April 25, 2025 • 39 mins
In this episode - one week before the federal election - we talk to Kos Samaras. Samaras had a long career as a Labor strategist - particularly in running campaigns for the Victorian party - before founding the political consultancy firm RedBridge in 2020. He's one of the big thinkers in Australian politics, who grew up in a blue collar Labor family, and is now sometimes critical of Labor for what he sees as the neglect of its heartland voters. Samaras is one of many voices featured in this week's cover story - Battle for the battlers - about the challenges facing social democratic parties around the world (including Australia), written by the host of our conversation today, Good Weekend senior writer Gay Alcorn.
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Episode Transcript
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S1 (00:09):
Hi, I'm Konrad Marshall and from the Sydney Morning Herald
and The Age. Welcome to Good Weekend Talks, a magazine
for your ears, featuring in-depth conversations with fascinating people from
sport and politics, science and culture, business and beyond. Every week,
you can download new episodes in which top journalists from
across our newsrooms talk to compelling people about the definitive
(00:31):
stories of the day. In this episode, one week before
the federal election, we talked to Corrs Samaras. Samaras had
a long career as a labor strategist, particularly in running
campaigns for the Victorian Party before founding the political consultancy
firm Redbridge in 2020. He's one of the big thinkers
in Australian politics who grew up in a blue collar
(00:53):
labor family and is now sometimes critical of labor for
what he sees as the neglect of its heartland voters.
Samaras is one of many voices featured in this week's
cover story, battle for the battlers. Can the ALP win
back its traditional working class voters? About the challenges facing
social democratic parties around the world, including in Australia. Written
(01:15):
by the host of our conversation today. Good weekend, senior
writer Gai Alcorn.
S2 (01:21):
Thank you, Konrad and welcome, Corrs. Hello. Let's just start
a little bit with you. You're 54. Yep. Uh, tell
us a bit about your your childhood, growing up, your
parents and what got you interested in in labor? Yeah.
So typical.
S3 (01:36):
You know, life as a child of migrants from from Europe. Obviously,
parents migrated here. Um, mum separated when I was an infant. Uh,
remarried a number of years later. So I was, you know, obviously, uh,
initially been just taking taken care of by one parent. Um,
and that was obviously a fairly, um, interesting experience because
(02:00):
during those those years, if you were a young Greek
woman with a with a baby and you're separated, it
was considered as a fairly significant taboo. So yeah, she remarried.
We moved out to Broadmeadows, where obviously parents then, um,
you know, made a life for working in the factories
up there. And mum did work in various markets, including Footscray.
(02:22):
But yeah, basically moved around a bit wherever the work was.
S2 (02:26):
And what was life like for Young Cos and were
they politically active.
S3 (02:30):
My mum was. So the politics comes from a mother's family,
there's no doubt about that. Um, so grandfather was a
Greek partisan, member of the Communist Party, fought in the
Greek Civil War, was imprisoned. Um, he was actually in
prison whilst mum was born. Then mum joined the Communist
Party at the age of 16. Uh, got into serious
(02:51):
trouble by her father because her father, you know, had
a very serious view about politics and that it was dangerous.
And it was indeed at the time the junta was approaching. Um,
and so he he worked out a way to get
her on a boat and sent her to Australia to
get her out of trouble.
S2 (03:08):
And, and and and you got interested, I think obviously
through her. But in labor politics in particular. Why? And
were they, were they members of the party or anything
or lifelong supporters? But what interested lifelong supporters?
S3 (03:22):
There's no doubt about that. I mean, it was you know,
I remember she she had the TV on, um, at
a very, very vague memory. This was obviously an infant
when Whitlam lost to Malcolm Fraser. And I couldn't work
out because the images I was seeing of big rallies
in support of Whitlam were were huge. And for the
mind of a child, you thought that, well, he's going
(03:42):
to win. Look, all these people. Yes. And, um, she
tried to explain to me that I didn't make any
sense of it. Um, you know, so I obviously grew
up in that environment, grew up in constant, you know,
conversations around politics, mainly from from mum.
S2 (03:57):
Okay.
S3 (03:58):
Uh, labor politics, uh, so very, very partisan family when
it comes to, you know, um, voting labor. There's no
question about that. In fact, when I enrolled to vote,
it was almost a, uh, you know, a ritual, you know,
your first vote. Come on. We're going off to vote.
Go to the local Bethel primary booth. Um, which is
still a a booth in in, uh, federal City Hall.
S2 (04:20):
And what year was that? Well, who's the who's the
prime minister?
S3 (04:23):
And that would have been, um. That would have been Hawke.
S2 (04:25):
Okay.
S3 (04:26):
Yeah. Definitely. Hawke. Yeah.
S2 (04:27):
Alright, so it was almost assumed you were going to
be labor. Was there any so was there anything particular
that sort of inspired your, your own political philosophy or thought.
S3 (04:35):
I guess, you know, you, you were growing up in
an area that clearly has got its challenges. And I
think just my brain was a bit more definitely wired
to my friends. They all went to work in the factories.
I didn't, um, you know, I went I got involved
in the arts and advertising and worked in the advertising
industry for a little bit. Right. And so I was
(04:57):
very unorthodox. Um, and I just was, I think, just
a little bit more politically aware, mainly because of my upbringing. Um,
and so then I, you know, I was pretty passionate
about the injustices I was seeing around the world and
how that was impacting all sorts of people when it
came to human rights abuses. Timor was a big passion
of mine at the time.
S2 (05:18):
And because injustices you saw in in Broadmeadows or western
suburbs of Melbourne. Were you aware that there was great
disadvantage there, or was it just everyone? What were you
aware of? Of it? Absolutely. What was.
S3 (05:32):
It? So I mean, the biggest eye opener for me was, um,
when for some reason, I think our teachers at the
time thought, look, the way we can introduce these, these
kids to a different part of um, um, societies to
is to, um, get them to meet kids in private schools.
So they took us to I think it was Xavier.
I can't remember, it was a one of those really obviously, um,
(05:55):
Expensive um private school um institutions further in town. And
they were at the time um, as we were walking through,
they threw one, one, one and two cent pieces at
us from, from the windows.
S2 (06:07):
Okay. Not a great idea from the teachers.
S3 (06:08):
That's right. Not a.
S2 (06:09):
Great idea. Right.
S3 (06:10):
Because obviously we tended to be at the Broadmeadows response
was come down here and we'll do x, Y and Z. Right.
And so the teachers had their hands full of a sudden.
S2 (06:20):
Um, jumping forward a little bit. What was your first job? Um,
professionally with labor. And I was interested in what the
culture of labor was like at that time, drastically different.
S3 (06:30):
So first job I ever did, I volunteered for a while,
like a long time. I mean, I my first vote
was 1990. So that was the the election, um, that
Hawke lost nine seats, I think it was in Victoria.
And sure enough, family still voted labor. So, um, 1996
was when I was actually handing out how to vote
(06:51):
cards and helping, um, Um, and then probably about 12
months later, I got involved in Young labor and so on.
But we, you know, I joined the Labor Party, uh,
because it was from from my perspective, there was no
Greens back then. Um, there was no really other mainstream
established political movement that you could get, you could get
(07:14):
involved in that was talking to the economic concerns of
the people I grew up with. So I joined and
obviously then joined the left faction, because back then the
left faction was very significantly focused on, I would say,
the blue collar, working class politics.
S2 (07:31):
Okay.
S3 (07:32):
Uh, very industrial, obviously extremely active on foreign affairs issues,
particularly around human rights abuses abroad and so on. So
it was that old school left social democratic movement. The
right at the time were very into the new, uh,
economic jargon, which was free markets, economic Like rationalism, this
(07:54):
will improve the well-being of everyone. And of course, me
as a young, hot haired lefty thought it was a
really bad idea.
S2 (08:01):
So you would have been, at the time, critical of
the Hawke Keating's reforms?
S3 (08:06):
Oh, yeah, 100%.
S2 (08:07):
All right, so we'll just go back a little bit.
So when when did you first professionally get a job
with labor?
S3 (08:11):
Yeah, that would have been, uh, 97th October 1997, October
in the office of Senator Kim Carr.
S2 (08:17):
Office of Senator Kim Carr. Alright. And you went on
and you became very senior in Victorian Labor Party. You
basically ran or was a very involved in, I think,
four state election campaigns, Braxton and Andrews. I was interested
in and you were given a lot of credit, I think,
for being quite innovative in your your campaign strategies. Can
(08:38):
you give me a sense of what, uh, what a
campaign was like then and how when you observe it now,
I know you're no longer involved in in that sort
of thing with labor, but what what what's the difference
that you can see now from what what matters in
a campaign or are the fundamentals?
S3 (08:52):
When I first started working on campaigns, it was struck
me how conservative it was, the way the political parties
approached campaigning like they were really keen on shoving into
people's letterboxes, newsletters that had 1500 words. And I just
knew from my advertising background that that wasn't going to fly.
You know your attention. You haven't been taught those skills
in the in the private world. I thought, well, no,
(09:15):
you've got 15 seconds to get people's attention. And even
back then, right, which was a much more, I would say,
calmer communications environment. You know, you had three free to
air stations and, you know, radio was radio and the
internet was a new thing. Um, but even then I
knew that what was being done was quite antiquated. So, um,
(09:37):
you know, I clearly, you know, wanted to get into
the space of personalising communications, um, making sure that how
the labour camp was communicating was, was modern and reaching
people in a way that they expected to be reached.
but things really didn't change for us until obviously the
internet became dominant and things started to fragment pretty rapidly.
(10:00):
And then obviously, we quickly realized that you had to
become quite, uh, I would say you had to be
really organized to reach people's attention. And I think now,
to contrast that to when it used to be what
it used to be like versus today, it's massive difference.
S2 (10:17):
So when you watch the campaigns today of both political
parties or smaller ones, do you, do you do you
recognize what they're doing or do you see it completely
changed from when you.
S3 (10:27):
Totally recognize what they're.
S2 (10:28):
Doing? Okay.
S3 (10:28):
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I still I mean, my last
one was in 2018 at a state level, in 2019
at a federal level. Um, and I still can see
what they're doing. And because I follow politics and research
and that's obviously my day job these days, I can
see how labor chase changed at this election to try
to reach a difficult constituency, being younger Australians in particular,
(10:53):
but I think they're all still struggling because they're selling
a product that no one wants to buy.
S2 (10:58):
All right.
S3 (10:59):
Right. So you're using advertising approaches, whether you're running them
on on streaming platforms or whether you're running it on
YouTube as an advertisement, uh, whether it's on free to air,
you're still selling something someone doesn't want, doesn't want.
S2 (11:12):
Alright, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. Um,
just to take us. Take us up to speed. So
you left, uh, your job with Labour and founded, uh,
Redbridge at the at the end of 2019? Yes. Tell
us what Redbridge does for people who don't know.
S3 (11:27):
Just briefly in my focus, it's market political research, uh,
with a twist. And that is one of our directors
has got a psych background. And so we approach things
a little bit differently from a social perspective, uh, and
use our combined experiences. So, you know, there's a, there's
Tony Barry from the liberal side of politics. There's myself. Um,
(11:48):
we have a Greens on board, you know, so we're
tripartisan you can best describe it. Um, and yeah, approach
things differently. So that's a quick snapshot.
S2 (11:56):
Okay. Are your heart is still with labor though. Yes.
Oh yeah. Of course. Yes, yes. But you have been
and you've talked to me about this for the piece
for the Good weekend. And it's not just to me either.
To others. You've been somewhat critical of labor and its, uh,
approach or how it represents people that where you come from? Yeah. Um,
and is that what you mean by that? No one's
(12:19):
listening to the message. They're they're, uh, they're selling or.
Explain that to me. Why have you been critical of
Critical Approach?
S3 (12:26):
I was working with them.
S2 (12:27):
Yes.
S3 (12:28):
So, you know, for example, when, um, uh, the Gillard
government acts, the single parent payment, you know, I was
vocal at the time and I was a party official
was employed by them. Uh, and that's because of my
personal experience, you know, that short period of time in
my history where, you know, I was only one parent
that was taking care of me, and I just knew
how important this must, must be to a lot of
young kids that would have been in my position, so
(12:51):
I just found that appalling.
S2 (12:52):
So your mother was on a single parents benefit for
a while?
S3 (12:55):
Yeah, whatever that was back then. I don't know what
it was. She was. She worked as a nanny. Um,
just to survive. We used to live out in and
out of other people's homes. Okay. Yeah. So that was obviously,
you know, personally scarring for me. And I just knew. Well,
there's there's thousands of those stories out there. And for
a Labour Party just to do that to, to particularly
women because they were obviously in the majority women, it
(13:17):
was appalling. So I made that very clear. So I've
continued that trend. You know, whenever I think that my
side doesn't, uh, do the right thing by the people
that matter, and that is people that need a helping
hand in society to, to, to cut through, um, what
is you know, what has been handed to them is
a bad, I'd say, birth lottery ticket. Right. Um, that's
(13:40):
that's where I'm at. Yeah.
S2 (13:42):
So do you see it as a a policy here,
a policy there, like the Julia Gillard's policy? Or do
you see something fundamental has changed about how Labour sees
its responsibilities to. I think I guess you're talking about
we'll talk about traditional working class or disadvantaged people, like
what's happened with Labour in your view.
S3 (14:00):
It's about I think it is changing because I think
the electorate's forced them to change and I think it's
really positive. So there's no safe seats in Victoria anymore.
And that's in my opinion, that's a great thing. Um,
I think I'm sure the, the young MPs now that
occupy those seats will may disagree, but they are really
good MPs and they will represent their electorates and have
(14:21):
been representing electorates. I'm not saying for spin purposes, they
know they have to, otherwise they don't have a seat.
And this is fundamentally the big change. One of my
former work colleagues, Sam Ray, who, you know, he ran.
He ran the 2018 campaign with me, um, in Victoria.
He's got the federal seat of Hawke at the moment.
He's been doorknocking since October, but he's been actually doing
(14:42):
that probably since he was re-elected, since he was initially
elected because his primary collapsed into into the 30s at
the last election. Right. This is off the back of
that disenchantment that Labour is experiencing. So he knows all
those problems and he's been working tirelessly at that. So
that's really good. From a from a democracy perspective, that's
a good outcome. Right. Personally, he might disagree with me
(15:05):
because he has got to work tirelessly to, to to
maintain that seat. But I think philosophically he wouldn't disagree
there at all.
S2 (15:11):
Yes. I mean, if you look at, uh, and we
talked about this um, earlier too, but the, the, the
big swings against labour in these, I guess we're talking
about outer suburban kind of, um, quite, uh, working class seats.
And we should define that at some point, too. I mean,
Scullin was more than 14% last time in the in
(15:32):
the north of Melbourne. Um, you've had Biggs and both the,
the reviews, the labor reviews into both the 2019 election
and the 2022 election, even though they won in 22,
highlighted we are losing support in our heartland seats. Why
do you think that that happened?
S3 (15:50):
I mean, I've been talking about this problem for over
a decade. You have? Um, and it's because the I
would say the way the movement, the, the labor political
movement expresses itself is now rather focused on issues that
are of, of concern to people further in, in our
larger cities. That doesn't mean they don't pay attention to, to,
(16:12):
to the needs of working class people. And that working
class term I use describes a wide range of occupations.
It isn't just blue collar. Um, it doesn't mean they
don't pay attention to them. It's just that in terms
of the bandwidth they allocate, the effort they allocate. I mean,
a good example and what that does over time is
it creates blind spots. And the pandemic, for example, and
(16:34):
the way the labor government here in Victoria responded to
the pandemic, put on, on, on absolute steroids, that blind spot. Right.
In terms of just, um, the the initial advertising that
we're using to to educate people about what they need
to be done, to how they responded to the towers,
how they responded to a whole range of issues that
(16:55):
were just wrong. Because culturally, they just did not understand
the communities that were dealing with.
S2 (16:59):
So when we talk about the towers, we mean sort
of Housing Commission towers. They lock down. Okay. Labor was
kind of formed by the kind of working class unions.
And obviously at that stage, possibly till the 50s or so,
(17:21):
we were talking about manufacturing, industrialised workforce, mostly men. When
you say working class now, who do you mean? Cos
it could.
S3 (17:29):
Be the person working for a small business cafe, you know,
it could be the person who is at a Telstra
shop in Craigieburn that does the Saturday shift. Um, it
could be the cleaner that cleans that, the shopping centre. Um,
it could be the person who is operating the small
(17:49):
fruit shop around the corner that, you know, has some
that actually runs it and rents the space from the
shopping center. This is this is the working class I'm
talking about.
S2 (17:59):
Okay. So fairly low skilled, but not necessarily unionized. Not unionized.
A lot of women.
S3 (18:05):
Yeah. A lot of women. Not unionized. Um, but probably
skilled in TAFE. Okay.
S2 (18:10):
Alright. Fair enough.
S3 (18:11):
Lots of them. Lots of.
S2 (18:11):
Them. Alright.
S3 (18:12):
Um, yeah.
S2 (18:13):
Can we talk about, uh, we'll keep going on that
one actually, because one thing I noticed in doing the
research for this piece and, and going to your point
that labor has become more attractive to probably more affluent
inner city areas. Yes. Um, and also taking the point
that it was in the Whitlam in the 70s who
broadened the base of labor and probably needed to to
(18:33):
more affluent professional people. But the, the education in particular,
like it wasn't that long ago when when the coalition
won the votes of of of tertiary educated people. And
in the last couple of elections, according to the Australian
Election Study, which is a big survey.
S3 (18:51):
It's.
S2 (18:52):
Flipped over, that's flipped. And also, even though the coalition
still I think attracts more higher income people, that's narrowing to.
That's right. That flip seems to me to be happening
around the world with social democratic parties. Can you talk
about that? Is there is there is is labor different
from other social democratic parties who have struggled for working class, uh,
(19:14):
people support, or are there some lessons to be learned there?
Is labor better? It's better you think? Okay.
S3 (19:20):
So its base is far, far more complex and broader
than than UK labor, for example. So the Labor Party
in Australia now straddles a. And although its primary vote
is low, it's still straddles a large spectrum of people. Um,
more broad than it's ever been in its history.
S2 (19:37):
Okay.
S3 (19:38):
So it attracts the support of highly educated middle to
high income constituencies in inner Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane. It attracts
support from people who are in outer suburban working class
communities that we talked about. Although those numbers are not
as big as they used to be, um, it does
(19:59):
still get some of that tradie vote as well. Not
all of it, but some of it. So it's quite broad.
But if you were to say where is the attrition occurring.
It's occurring in that lower end, uh income income bands.
So it is suffering attrition amongst younger people who think
that the system and the economy is stacked against them
(20:21):
and they are voting for minor parties increasingly now. Now
they're not going over to the coalition. And the coalition
is discovering that problem right now as we speak.
S2 (20:30):
And they're not going to. The far right here either,
as they are in in Europe. More correct. Yes. You're right.
They're not going to the coalition. They're going to minor
and independent parties. So, so so that's a that's a
big shift. And we haven't had Correct me if you
think disagree a real rise of of you know, uh,
like the Reform Party in the UK for instance.
S3 (20:50):
That's because it doesn't exist. Right. So my concerns are
that if there was an option like that here, a
sophisticated right wing populist option, there will be a not
a majority, but about 20% of that Gen Z millennial
constituency that young Australians that will find that that proposition
attractive because it's anti-establishment. So they're not necessarily right wing
(21:14):
in their personal views. They just want the system torn down.
S2 (21:17):
Alright, let's talk a bit more about that because we
are seeing that, I think certainly in in Trump's success
in the United States, there's a little bit of anti-establishment
up yours feeling. Is that the feeling you're picking up
from your focus groups for monks, particularly young Australians? Is
that right? And what do they think? They think that
the system does not work for them. What what what's
going through their mind?
S3 (21:37):
Yeah. I mean, the best way you can describe and
this is even people who are this is amongst people
who are going to even vote for Labour and Liberal
at this election, who are in their 20s, 30s and
early 40s. And they have a uniform view that that
the system, the, the political system is not doing the
job that's needed to be done. They think that Band-Aids
(21:58):
are basically you notice an advanced language around the race
of Band-Aids. Yeah, that's that's that's on purpose because basically
their research would have picked this up and that is
that people just feel like right now, um, most major
parties are throwing around, um, very simple fixes to very
complex problems. So young people are starving for massive reform.
They don't know what that is, but they just want
(22:19):
to see someone with a vision that's going to change
the world around them, a world which they think effectively
guarantee they'll have a life of lesser quality than their parents.
S2 (22:28):
And are they looking for governments to do that? Yes.
Or they want governments to be more involved in this,
you know, in this era. All right. Um, that is
quite similar to what we're seeing overseas. We are to
in an Australian way. We have preferential voting. We have
compulsory voting. That also has a big impact. Uh, is
that I'm just wondering, given your, um, you know, dislike
(22:49):
at the time of the, the, you know, neoliberalism or
whatever you want to call it, the Hawke-keating reforms, although
that did have a big social element too, didn't it?
I mean, Medicare, and as I.
S3 (22:59):
Got older, I've realised what, what those, those two individuals
are trying to do. And that was they were trying
to they knew that this was coming. So they wanted
to put as many safety, um, measures in place to
protect their constituency from what was a global, global phenomenon. Yes.
So actually, they were pretty good what they did. Right.
They it didn't work. Uh, to a certain extent, but
(23:22):
to a certain extent it did. Now we have Medicare.
And I might sound partisan here, but at the end
of the day, if you didn't have the health system
that is in place in this country, and you had
a US style system in place, I think the sort
of political, um, uh, volatile currents that were undercurrents that
we see in the US will be definitely present here
(23:42):
as well.
S2 (23:43):
Alright, so we've been protected somewhat from.
S3 (23:44):
Somewhat from that.
S2 (23:45):
Yeah. The coalition has come out sort of openly, um,
saying that they think that it could flip and that
more kind of everyday workers, working class workers, they're the
part that they'll be the party for them. Now. They
might be maybe in a bit of a fantasy or
a little bit over a week after the election. But
can you see that, uh, as a possibility in, if
not this election than the future? Is that that where
(24:05):
the trend is?
S3 (24:06):
The problem for them is, you know, I was expecting
Peter Dutton to, at this election, come out with a
fairly significant body of reform that was quite left the field. Okay.
Captured the hearts and minds of these people that we've
been talking about and really crack open Labor's base in
the outer suburbs.
S2 (24:21):
What sort of things you mean?
S3 (24:22):
So economic reform, tax reform, um, drop their agenda with
regards to unions, uh, drop their agenda with regards to
the way we fix the economy's increase productivity because productivity
to to most of these constituencies we're talking about is
really just them working harder, longer hours for less pay.
That's how they see it. And that's the lived experience.
(24:44):
You know, I keep on saying this to the political class.
No point trying to debate with, you know, a retail
worker out there in the western suburbs of Sydney as
to whether she's working harder or not. Um, she feels
that she is. She's actually taking on more hours and
she's still struggling. So unless the Liberal Party go and
sacrifice some of those sacred cows of theirs, they're not
(25:07):
going to. They're not going to. They're not going to
complete that flip.
S2 (25:10):
Alright.
S3 (25:10):
And we can see the evidence of that right now.
S2 (25:12):
Yes. Um, we'll get on to a bit more comment.
Just do you think personally you've been involved in politics
a long time? Are you still a member of the
Labor Party? And I know you're talking about what your
focus groups are saying, but do you think Australia's political system,
the two party system that we have is failing? Um,
a lot of ordinary workers that they have, they have
(25:32):
some justification in thinking that, ah, it's not working for
them anymore, that governments are sort of failing to, I guess,
improve their lives.
S3 (25:41):
Well, I would say if you think about what's happened since, uh,
the majority, not all of them, but the majority of
Millennial and Gen Z have come onto the voters roll.
So we're talking about 2010 onwards. What have they seen?
One thing they have seen is that at this election,
Albanese could be the first prime minister re-elected since John
(26:02):
Howard in 2004. So they've seen a lot of political
self-indulgence with the two majors shooting their leaders. They've seen
a lot of, um, politicking with regards to huge issues
that concerned them. That includes climate, right. But it also
includes housing. So, you know, when Bill shorten took a
(26:24):
significant housing package to the election, they witnessed how the
other side politicised that. Now the coalition got away with it.
They got that sugar hit, which was that wind. But
what they did is they further entrenched The disconnect between
them and young Australians, because now most of these young
Australians saw that in 2019. They're not blind. They don't
(26:45):
forget what you did in an election. And again, we
see it this election. They're trying to weaponize some notion
that labor wants to, you know, put bringing negative gearing. Again.
If you're trying to appeal to young people and you're
going back to your your the tools that you used
in 2019 to try to win seats in this at
this election, how do you think that's going to bounce
(27:07):
around amongst Gen Z.
S2 (27:08):
Yes. Take your point. But but didn't the 2019 election
just sort of terrify labor because Bill shorten did take
a more ambitious agenda that people say they want? Yes. And,
and lower class, you know, lower income voters, um, are
turned against labor. Yes. So is that the reason.
S3 (27:26):
In certain in certain constituencies. So the trends in parts
of western Sydney and outer western Melbourne and outer northern
Melbourne and so on have been there for a decade.
So historically, we've seen this gradual erosion of the primary
vote in what was once safe seats.
S2 (27:43):
Yes.
S3 (27:44):
So that trend was already underway. 2019 was really a
tactical win by the coalition in particular seats which these
issues were going to resonate. So negative gearing was really
prominent as an issue in the federal seat of Chisholm,
for example, where we have high numbers of people who
live there who have a property there, negative gear, um,
(28:04):
mining communities. So again, you know, weaponizing um, Labor's climate
policy at the time, um, it worked really well within
electorates that relied on coal as an industry. Again, tactical wins.
And it was a tight result.
S2 (28:20):
It was. But the review from memory said that overall,
you know, obviously marginal seats. That is where it matters. Overall,
you had people who the policies of negative gearing, franking
credits were going to benefit actually, you know, moving away
from labor and the people who actually were in higher
income seats that might be affected by these policies. Move
(28:40):
towards labor. It must have been a devastating result. Yeah. Correct. Yeah. Correct.
S3 (28:45):
And it's um, but again, you know, 2019.
S2 (28:48):
I guess what I'm getting at. Does labor have to
be as cautious as this this government has been. That's
the lesson. They seem to have taken over a little
bit of this. No loses a little bit of that.
And you're saying those are Band-Aids that aren't actually appealing
to more traditional heartland people in heartland? They have to pick.
S3 (29:05):
Who's going to win and they have to pick who's
going to lose. And that's unfortunately part of democracy and politics, right.
And trying to be a friend to everyone is not
going to work. Um, political movements are born and die
off the back of that doctrine. Right? Which is you
pick who you're going to represent and you and you
represent them ruthlessly. And yes, you're going to upset people.
S2 (29:26):
Um, neither party wants to upset anyone at this election. Correct.
S3 (29:29):
Which is fundamentally the problem.
S2 (29:30):
All right. Good. Um, I haven't got much more time.
I wanted to ask you about, um, The I guess
that the election is we are now. I mean, just
one thing you could say in Labor's defense. I mean,
they would say that, um, obviously they've got a very
working class background in a prime minister. Anthony Albanese, treasurer, treasurer,
(29:53):
Jim Chalmers. Logan. Boy. Yeah. They talk in, in, in a,
in a, you know, everyday way. They're not sort of
snooty in any way. And they would also say, look
what we've done, we've done uh, we've, we've made some
er reforms. We've, we've increased pay for low paid workers
in aged care, child care. We've uh, we've done, you know,
(30:13):
something a lot more than the, than the former government
has done on climate change. We've, you know, they've done
they rebates for electricity, improving the, um, incentives. You know,
I mean, there's a long list of things that are
actually should help everyday people critique that. For me I
mean communications.
S3 (30:35):
So the packaging, packaging, all that up and making sure
that the, the the parts of Australia you want voting for,
you are aware of this because when we run groups,
they're not aware of it. And because it's these policies
impact small groups of Australians in different parts of Australia. Uh,
there isn't an overall overarching, um, I would say umbrella
(30:59):
that keeps it all together as a, as a narrative
that they can sell to the Australian people, that they've
done what they can in the middle of a inflationary crisis,
which is not entirely in their control.
S2 (31:10):
Yes.
S3 (31:10):
Right.
S2 (31:11):
So is it just communications though? Cos I mean, earlier
you were talking about, uh, and you know, there's other
studies that show this too, that, that, that a lot
of people want more significant change. Um, and do you
whether it's whether it's fundamental tax reform, for instance, which
is one that's often raised or whether it is a
more distributive, uh, policy? I mean, is it just communications
(31:34):
or is there something more fundamental.
S3 (31:35):
If we're talking about how they were to. So there's
there's two parts to this. There's the first part, which
is okay, you did what you did as a government.
You didn't sell it properly. Yeah. They're doing a pretty
good job now. And we can see the fruits of that. Um,
and then secondly, you need to do something a bit
beyond that to survive as a movement going forward. Right.
(31:57):
So if you don't like sitting around with your low
30s primary vote and sometimes in the high 20s, and
you want to change that, the only solution to that,
and to broaden the electoral appeal of the Labour Party,
is to tackle significant reform that makes this this emerging
generation feel they have political representation, genuinely political representation. Um,
(32:19):
and if they do that, I think the circumstances will improve.
S2 (32:22):
Okay, let's get to the campaign. Um, we're a little
bit over a week, uh, out, uh, and I think
I saw you quoted saying, look, you've hardly ever seen the, uh,
this happen before in terms of the collapse of the
coalition support and in your polling. Please talk about it
that the primary vote of the coalition has declined significantly.
(32:42):
Nine points? Yes, but Labor's only up a couple of points,
I think. So what's happening happened in this election? It
does seem to be a big change from when you were,
you know, talking at the at the start of the year, February.
S3 (32:55):
That's right. So we we're seeing again these generations we've
been talking about younger Australians largely under the under the
age of 45. They behave politically very different to older Australians.
So the Gen X vote, for example, the two party
preferred vote for the Labor Party, there is 52. The
primary vote amongst Gen Xers for labor is 36. It's
(33:16):
the same for the coalition 36. Greens are like in
the low teens, very, very traditional, very, very predictable. Boomers
are really good for the coalition. Then when we move
to Gen Z, the biggest primary vote is green 33.
This is the next track. These seats are, um, at
(33:37):
a marginal regional electorates.
S2 (33:39):
These are 20 seats you're tracking through the election for
News Corp. News Corp okay.
S3 (33:43):
And the biggest. Yeah the Greens are winning that in
primary vote. And two party preferred vote obviously for the
Labor Party through the roof. Mhm. But amongst millennials again
very similar story. Two party preferred vote for the Labor
Party is is through the roof. Um 60%. Close to 60%
as well. So very very different constituencies. Um and at
the same time the coalition was relying on these types
(34:07):
of voters because there are younger Australians that do vote
for the conservative side of politics and were on their
pile over the last 18 months, um, have started jumping
off because there's no economic plan coming from the Dutton camp,
and they're going to minor parties, and that's why we've
seen that sort of 9% drop and only and labor
(34:27):
only picks up a fraction of it. And that's that
could be something else going on there from from a Um,
a voter's perspective. Um, and they're going to minor parties.
And of course, the preference, once you lose a vote,
you don't always get it all back. Yeah. And that
that completely inflates the two party preferred vote for the
Labor Party.
S2 (34:43):
Alright. So do you think we're going to go into
an era? Last election was remarkable by the number of independent,
you know that that we've got pretty much now a
third of the electorate voting for labor, a third voting
for the coalition and a third voting for other, which
was just unheard of, you know, a generation ago. Is
that going to be embedded at this election? Do you
think that's going to be the same thing going to
(35:04):
happen and we're going to go forward? Yeah, I think
there's anything wrong with that.
S3 (35:07):
No, I think that's from a from a most Australians
will tell you that's a good thing. So when we
survey uh, Australians about what do they want a minority government, 45%
say yes. They kind of like the idea. Yes. So,
you know, in 2010, we had, um, uh, about eight
seats that were non-classical contests. So that's seats that the
(35:30):
AC IC defines as someone some other entity is contesting
the seat besides the two major parties, whether it could
be green or independent or whatever it is in 2022
that had ballooned out to well over 25. I think
at this election will be well over into the 30s.
Seats that went to preferences in 2010, just over 80.
(35:52):
Over 130in 2022. I think all but 1 or 2
are going to get preferences at this election.
S2 (35:58):
All right.
S3 (35:58):
All right. So this is the change.
S2 (36:00):
Yeah I saw that in February. You predicted a are
a labor minority government. Yes. A little bit out a
week before the election. What are you predicting now?
S3 (36:10):
Still probably that, um, it's still you could still it's
plausible to see that labor could lose seats to the
coalition and maybe to independents. But the number of seats
that are now, um, could be possibly lost are much smaller.
And there's also the outside chance it's probably a 7030 thing. Right.
So Right to 70% minority labor government, 30% majority labor
(36:33):
government at this stage, and the outside chance that Labour
picks up some seats at the expense of the coalition
and then, uh, coalition loses not only seats, 1 or
2 seats to labor through that, um, that gain that
I just touched on but also to independents federal seat
(36:53):
of Wannon Monash. Uh, Bradfield. There's a lot of contests
out there. There's a lot of contests out there.
S2 (36:59):
2 or 3 seats you'll really be watching on election
night to see what's going on. That will be indicative
of something. Yeah.
S3 (37:05):
So there's three contests underway. There is the contest between
the coalition and and and the teal or independents. Yes.
There's the contest between the Greens and Labor and there's
the contest between labor and the coalition. They're the three
main contests. There's. Yeah, sure. Okay. Labor might be in
trouble with some independents somewhere else, but that's not the
main the main game at the moment.
S2 (37:25):
So a couple of seats you'll be really watching Bradfield.
S3 (37:28):
Bradfield that teal independent and probably one as well.
S2 (37:31):
Yeah. That's a. Victorian.
S3 (37:33):
Victorian seat.
S2 (37:33):
Yep. Independent.
S3 (37:34):
Yep.
S2 (37:35):
Independent coalition.
S3 (37:35):
Yeah. And then, um, I'll be looking at Brisbane, federal
seat of Brisbane, to see how the Greens are faring
against labor there and to a lesser extent, the coalition
because that's a three way contest. And then of course
traditional seats. It's McEwen in Melbourne and uh, seat like
I would say Paterson and Robertson in New South Wales.
S2 (37:56):
Alright. Thank you. I should ask you, did you ever
have any ambition to go into politics yourself? Zero. Why
is that?
S3 (38:02):
Not interested ever.
S2 (38:04):
Really?
S3 (38:05):
No. I wanted to serve.
S2 (38:06):
Okay. Yeah. Politicians don't serve.
S3 (38:09):
Um, because I was exposed to their lifestyle. And I
worked for for for them for such a long time.
As the more senior I became, the less attracted I
became to the job. I just felt like, um. And
near the end of my previous career, I just thought
there's probably a better way I could actually contribute to this.
So hence I'm in Redbridge.
S2 (38:30):
Thank you so much for your time. Enjoyed it.
S3 (38:32):
Thanks.
S1 (38:34):
That was political strategist Corrs Samaras being interviewed by senior
writer Gai Alcorn on the latest Good Weekend talks coming soon.
We chat with the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman. If you
enjoyed this episode, please remember to subscribe, rate and comment
wherever you get your podcasts and keep tuning in for
more compelling conversations. Good Weekend Talks is brought to you
(38:56):
by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age proud newsrooms
powered by subscriptions to support independent journalism. Search, subscribe Sydney
Morning Herald or The Age? This episode of Good Weekend
Talks is produced by Konrad Marshall and edited by Tim Mummery,
with technical assistance from Cormac Lally. Tami Mills is our
(39:17):
executive producer, Tom McKendrick is head of audio and Greg
Callahan is the acting editor of Good Weekend.
Hi, I'm Konrad Marshall and from the Sydney Morning Herald
and The Age. Welcome to Good Weekend Talks, a magazine
for your ears, featuring in-depth conversations with fascinating people from
sport and politics, science and culture, business and beyond. Every week,
you can download new episodes in which top journalists from
across our newsrooms talk to compelling people about the definitive
(00:31):
stories of the day. In this episode, one week before
the federal election, we talked to Corrs Samaras. Samaras had
a long career as a labor strategist, particularly in running
campaigns for the Victorian Party before founding the political consultancy
firm Redbridge in 2020. He's one of the big thinkers
in Australian politics who grew up in a blue collar
(00:53):
labor family and is now sometimes critical of labor for
what he sees as the neglect of its heartland voters.
Samaras is one of many voices featured in this week's
cover story, battle for the battlers. Can the ALP win
back its traditional working class voters? About the challenges facing
social democratic parties around the world, including in Australia. Written
(01:15):
by the host of our conversation today. Good weekend, senior
writer Gai Alcorn.
S2 (01:21):
Thank you, Konrad and welcome, Corrs. Hello. Let's just start
a little bit with you. You're 54. Yep. Uh, tell
us a bit about your your childhood, growing up, your
parents and what got you interested in in labor? Yeah.
So typical.
S3 (01:36):
You know, life as a child of migrants from from Europe. Obviously,
parents migrated here. Um, mum separated when I was an infant. Uh,
remarried a number of years later. So I was, you know, obviously, uh,
initially been just taking taken care of by one parent. Um,
and that was obviously a fairly, um, interesting experience because
(02:00):
during those those years, if you were a young Greek
woman with a with a baby and you're separated, it
was considered as a fairly significant taboo. So yeah, she remarried.
We moved out to Broadmeadows, where obviously parents then, um,
you know, made a life for working in the factories
up there. And mum did work in various markets, including Footscray.
(02:22):
But yeah, basically moved around a bit wherever the work was.
S2 (02:26):
And what was life like for Young Cos and were
they politically active.
S3 (02:30):
My mum was. So the politics comes from a mother's family,
there's no doubt about that. Um, so grandfather was a
Greek partisan, member of the Communist Party, fought in the
Greek Civil War, was imprisoned. Um, he was actually in
prison whilst mum was born. Then mum joined the Communist
Party at the age of 16. Uh, got into serious
(02:51):
trouble by her father because her father, you know, had
a very serious view about politics and that it was dangerous.
And it was indeed at the time the junta was approaching. Um,
and so he he worked out a way to get
her on a boat and sent her to Australia to
get her out of trouble.
S2 (03:08):
And, and and and you got interested, I think obviously
through her. But in labor politics in particular. Why? And
were they, were they members of the party or anything
or lifelong supporters? But what interested lifelong supporters?
S3 (03:22):
There's no doubt about that. I mean, it was you know,
I remember she she had the TV on, um, at
a very, very vague memory. This was obviously an infant
when Whitlam lost to Malcolm Fraser. And I couldn't work
out because the images I was seeing of big rallies
in support of Whitlam were were huge. And for the
mind of a child, you thought that, well, he's going
(03:42):
to win. Look, all these people. Yes. And, um, she
tried to explain to me that I didn't make any
sense of it. Um, you know, so I obviously grew
up in that environment, grew up in constant, you know,
conversations around politics, mainly from from mum.
S2 (03:57):
Okay.
S3 (03:58):
Uh, labor politics, uh, so very, very partisan family when
it comes to, you know, um, voting labor. There's no
question about that. In fact, when I enrolled to vote,
it was almost a, uh, you know, a ritual, you know,
your first vote. Come on. We're going off to vote.
Go to the local Bethel primary booth. Um, which is
still a a booth in in, uh, federal City Hall.
S2 (04:20):
And what year was that? Well, who's the who's the
prime minister?
S3 (04:23):
And that would have been, um. That would have been Hawke.
S2 (04:25):
Okay.
S3 (04:26):
Yeah. Definitely. Hawke. Yeah.
S2 (04:27):
Alright, so it was almost assumed you were going to
be labor. Was there any so was there anything particular
that sort of inspired your, your own political philosophy or thought.
S3 (04:35):
I guess, you know, you, you were growing up in
an area that clearly has got its challenges. And I
think just my brain was a bit more definitely wired
to my friends. They all went to work in the factories.
I didn't, um, you know, I went I got involved
in the arts and advertising and worked in the advertising
industry for a little bit. Right. And so I was
(04:57):
very unorthodox. Um, and I just was, I think, just
a little bit more politically aware, mainly because of my upbringing. Um,
and so then I, you know, I was pretty passionate
about the injustices I was seeing around the world and
how that was impacting all sorts of people when it
came to human rights abuses. Timor was a big passion
of mine at the time.
S2 (05:18):
And because injustices you saw in in Broadmeadows or western
suburbs of Melbourne. Were you aware that there was great
disadvantage there, or was it just everyone? What were you
aware of? Of it? Absolutely. What was.
S3 (05:32):
It? So I mean, the biggest eye opener for me was, um,
when for some reason, I think our teachers at the
time thought, look, the way we can introduce these, these
kids to a different part of um, um, societies to
is to, um, get them to meet kids in private schools.
So they took us to I think it was Xavier.
I can't remember, it was a one of those really obviously, um,
(05:55):
Expensive um private school um institutions further in town. And
they were at the time um, as we were walking through,
they threw one, one, one and two cent pieces at
us from, from the windows.
S2 (06:07):
Okay. Not a great idea from the teachers.
S3 (06:08):
That's right. Not a.
S2 (06:09):
Great idea. Right.
S3 (06:10):
Because obviously we tended to be at the Broadmeadows response
was come down here and we'll do x, Y and Z. Right.
And so the teachers had their hands full of a sudden.
S2 (06:20):
Um, jumping forward a little bit. What was your first job? Um,
professionally with labor. And I was interested in what the
culture of labor was like at that time, drastically different.
S3 (06:30):
So first job I ever did, I volunteered for a while,
like a long time. I mean, I my first vote
was 1990. So that was the the election, um, that
Hawke lost nine seats, I think it was in Victoria.
And sure enough, family still voted labor. So, um, 1996
was when I was actually handing out how to vote
(06:51):
cards and helping, um, Um, and then probably about 12
months later, I got involved in Young labor and so on.
But we, you know, I joined the Labor Party, uh,
because it was from from my perspective, there was no
Greens back then. Um, there was no really other mainstream
established political movement that you could get, you could get
(07:14):
involved in that was talking to the economic concerns of
the people I grew up with. So I joined and
obviously then joined the left faction, because back then the
left faction was very significantly focused on, I would say,
the blue collar, working class politics.
S2 (07:31):
Okay.
S3 (07:32):
Uh, very industrial, obviously extremely active on foreign affairs issues,
particularly around human rights abuses abroad and so on. So
it was that old school left social democratic movement. The
right at the time were very into the new, uh,
economic jargon, which was free markets, economic Like rationalism, this
(07:54):
will improve the well-being of everyone. And of course, me
as a young, hot haired lefty thought it was a
really bad idea.
S2 (08:01):
So you would have been, at the time, critical of
the Hawke Keating's reforms?
S3 (08:06):
Oh, yeah, 100%.
S2 (08:07):
All right, so we'll just go back a little bit.
So when when did you first professionally get a job
with labor?
S3 (08:11):
Yeah, that would have been, uh, 97th October 1997, October
in the office of Senator Kim Carr.
S2 (08:17):
Office of Senator Kim Carr. Alright. And you went on
and you became very senior in Victorian Labor Party. You
basically ran or was a very involved in, I think,
four state election campaigns, Braxton and Andrews. I was interested
in and you were given a lot of credit, I think,
for being quite innovative in your your campaign strategies. Can
(08:38):
you give me a sense of what, uh, what a
campaign was like then and how when you observe it now,
I know you're no longer involved in in that sort
of thing with labor, but what what what's the difference
that you can see now from what what matters in
a campaign or are the fundamentals?
S3 (08:52):
When I first started working on campaigns, it was struck
me how conservative it was, the way the political parties
approached campaigning like they were really keen on shoving into
people's letterboxes, newsletters that had 1500 words. And I just
knew from my advertising background that that wasn't going to fly.
You know your attention. You haven't been taught those skills
in the in the private world. I thought, well, no,
(09:15):
you've got 15 seconds to get people's attention. And even
back then, right, which was a much more, I would say,
calmer communications environment. You know, you had three free to
air stations and, you know, radio was radio and the
internet was a new thing. Um, but even then I
knew that what was being done was quite antiquated. So, um,
(09:37):
you know, I clearly, you know, wanted to get into
the space of personalising communications, um, making sure that how
the labour camp was communicating was, was modern and reaching
people in a way that they expected to be reached.
but things really didn't change for us until obviously the
internet became dominant and things started to fragment pretty rapidly.
(10:00):
And then obviously, we quickly realized that you had to
become quite, uh, I would say you had to be
really organized to reach people's attention. And I think now,
to contrast that to when it used to be what
it used to be like versus today, it's massive difference.
S2 (10:17):
So when you watch the campaigns today of both political
parties or smaller ones, do you, do you do you
recognize what they're doing or do you see it completely
changed from when you.
S3 (10:27):
Totally recognize what they're.
S2 (10:28):
Doing? Okay.
S3 (10:28):
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I still I mean, my last
one was in 2018 at a state level, in 2019
at a federal level. Um, and I still can see
what they're doing. And because I follow politics and research
and that's obviously my day job these days, I can
see how labor chase changed at this election to try
to reach a difficult constituency, being younger Australians in particular,
(10:53):
but I think they're all still struggling because they're selling
a product that no one wants to buy.
S2 (10:58):
All right.
S3 (10:59):
Right. So you're using advertising approaches, whether you're running them
on on streaming platforms or whether you're running it on
YouTube as an advertisement, uh, whether it's on free to air,
you're still selling something someone doesn't want, doesn't want.
S2 (11:12):
Alright, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. Um,
just to take us. Take us up to speed. So
you left, uh, your job with Labour and founded, uh,
Redbridge at the at the end of 2019? Yes. Tell
us what Redbridge does for people who don't know.
S3 (11:27):
Just briefly in my focus, it's market political research, uh,
with a twist. And that is one of our directors
has got a psych background. And so we approach things
a little bit differently from a social perspective, uh, and
use our combined experiences. So, you know, there's a, there's
Tony Barry from the liberal side of politics. There's myself. Um,
(11:48):
we have a Greens on board, you know, so we're
tripartisan you can best describe it. Um, and yeah, approach
things differently. So that's a quick snapshot.
S2 (11:56):
Okay. Are your heart is still with labor though. Yes.
Oh yeah. Of course. Yes, yes. But you have been
and you've talked to me about this for the piece
for the Good weekend. And it's not just to me either.
To others. You've been somewhat critical of labor and its, uh,
approach or how it represents people that where you come from? Yeah. Um,
and is that what you mean by that? No one's
(12:19):
listening to the message. They're they're, uh, they're selling or.
Explain that to me. Why have you been critical of
Critical Approach?
S3 (12:26):
I was working with them.
S2 (12:27):
Yes.
S3 (12:28):
So, you know, for example, when, um, uh, the Gillard
government acts, the single parent payment, you know, I was
vocal at the time and I was a party official
was employed by them. Uh, and that's because of my
personal experience, you know, that short period of time in
my history where, you know, I was only one parent
that was taking care of me, and I just knew
how important this must, must be to a lot of
young kids that would have been in my position, so
(12:51):
I just found that appalling.
S2 (12:52):
So your mother was on a single parents benefit for
a while?
S3 (12:55):
Yeah, whatever that was back then. I don't know what
it was. She was. She worked as a nanny. Um,
just to survive. We used to live out in and
out of other people's homes. Okay. Yeah. So that was obviously,
you know, personally scarring for me. And I just knew. Well,
there's there's thousands of those stories out there. And for
a Labour Party just to do that to, to particularly
women because they were obviously in the majority women, it
(13:17):
was appalling. So I made that very clear. So I've
continued that trend. You know, whenever I think that my
side doesn't, uh, do the right thing by the people
that matter, and that is people that need a helping
hand in society to, to, to cut through, um, what
is you know, what has been handed to them is
a bad, I'd say, birth lottery ticket. Right. Um, that's
(13:40):
that's where I'm at. Yeah.
S2 (13:42):
So do you see it as a a policy here,
a policy there, like the Julia Gillard's policy? Or do
you see something fundamental has changed about how Labour sees
its responsibilities to. I think I guess you're talking about
we'll talk about traditional working class or disadvantaged people, like
what's happened with Labour in your view.
S3 (14:00):
It's about I think it is changing because I think
the electorate's forced them to change and I think it's
really positive. So there's no safe seats in Victoria anymore.
And that's in my opinion, that's a great thing. Um,
I think I'm sure the, the young MPs now that
occupy those seats will may disagree, but they are really
good MPs and they will represent their electorates and have
(14:21):
been representing electorates. I'm not saying for spin purposes, they
know they have to, otherwise they don't have a seat.
And this is fundamentally the big change. One of my
former work colleagues, Sam Ray, who, you know, he ran.
He ran the 2018 campaign with me, um, in Victoria.
He's got the federal seat of Hawke at the moment.
He's been doorknocking since October, but he's been actually doing
(14:42):
that probably since he was re-elected, since he was initially
elected because his primary collapsed into into the 30s at
the last election. Right. This is off the back of
that disenchantment that Labour is experiencing. So he knows all
those problems and he's been working tirelessly at that. So
that's really good. From a from a democracy perspective, that's
a good outcome. Right. Personally, he might disagree with me
(15:05):
because he has got to work tirelessly to, to to
maintain that seat. But I think philosophically he wouldn't disagree
there at all.
S2 (15:11):
Yes. I mean, if you look at, uh, and we
talked about this um, earlier too, but the, the, the
big swings against labour in these, I guess we're talking
about outer suburban kind of, um, quite, uh, working class seats.
And we should define that at some point, too. I mean,
Scullin was more than 14% last time in the in
(15:32):
the north of Melbourne. Um, you've had Biggs and both the,
the reviews, the labor reviews into both the 2019 election
and the 2022 election, even though they won in 22,
highlighted we are losing support in our heartland seats. Why
do you think that that happened?
S3 (15:50):
I mean, I've been talking about this problem for over
a decade. You have? Um, and it's because the I
would say the way the movement, the, the labor political
movement expresses itself is now rather focused on issues that
are of, of concern to people further in, in our
larger cities. That doesn't mean they don't pay attention to, to,
(16:12):
to the needs of working class people. And that working
class term I use describes a wide range of occupations.
It isn't just blue collar. Um, it doesn't mean they
don't pay attention to them. It's just that in terms
of the bandwidth they allocate, the effort they allocate. I mean,
a good example and what that does over time is
it creates blind spots. And the pandemic, for example, and
(16:34):
the way the labor government here in Victoria responded to
the pandemic, put on, on, on absolute steroids, that blind spot. Right.
In terms of just, um, the the initial advertising that
we're using to to educate people about what they need
to be done, to how they responded to the towers,
how they responded to a whole range of issues that
(16:55):
were just wrong. Because culturally, they just did not understand
the communities that were dealing with.
S2 (16:59):
So when we talk about the towers, we mean sort
of Housing Commission towers. They lock down. Okay. Labor was
kind of formed by the kind of working class unions.
And obviously at that stage, possibly till the 50s or so,
(17:21):
we were talking about manufacturing, industrialised workforce, mostly men. When
you say working class now, who do you mean? Cos
it could.
S3 (17:29):
Be the person working for a small business cafe, you know,
it could be the person who is at a Telstra
shop in Craigieburn that does the Saturday shift. Um, it
could be the cleaner that cleans that, the shopping centre. Um,
it could be the person who is operating the small
(17:49):
fruit shop around the corner that, you know, has some
that actually runs it and rents the space from the
shopping center. This is this is the working class I'm
talking about.
S2 (17:59):
Okay. So fairly low skilled, but not necessarily unionized. Not unionized.
A lot of women.
S3 (18:05):
Yeah. A lot of women. Not unionized. Um, but probably
skilled in TAFE. Okay.
S2 (18:10):
Alright. Fair enough.
S3 (18:11):
Lots of them. Lots of.
S2 (18:11):
Them. Alright.
S3 (18:12):
Um, yeah.
S2 (18:13):
Can we talk about, uh, we'll keep going on that
one actually, because one thing I noticed in doing the
research for this piece and, and going to your point
that labor has become more attractive to probably more affluent
inner city areas. Yes. Um, and also taking the point
that it was in the Whitlam in the 70s who
broadened the base of labor and probably needed to to
(18:33):
more affluent professional people. But the, the education in particular,
like it wasn't that long ago when when the coalition
won the votes of of of tertiary educated people. And
in the last couple of elections, according to the Australian
Election Study, which is a big survey.
S3 (18:51):
It's.
S2 (18:52):
Flipped over, that's flipped. And also, even though the coalition
still I think attracts more higher income people, that's narrowing to.
That's right. That flip seems to me to be happening
around the world with social democratic parties. Can you talk
about that? Is there is there is is labor different
from other social democratic parties who have struggled for working class, uh,
(19:14):
people support, or are there some lessons to be learned there?
Is labor better? It's better you think? Okay.
S3 (19:20):
So its base is far, far more complex and broader
than than UK labor, for example. So the Labor Party
in Australia now straddles a. And although its primary vote
is low, it's still straddles a large spectrum of people. Um,
more broad than it's ever been in its history.
S2 (19:37):
Okay.
S3 (19:38):
So it attracts the support of highly educated middle to
high income constituencies in inner Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane. It attracts
support from people who are in outer suburban working class
communities that we talked about. Although those numbers are not
as big as they used to be, um, it does
(19:59):
still get some of that tradie vote as well. Not
all of it, but some of it. So it's quite broad.
But if you were to say where is the attrition occurring.
It's occurring in that lower end, uh income income bands.
So it is suffering attrition amongst younger people who think
that the system and the economy is stacked against them
(20:21):
and they are voting for minor parties increasingly now. Now
they're not going over to the coalition. And the coalition
is discovering that problem right now as we speak.
S2 (20:30):
And they're not going to. The far right here either,
as they are in in Europe. More correct. Yes. You're right.
They're not going to the coalition. They're going to minor
and independent parties. So, so so that's a that's a
big shift. And we haven't had Correct me if you
think disagree a real rise of of you know, uh,
like the Reform Party in the UK for instance.
S3 (20:50):
That's because it doesn't exist. Right. So my concerns are
that if there was an option like that here, a
sophisticated right wing populist option, there will be a not
a majority, but about 20% of that Gen Z millennial
constituency that young Australians that will find that that proposition
attractive because it's anti-establishment. So they're not necessarily right wing
(21:14):
in their personal views. They just want the system torn down.
S2 (21:17):
Alright, let's talk a bit more about that because we
are seeing that, I think certainly in in Trump's success
in the United States, there's a little bit of anti-establishment
up yours feeling. Is that the feeling you're picking up
from your focus groups for monks, particularly young Australians? Is
that right? And what do they think? They think that
the system does not work for them. What what what's
going through their mind?
S3 (21:37):
Yeah. I mean, the best way you can describe and
this is even people who are this is amongst people
who are going to even vote for Labour and Liberal
at this election, who are in their 20s, 30s and
early 40s. And they have a uniform view that that
the system, the, the political system is not doing the
job that's needed to be done. They think that Band-Aids
(21:58):
are basically you notice an advanced language around the race
of Band-Aids. Yeah, that's that's that's on purpose because basically
their research would have picked this up and that is
that people just feel like right now, um, most major
parties are throwing around, um, very simple fixes to very
complex problems. So young people are starving for massive reform.
They don't know what that is, but they just want
(22:19):
to see someone with a vision that's going to change
the world around them, a world which they think effectively
guarantee they'll have a life of lesser quality than their parents.
S2 (22:28):
And are they looking for governments to do that? Yes.
Or they want governments to be more involved in this,
you know, in this era. All right. Um, that is
quite similar to what we're seeing overseas. We are to
in an Australian way. We have preferential voting. We have
compulsory voting. That also has a big impact. Uh, is
that I'm just wondering, given your, um, you know, dislike
(22:49):
at the time of the, the, you know, neoliberalism or
whatever you want to call it, the Hawke-keating reforms, although
that did have a big social element too, didn't it?
I mean, Medicare, and as I.
S3 (22:59):
Got older, I've realised what, what those, those two individuals
are trying to do. And that was they were trying
to they knew that this was coming. So they wanted
to put as many safety, um, measures in place to
protect their constituency from what was a global, global phenomenon. Yes.
So actually, they were pretty good what they did. Right.
They it didn't work. Uh, to a certain extent, but
(23:22):
to a certain extent it did. Now we have Medicare.
And I might sound partisan here, but at the end
of the day, if you didn't have the health system
that is in place in this country, and you had
a US style system in place, I think the sort
of political, um, uh, volatile currents that were undercurrents that
we see in the US will be definitely present here
(23:42):
as well.
S2 (23:43):
Alright, so we've been protected somewhat from.
S3 (23:44):
Somewhat from that.
S2 (23:45):
Yeah. The coalition has come out sort of openly, um,
saying that they think that it could flip and that
more kind of everyday workers, working class workers, they're the
part that they'll be the party for them. Now. They
might be maybe in a bit of a fantasy or
a little bit over a week after the election. But
can you see that, uh, as a possibility in, if
not this election than the future? Is that that where
(24:05):
the trend is?
S3 (24:06):
The problem for them is, you know, I was expecting
Peter Dutton to, at this election, come out with a
fairly significant body of reform that was quite left the field. Okay.
Captured the hearts and minds of these people that we've
been talking about and really crack open Labor's base in
the outer suburbs.
S2 (24:21):
What sort of things you mean?
S3 (24:22):
So economic reform, tax reform, um, drop their agenda with
regards to unions, uh, drop their agenda with regards to
the way we fix the economy's increase productivity because productivity
to to most of these constituencies we're talking about is
really just them working harder, longer hours for less pay.
That's how they see it. And that's the lived experience.
(24:44):
You know, I keep on saying this to the political class.
No point trying to debate with, you know, a retail
worker out there in the western suburbs of Sydney as
to whether she's working harder or not. Um, she feels
that she is. She's actually taking on more hours and
she's still struggling. So unless the Liberal Party go and
sacrifice some of those sacred cows of theirs, they're not
(25:07):
going to. They're not going to. They're not going to
complete that flip.
S2 (25:10):
Alright.
S3 (25:10):
And we can see the evidence of that right now.
S2 (25:12):
Yes. Um, we'll get on to a bit more comment.
Just do you think personally you've been involved in politics
a long time? Are you still a member of the
Labor Party? And I know you're talking about what your
focus groups are saying, but do you think Australia's political system,
the two party system that we have is failing? Um,
a lot of ordinary workers that they have, they have
(25:32):
some justification in thinking that, ah, it's not working for
them anymore, that governments are sort of failing to, I guess,
improve their lives.
S3 (25:41):
Well, I would say if you think about what's happened since, uh,
the majority, not all of them, but the majority of
Millennial and Gen Z have come onto the voters roll.
So we're talking about 2010 onwards. What have they seen?
One thing they have seen is that at this election,
Albanese could be the first prime minister re-elected since John
(26:02):
Howard in 2004. So they've seen a lot of political
self-indulgence with the two majors shooting their leaders. They've seen
a lot of, um, politicking with regards to huge issues
that concerned them. That includes climate, right. But it also
includes housing. So, you know, when Bill shorten took a
(26:24):
significant housing package to the election, they witnessed how the
other side politicised that. Now the coalition got away with it.
They got that sugar hit, which was that wind. But
what they did is they further entrenched The disconnect between
them and young Australians, because now most of these young
Australians saw that in 2019. They're not blind. They don't
(26:45):
forget what you did in an election. And again, we
see it this election. They're trying to weaponize some notion
that labor wants to, you know, put bringing negative gearing. Again.
If you're trying to appeal to young people and you're
going back to your your the tools that you used
in 2019 to try to win seats in this at
this election, how do you think that's going to bounce
(27:07):
around amongst Gen Z.
S2 (27:08):
Yes. Take your point. But but didn't the 2019 election
just sort of terrify labor because Bill shorten did take
a more ambitious agenda that people say they want? Yes. And,
and lower class, you know, lower income voters, um, are
turned against labor. Yes. So is that the reason.
S3 (27:26):
In certain in certain constituencies. So the trends in parts
of western Sydney and outer western Melbourne and outer northern
Melbourne and so on have been there for a decade.
So historically, we've seen this gradual erosion of the primary
vote in what was once safe seats.
S2 (27:43):
Yes.
S3 (27:44):
So that trend was already underway. 2019 was really a
tactical win by the coalition in particular seats which these
issues were going to resonate. So negative gearing was really
prominent as an issue in the federal seat of Chisholm,
for example, where we have high numbers of people who
live there who have a property there, negative gear, um,
(28:04):
mining communities. So again, you know, weaponizing um, Labor's climate
policy at the time, um, it worked really well within
electorates that relied on coal as an industry. Again, tactical wins.
And it was a tight result.
S2 (28:20):
It was. But the review from memory said that overall,
you know, obviously marginal seats. That is where it matters. Overall,
you had people who the policies of negative gearing, franking
credits were going to benefit actually, you know, moving away
from labor and the people who actually were in higher
income seats that might be affected by these policies. Move
(28:40):
towards labor. It must have been a devastating result. Yeah. Correct. Yeah. Correct.
S3 (28:45):
And it's um, but again, you know, 2019.
S2 (28:48):
I guess what I'm getting at. Does labor have to
be as cautious as this this government has been. That's
the lesson. They seem to have taken over a little
bit of this. No loses a little bit of that.
And you're saying those are Band-Aids that aren't actually appealing
to more traditional heartland people in heartland? They have to pick.
S3 (29:05):
Who's going to win and they have to pick who's
going to lose. And that's unfortunately part of democracy and politics, right.
And trying to be a friend to everyone is not
going to work. Um, political movements are born and die
off the back of that doctrine. Right? Which is you
pick who you're going to represent and you and you
represent them ruthlessly. And yes, you're going to upset people.
S2 (29:26):
Um, neither party wants to upset anyone at this election. Correct.
S3 (29:29):
Which is fundamentally the problem.
S2 (29:30):
All right. Good. Um, I haven't got much more time.
I wanted to ask you about, um, The I guess
that the election is we are now. I mean, just
one thing you could say in Labor's defense. I mean,
they would say that, um, obviously they've got a very
working class background in a prime minister. Anthony Albanese, treasurer, treasurer,
(29:53):
Jim Chalmers. Logan. Boy. Yeah. They talk in, in, in a,
in a, you know, everyday way. They're not sort of
snooty in any way. And they would also say, look
what we've done, we've done uh, we've, we've made some
er reforms. We've, we've increased pay for low paid workers
in aged care, child care. We've uh, we've done, you know,
(30:13):
something a lot more than the, than the former government
has done on climate change. We've, you know, they've done
they rebates for electricity, improving the, um, incentives. You know,
I mean, there's a long list of things that are
actually should help everyday people critique that. For me I
mean communications.
S3 (30:35):
So the packaging, packaging, all that up and making sure
that the, the the parts of Australia you want voting for,
you are aware of this because when we run groups,
they're not aware of it. And because it's these policies
impact small groups of Australians in different parts of Australia. Uh,
there isn't an overall overarching, um, I would say umbrella
(30:59):
that keeps it all together as a, as a narrative
that they can sell to the Australian people, that they've
done what they can in the middle of a inflationary crisis,
which is not entirely in their control.
S2 (31:10):
Yes.
S3 (31:10):
Right.
S2 (31:11):
So is it just communications though? Cos I mean, earlier
you were talking about, uh, and you know, there's other
studies that show this too, that, that, that a lot
of people want more significant change. Um, and do you
whether it's whether it's fundamental tax reform, for instance, which
is one that's often raised or whether it is a
more distributive, uh, policy? I mean, is it just communications
(31:34):
or is there something more fundamental.
S3 (31:35):
If we're talking about how they were to. So there's
there's two parts to this. There's the first part, which
is okay, you did what you did as a government.
You didn't sell it properly. Yeah. They're doing a pretty
good job now. And we can see the fruits of that. Um,
and then secondly, you need to do something a bit
beyond that to survive as a movement going forward. Right.
(31:57):
So if you don't like sitting around with your low
30s primary vote and sometimes in the high 20s, and
you want to change that, the only solution to that,
and to broaden the electoral appeal of the Labour Party,
is to tackle significant reform that makes this this emerging
generation feel they have political representation, genuinely political representation. Um,
(32:19):
and if they do that, I think the circumstances will improve.
S2 (32:22):
Okay, let's get to the campaign. Um, we're a little
bit over a week, uh, out, uh, and I think
I saw you quoted saying, look, you've hardly ever seen the, uh,
this happen before in terms of the collapse of the
coalition support and in your polling. Please talk about it
that the primary vote of the coalition has declined significantly.
(32:42):
Nine points? Yes, but Labor's only up a couple of points,
I think. So what's happening happened in this election? It
does seem to be a big change from when you were,
you know, talking at the at the start of the year, February.
S3 (32:55):
That's right. So we we're seeing again these generations we've
been talking about younger Australians largely under the under the
age of 45. They behave politically very different to older Australians.
So the Gen X vote, for example, the two party
preferred vote for the Labor Party, there is 52. The
primary vote amongst Gen Xers for labor is 36. It's
(33:16):
the same for the coalition 36. Greens are like in
the low teens, very, very traditional, very, very predictable. Boomers
are really good for the coalition. Then when we move
to Gen Z, the biggest primary vote is green 33.
This is the next track. These seats are, um, at
(33:37):
a marginal regional electorates.
S2 (33:39):
These are 20 seats you're tracking through the election for
News Corp. News Corp okay.
S3 (33:43):
And the biggest. Yeah the Greens are winning that in
primary vote. And two party preferred vote obviously for the
Labor Party through the roof. Mhm. But amongst millennials again
very similar story. Two party preferred vote for the Labor
Party is is through the roof. Um 60%. Close to 60%
as well. So very very different constituencies. Um and at
the same time the coalition was relying on these types
(34:07):
of voters because there are younger Australians that do vote
for the conservative side of politics and were on their
pile over the last 18 months, um, have started jumping
off because there's no economic plan coming from the Dutton camp,
and they're going to minor parties, and that's why we've
seen that sort of 9% drop and only and labor
(34:27):
only picks up a fraction of it. And that's that
could be something else going on there from from a Um,
a voter's perspective. Um, and they're going to minor parties.
And of course, the preference, once you lose a vote,
you don't always get it all back. Yeah. And that
that completely inflates the two party preferred vote for the
Labor Party.
S2 (34:43):
Alright. So do you think we're going to go into
an era? Last election was remarkable by the number of independent,
you know that that we've got pretty much now a
third of the electorate voting for labor, a third voting
for the coalition and a third voting for other, which
was just unheard of, you know, a generation ago. Is
that going to be embedded at this election? Do you
think that's going to be the same thing going to
(35:04):
happen and we're going to go forward? Yeah, I think
there's anything wrong with that.
S3 (35:07):
No, I think that's from a from a most Australians
will tell you that's a good thing. So when we
survey uh, Australians about what do they want a minority government, 45%
say yes. They kind of like the idea. Yes. So,
you know, in 2010, we had, um, uh, about eight
seats that were non-classical contests. So that's seats that the
(35:30):
AC IC defines as someone some other entity is contesting
the seat besides the two major parties, whether it could
be green or independent or whatever it is in 2022
that had ballooned out to well over 25. I think
at this election will be well over into the 30s.
Seats that went to preferences in 2010, just over 80.
(35:52):
Over 130in 2022. I think all but 1 or 2
are going to get preferences at this election.
S2 (35:58):
All right.
S3 (35:58):
All right. So this is the change.
S2 (36:00):
Yeah I saw that in February. You predicted a are
a labor minority government. Yes. A little bit out a
week before the election. What are you predicting now?
S3 (36:10):
Still probably that, um, it's still you could still it's
plausible to see that labor could lose seats to the
coalition and maybe to independents. But the number of seats
that are now, um, could be possibly lost are much smaller.
And there's also the outside chance it's probably a 7030 thing. Right.
So Right to 70% minority labor government, 30% majority labor
(36:33):
government at this stage, and the outside chance that Labour
picks up some seats at the expense of the coalition
and then, uh, coalition loses not only seats, 1 or
2 seats to labor through that, um, that gain that
I just touched on but also to independents federal seat
(36:53):
of Wannon Monash. Uh, Bradfield. There's a lot of contests
out there. There's a lot of contests out there.
S2 (36:59):
2 or 3 seats you'll really be watching on election
night to see what's going on. That will be indicative
of something. Yeah.
S3 (37:05):
So there's three contests underway. There is the contest between
the coalition and and and the teal or independents. Yes.
There's the contest between the Greens and Labor and there's
the contest between labor and the coalition. They're the three
main contests. There's. Yeah, sure. Okay. Labor might be in
trouble with some independents somewhere else, but that's not the
main the main game at the moment.
S2 (37:25):
So a couple of seats you'll be really watching Bradfield.
S3 (37:28):
Bradfield that teal independent and probably one as well.
S2 (37:31):
Yeah. That's a. Victorian.
S3 (37:33):
Victorian seat.
S2 (37:33):
Yep. Independent.
S3 (37:34):
Yep.
S2 (37:35):
Independent coalition.
S3 (37:35):
Yeah. And then, um, I'll be looking at Brisbane, federal
seat of Brisbane, to see how the Greens are faring
against labor there and to a lesser extent, the coalition
because that's a three way contest. And then of course
traditional seats. It's McEwen in Melbourne and uh, seat like
I would say Paterson and Robertson in New South Wales.
S2 (37:56):
Alright. Thank you. I should ask you, did you ever
have any ambition to go into politics yourself? Zero. Why
is that?
S3 (38:02):
Not interested ever.
S2 (38:04):
Really?
S3 (38:05):
No. I wanted to serve.
S2 (38:06):
Okay. Yeah. Politicians don't serve.
S3 (38:09):
Um, because I was exposed to their lifestyle. And I
worked for for for them for such a long time.
As the more senior I became, the less attracted I
became to the job. I just felt like, um. And
near the end of my previous career, I just thought
there's probably a better way I could actually contribute to this.
So hence I'm in Redbridge.
S2 (38:30):
Thank you so much for your time. Enjoyed it.
S3 (38:32):
Thanks.
S1 (38:34):
That was political strategist Corrs Samaras being interviewed by senior
writer Gai Alcorn on the latest Good Weekend talks coming soon.
We chat with the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman. If you
enjoyed this episode, please remember to subscribe, rate and comment
wherever you get your podcasts and keep tuning in for
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(38:56):
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Talks is produced by Konrad Marshall and edited by Tim Mummery,
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(39:17):
executive producer, Tom McKendrick is head of audio and Greg
Callahan is the acting editor of Good Weekend.
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