Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro. Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk. Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far?
Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sales to China for the US government
Fu...
A radical thought experiment transforms the lives of a new breed of philanthropists, as they follow the logic of altruism to extraordinary lengths. The most famous convert to the Effective Altruism movement, Sam Bankman-Fried, is either a humanitarian hero, a con artist at an astonishing scale, or most bafflingly, both.
For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.
With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad?
Further Reading:
To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend Erik Seidel, who taught Maria to p...
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world ...
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?
This week, Na...
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, the...
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?
Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.
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Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?
We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.
For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform...
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Sil...
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
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ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two.
Further Reading:
Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker
Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker
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The Leap from Maria Konni...
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft.
Further Reading:
Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House
Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again
Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up.
Further Reading:
From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.
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The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather.
For more fr...
This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond?
Further Reading:
This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveal...
Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react?
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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