以伊宣布停火 峰回路再转 Israel-Iran conflict: Ceasefire or not?

美国总统特朗普星期一傍晚在社交媒体上宣布，以色列与伊朗已同意全面停火，结束长达12天的激烈交火。

此前，美国于周末空袭伊朗三处核设施。特朗普高调宣称，美军已彻底摧毁伊朗的核能力；不过伊朗方面则表示，关键的浓缩铀早在轰炸前就已安全转移。

伊朗的核计划真的被打垮了吗？这场冲突究竟打出了什么结果？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与美国德州山姆休士顿州立大学政治系副教授翁履中，以及新加坡国立大学中东研究所研究员林婧，一起深入解析以伊虽传出停火，中东真的会迎来和平吗？

延伸阅读：

• 学者：美国袭击伊朗核设施不具正当性 但联合国宪章难约束大国
• 早知：伊朗若封锁霍尔木兹海峡将如何影响全球

US President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has left the international community questioning whether peace is truly at hand. The announcement follows 12 days of escalating conflict, which began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and intensified when the United States intervened over the weekend, launching airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites. 

President Trump claimed that Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” However, military experts and satellite imagery suggest that while the Fordow facility suffered severe damage, confirmation of its complete destruction remains elusive due to its deep underground location. 

In retaliation for US strikes, Iran launched a missile attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on June 23. There were no casualties, and the base sustained minimal damage, as both US and Qatari officials had advance warning of the attack following prior notification from Iran.

The ceasefire’s status remains ambiguous. While Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire,” both Israeli and Iranian authorities have yet to officially confirm the agreement

Questions persist about the effectiveness of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and whether this ceasefire marks a genuine step toward peace or merely a temporary pause. Did the US intervention significantly set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, or is Tehran’s claim of safeguarding its enriched uranium credible? What were the true objectives behind the past 12 days of conflict?

This episode of the Global Heartbeat podcast, hosted by Han Yonghong, features Dr Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, Associate Professor of Political Science at Sam Houston State University, and Dr Jing Lin, research fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. Together, they analyse the fragile state of Middle Eastern geopolitics and explore the potential pathways forward for the region.

Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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