Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Barry Eichengreen & Emily Roland

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Barry Eichengreen & Emily Roland.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea to
get you into a Memorial Day weekend, I will be honest,
you slide it on a Friday. Many people are off today.
We're very fortunate we were fully staffed because the world

(00:26):
fell apart in the vicinity of four am and then
seven am. President Trump put out two extraordinary sets of
tweets on Apple computer manufacturing in India, and then, of
course in the European Union. All of us senate around
David Weston's important conversation with a Secretary of Treasury twelve
moonish today. We were so fortunate we made her luck

(00:49):
Berry Eike Green of Berkeley scheduled in his very early
West Coast morning. He is the giant of international economist
Ken Rogoff mentions him in his new book, My Book
of the Summer. Here is Barry Chingreen on the fragile dollar.

Speaker 2 (01:05):
I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since Liberation Day.
It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly than before.
I've long thought that the dollar would have to share
the international stage with other currencies. I didn't think that
would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year I

(01:27):
think that the markets have responded to the ninety day
pause in the UK deal by thinking that the period
of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you said before,
uncertainty and the spike in the Vicks continue. We haven't
really seen that spill over into distress in financial markets,

(01:48):
but I think that distress could be coming. I think
what's happening in the cryptosphere could spill over into mainstream
financial markets. There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
From the University of California at Berkeley, iconic very iik Ingreen.
I will try this weekend to get out a select
set of his books. Exorbitant Privilege was a wonderful short
treatise on the US dollar, and of course his classic
book from decades ago, Golden Fetters, defined the twentieth century

(02:21):
of gold, defining the equity market. What a joy this
morning to speak to Emily Rowland of John Hancock. She
really pushed against a lot of the fears, maybe the
sum of all our fears, if you will, and optimistic
Emily Rowland of John Hancock.

Speaker 3 (02:37):
Investors are really trading on feelings and not facts. This
is a sentiment driven market, whether it's sell everything US,
whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But when you look underneath
the hood at the facts earnings growth most importantly to
US and the US We just saw Q one earnings
come in at fourteen percent. Nine percent is what analysts

(02:58):
are penciling in for the year. You look over at Europe.
Earning's growth this quarter was negative eight percent, and analysts
are revising down earnings estimates to around three percent. In Europe,
you look at the front, the macro backdrop, and the
United States growth is holding in the city economic surprise
index is actually perking up. The hard data is coming

(03:19):
in positive. We're seeing the opposite happen in Europe as
their data is coming in weaker. Growth is struggling overseas.
Yet you've seen this massive capital rotation out of the
US into Europe. We would fade it and use those
proceeds to invest in the United States.

Speaker 1 (03:37):
Emily Roland with a different view there from so many
of hers. She's the strategy at John Hancock really has
been right the last twenty four to thirty six months
about the ability to buy quality and large cap growth
in America. She stays with that theme today right now
in your commute across the nation. Apple Android coming on strong.

(03:58):
Thank you for that one thing I learned this week.
Shout out to PIMCO for a wonderful event earlier this week,
and I learned there Serious XM Channel one one. It's
older technology and people are wedded to it. They like
it a lot. We thank you on Serious XM for
listening every day on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts, and

(04:20):
of course out at YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea