December 10, 2025 • 9 mins
Gold has surged past US$4,000 an ounce in 2025 — its strongest year since the late 1970s.
State Street Investment Management’s Robin Tsui explains why the rally isn’t just about safe-haven demand, but de-dollarisation, central bank buying, and a wave of geopolitical tailwinds. Plus, the outlook: how high gold could realistically climb in 2026.
This is general information only. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au/
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we
ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.
I'm Sean Almer. Twenty twenty five has been Gold's year.
The price of the precious metal saled past the three
thousand USD mark in March, then hit four thousand dollars
an ounce in October. How far can it go? Remember
this is general information only and you should seek advice
(00:27):
before making investment decisions. Robin Suey is the APAC Gold
strategist at State Street Investment Management. Robin, Welcome to Fear
and Greed Q and A.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Hi Sean, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Have you ever seen a run in gold like this one?
And I'm assuming you're going to say no to that,
But does it compared to any other metal?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Well, I've been covering gold for the last fifteen years,
so definitely this year has been If price states at
the current level, goal pricing US does will be up
about sixty percent. It's going to be the best performing
years since not in something nine. So basically we're not
going to get a repeat obviously next year, but we
(01:12):
still remain quite bullish on the current bullmarket cycle. But
if you look at other metals, Yes, if you look
at silver, platinum, those metals has actually outperformed GOAL. But
I think structurally there's more drivers for a sustained GOAL
rally compared to other metals that we current study.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
So just run through. I mean, you know, we talk
about safe haven status et cetera, et cetera, but it
must go much deeper than that.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Well. Historically, yes, I think GOAL has been the choice
for glue invessas as a Heah, there's no doubt since
GFC fifteen years ago, Goal was rally from about seven
hundred US per hounds to about four thousand, two hundred.
But this year particularly, we are sort of seeing some
of the new drivers that's pushing gold prices higher. I
(02:05):
think one of the main reasons has been obviously the
Trump trade tensions. Liberation data has really brought infestus more
into Goal as a way to hatch against potential dollar
weakness dedillarization. I think the client's been talking to in
Asian APAK, some of the asset owners and even central banks.
(02:28):
They are actually thinking about moving some assets into GOAL,
maybe from the US Treasury or US cash because the
theme of dediriization is actually getting more significant this year,
and of course the FED rate cuts that started in September.
The FED had two rate cuts since we're expecting another
(02:50):
rate cut in December. A lower industrate environment tend to
be quite beneficial for goal prices, and if we're throwing
a lot of other factors like dual politics, the risks
of slacklation, potential for autilty, there's actually a lot of
tail winds at the moment to support goal prices and
goal demand. Gold demand surprisingly has not slowed down. In
(03:13):
Q three, we saw a record amount in the goal
back ETFs globally and also quite a strong demand into
gold bars and coins. So despite the rising goal price
environment that we're seeing infestis ranging from institutional, intermediates and retail,
they are still one some exposure in goal and I
(03:34):
think that's something we have not seen that strong in
the past versus this year.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
How important it's been the role of central banks in
the past few years, particularly the Chinese Central Bank.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
It's definitely has been one of the main reasons why
gold price has been doing so well. I think since
twenty twenty two, the central banks, including China the PBOC,
has been ramping up the goal exposure. On average, central
banks now purchase around one thousand tons of GOAL. Pre
twenty twenty two, on average it was around five hundred
(04:08):
tons of GOAL. So basically in the last three years,
central banks has doubled the purchases. The reason beings because
the US sanctioned Russia back in twenty twenty two. That
has triggered some worries about emerging markets central banks, probably
including China as well, that they might need to diversify
the holdings in US currencies, and that's the reason why
(04:33):
gold price has been well supported. Central banks will continue
to be the main support for goal prices, and based
on our conversation this year, we continue to believe that
central banks will continue to ramp up because if you
look at globally some of the emerging markets, central banks
have very low exposure to goal, so rare like a
global investors, they would like to increase more exposure as
(04:56):
a way to diversify it.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Okay, so where are we going with goal prices? Because
everything we've spoken about robin Is suggests that there is
still plenty of demand out there for gold and while
it has come off a little, are you forecasting that
it will go higher next.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Year, So we do have a three I guess scenario
in terms of base case, bookcase, and bare case. Now,
as I suggest before, we're not going to expect another
six percent rise next year. In our base case, we
expect goal price to hit four thousand and five are
(05:34):
US pounds, So if we're looking at the current level
of four thousand and two, it's about eight percent upside
from the current spot prize and that's actually in line
with the historical average of Goal in terms of the
annual gain. So in the last fifty six years, the
annual average gain has to be about nine percent for Goal.
(05:55):
So we are converting back what we think it's our
conservative case. In terms of bookcase. Now we do have
a bookcase which gold price could hit five thousand, but
we sort of need some sort of unknown market factors
or some sort of volatility. So we need a shock
in the equity market, which we have not seen since April.
(06:19):
We probably need some observation of rising fee of slack fation,
which we probably have not seen in the last couple
of six months, and potentially a acceleration of US dollar weakness.
So if the FED decide to cut rates more aggressively
than the market expects, so we expect three rate cuts
(06:40):
next year. But if the new chairman comes in next
year here or she becomes very dubbish on the FED
rate cuts, that's going to put a lot of pressure
on the dollar. So we actually need multiple scenarios to
come in to push the case for gold to hit
five thousand. And when you think about five thousand, it's
about twenty three percent upside from the current spot price,
(07:04):
which actually we saw back in twenty and twenty four
when goal price did rich, it did hit about twenty
five percent return. A bare case, we might see gold
price hitting three thousand and five, and that's sort of
a price a lot of investors actually do like because
there's a lot of clients of ours they would like
(07:24):
to get in at a reasonable price level. So three
dozen fi it's a it's a bare case we expect,
but again that needs multiple I guess reasoning drivers. If
there's a more resigned environment, if the dollar, your stolen
index increases, if there's less demand into Goal, potentially we
can see a bare case scenario. But we feel quite
(07:48):
confident that at three thousand and five to that three
thousand and seven level, there will be many many central
banks that would love to get in, including China and
all other measure market central banks. Because mention markets and
your bank state are place sensitive two prices. So if
the price level do dip to around three thousand and
five US perounds, we do believe that's going to be
(08:10):
a quite a strong supporting level for the gold market.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
So I mean essentially that provides the floor if nothing else,
though your central case scenario is about forty five hundred
at some point next year.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Yes, I think conservatively in our base case four thousand
and five, referring back to the historical average of return,
but we might see some shocks next next year through
the equity market the bond market. If that happens, of course,
we can potentially see what we saw back in April
or May when gold Plas did what's quite well supported
(08:48):
because of the shocks that we saw in the equity market.
So in the base case four thousand and five, in
our bookcase five thousand US per pounds next year.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Robin, thank you for talking to you here, and Greed,
thank you. That was Robin swey Apac gold strategist at
State Street Investment Management. And a reminder to police seek
professional advice before making investment decisions. If you've got something
you'd like to know, then send through your question via LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook,
or at fearangreed dot com. Today you I'm Seanelma and
this is peer and Greed Q and A
Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we
ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.
I'm Sean Almer. Twenty twenty five has been Gold's year.
The price of the precious metal saled past the three
thousand USD mark in March, then hit four thousand dollars
an ounce in October. How far can it go? Remember
this is general information only and you should seek advice
(00:27):
before making investment decisions. Robin Suey is the APAC Gold
strategist at State Street Investment Management. Robin, Welcome to Fear
and Greed Q and A.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Hi Sean, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Have you ever seen a run in gold like this one?
And I'm assuming you're going to say no to that,
But does it compared to any other metal?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Well, I've been covering gold for the last fifteen years,
so definitely this year has been If price states at
the current level, goal pricing US does will be up
about sixty percent. It's going to be the best performing
years since not in something nine. So basically we're not
going to get a repeat obviously next year, but we
(01:12):
still remain quite bullish on the current bullmarket cycle. But
if you look at other metals, Yes, if you look
at silver, platinum, those metals has actually outperformed GOAL. But
I think structurally there's more drivers for a sustained GOAL
rally compared to other metals that we current study.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
So just run through. I mean, you know, we talk
about safe haven status et cetera, et cetera, but it
must go much deeper than that.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Well. Historically, yes, I think GOAL has been the choice
for glue invessas as a Heah, there's no doubt since
GFC fifteen years ago, Goal was rally from about seven
hundred US per hounds to about four thousand, two hundred.
But this year particularly, we are sort of seeing some
of the new drivers that's pushing gold prices higher. I
(02:05):
think one of the main reasons has been obviously the
Trump trade tensions. Liberation data has really brought infestus more
into Goal as a way to hatch against potential dollar
weakness dedillarization. I think the client's been talking to in
Asian APAK, some of the asset owners and even central banks.
(02:28):
They are actually thinking about moving some assets into GOAL,
maybe from the US Treasury or US cash because the
theme of dediriization is actually getting more significant this year,
and of course the FED rate cuts that started in September.
The FED had two rate cuts since we're expecting another
(02:50):
rate cut in December. A lower industrate environment tend to
be quite beneficial for goal prices, and if we're throwing
a lot of other factors like dual politics, the risks
of slacklation, potential for autilty, there's actually a lot of
tail winds at the moment to support goal prices and
goal demand. Gold demand surprisingly has not slowed down. In
(03:13):
Q three, we saw a record amount in the goal
back ETFs globally and also quite a strong demand into
gold bars and coins. So despite the rising goal price
environment that we're seeing infestis ranging from institutional, intermediates and retail,
they are still one some exposure in goal and I
(03:34):
think that's something we have not seen that strong in
the past versus this year.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
How important it's been the role of central banks in
the past few years, particularly the Chinese Central Bank.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
It's definitely has been one of the main reasons why
gold price has been doing so well. I think since
twenty twenty two, the central banks, including China the PBOC,
has been ramping up the goal exposure. On average, central
banks now purchase around one thousand tons of GOAL. Pre
twenty twenty two, on average it was around five hundred
(04:08):
tons of GOAL. So basically in the last three years,
central banks has doubled the purchases. The reason beings because
the US sanctioned Russia back in twenty twenty two. That
has triggered some worries about emerging markets central banks, probably
including China as well, that they might need to diversify
the holdings in US currencies, and that's the reason why
(04:33):
gold price has been well supported. Central banks will continue
to be the main support for goal prices, and based
on our conversation this year, we continue to believe that
central banks will continue to ramp up because if you
look at globally some of the emerging markets, central banks
have very low exposure to goal, so rare like a
global investors, they would like to increase more exposure as
(04:56):
a way to diversify it.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Okay, so where are we going with goal prices? Because
everything we've spoken about robin Is suggests that there is
still plenty of demand out there for gold and while
it has come off a little, are you forecasting that
it will go higher next.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Year, So we do have a three I guess scenario
in terms of base case, bookcase, and bare case. Now,
as I suggest before, we're not going to expect another
six percent rise next year. In our base case, we
expect goal price to hit four thousand and five are
(05:34):
US pounds, So if we're looking at the current level
of four thousand and two, it's about eight percent upside
from the current spot prize and that's actually in line
with the historical average of Goal in terms of the
annual gain. So in the last fifty six years, the
annual average gain has to be about nine percent for Goal.
(05:55):
So we are converting back what we think it's our
conservative case. In terms of bookcase. Now we do have
a bookcase which gold price could hit five thousand, but
we sort of need some sort of unknown market factors
or some sort of volatility. So we need a shock
in the equity market, which we have not seen since April.
(06:19):
We probably need some observation of rising fee of slack fation,
which we probably have not seen in the last couple
of six months, and potentially a acceleration of US dollar weakness.
So if the FED decide to cut rates more aggressively
than the market expects, so we expect three rate cuts
(06:40):
next year. But if the new chairman comes in next
year here or she becomes very dubbish on the FED
rate cuts, that's going to put a lot of pressure
on the dollar. So we actually need multiple scenarios to
come in to push the case for gold to hit
five thousand. And when you think about five thousand, it's
about twenty three percent upside from the current spot price,
(07:04):
which actually we saw back in twenty and twenty four
when goal price did rich, it did hit about twenty
five percent return. A bare case, we might see gold
price hitting three thousand and five, and that's sort of
a price a lot of investors actually do like because
there's a lot of clients of ours they would like
(07:24):
to get in at a reasonable price level. So three
dozen fi it's a it's a bare case we expect,
but again that needs multiple I guess reasoning drivers. If
there's a more resigned environment, if the dollar, your stolen
index increases, if there's less demand into Goal, potentially we
can see a bare case scenario. But we feel quite
(07:48):
confident that at three thousand and five to that three
thousand and seven level, there will be many many central
banks that would love to get in, including China and
all other measure market central banks. Because mention markets and
your bank state are place sensitive two prices. So if
the price level do dip to around three thousand and
five US perounds, we do believe that's going to be
(08:10):
a quite a strong supporting level for the gold market.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
So I mean essentially that provides the floor if nothing else,
though your central case scenario is about forty five hundred
at some point next year.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Yes, I think conservatively in our base case four thousand
and five, referring back to the historical average of return,
but we might see some shocks next next year through
the equity market the bond market. If that happens, of course,
we can potentially see what we saw back in April
or May when gold Plas did what's quite well supported
(08:48):
because of the shocks that we saw in the equity market.
So in the base case four thousand and five, in
our bookcase five thousand US per pounds next year.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Robin, thank you for talking to you here, and Greed,
thank you. That was Robin swey Apac gold strategist at
State Street Investment Management. And a reminder to police seek
professional advice before making investment decisions. If you've got something
you'd like to know, then send through your question via LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook,
or at fearangreed dot com. Today you I'm Seanelma and
this is peer and Greed Q and A
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