a podcast person, to be honest with.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
You, Holly. My wife would make fun of me because
she would come down whenever I was doing the midnight
show back in the day for Serious x SAM Fantasy
And there is like a different cadence that you use.
You know, Hey, welcome to Serious six am Fantasy Football.

(01:58):
You know, like so doing that, and so sometimes even
now she'll go, hey, I'm David Kitchen, you know, Like
I mean.

Speaker 3 (02:06):
To this day, Avery, my daughter comes up to me
and she says, what's up.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Everyone, it's JJ Zachary, Like she still does it to
me to this day. She's just grown up literally with
that cadence because I started the podcast about a year
before she was born, so she does not know a
life without her father being a podcaster.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, it's I mean, it is a it's a tough
situation when you're famous like you are, JJ. I get it.
I get it.

Speaker 3 (02:32):
That's definitely what I'm saying here.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yeah, definitely when you're everywhere. When your kid just turns
on everything and they see you.

Speaker 3 (02:41):
It's just it's just funny.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
It's just funny because like, you know, she's now in
second grade, so like they you know, she talks to
her friends, and I'm sure it comes up like you
know what your parents do, that kind of thing, like
they don't know what their jobs are. You don't know
what your parents did whenever they were. But she just
she just thinks it's normal for for dads to have podcasts, which,
to be fair, in twenty twenty five, half of dad's

(03:03):
probably have podcasts anyway, so she's probably not that wrong.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
This came up this week where my one of my
daughters said, Dad, I was walking in with she listened
to her friend's name, and she said, what is exactly
your dad does? Because you've never really been able to
explain it.

Speaker 3 (03:21):
Yeah, and she.

Speaker 2 (03:22):
Goes, so's dad, what do I like? What do I say?
And I was just like, say, your dad is the
CEO of late Round Media and tune in lateround dot com.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
I don't know around dot com, baby, just say, just
say go to lateround dot com and they'll figure it
all out.

Speaker 2 (03:38):
That's right, all right? You can go to lateround dot
com and figure it out with the Patreon that we have.
Come join our community. And here's the here's the big
push today. Need you to like the channel, really needs
you like the channel.

Speaker 3 (03:54):
We are cool.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
We are we are like eighty people away from ten k. Yeah,
so if you're watching this, please please go like the
channel and uh and or subscribe to the channel. Like
the video, leave a comment because we do. It's an
interactive show. You know, we get down and nerdy on

(04:15):
the show. So uh, Bogy said, who killed the QR?
I need to bring the QR back for just for Patreon.
We're no longer you know, our for right now where
we don't have a show sponsor. So that's why the
the QR code is gone. But maybe we just need

(04:35):
to bring it back for just late round because we do.

Speaker 3 (04:38):
We really need to. I'm not sure we need to.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
Davis Davis, I don't know if you listened to the
Swoll cast, but he said that he kind of got it.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
I heard that. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (04:50):
So so also for for audio listeners, especially because I
think the people that watch live on YouTube, they know
that you know, you do this Smoll cast and all
that kind of stuff. But Kitchen does this the smoll,
which is a DFS typically like more DFS centric, but
it's also sort of like living the stream and that
you guys go off topic and you talk about lots
of random stuff.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
If you're looking for information, it's not the show for you.

Speaker 3 (05:11):
Sure, sure, yeah.

Speaker 1 (05:13):
So Davis Maddock recently had a child and you guys
were talking about the QR code stuff, and he said
that that's actually that the QR code stuff is actually
now his demographic because he understands you can't you don't
have time to do whatever you need to do whenever
you're holding a baby, feeding a baby, all that kind
of stuff.

Speaker 3 (05:31):
And I never have liked Davis less than in that moment.

Speaker 2 (05:37):
When he was talking about being a dad for the
first time and needing to scan the QR code on
the TV when he's watching it holding his child. I
get it.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
I mean, the thing is like, if you need a
QR code to go to lateround dot com, you can
type in lateround dot com just as easily as scanning
a QR code if you have a baby in your hand.

Speaker 2 (05:57):
Are you done?

Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, let's go. Let's move on.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
Today's fantasy news. All right, let's talk about this Thursday
night football game because I wanted, I just want your
honest reaction to how good the Texans defense looked and
how bad the Bill's offense looked.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
I'm gonna say this, Okay, I had Josh Allen as
a cell on fifteen transactions this week, and it was
a risky, risky thing to throw out.

Speaker 3 (06:29):
Yeah, okay, the best quarterback in fantasy.

Speaker 2 (06:32):
Scored like fifty points the other day.

Speaker 1 (06:34):
Yes, And like I understand, the ceiling is absolutely there.
It's just that at quarterback, it's just a naturally little
bit devalued position and it is a little bit more
predictable than other positions in that like, Josh Allen was
not the QB one this week in rankings. He was
like my QB four or five or something like that.
Obviously he's gonna end up as like the QB twenty
five based on his performance last night. But regardless, it

(06:58):
does make me feel better about that transaction. From the
standpoint of the core of the transaction was the week
fifteen and sixty or sixteen and seventeen games, rather where
they're at Cleveland in Week sixteen, they're at Cleveland, Like
that is not a great great spot for Josh Allen.
And I'm not saying it's gonna go one way or
like we don't know for sure. I'm just saying logically

(07:20):
it's it's not a great spot for Josh Allen. You know,
Cleveland right now they're the third best team by justin
Fantasy points allowed. And then Championship Week is is in Buffalo,
which Josh Allen will play better in Buffalo, but they
get Philadelphia and Philadelphia is playing out of their mind
right now too defensively, and so and not only that,
it's a colder environment you know in Buffalo like it,

(07:41):
it's not necessarily as conducive for scoring. And so my
thought this is not a Josh Allen problem, to be fair,
Like when you're rolling out Tyrell Shavers and you know
Josh Palmer and you know klol Shakir is a good
slot guy, but he's not a number one, Like he's
not a knocks right now. Yeah, Like they don't have
all of their dudes right now, Slash.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
They don't have dudes, you know. Like I made the tweet.

Speaker 1 (08:03):
I sent a tweet out last night when Nate Yankee
of PFF tweeted the snaps of the in the first
half for the Bills wide receivers, and I quote tweeted
and I said the Buffalo Jets because it literally looks
like the New York Jets, and how they with al
Garret Wilson of course, right, and how they just have
a bunch of guys on their team that are not Studeley,
They're not great, and it's a really really I genuine

(08:26):
I think any Bills fan right now is sitting there
and they're like, why did we not give up a
first round pick for Jalen Waddle? You know, like, why
did we not do that?

Speaker 2 (08:33):
Now?

Speaker 1 (08:33):
On the flip side, Houston's defense is really good. We
knew that it was really good, and it's it's the
best defense in fantasy. They have some good matchups rest
of season. Like it's a it's a defense that you
can feel confident in pretty much every single week, especially
after a performance like that. You know, I've seen a
lot of takes. We saw it in discord last night
of like did CJ. Stroud lose his job because Davis

(08:56):
Mills was not good last night? Like they did nothing
in the second half offensively last night, And a huge
reason in my opinion that the run game can't get
going in these spots is because they don't have to
respect the pass game at all, because Davis Mills is
missing some some relatively open throws, you know. So it
was good to see what he marks once again, get
sort of a really high snap share and a really

(09:18):
good workload. You know, better games should happen for him.
But it wasn't like he was complete complete dust last night.
From from a fantasy perspective, wasn't good. We needed like
four or five more points for it to be more
of like an average game. But you know, he's at
least getting the workload. Jayden Higgins I thought looked really
good again. I think his second half breakout is definitely
you know, I had him on fifteen transactions this week.

(09:39):
I think that second half breakout is really starting to
come to fruition. Still haven't seen as much Jalen Knowle
as I've wanted, But Christian Kirk.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
Had a good game last night. He looked pretty decent
last night.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
So yeah, I mean, like I thought that Buffalo really underperformed.
They need to get James Cook more involved in the
passing game still, in my opinion, and they have problems
at wide receiver and that's why we see what we're
seeing with the the Josh Allen and the and his
production in the passing attack and all that.

Speaker 2 (10:06):
Sort of stuff. There was a moment of silence and
the discord for what he Marx when he went down
or it would just like when he was down looking
at his knee and so what what he marks?

Speaker 1 (10:18):
Has torn his achilles four times this year and he
wouldn't get up all.

Speaker 3 (10:21):
The time with him? Yeah get up?

Speaker 2 (10:23):
What he get up?

Speaker 3 (10:24):
Yeah? So he did.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
He came back in, but he looked decent.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Someone someone made the comment to Bogie and Chat and
it's a very valid. One part of the problem with
Wody Marx right now is that he's not getting enough
looks through the Yeah.

Speaker 3 (10:39):
Like that that's the issue and Marx that that's where
I thought.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Marx is best in a role where he's like a
fifty sixty percent running back rush air player, where Nick
Chubb can compliment him, and that's fine, But the the
value of what he marks is get him out in
space on the outside, let him let him do his
work as a receiver, because he's a really good receiver.
That that's that, that's literally his bread and butter. And
that's why the Zap model actually liked him. You know,

(11:03):
in my opinion, it was overflating him a little bit,
but it's why they It's why the ZA model liked
him because he was he was a good pass catcher
over the last couple I think he had like, what
what one target last night or something, but he he
hasn't been that involved as target shares recently before last night.
So this wasn't even last night, but two and a
half percent, six point eight percent, seven point seven percent,

(11:26):
and the two weeks prior to that he was over
ten percent. So he's been kind of on this like
four week dry spell of not getting a lot of
looks through the air, and that to me is going to.

Speaker 3 (11:36):
Be more important for his long term value than what
he can do on the ground.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
Okay, going back to the comment that you might just
need to say this, I actually laughed out loud loud
last night when you said the Buffalo Jets and Rondel
twelve said J J. Pleaser. Right now, we're kind of
going through it over here, just like you know, it
was just insult to injury.

Speaker 3 (11:55):
There's a lot of fan bases that hate me.

Speaker 1 (11:57):
Right now, I'm sorry I know spors fan base being
being number one on that.

Speaker 2 (12:01):
List, your boys, your fans, key off Coleman though, what's
going on with Keon Coleman.

Speaker 1 (12:10):
Well, I'm just gonna say not good as my reaction.
I think that Coleman, you know, he was a high
variance draft pick this year if you were drafting them
in the double digit rounds. We kind of knew that
he was a high variance prospect coming out, not one.

Speaker 3 (12:24):
That got a ton of separation.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
He was an early declare, but his production profile really
was not elite coming out, tons of tons of question
marks like it could have gone. You know, to me,
the ceiling was there, but the floor was also there,
and I think we're just seeing the floor outcome. Which
in those situations like when we talk ceiling and floor
with prospects, I think it's really important for people to
remember that the floor is going to hit more often

(12:45):
than the ceiling, you know, very like we get way
more if you were to be an and I've thought
about this before, being an analyst who just hates on
every single prospect, because you will be right more frequently
if you just say I don't like this player over
and over and over again, because there are more failures
than there are successes. Because in fantasy football, like our
line of failure is is higher than like what you know,

(13:10):
like you could look at like Rashad Bateman right now,
for instance.

Speaker 3 (13:13):
Who I liked as a prospect.

Speaker 1 (13:15):
He had a good production profile and such, but clearly
from a fantasy perspective, has not been has not lived
up to his first round price tag at all from
a draft capital standpoint, right, But in the real NFL,
in the actual NFL, he's had a decent enough career.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
You know, it's all like he's been amazing, but he's had.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
A decent enough career where you could say, yeah, he
wasn't like that big of a bust for like a
later first round pick. It's not that big of a deal.
It's not like Josh Dockson or anything like that. Right,
But in fantasy we will group a Josh Dockson with
a Rashod Bateman because neither of them are that relevant
fantasy in general. And so when we do get those
like high variance profiles, it is really important to remember

(13:53):
that the ceiling is not going to hit at a
fifty to fifty rate, you know, versus the floor. The
floor is gonna hit way more often, and I think
for Keon Coleman and some of those other guys that
were drafted in that range, aside from Lad McConkey, we're
seeing more of that floor hit for those guys. I
still think the jury is out on like Ricky Piersall
and uh, you know Xavier Worthy obviously, Jalen Polk is dust.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
You know Keon Coleman dust right now.

Speaker 1 (14:16):
I think there's one other that I'm missing that someone
in chat will will shout out from from that area
of the draft last year. But you know, it's it
would be shocking if Keon Coleman all of a sudden
becomes a very fantasy relevant player for us.

Speaker 2 (14:30):
Yeah, do you think it's performance based or do you think
it's like, Yeah, I.

Speaker 3 (14:33):
Think it's both.

Speaker 1 (14:34):
I think that he's not been good and he's also
not like he's had maturity. I mean, there is an
interview with Kay Adams and Tyrrell Shavers that I saw
just a clip and Shavers was like, or, uh, you know,
Kay Adams was asking him about like his relationship with
Keon Coleman and how to navigate that because you know,
it's a really weird I mean, it was a great

(14:54):
question to ask, and honestly one that a lot of
journalists and interviewers wouldn't ask. But uh, you know, he
said that Tyrrel Shafer said that he Shavers is like
the older brother in the relationship between the two because
Keon Coleman's really young, and then he used the word
mature and the lack of maturities and I'm more mature
is what he said about him versus Keyon Coleman. So

(15:14):
it's a combination of like, like when there's off the
field issues with players, very rarely are those players like
balling out on the field. You know, Antonio Brown situations
are so interesting and crazy because dudes are doing stuff
off the field and you're like, or Josh Gordon right,
where like these guys are doing stuff off the field,
but they're still balling out on the field and you're like,
how is that? You're just naturally unbelievable. I know Antonio

(15:37):
Brown had like a crazy work ethic, but like Josh
Gordon's a great example where like we've heard all these
stories after the fact about what he was doing and
how he was you know, feeling in his brain during
games and stuff and he was still doing what he
was doing. Those are the stories that are crazy. But
most often when there's off the field stuff, for like
maturity stuff, it's gonna be from players who just like
aren't getting it done on the field, and Keon Coleman

(15:58):
hasn't gotten it done on the field.

Speaker 2 (16:00):
Okay, we just got some I'm gonna skip around from
this the sheet because we just got news. Patriots waters
were Kaishan Boudi this ham string and running back Romandre
Stevenson his toe are cleared to make their return from
injury and are expected to play Sunday.

Speaker 3 (16:20):
Yeah, so no surprise. I think that was that was
all expected.

Speaker 1 (16:26):
I think the New England backfield is the biggest fantasy
storyline right now this week. You know, I've said my piece.
I think that Travion on perspectives, Yeah, we talked about
on perspectives. I talked about it on the ten Trends episode.
Every piece of data points to Traveon Henderson being a
more impactful player than Ramandre Stevenson.

Speaker 3 (16:46):
But guys like I can't sit here.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
I can sit here and say I think Travion's better,
But teams will do what they want to do. You know,
there there are other things that they see that I don't,
and you know, they want to play their their games
and they're there, they want to run their offense a
certain way.

Speaker 2 (17:02):
You know.

Speaker 1 (17:03):
It's just that's just the way that it goes in fantasy.
Running back is a little bit more difficult sometimes to
wrap your head around, and then eventually, you know, sometimes
your takes come to you know, like I'm a big
Sean Tucker guy. Even had him in the draft guys
as a target because Rashad White was hurt to start
the year. And it takes a little bit of time
sometimes for like the talent to just win out. And

(17:23):
you got to cross your fingers that talent's winning out
with Traveon Henderson versus Ramondre Stevenson. I do think it's
a one A, one B situation right now. If I
were to project, I'd say Travion is like a fifty
five to sixty percent running back rush air player, Romandre
getting the rest of that, and then through the air,
maybe Travion can be like that ten percent target share guy.

(17:44):
Their schedule is so good that both guys can be
relevant in fantasy, you know, Like that's the that's been
my takeaway with all of.

Speaker 3 (17:49):
This is that people want to bury one of these guys.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
I think both of them can be relevant because the
you know, Remandre could see some work close to the
goal line. Traveon can break a big play, and he
can get more work as a receiver. Like they can
work in tandem, and it is hypothetically like a decent tandem,
And so I'm still bullish on both. Like oddly, I
was kind of in line with the market with how
I ranked Travion rest of season, and then I was

(18:12):
eight spot running back spots ahead of market with Vermandre
earlier this week, whenever I did my rest of season rankings.
So you know, I think both. I think that backfields
just an attractive one in general rest of season.

Speaker 2 (18:23):
All right, broad until week thirteen. So it's a question.
Joe Burrow is officially questionable for Sunday. But JJ, yeah,
he wasn't stretching with the other quarterbacks today.

Speaker 3 (18:38):
He was not stretching.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
No, well yeah, they were stretching on one side of
the field and he was not stretching, but he did
have his helmet on.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
I think he's playing, You think so.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
I do, because he's a competitor and he is you know,
I joke about this, but at least crossed my mind. Okay,
it's crossed my mind, and it's probably crossed other people's
minds too, So don't at me when I say this.
He doesn't want any more weeks of the potential of
him looking worse with a forty year old quarterback stepping
in and at least being functional, like functional within this offense.

(19:12):
Like if you're Joe Burrow and you've been sitting out
and you have these weapons and you have the like
and and Joe Flacco's come in, and not to say
that he's been as good, because he hasn't. Joe Flacco
is actually pretty bad last week. But Flacco comes in
and he performs at the level that he's performed at,
which is not bad. You don't think that is crossing
Burrow's mind to be like, I gotta get back on
the field as soon as I can.

Speaker 3 (19:33):
Like that.

Speaker 1 (19:33):
It's at least it's it's at least something that's driving
him to want to push it a little bit.

Speaker 3 (19:40):
You know, it's a little bit taky, It's a little
bit it's a little bit radio of me, if you will.

Speaker 2 (19:44):
Yeah, little a little normy, little normy JJ coming through.

Speaker 3 (19:49):
I don't I really could.

Speaker 2 (19:51):
I could come back against your normy take and say, well,
wouldn't he want to wait until Jamar Chase is is
back fully? So yeah, but but.

Speaker 1 (20:01):
I mean potentially, but what if Flakka were to come
out and have a good game against a beatable secondary?
You know?

Speaker 2 (20:07):
So okay?

Speaker 3 (20:08):
No, I mean, like I.

Speaker 1 (20:09):
Real talk though, I think that there is a situation
where Flack, you know, like Burrow, when when players just
are healthier and feel good and they're competitive, they're gonna
generally play. And Cincinnati's technically not out of it right now,
so they're gonna probably throw him on the field and
see what he can do.

Speaker 2 (20:25):
Okay, Dart out?

Speaker 3 (20:30):
Is that official?

Speaker 2 (20:32):
I believe?

Speaker 3 (20:33):
So yeah, I didn't see that report.

Speaker 2 (20:35):
Yeah, Dart is out.

Speaker 3 (20:39):
Well, that's unfortunate. This is this is a.

Speaker 2 (20:41):
True breaking news to you, right. Dun Levy was posted
in the uh yeah, the chat he's not playing.

Speaker 1 (20:50):
Yeah, well, Jameis Winston becomes a reasonable streamer this week,
and it's you know, a down grade to the pass
catchers there, I'll put I'll put down grade to pass
catchers is my reaction.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
But I think Dart will be back next week.

Speaker 2 (21:08):
Which is good, Okay, get well soon, Bucky. Bucky Irving
not going to play this week. He trending to play
next week apparently. Uh so, I will let you just
weigh in on this Bucky Irving situation, which was a
little bit odd. I guess this week.

Speaker 3 (21:26):
It was odd. I think that there was some so, okay,
what's going on with Bucky Irving?

Speaker 1 (21:34):
Reportedly, right, he's had this He had the foot injury,
and everyone's like, oh, it's the foot, and then he's
had the shoulder injury and it's clearly been the Now
someone said, Okay, I'm just reading the chat to make
sure because the Jackson Dart stuff people are kind of
all over the place, sounds like, but no.

Speaker 3 (21:51):
He's officially out.

Speaker 1 (21:53):
But with Bucky Irving, the shoulder injury has been keeping
him out right. But then it was reported Mike Florio
came out yesterday in a on his show with Chris Sims,
and he made a comment about, how you know, I
don't have the quote, so this isn't verbatim, but it
was something along the lines of, this is non football
related that's going on with Bucky Irving. And then he

(22:15):
made a comment that honestly, like, I think that he
should be blasted for. And I don't say that very
frequently about other analysts, about other reporters, because they're just
trying to do their best. But this was really irresponsible
in my opinion by him, where he said that they
would talk about it after the show, him and him
and Sims. Right, So you're out there saying something and

(22:38):
saying saying something very vague about Bucky Irving.

Speaker 2 (22:41):
Right, yeah, where people can take all sorts of assumptions
about what you have.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
So people have taken that and gone in so many
different directions about and this is a human being, this
is but Bucky Irving's a person, and you're going out
there and you're saying, Oh, it could be you know,
it's it's something that's non football related. So and then
now everyone's on the internet being like, oh, Bucky Irving
is on football or you know, it's this, or it's that.
It sounds like what it does sound like based on

(23:05):
reporting from Bucks Beat writers.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
So this is not from me.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
I've not talked to anybody, but it sounds like there's
been some mental health related thing going on post injury.
And I think that if that's the case. You know,
instead of being like, wow, that's insane, that's so silly,
that's stupid. You have to understand that these guys are
athletes and they're doing things at the highest possible level,
and when something really frustrating, like an injury happens like that,

(23:32):
it could be very I mean, when guys tear their acls.
Doctors and physical therapists talk all the time about how
the recovery from that ACL is not simply the physical recovery,
it's being able to come back and not be afraid
to cut, you know, on that it's no different than
any injury that you've gone through if you're a runner,
if you're a lifter, and then you go back to

(23:53):
do that thing, and you think to yourself, oh my gosh,
I really hope this doesn't happen again.

Speaker 2 (23:57):
Take that.

Speaker 3 (23:57):
Multiply it by about a.

Speaker 1 (23:59):
Million, because it's this guy livelihood, you know, like it's
that important to this player and to this person, and
so to me it was really, uh, it was it
was just a really poor job of communicating that idea
by Florio. You know, this is I'm only saying about
this situation, not Florio in general. It's just I think

(24:20):
that that was handled really, really poorly. Fortunately, it sounds
like Bucky Irving is going to be back next week.
That's the way that Todd Bowles talked about it, how
it's being reported. And so if Bucky is back next week,
that means from our perspective, because we have to give
this this fantasy spin because it's what we're doing here.
From our perspective, that means that in week thirteen there's

(24:42):
gonna be a little bit of a ramp up period
for Bucky. Maybe we see that again in week fourteen,
and then I'm hoping that that means that once the
fantasy playoffs hit, he's actually in a pretty good spot
and they have a really good playoff schedule. They have
a good schedule after this week. The Buccaneers running backs,
So I'm excited for Bucky to get back on the field.
I think one of the most fun running backs to watch.
And I hope he gets well, Like I hope that

(25:04):
things are good and that he you know, has his
has things in check and he feels great about it
because you know, we want to see him perform, and
that's it's important to us as as fans of the game.

Speaker 2 (25:15):
Yeah, Yeah, I want to see book you out there.
I want to see all those guys out there. I'd
like to see samuela Porte out there too. But it
reported that he had back surgery and is uh basically
slim chance that he comes back this season. And that's
I wasn't expecting that. Were you expecting that?

Speaker 3 (25:35):
I mean he was on IR, Yeah, but I thought
I thought he'd just come.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
Back maybe, Yeah, I mean there was some speculation that
was a bad back injury. But I you know, I'm
I mean, admittedly I don't have a ton of Samuel
Porta and and you know, I uh, I haven't like
checked the same way that I've.

Speaker 2 (25:50):
Been and he did have Jamo. Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (25:54):
Part of the thing with that, though, part of the
thing with that is that, like when a dude goes
on IR from my process perspective, so you guys can
kind of see how I'm thinking, how I think about
this stuff. When a dude goes on IR and I
know he still has three weeks on IR, I don't
need to really keep tabs on his situation until there's
a report, you know, like until we get closer to
when he's coming back, and I can see but he
still had a few more weeks left. He's only been

(26:14):
on IR for one week, so from my perspective, I'm like, yeah,
you know, I don't really have to plan a haggasse.
I don't have that much Laporta. I'm not going to
really dig into this right now because I don't need to.
I'm gonna be talking about him on the podcast and stuff,
but I am going to talk about him now because
he's obviously off for the year. I think that this
is a really big deal for the Lions offense just
in general. But a lot of people are gonna take
what happened last week against Philadelphia and sort of translate

(26:37):
it and think, like you know, and use a little
bit of too much correlation and causality with Sam Laporta
being out and thinking that that's the reason why they struggled.

Speaker 3 (26:46):
I'm sure that played a role because he's good, But
they're gonna bounce back.

Speaker 2 (26:51):
Then.

Speaker 1 (26:51):
They're probably gonna bounce back this week. Like I would
not be shocked if they put a forty burger up
against the Giants. This is very similar to what happened
after Week one against the Packers. So I'm uh, you know,
get well soon, Sammy. Yeah, my Dynasty rosters will miss you.

Speaker 2 (27:05):
Yeah, but.

Speaker 1 (27:08):
I do think that this could help Jamison Williams a
little bit even give Aram and Ross Saint Brown a
little bit more love.

Speaker 3 (27:14):
You know, brock Wright is like a low end tight
end two now each week, but also low key. We
might see a little bit more.

Speaker 1 (27:21):
J Mer Gibbs Gibbs, Yeah, you might see a little
bit more of him through through the because they ran more.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
It seemed like, at least I didn't.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
I didn't dig into this, but it seemed like they
ran more to running back sets this past week against
against Philadelphia this.

Speaker 2 (27:33):
Week and the late round discord again. You can go
to laterun dot com to join the Patreon and join
the discord and hang out with us. Whenever the news
broke about Trey Benson, Yeah, it was just I was
getting alerts, pings, JJ get in here, and then you
come in all caps, Travion Benson. Let's go like, we

(27:57):
just weren't expecting the timing of it, and so it
was a pleasant surprise. That being said, he did look
good in practice. Gannon said, we'll see how he goes today,
that being today being Friday, And then they did sign
Jamar Jefferson to the active roster since her McCormick to
the practice squad. So not really sure what's gonna happen

(28:20):
this week.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
Yeah, I don't think he's gonna go this week in
my opinion, And honestly, we'll probably learn, like two hours
after the show is done, whether he's.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
Gonna be going or not.

Speaker 1 (28:28):
So if you're listening to the audat speed, you're gonna
hear that, you know you're already gonna know the answer
to that. But the reason why I've been bullish on
Trey Benson versus the market is simply because again we're
thinking about the playoffs, like we're we're in this phase
right now in fantasy football where we have six weeks
left in the season right if you make it to
the championship, and so half the season is the fantasy playoffs.

(28:49):
So you better be like, you know where your team
stands right now, and so you can make moves and
act as I've talked about on fifteen transactions over the
last handful of weeks. You can act to plan ahead
and be in a good position for when you know,
those those playoff weeks hit. And with Trey Benson, I
had him as a bye simply. Last week I had
him as a bye simply because he could come back soon.

(29:12):
Number one, Arizona's running backs have not been special since
he's been down. Like they've they've had this really weird rotation.
There's been games where like Amaro de Mercado is playing
a certain early down role because an injury happened. I mean,
it's just been like absolutely crazy in the way that
they've deployed these guys. I think hopefully this week we
have a little bit of a clearer way of discerning

(29:33):
which role these guys are gonna have, where like Bam
Knight's more of that early down will run some routes,
and then Michael Carter more of the satellite back for them,
and then boom done.

Speaker 3 (29:41):
Hopefully we're good to go. Hopefully that's just it.

Speaker 1 (29:44):
But the reason Trey Benson has been so attractive to
me is because in Week sixteen, the Cardinals are at
home against the Falcons. The Falcons, I mean they just
seem like I think I think Brian said it, on perspectives,
it's like they've just given up, right, Like they're just
like the defense is not playing as well as it
did to start the year. The offense is horrible. They've

(30:04):
they've just mostly given up. And then in week seventeen
they get Cincinnati. That's a best matchup on paper by
justin fantasy points allowed. That cames in Cincinnati, but again
it's a better matchup of the two. So there's a
very real chance, Like would you be shocked if Trey
Benson sees sixty five to seventy percent of their running
back rushes in a ten percent target share rest of
season when he's back. I mean, I wouldn't that That's

(30:26):
what he was trending towards before he got hurt, back
in like week four whenever that was.

Speaker 3 (30:30):
So I think there's a chance that.

Speaker 1 (30:31):
We see some good production, some good RB two production
from Trey Benson.

Speaker 3 (30:37):
And that gets me excited.

Speaker 1 (30:39):
And that was why the discord was excited, because I
had talked up Trey Benson before and in these situations
like we don't know when Bucky Irving's going to be back,
we don't know when Trey went, Ima said Trayon Benson.
We don't know when Trey Benson's going to.

Speaker 3 (30:50):
Be back, and so nickname yeah.

Speaker 1 (30:54):
And so yeah, I mean, like I I you know,
you're I have as much information as you guys do
with injuries. I'm just going by like a game theory play,
and that game theory play is okay, he's probably gonna
be back.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
Let's put some.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
Odds to that and then look at this situation, look
at the schedule, and go from there.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
Titans legend, Detroit legend, Jermar Jefferson another JJ.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
So he was a he was a prospect favorite by
many coming out.

Speaker 2 (31:23):
Oh yeah, yeah, okay, in joke. Uh, he didn't practice
again this week. Yeah, so probably I'm guessing he's not
going to play.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, I mean usually Wait, no, it says that that
he said no status for Ndjoku or Garrett today.

Speaker 3 (31:43):
Yeah, yeah, he's back.

Speaker 1 (31:44):
So it's it's bad for bad for Fannin is my
is my reaction. I honestly just am scared to use
anyone in the Browns offense this week, including quin Shawn Judkins.

Speaker 2 (31:55):
I mean about schud Or Sanders and super Flex.

Speaker 1 (31:57):
Look, no, never Shador Sanders had the one of the worst.
I don't care that he was coming in relief and
anything can happen. I mean, hopefully like a week of
practice will help him out, but man, he was horrific
against Baltimore last week, and so good match up on paper,
but I think there's a very I mean, what what's

(32:19):
his what's his line set for his passing.

Speaker 3 (32:22):
Yards this week?

Speaker 1 (32:22):
He's got to be under one fifty, right, like it's
it's it's got to be not very strong.

Speaker 2 (32:26):
I don't know, one fifty is really low, but probably
probably around that. It's like cam Ward esque. Yeah, let's
just say.

Speaker 1 (32:33):
I mean, he's he's yeah in that in that I
don't I don't know if he's cam wardbad.

Speaker 3 (32:38):
But sorry, I'm just kidding.

Speaker 2 (32:42):
Oh JJ. Let's just get to the Titans. Poor Titans,
because Calvin Ridley broke his fibula like one of the
first plays back let me catch, and then uh, you
also have Iomanner struggling with a hamstring injury. It's like
they're left with with very very little. Yeah, However, lots

(33:09):
of people this week have been coming to the defense
of cam Ward and maybe that's just some Titans kopium
on my part.

Speaker 3 (33:15):
Yeah, it's Titans copium.

Speaker 2 (33:16):
But I'm seeing one Jordan Tyson or McKay lemon from
uh the USC, you know, one of these generational wide
receivers coming in to save the day.

Speaker 3 (33:31):
I mean, that's not gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (33:33):
The odds, the odds of I'm just playing probability here, Yeah,
the odds that cam Ward is him, and I'm going
to give him the rest of the season obviously to
improve on his numbers and stuff, but just.

Speaker 2 (33:45):
He he has just a like it could be like
Drake May last year, you know, just think.

Speaker 1 (33:50):
Better numbers than cam Ward last year he had with
just as bad, if not worse of a supporting cast.
So I'm not this is not I don't think this
is a Drake May situation. What I will say is
I never say never with quarterbacks anymore. Like that Sam Donald,
if you were to ask me this like six or
seven years ago, I'd probably be like, yeah, I mean

(34:11):
it's he's done.

Speaker 3 (34:12):
He's toast. You can you can.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
Baker, Sam Donald, Jared Golf, all those guys that we can.

Speaker 1 (34:18):
Yeah, I mean, like, like we've seen bounce backs for sure,
and I think that it can still happen. I'm mostly
giving you a hard time, but I also probability wise, uh,
it's it's not looking that good for camp Ward long term.

Speaker 3 (34:32):
It's all looking great.

Speaker 2 (34:35):
Rogers is questionable. What do you think about the Steelers offenses.
Since you've already made the fan base man, I.

Speaker 1 (34:43):
Mean, I think that the the offense is silly. You know,
Arthur Smith with his three tight end rotation, with his
comments about Kenneth Gainwell being just as you know, interchangeable
with with Jalen Warren as a third down back, you know, as.

Speaker 3 (34:56):
A pass catching back.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
I get what the sentiment behind it, but if you
watch Pittsburgh football, Jalen Warren every single week is the
most electric player on the football field for that Steelers
offense if you just watch those games. No, obviously Kenneth
Gamel had a good game last week. It's against Cincinnati.
I'm not gonna like put too much stock into that,
but I do think he played himself into another like

(35:19):
kind of split back field with Jalen Warren a little
and banged up with his ankle. The problem with the
Steelers that Aaron Rodgers doesn't take shots down the field.
He still has a really low a dot. They don't
have deep threats, they don't have weapons to be able
to do that consistently. And DK Metcalf is just an
overrated player in general. Like we've seen that now three
years now, where he's not. You know, you can sit
there and say that he's like a good wide receiver,

(35:41):
that's fine, But year after year after year, dk Metcalf
is not reaching that twenty five percent plus target share mark.

Speaker 3 (35:48):
And targets are earned. Target share is earned.

Speaker 1 (35:50):
You have to get open in order to see a target, right,
And if dk Metcalf is covering the twenty percent mark
on a team with or twenty two percent mark on
a team with Calvin Ridley your wide receiver two, and
you know Darnel Washington and Pat Fryarmuth and John new Smith,
like that's a problem, right, And you're not getting these
splash plays because Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw the ball.

Speaker 3 (36:09):
Down the field.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
So it's kind of a messy situation right now. Not
a terrible matchup this week though for them. We'll see
what happens and we'll see how healthy Rogers is. But
I think I think Rogers is gonna play based on
you know, how things have trended.

Speaker 2 (36:23):
Okay, we got to move on. But the running back
infirm where we got Jacobs, we Alreay talked about Ramandre
touton Warren. This is the season where you get just
a bunch of banged up running backs, and you have
to figure out who's playing, and who's who's worth playing
through the injury, and who's worth the stash.

Speaker 1 (36:41):
Basically, yeah, I mean, look, if Jacobs is out this week,
he could still go.

Speaker 3 (36:46):
I wouldn't be surprised if he's just a true.

Speaker 1 (36:47):
Game time decision and not ruled out today. But if
you know Jacobs, if he goes, obviously you're playing him.
If he doesn't, I think Emmanuel Wilson's not a bad play.
Ramondre Stevenson already talked about that backfield earlier.

Speaker 3 (36:59):
Base Shall Tuton. I loved what I saw last week.

Speaker 1 (37:02):
I think Towton's just like I think he's good, and
I want to bet on talent, and I.

Speaker 3 (37:06):
Think that he has.

Speaker 1 (37:07):
He has a decent receiving profile too. And then Jalen
Warren just talked about him. We'll probably see more Kenneth
Gainwell than we would than we would like.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
Okay, let's get on to today's data.

Speaker 3 (37:18):
Today's data.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
Apparently, did I say Calvin Ridley whenever I talked about
the Steelers instead of Calvin Austin.

Speaker 3 (37:27):
That's my men.

Speaker 1 (37:28):
If I did just so that no one comes no,
I'm sure in that in that two minute span someone on.

Speaker 2 (37:33):
Spotify, I always gonna comment, and then you're gonna get
to it, and they're gonna have to underneath it say sorry.

Speaker 1 (37:39):
Yeah, no, they'll they'll delete it after I after I uh,
after I.

Speaker 3 (37:43):
Fixed the air.

Speaker 2 (37:44):
All right.

Speaker 1 (37:45):
So this chart and today's data is every team, every
NFL team, and then it looks at their adjusted total
attempts allowed and they're adjusted pass rate allowed.

Speaker 3 (37:55):
Now what this.

Speaker 1 (37:55):
Chart shows you when it comes to total attempts allowed,
it shows you how many plays in rush and pass
attempts a team runs against those defenses, above or below expectations.
Let's just take the Cincinnati Bengals for instance. Okay, the
teams against the Bengals are running six point two more
plays per game when it comes to rush attempts and
pass temps. So not even plays because I'm not accounting

(38:17):
for sacks, right, and so the teams against the Bengals
are running about six more plays per game than their
season long average.

Speaker 3 (38:26):
Teams against the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
Are running seven point three more plays per game, which
is the highest in all football. And then on the
flip side, you get the Chargers. Teams are running six
and a half fewer plays against them.

Speaker 3 (38:38):
Right.

Speaker 1 (38:39):
The one chart that I think is the one column
that's more interesting in my opinion, is adjusted pass rate allowed.

Speaker 3 (38:45):
These are essentially the teams.

Speaker 1 (38:46):
That are what we would describe as like pass funnels
or run funnels. There's a lot of different ways to
sort of call, like determine whether a team is that.
Some people might look at expected points and say that, oh,
you know, they give up a lot of expected points
through the air and not much on the ground, or
just yards per attempt versus yards per carry, that kind
of thing. What I'm doing here is this is not

(39:08):
adjusted for gamescript because that's important, Like good teams you
will have a higher pass rate against like that's an
important thing to not adjust for in this kind of circumstance.
And so with the justin pass rate allowed, it's just
looking at what is the pass rate that this team
has faced this year versus what is the average pass
rate that those teams have or have had outside of
that game throughout the season. Right. So in this case,

(39:32):
I highlighted some teams like Jacksonville. Teams that face Jacksonville
they throw the ball, they have a pass rate of
almost six percent higher than what their season long averages.
Teams that face New Orleans. On the flip side, this
is kind of surprising. They run are not that surprising
because they're a bad team.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
They run the ball a lot more. Typically the Jets
they run the ball a lot more.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
The Buccaneers, partially because of personnel but partially because of
the team. They throw the ball a lot more against
the Buck years. So you can kind of look at
this and say, Okay, you know, my quarterback, like, for instance,
Matthew Stafford, play against Tampa Bay this week, we should
expect a little bit more passing volume for the Rams
than what we've seen in recent weeks or at least
throughout the season. Based on the fact that they're playing
Tampa Bay and based on what we've seen throughout the season.

Speaker 2 (40:17):
Awesome. If yeah, if you have Stafford and DeVante Adams,
you are you just know that he's going to get
one of those passes inside the five yard line.

Speaker 3 (40:28):
Oh, he's going to jump off for sure.

Speaker 1 (40:29):
The other thing, too, is that this data I do
post on Discord part of the I do like a
little matchup cheat sheet on Discord that I post every Tuesday.
So this is this is part of that that cheat sheet.

Speaker 2 (40:41):
There you go, like a little little little nugget, little
little teaser. Yeah yeah, all right, the late round, main event.
All right, it's get to players. Do you like more
of the consensus this week? Starting with Sam Darnold against
the Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 1 (40:57):
I don't really have a guy. I mean, it's only
two spots different. I don't I'm pretty choky at quarterback
this week. For the most part, I am nervous about
the lack of volume for Darnold. Seattle, though, has a
twenty six and a half point apply team total Tennesseeason
average matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. I said
this on the show, but if Seattle gets three or
four touchdowns, just probability wise, two of them would likely

(41:20):
be passing. And if you get two touchdowns through the air,
that's usually a QB like a like a mid to
high QB two performance.

Speaker 2 (41:28):
Okay, and then we got our boy, low key low
key a great A great player to draft is what
you said when you draft from the King's Classic team
to me be a DM or text message Javonte Williams.

Speaker 1 (41:44):
Yeah, I needed you know. There were there were spots
where I did get Javonte this year. I have met
RB twelve this week and Sincesus hasn't bet RB fifteen.
I clearly like the Cowboys more than consensus based on
the next guy we're going to talk about. But the
problem with Javonte he's not getting it done that much
as a pass catcher over the last few weeks, but
his route shares haven't changed. I always talk about this,
how when you look at a box score and you

(42:06):
see how a running back or wide receiver is performing
from just raw data perspective, targets you know, receptions yards.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
You then look at target share and see what the.

Speaker 1 (42:16):
Intent is in targeting that player, and then from there
you look at route share to see if they were
even running routes. So if a guy has a twenty
percent route share, that's not very high at running back.
A fifty percent route share is pretty good at running back,
and so if he has a consistent route share, that
means more targets should be funneled his way eventually. And
that's what we've seen with Javonte Williams. He's had rout

(42:36):
chairs of fifty five percent, sixty seven percent, and fifty
three percent over his last three His target shares though
over that time have been below six percent in every game.
That should regress a little bit and help his floor
out a little bit. Not only that, the Cowboys yes
a tough matchup, Philadelphia's defense is playing well. The Cowboys
at home this year played four games, and three of

(42:56):
those four games they've scored forty points. We know that
their games typically go over, we know that they're typically
higher scoring outings, and so I am a little bit
bullish about what we could see from the Dallas offense
versus what expectation says this week.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
Okay, let's stay on the same team. Someone that had
a little too much fun last weekend but also gave
his fantasy managers some fun and some comeback stories George Pickens.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
Yeah, so Pickens, I have met wide receiver nine since
hasn't met wide receiver fourteen. Philadelphia their fifth and adjusted
target share allowed to wide receivers, which means that when
teams face Philly, they're targeting their wide receivers at a
higher rate than they typically do. They've been average against
perimeter wide receivers this year and fantasy points allowed when
they've been better against slot receivers.

Speaker 3 (43:48):
They've been pretty good against slot receivers this year.

Speaker 1 (43:50):
Since Week one, Pickens has fallen below nine targets only
one time, or sorry, only two times. So he's seeing
very consistent volume in this offense. Even with CD Lamb back,
he has a twenty six percent target share. So I
just think, you know, this is a game where they
could trail to and see more pass attempts, and they're
not going to be afraid to throw the ball a lot.
So I just think Pickens is a pretty safe option,

(44:12):
and clearly I like him more than the more consensusizing.

Speaker 2 (44:15):
All right, this one, I'm not sure if your ranking
will change because it was based on Jackson Dart starting.
It's THEO Johnson.

Speaker 1 (44:23):
Yeap, And obviously I didn't realize that Dart was officially
out because it happened right before we started doing the show.

Speaker 3 (44:28):
I do have THEO Johnson here.

Speaker 1 (44:29):
If it were Dart, I would feel a little bit
better about his target share going up, but he did
still have an eighty four percent route share last week.
You know, he's clearly their tight end one. It's mostly
a mid matchup. We should see a little bit more
passing volume from the Giants, but we'll see. I mean,
I would feel better about THEO Johnson if Jackson Dart
were playing.

Speaker 2 (44:49):
Okay, let's get on to the bold predictions. And I
just want to highlight this just so we can clarify
that they will not be But Midler says, even though
you don't advise any using your takes for gambling, up
parlayed all of your bold predictions last week and it hit.
Does this mean it's time for JJ's gambling pick segment?

Speaker 1 (45:07):
Now, I'm never going to be a betting talt. It's
not gonna happen. You guys are free to use whatever
information you want to use to to bet or do
whatever you want. You know, go to DraftKings and do
your thing. And I still, you know, I do it
because it's fun and entertaining. But I'm not looking at
this from a you know, book perspective and a line perspective.

(45:28):
I am simply saying this is how I feel about
these players, and you can, you know, you can use
it or not use it, do whatever you wish.

Speaker 3 (45:33):
But yeah, last week was Jamo what was it, Jmo
top Jamo top.

Speaker 2 (45:37):
Twelve and Trey Tucker top twenty.

Speaker 3 (45:40):
Yeah, so both both of those ended up happening.

Speaker 2 (45:42):
Yeah, And both those guys score touchdowns. Yeah, in primetime segments.

Speaker 3 (45:48):
One of those touchdowns buried me in a league by trying.

Speaker 2 (45:51):
Out because it's like, yes, the bold prediction hit and
you're like, I just lost.

Speaker 3 (45:54):
Yeah, very frustrated.

Speaker 2 (45:56):
It's tough scenes. Michael Wilson does it again, that's your
first bowld prediction.

Speaker 3 (46:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (46:00):
And when I say does it again, I don't mean
he's gonna have eighteen targets.

Speaker 3 (46:04):
I just mean that I think. I think it's another
big game for Michael Wilson.

Speaker 1 (46:08):
Jacksonville has been way worse at defending perimeter receivers than
slot receivers this year. They've been bad against tight ends though,
So I do think it's a big Trey McBride week.
But when you look at this, you know you can
go back to that today's data and see that Jacksonville
is a team that is a pass funnel, if you will.
Teams are throwing the ball a lot more against them,
and they'll throw the ball a lot more to the

(46:29):
outside and those outside receivers thirty two percent target chare
for Michael Wilson last week. Like if it weren't a
good spot for Michael Wilson, I wouldn't be bullish on
Michael Wilson, but no, Marvin Harrison Junior. We saw that
thirty two percent target chair. I don't see why it
can't be a twenty five percent target share again this week.
And if that happens, I could see a scenario where
he's like eight for ninety in a touchdown or something

(46:50):
like that. So when I say he does it again,
I mean that we could see very very good production
from Michael Wilson once again.

Speaker 2 (46:56):
Yeah, way to hedge your Betspice. Yeah, I mean that's
fourteen for one hundred and eighty five or whatever he did.

Speaker 1 (47:03):
Look if he's if he's eight for not what would
I say eight for ninety Yeah, eight for ninety and one.

Speaker 2 (47:09):
Okay, that's that. I mean that that would definitely get
there over twenty.

Speaker 3 (47:12):
That's my bold prediction. He goes eight for ninety and
one over.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
Twenty PPR points. That's JJ's prediction. I will say on
last week the look Ahead Waiver Wire, Wilson was on there,
Brissette was on there, a few other guys on there,
so Luther Burdlee, Yes, hopefully people listen there and they
didn't have to.

Speaker 3 (47:32):
Sean Tucker I think was on there.

Speaker 2 (47:33):
He spinned out Jeah Sean Tucker was on there. Yeah, Okay,
you've got Rushie Rice overall wide receiver one.

Speaker 1 (47:40):
Yeah, I'm gonna say Rice is a wider is the
wide receiver one this week? The Chiefs need to get
him going a little bit more. He only had a
twenty percent target here last week. There's a bounce back
spot for this offense. He plays about half of his
snaps out of the slot. The Colts are well below
average at stopping slot receivers this year. It's also the
third best matchup for wide receivers by justin points allowed.

(48:01):
So I think the Chiefs could just get it done
this week. It's a pretty good matchup. Uh and Rashi Rice.

Speaker 3 (48:06):
Would be the one who benefits most.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
All right, So let's get to the look ahead wherever wire.
You've got to a bunch of people on here. JJ.

Speaker 3 (48:16):
Yeah, I even put Look, I'm I'm growing too.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
I even put their their percent roster numbers right now,
like I'm getting giving people more vision.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
I even put shamr DK on this list.

Speaker 3 (48:25):
That's why I thought you were Yeah, uh, CJ. Stroud.

Speaker 1 (48:28):
They get Indianapolis next week, and he is thirty seven
percent rostered, so he would be like sort of the
go to kind of streamer.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
There's not very obvious ones at this point.

Speaker 1 (48:36):
Uh, make sure you're looking at your handcuffs right some
of those guys would include, like, I mean, these are
kind of like handcuff pluses right now where you get
Sean Tucker. Uh, who's just getting more work. Although I'm
still a little bit nervous about his matchup this week,
base Shall Tutin who you know, We don't know that.
I mean, I'm assuming Travis Oru Travis Etn is gonna go,
but he did pop up yesterday with a shoulder injury.

Speaker 3 (48:57):
Bam Knight.

Speaker 1 (48:58):
I think is gonna have one line ride this week,
So you could add him right now. You know, maybe
you don't need to stash him for for next week,
but if you need a player, Chris.

Speaker 3 (49:07):
Rodriguez, they're on by right now.

Speaker 1 (49:09):
But he's getting more work as the lead back in
that backfield, a wide receiver, Chris Godwin.

Speaker 3 (49:13):
He's at fifty three percent. Sounds like he's going to
go this week. He'll be back.

Speaker 1 (49:17):
Keisham Boodie, great matchup against Cincinnati. I love him as
a sleeper thirty six percent roster. Jayden Higgins.

Speaker 3 (49:23):
We saw last night he's getting more and more involved
in the offense. Luther Burden.

Speaker 1 (49:28):
I mean speaking of getting more and more involved in
the offense, I mean he's got by far the best
per route run numbers on that team. I mean, I
just think Luther Burden could be cash.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
It's like they can't keep ignoring him.

Speaker 3 (49:40):
You can't, Yeah, right, I mean he is he is good,
like Luther Burden's good, and he am I biased a
little bit because his.

Speaker 1 (49:46):
App model loved it maybe maybe, but I think he's
also really good and we're seeing that. Chim Ray DK,
another player of this app model, didn't really mind. He uh,
he's ten percent roster right now. You got Calvin out
for the year, Elik Iamanners banged up, ad Ni Mitchell
and Mason Taylor. I'm throwing those guys out there because

(50:06):
what if Tyrod Taylor just looks a lot better and
more competent throwing the ball than Justin Fields did. And
I think ad Night Mitchell would have the highest ceiling
of the wide receivers that in that room. Darren Waller
needs to be rostered in more than twenty percent of leagues.
I think he could easily be back next week. They
have a really good schedule down the stretch. I think
they played like what Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at one point.
Those are two really good tight end matchups. And he

(50:28):
was doing well before he got hurt earlier this year.
So keep an eye on Darren Waller. Bretton Strange could
be back this week. I don't have the official word
on that, but he was, you know, a reasonable player,
tight end streamer in stuch for Jacksonville. And then Terrence Ferguson,
another guy the Zap Model really loved. Ferguson is rostered
in zero percent of leagues, so less than one percent

(50:50):
of leagues right now. He with Tyler Higbee out, I'm
just I'm just saying. I know they have Davis Allen
and Kolby Parkinson and and obviously Terrence Ferguson, and they'll
run a lot of but they're running a lot more
thirteen personnel, and of those three, Ferguson's the one that
can really get vertical and do a lot more down
the field. And honestly, they give them, you know, from

(51:13):
like a football perspective, give them almost like an eleven personnel.

Speaker 3 (51:16):
Look in a way because he can.

Speaker 1 (51:18):
He's he's like more of that pass catching type player,
right that like not I'm not going to say he's
a wide receiver because he's not. But you can get
sort of those like eleven personnel looks but with more
tight ends on the field, and that's a really big
advantage for that Rams offense. So maybe they get creative
and more creative with Terrence Ferguson down the stretch. So
I think he's an interesting stash in deeper leagues. And

(51:39):
then at defense, the Chargers get the Raiders next week.
They're forty two percent rostered. The Bucks get the Cardinals,
they're twenty two percent. The Bucks have a really good
rest of season schedule after this week, like I've been saying,
so you could honestly stash the Bucks and use them
almost every week. And then the Dolphins get the Saints.
The Dolphins their defense playing a little bit better, and
they're coming off of by So that's more so the
reason why I would lean that way as like a

(52:02):
really you know, lower rostered option at defense.

Speaker 2 (52:05):
Yeah, I how owned is the forty nine ers defense?

Speaker 3 (52:13):
Well, because they get Carol or no, they get Carolina
this week.

Speaker 2 (52:15):
They get they get Cleveland next week.

Speaker 3 (52:18):
Right, Yeah, forty nine I think that.

Speaker 1 (52:19):
I think though, because they're playing uh Carolina this week,
that they had yeah decent.

Speaker 2 (52:25):
I picked them up last week. I think they might
have even been there.

Speaker 1 (52:28):
No, there are twenty they're at twenty two percent, so
we could add let's add San Francisco to this list.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
What the forty nine ers because they get the Browns
next week?

Speaker 2 (52:38):
My first look ahead waiver wire ad that that I've
contributed to.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
Yeah, I thought I thought that they were rostered and
more so we'll say versus Brown's.

Speaker 2 (52:47):
Twenty There we go growing up, all right, Yeah, there's
some of these options. Again, it's these running backs. Someone
on this list JJ is gonna win someone in a league.

Speaker 1 (53:05):
I'll say this, I'm do you know how exciting it makes,
how good it makes me feel that we're in week
twelve and we're talking look ahead waivers and we're throwing
out Sean Tucker, base Shall Tutan and Luther Burden.

Speaker 3 (53:15):
Those are like, those are like my trinity of.

Speaker 1 (53:18):
Players, like guys that I just like like as as players, right,
and so it's it's exciting, Like I get excited whenever
players that I prospected and saw them through, you know,
that journey of getting drafted, and now we're seeing them
on the football field at the NFL level and they're
showing out more and doing more.

Speaker 3 (53:35):
It's exciting. It's a really fun time.

Speaker 2 (53:44):
All right, let's get to the quad box. We are
looking at four games that we are looking forward to
watching this week.

Speaker 3 (53:52):
Okay, and you're going first.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
I will go first, and I will go the obvious
of Colts and Chiefs, like must.

Speaker 3 (54:03):
Be obvious to you.

Speaker 1 (54:04):
Yeah, I don't think that's the obvious to me. I
have another one that's more obvious.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
If the Colts beat the Chiefs, the Chiefs are likely
like out of the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (54:13):
Yeah it is, okay from a real football Okay, all right,
well i'll give you that Colts Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (54:18):
You just mentioned Rashie Rice wide receiver one, and you
don't want to watch him go off in this game. Okay?

Speaker 3 (54:24):
You got Colts Chiefs. I got Bucks Rams. But there's
one more than I could have done.

Speaker 2 (54:34):
Colts at Chiefs. You got Bucks versus Rams. Okay, that's
a Sunday night game. So you got the primetime game there,
m you'll probably you probably want Steelers and Bears.

Speaker 3 (54:48):
Love that you have Central time in here seven twelve.

Speaker 2 (54:52):
You know what it you know what it was as
I was caught last week, I there was an issue
with the totals not being right. Yeah, so I just
copied my ESBN page to make sure that it was correct. Sure,
and it was in central time. Yeah, I got you
a noon kickoff is amazing, all right? That being said,

(55:15):
I will go with Eagles and Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (55:18):
Yeah, And I think that was the other one. And
then now we're in this position where like there's.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
Not I'll go.

Speaker 3 (55:25):
For the last one. I'm gonna go.

Speaker 1 (55:30):
Because of the fantasy implications. Do you know what I'm
gonna go here, I'm gonna I'm gonna go Patriots Bengals.

Speaker 2 (55:40):
I almost joked that you were gonna choose this game
as a joke.

Speaker 3 (55:44):
Why is a joke?

Speaker 2 (55:46):
Because it like it's kind of like a gross kind
of like a gross game. But I do I do
think that.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
I mean, it's got a fifty one and a half total.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
I think Flacco's gonna play though, yeah he might.

Speaker 3 (55:57):
I mean, I could be very wrong about the Burrow stuff.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
But this is from rap sheet saying, judging from the
comments from the Bengals coach Zach Taylor and the caution
that he expressed. It feels like the pendulum has swung
back to Joe Flacco. So that's just rap sheet. That's
basically just rap sheets opinion.

Speaker 3 (56:15):
Of his his ViBe's based take.

Speaker 2 (56:18):
What he what he heard, all right, and Io Manners
officially out this week. I just got that notification.

Speaker 1 (56:24):
Yeah, I mean, I think that makes Tim Riy DK
a sort of a sleeper, but also a guy that
you want to have.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
Stashed Patriots in in Bengals. That's there used to there
were some good like Patriots Bengals games back in the day.

Speaker 1 (56:41):
Look, I think that the the Corey Dillon Bowl will
be a good will be a good a good game.

Speaker 2 (56:46):
Yeah, okay, well that will do it for the show. Again,
we need people to subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy
Football channel, and if you do that, it will help
us get to ten k subs.

Speaker 3 (57:03):
When we get to ten k, let's do a giveaway.

Speaker 1 (57:05):
And once we get to ten k, we'll get a
random subscribe giveaway. Yeah, we'll give an don't say that
stuff on air when I'm you're involved. Now, we'll do
some swag giveaway.

Speaker 3 (57:24):
By the way, we have a shop.

Speaker 1 (57:25):
If you go to late round dot com slash shop
or just click shop at the top of the of
late round.

Speaker 2 (57:30):
Dot coms hats as well.

Speaker 3 (57:33):
Yeah, you get East Coast dads stuff, not hats or
their hats or shirts. Yeah, I think there a hat?

Speaker 2 (57:38):
Is there not a hat?

Speaker 1 (57:39):
And then uh no, I just have a I have
a late round hat that doesn't fit my head because
my head is giant. So so yeah, I would uh
check out the shop because we got cool shirts and
hoodies and I've tested all of the shirts out and
Kitchen doesn't like it because I like thicker shirts.

Speaker 3 (57:57):
Yeah, Kitchen's like a thin shirt. Guy like thick shirts.

Speaker 2 (58:00):
I'm a soft shirt.

Speaker 3 (58:01):
This is a thick it's soft. Don't say it's not soft.
It's soft, is it? What do you mean it's not this?

Speaker 2 (58:10):
This is like a viry like. I mean, this is
probably the nicest T shirt I own, but it is
it is soft, like a heavy soft You like that
the heavy T shirts? Like heavy T shirts, Yeah, and
there's nothing wrong with that, but I wouldn't call them soft.

Speaker 3 (58:29):
I mean all T shirts are soft.

Speaker 2 (58:32):
You're getting into technicalities. Yeah, No, it's not made of plastic.
It's made of of cotton. It's just like heavy cotton.
You know, there's there's not the soft.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
I wear Dicky's teas all the time because they're a
little bit heavier, they're thicker. You know, those are probably
like you're not You're not shirtless all the time.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
Okay, all right, Uh people, I just wanted to clarify.
I was joking about the ten thousand dollars. If we
ever get to the point where we give away ten
thousand dollars on a giveaway, you will you will have
known that we have made it. You know, it's like
Rogan style.

Speaker 1 (59:11):
I mean, Rogan doesn't even do that. You're right, yeah, yeah,
we're not giving up. We're not giving away time.

Speaker 2 (59:16):
They listed Apple listed out their top podcast and we
were not one of them. If we ever get on
on the like.

Speaker 1 (59:21):
Okay, fine, we'll say that if we if the lay
Round podcast is ever in like the top on one
of Apple's releases, I'll give away ten thousand dollars. Deal deal,
not fantasy podcast, overall podcasts on Earth.

Speaker 3 (59:37):
If we're top fifty, ever, I'll give away. Sure, I'll
give away.

Speaker 2 (59:41):
Yeah, we have to be a top fifty.

Speaker 3 (59:42):
Can't be like a thousand dollars. I'll give you twenty
thousand dollars if that appens.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
Yeah, it can't be like you might also like if
you see it on you know.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
No, I'm saying like like a like a a legit
publication putting together the top podcast. If we make that,
then then yes I'll give I'll give twenty grand away.

Speaker 2 (59:59):
Okay, we're being silly. This is listen. You're getting a
little bit of a taste of what happens also in
the in the discord. So come hang out with us
if you want those Treveon Benson moments with us, or
or last night when we're all hoping for a Woody
Marks touchdown. Whenever, whenever one of the late round staples scores,

(01:00:19):
it's a fun time to be in there, even if
you don't have them on your on your team. So
uh JJ any final thoughts.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
Yeah, whenever a non late round guy scores, you know,
like a like a Zay Flowers or something.

Speaker 3 (01:00:31):
Oh wait, he doesn't score touchdowns? Okay, Oh just kidding, just.

Speaker 2 (01:00:36):
Seeing, just kidding, guys, No, I think you just guaranteed
him to touchdown.

Speaker 3 (01:00:40):
So I had look, look, I had him as a
fade shore.

Speaker 1 (01:00:43):
But then I had him as a bye whenever Lamar
was coming back, and that's not looking good. So I
do think I think better days are ahead for Zay.

Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
Okay, all right, thanks everyone for joining us, and uh
again we have the mail Bag today. We also have
the Perspectives episode with Brian Drake. It's a good episode
to get some Travion talk on there. I like the
the Syracuse talk to those fun he is. He is

(01:01:12):
such as a media guy.

Speaker 3 (01:01:14):
So everything Syracuse is like communications and radio media.

Speaker 2 (01:01:18):
Yeah. Yeah, So appreciate everyone for tuning in and uh
we love you guys, and we'll see you next time.
Here on the Late Round Fantasy Football show, A