February 21, 2025 • 7 mins
Talks over ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine have begun with a meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia. Efforts to secure a ceasefire have accelerated since Donald Trump returned to the White House, and re-established contact with Vladimir Putin. How will Trump negotiate with the Russian President? Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, author of 'Punishing Putin', joins host Stephen Carroll to discuss.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and
this is Here's Why, where we take one news story
and explain it in just a few minutes with our
experts here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will
have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled, and
it will take me no longer than one day.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
I know exactly what to say to each of them.
I got along with very well with him. It was
a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made
headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet,
Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead
to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
We have the perfect deal maker at the table from
a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin
and Zolinsky.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America
and Russia's top diplomats in Saudi paving the way for
face to face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.
Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called
(01:15):
Punishing Putin, on the financial measures the West has taken
against Moscow, joins me. Now for more, Stephanie. First of all,
what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in
very jarring circumstances. Despite Putin invading Ukraine and killing and
maiming hundreds of thousands of people, Trump has mostly spoken
of Putin in positive terms. They had a ninety minute
call last week, the first contact between a US president
and Putin since twenty twenty one, and Trump was in
(01:51):
admiration of Putin. During his first term. Remember, his administration
rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly
under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisors.
So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken, you know,
of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Has Trump given Putin advantage by promising to move quickly on.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
This Unfortunately, Yes, after some initial talk of ramping up
sanctions on Russia if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war,
he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal.
Trump just recently said that a third rate deal maker
could have ended this war. Three years ago and actually
blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It
(02:35):
was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, of course, it's easy
to do a deal if you agree to all of
Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can
sign up to, and it's not a deal that Europe
is ready to support either. You know, Trumpet administration officials
have already seated key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have
(02:57):
even begun. You know, say NATO members for Ukraine is
off the table, and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine to
regain its twenty fourteen borders. So those are things that
might be part of an eventual agreement. But the idea
of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations start
(03:17):
doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an extraordinary
shift for the US administration after three years of isolating Russia.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump
of Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get
into those negotiations.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that
NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, ceding territory
to Russia. We don't know how much. I think the
key sticking point will be this tripwire. For some people
call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to
send troops to back that up, but said that they
(03:56):
need US assurances to support or any operation. Already, the
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvoff has said that Russia cannot
agree to European and troops in Ukraine. You know, this
is a key demand of the Russians that they do
not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine,
(04:18):
even if it's not formally NATO.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Now. Donald trumpasaid that Ukraine will be involved in later talks,
But how much leverage can present Vlashomir Zelenski have in
these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being
established without him, right.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyad. Trump has
said that he will be included later, But I think
the concern is that a lot of things will be
agreed without the Ukrainians participation. I think in reality Zelensky
has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on US and
European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force without
(04:57):
US military logistics and support, has already started talking about
the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key Russian
talking point. Putin has said that Zelenski is an illegitimate leader.
He was elected in twenty nineteen and they haven't held
elections because of martial law in the war. But the
(05:18):
idea of holding an election now with the country at
war is unrealistic. You know, how do you secure polling stations,
How do soldiers in the trenches vote? What about the
six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, And if they
lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are barred from leaving
the country would be able to leave. So how do
(05:38):
you negotiate? How do you arrange elections? You know, in
that case, they'd have to change the law. I think
Trump has demanded also that Ukraine seed fifty percent of
its critical mineral resources, not only for future security assurances,
but to reimburse the US for past military and financial aid,
(05:59):
which is extraordinary demand that Zelensky has so far resisted.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Your book looked at the financial sanctums that the West
is imposed on Putin because of this, will they be
a key tool in these negotiations as well as it
comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Absolutely, and here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that
Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one
of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because
they have been painful. As I detailed in my book
Punishing Putin. Those G seven economic sanctions on Russia cost
(06:36):
the country hundreds of billions of dollars, and Putin wants
sanctions relief, I think primarily to regroup and rearm. And
they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the
negotiating table. Whether or not they're going to be used
effectively remains to be seen. There had been some noise
from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those
(06:57):
sanctions to possibly extra more concessions from Putin, which would
have been a smart way to use them. Instead, you
have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation
with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given
that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of
the world.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, thank you Stephanie's book Punishing Putin.
Is out now. For more explanations like this from our
team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world,
search for quick take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg
Business App. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is here's why. I'll
be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and
this is Here's Why, where we take one news story
and explain it in just a few minutes with our
experts here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will
have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled, and
it will take me no longer than one day.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
I know exactly what to say to each of them.
I got along with very well with him. It was
a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made
headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet,
Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead
to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
We have the perfect deal maker at the table from
a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin
and Zolinsky.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America
and Russia's top diplomats in Saudi paving the way for
face to face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.
Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called
(01:15):
Punishing Putin, on the financial measures the West has taken
against Moscow, joins me. Now for more, Stephanie. First of all,
what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in
very jarring circumstances. Despite Putin invading Ukraine and killing and
maiming hundreds of thousands of people, Trump has mostly spoken
of Putin in positive terms. They had a ninety minute
call last week, the first contact between a US president
and Putin since twenty twenty one, and Trump was in
(01:51):
admiration of Putin. During his first term. Remember, his administration
rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly
under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisors.
So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken, you know,
of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Has Trump given Putin advantage by promising to move quickly on.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
This Unfortunately, Yes, after some initial talk of ramping up
sanctions on Russia if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war,
he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal.
Trump just recently said that a third rate deal maker
could have ended this war. Three years ago and actually
blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It
(02:35):
was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, of course, it's easy
to do a deal if you agree to all of
Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can
sign up to, and it's not a deal that Europe
is ready to support either. You know, Trumpet administration officials
have already seated key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have
(02:57):
even begun. You know, say NATO members for Ukraine is
off the table, and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine to
regain its twenty fourteen borders. So those are things that
might be part of an eventual agreement. But the idea
of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations start
(03:17):
doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an extraordinary
shift for the US administration after three years of isolating Russia.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump
of Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get
into those negotiations.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that
NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, ceding territory
to Russia. We don't know how much. I think the
key sticking point will be this tripwire. For some people
call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to
send troops to back that up, but said that they
(03:56):
need US assurances to support or any operation. Already, the
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvoff has said that Russia cannot
agree to European and troops in Ukraine. You know, this
is a key demand of the Russians that they do
not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine,
(04:18):
even if it's not formally NATO.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Now. Donald trumpasaid that Ukraine will be involved in later talks,
But how much leverage can present Vlashomir Zelenski have in
these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being
established without him, right.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyad. Trump has
said that he will be included later, But I think
the concern is that a lot of things will be
agreed without the Ukrainians participation. I think in reality Zelensky
has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on US and
European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force without
(04:57):
US military logistics and support, has already started talking about
the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key Russian
talking point. Putin has said that Zelenski is an illegitimate leader.
He was elected in twenty nineteen and they haven't held
elections because of martial law in the war. But the
(05:18):
idea of holding an election now with the country at
war is unrealistic. You know, how do you secure polling stations,
How do soldiers in the trenches vote? What about the
six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, And if they
lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are barred from leaving
the country would be able to leave. So how do
(05:38):
you negotiate? How do you arrange elections? You know, in
that case, they'd have to change the law. I think
Trump has demanded also that Ukraine seed fifty percent of
its critical mineral resources, not only for future security assurances,
but to reimburse the US for past military and financial aid,
(05:59):
which is extraordinary demand that Zelensky has so far resisted.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Your book looked at the financial sanctums that the West
is imposed on Putin because of this, will they be
a key tool in these negotiations as well as it
comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Absolutely, and here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that
Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one
of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because
they have been painful. As I detailed in my book
Punishing Putin. Those G seven economic sanctions on Russia cost
(06:36):
the country hundreds of billions of dollars, and Putin wants
sanctions relief, I think primarily to regroup and rearm. And
they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the
negotiating table. Whether or not they're going to be used
effectively remains to be seen. There had been some noise
from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those
(06:57):
sanctions to possibly extra more concessions from Putin, which would
have been a smart way to use them. Instead, you
have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation
with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given
that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of
the world.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, thank you Stephanie's book Punishing Putin.
Is out now. For more explanations like this from our
team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world,
search for quick take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg
Business App. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is here's why. I'll
be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.
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