Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

When Adam McKay decided to make a movie based on The Big Short, he was mainly known for his comedies. But he managed to get a bevy of star actors — among them Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Steve Carell and Margot Robbie — to sign on and bring the intensity and arcane financial jargon of Wall Street to life. Michael Lewis sits down with McKay a decade after he made the Oscar-winning movie version of The Big Short to learn abo...

Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders.

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Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future.

From The Information: Why OpenAI Offered to Pay $500 Millio...

Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve.

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Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc says about the Democratic leadership vacuum. (And yes, they talk about Na...

The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk about whether Ballmer tried to take a page out of the mob playbook, and how ...

Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press says. Then, Nate and Maria discuss whether cancel culture led us to this particula...

It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics, checked by presidents, declawed under Trump’s second term — and why rescuing the office matters.

Find Elie’s book here: When You Come At The King

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Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus.

Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer.

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Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a game of Good Call / Bad Call.

Then,...

Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss a topic they’ve been texting ...

This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so important to play to win.

For more from N...

This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far?

Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sales to China for the US government

Fu...

With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad?

Further Reading:

AI Action Plan 

Zvi ...

To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend Erik Seidel, who taught Maria to p...

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world ...

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?

This week, Na...

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, the...