May 23, 2025 • 37 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Sebastien Page, head of Global Multi-Asset and Chair of the Asset Allocation Steering Committee at T. Rowe Price, joins for an extended discussion on whipsawing markets and where money managers are allocating their money in an increasingly uncertain economic environment. The S&P 500 remains on course for its worst weekly performance since the selloff following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements at the beginning of the April.
2) Barry Eichengreen, professor at University of California-Berkeley, talks about the Trump administration's international economic policies and whether they serve both global and domestic interests. It comes as US businesses are the most worried about the impact of President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies on their revenues, with more than half projecting a hit of at least 25% to their revenue, according to a survey by HSBC.
3) Emily Roland, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, talks about continued signals from global bonds about US debt and whether it's just another warning signal that will pass. Many investors believe Trump has learned his lesson and will implement a more modest tariff plan, which is why they are no longer worried about the impact of tariffs on the market, but the market is still susceptible to macro shocks, and investors are now focusing on fundamentals.
4) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, joins to discuss President Trump's tweets on tariffs that would affect Apple and the EU.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on expensive mocktails and a Bloomberg News story on Tom Cruise receiving an aircraft carrier for one of his missions.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Joining us now we start struggling. A really wonderful Friday
with Sebastian Page had a global multi asset share of
Asset Allocation Steering Committee. Tro Price acclaimed author the best
book on diversification I've seen in his new book is
out as well, The Psychology of Leadership. I want to
go to Jain's Nordvik. Damien came walking and screaming about
(00:49):
with exante data and the single sentence from ends into
the weekend is strategic shifts are in motion. What's in
motions page?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
You know, the last forty eight hours, it's about the
thirty year bond and it's gone up above five percent.
I think that's a lot of hoopla about not much.
If I look at the long run chart, you know,
like Damien, it's a long weekend. I'm actually looking at
charts and I'm interested.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
If look at the.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Long run chart of the thirty year yield, it's actually
not that far from five percent.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Right, Well, I mean look for me, I think Ira
Josie said it best our us SO chief rate strategist.
He said, you know, the mark to market loss of
putting a negative carried position on the thirty year. I mean,
if you think thirty years are going to go up
on austerity or whatever you're you know, whatever you're thinking.
You know, it's just it's not a profitable prese mean,
the negative tract.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
This is great, But the real issue is why is
the dollar tanking? You know, on the what does trow
price say about a new structural week dollar?
Speaker 3 (01:52):
So short term on our platform, we're C two on
the dollars. C two means we're actually bullish short term
on the dollar. But Tom, this is the question of
the hour because if you look at April right by
the way, the stock market was flat in April, or
close to flat, if you can believe it, despite what
happened during the month. But if you look at what's
been happening with the dollar, it's unusual. Because economic theory
(02:15):
will tell you when you put tariffs on the best
way for the exporting country to offset them is to
devalue their currency, so you cheapen their goods to make
up for the tariff that is paid at the quarter.
The market work, and for a while it looked like
economic theory was working and the dollar should be stronger.
But then it's not behaving that way. And second thing
(02:36):
is even in the middle of selloffs I think April, third,
and fourth and huge market volatility, as Tom would say,
you know on the Vick spikes, Well the dollar was
not necessarily the safe haven in all this volatility.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Well, Tom, I'm disappointed, and I'll tell you why, because
Sebastian came in this morning and it didn't bring in
LinkedIn sensation daughter Olivia, and you know, I'm disappointed that
she's not here, by the way, I know it's early.
First sherobably a school, but you know, Sebastian, you're going
to probably take Olivia to Europe. And I know one
of your trade calls right now is you're bullish on
international act I'm sorry, really European equities, let's be clear here,
and it's not because of the value component there. It's
(03:12):
because of the momentum of the dollar cell off.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So talk to us a little bit about that.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
On a month of a month or quarter of Is
there some longevity to the styllar weakness on a quarter
of a quarter basis.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
Here Damien love that question. Love even more of the
reference to our financial education video that I've been doing
with my daughter. They're all over LinkedIn loving have a look.
She's really interested about compound interests. By the way, behind
the scenes, she still wants to spend more than she
probably should. Look on Europe, we're long European equities. I
think this is a shorter term view for US six
(03:44):
to twelve months. Longer term. We're not in the camp.
I'm not in the camp of this is the end
of US exceptionalism. US tech is a force to.
Speaker 5 (03:53):
Be reckoned with.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
But right now there's still a valuation advantage for European equities,
even if you neutralize the sector effect. You have stimulus,
you have dovish central banks. You have a banking sector
that's doing pretty well now they've escaped.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
What kind of European stocks I mean, are we buying
Nesle or we buying BMP Perry book.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
So our stock pickers those that implement our slcation strategy,
like industrial healthcare and banks that banks are at one
time book one times book value. Before the financial crisis
in Europe there were two times book value. They struggled
limping out of the financial crisis and with negative interest rates,
that's not good for banks. Now we're in a positive
(04:37):
interest rate environment, they're still trending around one times book value.
So we like those.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
So, Tom, you see what Impassion's done here. He's taken
what is effectively a value call, but he's wrapped it
up in a big fat momentum swing here in euro dollargy.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
I agree that right back to what you were saying,
I mean, it's a huge gamble about the momentum.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
I mean it's it's not right now. I mean, look
at the euro relative to and by the way, I
mean it's on the i of the beholder, right. And
if you look at emerging market currencies, for example, nineteen
of twenty one of our versus you know, the dollar
this year, but only three are up versus the Euro
this year, So you're really leaning into the factor, at
least you know your your currency strategist are leaning into
the fact that you know there may be a little
(05:14):
bit of like again, some legs to this euro strength here,
just because it's the best of the of the rest.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I guess well Themian Bloomberg Surveillance Radio is the only
show where I can get a little bit more quantitative
and theoretical. That's why Tom is my absolute favorite host
and anchor.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Are okay you non linear right now?
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well, a lot of things are nonlinear in markets. Markets
are more nonlinear than they've been historically. If you look
at tails on both sides, the left side and the
right side, positive and negative. But what it's going to
say is valuation and momentum when they align together. Yes,
historically that is a much stronger signal than either signal
(05:54):
working alone, and that's been studied across markets.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
We welcome all of you across the nation. Good morning
on Serious XM. I was lectured, did an event with Pimco.
It's a small startup money on the West coast. Sebastian
page of t row Price. How about those orioles that
endorsements really working out this year? Anyways, folks, good morning
across this Memorial Day nation. Damien Sassar and Time, can
(06:20):
we welcome you. I can't say enough on a sleepy
Friday as you get into the weekend, the markets are
not sleepy the dollar dynamics right now are extraordinary. Berry
King Green and Damien Sasa are in the eight o'clock
hour that got Ducky bumps over that on YouTube. Subscribe
to Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for that, just growing each
(06:40):
in every day. Damien sas are to Sebastian.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Page, well, I just think it's about growth expectations here
in the US, right, I mean, they really are falling.
I mean, and so you know, the question is how
far do they go or how far before the FED
catches up and wakes up to this. So I'm just
curious to hear what you know. Your great expectations are
for the great Fed expectations are sorry through the end
of this year, but more importantly in the first half
of now next year. It's just how deep do we
think the terminal FED funds rate can go?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You have to account for the possibility of an upside
surprise and inflation when you answer that question. It's not
just about growth. That's why it's tough to be the FED.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Right now, that's right, I'm going to stop the show, folks.
I'm interviewing Damian Sassar and Sebastian Page. Horse and cart
does inflation go up as the cart because the horse
is the dollar weaker, the debt and the deficit bigger.
How's that sequence work to get higher inflation.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
Well, I'll hit that first, And it really comes down
to whether the hard data catches up to the soft
data and the resilience of the US economy and whether
or not this can all play through. And I don't
think we've really gotten a whiff of what a fourteen
and a half percent effective tariff rate, because that's what
we're talking about exxanthy right if you talk about China
forty percent plus the sectoral and that's up.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
From two and a half percent from three to fourteen, right, right.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
So I mean like, I don't I don't know what
that looks like, and I don't know what this US
economy looks like in that environment, and so what the
market I guess if I had to get asymmetric on you,
I think the asymmetry is to deeper cuts.
Speaker 5 (08:04):
You know when they do.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Come Sebastian, Damian, Sebastian, I'll get they're both the great
tie up in Quebec. Sebastian, when when I did Quebec
go for Kearney, they sort of did. Didn't that Edmonton?
They did? Good morning Prime Minister Kearney Sebastian. Very importantly
here do the Americans get more inflation because of what
(08:27):
we see now in currencies and with the Build Better
America BBB bill and all.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's part of it on imports. So you're today we're
running at two point four percent inflation. If you analyze
the monthly prints, that's not too bad. The one year
swap is looking at three point three. So the expectation
is that inflation's coming up. I think there's a risk
to the upside because of commodities. Some commodities are trending up,
(08:52):
precious metals and soft commodities because of wages.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
About thirty three dollars.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Just the towers alone, right, it's you know, you would
know better than I. Just what is the impact of
these terror I mean, what is it going to do
to inflation? To prices here? I mean Walmart cost conounts,
is earnings next week? I mean we're not going to
get any look, but they're certainly going to, you know,
talk around some of that stuff. And it's just going
to be interesting to see you right in the especially
the input prices I mean and you know, all that
stuff is starting to trend to act.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Okay, So Tom, this is like we're having our mini
asset allocation committee here, because in our ass location committee
we have bulls and bears, and we have debate, and
now we're neutral or close to neutral between stocks and bonds.
But now Damien is sounding a bit bearish here, so
I'm going to give Devil's advocate the other side of it.
Earnings growing thirteen percent this quarter relative to the same
(09:40):
quarter last year. The FED more interested in cutting than hiking,
and growth, yes, is slowing, but most of it is
in the soft data. There's been a massive drop in
the soft data. But if you want to look at
one data point on hard data, I would look at claims,
and claims are still in the low two hundreds. People
are not getting fired, right.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
We've heard this this week. I really can't say enough,
folks about the anecdote that we see that America is
vibrant and busy. At least the upper third of people
consuming is they can. There's a wonderful book out now,
The Psychology of Leadership by Sebastian Page. This comes after
his tour de force on All the Traps and pitfalls
(10:23):
of diversification for parents at home falling apart because the
Brady kids are getting ready for summer. What is the
psychology of leadership for parents to get through this summer
with teenagers?
Speaker 3 (10:37):
You know I have two teenagers, so that question hits home.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Tom. I'll say to that question, I'll.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Say this, people underestimate how important it is to have
long term goals, to think long terms. And I think
that applies to the younger.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
You got to give your kids the gift.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Of long term, the long term goal and thinking long
term and and guiding your actions day to day based
on what you're trying to do long term.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Is it okay that the older teenager walks in, says
nothing and closes the bedroom door discuss.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
I mean, for me and my experiences, when you come
down to the kitchen and your daughter's they're eating, and
I say, oh, hey, what you eat and then she
goes stop badgaming me and she just runs out the door.
So I understand what you're talking about. And she's beautiful anyway,
don't get me started. But we all have our experiences there.
I think we have to take this back to the
job market, because you make a really, really really good point.
What will it takes a bashing page for payrolls to
(11:35):
come off here in the US? I mean what I
mean what and when? I mean like, when do you
if it were going to happen and we had to
play that scenario out, what should we be looking for?
Speaker 5 (11:43):
What are the first indicators there?
Speaker 3 (11:45):
So of the lagging labor market indicators, the least lagging
is the claims. So I would look at claims and
right now they're holding in.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Do you have a statistic on claims? Was a tip point?
Is it two sixty to eighty?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
Look the long run app riche on claims is three fifty.
I know, so they can go higher. They can go higher,
But that is potentially the least lagging of the lagging
labor marketing. Edvans and oilers bullish on the Oilers, Sebastian
page of Quebec and sure book, thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
He is the t road price.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
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watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Barry King Green at Berkeley Professor Ike and Green, thank
you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. Barry, I've
got to go back to you start just staying in France,
and you must read for any kid getting into the game.
Exorbitant privilege is Donald Trump furtthering away. Our exorbitant privilege.
Speaker 6 (13:00):
Is I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since
Liberation Day. It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly
than before. I've long thought that the dollar would have
to share the international stage with other currencies. I didn't
think that would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
What is so important here, Barry, is a legacy back
to the nineties of the unexpected. I was with you
at a G seven meeting in Singapore, hugely historic, a
lifetime ago. Then we were worried about the shadows in
the unexpected. Now Here in twenty twenty five, what is
the unexpected? You're studying at Berkeley. What's the surprise out
(13:48):
there that concerns you well?
Speaker 6 (13:51):
I think that the markets have responded to the ninety
day pause in the UK deal by thinking that the
period of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you
said before, a few minutes ago. Tom, the uncertainty and
the spike in the VIX continue. We haven't really seen
that spill over into distress in financial markets, but I
(14:15):
think that distress could be coming. I think what's happening
in the cryptosphere could spill over and to mainstream financial markets.
There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized yet.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
As very King Green looks at the long term, we
must consider the data check is Professor Eiching Green states
of vix's out now four big figures twenty four point
five four, the SPX futures in negative ninety three now
futures negative six twenty six, and dollars weaker. Barry a
privileged to bring you, Damien SaaS Hour of Bloomberg Intelligence,
(14:48):
truly expert on the interior dynamics of em currencies, Damien.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Professor Eicken Green, you discussed this world of international capital mobility,
and you know you talk about US its ability to
run trade deficits in order to provide foreign reserves to
the rest of the world. You know, just how much
longer can it continue to do that? I mean, and
what other currency might serve that role if the dollar
is no longer you know, as you rightly point out,
(15:15):
the world reserve currency.
Speaker 6 (15:18):
We're accelerating toward the cliff where the appetite for US
free use abroad begins to cry up. I think we're
already seeing hints of that in financial markets, at which
point there will be a reluctance to acquire and hold
and use dollars by secral banks and other investors around
the world. But the answer to your second question, Damien,
(15:40):
who can step up to provide that international liquidity if
not the United States? The answer for the moment is
no one. That there aren't enough high quality eurosecurities available
to the rest of the world. China is still a
small player financially, despite all the chatter about it growing role.
(16:02):
Non traditional reserve currencies like the Aussie dollar and the
Canadian dollar too small to make a difference. So I
think we're staring down into the abyss of a global
liquidity shortage.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
Professor I can Green. The dollar bulls would argue that
the US military comes into play when you're thinking about
the dollars reserve status. Talk to us about you know,
the fact that the last seventy five years we've been
free of war, there's been global financial security in the
form of dollar reserve assets. Talk to us about the
case for dollar bulls. Does it still hold up well?
Speaker 6 (16:31):
For the last seventy five years, our alliance partners have
held and used dollars, partly as a show of thanks
of goodwill, partly because they believe the US will be
a reliable steward of their balances. Those alliances have been
called into question. When and whether the US military will
be deployed to defend our security partners is now up
(16:56):
in the air, so is the appetite for dollars.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Agreeing with us at Berkeley here on Global FX, I'm
going to turn to the US debt and deficit here
in a moment off of his iconic twenty twenty one
book on our Public Debt. But Barry, first, I have
to ask you, and I'm not going to say what's
a question you would ask god Besson. It's far beneath
you to act like a journalist. If you were at
(17:20):
the White House today or at Treasury, if you were
sitting there with a Secretary Treasury, what advice would you
give him? Given the president that he serves well.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
Number one definitively takes some of the more hair brained
ideas off the table, taxing foreign holdings of US securities.
Number two get more serious about addressing the deficit problem,
which is getting worse rather than better. And number three
camp down the uncertainty around crede policy.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
The golden fetters, globalizing cap I love Hall of Mirrors,
the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the uses and misuses
of history. But the book very I can greed to
stop me cold complete tangent. I thought in defense of
public debt. Everyone of every political persuasion is apoplectic right now.
(18:19):
It's the very log linear growth of our deficit and
our debt. Are we becoming japan Like? Are we reaching
a tipping point of too much debt, too much interest expense?
Speaker 6 (18:33):
Yes, the tipping point is coming. That book made the
point that public debt can be useful in an emergency,
in a financial crisis, in a war, in a pandemic,
when you have to mobilize all available resources. But when
the emergency passes, you want to restore the government's capacity
to borrow in the future. And we did the first part.
(18:55):
We did not do the second.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Professor I can Green, my chief USA interest rate strategists,
Ira Jersey, and we were just talking, and he discusses
this new class of bond vigilantes that they're taking the reins,
that they're rebuking fiscal large ass that the psychology of
global government bond investors has shifted, and rather abruptly at that.
What are your thoughts there?
Speaker 6 (19:16):
I think your interest rate strategists are exactly right. I
think the US government has had a lot of leewaight
incur debt to run deficits, the backdrop being that it
is going to remain financially reliable and prudent in the
(19:37):
longer run, and there is no evidence of the latter.
There is no strategy for stabilizing the debt to GDP
ratio and bringing down the deficits. So I think investors
are really looking at treasuries in a very different way
than they have in the past.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Professor Aiki, We've got to move to the markets of
folks who are blowing up the show. Given everything we see,
I can grieve driving the vix out to a five
handle twenty five point one four, the dowdown six hundred
and thirty points. Barry Ike and Green and Ken Rogoff
mentions you in my book of the Summer our dollar
your problem. He mentions Ike and Green, like two thirds
(20:14):
of the way through the book, where did our moral
compass go, the calvinistic heritage of this nation to at
least try to pay our bills in God's name? Barry,
Ike and Green, where did that drift to? Well?
Speaker 6 (20:32):
I think it's drifted into the land of non facts,
where everyone can any everyone can assert what they want
about the state of the national finances. The Congressional Budget Office,
which states the truth or the closest to reality we have,
doesn't carry the weight on Capitol Hill or in the
(20:54):
White House that it deserves that it should.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Verry, I can mean honored to have you today. Thank
you so much for joining Bloomberg, and we are fortunate
to have you on this today of market crisis. Professor
Eichingreen at the University of California at Berkeley.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2 (21:26):
We try to find a sense of calm with Emily Rowland.
She agreed to come on if I wouldn't mention the
Boston Red Sox, where thrilled she could join us from
the John Hancock Company. This morning, Emily, the panic here
over the weekend at kitchens at barbecues is going to
be sell US big stocks like Tariff, Layden, Apple. You disagree.
Speaker 7 (21:50):
You know, when we think about what's going on with
markets right now, Tom, investors are really trading on feelings
and not facts. This is a sentiment driven market, whether
it's sell everything US, whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But
when you look underneath the hood at the facts, earnings
growth most importantly to US and the US. We just
(22:11):
saw Q one earnings come in at fourteen percent. Nine
percent is what analysts are penciling in for the year.
You look over at Europe, earnings growth this quarter was
negative eight percent, and analysts are revising down earnings estimates
to around three percent in Europe. You look at the front,
the macro backdrop, and the United States growth is holding
(22:32):
in the city economic Surprise index is actually perking up.
The hard data is coming in positive. We're seeing the
opposite happen in Europe as their data is coming in.
Weaker growth is struggling overseas. Yet you've seen this massive
capital rotation out of the US into Europe. We would
fade it and use those proceeds to invest in the
(22:54):
United States.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
It's so opposite. So many of the actually think she
actually thinks the reds sucks are going to win ten
in a row in August.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
You know, And I got to ask you, and I
just said it before. Two to three cuts are pricing
before the end of the year by the Fed. And
the Fed's made no secret about its asymmetric view on
policy rates and inflation. Is there a possibility that the
Fed can move more aggressively before the end of this year.
Speaker 7 (23:16):
Well, I probably not, especially given some of the fiscal
developments that we've seen. I think one reason that the
bond market is repriced for fewer rate cuts this year
is because now we may have this fiscal thrust coming
through as a result of this big, beautiful bill that's
potentially coming through Washington. So the more fiscal stimulus you
need to do, are that your plan to do the
(23:37):
less monetary policy stimulus that you need to do. So
we're seeing a big shift on that front, and I
think that probably pushes out the FED to later in.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
The year and the big beautiful Bill. Margaret Brennan of
CBS still scheduled to be with us at the top
of the nine o'clock. Our Craig Moffatt on Apple will
be with us. He's been canscious. Mike Green will join us.
Some simplified asset management as well. Damien, please to Emily.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
Rowland, Emily, US GDP growth expectations have fallen off a cliff.
I mean talking looking just at Q four our year
over year, I mean, my goodness, I mean it just
fell off a cliff here. And so I'm just curious
to hear your thoughts about the dollar. I mean, what
are your thoughts on the dollar here? I mean, what
are you guys seeing on a forward basis? I mean,
is the end of the dollar's hege money at risk here?
Speaker 7 (24:22):
No, we don't believe in the death of the US dollar.
That narrative does tend to resurface every few years. The
dollars still the world's reserve currency. We've seen this really
notable dynamic where yields have backed up at the same
time that the dollars weekend. That almost never happens, and
I think it is a result of the sentiment around
sell everything America.
Speaker 5 (24:42):
With the US.
Speaker 7 (24:43):
I'm not saying we're great, but we're sort of the
cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry. From an economic growth
perspective here, that should actually bring a flood of dollars
onto our shores. Other central banks are cutting the US
is on hold for now. All of those traditional dynamics
that we look at suggest that the dollar should not
be experiencing weakness, and that line.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
That optimism is like what you would hear from Bill Gross,
the founder of PIMCO. He used to love to talk
about the cleaner shirt. And the other thing I would say,
Emily to your Boston college is one Pte Lynch at
Fidelity years ago said you have to stay the course,
explained people petrified or bewildered or confused, how to not
(25:26):
panic and take the four to oh one k to cash.
Speaker 7 (25:30):
It's so important. Peter Lynch lives right down the street
from me here, and another great investor, of course, Warren Buffett,
said recently, just don't bet against America. When you think
about the incredible innovation that these companies in the United
States have. We have a massive overweight to high quality companies.
A lot of those are found in the US technology space.
(25:51):
And when we think about what really drives markets over time,
I think one of the most important things to remember
is stock prices follow profit. We are investing in companies,
not countries, and we want to think about where can
you find that earnings growth engine. And as we look
across the world, we're still finding in the US. Yes,
(26:11):
sentiment can be a powerful force over time. Momentum can
be a powerful force over short periods of time. We
do not use momentum and sentiment in our investment process.
We use cycle analysis, we use fundamental analysis, and right
now we want to gravitate to those high quality companies,
most of them are found in the United States.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Emily Roland, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Colock Play, and
Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. You can also
watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on
the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 6 (26:51):
We get a.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Huge response when Joel Lavorgna joins us. There's just no
other way. Thank you so much for thanking time this morning. Short,
did you speak to the president last night?
Speaker 5 (27:02):
I have not.
Speaker 8 (27:03):
No, I haven't, but thank you for having me, and.
Speaker 5 (27:07):
We have a lot to talk about.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
We have a lot to talk about. Help me here,
Joe Lavorna, with the presumption of our global Wall Street
listeners worldwide across this nation, that Besson will walk back
the president's enthusiasms. Is that a strategy.
Speaker 8 (27:25):
The president has a negotiating strategy which I would argue
has been largely successful.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
We probably will disagree on this.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Ratings folks not known CNN had this. Thank you CNN.
His ratings have gone up in the last ten days.
Speaker 8 (27:39):
Well, I'll actually you know me, well, I will say
something else. If you look at the polling Tom polling
that's been good in sixteen, twenty and twenty four take
Rafts Mussin for example, Pauling as of last night had
the economy moving in the right direction at its highest
reading in sixteen years.
Speaker 5 (27:56):
So there's a lot of good stuff here.
Speaker 8 (27:58):
So I don't think there's a you cried, Well, this
is a negotiation and the intent and desire is to
read on shore and manufacturing high value out of here,
So that will ultimately be the President's the president's decision,
and Secretary Best will follow that.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Joe, Damian wants to get inbod I got to follow
that up as well. So we have a negotiating tactic
the Secretary Treasure with David Weston here in exactly two hours.
And then do you just presume there'll be some make
nice nice delay where we get a sixty day ninety
day delay.
Speaker 8 (28:28):
Maybe, or there'll be a deal tom there'll be a
deal that come on. Well, let me say a framework,
because people talked about the deals.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
I got all this pushback to President's not going to pivot.
You can't get a deal done. It's a framework for
a discussion.
Speaker 8 (28:42):
I'm optimistic that it will be resolved in the US's advantage.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Should I define framework for you? A framework is where
you're in negotiations to get afterthought, to empty the dishwasher.
That's what a framework is.
Speaker 4 (28:53):
Joe, I'd love to get your opinion on the dollar
as the world reserve currency. And the reason I ask
it is this. I actually had long been a proponent
of the thing that you know, the dollar. It's almost
a bad thing for the Fed. It almost makes the
Fed have to make decisions that are not necessarily based
on the US economy alone, but the rest of the
world writ large because of the dollars influenced the world's
reserve currency. Now that it seems to be and again
(29:14):
I'm not calling for the end of king dollar, but
you know, some of the shine seems to be rubbing
off of it. Here do we think does the president
does the administration think that a weaker dollar is good
for America?
Speaker 8 (29:23):
The administration does not want to lose this reserve status,
and certain instances the dollar is artificially high visa these
certain countries, but in general no. I think if strong
dollar is reflective of the fact the US is basically
the strongest industrial economy in the world from a GDP perspective. Perspective, however,
your Bloomberg audience and Tom Kean will love this. The
problem with the FED is this abundant reserve approach to
(29:45):
operating monetary policy.
Speaker 5 (29:46):
We've got abundant reserves.
Speaker 8 (29:47):
I would move away from that and go back to
the older system with the balance sheets smaller.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Joeli Varna with this with SMBC Nico Securities part of
the Sumatoma Group of Japan, I can talk about Jamands
here in with this Damien Sasa this morning. Welcome across
the nation. The doubt negative. My eyes are family, Damon, Yeah,
I think it's negative three thirty seven.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
Right now, DJ, I mean we have to ask you
about Japan, the boj's role in the global financial system,
the systemic risk of it being the net creditor to
the rest of the world. And you know now what
we're seeing with inflation ticking up in Japan. Do you
think there's any real risk that a lot of that
those offshore holdings are going to need to be repatriated
on shore now now?
Speaker 8 (30:25):
And you don't see I mean, because well we were
worried about Taiwan a few weeks ago. It's a nice
Bloomberg article. I give you guys a plug. And how
long did that last? There was issues last summer, was
on why we had a big move in the nick
I and JG B eials. By the way, j G
B eyals had been leading this recent rise higher, but
it's also been globally, which is also like want to
push back against the narrative that the market's selling off.
By the way, the market's exactly where it was a
(30:46):
week ago before the Moody's downgrade.
Speaker 5 (30:49):
The surprise downgrade.
Speaker 8 (30:50):
But this isn't about the budget being big and causing
the market to sell off. So again the narrative I
think is incorrect. But no, I'm not worried about systemic issues.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
And why are we worried about the budget then.
Speaker 8 (31:00):
Because that's just that's just the easy, low hanging fruit,
simple narrative that people don't really have to think.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Center GDP, I mean we on equivalent debt and deficit.
Speaker 8 (31:10):
The well, the thing is the numbers that are coming
from CBO. Moodies apparently use CBO's numbers. Citizens sure it
can be for a responsible budget. They all use the
same numbers. I don't think they're correct. I mentioned this
maybe the last time in that's all.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
The present, that CEO's data is not correct.
Speaker 8 (31:25):
That the forecasts are unbelievably pessimistic assuming one point eight
percent GDP growth the next ten years.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
So as Malpass would say, it's the growthiness that's not
in there. Granted you can't predict the growthiness, but you're
saying we're going to have a sustained growth rate to
get us through.
Speaker 8 (31:42):
Well, let's say let's say we had growth at say
two and a half percent. That's I think we could
be three, but let's say two and a half. That's
an extra two trillion revenue to tariffs. They're going to
raise two hundred billion this year. That's going to account
for something over the next handful of years that won't
even be in the numbers because it's not part of
the official scoring.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
I'm going to say, everybody listening, whatever your political persuasion,
this is a really, really valid study away from the
debt gloom. Do you grow your way out of the
problem that's worked for a few decades to.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
Say it worked in the late nineties.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, Damien.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Well Joe, I mean I have to ask you about
the disconnect between the alt from the hard data here
in the US and whether or not you think there's
you know, something coming around the next corner. Do you
know what I'm saying there? I mean, I know, this
US economy has been exceptional, it really has been. I
know it's resilient, it really has been. Earnings have been
super resilient, and I agree with all of it, and
it can continue. But I mean, you know the whispers
that the hard data is going to catch up to
(32:37):
this drop in sentiment. I mean, do you believe in
that or do we have it reversed? I mean it's
the yeah, so I would say. So what I did
is I went back and looked.
Speaker 8 (32:44):
Because the weak data was telling us recession in twenty
two and twenty three, it didn't happen. And then some
of the data recently has suggested the same. I remember that,
so of course, so I what I did is I
went back to look, let's look at some of the harder,
high frequency data. How did that perform in twenty two
and twenty three. What's it look like now? Is saying recession?
No change to our sales are strong, motor vehicle gasoline
demand is strong.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
We've heard this joke.
Speaker 5 (33:04):
Yes, you've heard this claim. So no, I don't.
Speaker 8 (33:09):
The hard data will turn sorry the week data.
Speaker 5 (33:13):
The soft data rather will turn up. Hard data will
stay firm.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
On a Friday for Global Wall Street, a great lineup
in the back half of our Joelivorna with us with
SNBC Nico.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
With Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 9 (33:40):
The newspapers, Okay, let's switch gears.
Speaker 8 (33:43):
Totally.
Speaker 9 (33:44):
Yeah, this one's in the Wall Street Journal. So you guys,
we've heard a lot of stories about college players making
big money playing sports like basketball, football, right, but not
sports like golf, tennis. Softball is a big one.
Speaker 6 (33:57):
Okay.
Speaker 9 (33:57):
We now have softball's first million dollar pitcher.
Speaker 6 (34:01):
Wow getting paid.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
She's getting million?
Speaker 5 (34:04):
No, I wish, but it could.
Speaker 9 (34:06):
Be the last one. So let me get so. Her
name is Niejerray Kennedy. I hope I'm not mispronouncing that.
I'm sorry if I am. She was pitching for Stanford
but transferred to Texas Tech, who's booster collective paid her
one million dollars.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
I believe.
Speaker 9 (34:22):
But here's it could be the last because there's this
new set of rules that could restrict how much boosters
can pay college athletes. It's likely to come in the
coming days, but it's for for low priles profile sports.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Bloomberg Business Stores. Damian comment on this, With all the
work you do with Scarlett.
Speaker 4 (34:39):
The average NBA WNBA player gets paid one hundred and
forty seven and fifty dollars a year. That's a w
NBA professional basketball player. And you're telling me this college
wonderful softball.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Tillion dollars just tied into Vanderbilt in Miami. Do you
see name image like this school like Vanderbilt absolutely everywhere.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
I mean, the rumors are Cooper Flagg got paid, you know,
a couple million dollars to play for Duke last year.
You know, we got get Paul Sweeni back in here.
But you know that's that's what you're up, the endorsement kind.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Of we're going to interrupt newspapers right now. Lisa, you're
living this in real time for our audience across this nation.
You have a gifted daughter. You're living it. Do you
think this trickles down from ten famous schools like Texas
Tech and Stanford to one hundred and two hundred and
three hundred other schools.
Speaker 9 (35:27):
I've just seen like the pressure on the young kids,
like all the pressure they have now, like oh, I
have to perform, Like I got to post this on
social media.
Speaker 5 (35:35):
I gotta post this.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
You have a batting in your backyard?
Speaker 5 (35:38):
I do, yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker 9 (35:42):
All the extra coaching sessions.
Speaker 8 (35:44):
Yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker 9 (35:46):
Okay, happy Hour, It's Friday, right, Okay, memorial.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
Were coming up? Continue?
Speaker 9 (35:50):
Okay, So in these stories of people drinking less more,
people ordering mocktails, Okay, that's the hot new thing. But
a lot of those people are starting to go plane.
There's just too much. They're paying fifteen dollars for juice
and soda and sero, and they're saying, what's going on?
And I get it because we go to the bar,
the restaurant and I order a mocktail for my daughter.
(36:11):
I'm paid fifteen dollars for it. My drink costs lesson
and had alcohol in it.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (36:16):
I don't think my wife would like me very much
if I participated and drive you liar sober October? Are
you really doing? I don't think she'd be able to
put up with me.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Can slip one more? I can?
Speaker 5 (36:24):
Okay.
Speaker 9 (36:25):
So the Mission Impossible Final Reckoning that comes out today,
too big, you know, movie weekend for the holidays. Tom
Cruise actually really did get an aircraft carrier for the mission.
The Pentagon granted him his crew access to the USS
George H. W.
Speaker 5 (36:39):
Bush.
Speaker 9 (36:40):
For the movie, they spend like three days on it,
so it's a really incredible.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter, and on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the bloom Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(37:04):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Joining us now we start struggling. A really wonderful Friday
with Sebastian Page had a global multi asset share of
Asset Allocation Steering Committee. Tro Price acclaimed author the best
book on diversification I've seen in his new book is
out as well, The Psychology of Leadership. I want to
go to Jain's Nordvik. Damien came walking and screaming about
(00:49):
with exante data and the single sentence from ends into
the weekend is strategic shifts are in motion. What's in
motions page?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
You know, the last forty eight hours, it's about the
thirty year bond and it's gone up above five percent.
I think that's a lot of hoopla about not much.
If I look at the long run chart, you know,
like Damien, it's a long weekend. I'm actually looking at
charts and I'm interested.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
If look at the.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Long run chart of the thirty year yield, it's actually
not that far from five percent.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Right, Well, I mean look for me, I think Ira
Josie said it best our us SO chief rate strategist.
He said, you know, the mark to market loss of
putting a negative carried position on the thirty year. I mean,
if you think thirty years are going to go up
on austerity or whatever you're you know, whatever you're thinking.
You know, it's just it's not a profitable prese mean,
the negative tract.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
This is great, But the real issue is why is
the dollar tanking? You know, on the what does trow
price say about a new structural week dollar?
Speaker 3 (01:52):
So short term on our platform, we're C two on
the dollars. C two means we're actually bullish short term
on the dollar. But Tom, this is the question of
the hour because if you look at April right by
the way, the stock market was flat in April, or
close to flat, if you can believe it, despite what
happened during the month. But if you look at what's
been happening with the dollar, it's unusual. Because economic theory
(02:15):
will tell you when you put tariffs on the best
way for the exporting country to offset them is to
devalue their currency, so you cheapen their goods to make
up for the tariff that is paid at the quarter.
The market work, and for a while it looked like
economic theory was working and the dollar should be stronger.
But then it's not behaving that way. And second thing
(02:36):
is even in the middle of selloffs I think April, third,
and fourth and huge market volatility, as Tom would say,
you know on the Vick spikes, Well the dollar was
not necessarily the safe haven in all this volatility.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Well, Tom, I'm disappointed, and I'll tell you why, because
Sebastian came in this morning and it didn't bring in
LinkedIn sensation daughter Olivia, and you know, I'm disappointed that
she's not here, by the way, I know it's early.
First sherobably a school, but you know, Sebastian, you're going
to probably take Olivia to Europe. And I know one
of your trade calls right now is you're bullish on
international act I'm sorry, really European equities, let's be clear here,
and it's not because of the value component there. It's
(03:12):
because of the momentum of the dollar cell off.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So talk to us a little bit about that.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
On a month of a month or quarter of Is
there some longevity to the styllar weakness on a quarter
of a quarter basis.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
Here Damien love that question. Love even more of the
reference to our financial education video that I've been doing
with my daughter. They're all over LinkedIn loving have a look.
She's really interested about compound interests. By the way, behind
the scenes, she still wants to spend more than she
probably should. Look on Europe, we're long European equities. I
think this is a shorter term view for US six
(03:44):
to twelve months. Longer term. We're not in the camp.
I'm not in the camp of this is the end
of US exceptionalism. US tech is a force to.
Speaker 5 (03:53):
Be reckoned with.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
But right now there's still a valuation advantage for European equities,
even if you neutralize the sector effect. You have stimulus,
you have dovish central banks. You have a banking sector
that's doing pretty well now they've escaped.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
What kind of European stocks I mean, are we buying
Nesle or we buying BMP Perry book.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
So our stock pickers those that implement our slcation strategy,
like industrial healthcare and banks that banks are at one
time book one times book value. Before the financial crisis
in Europe there were two times book value. They struggled
limping out of the financial crisis and with negative interest rates,
that's not good for banks. Now we're in a positive
(04:37):
interest rate environment, they're still trending around one times book value.
So we like those.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
So, Tom, you see what Impassion's done here. He's taken
what is effectively a value call, but he's wrapped it
up in a big fat momentum swing here in euro dollargy.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
I agree that right back to what you were saying,
I mean, it's a huge gamble about the momentum.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
I mean it's it's not right now. I mean, look
at the euro relative to and by the way, I
mean it's on the i of the beholder, right. And
if you look at emerging market currencies, for example, nineteen
of twenty one of our versus you know, the dollar
this year, but only three are up versus the Euro
this year, So you're really leaning into the factor, at
least you know your your currency strategist are leaning into
the fact that you know there may be a little
(05:14):
bit of like again, some legs to this euro strength here,
just because it's the best of the of the rest.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
I guess well Themian Bloomberg Surveillance Radio is the only
show where I can get a little bit more quantitative
and theoretical. That's why Tom is my absolute favorite host
and anchor.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Are okay you non linear right now?
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well, a lot of things are nonlinear in markets. Markets
are more nonlinear than they've been historically. If you look
at tails on both sides, the left side and the
right side, positive and negative. But what it's going to
say is valuation and momentum when they align together. Yes,
historically that is a much stronger signal than either signal
(05:54):
working alone, and that's been studied across markets.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
We welcome all of you across the nation. Good morning
on Serious XM. I was lectured, did an event with Pimco.
It's a small startup money on the West coast. Sebastian
page of t row Price. How about those orioles that
endorsements really working out this year? Anyways, folks, good morning
across this Memorial Day nation. Damien Sassar and Time, can
(06:20):
we welcome you. I can't say enough on a sleepy
Friday as you get into the weekend, the markets are
not sleepy the dollar dynamics right now are extraordinary. Berry
King Green and Damien Sasa are in the eight o'clock
hour that got Ducky bumps over that on YouTube. Subscribe
to Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for that, just growing each
(06:40):
in every day. Damien sas are to Sebastian.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Page, well, I just think it's about growth expectations here
in the US, right, I mean, they really are falling.
I mean, and so you know, the question is how
far do they go or how far before the FED
catches up and wakes up to this. So I'm just
curious to hear what you know. Your great expectations are
for the great Fed expectations are sorry through the end
of this year, but more importantly in the first half
of now next year. It's just how deep do we
think the terminal FED funds rate can go?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You have to account for the possibility of an upside
surprise and inflation when you answer that question. It's not
just about growth. That's why it's tough to be the FED.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Right now, that's right, I'm going to stop the show, folks.
I'm interviewing Damian Sassar and Sebastian Page. Horse and cart
does inflation go up as the cart because the horse
is the dollar weaker, the debt and the deficit bigger.
How's that sequence work to get higher inflation.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
Well, I'll hit that first, And it really comes down
to whether the hard data catches up to the soft
data and the resilience of the US economy and whether
or not this can all play through. And I don't
think we've really gotten a whiff of what a fourteen
and a half percent effective tariff rate, because that's what
we're talking about exxanthy right if you talk about China
forty percent plus the sectoral and that's up.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
From two and a half percent from three to fourteen, right, right.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
So I mean like, I don't I don't know what
that looks like, and I don't know what this US
economy looks like in that environment, and so what the
market I guess if I had to get asymmetric on you,
I think the asymmetry is to deeper cuts.
Speaker 5 (08:04):
You know when they do.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Come Sebastian, Damian, Sebastian, I'll get they're both the great
tie up in Quebec. Sebastian, when when I did Quebec
go for Kearney, they sort of did. Didn't that Edmonton?
They did? Good morning Prime Minister Kearney Sebastian. Very importantly
here do the Americans get more inflation because of what
(08:27):
we see now in currencies and with the Build Better
America BBB bill and all.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's part of it on imports. So you're today we're
running at two point four percent inflation. If you analyze
the monthly prints, that's not too bad. The one year
swap is looking at three point three. So the expectation
is that inflation's coming up. I think there's a risk
to the upside because of commodities. Some commodities are trending up,
(08:52):
precious metals and soft commodities because of wages.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
About thirty three dollars.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Just the towers alone, right, it's you know, you would
know better than I. Just what is the impact of
these terror I mean, what is it going to do
to inflation? To prices here? I mean Walmart cost conounts,
is earnings next week? I mean we're not going to
get any look, but they're certainly going to, you know,
talk around some of that stuff. And it's just going
to be interesting to see you right in the especially
the input prices I mean and you know, all that
stuff is starting to trend to act.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Okay, So Tom, this is like we're having our mini
asset allocation committee here, because in our ass location committee
we have bulls and bears, and we have debate, and
now we're neutral or close to neutral between stocks and bonds.
But now Damien is sounding a bit bearish here, so
I'm going to give Devil's advocate the other side of it.
Earnings growing thirteen percent this quarter relative to the same
(09:40):
quarter last year. The FED more interested in cutting than hiking,
and growth, yes, is slowing, but most of it is
in the soft data. There's been a massive drop in
the soft data. But if you want to look at
one data point on hard data, I would look at claims,
and claims are still in the low two hundreds. People
are not getting fired, right.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
We've heard this this week. I really can't say enough,
folks about the anecdote that we see that America is
vibrant and busy. At least the upper third of people
consuming is they can. There's a wonderful book out now,
The Psychology of Leadership by Sebastian Page. This comes after
his tour de force on All the Traps and pitfalls
(10:23):
of diversification for parents at home falling apart because the
Brady kids are getting ready for summer. What is the
psychology of leadership for parents to get through this summer
with teenagers?
Speaker 3 (10:37):
You know I have two teenagers, so that question hits home.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Tom. I'll say to that question, I'll.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Say this, people underestimate how important it is to have
long term goals, to think long terms. And I think
that applies to the younger.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
You got to give your kids the gift.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Of long term, the long term goal and thinking long
term and and guiding your actions day to day based
on what you're trying to do long term.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Is it okay that the older teenager walks in, says
nothing and closes the bedroom door discuss.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
I mean, for me and my experiences, when you come
down to the kitchen and your daughter's they're eating, and
I say, oh, hey, what you eat and then she
goes stop badgaming me and she just runs out the door.
So I understand what you're talking about. And she's beautiful anyway,
don't get me started. But we all have our experiences there.
I think we have to take this back to the
job market, because you make a really, really really good point.
What will it takes a bashing page for payrolls to
(11:35):
come off here in the US? I mean what I
mean what and when? I mean like, when do you
if it were going to happen and we had to
play that scenario out, what should we be looking for?
Speaker 5 (11:43):
What are the first indicators there?
Speaker 3 (11:45):
So of the lagging labor market indicators, the least lagging
is the claims. So I would look at claims and
right now they're holding in.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Do you have a statistic on claims? Was a tip point?
Is it two sixty to eighty?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
Look the long run app riche on claims is three fifty.
I know, so they can go higher. They can go higher,
But that is potentially the least lagging of the lagging
labor marketing. Edvans and oilers bullish on the Oilers, Sebastian
page of Quebec and sure book, thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
He is the t road price.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Barry King Green at Berkeley Professor Ike and Green, thank
you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. Barry, I've
got to go back to you start just staying in France,
and you must read for any kid getting into the game.
Exorbitant privilege is Donald Trump furtthering away. Our exorbitant privilege.
Speaker 6 (13:00):
Is I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since
Liberation Day. It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly
than before. I've long thought that the dollar would have
to share the international stage with other currencies. I didn't
think that would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
What is so important here, Barry, is a legacy back
to the nineties of the unexpected. I was with you
at a G seven meeting in Singapore, hugely historic, a
lifetime ago. Then we were worried about the shadows in
the unexpected. Now Here in twenty twenty five, what is
the unexpected? You're studying at Berkeley. What's the surprise out
(13:48):
there that concerns you well?
Speaker 6 (13:51):
I think that the markets have responded to the ninety
day pause in the UK deal by thinking that the
period of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you
said before, a few minutes ago. Tom, the uncertainty and
the spike in the VIX continue. We haven't really seen
that spill over into distress in financial markets, but I
(14:15):
think that distress could be coming. I think what's happening
in the cryptosphere could spill over and to mainstream financial markets.
There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized yet.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
As very King Green looks at the long term, we
must consider the data check is Professor Eiching Green states
of vix's out now four big figures twenty four point
five four, the SPX futures in negative ninety three now
futures negative six twenty six, and dollars weaker. Barry a
privileged to bring you, Damien SaaS Hour of Bloomberg Intelligence,
(14:48):
truly expert on the interior dynamics of em currencies, Damien.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Professor Eicken Green, you discussed this world of international capital mobility,
and you know you talk about US its ability to
run trade deficits in order to provide foreign reserves to
the rest of the world. You know, just how much
longer can it continue to do that? I mean, and
what other currency might serve that role if the dollar
is no longer you know, as you rightly point out,
(15:15):
the world reserve currency.
Speaker 6 (15:18):
We're accelerating toward the cliff where the appetite for US
free use abroad begins to cry up. I think we're
already seeing hints of that in financial markets, at which
point there will be a reluctance to acquire and hold
and use dollars by secral banks and other investors around
the world. But the answer to your second question, Damien,
(15:40):
who can step up to provide that international liquidity if
not the United States? The answer for the moment is
no one. That there aren't enough high quality eurosecurities available
to the rest of the world. China is still a
small player financially, despite all the chatter about it growing role.
(16:02):
Non traditional reserve currencies like the Aussie dollar and the
Canadian dollar too small to make a difference. So I
think we're staring down into the abyss of a global
liquidity shortage.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
Professor I can Green. The dollar bulls would argue that
the US military comes into play when you're thinking about
the dollars reserve status. Talk to us about you know,
the fact that the last seventy five years we've been
free of war, there's been global financial security in the
form of dollar reserve assets. Talk to us about the
case for dollar bulls. Does it still hold up well?
Speaker 6 (16:31):
For the last seventy five years, our alliance partners have
held and used dollars, partly as a show of thanks
of goodwill, partly because they believe the US will be
a reliable steward of their balances. Those alliances have been
called into question. When and whether the US military will
be deployed to defend our security partners is now up
(16:56):
in the air, so is the appetite for dollars.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Agreeing with us at Berkeley here on Global FX, I'm
going to turn to the US debt and deficit here
in a moment off of his iconic twenty twenty one
book on our Public Debt. But Barry, first, I have
to ask you, and I'm not going to say what's
a question you would ask god Besson. It's far beneath
you to act like a journalist. If you were at
(17:20):
the White House today or at Treasury, if you were
sitting there with a Secretary Treasury, what advice would you
give him? Given the president that he serves well.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
Number one definitively takes some of the more hair brained
ideas off the table, taxing foreign holdings of US securities.
Number two get more serious about addressing the deficit problem,
which is getting worse rather than better. And number three
camp down the uncertainty around crede policy.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
The golden fetters, globalizing cap I love Hall of Mirrors,
the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the uses and misuses
of history. But the book very I can greed to
stop me cold complete tangent. I thought in defense of
public debt. Everyone of every political persuasion is apoplectic right now.
(18:19):
It's the very log linear growth of our deficit and
our debt. Are we becoming japan Like? Are we reaching
a tipping point of too much debt, too much interest expense?
Speaker 6 (18:33):
Yes, the tipping point is coming. That book made the
point that public debt can be useful in an emergency,
in a financial crisis, in a war, in a pandemic,
when you have to mobilize all available resources. But when
the emergency passes, you want to restore the government's capacity
to borrow in the future. And we did the first part.
(18:55):
We did not do the second.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Professor I can Green, my chief USA interest rate strategists,
Ira Jersey, and we were just talking, and he discusses
this new class of bond vigilantes that they're taking the reins,
that they're rebuking fiscal large ass that the psychology of
global government bond investors has shifted, and rather abruptly at that.
What are your thoughts there?
Speaker 6 (19:16):
I think your interest rate strategists are exactly right. I
think the US government has had a lot of leewaight
incur debt to run deficits, the backdrop being that it
is going to remain financially reliable and prudent in the
(19:37):
longer run, and there is no evidence of the latter.
There is no strategy for stabilizing the debt to GDP
ratio and bringing down the deficits. So I think investors
are really looking at treasuries in a very different way
than they have in the past.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Professor Aiki, We've got to move to the markets of
folks who are blowing up the show. Given everything we see,
I can grieve driving the vix out to a five
handle twenty five point one four, the dowdown six hundred
and thirty points. Barry Ike and Green and Ken Rogoff
mentions you in my book of the Summer our dollar
your problem. He mentions Ike and Green, like two thirds
(20:14):
of the way through the book, where did our moral
compass go, the calvinistic heritage of this nation to at
least try to pay our bills in God's name? Barry,
Ike and Green, where did that drift to? Well?
Speaker 6 (20:32):
I think it's drifted into the land of non facts,
where everyone can any everyone can assert what they want
about the state of the national finances. The Congressional Budget Office,
which states the truth or the closest to reality we have,
doesn't carry the weight on Capitol Hill or in the
(20:54):
White House that it deserves that it should.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Verry, I can mean honored to have you today. Thank
you so much for joining Bloomberg, and we are fortunate
to have you on this today of market crisis. Professor
Eichingreen at the University of California at Berkeley.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
We try to find a sense of calm with Emily Rowland.
She agreed to come on if I wouldn't mention the
Boston Red Sox, where thrilled she could join us from
the John Hancock Company. This morning, Emily, the panic here
over the weekend at kitchens at barbecues is going to
be sell US big stocks like Tariff, Layden, Apple. You disagree.
Speaker 7 (21:50):
You know, when we think about what's going on with
markets right now, Tom, investors are really trading on feelings
and not facts. This is a sentiment driven market, whether
it's sell everything US, whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But
when you look underneath the hood at the facts, earnings
growth most importantly to US and the US. We just
(22:11):
saw Q one earnings come in at fourteen percent. Nine
percent is what analysts are penciling in for the year.
You look over at Europe, earnings growth this quarter was
negative eight percent, and analysts are revising down earnings estimates
to around three percent in Europe. You look at the front,
the macro backdrop, and the United States growth is holding
(22:32):
in the city economic Surprise index is actually perking up.
The hard data is coming in positive. We're seeing the
opposite happen in Europe as their data is coming in.
Weaker growth is struggling overseas. Yet you've seen this massive
capital rotation out of the US into Europe. We would
fade it and use those proceeds to invest in the
(22:54):
United States.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
It's so opposite. So many of the actually think she
actually thinks the reds sucks are going to win ten
in a row in August.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
You know, And I got to ask you, and I
just said it before. Two to three cuts are pricing
before the end of the year by the Fed. And
the Fed's made no secret about its asymmetric view on
policy rates and inflation. Is there a possibility that the
Fed can move more aggressively before the end of this year.
Speaker 7 (23:16):
Well, I probably not, especially given some of the fiscal
developments that we've seen. I think one reason that the
bond market is repriced for fewer rate cuts this year
is because now we may have this fiscal thrust coming
through as a result of this big, beautiful bill that's
potentially coming through Washington. So the more fiscal stimulus you
need to do, are that your plan to do the
(23:37):
less monetary policy stimulus that you need to do. So
we're seeing a big shift on that front, and I
think that probably pushes out the FED to later in.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
The year and the big beautiful Bill. Margaret Brennan of
CBS still scheduled to be with us at the top
of the nine o'clock. Our Craig Moffatt on Apple will
be with us. He's been canscious. Mike Green will join us.
Some simplified asset management as well. Damien, please to Emily.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
Rowland, Emily, US GDP growth expectations have fallen off a cliff.
I mean talking looking just at Q four our year
over year, I mean, my goodness, I mean it just
fell off a cliff here. And so I'm just curious
to hear your thoughts about the dollar. I mean, what
are your thoughts on the dollar here? I mean, what
are you guys seeing on a forward basis? I mean,
is the end of the dollar's hege money at risk here?
Speaker 7 (24:22):
No, we don't believe in the death of the US dollar.
That narrative does tend to resurface every few years. The
dollars still the world's reserve currency. We've seen this really
notable dynamic where yields have backed up at the same
time that the dollars weekend. That almost never happens, and
I think it is a result of the sentiment around
sell everything America.
Speaker 5 (24:42):
With the US.
Speaker 7 (24:43):
I'm not saying we're great, but we're sort of the
cleanest shirt and the dirty laundry. From an economic growth
perspective here, that should actually bring a flood of dollars
onto our shores. Other central banks are cutting the US
is on hold for now. All of those traditional dynamics
that we look at suggest that the dollar should not
be experiencing weakness, and that line.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
That optimism is like what you would hear from Bill Gross,
the founder of PIMCO. He used to love to talk
about the cleaner shirt. And the other thing I would say,
Emily to your Boston college is one Pte Lynch at
Fidelity years ago said you have to stay the course,
explained people petrified or bewildered or confused, how to not
(25:26):
panic and take the four to oh one k to cash.
Speaker 7 (25:30):
It's so important. Peter Lynch lives right down the street
from me here, and another great investor, of course, Warren Buffett,
said recently, just don't bet against America. When you think
about the incredible innovation that these companies in the United
States have. We have a massive overweight to high quality companies.
A lot of those are found in the US technology space.
(25:51):
And when we think about what really drives markets over time,
I think one of the most important things to remember
is stock prices follow profit. We are investing in companies,
not countries, and we want to think about where can
you find that earnings growth engine. And as we look
across the world, we're still finding in the US. Yes,
(26:11):
sentiment can be a powerful force over time. Momentum can
be a powerful force over short periods of time. We
do not use momentum and sentiment in our investment process.
We use cycle analysis, we use fundamental analysis, and right
now we want to gravitate to those high quality companies,
most of them are found in the United States.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Emily Roland, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Colock Play, and
Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. You can also
watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on
the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 6 (26:51):
We get a.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Huge response when Joel Lavorgna joins us. There's just no
other way. Thank you so much for thanking time this morning. Short,
did you speak to the president last night?
Speaker 5 (27:02):
I have not.
Speaker 8 (27:03):
No, I haven't, but thank you for having me, and.
Speaker 5 (27:07):
We have a lot to talk about.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
We have a lot to talk about. Help me here,
Joe Lavorna, with the presumption of our global Wall Street
listeners worldwide across this nation, that Besson will walk back
the president's enthusiasms. Is that a strategy.
Speaker 8 (27:25):
The president has a negotiating strategy which I would argue
has been largely successful.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
We probably will disagree on this.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Ratings folks not known CNN had this. Thank you CNN.
His ratings have gone up in the last ten days.
Speaker 8 (27:39):
Well, I'll actually you know me, well, I will say
something else. If you look at the polling Tom polling
that's been good in sixteen, twenty and twenty four take
Rafts Mussin for example, Pauling as of last night had
the economy moving in the right direction at its highest
reading in sixteen years.
Speaker 5 (27:56):
So there's a lot of good stuff here.
Speaker 8 (27:58):
So I don't think there's a you cried, Well, this
is a negotiation and the intent and desire is to
read on shore and manufacturing high value out of here,
So that will ultimately be the President's the president's decision,
and Secretary Best will follow that.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
Joe, Damian wants to get inbod I got to follow
that up as well. So we have a negotiating tactic
the Secretary Treasure with David Weston here in exactly two hours.
And then do you just presume there'll be some make
nice nice delay where we get a sixty day ninety
day delay.
Speaker 8 (28:28):
Maybe, or there'll be a deal tom there'll be a
deal that come on. Well, let me say a framework,
because people talked about the deals.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
I got all this pushback to President's not going to pivot.
You can't get a deal done. It's a framework for
a discussion.
Speaker 8 (28:42):
I'm optimistic that it will be resolved in the US's advantage.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Should I define framework for you? A framework is where
you're in negotiations to get afterthought, to empty the dishwasher.
That's what a framework is.
Speaker 4 (28:53):
Joe, I'd love to get your opinion on the dollar
as the world reserve currency. And the reason I ask
it is this. I actually had long been a proponent
of the thing that you know, the dollar. It's almost
a bad thing for the Fed. It almost makes the
Fed have to make decisions that are not necessarily based
on the US economy alone, but the rest of the
world writ large because of the dollars influenced the world's
reserve currency. Now that it seems to be and again
(29:14):
I'm not calling for the end of king dollar, but
you know, some of the shine seems to be rubbing
off of it. Here do we think does the president
does the administration think that a weaker dollar is good
for America?
Speaker 8 (29:23):
The administration does not want to lose this reserve status,
and certain instances the dollar is artificially high visa these
certain countries, but in general no. I think if strong
dollar is reflective of the fact the US is basically
the strongest industrial economy in the world from a GDP perspective. Perspective, however,
your Bloomberg audience and Tom Kean will love this. The
problem with the FED is this abundant reserve approach to
(29:45):
operating monetary policy.
Speaker 5 (29:46):
We've got abundant reserves.
Speaker 8 (29:47):
I would move away from that and go back to
the older system with the balance sheets smaller.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Joeli Varna with this with SMBC Nico Securities part of
the Sumatoma Group of Japan, I can talk about Jamands
here in with this Damien Sasa this morning. Welcome across
the nation. The doubt negative. My eyes are family, Damon, Yeah,
I think it's negative three thirty seven.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
Right now, DJ, I mean we have to ask you
about Japan, the boj's role in the global financial system,
the systemic risk of it being the net creditor to
the rest of the world. And you know now what
we're seeing with inflation ticking up in Japan. Do you
think there's any real risk that a lot of that
those offshore holdings are going to need to be repatriated
on shore now now?
Speaker 8 (30:25):
And you don't see I mean, because well we were
worried about Taiwan a few weeks ago. It's a nice
Bloomberg article. I give you guys a plug. And how
long did that last? There was issues last summer, was
on why we had a big move in the nick
I and JG B eials. By the way, j G
B eyals had been leading this recent rise higher, but
it's also been globally, which is also like want to
push back against the narrative that the market's selling off.
By the way, the market's exactly where it was a
(30:46):
week ago before the Moody's downgrade.
Speaker 5 (30:49):
The surprise downgrade.
Speaker 8 (30:50):
But this isn't about the budget being big and causing
the market to sell off. So again the narrative I
think is incorrect. But no, I'm not worried about systemic issues.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
And why are we worried about the budget then.
Speaker 8 (31:00):
Because that's just that's just the easy, low hanging fruit,
simple narrative that people don't really have to think.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Center GDP, I mean we on equivalent debt and deficit.
Speaker 8 (31:10):
The well, the thing is the numbers that are coming
from CBO. Moodies apparently use CBO's numbers. Citizens sure it
can be for a responsible budget. They all use the
same numbers. I don't think they're correct. I mentioned this
maybe the last time in that's all.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
The present, that CEO's data is not correct.
Speaker 8 (31:25):
That the forecasts are unbelievably pessimistic assuming one point eight
percent GDP growth the next ten years.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
So as Malpass would say, it's the growthiness that's not
in there. Granted you can't predict the growthiness, but you're
saying we're going to have a sustained growth rate to
get us through.
Speaker 8 (31:42):
Well, let's say let's say we had growth at say
two and a half percent. That's I think we could
be three, but let's say two and a half. That's
an extra two trillion revenue to tariffs. They're going to
raise two hundred billion this year. That's going to account
for something over the next handful of years that won't
even be in the numbers because it's not part of
the official scoring.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
I'm going to say, everybody listening, whatever your political persuasion,
this is a really, really valid study away from the
debt gloom. Do you grow your way out of the
problem that's worked for a few decades to.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
Say it worked in the late nineties.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Yeah, Damien.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
Well Joe, I mean I have to ask you about
the disconnect between the alt from the hard data here
in the US and whether or not you think there's
you know, something coming around the next corner. Do you
know what I'm saying there? I mean, I know, this
US economy has been exceptional, it really has been. I
know it's resilient, it really has been. Earnings have been
super resilient, and I agree with all of it, and
it can continue. But I mean, you know the whispers
that the hard data is going to catch up to
(32:37):
this drop in sentiment. I mean, do you believe in
that or do we have it reversed? I mean it's
the yeah, so I would say. So what I did
is I went back and looked.
Speaker 8 (32:44):
Because the weak data was telling us recession in twenty
two and twenty three, it didn't happen. And then some
of the data recently has suggested the same. I remember that,
so of course, so I what I did is I
went back to look, let's look at some of the harder,
high frequency data. How did that perform in twenty two
and twenty three. What's it look like now? Is saying recession?
No change to our sales are strong, motor vehicle gasoline
demand is strong.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
We've heard this joke.
Speaker 5 (33:04):
Yes, you've heard this claim. So no, I don't.
Speaker 8 (33:09):
The hard data will turn sorry the week data.
Speaker 5 (33:13):
The soft data rather will turn up. Hard data will
stay firm.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
On a Friday for Global Wall Street, a great lineup
in the back half of our Joelivorna with us with
SNBC Nico.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
With Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 9 (33:40):
The newspapers, Okay, let's switch gears.
Speaker 8 (33:43):
Totally.
Speaker 9 (33:44):
Yeah, this one's in the Wall Street Journal. So you guys,
we've heard a lot of stories about college players making
big money playing sports like basketball, football, right, but not
sports like golf, tennis. Softball is a big one.
Speaker 6 (33:57):
Okay.
Speaker 9 (33:57):
We now have softball's first million dollar pitcher.
Speaker 6 (34:01):
Wow getting paid.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
She's getting million?
Speaker 5 (34:04):
No, I wish, but it could.
Speaker 9 (34:06):
Be the last one. So let me get so. Her
name is Niejerray Kennedy. I hope I'm not mispronouncing that.
I'm sorry if I am. She was pitching for Stanford
but transferred to Texas Tech, who's booster collective paid her
one million dollars.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
I believe.
Speaker 9 (34:22):
But here's it could be the last because there's this
new set of rules that could restrict how much boosters
can pay college athletes. It's likely to come in the
coming days, but it's for for low priles profile sports.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Bloomberg Business Stores. Damian comment on this, With all the
work you do with Scarlett.
Speaker 4 (34:39):
The average NBA WNBA player gets paid one hundred and
forty seven and fifty dollars a year. That's a w
NBA professional basketball player. And you're telling me this college
wonderful softball.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Tillion dollars just tied into Vanderbilt in Miami. Do you
see name image like this school like Vanderbilt absolutely everywhere.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
I mean, the rumors are Cooper Flagg got paid, you know,
a couple million dollars to play for Duke last year.
You know, we got get Paul Sweeni back in here.
But you know that's that's what you're up, the endorsement kind.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Of we're going to interrupt newspapers right now. Lisa, you're
living this in real time for our audience across this nation.
You have a gifted daughter. You're living it. Do you
think this trickles down from ten famous schools like Texas
Tech and Stanford to one hundred and two hundred and
three hundred other schools.
Speaker 9 (35:27):
I've just seen like the pressure on the young kids,
like all the pressure they have now, like oh, I
have to perform, Like I got to post this on
social media.
Speaker 5 (35:35):
I gotta post this.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
You have a batting in your backyard?
Speaker 5 (35:38):
I do, yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker 9 (35:42):
All the extra coaching sessions.
Speaker 8 (35:44):
Yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker 9 (35:46):
Okay, happy Hour, It's Friday, right, Okay, memorial.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
Were coming up? Continue?
Speaker 9 (35:50):
Okay, So in these stories of people drinking less more,
people ordering mocktails, Okay, that's the hot new thing. But
a lot of those people are starting to go plane.
There's just too much. They're paying fifteen dollars for juice
and soda and sero, and they're saying, what's going on?
And I get it because we go to the bar,
the restaurant and I order a mocktail for my daughter.
(36:11):
I'm paid fifteen dollars for it. My drink costs lesson
and had alcohol in it.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (36:16):
I don't think my wife would like me very much
if I participated and drive you liar sober October? Are
you really doing? I don't think she'd be able to
put up with me.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Can slip one more? I can?
Speaker 5 (36:24):
Okay.
Speaker 9 (36:25):
So the Mission Impossible Final Reckoning that comes out today,
too big, you know, movie weekend for the holidays. Tom
Cruise actually really did get an aircraft carrier for the mission.
The Pentagon granted him his crew access to the USS
George H. W.
Speaker 5 (36:39):
Bush.
Speaker 9 (36:40):
For the movie, they spend like three days on it,
so it's a really incredible.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter, and on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the bloom Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(37:04):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
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