Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro. Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk. Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener f...
Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned.
Further Reading:
A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times
The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!)
F...
This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
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Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports.
Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it.
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The Leap from Maria Konniko...
Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate.
Further Reading:
Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico
Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine
What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden.
Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden.
Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.
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Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.
Further Reading:
“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin
“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN
“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda
For more fr...
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.
Further Reading:
“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.
Further Reading:
“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis.
Further Reading:
“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic
“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate
“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” ...
This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays.
Further Reading:
“SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy Brains
“Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Rule Requiring Automatic Refunds...
Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas.
Further Reading:
“OpenAI: Exodus” by Zvi Mowshowitz
Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.
Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the final table. Then, Nate discusses what RFK Jr.’s impressive polling numbers could mean for Biden and Trump. And Nate and Maria discuss Caitlin Clark and what her story tells us – or doesn’t – about the gender pay gap.
Further Reading:
The Biggest Bluff by Mar...
Launching on May 16, Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While resear...
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